NFL Week 13 - Cardinals & Jets won't get up to speed

We're right at the business end of the regular season now with wins being enough to clinch divisions & playoff places whilst losses could mean the end of competitive football for some teams for another season. We're looking at two games as we look for more profit in the NFL season before the playoffs get underway.

With the apparent murder-suicide by Kansas City linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/01/sports/football/01reuters-nfl-chiefs-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss it throws the Panthers @ Chiefs game into doubt & means our selections are irrelevant.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs

More mediocrity! As we look at a game with two teams with just 4 wins from 22 games this season between them! The 3&8 Panthers are travelling to the 1&10 league worst Kansas City Chiefs in a game where both sides are striving to add a semblance of respectability to their season.

(Brandon LaFell is a dangerous deep threat for the Panthers)

The Panthers have had a pretty tough schedule & looking back at the teams they've lost to you'd probably only say that the loss in week 5 when at home to the poor travelling Seahawks was a bad one, they took red hot Tampa Bay to overtime two weeks ago & then beat down the Eagles (like most sides do at the moment) last week with star player Cam Newton starting to get his confidence back. Carolina have started to look better in recent weeks & have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 & even though winning only 2 they went down by just a single point to a strong Chicago Bears side in that sequence too.

The Chiefs have only scored 20+ points three times all season & rank stone last in points gained per game with just 14.6 & have fared pretty badly in points given up at 27.4 per game to rank 28th in the NFL. Atrocious quarterback play has been the Chiefs' downfall with Matt Cassel & (Not Tom) Brady Quinn combining for a grand total of 6 touchdowns between them & 16 interceptions thrown - it looks like Mr Quinn is getting the start here. Jamaal Charles has been great at tailback after returning from injury  in the last 3 weeks has run for 100, 87 & 107 yards but it just isn't enough to cover for the quarterback play that has meant they've had 21 more turnovers than their opponents over the season. They've been decent on pass defense & we've a lot of love for their cornerback Brandon Flowers but their rush defense hasn't been up to scratch & they'll struggle to stop Cam Newton taking off when he scrambles.

Carolina still need their running backs Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams to step up & help Cam Newton if they're going to become a more complete offensive unit but regardless they will have enough to trounce the Chiefs here & can easily beat them by more than the 3 points required on the point spread.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets

The Cardinals haven't won a game since week 4 meaning they're on a 7 game losing streak whilst the Jets have cobbled together an identical 4&7 record but with their wins more sporadic - they have at times looked laughable & some of their play last week against the Patriots was simply appalling.

(Not Mark Sanchez's finest moment on the football field)

New York would have been particularly upset last week with the way the team simply went awol during the 2nd quarter & gave up 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady & New England, the Jets don't have enough weapons on offense to allow teams easy points. Mark Sanchez continues to be one of the least convincing starting quarterbacks in the league & he's thrown just 12 touchdowns on the year as the Jets rank 28th in passing yards. The Jets have in recent years prided themselves on their stout defense which has helped cover up their offensive flaws but this year they're giving up an average of 26.4 points a game to rank 26th & they've been awful against the run ranking 30th with over 140 yards per game against them. Season ending injuries to key players haven't helped the Jets, especially to awesome cornerback Darrelle Revis & the hugely talented, although troublesome, wide receiver Santonio Holmes - they were the team's best players by far on pass defense & offense respectively & their loss has been acute.

The Cardinals started off the season brightly with good defense & doing just about enough on offense but injuries to their quarterbacks & general poor play from them has blighted their season & their lack of passing threat has also made it difficult to run the ball either with them ranking 30th in rushing yards. Rookie passer Ryan Lindley looks like he'll start his 2nd game this Sunday even after throwing 4 interceptions & no touchdowns against the Rams last week, Kevin Kolb is still unfit & the season's starting QB John Skelton is now completely out of favour & rightly so. Their running backs haven't stepped up to help the passers either although injury has again affected them with Beanie Wells & Ryan Williams both having prolonged periods out, LaRod Stephens-Howling has had most of the carries but only has 3.4 yards per attempt whilst they've seemed reluctant to use 1st year back William Powell even though he's done well when seen. Beanie Wells made his return last week & that could help them out a bit, they need their running game to get going against this defense that is poor at run blocking especially with their best receiver Andre Roberts struggling with injury.

