NFL Week 17 - Eli Manning to lead Giants to the playoffs

It's the final round of regular season games in the NFL meaning there are plenty of games that have little bearing on the playoff picture & punters need to be mindful of teams resting key players in preparation for the knockout stages. Other games have much bigger significance with them helping to decide the final few teams to go to the playoffs or potential seedings meaning teams get byes from the 1st week of action or gain homefield advantage. We've taken these factors along with overall & current form of the teams as well as where there are favourable matchups on offense & defense to find the best bets for this week.

(Justin Smith & his 49ers defense can smother up the Rams - it's not difficult)

We're starting out at St. Louis where the Rams host the San Francisco 49ers as the away team try to win to secure the NFC's No. 2 seed & that important first round bye, that shouldn't be in any danger of not happening as the 49ers have lost just 3 times this year whilst the Rams have won just twice. Last time the teams met the excellent 49ers defense shut out the Rams in a 26-0 win & St. Louis again failed to put a single point on the board last week against the Steelers. In terms of offensive yards per game the Rams are ranked 2nd last but in points gained they're the worst by a distance with just 166 all season at an average of 11.1 per game & they've scored 20 points or more just twice, that is not good news against this 49ers defense that lead the league in points given up a game at just 13.5 & only let in their first rushing touchdown of the year last week. The 49ers have the best run defense statistically & that's unfortunate for Rams running back Steven Jackson as usually so much of their game depends on him, they may also be without quarterback Sam Bradford who wasn't involved last week & may well be rested again here. So we've identified that the Rams aren't going to contribute too many points in this one, maybe a couple of field goals if they're lucky so we should back total Rams points to be under 13 at 5/6 with Betfred.

The 49ers aren't exactly offesive powerhouses themselves, instead relying on their ace defense led by top defensive end Justin Smith, they often settle for field goals & luckily have one of the league's best kickers in David Ackers. They should be able to score against the Rams as St.Louis are jsut average on defense but it's unlikely to be too high scoring for the 49ers either who may well bench their starters if they get a two touchdown lead. The total points line is set at 35.5 & as we can't seeSt. Louis contributing much at all backing under total points of 35.5 is the way to go.

(Happy - the Pathers' quarterback Cam Newton, he can be after this one too)

In a game that only has significance to the playoff picture if the 49ers have an unlikely loss in our first game the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers in the Superdome where the home side Saints have won all of their games so far. It's an interesting one as the Saints have been talking about resting their superstar quarterback Drew Brees (as they think it's so likely the 49ers will win their game), we don't think that's too likely as the man who's just broken the long held season passing yards record won't want to give that up a week later by not playing & allowing the Patriots' Tom Brady to surpass him. It is however a consideration & when takien into account with the Panthers big upswing in form where they've won 4 of their last 5 after having won just twice in the first 10 games it means that the Saints probably shouldn't be quite such hot favourites. Carolina's rookie quarterback has records of his own with most passing yards by a rookie & the most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in a single season, he's huge, quick & accurate & looks to have all the makings of a genuine star for the NFL for the next decade, if only his defense weren't giving up 25.6 yards a game they could have competed this year. Cam will want to show what he can do against New Orleans who are ranked 30th against the pass & this could be a shootout, we don't want to back over points as it is sett at a very high 54 but instead are going with a value pick of the Panthers to win at odds of 11/4.

(3rd most receiving yards in the league - the Giants' Victor Cruz)

The biggest game this week is the last one on the card & is between two of the glamour sides with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the New York Giants in a one game decider for the NFC East division & who gets to progress to the playoffs. The sides met just 3 weeks ago with the Giants eventually coming out victorious at Cowboys Stadium in a 37-34 win & the Giants are also coming off a nice win last week against city rivals the New York Jets whilst the Cowboys took a beating from the now eliminated form the playoffs Philadelphia Eagles. So clearly New York have the current momentum but overall even though both sides have 8-7 winning records the Giants have better overall form as the Cowboys have only beaten one side that currently hold a winning record against the 49ers back in week 2. The Giants meanwhile were looking like a very good side as they lost just twice in their first 8 before losing 4 consecutive games against some of the best sides around in the 49ers, Eagles, Saints & Packers, they've rallied again winning 3 of their last 4.

The Cowboys need DeMarcus Ware to have a great game & get to Eli Manning in the backfield if they are going to stop the Giants big passing game but that won't be easy against the Giants good pass protection that have only allowed 26 sacks this year, Dallas managed none last time they played the Giants. Manning should also have his full set of receivers to pass to & they are all very good with Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham both shrugging off minor injuries to back up breakout star Victor Cruz & cause Dallas problems in both the deep & sort threat. Manning has had to throw the ball an awful lot as his rush offense is ranked the league's worst with just 88.1 yards on the ground per game, they could really do with Brandon Jacobs using his size to wear down the Cowboys offensive line. In the backfield on defense the Giants are pretty, pretty, pretty bad & they've given up 58 plays of 20 yards or more which is a worry against the flashy Cowboys offense led by quarterback Tony Romo.

(Laurent Robinson can at least get himself a touchdown even though the Cowboys look likely to exit the playoff picture)

Romo is a good quarterback but is regarded as somewhat of a 'choker' when the pressure's on & Cowboys fans won't have been happy to see the pictures last week where he had to benched after injuring his hand whilst hitting an Eagles player's helmet when passing, that hand is supposed to still be swollen & the Giants will come after it. One of Romo's favourite targets Miles Austin has had a quietish season but Jason Witten & Dez Bryant have continued to be reliable & Laurent Robinson has really stepped up, we rate him the most likely scorer aginst the Giants who let in a lot of passing touchdowns & the 13/8 on offer with Coral for Robinson to score at anytime is like buying money. Overall though we have to side with the home team who have the psychological advantage of beating Dallas in a close overtime game just 3 weeks ago & have a superior passing game, backing the Giants with -3 points on the handicap at 10/11 means if they do win by just a field goal you'll get your stake returned, they can win by more than that to make it a very happy New Year.

Selections:
St. Louis Rams to score less than 13 points at 5/6 (Betfred) v San Francisco 49ers
Total points to be under 35.5 in 49ers v Rams game at 10/11 (general)
Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans Saints at 11/4 (general)
New York Giants to beat Dallas Cowboys with -3 points at 10/11 (general)
Laurent Robinson to score anytime at 13/8 (Coral) in Cowboys v Giants game

NFL Week 16 - Christmas can come early for strong home teams

It's the 2nd last round of games in the NFL regular season & we've got our preview & best bets for this group of games as usual, we were let down by the Titans last Sunday but the New England Patriots did us proud by taking apart the Broncos & Tim Tebow, that's where we're starting this week with the Christmas Eve games.

 (Big man Vince Wilfork will be coming after the Dolphins on nearly every play)

The Miami Dolphins are hugely improved after losing their first 7 games & in general looking useless at the same time, they've won 5 out of 7 since then but those wins have come agaainst some pretty ordinary outfits including the sliding Buffalo Bills twice, they'll find things a whole lot tougher against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have lost just 3 times this year & have won their last 6 putting up large point totals, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league with an atrocious secondary that they will want to upgrade in the off-season but the offense is doing more than enough to get the job done. 'Mr Perfect' Tom Brady is just about on course to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record & will be looking to put up big numbers against the Dolphins' 25th ranked pass defense, as usual he'll target his tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez as well as top receiver Wes Welker, we'd have thought they'll be putting up over 30 points in this one. The Dolphins have done extremely well in terms of points conceded but did let the Bills score 23 last week & the Eagles 26 the week before, their schedule has been fairly easy all year & although they've improved we've still been unimpressed especially on the offense other than the rejuvenated Reggie Bush at running back. Matt Moore never managed to establish himself at Carolina & they're now showing what they can do on offense with outstanding rookie Cam Newton as passer, he'll struggle to exploit the Patriots poor pass defense, he has an outstanding receiver in Brandon Marshall but very little else of note in the receiving corps. The Dolphins have only scored more than 30 points 3 times this year & for that reason we're happy to take the Patriots with a -9.5 point handicap, that's just a touchdown & a field goal the Patriots need to win by & they're pretty formidable here in Foxborough.

(The No.1 ranked Steelers defense can ensure this is a low scoring encounter)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens over who will be top dog in the AFC North & they'll be pleased to be up against just about the league's worst team in the St. Louis Rams this week as they aim to win out. The key to this game is that Pittsburgh are likely to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger now until the playoffs as he's played large parts of the season with various injuries & the won't want to aggravate his current high ankle sprain any more, that means the Steelers wil likely run the ball much more often than usual & the clock will continue to run meaning less scoring opportunities. 3 of the Steelers last 4 games have had 23 or less points in them, the Rams have had only 2 of their last 7 games go over 40 points as they tend to struggle to put up any points at all & it won't be any easier against the league's best defense. Basically this game looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring of the year & the points line being set at 37.5 is too high & under should be backed.

 (Cedric Benson can gain some yards on the ground for the Bengals)

Finally the Arizona Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bengals & their dream rookie receiver/quarterback partnership of A.J. Green & Andy Dalton but even though the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 they won't have it their own way here in Ohio. 4 of those wins for the Cardinals were at home & one was against the dreadful Rams & the other came against the underperforming Eagles, they are pretty solid defensively but haven't scored more than 28 points all season & that was in the 1st game. The Bengals aren't particularly high scorers either but have done the business in every game they'd have been expected to leading to them holding an 8 & 6 record even though they are in a division with the Steelers & Ravens. The Bengals are also good at defending the run & that's where the Cardinals' offensive strength lies with Beanie Wells tending to rush hard & often, if the Bengals can take that away then there's little to worry about with their QB Skelton even though he has Larry 'Inspector Gadget Arms' Fitzgerald to pass to. At home the advantage definitely lies with the Bengals & they can win this at reasonable odds of 1/2 with Skybet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -9.5 points at 10/11 (general)
St.Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers to be under 37.5 Total Points at 10/11 (general)
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Arizona Cardinals at 1/2 (Skybet)

NFL Week 12 - Falcons to swoop on Vikings

We're really on the run in to the playoffs now with half of the divisions still wide open whilst four top place spots are either in or virtually in the bag, there are also the wild card playoff places to fight for & it means that virtually every game has a bearing on the championship picture. As always we're looking for the best value available in the week's games, we look at a wide range of markets to see where the bookmakers have got it wrong allowing us & you to exploit to make a tidy profit.

 (Evergreen Tony Gonzalez can celebrate another touchdown for Atlanta on their way to a clear victory over Minnesota)

The Atlanta Falcons are in a battle with New Orleans to secure 1st place in the NFC South & will be wanting to press their claims when they host the Minnesota Vikings who are floundering in the tough NFC North with just two wins all season & that was against poor sides in Arizona & Carolina. At the Georgia Dome the Falcons are a pretty scary team to face, they have lost twice at home this year but that was hosting Green Bay & New Orleans, they've only conceded over 20 points in one of their last five games after some slightly suspect defensive displays early on in the season, that improvement spells trouble for a Vikings side that rank 23rd in points scored. The Vikings will do well to get anything going offensively as their star player running back Adrian Peterson looks to be doubtful for the game & their passing game only ranks 28th in yards gained. Defensively Minnesota are very average & they don't tend to create many turnover opportunities, the Falcons have a great balanced offense & will look to take advantage with Michael Turner in the running game & by passing to Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez. Tight end Gonzalez is now 35 but is playing outstanding football as he has been since 1997, he's Matt Ryan's favourite target in the end zone & the Vikings give up more passing than rushing touchdowns, with 7 touchdowns already Gonzalez looks ace value to score the 1st touchdown at 7/1. With Peterson out it really is difficult to see how Minnesota can hurt the home side & Atlanta can cover the -8.5 point handicap on offer at Boylesports with ease.

For our second bet we're going to keep things exceedingly simple, the St. Louis Rams have scored a league worst 12 points per game & opponents the Arizona Cardinals just 19 a game (24th best), neither side is too bad defensively & this looks sure to be a very low scoring game, the under 39.5 total points should be taken at odds of 10/11. The sides met in week 9 & there were 32 points total, that included overtime & there's no reason to suggest it will be different here, since then the Cardinals have been in games with 38 & 30 points & St. Louis in games with 25 & 31, neither side have a chance of getting to the playoffs & this could & hopefully will be a very dull affair.

(Top rookie Ben Tate can sprint into the end zone for the Texans against the Jaguars)

Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans suffered dreadful news after their big win at Tampa Bay with quarterback Matt Schaub ruled out for the season with a foot injury that needs to be operated on. Fortunately the Texans running game has been excellent, unsurprising as they have a total star in Arian Foster & he has been backed up by rookie Ben Tate who has had a very good first season, scoring 3 touchdowns already with two of those coming in the last two games. The Texans have great receivers especially with Andre Johnson coming back to fitness but with backup quarterback Matt Leinart now playing they will want to keep things simple & take the pressure off him by running the ball more, that should mean that Tate is even more involved & Ladbrokes offer a standout 14/1 for Tate to score the 1st touchdown plus 21/10 that he scores at anytime.

Selections:
Atlanta Falcons to beat Minnesota Vikings with -8.5 points (Boylesports)
Tony Gonzalez to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Minnesota Vikings v Atlanta Falcons game
Arizona Cardinals v St. Louis Rams to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Ben Tate to score 1st Touchdown at 14/1 & to score at anytime at 21/10 (Ladbrokes) in Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars game

NFL Week 11 - Rams can keep Charging

Week 11 in the NFL got underway with the Broncos upsetting the New York Jets on Thursday night meaning our bet with the Broncos getting +6 points was easily covered, the Packers smashed Minnesota to bring in the -13 point handicap bet on Monday & we had a 9/1 touchdown scorer last Sunday & we're feeling pretty confident we can find a few more winners in this week's games. As ever get in touch to let us know what you think either by leaving a comment or by following us on twitter @likebuyingmoney

(Steven Jackson can run the Rams to victory)

