NFL Wildcard Weekend Saturday - Vikings to keep pace with Packers

After 17 weeks of pounding regular season action the NFL playoffs are about to get underway, whilst New England, Denver, San Francisco & Atlanta manged to secure the top seeds & they avoid this wildcard weekend where the other 8 teams battle it out for the right to face those top seeds next week. It's a pretty good weekend of action with no 'dead certs' in the 4 games but we're looking at each of them starting with Saturday's two games here as we look to find the betting value.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

The first game we take a look at is between the slumping Houston Texans & the Cincinnati Bengals who've made the playoffs after winning 7 of their last 8 games to end with a 10&6 record.

(Matt Schaub will be looking for the win in his first ever post-season game)

Houston were our outright picks for Super Bowl glory at the start of the year & that was looking a pretty good bet as they assembled an 11&1 winning record by week 13 & looked set to claim top seed in the AFC & home advantage in their playoff games but they took a beating in Foxboro at the hands o the Patriots & seemed to suffer ending up losing twice more but this game may give them a real chance of rallying & getting a rematch with the Patriots. Although the Bengals look to be the team on the up when you take a look at the teams they've beaten it becomes a little less impressive with the three teams they've beaten with winning records all somewhat out of form at the time & the Bengals have been beating teams they should beat but losing to the teams they shouldn't for the past couple of seasons, they rarely seem to be able to spring a surprise against the stronger teams.

Houston have a side with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with J.J. Watt their defensive star & a strong candidate for the defensive player of the year award - Watt along with Antonio Smith get a lot of sacks & the Bengals' offensive line isn't great at protecting passer Andy Dalton, they've given up 46 sacks & rank 26th (of 32) in the category. On offense Houston have a good passer in Matt Schaub, he's not spectacular but has good fundamentals in all aspects of the game & is a good decision maker, he also has one of the league's best receivers in Andre Johnson to throw to & Johnson has at times looked close to his best this season, getting the AFC's offensive player of the month for November, it's a pity they don't really have depth at the position as they can become a little predictable. The rushing attack is where the Texans excel & Arian Foster is an exceptional running back who can get success against any side.

(Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have really stepped up to the mark for Cincinnati this season)

The Bengals have an exceptional talent in receiver A.J. Green & he'll be looking to take advantage of the Texans' secondary that is definitely the weak point of their defense & has even looked a little confused at times in recent weeks with blown coverages - they can't afford to do that as A.J. will be sure to take it to the house & add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Bengals are also pretty sharp on defense, ranking 6th in yards & 8th in points given up with a big improvement from week 10 onwards where they restricted opponents to 20 points or less in all of their last 8 games (although it has to be noted they didn't face any offensive powerhouses apart from maybe the Giants who were in & out all season). Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have been coming up with the sacks for the Bengals & although they allow too many themselves they rank 3rd in sacks gained on defense & will be targeting the Texans' rookie guard Ben Jones who could be a weak link. The Bengals don't really have anything to worry Houston on he ground, we're unconcerned with BenJarvus Gren-Ellis's running threat & Houston will be too & that'll mean their pass rush will be turned up to 11 & could prove the difference. We like he Texans to win but the point spread looks about right so we'll target the points total instead, Ladbrokes put it at 43.5 & 7 of Cinci's last 8 games have been 44 points or under & half of Houston's games haven't hit that either so the value has to be backing under 43.5 points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

We've an NFC North divisional match up in the late night game on Saturday as the Vikings travel to take on the Green Bay Packers - they only played this last week (in Minnesota) & the Vikings were victorious yet the Packers are this weekend's shortest priced team to win.

(Adrian Peterson's wonderful season could be drawing to a close but he'll give Green Bay plenty of trouble)

Home field advantage is clearly a big factor here & Green Bay prevailed 23-14 in the game here in week 13 & their only loss at Lambeau all year came in their first game of the season against the hard running 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is an awesome talent at quarterback & his refusal to focus too much on any one receiver means that opposing defenses struggle to lock down targets & add to that his ability to extend plays he comes out right near the top of the tree when assessing all NFL passers. Green Bay do allow Rodgers to get sacked too often (51 times this year) & it could lead to him getting injured at one point but it doesn't appear to have hurt them so far & they are excellent in the red zone, ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency when getting within 20 yards of the end zone. The Packers running game is also slightly improved this year although no individual back has been putting up big numbers, they're most likely to try to pass the ball anyway as that's where their weapons lie & the Vikings rank 24th against the pass.

The Vikings don't have the versatility of some teams but they do have an incredible running back in Adrian Peterson who has come back from major knee surgery to put up the 2nd biggest rushing yards season in league history. AP has also had a lot of success against the Packers in both games this season, running up big numbers even though the defense know the ball is likely to be handed off, he's also taken the  ball into the end zone for touchdowns 12 times this yea as well as moving the ball up the field with regularity. In terms of passing the Vikings clearly aren't as much of a threat although Christian Ponder has improved in his 2nd season, he is a little predictable though with Percy Harvin his favourite target apart from when in scoring range when Kyle Rudolph's number invariably gets called. Rudolph is a huge tight end & at 6"6 it doesn't matter who he goes up against he'll have a favourable match-up so he's an obvious target when in short yardage situations. Bad news for the Vikings this week is that Ponder's throwing arm is reportedly sore & that may mean they run even more often, that may not be a bad thing as Green Bay's defense is heavily reliant on causing turnovers through interceptions & running the ball eliminates that threat. Green Bay should score enough to win this game but they lost to Minnesota last week & only won by 9 in the previous game so take the Vikings with +9.5 points to win on the handicap/points spread.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)
Minnesota Vikings to beat Green Bay Packers with +9.5 point handicap (Paddy Power & 32Red)

NFL Week 10 - Terrific Texans can hunt down Brutal Bears

The NFL is back & we're getting to the final stretch where every game is crucial as teams look to get the records they'll need to make the playoffs & make a Super Bowl run, the bookies seem to think most divisions are already decided but there could be a few upsets along the way & it may even be that the Falcons unbeaten record is under serious threat tonight against New Orleans. We've previewed a couple of games as we look to turn another tidy profit after last Sunday's straightforward pair of selections.

St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

We start off with what may be an uninspiring contest to watch but a decent betting opportunity between two teams that have been struggling to put points on the board recently but are tough to beat on the other side of the ball. The 49ers scored just 40 points in their 3 games before the bye week & the Rams bagged just 41 points in their 3 games, including the 45-7 loss to the Patriots at Wembley.

(Daryl Richardson is becoming a big part of the Rams' offense)

The sides rank 24th (St Louis) & 28th (San Francisco) in passing yards & instead tend to rely on their running game (both rank in bottom 6 teams for passing attempts per game). That reliance on the run means that the clock keeps running more often (incomplete passes stop the clock) & that tends to lead to lower scoring games with less plays & that is reflected with 5 of the 49ers' games going under today's set points total & half of the Rams' games have gone under 39 points too. There's good reason to think it even more likely today as the 49ers have conceded the fewest points per game in the league with a dominant defense that harasses the quarterback & is rock solid against the running game, Aldon Smith is a particular star but the whole unit is outright scary.

The Rams' defensive record would look better if it wasn't for that blowout against the Patriots & the week before they ran into the high powered Green Bay offense & gave up 30 points there (not disrespectable against them), when they faced some of the lesser lights on offense they've limited those teams pretty well: Seahawks 13 points; Cardinals 3 points; Dolphins 17 points. On the offensive side of the ball the Rams have really missed Danny Amendola at receiver after his shoulder injury, he was really emerging as a big threat & there is a possibility he could return in this one but they are still a little light in passing weapons even with Chris Givens recently coming through as a legitimate deep threat with catches of 50+ yards in each of his last 3 games. Both teams will lean heavily on their tailbacks but whilst Frank Gore has been averaging 82 rushing yards a game the Rams' feature back Steven Jackson hasn't had one 80+ yard game this year & Daryl Richardson is now sharing many of the carries. We can't see anything other than a defensive battle here & San Francisco should win, the value lies however with the St Louis Rams with a big +12.5 point lead on the handicap because if it's low scoring the 49ers will struggle to pull away.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears

For our money this is the standout game of the week with two highly fancied teams for the Super Bowl from either conference taking each other on with identical 7&1 records having both only been beaten by the Packers this season - it's the Houston Texans travelling to the Chicago Bears for a rumble!

