NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 8 - Hernandez & The Gronk can Waltz to Wembley Win

This week is British NFL fans best of the season other than the Super Bowl as the NFL bandwagon rolls into London town for the always sold out International Series game, it's a big one this year as last year's Super Bowl runners up the New England Patriots come up against the improving St Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. We're taking a look at the big one for UK NFL nuts plus another game to see where the betting value lies, after last week where 6 teams had bye weeks there is a fuller set of fixtures with just the usual 4 teams resting.

New England Patriots @ St Louis Rams

In this game the nominal home team (meaning they gave up a home fixture in the US) are the St Louis Rams but it might not feel that way when they get into the stadium as the New England Patriots are the best supported team in the UK by a margin & will have plenty cheering them on. The Patriots have had far more success than the Rams in recent years meaning they've experienced big games & they have the stars to get fans excited too, it's easy to see why they are strong favourites in this one.

(Rob Gronkowski can wow the Wembley crowd)

The Patriots are second favourites for the Super Bowl but only have a 4&3 record, with their three losses coming by a combined total of just 4 points with narrow losses against Arizona whilst they were really rolling, the always tough Ravens & then to the defensively sound Seahawks. Those losses clearly could have gone either way & we could now be looking at an unbeaten Patriots side, they're ranked first in total offensive yards & can hurt opposing defenses in so many ways with their running looking more impressive this year to complement Tom Brady's passing game. Stevan Ridley has been the lead rusher for the Pats & has been averaging a steady 4.4 yards plus has crossed the goalline for touchdowns on 4 occasions, the biggest dangers in & around the end zone though are the star tight end pair of Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez. Both Hernandez & 'the Gronk' are horrible matchups for opposing defenders as they are built like blockers yet have great hands for receiving meaning they can get extra yards after the catch regularly, Gronkowski has already gained 5 TDs on the season, with 2 coming last week, & he looks a fair price at 6/1 to score the first in this one.

St Louis have certainly improved from last year where they won just twice & they already have 3 victories, 2 coming against the Seahawks & Cardinals so you could argue they have a form line on New England. Danny Amendola was turning into a star for the Rams but is out for a while with injury & they've subsequently lost their last two (against the Packers last week was no disgrace) & their running game hasn't looked good enough to cover any flaws in the passing of Sam Bradford with Steven Jackson's production down on last year at just 3.8 yards a carry & one touchdown, it looks unlikely he'll improve here against a decent run defense. The Rams best chance of winning here is by putting pressure on Tom Brady & they do rank 5th in sacks this year, unfortunately for them the Patriots mish mash of a defense has actually done a pretty good job protecting Brady & he's mobile enough to make defenders miss anyway.

In our opinion New England are by far the more likely side to rise to the occasion & we can see them putting plenty of points on the board plus their sometimes suspect secondary won't be too troubled by the Rams' mediocre reciever corps. Rather than take the Patriots on the handicap we like the prices available for them to win by between 7-12 points at 4/1 & 13-18 at a huge 9/1 with bwin.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

The Chargers have the potential to be genuinely dangerous this year but have been hampered by the incredibly inconsistent play of their quarterback Philip Rivers who was at one time definitely amongst the elite  but hasn't reached those standards in the last season & a half, coming off a bye week to the Browns however could be just the tonic tp his passing woes.

(We're putting our trust in Philip Rivers against the Browns)

The Browns have been pretty lousy on the stats this year, ranking 26th defensively against the pass & 24th against the run & that has shown in their results with just one win in their 7 games. The Chargers meanwhile rank 2nd against the run, allowing just 71.2 yards on the ground per game & that should help limit the Browns' first round draft pick & ace young running back Trent Richardson who has become their major weapon leading in receptions also with 24. Defensive backs Eric Weddle & Quentin Jammer will also make it difficult for Brandon Weeden to pass, the Browns' quarterback had looked a little better in the last three weeks but the Chargers' defense are a step up from the Bengals & Colts. They will be hoping that Josh Gordon can come up with another monster touchdown reception as that has been their big weapon in recent weeks, he's averaging a scarcely believable 23.8 yards per catch!

The Chargers are coming off a bye week & that will be a big benefit as Rivers needed to work out some of the problems in his game & Ryan Mathews at running back continues to recover from injury, he should be getting to full strength now & is capable of a big game here. Rivers has good receioving targets in Malcolm Floyd & Antonio Gates to throw to plus Robert Meachem seems to be coming into the game more now as evidenced by his two touchdowns against his previous team the Saints. Overall we feel the Chargers have an awful lot more going for them than the less than mediocre Browns & even with the risk that is Rivers' quarterback play they look an outstanding bet giving up just 3 points on the handicap.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat St Louis Rams by 7-12 points at 4/1 (General) & 13-18 points at 9/1 (bwin)
Rob Gronkowski to score first touchdown in Patriots v Rams game at 6/1 (General)
San Diego Chargers to beat Cleveland Browns with -3 points on the handicap at Evens (Various)

NFL Week 4 - Patriots can Bounce Back against Buffalo Bills

We're now into week 4 of the NFL & there are only three teams left with unbeaten records, we're taking a look at one of those unbeaten sides in the Arizona Cardinals plus two other games as we look for more winning bets.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

In our first game we see two teams with mirror records as the Patriots won their first game before failing in their next two whilst AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills lost their opener before winning twice afterwards, we think they'll end up with identical 2&2 records after this one as the Patriots look to keep up their dominance of the Bills having won 16 of the last 17 games.



