NFL Divisional Round - Broncos to serve Ravens up a dish of Deja Vu

We're onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs & the two Saturday games are previewed here as Denver & San Francisco look to home field advantage & a rested squad whilst Baltimore & Green Bay look to carry the momentum of their wins last week. In last week's matches we were just middling, getting the Bengals @ Texans unders & Baltimore to win HT/FT fairly easily but having quarterback injury let us down in the other games (Christian Ponder & RGIII), hopefully injuries won't be as key in this week's games.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

These two sides meet again after facing off in week 15, in that game Denver basically humiliated Baltimore in their own stadium going up 34-3 in the 4th quarter before the Ravens responded with 10 consolation points late on - this will be even tougher as the Ravens try to overcome the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

(Broncos heart throb Eric Decker looks overpriced to haul in the first touchdown)

The Broncos now have outright favouritism for the Super Bowl with most firms & it's easy to see why as they've had a tremendous run winning their final 11 games, often impressively, after losing 3 of their first 5, admittedly to some very smart opponents. Peyton Manning has conclusively proved any doubters wrong, showing that he is fully recovered from the major surgery undertaken last year, now including the arm strength that understandably took a couple of games to get back. This is a side that got to the playoffs in 2011 (& won a game!) with Tim Tebow under centre - to have one of the very best quarterbacks of all time instead it now seems blindingly obvious that we should all have been backing Denver at the start of the season! The Broncos match up their outstanding quarterback play with some explosive defense that ranks 2nd overall in yards conceded per game & is outstanding against both the run & pass (ranking 3rd against each). They have great players through the defense with Champ Bailey one of the all time great cornerbacks, Von Miller is arguably the best defender in the league & Elvis Dumervil is a great defensive end, they look sure to be able to deal with anything the Ravens throw at them.

We were keen on the Ravens to beat Indianapolis last week but that was because the Colts were some way short of being as good as their win record suggested, this is a different proposition & it seems difficult to see how they'll keep pace with a team they were so outplayed by just a month ago. It looks like they will be prepared to throw some bombs downfield though if last week's game is anything to go by where Anquan Boldin gained 145 receiving yards, all coming in the 2nd half of the game, those deep passes are what Joe Flacco does best as he undeniably has a strong arm although he could look instead to the younger Torrey Smith this time. The Ravens' vaunted defense hasn't been as strong this year, with injuries & the ravages of age taking their toll, this looks likely to be legendary linebacker Ray Lewis's final game, he did well on comeback last week but may feel the effects of being out from week 6 onwards in this game. Ray Rice & young backup running back Bernard Pierce may be in the game plan to begin with but if the Ravens fall behind they'll be forced to pass & we can see Flacco getting sacked & throwing multiple interceptions as the Broncos force home a crushing win. Take Denver with -9 points to win this game, they beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore & can at least match that here. Looking at the touchdown scorers it looks like Broncos receiver Eric Decker is overpriced at 8/1 to get the first TD, he's their leading touchdown scorer with 13 & bagged himself 5 in the last 3 games so is red hot at the moment.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

This game is a rematch of these two teams first game of the season but takes place at the 49ers' Candlestick Park rather than Green Bay's famous Lambeau Field, these are arguably the NFC's top two teams so promises to be a great contest.

(Colin Kaepernick could be on the run for the 49ers)

The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game last time round only to end up just pipped to getting to the Super Bowl by the New York Giants, they'll be hoping for better this time around & need to start off by beating the Packers but they have somewhat controversially ditched quarterback Alex Smith for the still relatively untested Colin Kaepernick who now faces his biggest challenge by some margin. Kaepernick came into the side in week 10 after Smith was concussed & that means he's played just 7 full games yet faces off today against the Packers' turnover creating defense & has to keep pace with one of the league's best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. In the medium to long term we think bringing Kaepernick in is a good decision for the 49ers as he definitely has more scope than Alex Smith & has an added dimension of being a great athlete able to take off at any time with the ball, however in the short term it could prove costly here as this is a team that were championship contenders with Smith & his experience & decision making could have been crucial especially as they remain foremost a hard running, hard defense team.