(Matt Schaub - well protected by his O-Line)

If there is a word of warning for backers of either of these teams it would be that they've both had fairly undemanding schedules for the most part & that when they did come up against the high powered offense of the Packers both sides failed, they did both bounce back creditably though & both have some scarily good defenses & excellent running backs. Both teams rank joint 3rd with sacks gained this season with 25 each & J.J. Watt continues to prove  unstoppable for the Texans whilst the Bears have 4 players with 4 or more sacks & Charles 'Peanut' Tillman has forced an incredible 7 fumbles on the year (as many as the Texans whole team).

Both sides are also great against the run with the Texans ranking 2nd in yards given up (& would be1st but no one bothers to run against Tampa Bay as their pass defense is so laughable!) & the Bears rank 6th, the big thing to note about the Texans is that along with New England they've allowed only one run of 20+ yards all year showing the high levels of concentration they possess. The Texans are 4th against the pass whilst the Bears only rank 16th, the big difference being that Chicago have come up with a huge 17 interceptions & are generally built for turnovers with Tim Jennings coming up with 6 of his 13 career interceptions this season. Houston's cornerbacks Kareem Jackson & Johnathan Joseph have come up with a few picks themselves but the Bears are almost unmatchable in terms of their picks.

(The Bears' Jay Cutler - not so well protected...)

So we've identified both teams are ace defensively but the big difference is in thee quarterback play & protection for these two sides. Whilst Matt Schaub has been sacked just 10 times all season & also thrown just 4 interceptions, Jay Cutler has been sacked 28 times (2nd highest in league) & thrown 8 picks. It's just going to be much easier to get to Cutler than it is to Schaub & the Bears gameplan of creating turnovers may not work in this one. The Bears also only have one wideout with over 200 receiving yards, Brandon Marshall, & although he's been excellent the Texans will be pleased to know they only have one receiving target to really worry about. The Texans have 4 receivers with 200+ yards including their fullback James Casey & tight end Owen Daniels as they use their play action passing game to full effect. We like Chicago running back Matt Forte but can't see him having much joy in this one as Houston have the speedy players too stop him being elusive & this could instead be the game where Arian Foster proves he is 'the' elite running back in the NFL. The Bears defense are great but the Texans are too efficient & the league's 2nd highest scorers can prevail in this one at odds of 11/10, also take Houston to win by 7-12 points at 6/1 with William Hill.

Selections:
St Louis Rams to beat San Francisco 49ers with +12.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Chicago Bears at 11/10 (Ladbrokes) & by 7-12 points at 6/1 (William Hill)

Monday Night Football - Texans to run all over Jets

With no English football on this Monday that means we can concentrate on the Houston Texans' game in New York against the hapless Jets, the Jets are struggling badly & things don't get too much tougher than running up against the Super Bowl favourites.

Houston Texans @ New York Jets

(Bad times for the Jets' Mark Sanchez who has the spectre of being replaced by Tim Tebow looming)

New York have their best defensive & offensive players out injured with dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis out meaning it's much easier to pass against them & their star receiver Santonio Holmes out meaning it becomes even harder than usual for them to pass themselves. We've always felt that Mark Sanchez is lucky to be a NFL starter & the Jets' quarterback is really struggling at the moment & coming up against the top ranked defense in yards & pointss given up isn't going to make things any easier & the inevitable calls for Tim Tebow to replace him continue to grow louder. Even their young up & coming receiver Stephen Hill is a doubt for this game & it's hard to see how they can hurt Houston.

The Jets' traditional strength over the last few years has been their defense but even that isn't doing the job this year & their big problem here is that they don't appear to be able to stop the run in particular ranking 31st in yards given up - that spells huge trouble against the Texans. Houston have maybe the most talented running back in the league in Arian Foster & he's backed up by Ben Tate who would be a feature running back for most other teams, the two of them should have a lot of fun in this one & could end up with multiple touchdowns between them. At quarterback for the Texans Matt Schaub has been efficiency personified with 7 touchdowns to just one interception & a highly respectable pass completion rate of 67%, with Schaub getting fitter & fitter with every game after a big injury they are potentially a scary offensive unit.

