NFL Antepost Preview 2013 - Falcons can soar to the Super Bowl

The 2013 NFL season is right upon us now & it looks like it could be one to savour with several teams making moves to challenge for the Super Bowl right now & the usual powerhouses still fielding strong sides. We're taking a look here at some of the best antepost bets for the season that will culminate in the Super Bowl on the first weekend in February 2014. Last year we gave the San Francisco 49ers to be the NFC champions at 7/1 & they duly obliged so hopefully we can pick out some more value here.

AFC

Denver Broncos

This year everybody has been talking about the Denver Broncos who start with legendary passer Peyton Manning for the 2nd year after his move across from Indianapolis after a serious injury & it's easy to see why the Broncos have been the talk of the league with several big moves. The addition of the prolific Wes Welker at receiver was probably the most eye-catching move; he's had over 1,000 receiving yards in 5 seasons & Manning will relish having him to pass to. Welker is 32 though & that's probably why the Patriots let him go, the Broncos are going all out for this season & that could put the pressure on from a very early stage. They've also added to their defense at the deep positions with the signings of the veteran safety Quentin Jammer & the excellent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback. We really like Rodgers-Cromartie who probably wasn't used to best effect at all times in his two years in Philadelphia but he was great at Arizona previously & could be a key player here.

(Von Miller is suspended for 6 games & that could cost Denver dearly)

It isn't all good for Denver though with their running game looking light now Willis McGahee has departed, it is a passing league now though so maybe they'll get away with it & just because teams know they'll pass a lot doesn't mean they'll be able to stop Peyton anyway! A bigger loss to the Broncos was that of their ace defensive end Elvis Dumervil who ended up going to Baltimore in part due to a late submission of paperwork by his agent. The worst news though was the suspension for 6 games (of their 16 game season) of their star defensive player, outside linebacker Von Miller for a substance violation. Miller is one of the league's very best players & with him missing it could mean the Bronco's don't end up winning quite enough games to be a top seed in the playoffs. The AFC West should still be a formality for them but without home advantage through the post-season their odds look short enough for the AFC & the Super Bowl so are reluctantly passed over.

Houston Texans

We were keen on outright glory for the Houston Texans last year & not too much has changed to think they shouldn't be right there again this year. They amassed an impressive 11 wins from their first 12 games last season before slumping at the end to 3 losses in 4 & missing the AFC's top seed that would have kept them at home throughout the playoffs which is key as they're a dome side meaning inclement winter weather can really harm their chances. Some labelled the Texans as 'soft' but we're not sure it was a choke & it's no coincidence the slide came when their dominant inside linebacker Brian Cushing was injured, we're certain if he'd stayed fit the story would have had a different outcome.

(The return of Brian Cushing from injury is great news for the Texans)

The Texans have some of the best players in key positions in the league with Arian Foster an elite running back, Andre Johnson an ace wide receiver, Brian Cushing as already mentioned & the 2012 defensive player fo the year J.J. Watts at defensive end. Add to that a very good offensive line, including maybe the game's best left tackle Duane Brown, & it's difficult to see how they won't end up close to 13 wins this year but many doubt the capabilities of the quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub doesn't have a reputation for being a 'clutch' player, meaning he doesn't come up with the plays in key situations often enough, but he's definitely highly talented as evidenced by him leading the league in key passer stats in 2009 (passing yards, completions, yards per game & attempts). If defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips can keep his young & hugely talented defense firing Schaub may not have to improve much anyway as they should always be in with a chance whilst keeping their opposition's scoring opportunities low.

At 7/1 to win the AFC Houston seem to be the value picks as we think the New England Patriots may eventually start to slow this year after being exceptional for so long & the Broncos are just to short in price. Of the other AFC contenders according to the bookmakers we don't think the Ravens will even win their division (we like the Bengals in the AFC North so that also rules out Pittsburgh who could end up with a losing season) & 2013 is too early for the improving Colts, Dolphins & Chiefs.

NFC

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC looks stronger than the AFC this year with powerhouses like the San Francisco 49ers & Green Bay plus the impressive & improving Seattle Seahawks & always dangerous New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears but the only team we want to side with is the Atlanta Falcons.

(Steven Jackson - last piece in the Atlanta Falcons' jigsaw?)

The Falcons are just scary in the passing game with a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan helped out by an amazing receiver corps of the ever youthful Tony Gonzalez at tight end & Julio Jones & Roddy White at wide receiver. The latter two thrive in the NFL with the rules helping their style of play by very much favouring them against the cornerbacks who will be trying to stop them - it's possible we could see Matt Ryan throw for career high numbers this year with them to aim at. The big improvement on offense has been the capture of Steven Jackson from the Rams at running back & he should mean that they can run the ball & use up the clock once they establish their now customary leads in games. Getting pegged back late on due to their inability to pound the ball up the middle really hurt Atlanta last year & it could be key to them getting their number one seed this year & staying at the Georgia Dome where they are so dominant.

Atlanta have also tried to improve their defense this year & taken a gamble on the now veteran defensive end Osi Umenyiora from the Giants but if he stays fit he'll add another dimension to their play bringing real aggression & pressure on opposition QB's - along with Justin Babineaux at defensive tackle they could have a lot of sacks this year. They've also looked to upgrade at cornerback with their first two draft selections & Desmond Trufant looks like he could thrive in the professional game, with their safety positions already solid look out for a much improved defensive showing this year.

Again like the Texans in the AFC Atlanta just look the value here with Seattle & San Francisco too short as joint favourites considering they'll have to play each other twice in the regular season meaning dropped games & Green Bay need to improve a little defensively even though their offense remains incredible. Take big odds of 9/1 for Atlanta to win the NFC & even bigger odds of 18/1 for them to collect their Super Bowl rings in early 2014.

Selections:
Houston Texans to win AFC at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC at 9/1 (General) & to win Super Bowl at 18/1 (Paddy Power)

Super Bowl XLVII - Super San Francisco can batter Baltimore

This year's excellent NFL season comes to a head with an intriguing & exciting match-up between two teams coached by the Harbaugh brothers as John's Baltimore Ravens represent the AFC & Jim's San Francisco 49ers come in as NFC champions. Both teams have plenty going for them as you would expect for sides that have reached this stage, we're taking a look at the strengths & weaknesses of both teams as we seek out the value from the mass of betting markets available.

Of course we'll miss the NFL action from a sporting & betting perspective (regular followers will have noted regular profitable weekends through the season) but you can keep up with all our other bets including the English football, horse racing (including Cheltenham Festival) & other bets by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button above.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

(The 49ers Colin Kaepernick aims to keep his dream story going in the Super Bowl)

The Ravens have come through an incredibly tough post-season schedule by winning road games against the Super Bowl favourites at the time Denver Broncos then New England Patriots & that entitles them to respect as on paper this is just as tough but no more so than those games at Mile High  Foxboro. Their regular season form was less impressive with not an overly tough schedule, they lost only two of their first 11 but then limped home with just one win in 5 & have done well to rally as they looked all out of steam. The return of their inspirational, & somewhat controversial, linebacker & leader Ray Lewis for the playoffs has clearly given them a lift & having him & Terrell Suggs on the field has improved them defensively. It has however been the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco that has most impressed with him making great decisions all though the playoffs with 8 touchdowns thrown & zero interceptions. We're not big Flacco fans here as we're unsure he does enough considering the receiver talent he has to aim for but he's been great in recent games with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith the beneficiaries with touchdowns & receptions.

Running back Ray Rice was as consistent as ever this year but with Flacco's recent play & the emergence of Bernard Pierce as a backup he's maybe not quite as key as he has been in previous seasons & that's maybe for the best as the 49ers are notoriously tough to run against & opposition teams gained just 94.2 yards per game on the ground against them on average. The 49ers are rock solid defensively & have been for some time now but this season with the addition of Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, after Alex Smith missed out a couple of games with injury, they've become an exciting offensive force. Kaepernick has added in the best qualities that many of the college quarterbacks coming into the NFL have with his ability to take off & make plays with his feet rather than just sit in the pocket & pass.

(Ray Lewis's 16 year reign of defensive terror comes to an end this Sunday)

Kaepernick is hardly a slouch though when it comes to passing with his 8.3 yards per completion being a league high for a passer with more than 50 attempts, it's his running ability & the all round running threat of the team that sets up those big passing plays. Michael Crabtree is the main man at receiver for the 49ers & he's been great in the playoffs whilst Vernon Davis eventually came to life in last week's win against the Falcons with 5 receptions, 106 yards & a touchdown. We love Vernon here at Like Buying Money & would love to see him with a big game although his odds for scoring are a little too short for us, Frank Gore looks a better alternative & odds of 7/1 for him to get the first touchdown look big, he's scored consistently through the season & bagged 3 TDs over his last two games vs Green Bay & Atlanta. The 49ers don't have the receiver options that the Ravens do but with Baltimore not having a dominating cornerback they may get away with it & the veteran Randy Moss could pop up as he has done before in many a big game.

On defense the 49ers are impeccable, ranking 4th against the pass & run & conceding just 17.1 points per game during the regular season & there's no reason to think that high level of performance should drop here with NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis's all-action games being a key component of the league's best front 7. In the secondary San Francisco aren't quite so dominant but their pass ruch makes up for it making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find the space to pass effectively & Flacco hasn't necessarily got the evasiveness of someone like the Steelers' Ben Roethelisberger. The 49ers can stifle the Ravens with their defense, pound them with their running game & use the run plus Kaepernick's ability to take off to set up the big passing plays & this looks like proving one game too many for John Harbaugh's men.

The game takes place at the Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints, & the 49ers already have a victory here this season - that can help inspire them to a convincing victory over the Ravens who may have used up all of their post-season luck & performance with two big underdog victories already. Back the San Francisco 49ers to show why they are feared by every team & for them to cover a makeable -3.5 handicap spread at odds of 20/21.

(Linebacker Aldon Smith is a live outsider at 66/1 for the MVP award)

The Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) award is always a big betting heat & with the dominance of quarterbacks getting the prize it's no surprise to see Kaepernick & Flacco as the 1st & 2nd favourites at 6/4 & 3/1. As we feel the 49ers are going to win we have to go with Kaepernick as the award has only once not gone to a player on the winning team & that was 42 years ago but for a small wager it may be worth getting on young linebacker Aldon Smith at huge odds of 66/1 to spring a shock. Smith is a veritable 'sack monster' who gained 19.5 sacks in the regular season to sit behind only the incredible J.J. Watt & he got himself 5.5 in one game vs the Bears, he's been quiet on the sacks front in his last few games but we think he could come to life on the big stage & terrorise Joe Flacco if given the chance. Ray Lewis would be a sentimental choice (for some at least...) for the award in his final game after such an illustrious career but the odds available (12/1 at best & shorter in general) are very short for a player in his position.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with -3.5 points at 20/21 (William Hill & SportingBet)
Colin Kaepernick to win Super Bowl MVP award at 6/4 (William Hill)
Aldon Smith to win Super Bowl MVP award at 66/1 (SportingBet, Stan James & BetVictor)
Frank Gore to score first touchdown at 7/1 (Various)

NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Divisional Round - Broncos to serve Ravens up a dish of Deja Vu

We're onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs & the two Saturday games are previewed here as Denver & San Francisco look to home field advantage & a rested squad whilst Baltimore & Green Bay look to carry the momentum of their wins last week. In last week's matches we were just middling, getting the Bengals @ Texans unders & Baltimore to win HT/FT fairly easily but having quarterback injury let us down in the other games (Christian Ponder & RGIII), hopefully injuries won't be as key in this week's games.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

