NFL Wildcard Weekend Saturday - Vikings to keep pace with Packers

After 17 weeks of pounding regular season action the NFL playoffs are about to get underway, whilst New England, Denver, San Francisco & Atlanta manged to secure the top seeds & they avoid this wildcard weekend where the other 8 teams battle it out for the right to face those top seeds next week. It's a pretty good weekend of action with no 'dead certs' in the 4 games but we're looking at each of them starting with Saturday's two games here as we look to find the betting value.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

The first game we take a look at is between the slumping Houston Texans & the Cincinnati Bengals who've made the playoffs after winning 7 of their last 8 games to end with a 10&6 record.

(Matt Schaub will be looking for the win in his first ever post-season game)

Houston were our outright picks for Super Bowl glory at the start of the year & that was looking a pretty good bet as they assembled an 11&1 winning record by week 13 & looked set to claim top seed in the AFC & home advantage in their playoff games but they took a beating in Foxboro at the hands o the Patriots & seemed to suffer ending up losing twice more but this game may give them a real chance of rallying & getting a rematch with the Patriots. Although the Bengals look to be the team on the up when you take a look at the teams they've beaten it becomes a little less impressive with the three teams they've beaten with winning records all somewhat out of form at the time & the Bengals have been beating teams they should beat but losing to the teams they shouldn't for the past couple of seasons, they rarely seem to be able to spring a surprise against the stronger teams.

Houston have a side with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with J.J. Watt their defensive star & a strong candidate for the defensive player of the year award - Watt along with Antonio Smith get a lot of sacks & the Bengals' offensive line isn't great at protecting passer Andy Dalton, they've given up 46 sacks & rank 26th (of 32) in the category. On offense Houston have a good passer in Matt Schaub, he's not spectacular but has good fundamentals in all aspects of the game & is a good decision maker, he also has one of the league's best receivers in Andre Johnson to throw to & Johnson has at times looked close to his best this season, getting the AFC's offensive player of the month for November, it's a pity they don't really have depth at the position as they can become a little predictable. The rushing attack is where the Texans excel & Arian Foster is an exceptional running back who can get success against any side.

(Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have really stepped up to the mark for Cincinnati this season)

The Bengals have an exceptional talent in receiver A.J. Green & he'll be looking to take advantage of the Texans' secondary that is definitely the weak point of their defense & has even looked a little confused at times in recent weeks with blown coverages - they can't afford to do that as A.J. will be sure to take it to the house & add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Bengals are also pretty sharp on defense, ranking 6th in yards & 8th in points given up with a big improvement from week 10 onwards where they restricted opponents to 20 points or less in all of their last 8 games (although it has to be noted they didn't face any offensive powerhouses apart from maybe the Giants who were in & out all season). Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have been coming up with the sacks for the Bengals & although they allow too many themselves they rank 3rd in sacks gained on defense & will be targeting the Texans' rookie guard Ben Jones who could be a weak link. The Bengals don't really have anything to worry Houston on he ground, we're unconcerned with BenJarvus Gren-Ellis's running threat & Houston will be too & that'll mean their pass rush will be turned up to 11 & could prove the difference. We like he Texans to win but the point spread looks about right so we'll target the points total instead, Ladbrokes put it at 43.5 & 7 of Cinci's last 8 games have been 44 points or under & half of Houston's games haven't hit that either so the value has to be backing under 43.5 points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

We've an NFC North divisional match up in the late night game on Saturday as the Vikings travel to take on the Green Bay Packers - they only played this last week (in Minnesota) & the Vikings were victorious yet the Packers are this weekend's shortest priced team to win.

(Adrian Peterson's wonderful season could be drawing to a close but he'll give Green Bay plenty of trouble)

Home field advantage is clearly a big factor here & Green Bay prevailed 23-14 in the game here in week 13 & their only loss at Lambeau all year came in their first game of the season against the hard running 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is an awesome talent at quarterback & his refusal to focus too much on any one receiver means that opposing defenses struggle to lock down targets & add to that his ability to extend plays he comes out right near the top of the tree when assessing all NFL passers. Green Bay do allow Rodgers to get sacked too often (51 times this year) & it could lead to him getting injured at one point but it doesn't appear to have hurt them so far & they are excellent in the red zone, ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency when getting within 20 yards of the end zone. The Packers running game is also slightly improved this year although no individual back has been putting up big numbers, they're most likely to try to pass the ball anyway as that's where their weapons lie & the Vikings rank 24th against the pass.