(Andre Johnson could be celebrating some big numbers at the end of this one)

The Jets got blown away by the visiting 49ers last week losing 34-0 & the Texans are better than San Francisco offensively so they should easily cover the -8 point handicap. We can see this being a big win for Houston & in addition to backing them to cover the 8 points we advise backing a Texans' winning margin of 19-24 points at 15/2 & 25-30 points at 12/1 at Betfred.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat New York Jets with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to win by 19-24 points at 15/2 & 25-30 points at 12/1 (Betfred)

Road to the Super Bowl 2012 - AFC Season Preview

After previewing the upcoming NFL season from the NFC perspective here we're now moving onto the AFC & the conference that contain our picks for the Super Bowl. We'll be blogging throughout the season with picks in individual games including the sometimes generous touchdown scorer markets where there can be big discrepancies in the prices different bookmakers offer. You can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button up above.

AFC West

We'll start out with last year's tightest division where the Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers & Oakland Raiders all ended with perfectly balanced 8&8 records & the Kansas City Chiefs only finished one off with a 7&9 win record.

(Eric Weddle will be reading quarterbacks' eyes as the Chargers look to master the AFC West)

It's a season of change for the Broncos with them shipping out Tim 'Jebus' Tebow to the New York Jets & bringing in quarterback legend Peyton Manning as they look to improve upon their performance last year when they surprisingly beat the Steelers in the wildcard round before losing heavily to the Patriots. Some commentators will argue there's not a lot of pressure on Manning, coming in after a full season out with injury, but this is a side that won a playoff game even though they had a passer who couldn't pass & they have surely brought Peyton in for a championship push. The Broncos have one of the most explosive defenses in the league with Elvis Dumervil & Von Miller (in his rookie year!) combining for 21 sacks between them (9.5 & 11.5 respectively) although they weren't so great in the secondary with only 9 interceptions. They've one of the all time greats at cornerback in Champ Bailey but when you look at his stats his production seems to have fallen markedly & we're not overly impressed by the signings of Tracy Porter (cornerback) & Mike Adams (safety). Peyton Manning needs to get in form pretty quickly & make some pretty ordinary receivers look better than they are, Eric Decker & Demaryius Thomas are joined by Andre Caldwell & veteran Brandon Stokley in an attempt to give Peyton something to aim for. The worry is that without Tebow at quarterback their running game could really suffer, he created a lot of uncertainty in defenses unused to seeing his style of play & that meant Willis McGahee also put up some big numbers at running back - he might struggle to replicate that this year.

The Oakland Raiders look to have too much trouble at quarterback to really capitalise on a decent defense & the excellent running game of  Darren McFadden. Carson Palmer hasn't looked great in preseason & his two main receivers Jacoby Ford & Denarius Moore are both coming off of injuries, the Raider offense could really struggle in the opening weeks of the season. The Raiders will continue to excel on special teams on both sides of the ball & look for kicker Sebastian Janikowski to continue to put the ball through the posts from several miles away. the Kansas City Chiefs are a side expected to improve by many but they only scored 20 or more points on 4 occasions last year & need to pick up significantly & it remains to be seen whether Matt Cassel will be the answer at quarterback, he's expected to be the starter after returning from surgery on his hand. Cassel does have a top target at receiver in Dwayne Bowe & with Tony Moeaki coming in at tight end after missing the whole of his first season he could make a significant difference. The Chiefs also have plenty of depth at running back & it will be interesting to see if Dexter McCluster can continue to gain success as a hybrid running back/wide receiver, they do have a very good defense & we like Brandon Flowers at cornerback but we can't see them getting in the end zone enough & we'll look elsewhere for the division winners.

The San Diego Chargers are a talented but frustrating outfit who have thrown away opportunities for the past couple of seasons but we can get them at 21/10 to win the NFC West & we'll take that risk. Quarterback Philip Rivers had a poor season by his standards last year but still had a respectable passer rating of 88.7 (he'd been over 100 in his previous 3 seasons) & he's still a top QB for us & has an outstanding tight end in Antonio Gates to aim for. The Chargers have said goodbye to Vincent Jackson, their leading receiver last year though & youngster Vincent Brown has broken his ankle & will miss half the year. Robert Meachem has come in from the Saints though & along with Eddie Royal will look to offer options fro Rivers to pass to. Running Back Ryan Mathews also has a safe pair of hands in the passing game & hauled in 50 receptions last year whilst gaining over 1,000 yards on the ground in 14 games, he's out for the first 2-3 games with a broken collarbone but could have a huge year when he returns, Jackie Battle & Ronnie Brown should cover ably in his absence. The Chargers' main draft picks were all at defensive positions & Melvin Ingram & Kendall Reyes have already looked good in preseason & could both be starters this year. Eric Weddle will be lurking in the backfield hoping for another big year after 7 interceptions last year & overall we just feel the Chargers are a little better than their rivals this year & can push for 10+ wins in the season.