These two sides meet again after facing off in week 15, in that game Denver basically humiliated Baltimore in their own stadium going up 34-3 in the 4th quarter before the Ravens responded with 10 consolation points late on - this will be even tougher as the Ravens try to overcome the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

(Broncos heart throb Eric Decker looks overpriced to haul in the first touchdown)

The Broncos now have outright favouritism for the Super Bowl with most firms & it's easy to see why as they've had a tremendous run winning their final 11 games, often impressively, after losing 3 of their first 5, admittedly to some very smart opponents. Peyton Manning has conclusively proved any doubters wrong, showing that he is fully recovered from the major surgery undertaken last year, now including the arm strength that understandably took a couple of games to get back. This is a side that got to the playoffs in 2011 (& won a game!) with Tim Tebow under centre - to have one of the very best quarterbacks of all time instead it now seems blindingly obvious that we should all have been backing Denver at the start of the season! The Broncos match up their outstanding quarterback play with some explosive defense that ranks 2nd overall in yards conceded per game & is outstanding against both the run & pass (ranking 3rd against each). They have great players through the defense with Champ Bailey one of the all time great cornerbacks, Von Miller is arguably the best defender in the league & Elvis Dumervil is a great defensive end, they look sure to be able to deal with anything the Ravens throw at them.

We were keen on the Ravens to beat Indianapolis last week but that was because the Colts were some way short of being as good as their win record suggested, this is a different proposition & it seems difficult to see how they'll keep pace with a team they were so outplayed by just a month ago. It looks like they will be prepared to throw some bombs downfield though if last week's game is anything to go by where Anquan Boldin gained 145 receiving yards, all coming in the 2nd half of the game, those deep passes are what Joe Flacco does best as he undeniably has a strong arm although he could look instead to the younger Torrey Smith this time. The Ravens' vaunted defense hasn't been as strong this year, with injuries & the ravages of age taking their toll, this looks likely to be legendary linebacker Ray Lewis's final game, he did well on comeback last week but may feel the effects of being out from week 6 onwards in this game. Ray Rice & young backup running back Bernard Pierce may be in the game plan to begin with but if the Ravens fall behind they'll be forced to pass & we can see Flacco getting sacked & throwing multiple interceptions as the Broncos force home a crushing win. Take Denver with -9 points to win this game, they beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore & can at least match that here. Looking at the touchdown scorers it looks like Broncos receiver Eric Decker is overpriced at 8/1 to get the first TD, he's their leading touchdown scorer with 13 & bagged himself 5 in the last 3 games so is red hot at the moment.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

This game is a rematch of these two teams first game of the season but takes place at the 49ers' Candlestick Park rather than Green Bay's famous Lambeau Field, these are arguably the NFC's top two teams so promises to be a great contest.

(Colin Kaepernick could be on the run for the 49ers)

The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game last time round only to end up just pipped to getting to the Super Bowl by the New York Giants, they'll be hoping for better this time around & need to start off by beating the Packers but they have somewhat controversially ditched quarterback Alex Smith for the still relatively untested Colin Kaepernick who now faces his biggest challenge by some margin. Kaepernick came into the side in week 10 after Smith was concussed & that means he's played just 7 full games yet faces off today against the Packers' turnover creating defense & has to keep pace with one of the league's best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. In the medium to long term we think bringing Kaepernick in is a good decision for the 49ers as he definitely has more scope than Alex Smith & has an added dimension of being a great athlete able to take off at any time with the ball, however in the short term it could prove costly here as this is a team that were championship contenders with Smith & his experience & decision making could have been crucial especially as they remain foremost a hard running, hard defense team.

Frank Gore is the 49ers star attacker & he put up his 6th 1,000+ rushing yards season this time around, the fact that 4 of his 5 lowest rushing games of the season coincided with the 4 losses San Francisco sustained shows just how important he is to the team. The Packers are only average at stopping the run & it's surely the 49ers best chance of success as even if Kaepernick is on his game he doesn't really have a lot of targets to pass to & seems to have somewhat zoned in exclusively on Michael Crabtree in recent weeks, top tight end Vernon Davis has gained just 6 receptions in their last 6 games. Of course the 49ers' greatest strength is on defense where they are a tour de force against the pass & run, ranking 2nd in points conceded per game (just 17.1), the leader is 2nd season linebacker Aldon Smith who came up with 19.5 sacks but the whole front 7 are outstanding & almost certainly the best in football at the moment.

The Packers' offensive line has been a weakness for some time & that 49er pressure is going to mean Rodgers will get repeatedly hit in the game, yet he's been used to that all season & yet still manages to post outstanding numbers, rarely panicking & throwing poor passes whilst under intense pressure by defenders. Rodgers seems to know when to take a sack too which remains a skill many quarterbacks still haven't acquired (Tony cough Romo cough!), he's got a great set of receivers to pass to & if he can escape the pressure he'll make some big plays in this one with so many 49ers on pass rush. Randall Cobb has really established himself in his 2nd season & got 80 receptions on the year, staying as Rodgers' most dependable receiver all season, Jordy Nelson is back & fit after missing a couple of games & James Jones will be looking to add to his huge haul of 14 TD receptions - they can definitely hurt San Fran.

(Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson can swing this in Green Bay's favour)

The Packers' key players in this one may however be on defense where they need to force Colin Kaepernick into making the mistakes that will finish the 49ers. A.J. Hawk & Clay Matthews will put him under pressure & they now have their outstanding veteran cornerback Charles Woodson back to make the plays in the backfield, he made a real difference against the Vikings last week & may prove crucial here. The 49ers were our pre-season pick to make the Super Bowl for the NFC but we're abandoning them here as we see Rodgers v Kaepernick as pivotal & we have to side with the proven quantity, take Green Bay to win as 13/10 outsiders.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat Baltimore Ravens with -9 points handicap at 10/11 (Coral, William Hill & SkyBet)
Eric Decker to score first touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
Green Bay Packers to beat San Francisco 49ers at 13/10 (Boylesports, William Hill & Pinnacle)

NFL Wildcard Weekend - Seahawks & Redskins can go points mad

Sunday's NFL wildcard playoff games are both competitive affairs & although the Colts @ Ravens should be good we're really looking forward to the late game between Seattle & Washington. We're previewing both & have three betting selections that can make viewing even more enjoyable.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Baltimore with a great back story - they finished with just two wins last last season meaning they got the first draft pick & they selected Andrew Luck & allowed legendary quarterback Peyton Manning to move on, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia & no one gave them a chance of making the playoffs - yet here they are after ending up with an impressive 11&5 record.