(Wes Welker remains the Patriots' top receiver - whatever the reports say)

 

The Bills' success this year has so far come down, pretty much, to the play of running back C.J. Spiller after stepping in for Fred Jackson after injury - he's gained 308 yards & 3 touchdowns as well as another 114 yards receiveing & another TD. Spiller is listed as questionable for this one though & Fred Jackson the same, the Bills were suggesting both could end up playing but it looks like neither will be at full fitness & that could prove costly. The Patriots are also a huge step up in opposition after facing the Chiefs & Browns & shouldn't be so easy to bully, the Bills were handed their asses in week one v the Jets & New England are a substantially better team than them. This should be a much easier assignment for the Patriots after travelling to the Ravens & nearly prevailing & previously running into 2012 surprise team the Arizona Cardinals.

New England have been much more balanced on offense this year, being happy to run the ball with Stevan Ridley & Danny Woodhead but their strength still lies in Tom Brady's passing & we think a monster game could be around the corner. There's been a lot of talk about how Wes Welker may be being phased out a little of the passing game & although Brandon Lloyd has had 6 more receptions Welker still leads the team with 251 receiving yards. Along with Lloyd & Gronkowski plus the emerging Julian Edelman, Welker offers Tom Brady some outstanding passing targets - Welker led the league in receiving yards last year & gained 9 TDs so 10/1 for him to score the first one in this game looks too big to be ignored. New England could win this one by some margin if they get in a rhythm & look to be being underestimated by the bookies after two losses against good sides, take the Patriots on the handicap with them giving up just 3.5 points to the Bills here.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Last week the San Diego Chargers were just awful against the Atlanta Falcons on both sides of the ball but there's good reason to believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be a better matchup at least for their offense here at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have already given up 99 points this season from their three games & they just haven't done well enough in terms of putting pressure on the opposition quarterback with just 5 sacks (4 from Justin Houston) & one interception, add to that they've gained just one fumble recovery & they just aren't winning the ball back often enough. Philip Rivers looked to be flustered when under pressure against Atlanta but should be better this week & the Chargers first choice running back Ryan Mathews should improve for his seasonal debut last week, offering them more offensive options.

(Ryan Mathews returning is a boost to San Diego's rushing attack..... as long as he doesn't fumble)

 

The Chiefs actually have the top ranked offense in terms of yards gained thanks to their excellent running game where they have a lot of strength in depth with Jamaal Charles already having racked up 323 yards & Shaun Draughn & Peyton Hillis behind him with 107 & 93 yards respectively. Quarterback Matt Cassel has been serviceable but has thrown 4 interceptions to only 3 TDs but he knows his job is to manage the football whilst the rushers play so well - Dwayne Bowe & Dexter McCluster remain his only targets of note. On the San Diego side they seem to have a lot of depth at receiver without any real standout player other than Malcolm Floyd who is their only player to reach double figure receptions, that does make it tough for opposition defenses as they can't just lock down one player to stop them.

The Chargers will be looking to bounce right back after only scoring 3 points last week so expect to see them come out & throw the ball, Kansas have given up 40, 34 & 24 points in their 3 games so San Diego should get some points on the board. The Chiefs' rushing game may also not be so effective here as the Chargers rank 4th on defense in that category & due to the favourable matchups we think San Diego should just about prevail so backing them to win by 1-6 points at 7/2 looks the best bet.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have been undeniably the biggest surprise team in the NFL this year having picked up three wins for a perfect start & gaining them against some good sides in the Patriots, Eagles & tough Seahawks - those first two games were close but they absolutely blew Philadelphia out of the water last Sunday & will look to do the same against Miami here.

(Kevin Kolb has the chance to lead the Cardinals to an unlikely 4&0 start to the season)

 

Miami have had a pretty tough start, playing three defensively sound teams, only winning against the Oakland Raiders in week two, they'll be disappointed with last week's result as they went down to divisional rivals the New York Jets in overtime & it could be hard to pick themselves up from that. We don't rate the Jets at all so Miami's loss last week doesn't give us confidence that they hold any hope in this one. The Cardinals' quarterback Kevin Kolb really just needs to manage games whilst his defense plays so outstandingly, he has an excellent receiver in Larry Fitzgerald & that combination could work well in this one. The Cardinals' first round draft pick Michael Floyd also saw his first reception (it went for a TD) last week & offers more options & they may just air it out a little more this week with Andre Roberts also proving a dependable target. The Cards also have excellent special teams & Patrick Peterson continues to dazzle when returning kicks, they'll regularly gain great field position making it much simpler for them to score.

The Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Tannehill & running back Reggie Bush have both surprised people with higher levels of performance than expected but they are both some way off elite & could both be shut down by the Arizona defense. Miami are pretty sound defensively but they'll need to be as the offense won't score too many points for them here, we can see Arizona gaining a lead & slowly crushing the life out of the Dolphins here,the offer of 8/11 for the Cardinals to be winning at half time & full time looks a great bet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills with a -3.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Paddy Power)
San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs by 1-6 points at 7/2 (General)
Arizona Cardinals HT/FT v Miami Dolphins at 8/11 (Ladbrokes & William Hill)

Super Bowl - Giants can Cruz to victory over Patriots

After a gruelling season that often looked like it might not get underway due to a labour dispute between the players & owners we're down to just two teams from 32 for the 2012 Super Bowl with the New England Patriots up against the New York Giants in a rematch from 2008. This promises to be a great game with both teams having potent pasing offenses with excellent quarterbacks & receivers, their strengths are somewhat similar & the deciding factor in the game could be outstanding individual performances, mistakes or clever coaching decisions. We're going to have an in depth look at both sides & try to come up with the key info to give an advantage when placing your bets on the game. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney where we talk about the NFL & other sports, either find us on Twitter or simply click the follow button at the top of the page.

(Tom Brady is searching for his 4th Super Bowl ring with the Patriots)

The New England Patriots really do walk their own path, whilst every other team seems to go for 6' 2" plus wide receivers they had the league leader with the 5' 9" Wes Welker & instead they've led the way with the use of tight ends with the physically dominating Rob Gronkowski & also Aaron Hernandez causing havoc in opposing defenses with their exceptional catching abilities. The big problem for them this week is that Gronkowski who has had a huge 20 touchdown catches in regular & postseason combined is listed as questionable for Sunday with an ankle injury sustained against the Ravens, if he was out it would be a big blow & even if he does play there have to be doubts whether he's fit enough to do the damage he usually does. They still have an outstanding passing game thanks to having an all-time great quarterback in Tom Brady & a great offensive line too that only allowed 32 sacks even though they attempted to pass over 600 times in the regular season & just 1 sack in their two playoff games against two of the best defenses around. It helps that Brady doesn't hold on to the ball for too long as they tend to go for medium gains in the passing game & get 1st downs rather than down the field passes for touchdowns. Sticking to that style will be important even if they are without Gronkowski as the Giants are keen to use their swarming pass rush to put pressure on Brady at all times, if he holds onto the ball for too long he will be punished.

(We think Victor Cruz can have a big game against New England's secondary)

The Giants pass game is quite different from New England's with Eli Manning having a strong arm & the receivers to get deep down the field & leap up to catch the ball even when covered with receivers, we've seen Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham do it all season & with success. Those receivers can also do it in the shorter passing game but the real danger they offer is down the field, Travis Beckum a tight end with just 5 regular season catches has stepped up with 7 postseason grabs & will be looked to again in short yardage situations when they go to pass. The Giants only allowed 28 sacks in the regular season & the Patriots are only average at getting pressure on the passer & that could be telling because if Eli gets time in the pocket & his receivers get downfield they will surely punish the Patriots' weak secondary that saw them give up a league worst 79 passing plays of 20+ yards. At 11/10 to score at anytime Victor Cruz looks a decent bet, he had 10 receptions last week against the 49ers top defense & although he didn't score he had 9 regular season touchdowns & over 1500 receiving yards even though he didn't begin the season as a regular starter. Eli Manning has improved as a passer since winning in the Super Bowl 4 years ago but it would still take a fool to say he's better than Brady, they have very different passing games & although the Patriots edge it here the better matchup today is definitely for the Giants.

(BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the Patriots chief rushing threat & looks overpriced to score a TD)

Both teams have pass first offenses but the running game could still prove significant & they won't want to become predictable & easier to defend by abandoning the run. The Patriots acually have a respectable rushing game & ranked 20th in the regular season even though their backs aren't exactly stars with BenJarvus Green-Ellis & little Danny Woodhead doing a steady job whilst rarely being spectacular. Woodhead is looked to in the passing game reasonably often but is rarely used when close to the goal line so Green-Ellis makes a great deal of appeal to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11, he has been handed the ball on no less than 28 occasions in the two playoff games & he managed to run one in against the Ravens last week to add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Giants rushers have been simply useless this year & whilst we've heard many people say they can come good here we just don't see it, they have two backs who've been respectable in the past but this year both Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs have failed to pick up enough yards to make an impact leaving the Giants ranked a league worst 32nd in total yards & average yards gained rushing. They don't do a bad job when close to the goal line often managing to power their way in in short yardage situations but they rarely get the big gains needed to alleviate pressure from the passing game. The Giants don't tend to abandon the rush though meaning New England will have to defend against it but we'd be surprised if they manage much over 100 yards rushing in the whole game although it could still be important in gaining the first downs they need.

(Jason Pierre-Paul & the rest of the Giants pass rush could be the key to winning here)

The area of the game that we see this really swinging to the Giants is on defense as we're big fans of their pass rush, especially the defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul & Justin Tuck, Pierre-Paul has been outstanding with 16.5 sacks & regularly forcing passers into making mistakes. Those two are backed up by Mathias Kiwanuka with the tackles Joseph & Canty getting a great push up front to create the sack opportunities. Further back Antrel Rolle continues to show he's a top safety & had a career high 96 tackles this year, he still doesn't get huge amounts of interceptions but has the athleticism to cover most receviers when they go deep, he may need to use that athleticism if the Patriots look to the pacy Deion Branch to cover for Gronkowski's injury problems. The Patriots are poor at the cornerback & safety positions, Devin McCourty might be their best in the secondary & he's had a lot of tackles but has dropped right down in picks with just 2 interceptions compared to 7 in his rookie year. They are better closer to the line & the huge Vince Wilfork continues to be a pleasure to watch using his size to dominate the opposing linemen & he even got his 1st two interceptions of his 8 year career this season & picking up 19 & 28 yards returning on the two occasions. Linebacker Rob Ninkovich has had his best season & seems to have the pace & power to cause problems all over the field for an opposing defense, the Patriots will try to get him through to Eli Manning on plenty of plays. Both teams rank high in interceptions with New England having 23 in the regular season & the Giants having 20, the Patriots' figure is probably increased due to them having such good leads at times & teams having to throw desperate passes, they still have to grab them out of the air though so it's impressive, we don't see them out-muscling the Giants' recivers to get those picks too easily though. In terms of special teams both have pretty decent units with their returners being steady & unlikely to cough the ball up too often, Devin Thomas for the Giants is probably the most dangerous with safe hands & some great raw pace. Kicking-wise Lawrence Tynes has proven that he has the coolness in big game situations for the Giants & Stephen Gostkowski looks to be highly competent with a decent range for the Patriots, you would have no qualms about sending either on to kick a last minute field goal to win the game.

(Eli Manning can celebrate a second Super Bowl victory over the Patriots)

This isn't an easy one to call especially with Tom Brady having won 3 out of the 4 Super Bowls he's been to with only the game against these opponents being unsuccessful, the Patriots were superior in the regular season with the Giants only just squeezing into the playoffs but New York look to be the side on a roll & we're with the Giants at odds of 13/10. The Patriots didn't manage one regular season win against a side that ended up with a winning record yet even with that weak schedule they still had the 2nd worst defense in the league in yards given up, they lost to the Giants earlier in the year & although they have a great offense Gronkowski is key to that & either him missing or not fully fit is a big blow. Eli Manning is exuding confidence whereas Brady didn't throw a touchdown last week for the first time in 36 games in the divisional playoff against the Ravens, the Giants will be feeling great after going to the NFC's number one & two seeded teams & beating them in their own back yards. Tom Coughlin's men have put behind their dodgy mid season run of form & look to have all of the momentum, if they can win the value lies with bcaking Victor Cruz to get the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award at 14/1, it most likely goes to the quarterback so a saver on Eli Manning at 2/1 with VictorBet isn't a bad option, we just feel Cruz has the explosive sort of plays to capture the voters imagination & he could really burn the Patriots.

Selections:
New York Giants to beat New England Patriots at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
New York Giants to win by 7-12 points at 13/2 (PaddyPower & Ladbrokes)
Victor Cruz to win MVP award at 14/1 (general)
Victor Cruz to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11 (Betfred)

NFL Championship games - One step from the Super Bowl

A great season of football is just about winding up as the final four teams battle it out for a place in this year's Super Bowl & it means two great matchups with two of the best defenses up against some great offenses led by previous Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Tom Brady & the New England Patriots host the tough, grizzled Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game & the New York Giants have to travel across the country to come up against the NFC's best defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We've got both games previewed & some bets picked out in order to be able to enjoy it even more, as ever you can also follow us on Twitter by clicking the button above where we talk about sports in general & keep you informed of our blog updates.

(Our favourite Patriot little Danny Woodhead can help them sneak past the Ravens)

The AFC Championship is up first & sees two teams who make the playoffs pretty much perennially in the New England Patriots & Baltimore Ravens but the last time either got to the Super Bowl was in the 2007 season when the Patriots lost to the Giants, whereas Batimore have only made it once, in the 2000 season & they beat the Giants. This season the Patriots haven't lost since week 9 (again the Giants!) & have put up extraordinary point scoring performances, putting up 30+ points in 12 of 16 regular season games, they ran over Dever last week & have to be feeling confident. The Ravens also had a great regular season losing just one more than the Patriots as they went 12 & 4 & swept the tough AFC North, they managed to put away the Texans last week with a combination of great defense & Texans mistakes but they were less than impressive on offense, that could be a problem today as Brady always finds a way to score.

(Tight end Ed Dickson offers some value to score for the Ravens)

We've always made it clear that we don't rate Joe Flacco as a quarterback & last week did nothingto change our minds, admittedly he threw two TDs but did start off in awesome field position & only just got over 50% with his completion rate & just 176 passing yards, it wasagainst a very good Texans defense but better quarterbacks would've found ways to counter them. To be fair to Flacco he has only an average to good set of receivers with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith offering the deep threat whilst back Ray Rice gets passed to more than anyone else. They have improved this year at tight end with Ed Dickson coming to the fore but still don't match up to many other teams in production at the position & certainly not the Patriots with Gronkowski & Hernandez. Dickson offers a little value in Paddy Power's 'first to score a touchdown for their team market' at 7/1, he got 5 during the season & is a viable alternative to the all-action Ray Rice. The Ravens offensive strength lies in thir running game & Rice is outstanding but if they need to score quicly they'll haveto go the air & that's unlikely to be sucessful.