This is an uninspiring game between two struggling sides but the Jets do have a semblance of hope with their remaining 5 games (including this one) against mediocre teams & although it would be close to a miracle they could still, just about, make the playoffs - we don't think they will though! With poor offenses but decent pass defenses this looks set to be a low scoring affair & the points total is at just 37 points, we think it'll go below even that though with the 31st & 22nd highest scorers squaring off.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Texans continue to roll & have now got a record of 10 wins & one loss & even though their last two victories have come with overtime wins they face much more accommodating opponents in the Tennessee Titans this week.

(Andre Johnson is starting to become a dominant receiver again for the Texans)

We won't spend long previewing this one: we think the Texans are the best side in the league & are delighted our antepost bets sit with them to win the Super Bowl, their offense has begun to really fire in the past couple of weeks & they come up against the Titans defense that are giving up an average of 30.5 points per game - this could be a bloodbath! 9 of Houston's 10 victories have come by 6 points or more which is the handicap line in this one, back the Texans to rout Tennessee (as they did earlier in the season 38-14) with a -6 point handicap & confirm their playoff place.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets to be under 37 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Tennessee Titans with -6 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 11 - Brutish Bengals won't bow down to Chiefs

There are some big games between bitter rivals this week in the NFL, not least Baltimore at Pittsburgh where the Steelers have to overcome being without quarterback 'Big Ben' Roethelisberger & also an intriguing game between the Colts & Patriots where star rookie Andrew Luck comes up against passing legend Tom Brady. We're concentrating on a couple of games with teams on the verge of a playoff push coming up against some of this season's real stugglers.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City come into this game with just one win from 9 games so far & although they showed improvement to hold out until overtime against the Steelers last week this looks a tough ask against the Bengals who bounced back after 4 successive losses to slam the New York Giants 31-13 last Sunday.

(The Bengals' A.J. Green is fast becoming a superstar wide receiver)

The Bengals possess the NFL's best young wide receiver in A.J.Green & him & quarterback Andy Dalton have a great understanding with them combining for at least one touchdown in their last 8 games including 3 touchdown catches of 50+ yards showing the deep threat the Bengals have. A.J. Green stretches the field which means that Andrew Hawkins & tight end Jermaine Gresham tend to find space in the middle of the field although the Bengals' running game hasn't been up to the same standard as their passing. BenJarvus Green-Ellis joined from the Patriots in thee summer & is a perfectly dependable running back in terms of keeping hold of the ball but he is hardly explosive & is averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season. They've been just average defensively this year ranking 19th on passing yards given up & 20th on rushing  given up too many points, a positive is how aggressive they've been & they've managed to sack opposing quarterbacks 27 times so far ranking joint 4th.

The Chiefs have been having a miserable season & are the perfect example to hold up when highlighting just how crucial the quarterback position is in the NFL with Matt Cassel & backup Brady Quinn combining to throw just 6 touchdowns to 15 interceptions so far as the Chiefs have limped sorrily along. Jamaal Charles has been smashing into opposition defenses after coming back from injury & the Chiefs rank 4th overall in rushing yards. he running game just hasn't been enough though to back up their weak passing & in both areas they struggle to get the ball into the end zone even when they do move it up the field & rank just 30th in points scored. On defense they've fared reasonably against the pass & we think their cornerback Brandon Flowers is a real talent but they've only come up with 15 sacks  rank 23rd against the run. Unlike some teams that can rank statistically poorly but manage to hold teams when they get close to the end zone the Chiefs  allow too many touchdowns & are given up 28.4 points a game which looks like trouble when facing what can be a powerful Cincinnati offense. The Bengals are only giving up 3.5 points on the handicap here & that looks an ace bet, especially when you consider they travelled to the Super Bowl champs last week & beat them by 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

This game is a NFC South divisional rematch from week one where the Buccaneers prevailed in a low scoring encounter, Tampa Bay are making a push for the playoffs with a 5&4 record so far whilst the Panthers are looking to rescue their season with just two wins, both coming against inconsistent opponents.