The Vikings don't have the versatility of some teams but they do have an incredible running back in Adrian Peterson who has come back from major knee surgery to put up the 2nd biggest rushing yards season in league history. AP has also had a lot of success against the Packers in both games this season, running up big numbers even though the defense know the ball is likely to be handed off, he's also taken the  ball into the end zone for touchdowns 12 times this yea as well as moving the ball up the field with regularity. In terms of passing the Vikings clearly aren't as much of a threat although Christian Ponder has improved in his 2nd season, he is a little predictable though with Percy Harvin his favourite target apart from when in scoring range when Kyle Rudolph's number invariably gets called. Rudolph is a huge tight end & at 6"6 it doesn't matter who he goes up against he'll have a favourable match-up so he's an obvious target when in short yardage situations. Bad news for the Vikings this week is that Ponder's throwing arm is reportedly sore & that may mean they run even more often, that may not be a bad thing as Green Bay's defense is heavily reliant on causing turnovers through interceptions & running the ball eliminates that threat. Green Bay should score enough to win this game but they lost to Minnesota last week & only won by 9 in the previous game so take the Vikings with +9.5 points to win on the handicap/points spread.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)
Minnesota Vikings to beat Green Bay Packers with +9.5 point handicap (Paddy Power & 32Red)

NFL Week 11 - Brutish Bengals won't bow down to Chiefs

There are some big games between bitter rivals this week in the NFL, not least Baltimore at Pittsburgh where the Steelers have to overcome being without quarterback 'Big Ben' Roethelisberger & also an intriguing game between the Colts & Patriots where star rookie Andrew Luck comes up against passing legend Tom Brady. We're concentrating on a couple of games with teams on the verge of a playoff push coming up against some of this season's real stugglers.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City come into this game with just one win from 9 games so far & although they showed improvement to hold out until overtime against the Steelers last week this looks a tough ask against the Bengals who bounced back after 4 successive losses to slam the New York Giants 31-13 last Sunday.

(The Bengals' A.J. Green is fast becoming a superstar wide receiver)

The Bengals possess the NFL's best young wide receiver in A.J.Green & him & quarterback Andy Dalton have a great understanding with them combining for at least one touchdown in their last 8 games including 3 touchdown catches of 50+ yards showing the deep threat the Bengals have. A.J. Green stretches the field which means that Andrew Hawkins & tight end Jermaine Gresham tend to find space in the middle of the field although the Bengals' running game hasn't been up to the same standard as their passing. BenJarvus Green-Ellis joined from the Patriots in thee summer & is a perfectly dependable running back in terms of keeping hold of the ball but he is hardly explosive & is averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season. They've been just average defensively this year ranking 19th on passing yards given up & 20th on rushing  given up too many points, a positive is how aggressive they've been & they've managed to sack opposing quarterbacks 27 times so far ranking joint 4th.

The Chiefs have been having a miserable season & are the perfect example to hold up when highlighting just how crucial the quarterback position is in the NFL with Matt Cassel & backup Brady Quinn combining to throw just 6 touchdowns to 15 interceptions so far as the Chiefs have limped sorrily along. Jamaal Charles has been smashing into opposition defenses after coming back from injury & the Chiefs rank 4th overall in rushing yards. he running game just hasn't been enough though to back up their weak passing & in both areas they struggle to get the ball into the end zone even when they do move it up the field & rank just 30th in points scored. On defense they've fared reasonably against the pass & we think their cornerback Brandon Flowers is a real talent but they've only come up with 15 sacks  rank 23rd against the run. Unlike some teams that can rank statistically poorly but manage to hold teams when they get close to the end zone the Chiefs  allow too many touchdowns & are given up 28.4 points a game which looks like trouble when facing what can be a powerful Cincinnati offense. The Bengals are only giving up 3.5 points on the handicap here & that looks an ace bet, especially when you consider they travelled to the Super Bowl champs last week & beat them by 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

This game is a NFC South divisional rematch from week one where the Buccaneers prevailed in a low scoring encounter, Tampa Bay are making a push for the playoffs with a 5&4 record so far whilst the Panthers are looking to rescue their season with just two wins, both coming against inconsistent opponents.

(Vincent Jackson has already become a firm favourite for Tampa Bay fans & can score in this one)

Carolina's big problem this year has been the eratic performances of their quarterback Cam Newton who picked up the offensive rookie of the year award last season. 'Super' Cam has thrown 10 picks to 8 touchdowns & he's coughed the ball up for 9 fumbles too & at times has looked moody & far from a team player, it's difficult to ascertain whether that's an accurate assessment but it is problematic as quarterbacks are most effective when taking a leadership position. The Panthers are averaging over 7 points less per game this year than last & have faded back more on offense than the slight improvement they've made on the defensive side of the ball. So much of the Panthers' offense rests on Cam's shoulders because he's also their leading rusher with Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams both having ordinary seasons at tailback. Carolina don't look to have any defensive stars but are performing better as a unit & have improved after giving up a league high 8.4 yards per pass in 2011, bringing that down to 7.2 yards in 2012.

Tampa Bay are a strange team in some respects as on defense they rank 1st against the run but that's because teams know they are so easy to pass against with a weak pass rush & they rank stone last giving up 321.3 yards through the air per game. Even though their defense is clearly weak the Bucs have got themselves a winning record because they have a few key players on offense playing exceptionally well with rookie running back Doug Martin stunning defenses with an average of 95.8 yards per game & he's bagged himself 8 touchdowns so far this year. Young passer Josh Freeman has looked a lot more solid this year after a very wobbly 2011 & that seems to be down to him staying in the pocket a bit more & playing more of a classic quarterback role, it's shown in his touchdowns to interceptions (18-5) compared to last year (22-29), he'll feel that he can hit his targets in this one against the average Carolina defense. Vincent Jackson has joined from San Diego & made an instant impact giving Freeman a big physical target to aim for along with the versatile Mike Williams & the highly dependable tight end Dallas Clark who came in from the Colts. They do struggle to put pressure on opposition quarterbacks & have given up too many points even though they'v been scoring well themselves, in the Bucs' last 5 games we've seen points totals of 48, 63, 53, 74 & 58 - it suggests we could be in for a high scoring one here especially if Cam Newton can take advantage with a little less pressure when passing. The total points line has been set at 47.5 by Betfred for this one & we can see it going way over that if both teams' defenses continue to leak yards & points. In terms of touchdown scorers Vincent Jackson has been going nicely with 6 this year & odds of 8/1 for him to grab the first one look value.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3.5 handicap at Evens (Various)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers to total more than 47.5 points at 10/11 (Betfred)
Vincent Jackson to score 1st Touchdown in Tampa Bay v Carolina game at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 6 - Bengals to beat up Browns

We're still smarting after the Texans couldn't beat the Jets by 9 points or more on Monday night even with a performance that should have been just enough but anyway we're back with selections for Sunday as we look to bounce back. The season long bets of the Texans for the Super Bowl & the 49ers to win the NFC are still looking good & there should be plenty of opportunities for nice bets between now & the post season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

In the first game we're taking a look at we have a divisional rivalry as the AFC North sees Cincinnati travel to take on the NFL's only team without a win in 2012, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland are a pretty poor side as evidenced by their record this year & just 4 wins, against weak sides, last year & they've already lost to the Bengals this time around just 4 games ago with Cincinnati prevailing 37-24.

(A stupendous catch - all in a day's work for A.J. Green)

The Browns have rookies playing at their two key skill positions on offense with Brandon Weeden at qyarterback & Trent Richardson at tailback, both were selected in the first round of the draft but Richardson has started at lot better than Weeden. Brandon Weeden is stone last in the quarterback ratings this year at a lowly 64.5 & although he had his best display when facing the Bengals (2 TDs & no interceptions) he can't be relied upon when the pressure's on. Rookie passers struggling is nothing new & it is all a learning curve for Weeden, the Browns will try to take the pressure off by running the ball with Richardson & although he's done reasonably their other backs have offered next to nothing. With the Brown's pretty lightweight offense they've needed their defense to step up but that side of the game has been weak too, ranking 29th in yards given up & they don't really have any defensive stars other thancornerback Joe Haden who returns this week from suspension.