Frank Gore is the 49ers star attacker & he put up his 6th 1,000+ rushing yards season this time around, the fact that 4 of his 5 lowest rushing games of the season coincided with the 4 losses San Francisco sustained shows just how important he is to the team. The Packers are only average at stopping the run & it's surely the 49ers best chance of success as even if Kaepernick is on his game he doesn't really have a lot of targets to pass to & seems to have somewhat zoned in exclusively on Michael Crabtree in recent weeks, top tight end Vernon Davis has gained just 6 receptions in their last 6 games. Of course the 49ers' greatest strength is on defense where they are a tour de force against the pass & run, ranking 2nd in points conceded per game (just 17.1), the leader is 2nd season linebacker Aldon Smith who came up with 19.5 sacks but the whole front 7 are outstanding & almost certainly the best in football at the moment.

The Packers' offensive line has been a weakness for some time & that 49er pressure is going to mean Rodgers will get repeatedly hit in the game, yet he's been used to that all season & yet still manages to post outstanding numbers, rarely panicking & throwing poor passes whilst under intense pressure by defenders. Rodgers seems to know when to take a sack too which remains a skill many quarterbacks still haven't acquired (Tony cough Romo cough!), he's got a great set of receivers to pass to & if he can escape the pressure he'll make some big plays in this one with so many 49ers on pass rush. Randall Cobb has really established himself in his 2nd season & got 80 receptions on the year, staying as Rodgers' most dependable receiver all season, Jordy Nelson is back & fit after missing a couple of games & James Jones will be looking to add to his huge haul of 14 TD receptions - they can definitely hurt San Fran.

(Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson can swing this in Green Bay's favour)

The Packers' key players in this one may however be on defense where they need to force Colin Kaepernick into making the mistakes that will finish the 49ers. A.J. Hawk & Clay Matthews will put him under pressure & they now have their outstanding veteran cornerback Charles Woodson back to make the plays in the backfield, he made a real difference against the Vikings last week & may prove crucial here. The 49ers were our pre-season pick to make the Super Bowl for the NFC but we're abandoning them here as we see Rodgers v Kaepernick as pivotal & we have to side with the proven quantity, take Green Bay to win as 13/10 outsiders.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat Baltimore Ravens with -9 points handicap at 10/11 (Coral, William Hill & SkyBet)
Eric Decker to score first touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
Green Bay Packers to beat San Francisco 49ers at 13/10 (Boylesports, William Hill & Pinnacle)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Saturday - Vikings to keep pace with Packers

After 17 weeks of pounding regular season action the NFL playoffs are about to get underway, whilst New England, Denver, San Francisco & Atlanta manged to secure the top seeds & they avoid this wildcard weekend where the other 8 teams battle it out for the right to face those top seeds next week. It's a pretty good weekend of action with no 'dead certs' in the 4 games but we're looking at each of them starting with Saturday's two games here as we look to find the betting value.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

The first game we take a look at is between the slumping Houston Texans & the Cincinnati Bengals who've made the playoffs after winning 7 of their last 8 games to end with a 10&6 record.

(Matt Schaub will be looking for the win in his first ever post-season game)

Houston were our outright picks for Super Bowl glory at the start of the year & that was looking a pretty good bet as they assembled an 11&1 winning record by week 13 & looked set to claim top seed in the AFC & home advantage in their playoff games but they took a beating in Foxboro at the hands o the Patriots & seemed to suffer ending up losing twice more but this game may give them a real chance of rallying & getting a rematch with the Patriots. Although the Bengals look to be the team on the up when you take a look at the teams they've beaten it becomes a little less impressive with the three teams they've beaten with winning records all somewhat out of form at the time & the Bengals have been beating teams they should beat but losing to the teams they shouldn't for the past couple of seasons, they rarely seem to be able to spring a surprise against the stronger teams.

Houston have a side with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with J.J. Watt their defensive star & a strong candidate for the defensive player of the year award - Watt along with Antonio Smith get a lot of sacks & the Bengals' offensive line isn't great at protecting passer Andy Dalton, they've given up 46 sacks & rank 26th (of 32) in the category. On offense Houston have a good passer in Matt Schaub, he's not spectacular but has good fundamentals in all aspects of the game & is a good decision maker, he also has one of the league's best receivers in Andre Johnson to throw to & Johnson has at times looked close to his best this season, getting the AFC's offensive player of the month for November, it's a pity they don't really have depth at the position as they can become a little predictable. The rushing attack is where the Texans excel & Arian Foster is an exceptional running back who can get success against any side.

(Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have really stepped up to the mark for Cincinnati this season)

The Bengals have an exceptional talent in receiver A.J. Green & he'll be looking to take advantage of the Texans' secondary that is definitely the weak point of their defense & has even looked a little confused at times in recent weeks with blown coverages - they can't afford to do that as A.J. will be sure to take it to the house & add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Bengals are also pretty sharp on defense, ranking 6th in yards & 8th in points given up with a big improvement from week 10 onwards where they restricted opponents to 20 points or less in all of their last 8 games (although it has to be noted they didn't face any offensive powerhouses apart from maybe the Giants who were in & out all season). Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have been coming up with the sacks for the Bengals & although they allow too many themselves they rank 3rd in sacks gained on defense & will be targeting the Texans' rookie guard Ben Jones who could be a weak link. The Bengals don't really have anything to worry Houston on he ground, we're unconcerned with BenJarvus Gren-Ellis's running threat & Houston will be too & that'll mean their pass rush will be turned up to 11 & could prove the difference. We like he Texans to win but the point spread looks about right so we'll target the points total instead, Ladbrokes put it at 43.5 & 7 of Cinci's last 8 games have been 44 points or under & half of Houston's games haven't hit that either so the value has to be backing under 43.5 points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

We've an NFC North divisional match up in the late night game on Saturday as the Vikings travel to take on the Green Bay Packers - they only played this last week (in Minnesota) & the Vikings were victorious yet the Packers are this weekend's shortest priced team to win.

(Adrian Peterson's wonderful season could be drawing to a close but he'll give Green Bay plenty of trouble)

Home field advantage is clearly a big factor here & Green Bay prevailed 23-14 in the game here in week 13 & their only loss at Lambeau all year came in their first game of the season against the hard running 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is an awesome talent at quarterback & his refusal to focus too much on any one receiver means that opposing defenses struggle to lock down targets & add to that his ability to extend plays he comes out right near the top of the tree when assessing all NFL passers. Green Bay do allow Rodgers to get sacked too often (51 times this year) & it could lead to him getting injured at one point but it doesn't appear to have hurt them so far & they are excellent in the red zone, ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency when getting within 20 yards of the end zone. The Packers running game is also slightly improved this year although no individual back has been putting up big numbers, they're most likely to try to pass the ball anyway as that's where their weapons lie & the Vikings rank 24th against the pass.

The Vikings don't have the versatility of some teams but they do have an incredible running back in Adrian Peterson who has come back from major knee surgery to put up the 2nd biggest rushing yards season in league history. AP has also had a lot of success against the Packers in both games this season, running up big numbers even though the defense know the ball is likely to be handed off, he's also taken the  ball into the end zone for touchdowns 12 times this yea as well as moving the ball up the field with regularity. In terms of passing the Vikings clearly aren't as much of a threat although Christian Ponder has improved in his 2nd season, he is a little predictable though with Percy Harvin his favourite target apart from when in scoring range when Kyle Rudolph's number invariably gets called. Rudolph is a huge tight end & at 6"6 it doesn't matter who he goes up against he'll have a favourable match-up so he's an obvious target when in short yardage situations. Bad news for the Vikings this week is that Ponder's throwing arm is reportedly sore & that may mean they run even more often, that may not be a bad thing as Green Bay's defense is heavily reliant on causing turnovers through interceptions & running the ball eliminates that threat. Green Bay should score enough to win this game but they lost to Minnesota last week & only won by 9 in the previous game so take the Vikings with +9.5 points to win on the handicap/points spread.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)
Minnesota Vikings to beat Green Bay Packers with +9.5 point handicap (Paddy Power & 32Red)

NFL Week 12 - Buffalo out of Luck at Colts

We've already had 3 games this week as Thursday saw the traditional Thanksgiving games & the Texans continued to win & now stand at 10&1 for the season & the Patriots won convincingly too to keep up the chase in the AFC. We're looking at a couple of games that could prove crucial in the chase for the playoffs & there are some nice bets to be had as we try to keep the winners coming!

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

This game looks like a potential cracker with 5 of the Bills games totaling over 50 points this season & here they come up against the number one overall draft pick in the Colts' outstanding young quarterback Andrew Luck.

