NFL Championship games - One step from the Super Bowl

A great season of football is just about winding up as the final four teams battle it out for a place in this year's Super Bowl & it means two great matchups with two of the best defenses up against some great offenses led by previous Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Tom Brady & the New England Patriots host the tough, grizzled Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game & the New York Giants have to travel across the country to come up against the NFC's best defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We've got both games previewed & some bets picked out in order to be able to enjoy it even more, as ever you can also follow us on Twitter by clicking the button above where we talk about sports in general & keep you informed of our blog updates.

(Our favourite Patriot little Danny Woodhead can help them sneak past the Ravens)

The AFC Championship is up first & sees two teams who make the playoffs pretty much perennially in the New England Patriots & Baltimore Ravens but the last time either got to the Super Bowl was in the 2007 season when the Patriots lost to the Giants, whereas Batimore have only made it once, in the 2000 season & they beat the Giants. This season the Patriots haven't lost since week 9 (again the Giants!) & have put up extraordinary point scoring performances, putting up 30+ points in 12 of 16 regular season games, they ran over Dever last week & have to be feeling confident. The Ravens also had a great regular season losing just one more than the Patriots as they went 12 & 4 & swept the tough AFC North, they managed to put away the Texans last week with a combination of great defense & Texans mistakes but they were less than impressive on offense, that could be a problem today as Brady always finds a way to score.

(Tight end Ed Dickson offers some value to score for the Ravens)

We've always made it clear that we don't rate Joe Flacco as a quarterback & last week did nothingto change our minds, admittedly he threw two TDs but did start off in awesome field position & only just got over 50% with his completion rate & just 176 passing yards, it wasagainst a very good Texans defense but better quarterbacks would've found ways to counter them. To be fair to Flacco he has only an average to good set of receivers with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith offering the deep threat whilst back Ray Rice gets passed to more than anyone else. They have improved this year at tight end with Ed Dickson coming to the fore but still don't match up to many other teams in production at the position & certainly not the Patriots with Gronkowski & Hernandez. Dickson offers a little value in Paddy Power's 'first to score a touchdown for their team market' at 7/1, he got 5 during the season & is a viable alternative to the all-action Ray Rice. The Ravens offensive strength lies in thir running game & Rice is outstanding but if they need to score quicly they'll haveto go the air & that's unlikely to be sucessful.

(Mr Dependable Wes Welker (no. 83) can get us first touchdown scorer money again)

This is a pretty good matchup for New England as they're dreadful at defending the pass but the Ravens can't pass & they've only lost at home once all year whilst the Ravens 4 defeats have all comeon the road. The Ravens are great all round on defense but are probably a bit better stopping the run than the pass, Lardarius Webb has been exceptional at cornerback recently but he'll have a size mismatch if he covers Welker this week & that could be crucial. Pretty much noone's been able to stop Tom Brady pasing this year & he'll once again look to hit his physically dominant tight ends & Welker, Chad Ochocinco might even get a pass or two thrown his way although Brady's targeted him sparingly so far. The Patriots areloking so confident right now & Brady's arm is on fire, with homefield advantage it looks like they'll overpower the Ravens right from the off & can be beating them at halftime & fulltim at odds of 4/6. It's a different matter whether the Patriots can achieve ultimate success down at Indianapolis but it looks a safe bet that their superior offense can at least get them to the big game. It again looks like the league's leading receiver Wes Welker is being underestimated, odds of 15/2 for him to score the first touchdown & should be taken - he can deliver just like last week.

(Are Tom Coughlin's red hot Giants on their way to Super Bowl rings?)

The NFC Championship game is priced up with both teams pretty near Evens with the San Francisco 49ers marginal favourites courtesy of being at home, hosting the New York Giants at Candlestick Park. Both sides upset the odds last week with the 49ers beating our Super Bowl fancies New Orleans in dramatic late fashion whilst the Giants travelled to Lambeau Field & monstered the Packers in their own stadium in a most impressive win. These sides met here earlier in the season with the 49ers winning 27-20 but that was the start of a little sticky path fo the Giants where they lost 4 in a row, they've well & truly bounced back & have played some dominant football in recent weeks. Eli Manning has started getting a little cocky & is playing well enough to back his mouth up, he has two truly great receivers in Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz & they are ably backed up by Mario Manningham  & rookie tight end Jake Ballard. Even the Giants' running game which ranked dead last in 32nd during the regular season has started to produce in the las few games with Bradshaw & Jacobs making the most of their size.

(The 49ers Vernon Davis is used to celebrating touchdowns)

San Francisco took advantage of a largely soft schedule during the regular seeason but still came up with victories over Pittsburgh, Detroit & the Giants whe they did face better opposition, they rarely scored too heavily (over 30 points just 3 times) but were superb on defense, particularly in the red zone - making opponents settle for field goals & not allowing them to run the ball with any effectiveness. That goes partly down to excellent drafting with their rookie linebacker Aldon Smith looking like one of the league's outright outstanding defenders, he had 14 regular season sacks & is lightning fast & strong as an ox. We can't say we've ever been sold on Alex Smith at quarterback, he's had plenty of chances before this season but never taken them, he is however playing his best footbal right now & has been a model of consistecy & efficiency throwing just 5 interceptions all year with 20 TDs. Smith near enough passes exclusively to Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree, Davis had a monster game last week & can take advantage of the weak Giants secondary this week, he's Evens to get a touchdown at anytime with Skybet.

 (Victor Cruz can catch & run in this one just like he's been doing all season)

The 49ers season has been based on great defense & Frank Gore's powerful runs but they've moved a little away from that in the past two games as they allowed the league's worst scorers, St. Louis, to get 27 points in a meaningful game & conceded 32 to an excellent Saints offense last week, that's hardly terrible news but those were the two highest point totals they conceded all year & it's a trend they can't afford to continue. The Giants have really started to perform when it matters, the hosted the Falcons in their first playoff game this year & held them to just two points & were supremely impressive against Green Bay, those were both better offenses than the 49ers & with everything starting to click we have to side with New York & Eli to do the business & clinch the NFC Championship at 6/5. In the first touchdown scorer market the value lies going with the Giants' Victor Cruz at 10/1, he had 9 TDs in the regular season & a massive 1,536 receiving yards, he's their number one & should be shorter than that.

Selections:
New England Patriots to be beating Baltimore Ravens at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (various)
Ed Dickson to score 1st Ravens touchdown at 7/1 (Paddy Power)

New York Giants to beat San Francisco at 6/5 (Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Victor Cruz  to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet)
Vernon Davis to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet)