Super Bowl XLVII - Super San Francisco can batter Baltimore

This year's excellent NFL season comes to a head with an intriguing & exciting match-up between two teams coached by the Harbaugh brothers as John's Baltimore Ravens represent the AFC & Jim's San Francisco 49ers come in as NFC champions. Both teams have plenty going for them as you would expect for sides that have reached this stage, we're taking a look at the strengths & weaknesses of both teams as we seek out the value from the mass of betting markets available.

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Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

(The 49ers Colin Kaepernick aims to keep his dream story going in the Super Bowl)

The Ravens have come through an incredibly tough post-season schedule by winning road games against the Super Bowl favourites at the time Denver Broncos then New England Patriots & that entitles them to respect as on paper this is just as tough but no more so than those games at Mile High  Foxboro. Their regular season form was less impressive with not an overly tough schedule, they lost only two of their first 11 but then limped home with just one win in 5 & have done well to rally as they looked all out of steam. The return of their inspirational, & somewhat controversial, linebacker & leader Ray Lewis for the playoffs has clearly given them a lift & having him & Terrell Suggs on the field has improved them defensively. It has however been the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco that has most impressed with him making great decisions all though the playoffs with 8 touchdowns thrown & zero interceptions. We're not big Flacco fans here as we're unsure he does enough considering the receiver talent he has to aim for but he's been great in recent games with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith the beneficiaries with touchdowns & receptions.

Running back Ray Rice was as consistent as ever this year but with Flacco's recent play & the emergence of Bernard Pierce as a backup he's maybe not quite as key as he has been in previous seasons & that's maybe for the best as the 49ers are notoriously tough to run against & opposition teams gained just 94.2 yards per game on the ground against them on average. The 49ers are rock solid defensively & have been for some time now but this season with the addition of Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, after Alex Smith missed out a couple of games with injury, they've become an exciting offensive force. Kaepernick has added in the best qualities that many of the college quarterbacks coming into the NFL have with his ability to take off & make plays with his feet rather than just sit in the pocket & pass.

(Ray Lewis's 16 year reign of defensive terror comes to an end this Sunday)

Kaepernick is hardly a slouch though when it comes to passing with his 8.3 yards per completion being a league high for a passer with more than 50 attempts, it's his running ability & the all round running threat of the team that sets up those big passing plays. Michael Crabtree is the main man at receiver for the 49ers & he's been great in the playoffs whilst Vernon Davis eventually came to life in last week's win against the Falcons with 5 receptions, 106 yards & a touchdown. We love Vernon here at Like Buying Money & would love to see him with a big game although his odds for scoring are a little too short for us, Frank Gore looks a better alternative & odds of 7/1 for him to get the first touchdown look big, he's scored consistently through the season & bagged 3 TDs over his last two games vs Green Bay & Atlanta. The 49ers don't have the receiver options that the Ravens do but with Baltimore not having a dominating cornerback they may get away with it & the veteran Randy Moss could pop up as he has done before in many a big game.

On defense the 49ers are impeccable, ranking 4th against the pass & run & conceding just 17.1 points per game during the regular season & there's no reason to think that high level of performance should drop here with NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis's all-action games being a key component of the league's best front 7. In the secondary San Francisco aren't quite so dominant but their pass ruch makes up for it making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find the space to pass effectively & Flacco hasn't necessarily got the evasiveness of someone like the Steelers' Ben Roethelisberger. The 49ers can stifle the Ravens with their defense, pound them with their running game & use the run plus Kaepernick's ability to take off to set up the big passing plays & this looks like proving one game too many for John Harbaugh's men.

The game takes place at the Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints, & the 49ers already have a victory here this season - that can help inspire them to a convincing victory over the Ravens who may have used up all of their post-season luck & performance with two big underdog victories already. Back the San Francisco 49ers to show why they are feared by every team & for them to cover a makeable -3.5 handicap spread at odds of 20/21.

(Linebacker Aldon Smith is a live outsider at 66/1 for the MVP award)

The Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) award is always a big betting heat & with the dominance of quarterbacks getting the prize it's no surprise to see Kaepernick & Flacco as the 1st & 2nd favourites at 6/4 & 3/1. As we feel the 49ers are going to win we have to go with Kaepernick as the award has only once not gone to a player on the winning team & that was 42 years ago but for a small wager it may be worth getting on young linebacker Aldon Smith at huge odds of 66/1 to spring a shock. Smith is a veritable 'sack monster' who gained 19.5 sacks in the regular season to sit behind only the incredible J.J. Watt & he got himself 5.5 in one game vs the Bears, he's been quiet on the sacks front in his last few games but we think he could come to life on the big stage & terrorise Joe Flacco if given the chance. Ray Lewis would be a sentimental choice (for some at least...) for the award in his final game after such an illustrious career but the odds available (12/1 at best & shorter in general) are very short for a player in his position.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with -3.5 points at 20/21 (William Hill & SportingBet)
Colin Kaepernick to win Super Bowl MVP award at 6/4 (William Hill)
Aldon Smith to win Super Bowl MVP award at 66/1 (SportingBet, Stan James & BetVictor)
Frank Gore to score first touchdown at 7/1 (Various)

NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Divisional Round - Broncos to serve Ravens up a dish of Deja Vu

We're onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs & the two Saturday games are previewed here as Denver & San Francisco look to home field advantage & a rested squad whilst Baltimore & Green Bay look to carry the momentum of their wins last week. In last week's matches we were just middling, getting the Bengals @ Texans unders & Baltimore to win HT/FT fairly easily but having quarterback injury let us down in the other games (Christian Ponder & RGIII), hopefully injuries won't be as key in this week's games.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

These two sides meet again after facing off in week 15, in that game Denver basically humiliated Baltimore in their own stadium going up 34-3 in the 4th quarter before the Ravens responded with 10 consolation points late on - this will be even tougher as the Ravens try to overcome the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

(Broncos heart throb Eric Decker looks overpriced to haul in the first touchdown)

The Broncos now have outright favouritism for the Super Bowl with most firms & it's easy to see why as they've had a tremendous run winning their final 11 games, often impressively, after losing 3 of their first 5, admittedly to some very smart opponents. Peyton Manning has conclusively proved any doubters wrong, showing that he is fully recovered from the major surgery undertaken last year, now including the arm strength that understandably took a couple of games to get back. This is a side that got to the playoffs in 2011 (& won a game!) with Tim Tebow under centre - to have one of the very best quarterbacks of all time instead it now seems blindingly obvious that we should all have been backing Denver at the start of the season! The Broncos match up their outstanding quarterback play with some explosive defense that ranks 2nd overall in yards conceded per game & is outstanding against both the run & pass (ranking 3rd against each). They have great players through the defense with Champ Bailey one of the all time great cornerbacks, Von Miller is arguably the best defender in the league & Elvis Dumervil is a great defensive end, they look sure to be able to deal with anything the Ravens throw at them.

We were keen on the Ravens to beat Indianapolis last week but that was because the Colts were some way short of being as good as their win record suggested, this is a different proposition & it seems difficult to see how they'll keep pace with a team they were so outplayed by just a month ago. It looks like they will be prepared to throw some bombs downfield though if last week's game is anything to go by where Anquan Boldin gained 145 receiving yards, all coming in the 2nd half of the game, those deep passes are what Joe Flacco does best as he undeniably has a strong arm although he could look instead to the younger Torrey Smith this time. The Ravens' vaunted defense hasn't been as strong this year, with injuries & the ravages of age taking their toll, this looks likely to be legendary linebacker Ray Lewis's final game, he did well on comeback last week but may feel the effects of being out from week 6 onwards in this game. Ray Rice & young backup running back Bernard Pierce may be in the game plan to begin with but if the Ravens fall behind they'll be forced to pass & we can see Flacco getting sacked & throwing multiple interceptions as the Broncos force home a crushing win. Take Denver with -9 points to win this game, they beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore & can at least match that here. Looking at the touchdown scorers it looks like Broncos receiver Eric Decker is overpriced at 8/1 to get the first TD, he's their leading touchdown scorer with 13 & bagged himself 5 in the last 3 games so is red hot at the moment.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

This game is a rematch of these two teams first game of the season but takes place at the 49ers' Candlestick Park rather than Green Bay's famous Lambeau Field, these are arguably the NFC's top two teams so promises to be a great contest.

(Colin Kaepernick could be on the run for the 49ers)

The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game last time round only to end up just pipped to getting to the Super Bowl by the New York Giants, they'll be hoping for better this time around & need to start off by beating the Packers but they have somewhat controversially ditched quarterback Alex Smith for the still relatively untested Colin Kaepernick who now faces his biggest challenge by some margin. Kaepernick came into the side in week 10 after Smith was concussed & that means he's played just 7 full games yet faces off today against the Packers' turnover creating defense & has to keep pace with one of the league's best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. In the medium to long term we think bringing Kaepernick in is a good decision for the 49ers as he definitely has more scope than Alex Smith & has an added dimension of being a great athlete able to take off at any time with the ball, however in the short term it could prove costly here as this is a team that were championship contenders with Smith & his experience & decision making could have been crucial especially as they remain foremost a hard running, hard defense team.

Frank Gore is the 49ers star attacker & he put up his 6th 1,000+ rushing yards season this time around, the fact that 4 of his 5 lowest rushing games of the season coincided with the 4 losses San Francisco sustained shows just how important he is to the team. The Packers are only average at stopping the run & it's surely the 49ers best chance of success as even if Kaepernick is on his game he doesn't really have a lot of targets to pass to & seems to have somewhat zoned in exclusively on Michael Crabtree in recent weeks, top tight end Vernon Davis has gained just 6 receptions in their last 6 games. Of course the 49ers' greatest strength is on defense where they are a tour de force against the pass & run, ranking 2nd in points conceded per game (just 17.1), the leader is 2nd season linebacker Aldon Smith who came up with 19.5 sacks but the whole front 7 are outstanding & almost certainly the best in football at the moment.

The Packers' offensive line has been a weakness for some time & that 49er pressure is going to mean Rodgers will get repeatedly hit in the game, yet he's been used to that all season & yet still manages to post outstanding numbers, rarely panicking & throwing poor passes whilst under intense pressure by defenders. Rodgers seems to know when to take a sack too which remains a skill many quarterbacks still haven't acquired (Tony cough Romo cough!), he's got a great set of receivers to pass to & if he can escape the pressure he'll make some big plays in this one with so many 49ers on pass rush. Randall Cobb has really established himself in his 2nd season & got 80 receptions on the year, staying as Rodgers' most dependable receiver all season, Jordy Nelson is back & fit after missing a couple of games & James Jones will be looking to add to his huge haul of 14 TD receptions - they can definitely hurt San Fran.

(Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson can swing this in Green Bay's favour)

The Packers' key players in this one may however be on defense where they need to force Colin Kaepernick into making the mistakes that will finish the 49ers. A.J. Hawk & Clay Matthews will put him under pressure & they now have their outstanding veteran cornerback Charles Woodson back to make the plays in the backfield, he made a real difference against the Vikings last week & may prove crucial here. The 49ers were our pre-season pick to make the Super Bowl for the NFC but we're abandoning them here as we see Rodgers v Kaepernick as pivotal & we have to side with the proven quantity, take Green Bay to win as 13/10 outsiders.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat Baltimore Ravens with -9 points handicap at 10/11 (Coral, William Hill & SkyBet)
Eric Decker to score first touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
Green Bay Packers to beat San Francisco 49ers at 13/10 (Boylesports, William Hill & Pinnacle)

NFL Wildcard Weekend - Seahawks & Redskins can go points mad

Sunday's NFL wildcard playoff games are both competitive affairs & although the Colts @ Ravens should be good we're really looking forward to the late game between Seattle & Washington. We're previewing both & have three betting selections that can make viewing even more enjoyable.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Baltimore with a great back story - they finished with just two wins last last season meaning they got the first draft pick & they selected Andrew Luck & allowed legendary quarterback Peyton Manning to move on, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia & no one gave them a chance of making the playoffs - yet here they are after ending up with an impressive 11&5 record.

(Dennis Pitta could offer some value as a first touchdown scorer)

When you look back through the Colts' schedule you would have to accept it was one of the easiest of any side this year & that of course helped them gain their impressive amount of wins but the impact of Andrew Luck's quarterback play shouldn't be underestimated. Luck has come in & formed great partnerships instantly, particularly with veteran receiver Reggie Wayne who looked like he may be slowing last year yet has put up big numbers this time around. Importantly Luck has looked composed when the Colts have fallen behind, & they have done so often with their ordinary defense, that's meant he's been able to pull off late wins that have made the difference & they nearly always remain with a chance even if a couple of scores behind.

We aren't great fans of the Ravens here but they might have the right kind of game to show up Indianapolis's deficiencies here especially if they can get their classy running back Ray Rice in the game as often as possible. Baltimore's defense has been feted for years but hasn't been anywhere near so scary this year as key players have started to show their age (it often happens suddenly in the NFL) & injuries have impacted too, & just like the Colts they have a lot of wins this year against pretty ordinary teams. The Ravens have been relying on passer Joe Flacco too often for our liking as he remains inconsistent even though his strong arm means he's always a threat to every team in the league. Flacco has Torrey Smith as an excellent deep threat with his speed & size but when he gets closer to the end zone the tight end Dennis Pitta is a top target & he looks overpriced at 12/1 to score the first touchdown. Surely though the Ravens' coordinators will have noticed how the Colts' run defense isn't strong enough & we can see them handing the ball off to Ray Rice for the entire game as they look to move the ball down the field safely. The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games & must be lacking a little confidence, the perfect antidote is to rely on their best player & Rice can help them lead from start to finish, the Colts run will come to an end so take Baltimore to lead at half time & full time for improved odds of 4/6.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Two of the league's impressive rookie quarterbacks face off in this one as Robert Griffin III & the Redskins host Russell Wilson & the Seahawks, both teams finished off the regular season in great form & this has the potential to be explosive.

(Russell Wilson & the Seahawks have been scoring for fun in recent games)

RG III possesses a top threat as a runner as well as when passing & that's helped them rank as the top team in terms of rushing yards this season, he's put up over 800 rushing yards & their rookie running back Alfred Morris has 1,613. That running game will be key here as Seattle have a very good defense but is slightly more vulnerable to the run than pass, their star cornerback Brandon Browner should be fit after injury too, meaning easy passing yards won't be there for Washington. On defense the Redskins got better towards the end of the season but they still remain too easy to pass against & they ranked 30th in passing yards against, DeAngelo Hall is decent at cornerback but doesn't have too many other great players in the secondary to help him out.

Seattle's Russell Wilson wasn't given much of a chance to be a success by plenty of pundits, he's slightly short for an NFL quarterback but he has improved all season & he had passer ratings of 100+ in 7 of  his last 8 games & also showed he is a serious running threat when he scored 3 rushing TDs in week 15 against Buffalo. Wilson's receiver corps are a dependable if unexplosive set & there were only 2 occasions all season where a receiver had a 100 yard receiving game for them all season. We do hoever love their running back Marshawn Lynch & he followed up  dozen TDs in 2011 with 11 this time & a huge 5.0 average yard per rushing attempt, he'll pound away at the Redskins defense & set up the pass plays. On defense the Seahawks are statistically very god, ranking 6th against the pass & 10th against the run, it may however be boosted by how difficult it is for opposing defenses to operate in Seattle due to the noise.

Washington have the home field advantage here & that could prove a crucial factor as Seattle are clearly a better side when they have the rabid & incredibly noisy fans behind them at CentuyLink Field making it difficult for opposing offenses to hear their play calling. The Seahawks probably deserve favouritism as they've beaten some top sides already this year (Packers, Patriots & 49ers), it's a tough game to call either way though & instead we'll take it to go over 46 points, the Redskins scored the 4th most points of any side in the regular season & Seattle went wild in the last few weeks scoring 170 points total in their last 4, Washington have also only limited opponents to less than 20 points 3 times all season.

Selections:
Over 46 points in Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins game at 10/11 (General)
Baltimore Ravens to be beating Indianapolis Colts at half time & full time at 4/6 (Various)
Dennis Pitta to score first touchdown in Colts @ Ravens game at 12/1 (William Hill)

NFL Week 11 - Brutish Bengals won't bow down to Chiefs

There are some big games between bitter rivals this week in the NFL, not least Baltimore at Pittsburgh where the Steelers have to overcome being without quarterback 'Big Ben' Roethelisberger & also an intriguing game between the Colts & Patriots where star rookie Andrew Luck comes up against passing legend Tom Brady. We're concentrating on a couple of games with teams on the verge of a playoff push coming up against some of this season's real stugglers.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City come into this game with just one win from 9 games so far & although they showed improvement to hold out until overtime against the Steelers last week this looks a tough ask against the Bengals who bounced back after 4 successive losses to slam the New York Giants 31-13 last Sunday.

(The Bengals' A.J. Green is fast becoming a superstar wide receiver)

The Bengals possess the NFL's best young wide receiver in A.J.Green & him & quarterback Andy Dalton have a great understanding with them combining for at least one touchdown in their last 8 games including 3 touchdown catches of 50+ yards showing the deep threat the Bengals have. A.J. Green stretches the field which means that Andrew Hawkins & tight end Jermaine Gresham tend to find space in the middle of the field although the Bengals' running game hasn't been up to the same standard as their passing. BenJarvus Green-Ellis joined from the Patriots in thee summer & is a perfectly dependable running back in terms of keeping hold of the ball but he is hardly explosive & is averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season. They've been just average defensively this year ranking 19th on passing yards given up & 20th on rushing  given up too many points, a positive is how aggressive they've been & they've managed to sack opposing quarterbacks 27 times so far ranking joint 4th.

The Chiefs have been having a miserable season & are the perfect example to hold up when highlighting just how crucial the quarterback position is in the NFL with Matt Cassel & backup Brady Quinn combining to throw just 6 touchdowns to 15 interceptions so far as the Chiefs have limped sorrily along. Jamaal Charles has been smashing into opposition defenses after coming back from injury & the Chiefs rank 4th overall in rushing yards. he running game just hasn't been enough though to back up their weak passing & in both areas they struggle to get the ball into the end zone even when they do move it up the field & rank just 30th in points scored. On defense they've fared reasonably against the pass & we think their cornerback Brandon Flowers is a real talent but they've only come up with 15 sacks  rank 23rd against the run. Unlike some teams that can rank statistically poorly but manage to hold teams when they get close to the end zone the Chiefs  allow too many touchdowns & are given up 28.4 points a game which looks like trouble when facing what can be a powerful Cincinnati offense. The Bengals are only giving up 3.5 points on the handicap here & that looks an ace bet, especially when you consider they travelled to the Super Bowl champs last week & beat them by 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

This game is a NFC South divisional rematch from week one where the Buccaneers prevailed in a low scoring encounter, Tampa Bay are making a push for the playoffs with a 5&4 record so far whilst the Panthers are looking to rescue their season with just two wins, both coming against inconsistent opponents.

(Vincent Jackson has already become a firm favourite for Tampa Bay fans & can score in this one)

Carolina's big problem this year has been the eratic performances of their quarterback Cam Newton who picked up the offensive rookie of the year award last season. 'Super' Cam has thrown 10 picks to 8 touchdowns & he's coughed the ball up for 9 fumbles too & at times has looked moody & far from a team player, it's difficult to ascertain whether that's an accurate assessment but it is problematic as quarterbacks are most effective when taking a leadership position. The Panthers are averaging over 7 points less per game this year than last & have faded back more on offense than the slight improvement they've made on the defensive side of the ball. So much of the Panthers' offense rests on Cam's shoulders because he's also their leading rusher with Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams both having ordinary seasons at tailback. Carolina don't look to have any defensive stars but are performing better as a unit & have improved after giving up a league high 8.4 yards per pass in 2011, bringing that down to 7.2 yards in 2012.

Tampa Bay are a strange team in some respects as on defense they rank 1st against the run but that's because teams know they are so easy to pass against with a weak pass rush & they rank stone last giving up 321.3 yards through the air per game. Even though their defense is clearly weak the Bucs have got themselves a winning record because they have a few key players on offense playing exceptionally well with rookie running back Doug Martin stunning defenses with an average of 95.8 yards per game & he's bagged himself 8 touchdowns so far this year. Young passer Josh Freeman has looked a lot more solid this year after a very wobbly 2011 & that seems to be down to him staying in the pocket a bit more & playing more of a classic quarterback role, it's shown in his touchdowns to interceptions (18-5) compared to last year (22-29), he'll feel that he can hit his targets in this one against the average Carolina defense. Vincent Jackson has joined from San Diego & made an instant impact giving Freeman a big physical target to aim for along with the versatile Mike Williams & the highly dependable tight end Dallas Clark who came in from the Colts. They do struggle to put pressure on opposition quarterbacks & have given up too many points even though they'v been scoring well themselves, in the Bucs' last 5 games we've seen points totals of 48, 63, 53, 74 & 58 - it suggests we could be in for a high scoring one here especially if Cam Newton can take advantage with a little less pressure when passing. The total points line has been set at 47.5 by Betfred for this one & we can see it going way over that if both teams' defenses continue to leak yards & points. In terms of touchdown scorers Vincent Jackson has been going nicely with 6 this year & odds of 8/1 for him to grab the first one look value.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3.5 handicap at Evens (Various)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers to total more than 47.5 points at 10/11 (Betfred)
Vincent Jackson to score 1st Touchdown in Tampa Bay v Carolina game at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

Ravens at Eagles - Lots of Squawking & not much Scoring

We were disappointed midweek as the Bears v Packers game was a bit of a damp squib with both teams offensive lines seeming to be made of paper - that will be a feature to watch for the rest of the year because if hey can't protect their passers neither side can be considered for the Super Bowl. We're back this weekend with picks from three games including a potential defensive showcase as the Ravens travel to the Eagles & we've some touchdown scorer bets that seem a little overpriced with certain bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

When we started looking at this weekend's games we'd already pinpointed the Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles as potentially the lowest scoring game of the week as two scary defenses come up against each other so we were surprised to see the total points line set at a large 46.5 points. Last year the Eagles had just 6 games go over the 46 points set here & the Ravens had just 4 of their 18 games (inc playoffs) go over, so from 34 games played just 10 went over & it seems amazing the line is so high.

(Coach Andy Reid will look to stop the Ravens' offense - cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be key)

Baltimore got a load of points on the board against Cincinnati on Monday night but the Bengals defense didn't seem to be able to adapt after setting up to stop Ray Rice running & made it too easy for Joe Flacco to use his arm strength & find targets down the field, it will almost certainly not be that easy to do the same against the Eagles. Philadelphia have two ace defensive ends in Trent Cole & Jason Babin who will ensure the pass rush against Flacco is strong & if he does get the ball away their corner backs Nnamdi Asomugha & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are amongst the best around & should give receivers Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin problems. Philadelphia weren't at their best last week with Michael Vick throwing 4 interceptions & they're arguably coming up against the best defense in the league with the Ravens, they won't have to deal with the threat of Terrell Suggs in the pass rush but Baltimore still looked stifling without him.

We can see both teams looking to their star running backs in Ray Rice & LeSean McCoy as they try to avoid turnovers & that should mean that plenty of time runs off the clock, this could end up coming down to a field goal & the under 46.5 points must be backed - the price for this should be closer to 1/2 than 10/11.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints travel up to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Pathers with both teams having suffered losses when favourites to win last week. The Saints were relatively well fancied for a Super Bowl push this year & the 2009 season champions were handed a boost when their players suspended for their part in the 'Bountygate' scandal were cleared to play, Carolina meanwhile were fancied by no one even with their impressive young quarterback Cam Newton.

New Orleans will undoubtedly be disappointed to have lost to the Redskins last week especially as they are usually unbeatable at home but Washington are an outfit on the up with a good defense, an emerging talent at running back in Alfred Morris & an exceptional talent in rookie passer Robert Griffin III. The Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay was more worrying as the Buccaneers lost their last 10 games last year & were rarely even getting close to the opposition yet they limited the Panthers to just two scores (touchdown & field goal) as Carolina went down 16-10. The Panthers are just a bit too one-dimensional as just about everything falls on Cam Newton's shoulders, as well as passing for 4,051 yards last year he also added another 706 on the ground & if he doesn't play well they have little chance.

(Lance Moore should score at some point against a weak Panthers defense)

We feel the Saints are being a little underrated here considering that Drew Brees threw for 346 yards last week & the Panthers ranked just 28th against the pass in 2011, he's got every opportunity to pick them apart here & put huge numbers on the board & taking New Orleans with a -2.5 point handicap looks a very sound bet. A favourite target of Drew Brees' is Lance Moore & he looks a reasonable price at 8/5 to score anytime (8 TDs each of last two years) & 12/1 to score the first touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

We were pleased to see the San Diego Chargers get their season off to a good start with a win away at Oakland, that was a tough fixture & they'll find it considerably easier when they host the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers were certainly helped by some atrocious special teams play from the Raiders but they were pretty resolute defensively & Philip Rivers looked accurate & efficient after a wobbly 2011 season, it helps that he was so well protected & was sacked just once last week.

(Philip Rivers & Antonio Gates can combine to winning effect for the Chargers)

Both of these teams seem to have problems running the ball with the Titans' star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson being wildly inconsistent & again last week he was ridiculously unproductive on the ground with just 4 yards from 11 carries, he does offer a threat in the receiving game though & his ability to break monster runs can't be ignored. The Chargers are really struggling without Ryan Mathews (injury) & he looks set to miss this one again, they only managed 32 rushing yards last week but we feel they have the better quarterback & set of receivers so it shouldn't hurt them so much here. We like the Titans' rookie receiver Kendall Wright but he might need a few more games to be seen to full effect & Nate Washington is capable of making huge plays, they will however struggle until Kenny Britt gets back to fitness, he looks like playing here but could be eased back in. The Chargers will use back Ronnie Brown for plenty of short passes & have an ace tight end in Antonio Gates plus Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal all as dependable receivers.

We think the Chargers' defense will give young quarterback Jake Locker plenty to worry about with Donald Butler coming after him & Eric Weddle waiting in the backfield to mop up any misplaced passes. The Chargers should take advantage of this being a home fixture & overcome a -6.5 point handicap to win by a touchdown or more. Rivers' most likely target when he gets around the end zone is Antonio Gates & the Evens that he gets a touchdown with Skybet looks generous especially as he's 2/9 with Paddy Power!

Selections:
Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles to be under 46.5 points at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints to beat Carolina Panthers with -2.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Lance Moore to score first touchdown at 12/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 8/5 (Bet365) Saints v Panthers
San Diego Chargers to beat Tennessee Titans with a -6.5 point handicap (General)
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (SkyBet)

NFL Championship games - One step from the Super Bowl

A great season of football is just about winding up as the final four teams battle it out for a place in this year's Super Bowl & it means two great matchups with two of the best defenses up against some great offenses led by previous Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Tom Brady & the New England Patriots host the tough, grizzled Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game & the New York Giants have to travel across the country to come up against the NFC's best defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We've got both games previewed & some bets picked out in order to be able to enjoy it even more, as ever you can also follow us on Twitter by clicking the button above where we talk about sports in general & keep you informed of our blog updates.

(Our favourite Patriot little Danny Woodhead can help them sneak past the Ravens)

The AFC Championship is up first & sees two teams who make the playoffs pretty much perennially in the New England Patriots & Baltimore Ravens but the last time either got to the Super Bowl was in the 2007 season when the Patriots lost to the Giants, whereas Batimore have only made it once, in the 2000 season & they beat the Giants. This season the Patriots haven't lost since week 9 (again the Giants!) & have put up extraordinary point scoring performances, putting up 30+ points in 12 of 16 regular season games, they ran over Dever last week & have to be feeling confident. The Ravens also had a great regular season losing just one more than the Patriots as they went 12 & 4 & swept the tough AFC North, they managed to put away the Texans last week with a combination of great defense & Texans mistakes but they were less than impressive on offense, that could be a problem today as Brady always finds a way to score.

(Tight end Ed Dickson offers some value to score for the Ravens)

We've always made it clear that we don't rate Joe Flacco as a quarterback & last week did nothingto change our minds, admittedly he threw two TDs but did start off in awesome field position & only just got over 50% with his completion rate & just 176 passing yards, it wasagainst a very good Texans defense but better quarterbacks would've found ways to counter them. To be fair to Flacco he has only an average to good set of receivers with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith offering the deep threat whilst back Ray Rice gets passed to more than anyone else. They have improved this year at tight end with Ed Dickson coming to the fore but still don't match up to many other teams in production at the position & certainly not the Patriots with Gronkowski & Hernandez. Dickson offers a little value in Paddy Power's 'first to score a touchdown for their team market' at 7/1, he got 5 during the season & is a viable alternative to the all-action Ray Rice. The Ravens offensive strength lies in thir running game & Rice is outstanding but if they need to score quicly they'll haveto go the air & that's unlikely to be sucessful.

(Mr Dependable Wes Welker (no. 83) can get us first touchdown scorer money again)

This is a pretty good matchup for New England as they're dreadful at defending the pass but the Ravens can't pass & they've only lost at home once all year whilst the Ravens 4 defeats have all comeon the road. The Ravens are great all round on defense but are probably a bit better stopping the run than the pass, Lardarius Webb has been exceptional at cornerback recently but he'll have a size mismatch if he covers Welker this week & that could be crucial. Pretty much noone's been able to stop Tom Brady pasing this year & he'll once again look to hit his physically dominant tight ends & Welker, Chad Ochocinco might even get a pass or two thrown his way although Brady's targeted him sparingly so far. The Patriots areloking so confident right now & Brady's arm is on fire, with homefield advantage it looks like they'll overpower the Ravens right from the off & can be beating them at halftime & fulltim at odds of 4/6. It's a different matter whether the Patriots can achieve ultimate success down at Indianapolis but it looks a safe bet that their superior offense can at least get them to the big game. It again looks like the league's leading receiver Wes Welker is being underestimated, odds of 15/2 for him to score the first touchdown & should be taken - he can deliver just like last week.

(Are Tom Coughlin's red hot Giants on their way to Super Bowl rings?)

The NFC Championship game is priced up with both teams pretty near Evens with the San Francisco 49ers marginal favourites courtesy of being at home, hosting the New York Giants at Candlestick Park. Both sides upset the odds last week with the 49ers beating our Super Bowl fancies New Orleans in dramatic late fashion whilst the Giants travelled to Lambeau Field & monstered the Packers in their own stadium in a most impressive win. These sides met here earlier in the season with the 49ers winning 27-20 but that was the start of a little sticky path fo the Giants where they lost 4 in a row, they've well & truly bounced back & have played some dominant football in recent weeks. Eli Manning has started getting a little cocky & is playing well enough to back his mouth up, he has two truly great receivers in Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz & they are ably backed up by Mario Manningham  & rookie tight end Jake Ballard. Even the Giants' running game which ranked dead last in 32nd during the regular season has started to produce in the las few games with Bradshaw & Jacobs making the most of their size.

(The 49ers Vernon Davis is used to celebrating touchdowns)

San Francisco took advantage of a largely soft schedule during the regular seeason but still came up with victories over Pittsburgh, Detroit & the Giants whe they did face better opposition, they rarely scored too heavily (over 30 points just 3 times) but were superb on defense, particularly in the red zone - making opponents settle for field goals & not allowing them to run the ball with any effectiveness. That goes partly down to excellent drafting with their rookie linebacker Aldon Smith looking like one of the league's outright outstanding defenders, he had 14 regular season sacks & is lightning fast & strong as an ox. We can't say we've ever been sold on Alex Smith at quarterback, he's had plenty of chances before this season but never taken them, he is however playing his best footbal right now & has been a model of consistecy & efficiency throwing just 5 interceptions all year with 20 TDs. Smith near enough passes exclusively to Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree, Davis had a monster game last week & can take advantage of the weak Giants secondary this week, he's Evens to get a touchdown at anytime with Skybet.