(Vick Ballard (taking the hand-off) could have a huge game running the ball)

The Bills have been embarrassingly bad on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 ranking 26th in total defense & have given up the 3rd most points per game (29.9 - only the Raiders & Titans are worse) & they've been particularly awful against stopping the run. What makes Buffalo's defensive malaise worse is that they invested heavily during the off season bringing in Mario Williams as their marquee signing from the Texans yet the Bills have got worse & Houston seem just as good without Williams. Buffalo's weakness against the run could bite them here even though you'd think of the Colts as a passing team, Andrew Luck is happy to take off & has already run in 5 TDs himself plus we reckon Vick Ballard could rack up the rushing yards in this one too.

Buffalo would maybe be more competitive if their offense was a little more explosive but it's been merely average this season even with some excellent running performances from the emerging C.J. Spiller - both Spiller & fellow running back Fred Jackson have slightly injury concerns here (Knee & concussion respectively). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is only ordinary & his stats this season look slightly skewed thanks to facing some pretty average teams at times, their 4 wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona & Miami...

The Colts have also beaten some poor sides but have added the notable scalps of the Minnesota Vikings & Green Bay Packers too & have only lost at home once from 5 games so far, there is a real sense of optimisim in Indianapolis & they'll feel they can bounce back after being slapped down by the Patriots last week. The Colts rank an impressive 5th in offensive yards gained per game & Luck has passed for 300+ yards in 5 out of 10 games which are excellent numbers for a rookie. Luck has developed a great relationship with key receiver Reggie Wayne & the spectacular catch maker already has 1,003 receiving yards - he'll be a favourite target here.With home field advantage (& the fact we haven't read too much into the blowout loss against New England) we're confident that the Colts can easily cover the -3 point handicap against a brittle Buffalo side.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

This game between two of the big name sides in the NFL is one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams needing to win this one to keep up the pace in their tight divisions, the Giants have stumbled in their last couple & are looking to bounce back after their bye week whilst the Packers look to keep rolling after 5 straight wins.

(Touchdown! Jordy Nelson! At least we hope that's the commentary)

There are similarities in both teams as they are largely reliant on the performances of their quarterbacks & their defenses creating turnovers & it has proven a successful strategy as they have taken the last two Super Bowls. Of course relying so heavily on your passer means that if he has a bad game then you invariably lose & that has been the Giants' problem with Eli Manning's form dipping markedly in their last 4 games after a great start to the season & they lost to the Steelers & Bengals after receiving scares from the Redskins & Cowboys. Manning is a top quarterback & a real big game player (as two Super Bowls prove) but we'd always take Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers if we had to pick between the two, he's outstanding  leads the league with a passer rating of 107.3 whilst Manning is down at a mediocre 81.8.

Green Bay are the only team to have beaten the Houston Texans this year & also prevailed against Chicago (only other loss was to Houston) which shows they are right up there in terms of the best teams this season & they've come back well after shock, close losses to Seattle & Indianapolis. The Packers could certainly do wit improving their offensive line which has given up 32 sacks & is a big reason their running game is relatively ineffective, they're fortunate that Rodgers doesn't panic under pressure & their defensive pass rush is a weaon on the other side with 33 sacks of their own. Green Bay's defense will be missing star linebacker Clay Matthews but they'll still fancy they can get pressure on Eli Manning & if they do his slump could continue. Key for the Packers is that they limit star receiver Victor Cruz as much as possible, he's Manning's favourite target by far whereas Rodgers has a wide range of targets to pick from though Jordy Nelson may be the man to concentrate on now he's fit again, he's a big price at 8/1 to bag the first touchdown.

New York do have the home advantage but they will need to have worked on Eli Manning's game plenty in their bye week because he's looking unfocused at times & we would much rather be with the Packers in this one with a handy 3 point handicap lead.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Buffalo Bills with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Green Bay Packers to beat New York Giants with +3 points on the handicap at 5/6 (General)
Jordy Nelson to score first touchdown in Packers @ Giants game at 8/1 (Various)

Monday Night Football - Blackpool attack can light up Huddersfield defence

A lovely two out of two football bets for us at the weekend hopefully makes up somewhat for a horrible Thursday night, we're taking a look at the Monday Night Football games from the Championship as Blackpool take on Huddersfield & the NFL as Green Bay travel to the hostile environment of Seattle. If you aren't doing so already you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page - we're blogging & tweeting right through the football seasons.

