Super Bowl XLVII - Super San Francisco can batter Baltimore

This year's excellent NFL season comes to a head with an intriguing & exciting match-up between two teams coached by the Harbaugh brothers as John's Baltimore Ravens represent the AFC & Jim's San Francisco 49ers come in as NFC champions. Both teams have plenty going for them as you would expect for sides that have reached this stage, we're taking a look at the strengths & weaknesses of both teams as we seek out the value from the mass of betting markets available.

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Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

(The 49ers Colin Kaepernick aims to keep his dream story going in the Super Bowl)

The Ravens have come through an incredibly tough post-season schedule by winning road games against the Super Bowl favourites at the time Denver Broncos then New England Patriots & that entitles them to respect as on paper this is just as tough but no more so than those games at Mile High  Foxboro. Their regular season form was less impressive with not an overly tough schedule, they lost only two of their first 11 but then limped home with just one win in 5 & have done well to rally as they looked all out of steam. The return of their inspirational, & somewhat controversial, linebacker & leader Ray Lewis for the playoffs has clearly given them a lift & having him & Terrell Suggs on the field has improved them defensively. It has however been the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco that has most impressed with him making great decisions all though the playoffs with 8 touchdowns thrown & zero interceptions. We're not big Flacco fans here as we're unsure he does enough considering the receiver talent he has to aim for but he's been great in recent games with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith the beneficiaries with touchdowns & receptions.

Running back Ray Rice was as consistent as ever this year but with Flacco's recent play & the emergence of Bernard Pierce as a backup he's maybe not quite as key as he has been in previous seasons & that's maybe for the best as the 49ers are notoriously tough to run against & opposition teams gained just 94.2 yards per game on the ground against them on average. The 49ers are rock solid defensively & have been for some time now but this season with the addition of Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, after Alex Smith missed out a couple of games with injury, they've become an exciting offensive force. Kaepernick has added in the best qualities that many of the college quarterbacks coming into the NFL have with his ability to take off & make plays with his feet rather than just sit in the pocket & pass.

(Ray Lewis's 16 year reign of defensive terror comes to an end this Sunday)

Kaepernick is hardly a slouch though when it comes to passing with his 8.3 yards per completion being a league high for a passer with more than 50 attempts, it's his running ability & the all round running threat of the team that sets up those big passing plays. Michael Crabtree is the main man at receiver for the 49ers & he's been great in the playoffs whilst Vernon Davis eventually came to life in last week's win against the Falcons with 5 receptions, 106 yards & a touchdown. We love Vernon here at Like Buying Money & would love to see him with a big game although his odds for scoring are a little too short for us, Frank Gore looks a better alternative & odds of 7/1 for him to get the first touchdown look big, he's scored consistently through the season & bagged 3 TDs over his last two games vs Green Bay & Atlanta. The 49ers don't have the receiver options that the Ravens do but with Baltimore not having a dominating cornerback they may get away with it & the veteran Randy Moss could pop up as he has done before in many a big game.

On defense the 49ers are impeccable, ranking 4th against the pass & run & conceding just 17.1 points per game during the regular season & there's no reason to think that high level of performance should drop here with NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis's all-action games being a key component of the league's best front 7. In the secondary San Francisco aren't quite so dominant but their pass ruch makes up for it making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find the space to pass effectively & Flacco hasn't necessarily got the evasiveness of someone like the Steelers' Ben Roethelisberger. The 49ers can stifle the Ravens with their defense, pound them with their running game & use the run plus Kaepernick's ability to take off to set up the big passing plays & this looks like proving one game too many for John Harbaugh's men.

The game takes place at the Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints, & the 49ers already have a victory here this season - that can help inspire them to a convincing victory over the Ravens who may have used up all of their post-season luck & performance with two big underdog victories already. Back the San Francisco 49ers to show why they are feared by every team & for them to cover a makeable -3.5 handicap spread at odds of 20/21.