The Browns need Haden back  because he'll be up against one of the very best receivers around in the Bengals' A.J. Green, Green already has 4 touchdowns & is pushing 100 receiving yards a game as he continues to form a fine partnership with passer Andy Dalton. In contrast to Brandon Weeden, Dalton is having a fine season & has thrown 9 strikes to 6 picks & is gaining an impressive average of 8 yards per pass - he'll fancy himself to have more success in this one. The Bengals are just average defensively & they don't tend to make explosive plays (they've gained just one interception all season) but average means not bad & they have little to fear today. We think the Bengals should be hotter favourites than they are & odds of 10/13 for them to pick up the win are fair indeed even though playing on the road.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

In this game we again like the look of the road team as the Colts travel to take on the New York Jets who put up a spirited but ultimately fruitless display against the Texans on Monday night. Last week while the Jets were being beaten, Indianapolis managed to gain a win over one of the league's heavyweights in the Green Bay Packers & number one draft pick Andrew Luck had a great game as he continues to look much more experienced than the rookie he is.

(Andrew Luck can continue to impress against the weakened Jets)

Although the Jets did only lose by 6 to maybe the best team in the league on Monday that was in part thanks to a 100 yard kick return & those don't come around too often, it also remains to be seen whether they can get themselves up for consecutive games as they've been abysmal at times. The Jets' injury problems remain & Mark Sanchez still looks a suspect passer & their running game continues to be ineffective with their number one runnig back Shonn Greene averagin just 2.9 yards per attempt. Indianapolis will be sending their star defender Dwight Freeney after Sanchez making it even more likely he'll chuck some passes up to be intercepted, Freeney was injured in week one & made a real difference on his return last week.

The Colts have been decent offensively with Luck's passing helping them rank 10th overall in yards gained & 6th in passing yards - he can also take off on the ground making him a very dangerous player & it means he's a good compliment to rusher Donald Brown who has a decent average yards per carry of 4.0. Reggie Wayne has been having a monstrous season with 506 receiving yards in just the 4 games & he'll look to beat Rodgers-Cromartie this week just like every other cornerback he's come up against. Other than their loss to Jacksonville the Colts have performed well considering they gained just two wins last year & they are underrated today, backing them with a useful 3.5 point lead on the handicap looks the way to go.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Cleveland Browns at 10/13 (Skybet & Paddy Power)
Indianapolis Colts to beat New York Jets with +3.5 points on handicap at 5/6 (Various)

Drew Brees can march Saints past Detroit & on to Super Bowl

So the 17 weeks of the regular season have passed us by & there's been the usual great plays, not-so-great plays, unexpected successes & disappointing losses & we're down to the 12 teams that are still in with a chance of Super Bowl glory. Defending champs Green Bay as well as San Francisco, New England & Baltimore get to sit this round out as they finished the year with the best records in their conferences but we've got 4 great wildcard round matches to determine who gets to visit those teams next weekend  for a place in the Conference Championship games. We're taking a look at all of the games during the playoffs but are starting out with Saturday's 2 games to find the best bets available & we'll also be picking our outright bets for the Conference Championships & the Super Bowl here.

(Arian Foster with 12 TDs already this year - you've guessed it, he's getting another here)

First up are our pre-season tip the Houston Texans against the tough AFC North's third placed team the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of rookie quarterbacks with the Texans' 3rd string passer T.J. Yates & the  Bengals' impressive 2nd round draft pick Andy Dalton. This is the Texans first ever trip to the playoffs in their 10 year history & with a bit more luck on the injury front they would have been strong contenders for the outright win, they lost quarterback Matt Schaub in week 10, then his backup Matt Leinart in their next game, star defender Mario Williams has been out since week 5 & arguably the best wide receiver in the league Andre Johnson's played in just 7 games. Johnson is in for this one which is a boost & clearly the Texans are a solid all round team as they ranked 2nd overall on defensive yards given up behind only the legendary Steelers D, they beat the Bengals on the road in week 14 to seal their playoff place & although they lost theirr last 3 games they didn't look to be playing so hard once they got that playoff spot. The Texans don't give up many big passing plays which will help blunt some of A.J. Green's threat & are excellent against the run so won't be worried by Cedric Benson who's had a solid but unspectacular season. For a team with a very inexperienced quarterback Houston still have a chance of navigating the playoffs thanks to their excellent running game (ranked 2nd) led by star Arian Foster & ably backed up by the ever-improving Ben Tate, Foster will almost certainly score at some point  the short odds of 2/5 should be taken & the juicy 5/1 for him to score first. The Texans should win thanks to their solid defense but we can't take odds of 1/2 so we'll stick to Foster scoring & stay happy that our bet at the start of the season for the Super Bowl at 28/1 is still in with a chance.