(Vincent Jackson has already become a firm favourite for Tampa Bay fans & can score in this one)

Carolina's big problem this year has been the eratic performances of their quarterback Cam Newton who picked up the offensive rookie of the year award last season. 'Super' Cam has thrown 10 picks to 8 touchdowns & he's coughed the ball up for 9 fumbles too & at times has looked moody & far from a team player, it's difficult to ascertain whether that's an accurate assessment but it is problematic as quarterbacks are most effective when taking a leadership position. The Panthers are averaging over 7 points less per game this year than last & have faded back more on offense than the slight improvement they've made on the defensive side of the ball. So much of the Panthers' offense rests on Cam's shoulders because he's also their leading rusher with Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams both having ordinary seasons at tailback. Carolina don't look to have any defensive stars but are performing better as a unit & have improved after giving up a league high 8.4 yards per pass in 2011, bringing that down to 7.2 yards in 2012.

Tampa Bay are a strange team in some respects as on defense they rank 1st against the run but that's because teams know they are so easy to pass against with a weak pass rush & they rank stone last giving up 321.3 yards through the air per game. Even though their defense is clearly weak the Bucs have got themselves a winning record because they have a few key players on offense playing exceptionally well with rookie running back Doug Martin stunning defenses with an average of 95.8 yards per game & he's bagged himself 8 touchdowns so far this year. Young passer Josh Freeman has looked a lot more solid this year after a very wobbly 2011 & that seems to be down to him staying in the pocket a bit more & playing more of a classic quarterback role, it's shown in his touchdowns to interceptions (18-5) compared to last year (22-29), he'll feel that he can hit his targets in this one against the average Carolina defense. Vincent Jackson has joined from San Diego & made an instant impact giving Freeman a big physical target to aim for along with the versatile Mike Williams & the highly dependable tight end Dallas Clark who came in from the Colts. They do struggle to put pressure on opposition quarterbacks & have given up too many points even though they'v been scoring well themselves, in the Bucs' last 5 games we've seen points totals of 48, 63, 53, 74 & 58 - it suggests we could be in for a high scoring one here especially if Cam Newton can take advantage with a little less pressure when passing. The total points line has been set at 47.5 by Betfred for this one & we can see it going way over that if both teams' defenses continue to leak yards & points. In terms of touchdown scorers Vincent Jackson has been going nicely with 6 this year & odds of 8/1 for him to grab the first one look value.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3.5 handicap at Evens (Various)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers to total more than 47.5 points at 10/11 (Betfred)
Vincent Jackson to score 1st Touchdown in Tampa Bay v Carolina game at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 5 - Super Cam can Slay Seahawks

They say pride come before a fall & we came back down to earth on Saturday with a bump after 4 wins from 4 picks early in the week, our ambitious pick of QPR failed to come off even after they showed a bit of fight vs West brom & Gillingham failed to find a way through after hitting the post early on against Oxford. You can't win them all though (unless you're the Houston Texans!) & we're back with picks from two of Sunday's NFL games as the Seahawks take on the Panthers & the Eagles face off against the Steelers.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Every Carolina game has a little bit of unpredictability as you can never be sure just how effective their star player, quarterback Cam Newton can be & he's got a tough test this week against Seattle's decent defense. Seattle have a slightly better record than Carolina this year with two wins compared to the Panthers' one but that is highly fortunate as one of those victories was the controversial last second win over the Green Bay Packers.