(Mr Dependable Wes Welker (no. 83) can get us first touchdown scorer money again)

This is a pretty good matchup for New England as they're dreadful at defending the pass but the Ravens can't pass & they've only lost at home once all year whilst the Ravens 4 defeats have all comeon the road. The Ravens are great all round on defense but are probably a bit better stopping the run than the pass, Lardarius Webb has been exceptional at cornerback recently but he'll have a size mismatch if he covers Welker this week & that could be crucial. Pretty much noone's been able to stop Tom Brady pasing this year & he'll once again look to hit his physically dominant tight ends & Welker, Chad Ochocinco might even get a pass or two thrown his way although Brady's targeted him sparingly so far. The Patriots areloking so confident right now & Brady's arm is on fire, with homefield advantage it looks like they'll overpower the Ravens right from the off & can be beating them at halftime & fulltim at odds of 4/6. It's a different matter whether the Patriots can achieve ultimate success down at Indianapolis but it looks a safe bet that their superior offense can at least get them to the big game. It again looks like the league's leading receiver Wes Welker is being underestimated, odds of 15/2 for him to score the first touchdown & should be taken - he can deliver just like last week.

(Are Tom Coughlin's red hot Giants on their way to Super Bowl rings?)

The NFC Championship game is priced up with both teams pretty near Evens with the San Francisco 49ers marginal favourites courtesy of being at home, hosting the New York Giants at Candlestick Park. Both sides upset the odds last week with the 49ers beating our Super Bowl fancies New Orleans in dramatic late fashion whilst the Giants travelled to Lambeau Field & monstered the Packers in their own stadium in a most impressive win. These sides met here earlier in the season with the 49ers winning 27-20 but that was the start of a little sticky path fo the Giants where they lost 4 in a row, they've well & truly bounced back & have played some dominant football in recent weeks. Eli Manning has started getting a little cocky & is playing well enough to back his mouth up, he has two truly great receivers in Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz & they are ably backed up by Mario Manningham  & rookie tight end Jake Ballard. Even the Giants' running game which ranked dead last in 32nd during the regular season has started to produce in the las few games with Bradshaw & Jacobs making the most of their size.

(The 49ers Vernon Davis is used to celebrating touchdowns)

San Francisco took advantage of a largely soft schedule during the regular seeason but still came up with victories over Pittsburgh, Detroit & the Giants whe they did face better opposition, they rarely scored too heavily (over 30 points just 3 times) but were superb on defense, particularly in the red zone - making opponents settle for field goals & not allowing them to run the ball with any effectiveness. That goes partly down to excellent drafting with their rookie linebacker Aldon Smith looking like one of the league's outright outstanding defenders, he had 14 regular season sacks & is lightning fast & strong as an ox. We can't say we've ever been sold on Alex Smith at quarterback, he's had plenty of chances before this season but never taken them, he is however playing his best footbal right now & has been a model of consistecy & efficiency throwing just 5 interceptions all year with 20 TDs. Smith near enough passes exclusively to Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree, Davis had a monster game last week & can take advantage of the weak Giants secondary this week, he's Evens to get a touchdown at anytime with Skybet.

 (Victor Cruz can catch & run in this one just like he's been doing all season)

The 49ers season has been based on great defense & Frank Gore's powerful runs but they've moved a little away from that in the past two games as they allowed the league's worst scorers, St. Louis, to get 27 points in a meaningful game & conceded 32 to an excellent Saints offense last week, that's hardly terrible news but those were the two highest point totals they conceded all year & it's a trend they can't afford to continue. The Giants have really started to perform when it matters, the hosted the Falcons in their first playoff game this year & held them to just two points & were supremely impressive against Green Bay, those were both better offenses than the 49ers & with everything starting to click we have to side with New York & Eli to do the business & clinch the NFC Championship at 6/5. In the first touchdown scorer market the value lies going with the Giants' Victor Cruz at 10/1, he had 9 TDs in the regular season & a massive 1,536 receiving yards, he's their number one & should be shorter than that.

Selections:
New England Patriots to be beating Baltimore Ravens at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (various)
Ed Dickson to score 1st Ravens touchdown at 7/1 (Paddy Power)

New York Giants to beat San Francisco at 6/5 (Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Victor Cruz  to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet)
Vernon Davis to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet)

Super Saints can crush 49ers Super Bowl dream

Last Sunday was horrible for us betting wise as both the Atlanta Falcons & Pittsburgh Steelers woefully underperformed to lose to the Giants & Broncos respectively, as contests though they were exciting games & this weekend should see some quality contests between the 8 teams left with a chance of a Super Bowl ring. We're kicking off with Saturday's games at New England & San Francisco as we try to find an edge to help turn a nice profit.

(Workhorse Frank Gore will have been glad of last week's bye - his running has carried the 49ers offense in 2011)

The day's first game sees a classic offense versus defense matchup as the hugely exciting New Orleans Saints travel to take on the resilient San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. We're normally big fans of great defenses coming out on top of great offenses but we're pretty sweet on the Saints in this one especially now that the season seems to be being dominated by great quarterbacks & you could argue that Drew Brees is the best of the lot with the most yards & touchdown passes this year. The Saints were less than perfect against the Lions last week & trailed at the half but came through with a dominant 2nd half display to win 45-28, the 49ers don't have the offensive weapons of Detroit & it would be surprising if they could get anyway near their total.