(Jimmy Graham can get at least one touchdown in a Saints victory)

In the late Saturday game the Detroit Lions face a monstrous task in taking on 2009 Super Bowl winners the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. They've already faced off here once, in week 13 & the Saints were just too good for the Lions who've had a decent but far from outstanding season with most of their wins coming against lower class opposition & tending to struggle against the better teams. Detroit have a very good young passer in Matt Stafford & this year's outstanding wide receiver Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson, he's their standout star but that does allow teams to come up with a game plan against them. With New Orleans it's tough to pick out a receiving 'star' as Brees tends to spread his passes out with 7 players having 30+ receptions, tight end Jimmy Graham's as close as it gets to number one with 99 grabs & 11 touchdowns, at 4/7 he's a reasonable price to score at anytime. Drew Brees has just been incredible this year & is now the holder of the all-time single season passing yards record finally surpassing Dan Marino's 1984 record, the offensive line keep him safe & with enough time to pick his passes, he should have another good game here. As great as the Saints passing game is they also have a pretty potent ground game with their triple threat backs Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles & Pierre Thomas, that excellent offense makes up for a defense that's only average but probably looks worse statistically due to teams having to chase the Saints when trailing late on. In 12 of New Orleans' 13 wins they were winning at half time so the best bet looks to be backing the Saints to be winning at half time & full time at 2/5, it's certainly more backable than getting on them at 2/11.

Like we said we already got on the Texans in pre-season but they look to have been too hard hit by injuries to go all the way now but our pick in the 2nd game the New Orleans Saints look to be the team to take on the Packers in the NFC & at odds of 16/5 to win the conference look a great value bet. They won't have to face Green Bay until the Championship game if the Packers themselves progress that far, we don't think it'll be a problem for the Saints as they'll beat Detroit here & can take the 49ers apart next week, if the Packers matchup happens it'll be a shootout & we don't mind having Drew Brees on our side!

(Isaac Redman (with the ball!) can step up & help the Steelers tough it out through the playoffs)

In the AFC we're starting to like the look of the Pittsburgh Steelers as outright favourites the New England Patriots look to be a hugely vulnerable side after coming back from big deficits to weak teams in the past 3 weeks. Pittsburgh already beat them this year & should prevail with ease against Tebow & the Broncos on Sunday, if Houston win the Steelers will go straight to Foxborough otherwise they'll be up against deadly rivals the Ravens. Baltimore did the double over them in the regular season but the Steelers are supremely confident they can turn that around in a one-off game & there's no way we want to be with the Ravens for winning big games whilst they have the mediocre Joe Flacco under centre. If the Steelers face New England they can shut down their explosive offense whilst still putting up points themselves & they can come out on top of any tough battles against the Ravens, at 5/1 for the AFC Pittsburgh must be backed. The Steelers biggest problem is running back Rashard Mendenhall picking up a season ending injury in their last game but we've never felt he's a franchise running back, Isaac Redman can step up & they're basically a passing team now anyway.

(Drew Brees is looking awesome & he can grab the Lombardi trophy just like 2 years ago)

So, we're going for a Steelers/Saints final with the double paying out just over 24/1 with Victor Chandler, Black & Gold supporters would be happy with that game & it would be hugely exciting to see the best offense match up against the best defense & see which comes out on top. They say defenses win championships but we're starting to think the Saints can follow up their success two years ago & they're our outright pick at 5/1, if they do win it's almost inevitable that Drew Brees will get the MVP award & backing him at a nice price of 7/1 in Ladbrokes Super Bowl MVP market is a good a bet as any.

Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat Detroit lions at half time & full time at 2/5 (William Hill)
Jimmy Graham to score at anytime at 4/7 (Skybet) Lions v Saints game
Arian Foster to score 1st touchdown at 5/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 2/5 (Coral) Bengals v Texans game

Playoff outright bets:
New Orleans Saints to win the NFC at 16/5 (Victor Chandler) & Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC at 5/1 (Victor Chandler) with a double paying out odds of just over 24/1
New Orleans Saints to win Super Bowl at 5/1 (various)
Drew Brees to be the Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 16 - Christmas can come early for strong home teams

It's the 2nd last round of games in the NFL regular season & we've got our preview & best bets for this group of games as usual, we were let down by the Titans last Sunday but the New England Patriots did us proud by taking apart the Broncos & Tim Tebow, that's where we're starting this week with the Christmas Eve games.

 (Big man Vince Wilfork will be coming after the Dolphins on nearly every play)

The Miami Dolphins are hugely improved after losing their first 7 games & in general looking useless at the same time, they've won 5 out of 7 since then but those wins have come agaainst some pretty ordinary outfits including the sliding Buffalo Bills twice, they'll find things a whole lot tougher against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have lost just 3 times this year & have won their last 6 putting up large point totals, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league with an atrocious secondary that they will want to upgrade in the off-season but the offense is doing more than enough to get the job done. 'Mr Perfect' Tom Brady is just about on course to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record & will be looking to put up big numbers against the Dolphins' 25th ranked pass defense, as usual he'll target his tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez as well as top receiver Wes Welker, we'd have thought they'll be putting up over 30 points in this one. The Dolphins have done extremely well in terms of points conceded but did let the Bills score 23 last week & the Eagles 26 the week before, their schedule has been fairly easy all year & although they've improved we've still been unimpressed especially on the offense other than the rejuvenated Reggie Bush at running back. Matt Moore never managed to establish himself at Carolina & they're now showing what they can do on offense with outstanding rookie Cam Newton as passer, he'll struggle to exploit the Patriots poor pass defense, he has an outstanding receiver in Brandon Marshall but very little else of note in the receiving corps. The Dolphins have only scored more than 30 points 3 times this year & for that reason we're happy to take the Patriots with a -9.5 point handicap, that's just a touchdown & a field goal the Patriots need to win by & they're pretty formidable here in Foxborough.

(The No.1 ranked Steelers defense can ensure this is a low scoring encounter)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens over who will be top dog in the AFC North & they'll be pleased to be up against just about the league's worst team in the St. Louis Rams this week as they aim to win out. The key to this game is that Pittsburgh are likely to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger now until the playoffs as he's played large parts of the season with various injuries & the won't want to aggravate his current high ankle sprain any more, that means the Steelers wil likely run the ball much more often than usual & the clock will continue to run meaning less scoring opportunities. 3 of the Steelers last 4 games have had 23 or less points in them, the Rams have had only 2 of their last 7 games go over 40 points as they tend to struggle to put up any points at all & it won't be any easier against the league's best defense. Basically this game looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring of the year & the points line being set at 37.5 is too high & under should be backed.

 (Cedric Benson can gain some yards on the ground for the Bengals)

Finally the Arizona Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bengals & their dream rookie receiver/quarterback partnership of A.J. Green & Andy Dalton but even though the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 they won't have it their own way here in Ohio. 4 of those wins for the Cardinals were at home & one was against the dreadful Rams & the other came against the underperforming Eagles, they are pretty solid defensively but haven't scored more than 28 points all season & that was in the 1st game. The Bengals aren't particularly high scorers either but have done the business in every game they'd have been expected to leading to them holding an 8 & 6 record even though they are in a division with the Steelers & Ravens. The Bengals are also good at defending the run & that's where the Cardinals' offensive strength lies with Beanie Wells tending to rush hard & often, if the Bengals can take that away then there's little to worry about with their QB Skelton even though he has Larry 'Inspector Gadget Arms' Fitzgerald to pass to. At home the advantage definitely lies with the Bengals & they can win this at reasonable odds of 1/2 with Skybet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -9.5 points at 10/11 (general)
St.Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers to be under 37.5 Total Points at 10/11 (general)
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Arizona Cardinals at 1/2 (Skybet)

NFL Week 14 - Under under under points Ho!

We're into week 14 of the season & there are just 4 games left in the regular season before the playoffs begin & we start suffering from the symptoms of Super Bowl fever with real ferocity, there's still plenty of football to be played though & we've got near enough a full season of form & stats to help inform our betting now. We've had a decent season so far & Houston are still rumbling along even without a quarterback carrying our 25/1 pre-season bet, our best bets for this week are below. As ever get in on the conversation by leaving comments or following us on Twitter, it's rather fun & the more people that take part the better, you can find us at @likebuyingmoney & it'll help you keep up to date with our latest posts.