(Linebacker Aldon Smith is a live outsider at 66/1 for the MVP award)

The Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) award is always a big betting heat & with the dominance of quarterbacks getting the prize it's no surprise to see Kaepernick & Flacco as the 1st & 2nd favourites at 6/4 & 3/1. As we feel the 49ers are going to win we have to go with Kaepernick as the award has only once not gone to a player on the winning team & that was 42 years ago but for a small wager it may be worth getting on young linebacker Aldon Smith at huge odds of 66/1 to spring a shock. Smith is a veritable 'sack monster' who gained 19.5 sacks in the regular season to sit behind only the incredible J.J. Watt & he got himself 5.5 in one game vs the Bears, he's been quiet on the sacks front in his last few games but we think he could come to life on the big stage & terrorise Joe Flacco if given the chance. Ray Lewis would be a sentimental choice (for some at least...) for the award in his final game after such an illustrious career but the odds available (12/1 at best & shorter in general) are very short for a player in his position.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with -3.5 points at 20/21 (William Hill & SportingBet)
Colin Kaepernick to win Super Bowl MVP award at 6/4 (William Hill)
Aldon Smith to win Super Bowl MVP award at 66/1 (SportingBet, Stan James & BetVictor)
Frank Gore to score first touchdown at 7/1 (Various)

NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

Super Bowl - Giants can Cruz to victory over Patriots

After a gruelling season that often looked like it might not get underway due to a labour dispute between the players & owners we're down to just two teams from 32 for the 2012 Super Bowl with the New England Patriots up against the New York Giants in a rematch from 2008. This promises to be a great game with both teams having potent pasing offenses with excellent quarterbacks & receivers, their strengths are somewhat similar & the deciding factor in the game could be outstanding individual performances, mistakes or clever coaching decisions. We're going to have an in depth look at both sides & try to come up with the key info to give an advantage when placing your bets on the game. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney where we talk about the NFL & other sports, either find us on Twitter or simply click the follow button at the top of the page.

(Tom Brady is searching for his 4th Super Bowl ring with the Patriots)

The New England Patriots really do walk their own path, whilst every other team seems to go for 6' 2" plus wide receivers they had the league leader with the 5' 9" Wes Welker & instead they've led the way with the use of tight ends with the physically dominating Rob Gronkowski & also Aaron Hernandez causing havoc in opposing defenses with their exceptional catching abilities. The big problem for them this week is that Gronkowski who has had a huge 20 touchdown catches in regular & postseason combined is listed as questionable for Sunday with an ankle injury sustained against the Ravens, if he was out it would be a big blow & even if he does play there have to be doubts whether he's fit enough to do the damage he usually does. They still have an outstanding passing game thanks to having an all-time great quarterback in Tom Brady & a great offensive line too that only allowed 32 sacks even though they attempted to pass over 600 times in the regular season & just 1 sack in their two playoff games against two of the best defenses around. It helps that Brady doesn't hold on to the ball for too long as they tend to go for medium gains in the passing game & get 1st downs rather than down the field passes for touchdowns. Sticking to that style will be important even if they are without Gronkowski as the Giants are keen to use their swarming pass rush to put pressure on Brady at all times, if he holds onto the ball for too long he will be punished.

(We think Victor Cruz can have a big game against New England's secondary)

The Giants pass game is quite different from New England's with Eli Manning having a strong arm & the receivers to get deep down the field & leap up to catch the ball even when covered with receivers, we've seen Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham do it all season & with success. Those receivers can also do it in the shorter passing game but the real danger they offer is down the field, Travis Beckum a tight end with just 5 regular season catches has stepped up with 7 postseason grabs & will be looked to again in short yardage situations when they go to pass. The Giants only allowed 28 sacks in the regular season & the Patriots are only average at getting pressure on the passer & that could be telling because if Eli gets time in the pocket & his receivers get downfield they will surely punish the Patriots' weak secondary that saw them give up a league worst 79 passing plays of 20+ yards. At 11/10 to score at anytime Victor Cruz looks a decent bet, he had 10 receptions last week against the 49ers top defense & although he didn't score he had 9 regular season touchdowns & over 1500 receiving yards even though he didn't begin the season as a regular starter. Eli Manning has improved as a passer since winning in the Super Bowl 4 years ago but it would still take a fool to say he's better than Brady, they have very different passing games & although the Patriots edge it here the better matchup today is definitely for the Giants.

(BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the Patriots chief rushing threat & looks overpriced to score a TD)

Both teams have pass first offenses but the running game could still prove significant & they won't want to become predictable & easier to defend by abandoning the run. The Patriots acually have a respectable rushing game & ranked 20th in the regular season even though their backs aren't exactly stars with BenJarvus Green-Ellis & little Danny Woodhead doing a steady job whilst rarely being spectacular. Woodhead is looked to in the passing game reasonably often but is rarely used when close to the goal line so Green-Ellis makes a great deal of appeal to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11, he has been handed the ball on no less than 28 occasions in the two playoff games & he managed to run one in against the Ravens last week to add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Giants rushers have been simply useless this year & whilst we've heard many people say they can come good here we just don't see it, they have two backs who've been respectable in the past but this year both Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs have failed to pick up enough yards to make an impact leaving the Giants ranked a league worst 32nd in total yards & average yards gained rushing. They don't do a bad job when close to the goal line often managing to power their way in in short yardage situations but they rarely get the big gains needed to alleviate pressure from the passing game. The Giants don't tend to abandon the rush though meaning New England will have to defend against it but we'd be surprised if they manage much over 100 yards rushing in the whole game although it could still be important in gaining the first downs they need.

(Jason Pierre-Paul & the rest of the Giants pass rush could be the key to winning here)

The area of the game that we see this really swinging to the Giants is on defense as we're big fans of their pass rush, especially the defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul & Justin Tuck, Pierre-Paul has been outstanding with 16.5 sacks & regularly forcing passers into making mistakes. Those two are backed up by Mathias Kiwanuka with the tackles Joseph & Canty getting a great push up front to create the sack opportunities. Further back Antrel Rolle continues to show he's a top safety & had a career high 96 tackles this year, he still doesn't get huge amounts of interceptions but has the athleticism to cover most receviers when they go deep, he may need to use that athleticism if the Patriots look to the pacy Deion Branch to cover for Gronkowski's injury problems. The Patriots are poor at the cornerback & safety positions, Devin McCourty might be their best in the secondary & he's had a lot of tackles but has dropped right down in picks with just 2 interceptions compared to 7 in his rookie year. They are better closer to the line & the huge Vince Wilfork continues to be a pleasure to watch using his size to dominate the opposing linemen & he even got his 1st two interceptions of his 8 year career this season & picking up 19 & 28 yards returning on the two occasions. Linebacker Rob Ninkovich has had his best season & seems to have the pace & power to cause problems all over the field for an opposing defense, the Patriots will try to get him through to Eli Manning on plenty of plays. Both teams rank high in interceptions with New England having 23 in the regular season & the Giants having 20, the Patriots' figure is probably increased due to them having such good leads at times & teams having to throw desperate passes, they still have to grab them out of the air though so it's impressive, we don't see them out-muscling the Giants' recivers to get those picks too easily though. In terms of special teams both have pretty decent units with their returners being steady & unlikely to cough the ball up too often, Devin Thomas for the Giants is probably the most dangerous with safe hands & some great raw pace. Kicking-wise Lawrence Tynes has proven that he has the coolness in big game situations for the Giants & Stephen Gostkowski looks to be highly competent with a decent range for the Patriots, you would have no qualms about sending either on to kick a last minute field goal to win the game.