Blackpool vs Huddersfield Town

The live English Championship match comes from Bloomfield Road as Blackpool entertain newly promoted Huddersfield Town. The Tangerines have made an impressive start to the season & another victory over Huddersfield will see them return to the top of the table.

 (Tom Ince has made an outstanding start to the season for Blackpool)

Blackpool's home form has been impeccable with three wins & they have dished out hammerings to Ipswich Town (6-0) & most recently Middlesbrough (4-1). That Middlesbrough win looks particularly good after Boro went & took maximum points off of  table toppers Blackburn in their next game. Youngster Tom Ince has bags of potential & it seems a number of Premiership clubs are keeping a close eye on him & who can blame them when already this season he has registered six goals & five assists. The Blackpool squad has plenty of experience & the loan signings of Nouha Dicko & Nathan Delfouneso have slotted straight in with a couple of goals each, with goals throughout the team & an attacking philosophy they are ultra dangerous.

Huddersfield will be pleased with their start & are unbeaten in their last five league games with three wins & two draws after an opening night defeat against Cardiff City. After losing striker Jordan Rhodes, for a handsome fee, they have responded well however all but one of their points have come against sides 16th or lower in the league & this is a much sterner test. The Terriers only gained a 2-2 draw when away to Ipswich & we think that is pretty average form against a side in disarray, Blackpool will play at a high tempo & youngster Nouha Dicko could give left back Paul Dixon a really hard night.

This will be a step up in class for Huddersfield against a side full of confidence & in front of a buoyant crowd & Blackpool should get the points at the best priced of 8/11, however you can also take advantage of Paddy Power's wincast market where you can get 11/4 on Blackpool & in form Tom Ince as an anytime scorer. England manager Roy Hodgson recently said he may have to look at the Championship as well as the Premier League & Tom Ince may well get into a squad soon, we'd take him over Theo Walcott right now without a moment's hesitation.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

We've an intriguing game for Monday night's NFL as the high powered but rather misfiring Green Bay Packer offense go on the road to take on the Seattle Seahawks at their excellent CenturyLink Field stadium.

(Kicking could be prevalent in the Packers' game at Seattle)

We don't mention the Seahawk's home venue without reason - CenturyLink Field is one of the noisiest venues in the NFL along with the Detroit Lions' Ford Field & it can make it difficult for opposing offenses to communicate effectively. One of the Packers' strengths comes from Aaron Rodgers' on-field play calling when he spots mismatches but if his offense are unable to hear those calls it will make things tough especially when trying to convert on 3rd down situations. The Seahawks are pretty strong defensively & at this early stage of the season rank 2nd against the rush & a respectable 13th against the pass, Green Bay have problems at running back & will be unlikely to get anything going here. With the Packers maybe a little one dimensional the Seahawks will fancy themselves to keep this one tight.

(We're hopefully going to see some 'Beast Mode' from Seattle's Marshawn Lynch)

Green Bay are also giving up over 5 yards a carry & Marshawn Lynch will be licking his lips at facing them, he's Seattle's star offensive player & should see plenty of action as they look to keep young quarterback Russell Wilson out of the firing line. Lynch's total rushing yards have been marked up at 92.5 & in week one he only just failed to get that with 85 & last week racked up 122 yards & we think he's a solid bet to get at least that as he looks for another 100+ yard game. The Seahawks will however struggle to pass effectively as rookie quarterback Russell Wilson is one of the weakest in the league & Green Bay love to rush the passer with Clayton Matthews in scorching form & 6 sacks from his first two games. Basically both sides could find it tough to move the ball with fluency & that could mean that field goals end up coming into play, between them the two sides have scored 8 (attempted  9) in their opening two games & having a flutter on over 3.5 field goals here could be prudent. The Seahawks could cause an upset but the odds aren't quite good enough & they're only getting a 3 point lead on the spreads, we've looked at the situation & the Marshawn Lynch & field goals bets look the best on offer.

Selections:
Blackpool to beat Huddersfield Town at 8/11 (General)
Blackpool to win & Tom Ince to score on the 'wincast' market at 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Marshawn Lynch total rushing yards over 92.5 (BlueSquare, Paddy Power & 888Sport)
Over 3.5 field goals in Green Bay Packer at Seattle Seahawks at 10/11 (Bet365)

We need to talk about the Bears & the Bees

We've got Thursday night action before we get to the weekend as we see a classic NFL rivalry renewed in Green Bay & a League One football game with Leyton Orient trying to follow up their win against Swindon when they host Brentford. We'll be back with picks for the weekend's football from both sides of the Atlantic as the winter sports season nstarts to motor, get notified of updates to the blog by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

(Packers linebacker Clay Matthews is looking to get back to his 2010 form)

The Green Bay Packers get another chance at home after losing to our picks for the NFC the 49ers when they host the Chicago Bears on Thursday night in a standout matchup from the first couple of weeks' action. The layers are expecting a shootout & they've set the total points line at 50.5 but the score going over that is entirely plausible as both teams' opening games surpassed it (52 for Green Bay & 62 for the Chicago). 12 of the Packers' 17 games last year went 51+ points as Aaron Rodger went pass mad & although the Bears' defense is very good it won't be as tough as the brilliant 49ers & that means we should be looking at Green Bay scoring close to or north of 30 points alone. With the Packers' rushing attack looking weak that should mean they pass even more often  that means that time won't run off the clock so quickly & higher scores become more likely.

(Brandon Marshall has settled in very nicely already with the Bears)

For their part the Bears look to have made one hell of an astute signing with Michael Bush as a complementary running back to Matt Forte, we pointed it out before their opener & he went & proved it by pushing home two TDs when down at the goal line - it means they've improved their likelihood of getting touchdowns when in the red zone rather than field goals & again means higher scoring games. The Packers remain weak in coverage & will struggle with Brandon Marshall who has instantly linked up with Jay Cutler after previously being together at Denver & he should get a stack of receiving yardage again.

The Bears' offensive line still doesn't inspire huge confidence when protecting the passer & Green Bay's defense will be on high alert, especially Clay Matthews who had 2.5 sacks v the Colts after a bit of a down year in 2011 following being named defensive MVP in 2010. If the Packers can't get to Jay Cutler he'll hit Marshall & it will set up Forte to break some big runs & the value might lie here with the visitors at 12/5 with Coral. We certainly like the over 50.5 points bet as this game looks like being a cracker with the Packers difficult to stop & the Bears looking effective in the passing & ground games.

Leyton Orient vs Brentford

Leyton Orient host Brentford at Griffin Park in a League One game as Orient try to catch up with the schedule after having a game with Hartlepool postponed. Brentford are sat in 7th spot on eight points whilst Leyton Orient have played a game less & have three points on the board. Orient's points came as they beat Swindon last weekend to arrest a terrible start to the league season with three defeats from three games against Tranmere Rovers, Stevenage & Crawley Town. An away win at Swindon is impressive on paper but there seems to be a bit of unrest in the Robins dressing room & the result probably said more about Swindon than the O's.

(Clayton Donaldson is in great shape & it's paying off with goals)

Brentford have won two of their last three games against Crewe (5-1) & Colchester (1-0) & have drawn both matches on the road. In their five matches there have been seven goals scored in the 80th minute or later so this game could be in the balance right to the end. We don't think that it will be that close though as Brentford's attacking threat is potent with Clayton Donaldson thriving now he seems to have established himself as the main man up front & the summer signing of the Moroccan Farid El Alagui has added some class whilst striking up a solid partnership with Donaldson.

Leyton Orient have just two goals in the League this year & their best chance of success is surely to try to defend & catch Brentford on the break, we don't feel they have the quality to compete though (finished 20th v Brentford's 9th last year) & Brentford are a fair price at 7/5.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to beat Green Bay Packers at 12/5 (Coral)
Over 50.5 points total in Bears v Packers game at 10/11 (General)
Brentford to beat Leyton Orient at 7/5 (Paddy Power & Coral)

Ravens to suffer clipped wings at hands of Texans

Last night's NFL playoff games saw some good tipping for us with 4 out of 5 bets up including Wes Welker scoring the first touchdown in the Broncos v Patriots game at a big price of 15/2, we're trying to follow up in tonight's games that include reigning champions the Green Bay Packers taking on the New York Giants.

(The defenses will be key & the Ravens' D is as strong as it gets)

In Sunday's first game the Houston Texans travel to face off against the Baltimore Ravens in a game where both sides have very similar strengths as they are both best in the running game & their excellent defenses. The Texans defense improved from being statistically th 2nd worst in the league last year to 2nd best this year & their signed this season defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips deserves enormous credit as well as the new talent they brought in, we mentioned J.J. Watts last week as a favourite of ours & the rookie defensive end came up with a great performance as they beat Cincinnati in a hugely professional display. Watts will look to get after Ravens passer Joe Flacco at every opportunity & rightly so, as far as we're concerned the Ravens succeed in spite of the man under centre rather than because of him. Flacco is distinctly average & it's hard to see Baltimore wining Super Bowls with him, it's a pity as they have a top running back in Ray Rice & legendary defenders in Ray Lewis, Ed Reed & Terrell Suggs. Flacco isn't helped by the lack of depth they have in receivers as they look primarily to Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith, that will help the Texans as they'll go to man coverage to crowd those two out of the game. The key to the Ravens offense will as usual be their 5"8 rusher Ray Rice, he's quick & extremely elusive, getting big plays to the outside & right through the middle, Rice is great but maybe not quite so great as the Texans' main man.

(Power, pace & plenty of moves - Arian Foster is the complete back)

The Texans' running back Arian Foster seems to get better & better, he had a few injury problems at the start of the season but once he got into his stride was unstoppable, ending up with 10 TDs on the ground & 2 receiving scores. Foster's a lot bigger than Rice at 6"1 but he's still elusive as he has some great moves & excellent vision, he is thriving as he knows their success rests largely on his shoulders now they havea 3rd choice quarterback thanks to unfortunate luck with injuries. It is almost inevitable that Foster will score at  some point & Ladbrokes offer of 4/6 is generous - take it. Having T.J. Yates at centre isn't ideal but he coped very well last week & their playbook tends not to rely on him pasing to much anyway, they ran the ball more than anyone apart from the Broncos in the regular season. Not passing means that th Ravens will struggle to creae the turnovers that they are so good at usually & when the Texans do go to th air they have one of the premier receivers around in Andre Johnson, if he has the ball he won't be coughing it up with fumbles. An extra bonus for Houston has been the emergence of secondary running back Ben Tate & his good performances ensure that Foster doesn't get worn out from aways running the ball, he's better than the Ravens backup Ricky Williams & could be a factor. The Ravens cearly hold an advantage, they are at home & rested last week & the colder conditions should suit them slightly better but these are closely matched teams. Although Baltimore won 29-14 in their regular season meeting that game was very close until the 4th quarter & Arian Foster's season hdn't quite got going at that point, the ods available mean that we're happy to take the Ravens on & instead back Houston for the upset at odds of 3/1.

(Eli Manning is still in the hunt for his 2nd Super Bowl)

The New York Giants hae to go to Lambeau Field & face the formidable Green Bay Packers after their demolition of the Atlanta Falcons last week, this won't be so easy & we can't imagine the Packers scoring will be limited to just a safety. If the Giants could continue to run the ball like last week it would bode well but that was an anomaly as they ranked dead last in the rushing game in the regular season, they'll continue to go to Eli Manning who has been deadly down the back stretch with powerful & accurate throws to his receivers. Manning will need to be accurate as this Green Bay defense is built for interceptions & takeaways, they ranked last in passing yards conceded but had 8 more interceptions than anyone else, averaging near enough two picks a game. The stats ranking them last are slightly miseading as teams were having to go to the air as they were left trailing by the scary Packer offense, clearly the Packers secondary is not elite but it isn't dreadful either.

(We're hoping to see Jermichael Finley (no.88) making the Lambeau Leap)

When they met earlier in the year, at New York, there were only 3 points to separate them as Green Bay prevailed, that implies another close game but overall the Packers are more convincing having lost just once all year & quarterback Aaron Rodgers has now had 3 weeks rest after they played backup Matt Flynn in the last regular season game. Rodgers choice of receivers to pass to is amazing & he will almost certainly be able to burn the rubbish Giants secondary by going to any of Donald Driver, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson & the returning Greg Jennings. Finley looks likely to be able to exploit the Giants in the short to medium game & will look to create mismatches aginst linebackers, he's an awesome 6/5 to score at anytime with SkyBet, he can also be backed at 10/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The Giants do have weapons & receivers Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz can have good games, they'll need their defense to be firing on all cylinders to stand a chance & Jason Pierre-Paul will be doing his best, he's a star but it will likely be a long day for him & the rest of the defense unless the running game gets going for the Giants & they can manage the clock. At 30/100 the Packers are probably a little too short but backing them to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 is reasonable & looks the way to go.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Baltimore Ravens at 3/1 (Ladbrokes & Victor Chandler)
Arian Foster to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Green Bay Packers to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Jermichael Finley to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (SkyBet) & to score 1st TD at 10/1 (various)