(Dennis Pitta could offer some value as a first touchdown scorer)

When you look back through the Colts' schedule you would have to accept it was one of the easiest of any side this year & that of course helped them gain their impressive amount of wins but the impact of Andrew Luck's quarterback play shouldn't be underestimated. Luck has come in & formed great partnerships instantly, particularly with veteran receiver Reggie Wayne who looked like he may be slowing last year yet has put up big numbers this time around. Importantly Luck has looked composed when the Colts have fallen behind, & they have done so often with their ordinary defense, that's meant he's been able to pull off late wins that have made the difference & they nearly always remain with a chance even if a couple of scores behind.

We aren't great fans of the Ravens here but they might have the right kind of game to show up Indianapolis's deficiencies here especially if they can get their classy running back Ray Rice in the game as often as possible. Baltimore's defense has been feted for years but hasn't been anywhere near so scary this year as key players have started to show their age (it often happens suddenly in the NFL) & injuries have impacted too, & just like the Colts they have a lot of wins this year against pretty ordinary teams. The Ravens have been relying on passer Joe Flacco too often for our liking as he remains inconsistent even though his strong arm means he's always a threat to every team in the league. Flacco has Torrey Smith as an excellent deep threat with his speed & size but when he gets closer to the end zone the tight end Dennis Pitta is a top target & he looks overpriced at 12/1 to score the first touchdown. Surely though the Ravens' coordinators will have noticed how the Colts' run defense isn't strong enough & we can see them handing the ball off to Ray Rice for the entire game as they look to move the ball down the field safely. The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games & must be lacking a little confidence, the perfect antidote is to rely on their best player & Rice can help them lead from start to finish, the Colts run will come to an end so take Baltimore to lead at half time & full time for improved odds of 4/6.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Two of the league's impressive rookie quarterbacks face off in this one as Robert Griffin III & the Redskins host Russell Wilson & the Seahawks, both teams finished off the regular season in great form & this has the potential to be explosive.

(Russell Wilson & the Seahawks have been scoring for fun in recent games)

RG III possesses a top threat as a runner as well as when passing & that's helped them rank as the top team in terms of rushing yards this season, he's put up over 800 rushing yards & their rookie running back Alfred Morris has 1,613. That running game will be key here as Seattle have a very good defense but is slightly more vulnerable to the run than pass, their star cornerback Brandon Browner should be fit after injury too, meaning easy passing yards won't be there for Washington. On defense the Redskins got better towards the end of the season but they still remain too easy to pass against & they ranked 30th in passing yards against, DeAngelo Hall is decent at cornerback but doesn't have too many other great players in the secondary to help him out.

Seattle's Russell Wilson wasn't given much of a chance to be a success by plenty of pundits, he's slightly short for an NFL quarterback but he has improved all season & he had passer ratings of 100+ in 7 of  his last 8 games & also showed he is a serious running threat when he scored 3 rushing TDs in week 15 against Buffalo. Wilson's receiver corps are a dependable if unexplosive set & there were only 2 occasions all season where a receiver had a 100 yard receiving game for them all season. We do hoever love their running back Marshawn Lynch & he followed up  dozen TDs in 2011 with 11 this time & a huge 5.0 average yard per rushing attempt, he'll pound away at the Redskins defense & set up the pass plays. On defense the Seahawks are statistically very god, ranking 6th against the pass & 10th against the run, it may however be boosted by how difficult it is for opposing defenses to operate in Seattle due to the noise.

Washington have the home field advantage here & that could prove a crucial factor as Seattle are clearly a better side when they have the rabid & incredibly noisy fans behind them at CentuyLink Field making it difficult for opposing offenses to hear their play calling. The Seahawks probably deserve favouritism as they've beaten some top sides already this year (Packers, Patriots & 49ers), it's a tough game to call either way though & instead we'll take it to go over 46 points, the Redskins scored the 4th most points of any side in the regular season & Seattle went wild in the last few weeks scoring 170 points total in their last 4, Washington have also only limited opponents to less than 20 points 3 times all season.

Selections:
Over 46 points in Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins game at 10/11 (General)
Baltimore Ravens to be beating Indianapolis Colts at half time & full time at 4/6 (Various)
Dennis Pitta to score first touchdown in Colts @ Ravens game at 12/1 (William Hill)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Saturday - Vikings to keep pace with Packers

After 17 weeks of pounding regular season action the NFL playoffs are about to get underway, whilst New England, Denver, San Francisco & Atlanta manged to secure the top seeds & they avoid this wildcard weekend where the other 8 teams battle it out for the right to face those top seeds next week. It's a pretty good weekend of action with no 'dead certs' in the 4 games but we're looking at each of them starting with Saturday's two games here as we look to find the betting value.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

The first game we take a look at is between the slumping Houston Texans & the Cincinnati Bengals who've made the playoffs after winning 7 of their last 8 games to end with a 10&6 record.

(Matt Schaub will be looking for the win in his first ever post-season game)

Houston were our outright picks for Super Bowl glory at the start of the year & that was looking a pretty good bet as they assembled an 11&1 winning record by week 13 & looked set to claim top seed in the AFC & home advantage in their playoff games but they took a beating in Foxboro at the hands o the Patriots & seemed to suffer ending up losing twice more but this game may give them a real chance of rallying & getting a rematch with the Patriots. Although the Bengals look to be the team on the up when you take a look at the teams they've beaten it becomes a little less impressive with the three teams they've beaten with winning records all somewhat out of form at the time & the Bengals have been beating teams they should beat but losing to the teams they shouldn't for the past couple of seasons, they rarely seem to be able to spring a surprise against the stronger teams.