AFC North

The AFC North is traditionally just about the toughest division in football with the smashmouth game played by the teams meaning it is intense & physically demanding for all involved, last year the division produced 3 playoff teams as the Pittsburgh Steelers & Cincinnati Bengals joined division winners the Baltimore Ravens in the post season as wildcard qualifiers. Along with those three teams we have the Cleveland Browns who finished 4&12 last year & look like having another season of struggle as they look to build for the longer term.

(Ray Rice will continue to be the Ravens' top offensive weapon)

The Browns really should finish bottom of the pile again, 2007 was their last winning year & they have trouble at the quarterback position as they move promising youngster Colt McCoy back & bring rookie Brandon Weeden in as starter. Weeden was a first round draft pick & must have impressed in training & preseason, McCoy was probably never going to be a star but we felt he had potential & find it surprising he's already been shunted. The Browns traded up in the draft to also get running back Trent Richardson with just the 3rd overall pick & he's certainly a huge prospect & could have a big rookie year as the Browns look likely to run the ball often. The Browns only averaged 13.7 points per game in 2011 & conceded the 3rd most rushing yards in the league, they won't turn those stats around quickly enough this year & will struggle again.

The Bengals had a winning 9&7 record last year but you go back & look at the teams they beat & they were basically rubbish sides & they face a tougher schedule this year, it looks doubtful they'll get as many wins on the board in 2012. Cinci's defense is relatively solid but it was probably a wise move to go for a cornerback in the first round of the draft & the speedy Dre Kirkpatrick could make up into a top football player. On offense they basically have one awesome weapon & that is in A.J. Green who is starting his 2nd year in the NFL after a brilliant rookie year where he gained over 1,000 receiving yards catching from another rookie in QB Andy Dalton, they'll look to link up regularly again this year. On the ground the Bengals could struggle as we don't feel new recruit from the Patriots BenJarvus Green-Ellis is near elite running back status & overall we can't go near Cinci for division winners.

That leaves us with Pittsburgh & Baltimore, the two teams with the most animosity between them in football, whose defenses ranked 1st & 3rd respectively in 2011. The two games between these sides could well determine the winners in the AFC North & we have to wait until week 11 for the first at Pittsburgh with the 2nd following just two weeks later in Baltimore. The Steelers are favourites for the division but we have to admit to just not feeling it for the Black & Yellow this year even though they've recognised their weakness in the offensive line (who regularly fail to give Big Ben the protection he needs) & selected a guard & tackle as their first two draft picks. The O-line still looked shaky in preseason & without running back Rashard Mendenhall until later in the season you'd think their running game will suffer. Star receiver speedball Mike Wallace only reported in with the team a week or so ago after holding out on his contract & may take a couple fo weeks to get going, fortunately Antonio Brown has emerged as a top receiver & Emmanuel Sanders & tight end Heath Miller are dependable options. The Steeler defense will be outstanding as usual with strength against the run & pass, Troy Polamalu (safety) & James Harrison (linebacker) are the leaders of a physical & mean outfit. We just feel that the Ravens have fewer questions to answer than the Steelers & can beat them to top spot even though we think quarterback Joe Flacco is basically pretty poor for such a good team to have. The Ravens defense is amazing every year & veterans Ray Lewis & Ed Reed will be supported by an impressive set of players, they will however miss the injured Terrell Suggs (14 sacks in 2011) for the first 6 weeks of the season. On offense Ray Rice is one of the league's best running backs & had over 2,000 combined rushing & receiving yards in 2011, they've also got awesome deep threat receiver Anquan Boldin & 2nd season rookie Torrey Smith should improve upon a solid debut season. At odds of 8/5 (Pinnacle Sports) to win the AFC North we're on the Baltimore Ravens.

AFC East

(The Bills' Steve Johnson can gain a lot of receiving yards in 2012)

The AFC East may be along with the NFC West just about the least competitive division in the NFL in 2012, the New England Patriots have won this in 8 of the last 9 years & will do so again this season. The other three teams are pretty much jokes with the New York Jets looking unlikely to get the ball into the end zone with any regularity, the Buffalo Bills haven't had a winning season since 2004 & lost 8 of their last 9 games in 2011 & the Miami Dolphins first round quarterback pick Ryan Tannehill is already looking a liekly flop. New England have one of the finest quarterbacks of all time in Mr Perfect Tom Brady & he'll link up with last year's top receiver Wes Welker & tight ends Aaron Hernandez & Rob Gronkowski on numerous occasions for giant numbers. Stevan Ridley should graduate to starting running back & will do alright in terms of yards per play just because opposition teams will be so focused on stopping the pass. The Patriots secondary really isn't too good & they'll concede plenty of yards through the air but they don't seem to worry as they find it easy to score themselves, we think they might struggle offensively on road trips to the Ravens & Jets, & at home to the Texans & 49ers this year but they look to have a pretty easy schedule other than that & will be pushing for 12+ wins again.

Ever since the great Dan Marino retired the Dolphins have struggled at the passer position & Tannehill will be their 17th starting QB since Marino retired in 1999 & he's looked pretty ordinary in preseason & doesn't have a great set of receivers to pass to. It remains to be seen whether Reggie Bush can have another 1,000+ yard season at running back like in 2011 after joining from New Orleans, we've doubts he's durable enough & without the running game taking pressure off Tannehill, he could struggle even more. The Dolphins' defense ranked 3rd best against the rush last year but were much poorer against the pass ranking 25th, although they did give up yards they actually did well at limiting teams to field goals & were 6th best in points conceded, they haven't improved the defense in the off-season though & that will be tough to replicate.

The New York Jets have a top defense with cornerback Darrelle Revis able to shut down pretty much any receiver & overall they ranked 5th best in yards conceded per play, they will have to be even better at defense this year as the offense looks a shambles. We've never liked Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's an outright choker in our opinion & it remains to be seen how he'll cope now that the Tim tebow circus has come to town after signing from Denver. Tebow is the backup to Sanchez for now but could see plenty of play in wildcat formations where he will have the option to pass or run, if Sanchez performs badly (which is likely) Tebow will push for that starting spot. Jeremy Kerley & Santonio Holmes will be joined at receiver by rookie Stephen Hill but they aren't a particularly good set of receivers even if Holmes is one of the most talented in the league he hasn't put it all in for the Jets & mightn't be a good fit. Shonn Greene is by himself at running back now that LaDanian Tomlinson has retired but he's another pretty ordinary player & could get tired out fairly early in the season as they'll look to him when they inevitably can't pass the ball.

The Bills are a side due to improve & the signing of star defensive end Mario Williams from the Texans could really be a shrewd move if he can stay fit, he's joined as well by Mark Anderson who gained 10 sacks for the Patriots last year. The Bills were OK offensively last year (13th rushing & 15th passing) but ranked only 26th on defense so an upgrade there was essential, they've made it & it should make a difference as Williams & Anderson alone will make running more difficult & also get to the quarterback with regularity. Fred Jackson will be back at running back after a fractured leg & he'll be key, he was having a great season up until his injury & after it the Bills only won one more game in 2011. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to step up this season at quarterback if the Bills aren't to start thinking about replacing him but it's possible for him to improve & he has a bona fide top receiver in Steve Johnson to throw to, he should end up with another 1,000+ receiving yards this time around. All in all we like Sportingbet's offer of 2/1 for the Bills to secure 2nd spot in the NFC East, 1st is out of reach but the Jets look in trouble & the Dolphins basically poor.

AFC South

(J.J. Watt is one of the best young defenders around & will be adding to the Texans' sack total)

Finally we come to the AFC South & our fancies for outright Super Bowl glory in the Houston Texans, we liked the Texans' chances last year but they were derailed by some hugely unfortunate injuries to key players & they can be luckier in 2012. The other sides in the division look like fighting it out for 2nd & they aren't the most inspiring bunch, the Indianapolis Colts were unbelievably poor without Peyton Manning (injured) last year & finished with a league worst two wins. The Jacksonville Jaguars can't really pass the ball & have had problems with their star player Maurice Jones-Drew & the Tennessee Titans have a pretty svere schedule & an uncertain quarterback position.