 (Jimmy Graham just keeps getting it done & he can score again against San Francisco)

Led by Alex Smith at quarterback the 49ers ranked just 26th in total offense but 4th on defense & lost just  3 times, of course it did help that the were in the awful NFC West meaning 6 of their games were against the lowest of low grade opposition. To be blunt Smith really isn't a very good quarterback but the 49ers realised this & attempted to pass the ball less than anyone apart from the Broncos, that seemed to help Smith who threw just 5 interceptions & 17 touchdowns, instead the bulk of the work has been left to power running back Frank Gore. Gore was handed the ball over 280 times in the year & gained 1,211 yards with 8 TDs, he's an all-action back & willl cause New Orleans defense trouble who concede a very high average of 5 yards a rushing attempt. When they do pass it will be to Michael Crabtree & Vernon Davis, tight end Davis had 6 touchdowns on the year & looks the man to get another in this one at odds of 6/5 to score a TD at anytime he looks a good bet. Their defense is the real star & are particularly good at stopping the run, NaVorro Bowman has been freakishly effective with 143 combined tackles & the rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks. They'll have to be at their best to stop the Saints as they've been unstoppable, they have a pretty good run game but will happily abandon it if it's ineffective & relying on Brees is no bad thing, he'll connect on most passes as usual & will unlikely give up too many chances of an interception. Tight end Jimmy Graham came up good for us last week & can score again at odds of 4/6 to add to the 12 TDs he has for the season. The Saints defense could have some fun too as they blitz the second most in the league, it's the right thing to do here as Alex Smith is a weak link & we think even though they are away they can win this big & should be backed to win with -3.5 points on the handicap at 10/11.

(The Broncos v Patriots - otherwise known as the Tim Tebow show)

In Foxborough the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos & Tebowmania is running wild with everybody talking & writing about him after the Broncos surprise win against the highly fancied Steelers. We'll have our say about Tim Tebow's performnce straight away, he ran the option well as usual but wasn't spectaclar in the running game & we feel that some of his throwing in terms of distance acuracy was particularly poor, throwing passes over heads or into the ground. He was fortunate to come up against a Steelers secondary that didn't appear even remotely capable against the deep threat meaning when he did throw reasonable deep pases the were made & drew big rewards. Tim may as well stick to the same plan here as the Patriots secondary sucks & Demaryius Thomas will be hoping so as he came up with a monstrous 204 receiving yards from just 4 receptions. The Broncos real strength is in their running game which is helpful as Tebow really isn't accurate enough to be relied on, but New England aren't bad against the run & give up a reasonable 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Willis McGahee & Tim Tebow will need to find ways to keep the running game going to keep the ball on their offense & away from the Patriots & top passer Tom Brady.

(Wes Welker is the league's leading receiver yet available at 15/2 to score 1st - get on!)

Brady was awesome as usual during the season, completing nearly 66% of passes & hitting receivers for 39 touchdowns, when he's in the zone it looks impossible for him to throw a bad pass & he has great chemistry with his receivers. The tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski along with wide receiver Wes Welker are Brady's favourite targets & the league leading Welker looks a great price to score first at 15/2, he had the most receiving yards in the league & caught 22 more passes than his nearest challenger - he's a lethal weapon & will be looked to here. The Patriots can run the ball too & although BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get most carries we love to see tiny Danny Woodhead running the ball against guys twice his size, he makes the most of being small to get through gaps & even gets his share of passes. New England hve developed a bad habit of falling behind (by sizeable margins) but then coming back supremely strongly, with the number one seed giving them a bye last week coach Bill Belichick will have tried to solve that problem, the Broncos may not have the offensive capability to take advantage anyway. Last week will have been physically & emotionally draining for the Broncos & we expect New England to dominate from start to finish, back the Patriots to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 30/100 for a real 'like buying money' bet.

Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat San Francisco 49ers with -3.5 points at 10/11 (general)
Vernon Davis to score a Touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Skybet)
Jimmy Graham to score a Touchdown at anytime  at 4/6 (general)

New England to beat Denver Broncos half time/full at 3/10 (Boylesports, Coral & William Hill)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (Paddy Power)

NFL Week 16 - Christmas can come early for strong home teams

It's the 2nd last round of games in the NFL regular season & we've got our preview & best bets for this group of games as usual, we were let down by the Titans last Sunday but the New England Patriots did us proud by taking apart the Broncos & Tim Tebow, that's where we're starting this week with the Christmas Eve games.

 (Big man Vince Wilfork will be coming after the Dolphins on nearly every play)

The Miami Dolphins are hugely improved after losing their first 7 games & in general looking useless at the same time, they've won 5 out of 7 since then but those wins have come agaainst some pretty ordinary outfits including the sliding Buffalo Bills twice, they'll find things a whole lot tougher against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have lost just 3 times this year & have won their last 6 putting up large point totals, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league with an atrocious secondary that they will want to upgrade in the off-season but the offense is doing more than enough to get the job done. 'Mr Perfect' Tom Brady is just about on course to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record & will be looking to put up big numbers against the Dolphins' 25th ranked pass defense, as usual he'll target his tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez as well as top receiver Wes Welker, we'd have thought they'll be putting up over 30 points in this one. The Dolphins have done extremely well in terms of points conceded but did let the Bills score 23 last week & the Eagles 26 the week before, their schedule has been fairly easy all year & although they've improved we've still been unimpressed especially on the offense other than the rejuvenated Reggie Bush at running back. Matt Moore never managed to establish himself at Carolina & they're now showing what they can do on offense with outstanding rookie Cam Newton as passer, he'll struggle to exploit the Patriots poor pass defense, he has an outstanding receiver in Brandon Marshall but very little else of note in the receiving corps. The Dolphins have only scored more than 30 points 3 times this year & for that reason we're happy to take the Patriots with a -9.5 point handicap, that's just a touchdown & a field goal the Patriots need to win by & they're pretty formidable here in Foxborough.