Houston have a side with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with J.J. Watt their defensive star & a strong candidate for the defensive player of the year award - Watt along with Antonio Smith get a lot of sacks & the Bengals' offensive line isn't great at protecting passer Andy Dalton, they've given up 46 sacks & rank 26th (of 32) in the category. On offense Houston have a good passer in Matt Schaub, he's not spectacular but has good fundamentals in all aspects of the game & is a good decision maker, he also has one of the league's best receivers in Andre Johnson to throw to & Johnson has at times looked close to his best this season, getting the AFC's offensive player of the month for November, it's a pity they don't really have depth at the position as they can become a little predictable. The rushing attack is where the Texans excel & Arian Foster is an exceptional running back who can get success against any side.

(Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have really stepped up to the mark for Cincinnati this season)

The Bengals have an exceptional talent in receiver A.J. Green & he'll be looking to take advantage of the Texans' secondary that is definitely the weak point of their defense & has even looked a little confused at times in recent weeks with blown coverages - they can't afford to do that as A.J. will be sure to take it to the house & add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Bengals are also pretty sharp on defense, ranking 6th in yards & 8th in points given up with a big improvement from week 10 onwards where they restricted opponents to 20 points or less in all of their last 8 games (although it has to be noted they didn't face any offensive powerhouses apart from maybe the Giants who were in & out all season). Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have been coming up with the sacks for the Bengals & although they allow too many themselves they rank 3rd in sacks gained on defense & will be targeting the Texans' rookie guard Ben Jones who could be a weak link. The Bengals don't really have anything to worry Houston on he ground, we're unconcerned with BenJarvus Gren-Ellis's running threat & Houston will be too & that'll mean their pass rush will be turned up to 11 & could prove the difference. We like he Texans to win but the point spread looks about right so we'll target the points total instead, Ladbrokes put it at 43.5 & 7 of Cinci's last 8 games have been 44 points or under & half of Houston's games haven't hit that either so the value has to be backing under 43.5 points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

We've an NFC North divisional match up in the late night game on Saturday as the Vikings travel to take on the Green Bay Packers - they only played this last week (in Minnesota) & the Vikings were victorious yet the Packers are this weekend's shortest priced team to win.

(Adrian Peterson's wonderful season could be drawing to a close but he'll give Green Bay plenty of trouble)

Home field advantage is clearly a big factor here & Green Bay prevailed 23-14 in the game here in week 13 & their only loss at Lambeau all year came in their first game of the season against the hard running 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is an awesome talent at quarterback & his refusal to focus too much on any one receiver means that opposing defenses struggle to lock down targets & add to that his ability to extend plays he comes out right near the top of the tree when assessing all NFL passers. Green Bay do allow Rodgers to get sacked too often (51 times this year) & it could lead to him getting injured at one point but it doesn't appear to have hurt them so far & they are excellent in the red zone, ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency when getting within 20 yards of the end zone. The Packers running game is also slightly improved this year although no individual back has been putting up big numbers, they're most likely to try to pass the ball anyway as that's where their weapons lie & the Vikings rank 24th against the pass.

The Vikings don't have the versatility of some teams but they do have an incredible running back in Adrian Peterson who has come back from major knee surgery to put up the 2nd biggest rushing yards season in league history. AP has also had a lot of success against the Packers in both games this season, running up big numbers even though the defense know the ball is likely to be handed off, he's also taken the  ball into the end zone for touchdowns 12 times this yea as well as moving the ball up the field with regularity. In terms of passing the Vikings clearly aren't as much of a threat although Christian Ponder has improved in his 2nd season, he is a little predictable though with Percy Harvin his favourite target apart from when in scoring range when Kyle Rudolph's number invariably gets called. Rudolph is a huge tight end & at 6"6 it doesn't matter who he goes up against he'll have a favourable match-up so he's an obvious target when in short yardage situations. Bad news for the Vikings this week is that Ponder's throwing arm is reportedly sore & that may mean they run even more often, that may not be a bad thing as Green Bay's defense is heavily reliant on causing turnovers through interceptions & running the ball eliminates that threat. Green Bay should score enough to win this game but they lost to Minnesota last week & only won by 9 in the previous game so take the Vikings with +9.5 points to win on the handicap/points spread.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)
Minnesota Vikings to beat Green Bay Packers with +9.5 point handicap (Paddy Power & 32Red)

NFL Week 16 - Colts can show Chiefs who's the Boss

Just two weeks of regular season games before the NFL playoffs & it looks like the cream has risen to the top in most divisions, we're looking at a couple of games where we think the odds make a wager worthwhile as we try to follow up the two odds against winners last Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City are on course to end up with the worst record in the league - thus ending up with the first pick in the draft whilst Indianapolis can seal a playoff spot with a win here & that should tell you all you need to know about the teams' motivation & the most likely winners here.

(T.Y. Hilton looks overpriced to score the first touchdown in the Colts v Chiefs game)

The Colts finished last in 2011, with star passer Peyton Manning injured, & that allowed them to pick up incredible rookie passer Andrew Luck who has helped guide them to a 9&5 record & the brink of the playoffs, they couldn't have asked for a better game to clinch a post season berth than this one as the Chiefs have taken beatings week in & week out. The Colts' defense is pretty ordinary ranking 21st against the pass & 23rd against the run but Kansas have the lowest average points scored per game in the league at just 13.9 & they're a one dimensional outfit that rely heavily on tailback Jamaal Charles as their quarterback play is so weak. With the knowledge that Kansas are unlikely to score too often the Colts offense will feel pretty confident & the combination of Luck passing to Reggie Wayne will be seen often as they've struck up a great partnership. The other success story for the Colts has been the play of rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton & he's bagged himself 6 touchdowns on the year, Hilton looks too big at 10/1 to get the first TD - he's also on kick & punt returns giving us extra scoring chances. Indy have a few injury niggles but all their key players look set to start & we think they'll be tough to stop

 The Chiefs didn't even get a single point against the pretty bad themselves Raiders last week as they went down 15-0 to 5 Janikowski field goals, it was embarrassing stuff & their defense will feel deflated after not allowing Oakland to score a TD & still losing badly. There's no let up with the dire quarterback play with Brady Quinn only having thrown two scores on the season & they were against a porous Carolina defense. Offensively everything rests on Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs & he's been great with 1,230 rushing yards but even he struggled last week getting just 10 yards total on 9 carries & he must be tiring, it looks a tough ask for them to even put up a bold display in their last home game of the year & even their fans mightn't want to see them win if it means they're deprived of the first draft pick!