(Eli Manning can celebrate a second Super Bowl victory over the Patriots)

This isn't an easy one to call especially with Tom Brady having won 3 out of the 4 Super Bowls he's been to with only the game against these opponents being unsuccessful, the Patriots were superior in the regular season with the Giants only just squeezing into the playoffs but New York look to be the side on a roll & we're with the Giants at odds of 13/10. The Patriots didn't manage one regular season win against a side that ended up with a winning record yet even with that weak schedule they still had the 2nd worst defense in the league in yards given up, they lost to the Giants earlier in the year & although they have a great offense Gronkowski is key to that & either him missing or not fully fit is a big blow. Eli Manning is exuding confidence whereas Brady didn't throw a touchdown last week for the first time in 36 games in the divisional playoff against the Ravens, the Giants will be feeling great after going to the NFC's number one & two seeded teams & beating them in their own back yards. Tom Coughlin's men have put behind their dodgy mid season run of form & look to have all of the momentum, if they can win the value lies with bcaking Victor Cruz to get the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award at 14/1, it most likely goes to the quarterback so a saver on Eli Manning at 2/1 with VictorBet isn't a bad option, we just feel Cruz has the explosive sort of plays to capture the voters imagination & he could really burn the Patriots.

Selections:
New York Giants to beat New England Patriots at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
New York Giants to win by 7-12 points at 13/2 (PaddyPower & Ladbrokes)
Victor Cruz to win MVP award at 14/1 (general)
Victor Cruz to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11 (Betfred)

NFL Championship games - One step from the Super Bowl

A great season of football is just about winding up as the final four teams battle it out for a place in this year's Super Bowl & it means two great matchups with two of the best defenses up against some great offenses led by previous Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Tom Brady & the New England Patriots host the tough, grizzled Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game & the New York Giants have to travel across the country to come up against the NFC's best defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We've got both games previewed & some bets picked out in order to be able to enjoy it even more, as ever you can also follow us on Twitter by clicking the button above where we talk about sports in general & keep you informed of our blog updates.

(Our favourite Patriot little Danny Woodhead can help them sneak past the Ravens)

The AFC Championship is up first & sees two teams who make the playoffs pretty much perennially in the New England Patriots & Baltimore Ravens but the last time either got to the Super Bowl was in the 2007 season when the Patriots lost to the Giants, whereas Batimore have only made it once, in the 2000 season & they beat the Giants. This season the Patriots haven't lost since week 9 (again the Giants!) & have put up extraordinary point scoring performances, putting up 30+ points in 12 of 16 regular season games, they ran over Dever last week & have to be feeling confident. The Ravens also had a great regular season losing just one more than the Patriots as they went 12 & 4 & swept the tough AFC North, they managed to put away the Texans last week with a combination of great defense & Texans mistakes but they were less than impressive on offense, that could be a problem today as Brady always finds a way to score.

(Tight end Ed Dickson offers some value to score for the Ravens)

We've always made it clear that we don't rate Joe Flacco as a quarterback & last week did nothingto change our minds, admittedly he threw two TDs but did start off in awesome field position & only just got over 50% with his completion rate & just 176 passing yards, it wasagainst a very good Texans defense but better quarterbacks would've found ways to counter them. To be fair to Flacco he has only an average to good set of receivers with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith offering the deep threat whilst back Ray Rice gets passed to more than anyone else. They have improved this year at tight end with Ed Dickson coming to the fore but still don't match up to many other teams in production at the position & certainly not the Patriots with Gronkowski & Hernandez. Dickson offers a little value in Paddy Power's 'first to score a touchdown for their team market' at 7/1, he got 5 during the season & is a viable alternative to the all-action Ray Rice. The Ravens offensive strength lies in thir running game & Rice is outstanding but if they need to score quicly they'll haveto go the air & that's unlikely to be sucessful.