Lions can celebrate Thanksgiving by feasting on Packers defense

It's Thanksgiving in the States & that means that we have three NFL games this Thursday to start week 12 that has every team in action now they've all had their bye weeks. The Thursday night games look pretty tasty with the league leading Green Bay Packers & San Francisco 49ers both in action hoping to keep up the pace in the NFC. We had 4 out of 5 winning bets on Sunday including Marion Barber to score the first touchdown in the Bears game at odds of 10/1, we're looking to keep pounding the bookmakers with our best bets here.

 (Awesome Aaron Rodgers may meet his match against the Detroit Lions pass rush)

There's no doubt about it, the Green Bay Packers are the most exciting team in football right now having gone unbeaten through the first 10 games & having posted 42 points more than any other team, they also rank 3rd worst in terms of yards given up on defense per game meaning there've been plenty of high scoring encounters, they now take on the 7&3 Detroit Lions who rank 3rd in total points (54 behind Green Bay) & that porous defense could lead to their first loss here. The Lions have been attempting over 40 passes a game & Matt Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns to 8 inreceptions, he has the league's best receiver to throw to in Calvin Johnson & he will want to take advantage of the Packers who've conceded 18 passing touchdowns, at 7/1 he looks a nice price to get the first touchdown. The Packers defense is certainly explosive as they lead the league with 19 interceptions but that is partly due to teams having to throw hopeful passes against them when trailing & they've let 46 passing plays of 20+ yards - it all points to a big day for Stafford & Johnson.

The Lions have been pretty solid defensively ranking 9th best in yards allowed plus have been able to make plenty of plays with 15 interceptions, 27 sacks & 9 forced fumbles (recovering 8 of those 9), they will need to be on top form against the Packers Aaron Rodgers because he's been exceptional all season with an insanely high passer rating of 130.7 (the NFL record season sits at 121.1). Fortunately their strength is against the pass, ranking 5th in yards allowed, they have the ability to get pressure on any quarterback which is key to having a chance at stopping Rodgers & Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch & Ndamukong Suh will all be hunting him down in this one. In the Lions secondary cornerback Chris Houston has stepped his game up with 4 picks this year & has returned two for touchdowns, Rodgers may have thrown just 3 interceptions in the 10 games so far but he'll be made to hurry more in this game & if he gets too ambitious the Lions will be waiting to pounce. It's fair that the Packers are favourites for this one but their odds seem a little skinny as they are away in one of the loudest venues in the league & that will make it dificult to execute plays & the Lions can get to the quarterback, Rodgers has been sacked 23 times already, at odds of 5/2 the Detroit Lions are the value pick to end the Packers unbeaten run.

(The San Francisco 49ers defense plus Frank Gore's running game can punish the Ravens)

The San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Baltimore Ravens who have won all of their home games so far but may not keep that going in this one against San Francisco who are 9&1 on the year. Other than having played the Steelers & Texans, Baltimore seem to have had one of the softest schedules available, ok they beat Pittsburgh twice which is very impressive but those big rivalry games can be more passion than great football & they've lost to very ordinary (at best) teams in Seattle, Tennessee & Jacksonville. We'vbe mentioned before that we're not Joe Flacco fans & that hasn't changed, he'll struggle against a top defense that only rank averagely in passing yards given up because teams abandon the run against them. That's a problem for the Ravens as when Flacco has one of his regular trash games they can normally go to the hugely reliable & basically excellent running back Ray Rice but here against the 49ers huge, dominant run defense that isn't desirable. On the 49ers offense quarterback Alex Smith has been a model of efficiency with 64% completion & just 3 interceptions, his favourite target Vernon Davis has 5 touchdowns already & Michael Crabtree has performed well too but their real strength is running the ball & Frank Gore can again prove difficult to stop, he's already had 870 rushing yards & is a real bull of a player. This is a game between two very good defenses & bearing that in mind it looks sensible to take the 49ers receiving +3.5 points on the handicap in a tight one where field goals could be important.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers at 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
Calvin Johnson to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 in Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers game (Boylesports & William Hill)
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with +3.5 points on the handicap at 5/6 (various)