The Colts will be desperate to get the job done this week as in their final regular season game they host the Texans & that looks a very tough one indeed unless they've already got the number one spot. With the Chiefs having lost 10 of their 14 games by more than 7 points the handicap of -6.5 points for Indianapolis looks a great bet & should be snapped up without hesitation.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Miami are technically still in the hunt for a wildcard playoff place with the potential to get to an even 8&8 record with two wins but it seems highly unlikely they'll make it & the Bills are already eliminated with a 5&9 losing record. With pretty ordinary quarterback play for both teams this looks like it might be tight & trappy encounter with lots of rushing plays, it might not be the most important game of all time but we think there's money to be made as a gambling event.

(Mario Williams is starting to prove his worth at defensive end for the Bills)

Buffalo took a humiliating beating last week to Seattle but the Seahawks seem to have turned on the afterburners in their last few outings (becoming Super Bowl dark horses in the process) & that may not have been quite as dreadful a result as it looked for the Bills. The Buffalo defense had started to perform closer to the level it should be at with the individuals in it & the upgrades made before the season started, before the Seahawks game they'd restricted opponents to 20 or less points for 4 games in a row. On offense they rank up in 6th for rushing yards & C.J. Spiller continues to pick up the yards in his breakout season but he won't find it easy against the Dolphins' defense that rank 6th in points given up & 8th against the run.

Miami have struggled for points all season & we don't see it improving here even though Buffalo have been bad against the run over the year, Reggie Bush is not a dependable running back & he'll be getting a heavy workload with Daniel Thomas now out for the remainder of the season. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill did well against Jacksonville but they're not a good side & his passer rating of 75.9 is not very good at all. Brian Hartline & Davone Bess are targeted way more than his other receivers & that's problematic as Bess is out & Hartline still questionable for the game, without them it 'll be tough for them to move the ball easily down the field. They're pretty hot defensively & Karlos Dansby continues to be monstrous at the linebacker position & Reshad Jones has been pretty nifty at safety too, that tough defense always gives them a chance as they look to shut down the opposition & gain good field position. With decent defenses, rushing games meaning the clock will tick & overall questionable quarterbacks we can see this being a low scoring affair so back under 41.5 total points at Evens with Coral.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -6.5 point handicap at 10/11 (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill)
T.Y. Hilton to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet & William Hill)
Under 41.5 points in Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins at Evens (Coral)

NFL Week 15 - Cowboys & Redskins? Welcome to the good old US of American Football!

The NFL keeps on rolling & we're really into the home stretch now with just 3 weeks of regular season games left before the playoffs, we're looking at two games between AFC North & NFC East teams that have big playoff implications with all 4 teams' chances in precarious positions.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys

This game between the two best supported teams in the NFL has plenty of subtext to it & it's no surprise to see it's the televised evening game here in the UK, regardless of all the things surrounding this game we're struggling to see how the Steelers have been made favourites for the clash.

(DeMarcus Ware sacks Ben Roethlisberger - we could see plenty of this on Sunday)

There was tragedy before the Cowboys' game last week as practice squad member Jerry Brown Jr was killed in a car crash with team mate Josh Brent at the wheel, Brent was subsequently charged with manslaughter yet the Cowboys came up with a win over the Bengals with a last minute field goal. Dallas have hit a rich vein of form, winning 4 of their last 5 just when it looked like their season was a lost one with a 3&6 start & although they've not beaten good sides, the Bengals aside, it's been altogether better than Pittsburgh's recent run. The Steelers' recent poor run of one win in 4 has coincided with injury to their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger & even though he returned last week they fell to the San Diego Chargers who have been laughably poor for most of their season. Big Ben is clearly playing whilst still injured (he's wearing a Kevlar body protector) & whilst he is exceptional on the big occasions he may just be pushing it too much this time, it also doesn't help that their rushing attack really isn't good enough (ranks 25th in yards per game).

Pittsburgh's offensive line has been a weak point for several years & that impacts on their running offense & also their pass protection of Roethlisberger & it's no surprise that he has been getting injured, that pass protection will be sorely tested by the Cowboy's star player & sack monster linebacker DeMarcus Ware who will be in the passer's face at every opportunity. Pittsburgh are still a force on defense, ranking 1st in yards given up & they'll be relying on that holding up here against Dallas's potent passing offense - it won't be easy even with the Cowboys' top receiver Dez Bryant having a fractured finger. Bryant's injury should mean that Tony Romo targets his good buddy Jason Witten even more & Miles Austin should see plenty of action too, the short passes to tight end Witten may do just the trick against the aggressive Steeler defense. Dallas are renowned for being chokers when it gets to December & the playoffs loom but it's worth siding with them against the Steelers who have lost to some much poorer sides than the Cowboys, take the 11/10 on offer for a home win.

Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns

In another game between sides from the AFC North & NFC East we see Washington travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, the sides have won 7 in a row between them to improve from poor starts & this could be a good one.

(Redskin rookies Kirk Cousins & Alfred Morris will hope to lead them to victory)

The Redskins have one big injury problem with their impressive rookie passer Robert Griffin III getting a knee injury last week & he is either out or going to play on the injured knee which will severely limit his mobility which is such a key facet of his game. the positive for the Redskins is that their backup quarterback, another rookie, Kirk Cousins did a great job when stepping into the game last week & they have the league's number one ranked rushing attack anyway. That run offense of course is helped by Griffin's ability to take off but their running back (another rookie!) Alfred Morris has been outstanding running for over 100 yards in 6 games this year including in his last 3 games. There should be points available whoever starts for Washington against the Browns' defense that is merely ordinary at best but they do need to improve on defense themselves, it's an area where they don't really have any stars & they are too reliant on 37 year old veteran London Fletcher at times.

This game really is rookie central as the Browns' quarterback Brandon Weeden & starting tailback Trent Richardson are both first year players too, Richardson has undoubtedly been a success with 10 touchdowns although his yrads per carry is only average whilst Weeden has had his troubles at times. Weeden is actually the oldest player ever drafted in the first round of the NFL draft (he was 28 at the time but 29 now) & he previously played pro baseball, he's thrown 15 interceptions to 13 touchdowns but we think he should have done better with a nice set of receivers to aim for. Josh Gordon has been the Cleveland receiver to really step up to the mark in recent weeks & he'll like his chances of more receiving yards against the weak Redskin secondary. The Browns also have one of the league's best cornerbacks in Joe Haden who is basically a shutdown corenerback meaning he can completely nullify an opposing receiver - it may however not be overly useful in this one as we see Washington going very run heavy here.

Even though both sides are on winning runs we can't be too impressed with Cleveland's wins that have come against Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger & then the hapless Raiders & Chiefs, they'll have a good go at it but Washington can pick up the win & keep themselves in playoff contention.

Selections:
Dallas Cowboys to beat Pittsburgh Steelers at 11/10 (General)
Washington Redskins to beat Cleveland Browns at 5/6 (General)

NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 13 - Cardinals & Jets won't get up to speed

We're right at the business end of the regular season now with wins being enough to clinch divisions & playoff places whilst losses could mean the end of competitive football for some teams for another season. We're looking at two games as we look for more profit in the NFL season before the playoffs get underway.

With the apparent murder-suicide by Kansas City linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/01/sports/football/01reuters-nfl-chiefs-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss it throws the Panthers @ Chiefs game into doubt & means our selections are irrelevant.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs

More mediocrity! As we look at a game with two teams with just 4 wins from 22 games this season between them! The 3&8 Panthers are travelling to the 1&10 league worst Kansas City Chiefs in a game where both sides are striving to add a semblance of respectability to their season.

(Brandon LaFell is a dangerous deep threat for the Panthers)

The Panthers have had a pretty tough schedule & looking back at the teams they've lost to you'd probably only say that the loss in week 5 when at home to the poor travelling Seahawks was a bad one, they took red hot Tampa Bay to overtime two weeks ago & then beat down the Eagles (like most sides do at the moment) last week with star player Cam Newton starting to get his confidence back. Carolina have started to look better in recent weeks & have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 & even though winning only 2 they went down by just a single point to a strong Chicago Bears side in that sequence too.

The Chiefs have only scored 20+ points three times all season & rank stone last in points gained per game with just 14.6 & have fared pretty badly in points given up at 27.4 per game to rank 28th in the NFL. Atrocious quarterback play has been the Chiefs' downfall with Matt Cassel & (Not Tom) Brady Quinn combining for a grand total of 6 touchdowns between them & 16 interceptions thrown - it looks like Mr Quinn is getting the start here. Jamaal Charles has been great at tailback after returning from injury  in the last 3 weeks has run for 100, 87 & 107 yards but it just isn't enough to cover for the quarterback play that has meant they've had 21 more turnovers than their opponents over the season. They've been decent on pass defense & we've a lot of love for their cornerback Brandon Flowers but their rush defense hasn't been up to scratch & they'll struggle to stop Cam Newton taking off when he scrambles.

Carolina still need their running backs Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams to step up & help Cam Newton if they're going to become a more complete offensive unit but regardless they will have enough to trounce the Chiefs here & can easily beat them by more than the 3 points required on the point spread.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets

The Cardinals haven't won a game since week 4 meaning they're on a 7 game losing streak whilst the Jets have cobbled together an identical 4&7 record but with their wins more sporadic - they have at times looked laughable & some of their play last week against the Patriots was simply appalling.

(Not Mark Sanchez's finest moment on the football field)

New York would have been particularly upset last week with the way the team simply went awol during the 2nd quarter & gave up 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady & New England, the Jets don't have enough weapons on offense to allow teams easy points. Mark Sanchez continues to be one of the least convincing starting quarterbacks in the league & he's thrown just 12 touchdowns on the year as the Jets rank 28th in passing yards. The Jets have in recent years prided themselves on their stout defense which has helped cover up their offensive flaws but this year they're giving up an average of 26.4 points a game to rank 26th & they've been awful against the run ranking 30th with over 140 yards per game against them. Season ending injuries to key players haven't helped the Jets, especially to awesome cornerback Darrelle Revis & the hugely talented, although troublesome, wide receiver Santonio Holmes - they were the team's best players by far on pass defense & offense respectively & their loss has been acute.

The Cardinals started off the season brightly with good defense & doing just about enough on offense but injuries to their quarterbacks & general poor play from them has blighted their season & their lack of passing threat has also made it difficult to run the ball either with them ranking 30th in rushing yards. Rookie passer Ryan Lindley looks like he'll start his 2nd game this Sunday even after throwing 4 interceptions & no touchdowns against the Rams last week, Kevin Kolb is still unfit & the season's starting QB John Skelton is now completely out of favour & rightly so. Their running backs haven't stepped up to help the passers either although injury has again affected them with Beanie Wells & Ryan Williams both having prolonged periods out, LaRod Stephens-Howling has had most of the carries but only has 3.4 yards per attempt whilst they've seemed reluctant to use 1st year back William Powell even though he's done well when seen. Beanie Wells made his return last week & that could help them out a bit, they need their running game to get going against this defense that is poor at run blocking especially with their best receiver Andre Roberts struggling with injury.

This is an uninspiring game between two struggling sides but the Jets do have a semblance of hope with their remaining 5 games (including this one) against mediocre teams & although it would be close to a miracle they could still, just about, make the playoffs - we don't think they will though! With poor offenses but decent pass defenses this looks set to be a low scoring affair & the points total is at just 37 points, we think it'll go below even that though with the 31st & 22nd highest scorers squaring off.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Texans continue to roll & have now got a record of 10 wins & one loss & even though their last two victories have come with overtime wins they face much more accommodating opponents in the Tennessee Titans this week.

(Andre Johnson is starting to become a dominant receiver again for the Texans)

We won't spend long previewing this one: we think the Texans are the best side in the league & are delighted our antepost bets sit with them to win the Super Bowl, their offense has begun to really fire in the past couple of weeks & they come up against the Titans defense that are giving up an average of 30.5 points per game - this could be a bloodbath! 9 of Houston's 10 victories have come by 6 points or more which is the handicap line in this one, back the Texans to rout Tennessee (as they did earlier in the season 38-14) with a -6 point handicap & confirm their playoff place.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets to be under 37 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Tennessee Titans with -6 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 12 - Buffalo out of Luck at Colts

We've already had 3 games this week as Thursday saw the traditional Thanksgiving games & the Texans continued to win & now stand at 10&1 for the season & the Patriots won convincingly too to keep up the chase in the AFC. We're looking at a couple of games that could prove crucial in the chase for the playoffs & there are some nice bets to be had as we try to keep the winners coming!

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

This game looks like a potential cracker with 5 of the Bills games totaling over 50 points this season & here they come up against the number one overall draft pick in the Colts' outstanding young quarterback Andrew Luck.

(Vick Ballard (taking the hand-off) could have a huge game running the ball)

The Bills have been embarrassingly bad on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 ranking 26th in total defense & have given up the 3rd most points per game (29.9 - only the Raiders & Titans are worse) & they've been particularly awful against stopping the run. What makes Buffalo's defensive malaise worse is that they invested heavily during the off season bringing in Mario Williams as their marquee signing from the Texans yet the Bills have got worse & Houston seem just as good without Williams. Buffalo's weakness against the run could bite them here even though you'd think of the Colts as a passing team, Andrew Luck is happy to take off & has already run in 5 TDs himself plus we reckon Vick Ballard could rack up the rushing yards in this one too.

Buffalo would maybe be more competitive if their offense was a little more explosive but it's been merely average this season even with some excellent running performances from the emerging C.J. Spiller - both Spiller & fellow running back Fred Jackson have slightly injury concerns here (Knee & concussion respectively). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is only ordinary & his stats this season look slightly skewed thanks to facing some pretty average teams at times, their 4 wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona & Miami...

The Colts have also beaten some poor sides but have added the notable scalps of the Minnesota Vikings & Green Bay Packers too & have only lost at home once from 5 games so far, there is a real sense of optimisim in Indianapolis & they'll feel they can bounce back after being slapped down by the Patriots last week. The Colts rank an impressive 5th in offensive yards gained per game & Luck has passed for 300+ yards in 5 out of 10 games which are excellent numbers for a rookie. Luck has developed a great relationship with key receiver Reggie Wayne & the spectacular catch maker already has 1,003 receiving yards - he'll be a favourite target here.With home field advantage (& the fact we haven't read too much into the blowout loss against New England) we're confident that the Colts can easily cover the -3 point handicap against a brittle Buffalo side.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

This game between two of the big name sides in the NFL is one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams needing to win this one to keep up the pace in their tight divisions, the Giants have stumbled in their last couple & are looking to bounce back after their bye week whilst the Packers look to keep rolling after 5 straight wins.

(Touchdown! Jordy Nelson! At least we hope that's the commentary)

There are similarities in both teams as they are largely reliant on the performances of their quarterbacks & their defenses creating turnovers & it has proven a successful strategy as they have taken the last two Super Bowls. Of course relying so heavily on your passer means that if he has a bad game then you invariably lose & that has been the Giants' problem with Eli Manning's form dipping markedly in their last 4 games after a great start to the season & they lost to the Steelers & Bengals after receiving scares from the Redskins & Cowboys. Manning is a top quarterback & a real big game player (as two Super Bowls prove) but we'd always take Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers if we had to pick between the two, he's outstanding  leads the league with a passer rating of 107.3 whilst Manning is down at a mediocre 81.8.

Green Bay are the only team to have beaten the Houston Texans this year & also prevailed against Chicago (only other loss was to Houston) which shows they are right up there in terms of the best teams this season & they've come back well after shock, close losses to Seattle & Indianapolis. The Packers could certainly do wit improving their offensive line which has given up 32 sacks & is a big reason their running game is relatively ineffective, they're fortunate that Rodgers doesn't panic under pressure & their defensive pass rush is a weaon on the other side with 33 sacks of their own. Green Bay's defense will be missing star linebacker Clay Matthews but they'll still fancy they can get pressure on Eli Manning & if they do his slump could continue. Key for the Packers is that they limit star receiver Victor Cruz as much as possible, he's Manning's favourite target by far whereas Rodgers has a wide range of targets to pick from though Jordy Nelson may be the man to concentrate on now he's fit again, he's a big price at 8/1 to bag the first touchdown.

New York do have the home advantage but they will need to have worked on Eli Manning's game plenty in their bye week because he's looking unfocused at times & we would much rather be with the Packers in this one with a handy 3 point handicap lead.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Buffalo Bills with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Green Bay Packers to beat New York Giants with +3 points on the handicap at 5/6 (General)
Jordy Nelson to score first touchdown in Packers @ Giants game at 8/1 (Various)