 (It's all about rookie defenders wearing no.99 this week - first up is the 49ers excellent Aldon Smith)

We're starting off with a team that has lost just twice this season in the San Francisco 49ers who travel to face the Arizona Cardinals in the desert, the Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 but we still think that the Super Bowl finalists from 2009 are a bit rubbish & the 49ers deserve to be strong favourites here. Arizona's recent upturn in form has come by beating the notorious for being poor in December Cowboys last week, a team in freefall & without their 1st choice quarterback the Philadelphia Eagles & the very bad indeed St Louis Rams who have just two wins all season. In between those wins they took a 23-7 beating from this game's opponents the 49ers, they got a measly 229 offensive yards in that game against the league's best defense in terms of points given up & it shouldn't get much better for them offense in this one.

San Francisco seem to be taking real pleasure in shutting down the opposition especially on the ground, they've conceded 200 less rushing yards than any other team in the league. The linebackers deserve a lot of credit for how well the 49ers have played & are surely the best set in the league, inside linebackers NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis (questionable for this one) rank 5th & 15th in the league in terms of tackles made & rookie Aldon Smith has just 23 tackles but 9.5 sacks as he's been allowed to use his speed & power to hunt down quarterbacks to rank 8th in the league in sacks made. On offense Alex Smith has really stepped up & is looking after the ball well with just 5 interceptions thrown, he's also been using his feet well running 38 times & averaging 3.8 yards a try, it suggests he's making better decisions when under pressure rather than throing the ball up there for potential picks. The offensive line have still allowed Smith to be sacked 34 times which is way too much but they are built to help the running game & have done that well with Frank Gore continuing to monster teams at times whilst being backed up ably by the rookie Kendall Hunter who looks value at 16/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The passing game revolves around Smith finding Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree & they both have 48 receptions a piece, he should find them often enough along with the running game continuing to be productive to win here against the Cardinals & the  best value looks to be backing the 49ers to be winning at half time & full time at Evens. The total points line also looks to have been set a bit too high at 38.5, for Arizona 4 of their last 5 have been under 39 points & 5 out of 6 for the 49ers including last week when they shut out the Rams, the Cardinals will also struggle to put points on the board here, Chris Wells running game has been key to their recent improvement but he won't have any joy & under 38.5 points should be backed with confidence.

(Blocking passes, rushing the passer, hitting the passer, scaring the passer - ladies & gentleman we present to you, all the way from Texas - Mr J.J. Watts)

Another game we like the look of under points in is the Houston Texans trip to Cincinnati to face the Bengals even though the line is again at 38.5 & the Bengals have only been involved in one game with under 40 points! We like the unders bet here due to the Texans outstanding defense that rank 2nd in yards given up & points allowed, they have 3rd choice quarterback T.J. Yates starting & will again look to their excellent running game with the brilliant Arian Foster leading the charge & Ben Tate getting plenty of carries too. Because Houston will employ the rush so often they'll run the clock down & that means less time to score points. The Bengals will be looking to bounce back from a humiliating 35-7 loss to the Steelers where they were really put in their place, it won't be straight forward for their outstanding rookie quarterback-receiver partnership of Andy Dalton & A.J. Green to bounce right back from that especially as Houston will hound Dalton play after play after play. The Texans rank 2nd in number of sacks gained & although the Bengals O-Line is good at protection ranking 4th in the league in sacks allowed (behind Houston who lie 3rd in that category), we still think they'll get to Dalton, Reed & barwin have the most sacks on the team but we've been hugely impressed with rookie defensive end J.J. Watt in recent weeks & he can impose himself again. We think the Texans might sneak a win again but we're happier to tip up the under 38.5 points at 10/11 here.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to be winning at half time & full time v Arizona Cardinals at Evens (general)
Under 38.5 points in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game at 10/11 (general)
Kendall Hunter to score 1st Touchdown at 16/1 (Boylesports & Skybet) in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game
Under 38.5 points in Houston Texans v Cincinnati Bengals game at 10/11 (general)

Take the double on under points in both games above to pay odds just over 5/2