(Mr Dependable Wes Welker (no. 83) can get us first touchdown scorer money again)

This is a pretty good matchup for New England as they're dreadful at defending the pass but the Ravens can't pass & they've only lost at home once all year whilst the Ravens 4 defeats have all comeon the road. The Ravens are great all round on defense but are probably a bit better stopping the run than the pass, Lardarius Webb has been exceptional at cornerback recently but he'll have a size mismatch if he covers Welker this week & that could be crucial. Pretty much noone's been able to stop Tom Brady pasing this year & he'll once again look to hit his physically dominant tight ends & Welker, Chad Ochocinco might even get a pass or two thrown his way although Brady's targeted him sparingly so far. The Patriots areloking so confident right now & Brady's arm is on fire, with homefield advantage it looks like they'll overpower the Ravens right from the off & can be beating them at halftime & fulltim at odds of 4/6. It's a different matter whether the Patriots can achieve ultimate success down at Indianapolis but it looks a safe bet that their superior offense can at least get them to the big game. It again looks like the league's leading receiver Wes Welker is being underestimated, odds of 15/2 for him to score the first touchdown & should be taken - he can deliver just like last week.

(Are Tom Coughlin's red hot Giants on their way to Super Bowl rings?)

The NFC Championship game is priced up with both teams pretty near Evens with the San Francisco 49ers marginal favourites courtesy of being at home, hosting the New York Giants at Candlestick Park. Both sides upset the odds last week with the 49ers beating our Super Bowl fancies New Orleans in dramatic late fashion whilst the Giants travelled to Lambeau Field & monstered the Packers in their own stadium in a most impressive win. These sides met here earlier in the season with the 49ers winning 27-20 but that was the start of a little sticky path fo the Giants where they lost 4 in a row, they've well & truly bounced back & have played some dominant football in recent weeks. Eli Manning has started getting a little cocky & is playing well enough to back his mouth up, he has two truly great receivers in Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz & they are ably backed up by Mario Manningham  & rookie tight end Jake Ballard. Even the Giants' running game which ranked dead last in 32nd during the regular season has started to produce in the las few games with Bradshaw & Jacobs making the most of their size.

(The 49ers Vernon Davis is used to celebrating touchdowns)

San Francisco took advantage of a largely soft schedule during the regular seeason but still came up with victories over Pittsburgh, Detroit & the Giants whe they did face better opposition, they rarely scored too heavily (over 30 points just 3 times) but were superb on defense, particularly in the red zone - making opponents settle for field goals & not allowing them to run the ball with any effectiveness. That goes partly down to excellent drafting with their rookie linebacker Aldon Smith looking like one of the league's outright outstanding defenders, he had 14 regular season sacks & is lightning fast & strong as an ox. We can't say we've ever been sold on Alex Smith at quarterback, he's had plenty of chances before this season but never taken them, he is however playing his best footbal right now & has been a model of consistecy & efficiency throwing just 5 interceptions all year with 20 TDs. Smith near enough passes exclusively to Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree, Davis had a monster game last week & can take advantage of the weak Giants secondary this week, he's Evens to get a touchdown at anytime with Skybet.

 (Victor Cruz can catch & run in this one just like he's been doing all season)

The 49ers season has been based on great defense & Frank Gore's powerful runs but they've moved a little away from that in the past two games as they allowed the league's worst scorers, St. Louis, to get 27 points in a meaningful game & conceded 32 to an excellent Saints offense last week, that's hardly terrible news but those were the two highest point totals they conceded all year & it's a trend they can't afford to continue. The Giants have really started to perform when it matters, the hosted the Falcons in their first playoff game this year & held them to just two points & were supremely impressive against Green Bay, those were both better offenses than the 49ers & with everything starting to click we have to side with New York & Eli to do the business & clinch the NFC Championship at 6/5. In the first touchdown scorer market the value lies going with the Giants' Victor Cruz at 10/1, he had 9 TDs in the regular season & a massive 1,536 receiving yards, he's their number one & should be shorter than that.

Selections:
New England Patriots to be beating Baltimore Ravens at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (various)
Ed Dickson to score 1st Ravens touchdown at 7/1 (Paddy Power)

New York Giants to beat San Francisco at 6/5 (Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Victor Cruz  to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet)
Vernon Davis to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet)