NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 10 - Terrific Texans can hunt down Brutal Bears

The NFL is back & we're getting to the final stretch where every game is crucial as teams look to get the records they'll need to make the playoffs & make a Super Bowl run, the bookies seem to think most divisions are already decided but there could be a few upsets along the way & it may even be that the Falcons unbeaten record is under serious threat tonight against New Orleans. We've previewed a couple of games as we look to turn another tidy profit after last Sunday's straightforward pair of selections.

St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

We start off with what may be an uninspiring contest to watch but a decent betting opportunity between two teams that have been struggling to put points on the board recently but are tough to beat on the other side of the ball. The 49ers scored just 40 points in their 3 games before the bye week & the Rams bagged just 41 points in their 3 games, including the 45-7 loss to the Patriots at Wembley.

(Daryl Richardson is becoming a big part of the Rams' offense)

The sides rank 24th (St Louis) & 28th (San Francisco) in passing yards & instead tend to rely on their running game (both rank in bottom 6 teams for passing attempts per game). That reliance on the run means that the clock keeps running more often (incomplete passes stop the clock) & that tends to lead to lower scoring games with less plays & that is reflected with 5 of the 49ers' games going under today's set points total & half of the Rams' games have gone under 39 points too. There's good reason to think it even more likely today as the 49ers have conceded the fewest points per game in the league with a dominant defense that harasses the quarterback & is rock solid against the running game, Aldon Smith is a particular star but the whole unit is outright scary.

The Rams' defensive record would look better if it wasn't for that blowout against the Patriots & the week before they ran into the high powered Green Bay offense & gave up 30 points there (not disrespectable against them), when they faced some of the lesser lights on offense they've limited those teams pretty well: Seahawks 13 points; Cardinals 3 points; Dolphins 17 points. On the offensive side of the ball the Rams have really missed Danny Amendola at receiver after his shoulder injury, he was really emerging as a big threat & there is a possibility he could return in this one but they are still a little light in passing weapons even with Chris Givens recently coming through as a legitimate deep threat with catches of 50+ yards in each of his last 3 games. Both teams will lean heavily on their tailbacks but whilst Frank Gore has been averaging 82 rushing yards a game the Rams' feature back Steven Jackson hasn't had one 80+ yard game this year & Daryl Richardson is now sharing many of the carries. We can't see anything other than a defensive battle here & San Francisco should win, the value lies however with the St Louis Rams with a big +12.5 point lead on the handicap because if it's low scoring the 49ers will struggle to pull away.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears

For our money this is the standout game of the week with two highly fancied teams for the Super Bowl from either conference taking each other on with identical 7&1 records having both only been beaten by the Packers this season - it's the Houston Texans travelling to the Chicago Bears for a rumble!

(Matt Schaub - well protected by his O-Line)

If there is a word of warning for backers of either of these teams it would be that they've both had fairly undemanding schedules for the most part & that when they did come up against the high powered offense of the Packers both sides failed, they did both bounce back creditably though & both have some scarily good defenses & excellent running backs. Both teams rank joint 3rd with sacks gained this season with 25 each & J.J. Watt continues to prove  unstoppable for the Texans whilst the Bears have 4 players with 4 or more sacks & Charles 'Peanut' Tillman has forced an incredible 7 fumbles on the year (as many as the Texans whole team).

Both sides are also great against the run with the Texans ranking 2nd in yards given up (& would be1st but no one bothers to run against Tampa Bay as their pass defense is so laughable!) & the Bears rank 6th, the big thing to note about the Texans is that along with New England they've allowed only one run of 20+ yards all year showing the high levels of concentration they possess. The Texans are 4th against the pass whilst the Bears only rank 16th, the big difference being that Chicago have come up with a huge 17 interceptions & are generally built for turnovers with Tim Jennings coming up with 6 of his 13 career interceptions this season. Houston's cornerbacks Kareem Jackson & Johnathan Joseph have come up with a few picks themselves but the Bears are almost unmatchable in terms of their picks.

(The Bears' Jay Cutler - not so well protected...)

So we've identified both teams are ace defensively but the big difference is in thee quarterback play & protection for these two sides. Whilst Matt Schaub has been sacked just 10 times all season & also thrown just 4 interceptions, Jay Cutler has been sacked 28 times (2nd highest in league) & thrown 8 picks. It's just going to be much easier to get to Cutler than it is to Schaub & the Bears gameplan of creating turnovers may not work in this one. The Bears also only have one wideout with over 200 receiving yards, Brandon Marshall, & although he's been excellent the Texans will be pleased to know they only have one receiving target to really worry about. The Texans have 4 receivers with 200+ yards including their fullback James Casey & tight end Owen Daniels as they use their play action passing game to full effect. We like Chicago running back Matt Forte but can't see him having much joy in this one as Houston have the speedy players too stop him being elusive & this could instead be the game where Arian Foster proves he is 'the' elite running back in the NFL. The Bears defense are great but the Texans are too efficient & the league's 2nd highest scorers can prevail in this one at odds of 11/10, also take Houston to win by 7-12 points at 6/1 with William Hill.

Selections:
St Louis Rams to beat San Francisco 49ers with +12.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Chicago Bears at 11/10 (Ladbrokes) & by 7-12 points at 6/1 (William Hill)

NFL Week 8 - Hernandez & The Gronk can Waltz to Wembley Win

This week is British NFL fans best of the season other than the Super Bowl as the NFL bandwagon rolls into London town for the always sold out International Series game, it's a big one this year as last year's Super Bowl runners up the New England Patriots come up against the improving St Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. We're taking a look at the big one for UK NFL nuts plus another game to see where the betting value lies, after last week where 6 teams had bye weeks there is a fuller set of fixtures with just the usual 4 teams resting.

New England Patriots @ St Louis Rams

In this game the nominal home team (meaning they gave up a home fixture in the US) are the St Louis Rams but it might not feel that way when they get into the stadium as the New England Patriots are the best supported team in the UK by a margin & will have plenty cheering them on. The Patriots have had far more success than the Rams in recent years meaning they've experienced big games & they have the stars to get fans excited too, it's easy to see why they are strong favourites in this one.

(Rob Gronkowski can wow the Wembley crowd)

The Patriots are second favourites for the Super Bowl but only have a 4&3 record, with their three losses coming by a combined total of just 4 points with narrow losses against Arizona whilst they were really rolling, the always tough Ravens & then to the defensively sound Seahawks. Those losses clearly could have gone either way & we could now be looking at an unbeaten Patriots side, they're ranked first in total offensive yards & can hurt opposing defenses in so many ways with their running looking more impressive this year to complement Tom Brady's passing game. Stevan Ridley has been the lead rusher for the Pats & has been averaging a steady 4.4 yards plus has crossed the goalline for touchdowns on 4 occasions, the biggest dangers in & around the end zone though are the star tight end pair of Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez. Both Hernandez & 'the Gronk' are horrible matchups for opposing defenders as they are built like blockers yet have great hands for receiving meaning they can get extra yards after the catch regularly, Gronkowski has already gained 5 TDs on the season, with 2 coming last week, & he looks a fair price at 6/1 to score the first in this one.

St Louis have certainly improved from last year where they won just twice & they already have 3 victories, 2 coming against the Seahawks & Cardinals so you could argue they have a form line on New England. Danny Amendola was turning into a star for the Rams but is out for a while with injury & they've subsequently lost their last two (against the Packers last week was no disgrace) & their running game hasn't looked good enough to cover any flaws in the passing of Sam Bradford with Steven Jackson's production down on last year at just 3.8 yards a carry & one touchdown, it looks unlikely he'll improve here against a decent run defense. The Rams best chance of winning here is by putting pressure on Tom Brady & they do rank 5th in sacks this year, unfortunately for them the Patriots mish mash of a defense has actually done a pretty good job protecting Brady & he's mobile enough to make defenders miss anyway.

In our opinion New England are by far the more likely side to rise to the occasion & we can see them putting plenty of points on the board plus their sometimes suspect secondary won't be too troubled by the Rams' mediocre reciever corps. Rather than take the Patriots on the handicap we like the prices available for them to win by between 7-12 points at 4/1 & 13-18 at a huge 9/1 with bwin.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

The Chargers have the potential to be genuinely dangerous this year but have been hampered by the incredibly inconsistent play of their quarterback Philip Rivers who was at one time definitely amongst the elite  but hasn't reached those standards in the last season & a half, coming off a bye week to the Browns however could be just the tonic tp his passing woes.

(We're putting our trust in Philip Rivers against the Browns)

The Browns have been pretty lousy on the stats this year, ranking 26th defensively against the pass & 24th against the run & that has shown in their results with just one win in their 7 games. The Chargers meanwhile rank 2nd against the run, allowing just 71.2 yards on the ground per game & that should help limit the Browns' first round draft pick & ace young running back Trent Richardson who has become their major weapon leading in receptions also with 24. Defensive backs Eric Weddle & Quentin Jammer will also make it difficult for Brandon Weeden to pass, the Browns' quarterback had looked a little better in the last three weeks but the Chargers' defense are a step up from the Bengals & Colts. They will be hoping that Josh Gordon can come up with another monster touchdown reception as that has been their big weapon in recent weeks, he's averaging a scarcely believable 23.8 yards per catch!

The Chargers are coming off a bye week & that will be a big benefit as Rivers needed to work out some of the problems in his game & Ryan Mathews at running back continues to recover from injury, he should be getting to full strength now & is capable of a big game here. Rivers has good receioving targets in Malcolm Floyd & Antonio Gates to throw to plus Robert Meachem seems to be coming into the game more now as evidenced by his two touchdowns against his previous team the Saints. Overall we feel the Chargers have an awful lot more going for them than the less than mediocre Browns & even with the risk that is Rivers' quarterback play they look an outstanding bet giving up just 3 points on the handicap.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat St Louis Rams by 7-12 points at 4/1 (General) & 13-18 points at 9/1 (bwin)
Rob Gronkowski to score first touchdown in Patriots v Rams game at 6/1 (General)
San Diego Chargers to beat Cleveland Browns with -3 points on the handicap at Evens (Various)

Cardinals & Rams in a Defensive Dance-Off

It's been a very nice week for us so far with 3 winners from 3 selections at odds of 11/4, Evens & 3/1 so we'll try to keep it going with a selection from Thursday night's NFL game. Now is the time to take advantage of perceptions & prices based on the limited knowledge gained from relatively few games into the season, take note of which sides have played  stronger teams & get one up on the punters who simply look at the last couple of results a team has regardless of who they were playing!

Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams

The NFL game today comes from the much maligned NFC West, but although the teams in the division, apart from the 49ers, were expected to struggle they've all come out & put up some decent performances & gained results especially the Arizona Cardinals who remain one of three unbeaten sides in the league. Here the Cardinals travel to St Louis to take on the Rams who finished with a woeful 2&14 record last year but they've already equalled last year's win record by triumphing against the Redskins & divisional rivals the Seattle Seahawks.

(Danny Amendola has stepped up big time for the St Louis Rams)

The Rams look to have a little more about them now & have a big advantage with this being a home game as the Cardinals will barely have time to get a practice in between their Sunday game & now with the travel to St Louis. Steven Jackson would normally be the Rams' go to guy but he's been struggling a little with a groin problem & has only gained 3.3 yards per rush attempt so they've used rookie Daryl Richardson plenty of times too & he's made a nice start to his career with 5.0 yards per attempt. St Louis's real offensive star this year though is wide receiver Danny Amendola who has gone wild this year with 351 yards & 31 catches already to put him 21 receptions clear of the next Rams player. They've also looked pretty solid defensively & have already come up with 8 interceptions which should help against the Cardinals' lethargic offense that has only racked up an average of 271 yards per game, although that is in part thanks to them regularly gaining excellent starting field position & not having to go so far to the end zone. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan seems to be enjoying himself after moving from the Titans & he's accounted for 3 of those interceptions, he's also not afraid to get in opposition players faces when needed.

The Cardinals are where they are, with an excellent 4&0 start thanks to a great defense & great special teams including the indomitable Patrick Peterson who's been great on defense & kick returns this year. Inside linebacker Daryl Washington has stepped up from his first two promising seasons  is now getting through opposition offensive lines with regularity & has already picked up 34 tackles in jut 4 games plus 3 sacks. he offense of the Cards just can't be shouted about too much, ranking jut 31st of 32 in the league in terms of yards gained & the rush has been pretty poor indeed with Beanie Wells dropping off after a 1,000 yard rushing season last year - he's now gaining an average of just 2.6 yards per attempt & new first choice Ryan Williams isn't doing much better. Quarterback Kevin Kolb has come in after John Skelton got injured & was being very efficient for his first couple of games, if not getting many yards, then against Miami he threw his first two interceptions of the season bu also gained 324 yards as they came from behind, that game probably forced the Cardinals' hand a little but he just about managed it whilst still giving cause for concern. 

It's a pretty tough game to pick a winner from as neither side are great offensively & the Cardinals have momentum but the Rams have the home advantage in a short week, instead we think a bet of this being a low scoring game & going under 38.5 points is a prudent selection. The Rams' last two games have totaled 29 & 32 points whilst the Cardinals' have only had one game go over the line which was last week's overtime win against Miami.

Selections:

Under 38.5 points in Arizona Cardinals v St Louis Rams game at 10/11

St Louis Lambs to the Slaughter in Detroit

Well we started off with a nice winner on Wednesday night as the Dallas Cowboys didn't need their 4 point head start to beat the New York Giants & we're looking to carry that on in the opening weekend games as we look to find mismatches  exploit them for betting $$$. Follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above - we love sports & betting & love to have more punters join in the conversation.

We fear for the St Louis Rams as they visit the Detroit Lions in their noisy Ford Field stadium on Sunday evening, this is a side that managed just two wins in 2011 up against a team that finished 10&6 with their only failures came against the elite sides of the NFC. To sum up the difference in class between these two teams look at the total points they scored in 2011, there were a huge 474 points for Detroit (4th overall) & just 193 on the board for St Louis (a league worst 32nd) - it seems inconceivable that the Rams can even get close here.

(What a player. What a man. What a MEGATRON! Calvin Johnson for the Detroit Lions)

The Lions have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL with quarterback Matt Stafford prepared to air it out against  anyone & he has probably the league's best receiver in 'Megatron' Calvin Johnson as his main receiver. In addition to Johnson they also have a top ight end in Brandon Pettigrew & Titus Young at wide receiver, Young had a very good rookie season but the whisper is that he looked great in practice & is ready to have a breakout year. The Lions do have problems at running back as first choice Jahvid Best has worryingly still jot yet been cleared after suffering concussion symptoms in late November of 2011, they remain confident he will be cleared at some point but for now Kevin Smith will lead the line. They're pretty good on defense too with the dominating Ndamukong Suh being the leader, he's violently excellent & will look to rough up the Rams offensive line as he aims to get to Sam Bradford. Suh is joined by Kyle Vanen Bosch to form an ace pass rush & we love the big play potential of cornerback Chris Houston who has returend 3 of his 9 interceptions for touchdowns.

The Rams are under a new coach as owner Stan Kroenke (also Arsenal's major shareholder) has brought in long time Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher & they will be desperate for improvement. However new coaching means new plays & schemes & it could take a while before we see any real progress from St Louis. Sam Bradford is a talented if maybe somewhat fragile quarterback, it doesn't help that his offensive line isn't good enough at protecting him & his receiver corps is amongst the weakest in the league. The Rams do have a good tailback in Steven Jackson & a lot of their offense will rest on him again & we like the improvement they've made at defensive tackle selecting the huge Michael Brockers in the first round of the draft & bringing in Kendall Langford from Miami. St Louis look to have way too much to do in this one & the Detroit Lions can cover the -7.5 point handicap with ease. Paddy Power are also going a standout 11/2 about Calvin Johnson to grab the first touchdown, it looks an excellent bet for the receiver who gained 16 last year & also had one from his only reception in their last preseason game.

(The Miami Dolphins aren't very good but their defense is & they could frustrate the Texans)

Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans look to start off at their home of their Reliant Stadium with a nice gentle one against the rather hapless Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins actually had a pretty mean defense last year ranking 6th in terms of points given up & 3rd overall against the run, that is a huge plus when you  have to come up against the Texans' indomitable running back Arian Foster. Along with the Broncos (who had running QB Tim Tebow), Houston ran the ball more than any other team with over 34 attempts a game, with Foster ably backed up by Ben Tate, if they try the same tactics here the Dolphins are a side that can potentially slow them down but not stop them. The Texans are unlikely to run quite so much now that they have starting quarterback Matt Schaub fit & he looked pretty sharp in preseason, he'll have one of the league's best deep threats in star receiver Andre Johnson & emerging wide receivers Lestar Jean & DeVier Posey should also offer options.

We've no optimism that the Dolphins will have sorted their offensive problems this season with the installation of promising rookie Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback, even if Tannehill performs he really doesn't have the weapons at receiver or tight end to pass to. The Dolphins also aren't great at running back - Reggie Bush has done well since joining from New Orleans but he's basically been disappointing as a pro after being selected 2nd overall in 2006, it remains touch & go whether his knees will hold out for a full season. Even if the Dolphins did have a decent attack trying to implement that against the Texans outstanding D just wouldn't be simple, they're strong at the line & with their defensive backs too & will shut down plenty of sides this year. The total points line has been set at 42.5 in this game but that looks too high, in 2011 both sides had 11 of their 16 regular season games going under 43 points & there's no reason to think it will be different here.

(Touchdown 'Vulture' Michael Bush will be looking to pick up the pieces for the Chicago Bears)

We love some of the value available in the touchdown scorers markets & away from our two games we like the look of Michael Bush for the Chicago Bears. Matt Forte is the Bears main man but they do like to protect him when they get around the goal line & he only actually got 4 touchdowns last year (3 rushing & 1 receiving), they often went to big Marion Barber last year but he's retired & they've brought in Michael Bush from the Oakland Raiders. Bush is renowned for his ability down near the goal line & gained 8 TDs in both 2010 & 2011, with the way the Bears play he is just too big at 11/1 to score first.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat St Louis Rams with a -7.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Calvin Johnson to score first touchdown in St Louis Rams v Detroit Lions game at 11/2 (Paddy Power)
Miami Dolphins v Houston Texans under 42.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Michael Bush to score first touchdown in Indianapolis Colts v Chicago Bears game at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)