(We're looking for Cam Newton to star in this one against Seattle)

Both of Seattle's victories have come at home & they tend to fare a lot better on their own field in general with only 8 road wins from the 2008 season onwards. Carolina's loss in week one v Tampa was disappointing but their other two losses were no disgrace, getting rather blown away by Super Bowl champs the New York Giants & then pushing form side Atlanta all the way last week. The Panthers' have a pretty ordinary defense but the Seahawks probably aren't the team to exploit it as they rank just 28th in points scored & yards gained per game & they will surely continue to rely heavily on Marshawn Lynch rather than the passing of their somewhat limited rookie Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks have a mean pass rush but that isn't the best way to stop Cam Newton as he isn't a quarterback who wants to stay in the pocket anyway & he could really hurt Seattle by taking off & breaking off some big runs. Newton really is the key here but if he does perform we can see Carolina winning this by a stretch, he's averaging a league high 9.5 yards per completed pass plus has run for plenty of yards & 3 rushing touchdowns already. With Cam being backed up with the running game of DeAngelo Williams the Panthers can cover the -3 point handicap & consign Seattle to another away loss.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This interstate game only comes around once every four years but means that we have a veritable derby game between the Philadephia Eagles & Pittsburgh Steelers of Pennsylvania at the Steelers' home of Heinz Field.

(Eagles fans will hope to see less of this from Michael Vick)

This is maybe the most fascinating contest of the week as the teams rank 5th (Pittsburgh) & 6th (Philadelphia) on defense but both have some weapons on offense too with the Eagles ranking 5th in offensive yards gained & Pittsburgh having one of the most dangerous passing attacks with Ben Roethlisberger having ace receivers to pass to. The Eagles's offensive yard stat doesn't tell the whole story though as although they rank 5th in yards they rank in 30th place in points scored as they have turned the ball over too many times & struggled to get touchdowns when in the red zone (38.5% of the time). Michael Vick hasn't protected the ball at all well at times & they've had a league high 6 rushing fumbles. Yet for all their troubles the Eagles have somehow managed to get 3 wins from 4 games by a combined total of just 4 points with incredibly narrow victories over the Browns, Ravens & Giants & the saying goes that good teams win even when playing badly.

(Mike Wallace is out to show Antonio Brown & others he's still the star receiver in Pittsburgh)

The Steelers are coming off a bye week & they'll be hoping to improve after a slow start that has seen them only beat the terrible New York Jets. The bye week came at the right time as they were really struggling with injuries to key players but they all look likely to return in this one, Troy Polamalu & James Harrison are two of the NFL's biggest defensive stars & will really bolster them whilst the return of Rashard Mendenhall at running back could add a much needed running game to complement the passing. At receiver the Steelers have an arsenal of talent with the emerging Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown & Mike Wallace, the team had some issues with Wallace pre-season & he missed some training but he has improved markedly in each game as shown by receiving figures of 37, 74 & 123 yards respectively & a touchdown in each game - he's overpriced at 9/1 to score the first touchdown of the game.

This isn't an easy one to call as we've been unimpressed with the Steelers so far & Philadelphia seem to make too many mistakes to be trusted even though they've somehow gained 3 wins from 4 games so instead we'll take the total points line & the game to go over 43. Only one of Philadelphia's games has gone over that mark so far but they have had the chances to score many more points than they've managed whilst we've seen 50 & 65 points in two of Pittsburgh's games suggesting this has the potential to be a high scoring affair.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Seattle Seahawks with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Various)
Over 43 total points in Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers at 10/11 (Various)
Mike Wallace to score first touchdown at 9/1 (Paddy Power)

Shooutouts in North London & North Carolina

We're feeling a bit happier now as our success rate over the last couple of weeks has improved as the football season has started to mature a little, those few more games really make a difference as you get to see how teams perform against different styles & quality & means betting can be that bit more informed. We were delighted to see Real Madrid keep pushing to the end on Tuesday night & Bradford did things a little more easily as the pair brought in both our bets - this Thursday we're going back to Europe as we look at the Europa League & Spurs' opening assignment plus NFL betting as the New York Giants travel to Carolina.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Lazio

 (Jermain Defoe is relishing currently being the main man for club & country)

Spurs start their Europa League assault against Italian side Lazio at White Hart Lane, manager Andre Villas-Boas won the trophy in 2011 with Porto & has vowed to take the competition seriously unlike previous boss Harry Redknapp. Spurs won their first game of the season on Sunday vs Reading thanks to a brace from in-form striker Jermain Defoe & he will likely lead the line again with Emmanuel Adebayor sidelined. French captain Hugo Lloris & Clint Dempsey are likely to make their first starts for the club & fringe players Michael Dawson, Steven Caulker, Tom Huddlestone & Andros Townsend could feature

Lazio have made an impressive start to the Serie A season with three straight wins against Atalanta, Palermo & Chievo Verona. Brazilian midfielder Hernanes & veteran striker Miroslav Klose have scored six of their seven goals so far & they should line-up in a similar fashion to the one that beat Chievo. Both sides are packed with high quality attacking options & with Spurs' record of conceding & scoring in every game so far this season the 10/11 on both teams to score looks a solid bet.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers came up with a nice result when turning over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday & they now host another of the NFC's big hitters as champions the New York Giants look to continue to put points on the board after outgunning Tampa Bay 41-34 at the weekend. The Buccaneers actually provide us with a bit of a form guide as Carolina took them on in week one in a very different contest where the Tampa Bay prevailed with a 16-10 victory in a rather dour affair. The Panthers really struggled to run the ball in that week one game & that could be the Giants' key to slowing them down as quarterback Cam Newton is just about the most mobile starter in the league & keeps any defense guessing. The Giants are especially good in the pass rush though meaning they'll be coming after Newton with regularity but the defense will need to be sharp as they're missing a couple of starters on offense.

(Brandon LaFell hauls one in against the Saints as he gains 90 receiving yards)

The Giants' starting running back Ahmad Bradshaw is out with a foot injury & Andre Brown will line up as starter instead, he did well against Tampa Bay with 71 rushing yards & there's no reason he won't get some success here. Bigger for the Giants is that key receiver Hakeem Nicks is out - he looked awesome on Sunday when gaining 199 receiving yards & will be missed here. Eli Manning will also be missing another receiver to pass to with Domenik Hixon out & that should mean that Victor Cruz gets a very heavy workload & he should get a touchdown as New York are very much a passing team - odds of 4/7 for him to score reflect this.

Although the Panthers lost to Tampa Bay you'd be hard pushed to say they aren't a better team & they have two receivers who could really hurt New York's still ropey secondary in the speedy & dependable Steve Smith & 3rd year pro Brandon LaFell who looks like he might have a breakout year. LaFell could really cause the Giants some problems as he's a big physical receiver & they couldn't cope with a similar type in Vincent Jackson last time out. The Panthers will need DeAngelo Williams to be on his game at running back though as Jonathan Stewart looks like missing out, there are points to be scored against New York & so long as they don't fall behind like they did against the Saints they could win this one nicely. The Giants are more likely to be affected by the short preparation time as they have to travel & being without Bradshaw & Nicks could be the killer blows, backing the Carolina Panthers to prevail at odds of 5/6. In the touchdown markets we do really like Brandon LaFell & he's 11/1 to score the first TD with Ladbrokes - it looks worth a small wager.

Selections:
Both teams to score Spurs vs Lazio at 10/11 (BlueSquare)
Carolina Panthers to beat New York Giants at 5/6 (Various)
Brandon LaFell to score first Touchdown at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

Ravens at Eagles - Lots of Squawking & not much Scoring

We were disappointed midweek as the Bears v Packers game was a bit of a damp squib with both teams offensive lines seeming to be made of paper - that will be a feature to watch for the rest of the year because if hey can't protect their passers neither side can be considered for the Super Bowl. We're back this weekend with picks from three games including a potential defensive showcase as the Ravens travel to the Eagles & we've some touchdown scorer bets that seem a little overpriced with certain bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

When we started looking at this weekend's games we'd already pinpointed the Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles as potentially the lowest scoring game of the week as two scary defenses come up against each other so we were surprised to see the total points line set at a large 46.5 points. Last year the Eagles had just 6 games go over the 46 points set here & the Ravens had just 4 of their 18 games (inc playoffs) go over, so from 34 games played just 10 went over & it seems amazing the line is so high.

(Coach Andy Reid will look to stop the Ravens' offense - cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be key)

Baltimore got a load of points on the board against Cincinnati on Monday night but the Bengals defense didn't seem to be able to adapt after setting up to stop Ray Rice running & made it too easy for Joe Flacco to use his arm strength & find targets down the field, it will almost certainly not be that easy to do the same against the Eagles. Philadelphia have two ace defensive ends in Trent Cole & Jason Babin who will ensure the pass rush against Flacco is strong & if he does get the ball away their corner backs Nnamdi Asomugha & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are amongst the best around & should give receivers Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin problems. Philadelphia weren't at their best last week with Michael Vick throwing 4 interceptions & they're arguably coming up against the best defense in the league with the Ravens, they won't have to deal with the threat of Terrell Suggs in the pass rush but Baltimore still looked stifling without him.

We can see both teams looking to their star running backs in Ray Rice & LeSean McCoy as they try to avoid turnovers & that should mean that plenty of time runs off the clock, this could end up coming down to a field goal & the under 46.5 points must be backed - the price for this should be closer to 1/2 than 10/11.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints travel up to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Pathers with both teams having suffered losses when favourites to win last week. The Saints were relatively well fancied for a Super Bowl push this year & the 2009 season champions were handed a boost when their players suspended for their part in the 'Bountygate' scandal were cleared to play, Carolina meanwhile were fancied by no one even with their impressive young quarterback Cam Newton.

New Orleans will undoubtedly be disappointed to have lost to the Redskins last week especially as they are usually unbeatable at home but Washington are an outfit on the up with a good defense, an emerging talent at running back in Alfred Morris & an exceptional talent in rookie passer Robert Griffin III. The Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay was more worrying as the Buccaneers lost their last 10 games last year & were rarely even getting close to the opposition yet they limited the Panthers to just two scores (touchdown & field goal) as Carolina went down 16-10. The Panthers are just a bit too one-dimensional as just about everything falls on Cam Newton's shoulders, as well as passing for 4,051 yards last year he also added another 706 on the ground & if he doesn't play well they have little chance.

(Lance Moore should score at some point against a weak Panthers defense)

We feel the Saints are being a little underrated here considering that Drew Brees threw for 346 yards last week & the Panthers ranked just 28th against the pass in 2011, he's got every opportunity to pick them apart here & put huge numbers on the board & taking New Orleans with a -2.5 point handicap looks a very sound bet. A favourite target of Drew Brees' is Lance Moore & he looks a reasonable price at 8/5 to score anytime (8 TDs each of last two years) & 12/1 to score the first touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

We were pleased to see the San Diego Chargers get their season off to a good start with a win away at Oakland, that was a tough fixture & they'll find it considerably easier when they host the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers were certainly helped by some atrocious special teams play from the Raiders but they were pretty resolute defensively & Philip Rivers looked accurate & efficient after a wobbly 2011 season, it helps that he was so well protected & was sacked just once last week.

(Philip Rivers & Antonio Gates can combine to winning effect for the Chargers)

Both of these teams seem to have problems running the ball with the Titans' star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson being wildly inconsistent & again last week he was ridiculously unproductive on the ground with just 4 yards from 11 carries, he does offer a threat in the receiving game though & his ability to break monster runs can't be ignored. The Chargers are really struggling without Ryan Mathews (injury) & he looks set to miss this one again, they only managed 32 rushing yards last week but we feel they have the better quarterback & set of receivers so it shouldn't hurt them so much here. We like the Titans' rookie receiver Kendall Wright but he might need a few more games to be seen to full effect & Nate Washington is capable of making huge plays, they will however struggle until Kenny Britt gets back to fitness, he looks like playing here but could be eased back in. The Chargers will use back Ronnie Brown for plenty of short passes & have an ace tight end in Antonio Gates plus Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal all as dependable receivers.

We think the Chargers' defense will give young quarterback Jake Locker plenty to worry about with Donald Butler coming after him & Eric Weddle waiting in the backfield to mop up any misplaced passes. The Chargers should take advantage of this being a home fixture & overcome a -6.5 point handicap to win by a touchdown or more. Rivers' most likely target when he gets around the end zone is Antonio Gates & the Evens that he gets a touchdown with Skybet looks generous especially as he's 2/9 with Paddy Power!

Selections:
Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles to be under 46.5 points at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints to beat Carolina Panthers with -2.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Lance Moore to score first touchdown at 12/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 8/5 (Bet365) Saints v Panthers
San Diego Chargers to beat Tennessee Titans with a -6.5 point handicap (General)
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (SkyBet)

NFL Week 17 - Eli Manning to lead Giants to the playoffs

It's the final round of regular season games in the NFL meaning there are plenty of games that have little bearing on the playoff picture & punters need to be mindful of teams resting key players in preparation for the knockout stages. Other games have much bigger significance with them helping to decide the final few teams to go to the playoffs or potential seedings meaning teams get byes from the 1st week of action or gain homefield advantage. We've taken these factors along with overall & current form of the teams as well as where there are favourable matchups on offense & defense to find the best bets for this week.

(Justin Smith & his 49ers defense can smother up the Rams - it's not difficult)

We're starting out at St. Louis where the Rams host the San Francisco 49ers as the away team try to win to secure the NFC's No. 2 seed & that important first round bye, that shouldn't be in any danger of not happening as the 49ers have lost just 3 times this year whilst the Rams have won just twice. Last time the teams met the excellent 49ers defense shut out the Rams in a 26-0 win & St. Louis again failed to put a single point on the board last week against the Steelers. In terms of offensive yards per game the Rams are ranked 2nd last but in points gained they're the worst by a distance with just 166 all season at an average of 11.1 per game & they've scored 20 points or more just twice, that is not good news against this 49ers defense that lead the league in points given up a game at just 13.5 & only let in their first rushing touchdown of the year last week. The 49ers have the best run defense statistically & that's unfortunate for Rams running back Steven Jackson as usually so much of their game depends on him, they may also be without quarterback Sam Bradford who wasn't involved last week & may well be rested again here. So we've identified that the Rams aren't going to contribute too many points in this one, maybe a couple of field goals if they're lucky so we should back total Rams points to be under 13 at 5/6 with Betfred.

The 49ers aren't exactly offesive powerhouses themselves, instead relying on their ace defense led by top defensive end Justin Smith, they often settle for field goals & luckily have one of the league's best kickers in David Ackers. They should be able to score against the Rams as St.Louis are jsut average on defense but it's unlikely to be too high scoring for the 49ers either who may well bench their starters if they get a two touchdown lead. The total points line is set at 35.5 & as we can't seeSt. Louis contributing much at all backing under total points of 35.5 is the way to go.

(Happy - the Pathers' quarterback Cam Newton, he can be after this one too)

In a game that only has significance to the playoff picture if the 49ers have an unlikely loss in our first game the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers in the Superdome where the home side Saints have won all of their games so far. It's an interesting one as the Saints have been talking about resting their superstar quarterback Drew Brees (as they think it's so likely the 49ers will win their game), we don't think that's too likely as the man who's just broken the long held season passing yards record won't want to give that up a week later by not playing & allowing the Patriots' Tom Brady to surpass him. It is however a consideration & when takien into account with the Panthers big upswing in form where they've won 4 of their last 5 after having won just twice in the first 10 games it means that the Saints probably shouldn't be quite such hot favourites. Carolina's rookie quarterback has records of his own with most passing yards by a rookie & the most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in a single season, he's huge, quick & accurate & looks to have all the makings of a genuine star for the NFL for the next decade, if only his defense weren't giving up 25.6 yards a game they could have competed this year. Cam will want to show what he can do against New Orleans who are ranked 30th against the pass & this could be a shootout, we don't want to back over points as it is sett at a very high 54 but instead are going with a value pick of the Panthers to win at odds of 11/4.

(3rd most receiving yards in the league - the Giants' Victor Cruz)

The biggest game this week is the last one on the card & is between two of the glamour sides with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the New York Giants in a one game decider for the NFC East division & who gets to progress to the playoffs. The sides met just 3 weeks ago with the Giants eventually coming out victorious at Cowboys Stadium in a 37-34 win & the Giants are also coming off a nice win last week against city rivals the New York Jets whilst the Cowboys took a beating from the now eliminated form the playoffs Philadelphia Eagles. So clearly New York have the current momentum but overall even though both sides have 8-7 winning records the Giants have better overall form as the Cowboys have only beaten one side that currently hold a winning record against the 49ers back in week 2. The Giants meanwhile were looking like a very good side as they lost just twice in their first 8 before losing 4 consecutive games against some of the best sides around in the 49ers, Eagles, Saints & Packers, they've rallied again winning 3 of their last 4.

The Cowboys need DeMarcus Ware to have a great game & get to Eli Manning in the backfield if they are going to stop the Giants big passing game but that won't be easy against the Giants good pass protection that have only allowed 26 sacks this year, Dallas managed none last time they played the Giants. Manning should also have his full set of receivers to pass to & they are all very good with Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham both shrugging off minor injuries to back up breakout star Victor Cruz & cause Dallas problems in both the deep & sort threat. Manning has had to throw the ball an awful lot as his rush offense is ranked the league's worst with just 88.1 yards on the ground per game, they could really do with Brandon Jacobs using his size to wear down the Cowboys offensive line. In the backfield on defense the Giants are pretty, pretty, pretty bad & they've given up 58 plays of 20 yards or more which is a worry against the flashy Cowboys offense led by quarterback Tony Romo.

(Laurent Robinson can at least get himself a touchdown even though the Cowboys look likely to exit the playoff picture)

Romo is a good quarterback but is regarded as somewhat of a 'choker' when the pressure's on & Cowboys fans won't have been happy to see the pictures last week where he had to benched after injuring his hand whilst hitting an Eagles player's helmet when passing, that hand is supposed to still be swollen & the Giants will come after it. One of Romo's favourite targets Miles Austin has had a quietish season but Jason Witten & Dez Bryant have continued to be reliable & Laurent Robinson has really stepped up, we rate him the most likely scorer aginst the Giants who let in a lot of passing touchdowns & the 13/8 on offer with Coral for Robinson to score at anytime is like buying money. Overall though we have to side with the home team who have the psychological advantage of beating Dallas in a close overtime game just 3 weeks ago & have a superior passing game, backing the Giants with -3 points on the handicap at 10/11 means if they do win by just a field goal you'll get your stake returned, they can win by more than that to make it a very happy New Year.

Selections:
St. Louis Rams to score less than 13 points at 5/6 (Betfred) v San Francisco 49ers
Total points to be under 35.5 in 49ers v Rams game at 10/11 (general)
Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans Saints at 11/4 (general)
New York Giants to beat Dallas Cowboys with -3 points at 10/11 (general)
Laurent Robinson to score anytime at 13/8 (Coral) in Cowboys v Giants game