The Colts dreadful season in 2011 has meant they were able to draft the best quarterback prospect in many years in Andrew Luck & he has shown no signs of letting down those who've predicted him to become an NFL great. Luck looks a fully formed NFL quarterback but the Colts have a lot of work to do in other positions before they can start thinking about winning seasons & playoff charges. Reggie Wayne is still the Colt's biggest weapon at receiver but he'll be 34 in November & whether he has another top season in him is in the balance. The Colts are ordinary at best at running back & that means Luck won't get much respite with an awful lot falling on his shoulders whilst the defense only ranked 25th last season in yards given up. Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis should still get plenty of sacks for the Colts this year but overall they're in a period of rebuilding & should just be aiming to get a few more wins on the board in 2012.

We haven't a lot of love for the Tennessee Titans this year especially as we're unconvinced running back Chris Johnson can get back to his incredible form from 2009, he's by far & away their best offensive weapon if at his best but his form has been sporadic in the last two seasons. The Titans have announced they're going for Jake Locker as starting quarterback but he'll likely take a bit of time to really get up to speed & there are still questions around his accuracy. The Titans have drafted a player we really like in receiver Kendall Wright, who was Robert Griffin III's main target at Baylor, he'll bolster a receiving corps that already have Kenny Britt & give Locker at least two potent targets to hit. On defense the Titans are merely ordinary & don't come up with enough big plays, gaining just 28 sacks (2nd worst) & 11 interceptions in 2011, they've done little to improve in 2012. The Jaguars meanwhile were dreadful through the air last year & ranked stone last in offensive yards gained even though they had the league's leading rusher in Maurice Jones-Drew, he still hasn't reported into the team & they could be pathetic offensively without him. Defensively the Jags are a very good outfit & ranked 6th last year but it won't be enough to make up for their offense. We like the drafting of top receiving prospect Justin Blackmon & they've signed Laurent Robinson who was phenomenal for the Cowboys last year after starting the year as cover at the receiver position, of course if Blaine Gabbert keeps throwing like he has done it won't matter how good those two are - the Jags are going to fail to score very often at all.

(Arian Foster is the man to lead the Texans to the promised land & Super Bowl glory 2012)

So we move onto the Texans & we think they have an outstanding chance this season with some of the top individual players in the league at key positions, depth & good coaching. Arian Foster is just about there as the NFL's best running back, he's explosive & can break off huge runs yet still pick his way through when down by the goal line & is potent out of the backfield too (as 617 receiving yards in 2011 shows). In such a quarterback focused league (4 of the 6 highest passing totals were achieved in 2011) it might just be that the selectors have a bit of a rethink this year & opt to stay away from the passers & if that happens Arian Foster has a distinct possibility of being picked for Most Valuable Player & Coral offer odds of 18/1. Away from Foster the Texans have one of the best receivers in the league in Andre Johnson, the only worry with him is whether he can prove durable enough after only making 7 games last year with hamstring problems - in his 3 seasons prior he had receiving yards of 1,569, 1,575 & 1,216 showing how brilliant he can be.

On defense the Texans ranked 2nd overall last year & felt confident enough to let Mario Williams join the Bills this year, J.J. Watt was dominant in his rookie year & should improve again while Brooks Reed & Bryan Cushing will be scary again as linebackers. The Texans played with 3rd choice passer T.J. Yates for their last 6 games yet were still able to win half of those games & a playoff game before only falling to the Ravens thanks in part to one of the worst playoff mistakes seen from punt returner Jacoby Jones (who happens to have signed for the Ravens now). With passer Matt Schaub back & feeling healthy, he looked assured in preseason, the Texans surely have what it takes to progress this year & odds of 12/1 for the Super Bowl are too big for a side that have every potential to put up a big win record  secure home field advantage for the playoffs.

Selections:
San Diego Chargers to win AFC West at 21/10 (Stan James)
Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North at 8/5 (Pinnacle Sports)
Buffalo Bills to finish 2nd in AFC East at 2/1 (Sportingbet)
Houston Texans to win the Super Bowl at 12/1 (Bodog & Youwin)
Arian Foster to be NFL MVP at 18/1 (Coral)