The St. Louis Rams did the business for us last weekend by seeing off the poor Cleveland Browns in a tight encounter with star receiver Brandon Lloyd getting the only touchdown, this week they face the marginally better Seattle Seahawks but the Rams can put another W on the board by winning this one. Seattle picked up a big upset win by triumphing against the Baltimore Ravens last weekend but the Ravens only consistency this year appears to have been their inconsistency & that was still only the Seahawks third win of the year & they tend to be a much stronger side at home. Seattle had quarterback Matt Hasselbeck leave for Tennessee in the summer & he's shown how good he is with some nice performances there, replacement Tavaris Jackson meanwhile has been horrible having thrown just 6 touchdowns & 9 interceptions, he's also been sacked 22 times showing he's not getting much help from his O-Line & tends to hold onto the ball a little too long. He has been unable to link up with fellow ex-Viking Sidney Rice as he would like to have & it's a big reason they rank a lowly 29th in the offensive yards per game category, they're also pretty lightweight on the ground with running back Marshawn Lynch averaging under 4 yards a carry, he's been much better in his last two games with a big 244 yards but that seemed to come from nowhere. They've said they want to run the ball against the Rams & they have been dreadful at defending the run but the Seahawks offense doesn't inspire confidence on any level having only scored over 20 points on 3 occasions this year.

The Rams gained just their second win of the year with that victory against Cleveland but they've been slowly improving & were very unfortunate to lose against Arizona in the previous week & they could easily have been looking at coming into this game after three straight wins. St.Louis have been plagued by injuries this year & it has really affected quarterback Sam Bradford's game having thrown just 4 TDs for the year & having got banged up & recently sat out a couplf of games, there's a slight doubt regarding Bradford's ankle this week but he took part in practoce & should play. Sam has also looked better in the last 3 games having completed over 60% of his passes although he's thrown a pick in each one also, he was sacked just once last week & if his young offensive line can do a good job again this week he could put up some reasonable yards. Clearly the Rams main offensive weapon is huge running back Steven Jackson who has run for 100+ yards in his last 3 games, he can run over Seattle's defense which relies on a team ethic rather than individual defensive stars. On balance with the Rams gradual improvement & Seattle being much better at home it looks like St.Louis can grind one out here & odds of 4/6 seem fair. The best other bet in this game is to back under total points of 39.5, in Seattle's last 4 games just one has gone over that total & just 2 in the last 6 for the Rams, neither side are good at putting points on the board & 5/6 for under 39.5 points with Victor Chandler is value.

(Brian Urlacher - he's big & scary & can help shut down the Chargers offense)

A team that are really starting to look good are the Chicago Bears who host the San Diego Chargers who are in a downward spiral having lost their last 4 after starting 4&1, the Chargers need to start turning their season around now but a trip up to the Great Lakes is not what the doctor ordered. The Bears had a tough start to the season facing off against the Falcons, Saints & Packers in their first 3 games, they won one of those & have lost just once since against the Lions when they were on top form & gained revenge against Detroit with a great display last week here at Soldier Field. Running back Matt Forte continues to be brilliant & he's leading the team in reception yards as well as rushing yards, the Bears use Forte on so many plays but try to keep him fit by using big Marion Barber on short yardage running situations & that helps stop Forte from getting too battered & bruised, they would have worries if he got injured but he's looking great now. Returner Devin Hester has broken all sorts of return records & will be licking his lips at the thought of facing the woeful San Diego special teams & could have a big game (as usual). Jay Cutler has been consistent at quarterback now that he's got the protection he needs & has answered a lot of the undue criticism he received at the end of last year, with just 6 interceptions thrown this year he won't give the Chargers defense much to work with. On defense the Bears have been great against the run ranking 2nd in yards allowed & that will put pressure on Philip Rivers to throw the ball, Rivers has been uncharacteristically poor this year having thrown 15 picks already. Rivers was just about considered an elite QB but this year has been disappointing at the least & if he goes to the air here he has to be wary of any short passes up the middle as the Bears have brilliant linebackers in Brian Urlacher & Lance Briggs. The Chargers do have weapons on offense with Floyd, Gates & Jackson all being great receivers & two very good runners in Tolbert & Mathews but with the running game likely to be limited & Rivers off-colour it doesn't look good for them here. The Bears can be backed giving away 3.5 points on the handicap but can cover it at odds of 10/11. In the touchdown scorer markets it seems that Marion Barber is still being underestimated & can be backed at 7/5 to score at anytime & 10/1 to score the 1st Touchdown of the game.

Selections:
St.Louis Rams to beat Seattle Seahawks at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Seattle Seahawks v St. Louis Rams game to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (Victor Chandler)
Chicago Bears to beat San Diego Chargers with -3.5 at 10/11 (general)
Marion Barber to score 1st touchdown at 10/1 & at anytime at 7/5 (Paddy Power)