(The No.1 ranked Steelers defense can ensure this is a low scoring encounter)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens over who will be top dog in the AFC North & they'll be pleased to be up against just about the league's worst team in the St. Louis Rams this week as they aim to win out. The key to this game is that Pittsburgh are likely to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger now until the playoffs as he's played large parts of the season with various injuries & the won't want to aggravate his current high ankle sprain any more, that means the Steelers wil likely run the ball much more often than usual & the clock will continue to run meaning less scoring opportunities. 3 of the Steelers last 4 games have had 23 or less points in them, the Rams have had only 2 of their last 7 games go over 40 points as they tend to struggle to put up any points at all & it won't be any easier against the league's best defense. Basically this game looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring of the year & the points line being set at 37.5 is too high & under should be backed.

 (Cedric Benson can gain some yards on the ground for the Bengals)

Finally the Arizona Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bengals & their dream rookie receiver/quarterback partnership of A.J. Green & Andy Dalton but even though the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 they won't have it their own way here in Ohio. 4 of those wins for the Cardinals were at home & one was against the dreadful Rams & the other came against the underperforming Eagles, they are pretty solid defensively but haven't scored more than 28 points all season & that was in the 1st game. The Bengals aren't particularly high scorers either but have done the business in every game they'd have been expected to leading to them holding an 8 & 6 record even though they are in a division with the Steelers & Ravens. The Bengals are also good at defending the run & that's where the Cardinals' offensive strength lies with Beanie Wells tending to rush hard & often, if the Bengals can take that away then there's little to worry about with their QB Skelton even though he has Larry 'Inspector Gadget Arms' Fitzgerald to pass to. At home the advantage definitely lies with the Bengals & they can win this at reasonable odds of 1/2 with Skybet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -9.5 points at 10/11 (general)
St.Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers to be under 37.5 Total Points at 10/11 (general)
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Arizona Cardinals at 1/2 (Skybet)

NFL Week 15 - Time's up for Tebow

Just 3 games left before the playoffs & the cream has risen to the top in just about every division, there's still plenty to play for & some big gamesin the coming weeks, we've got this round covered & hope to improve on a sorry bunch of picks last week. We went for under 38.5 total points in both the Texans v Bengals & 49ers v Cardinals games only for there to be 39 & 40 points in each respective game, that's frustrating but we can bounce back with some big winners this week & we think we've got some ace ones.

It's official, the Indianapolis Colts are the worst team in the league by a mile, they've lost all 13 games so far & have conceded the most points in the league to leave them with a league worst points difference (between what they've scored v opponents) of -198, without Peyton Manning they are dire so it makes little sense why the very decent Tennessee Titans are only 1 touchdown favourites to beat them. The Colts have been beaten by at least 7 points in their last 8 games & have only covered that spread in 2 games all season, in weeks 3 & 5, the Titans beat them 27-10 in the reverse fixture & have built up a respectable 7&6 record - it's not spectacular but it's light years ahead of Indianapolis.

(Chris Jonson can pay back a little bit of his $53m contract by scoring first against the Colts)

The Titans defense ranks 6th best in points conceded per game & their signing of Matt Hasselbeck from the Seahawks has worked out very nicely with him playing some quality football, unfortunately he damaged his hamstring in last week's game against the Saints & is doubtful here meaning that rookie Jake Locker may well be called upon. Obviously replacing your quarterback isn't ideal but Locker was the 8th pick overall in this year's draft & before his somewhat disappointing senior season in college was being predicted as a 1st overall pick so he has talent, he's seen a little action this year & already thrown 3 touchdowns & importantly no interceptions, his completion rate isn't great but if he doesn't give turnovers he's doing fine. The Titans should have the players to get the yards they need on the ground anyway with the highest earning running back in the league Chris Johnson looking to get some huge yards against the NFL's 3rd worst rushing defense. There's no doubt Johnson has been disappointing this year & he was poor against New Orleans last week but in the two games before he ran for 190 & 153 yards against the Buccaneers & Bills, they're bad defending the run & it seems he likes to bully these poorer sides, we think at 7/2 Johnson is a decent price to score the first TD. The Colts have problems all over the place, they rank 30th in sacks made, last in interceptions made, don't score points & now they've benched the season's starting QB Curtis Painter & are using perennial backup Dan Orlovsky as their passer, he's unlikely to see much joy in this one but he won't be as bad as their running game which is led by the incredibly ordinary Donald Brown. We can't see anything other than the Titans winning by at least a touchdown & should be backed with -6.5 points on the handicap, yes the Colts are at home & yes they will be desperate not to go to 0&14 but there's a reason they've lost every game so far - they are trash!

 (There won't be another miracle for Tim Tebow in this one against the Patriots)

Elsewhere the New England Patriots will have to overcome the divine inspiration that continues to guide the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos to victory in the most unlikely circumstances week after week but we think they can do it by scoring points & forcing the Broncos to use the passing game, which is where they will crumble. The Broncos have won their last 6 games even though they scored over 20 points in just 2 of them & have won their last 4 games after trailing in the last 2 minutes of the game, often Tebow & the whole offense has been dreadful in the 1st half of games but the defense has been good enough all year to keep things close enough for them to drag it out of the fire. The problem for Denver here is that they are dealing with a truly elite offense in the Patriots & if they don't start firing until late on New England will already be out of reach, the Broncos have the most rushing yards & 2nd least passing but the Pats' weakness is in their secondary against the pass & Tebow & his receivers won't be good enough to expose it. Tebow's only completing 48.5% of his passes this year & his receivers are pretty average, Eric Decker is respectable but they miss Brandon Lloyd who was traded to the Rams, that means even when they want to throw the targets aren't there & it'll prove costly here.

(The phenomenal Rob Gronkowski & the rest of the Patriot's passing game can find success at Mile High against the Broncos)

The Patriots have been on fire in the passing game having racked up 30+ points in 9 of their 13 games & Brady has found tight end Rob Gronkowski 16 times in the end zone, that's very nearly half of the 33 touchdowns Brady has thrown yet receiver Wes Welker is the league's receiving leader with 100 receptions & 1,339 yards. Brady can also go to other tight end Aaron Hernandez & deep threat Deion Branch, he also has league veteran Chad Ochocinco if he needs him & it all means that they put up points wherever they are. Brady will need to be wary of the great pass rushers the Broncos have but he has pretty good protection & has such a quick release of the ball he's only been sacked 22 times all season which is excellent for such a passing team.. They were burned for 170 rushing yards against the Redskins last week but that was their worst of the season & Brady will put up big enough numbers again for the Patriots to win by more than 7.5 points to bring up the handicap bet at 10/11.

Selections:
Tennessee Titans to beat Indianapolis Colts with -6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (general)
Chris Johnson to score first Touchdown at 7/2 (general) in Titans v Colts game
New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 10/11 (general)

Monday Night Football - Villa can limit Spurs at White Hart Lane

Monday Night Football's here & we've got Premier League football with Tottenham Hotspur hosting Aston Villa & NFL action as the Kansas City Chiefs face the New England Patriots in Foxborough, we've scoured the markets for the best bets available.

(Quality left back Stephen Warnock can help keep Tottenham's attackers in check)

Tottenham have been having a great season so far, only dropping points in the league once (drawing against the freakish performing Newcastle) since their losses against both Manchester teams in their first two games, they will want to win here to keep up their push for a Champions League spot. Aston Villa haven't done at all badly either, although expectations & aspirations are lower, they've also lost just the twice - again to the juggernaut that is Man City & local rivals West Brom. Villa's problem has been too many draws with 6 in the campaign including 4 out of 5 in away games, Alex McLeish has really got his slight squad playing with a resolve that was lacking at times under Gerard Houllier's strange tenure last year. Spurs have been winning & playing nicely with Redknapp's decision to play a shadow squad in the Europa League matches looking smarter by the day, the international break came at just the wrong time & the hugely effective Rafael van der Vaart picked up yet another hamstring injury that puts him out of this one. Gareth Bale's starting to get his game going & is as dangerous a winger as anyone in the league, it's a pity that on the other wing the enigmatic & often ineffectual Aaron Lennon is playing, Villa's wing backs are one of the strong points of their team anyway with Warnock & Hutton, the Scot will be keen on having a good game against his former team. Therefore Spurs will look to the inventive Luka Modric to unlock the Villa defence, Villa will be prepared for that & will pack the midfield, even if they get the ball through to the strikers Jermaine Defoe hasn't always convinced & although Adebayor's all round game has been nice he hasn't scored since 18th September. We aren't keen on Villa scoring, although we're big Darren Bent fans, but they might be able to stop Spurs as well & we're going for no goalscorer at a huge 16/1 - that bet also has you covered if the only goals are own goals which is just as well with Richard Dunne on the pitch!

(Dwayne Bowe can score against the Patriots by outjumping their cornerbacks)

The New England Patriots got a deserved win for their attacking play against the Jets last Monday night & should prove way too strong for the Kansas City Chiefs here but the -15 point handicap is just a little big to be bet & we've instead looked at the touchdown scorers market. The Chiefs really haven't scored enough touchdowns this year but Dwayne Bowe dominates their scoring with a very average 4 TDs on the year he's available at 6/5 to score at any time  & has to be bet with the Patriots very poor secondary. For a first touchdown scorer we have to look at the Patriots, tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski are big favourites for Tom Brady when aiming for the end zone but he'll want to get the ball to league leading receiver Wes Welker who was covered by Darrelle Revis last week & he can be bet at 7/1 to score the first touchdown & get a victory underway.

Selections:
No goalscorer at 16/1 (various) in the Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa game

Wes Welker to score 1st touchdown at 7/1 (Boylesports) in Kansas City Chiefs v New England Patriots game
Dwayne Bowe to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (general)