 (Victor Cruz can catch & run in this one just like he's been doing all season)

The 49ers season has been based on great defense & Frank Gore's powerful runs but they've moved a little away from that in the past two games as they allowed the league's worst scorers, St. Louis, to get 27 points in a meaningful game & conceded 32 to an excellent Saints offense last week, that's hardly terrible news but those were the two highest point totals they conceded all year & it's a trend they can't afford to continue. The Giants have really started to perform when it matters, the hosted the Falcons in their first playoff game this year & held them to just two points & were supremely impressive against Green Bay, those were both better offenses than the 49ers & with everything starting to click we have to side with New York & Eli to do the business & clinch the NFC Championship at 6/5. In the first touchdown scorer market the value lies going with the Giants' Victor Cruz at 10/1, he had 9 TDs in the regular season & a massive 1,536 receiving yards, he's their number one & should be shorter than that.

Selections:
New England Patriots to be beating Baltimore Ravens at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (various)
Ed Dickson to score 1st Ravens touchdown at 7/1 (Paddy Power)

New York Giants to beat San Francisco at 6/5 (Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Victor Cruz  to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet)
Vernon Davis to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet)

Ravens to suffer clipped wings at hands of Texans

Last night's NFL playoff games saw some good tipping for us with 4 out of 5 bets up including Wes Welker scoring the first touchdown in the Broncos v Patriots game at a big price of 15/2, we're trying to follow up in tonight's games that include reigning champions the Green Bay Packers taking on the New York Giants.

(The defenses will be key & the Ravens' D is as strong as it gets)

In Sunday's first game the Houston Texans travel to face off against the Baltimore Ravens in a game where both sides have very similar strengths as they are both best in the running game & their excellent defenses. The Texans defense improved from being statistically th 2nd worst in the league last year to 2nd best this year & their signed this season defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips deserves enormous credit as well as the new talent they brought in, we mentioned J.J. Watts last week as a favourite of ours & the rookie defensive end came up with a great performance as they beat Cincinnati in a hugely professional display. Watts will look to get after Ravens passer Joe Flacco at every opportunity & rightly so, as far as we're concerned the Ravens succeed in spite of the man under centre rather than because of him. Flacco is distinctly average & it's hard to see Baltimore wining Super Bowls with him, it's a pity as they have a top running back in Ray Rice & legendary defenders in Ray Lewis, Ed Reed & Terrell Suggs. Flacco isn't helped by the lack of depth they have in receivers as they look primarily to Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith, that will help the Texans as they'll go to man coverage to crowd those two out of the game. The key to the Ravens offense will as usual be their 5"8 rusher Ray Rice, he's quick & extremely elusive, getting big plays to the outside & right through the middle, Rice is great but maybe not quite so great as the Texans' main man.

(Power, pace & plenty of moves - Arian Foster is the complete back)

The Texans' running back Arian Foster seems to get better & better, he had a few injury problems at the start of the season but once he got into his stride was unstoppable, ending up with 10 TDs on the ground & 2 receiving scores. Foster's a lot bigger than Rice at 6"1 but he's still elusive as he has some great moves & excellent vision, he is thriving as he knows their success rests largely on his shoulders now they havea 3rd choice quarterback thanks to unfortunate luck with injuries. It is almost inevitable that Foster will score at  some point & Ladbrokes offer of 4/6 is generous - take it. Having T.J. Yates at centre isn't ideal but he coped very well last week & their playbook tends not to rely on him pasing to much anyway, they ran the ball more than anyone apart from the Broncos in the regular season. Not passing means that th Ravens will struggle to creae the turnovers that they are so good at usually & when the Texans do go to th air they have one of the premier receivers around in Andre Johnson, if he has the ball he won't be coughing it up with fumbles. An extra bonus for Houston has been the emergence of secondary running back Ben Tate & his good performances ensure that Foster doesn't get worn out from aways running the ball, he's better than the Ravens backup Ricky Williams & could be a factor. The Ravens cearly hold an advantage, they are at home & rested last week & the colder conditions should suit them slightly better but these are closely matched teams. Although Baltimore won 29-14 in their regular season meeting that game was very close until the 4th quarter & Arian Foster's season hdn't quite got going at that point, the ods available mean that we're happy to take the Ravens on & instead back Houston for the upset at odds of 3/1.

(Eli Manning is still in the hunt for his 2nd Super Bowl)

The New York Giants hae to go to Lambeau Field & face the formidable Green Bay Packers after their demolition of the Atlanta Falcons last week, this won't be so easy & we can't imagine the Packers scoring will be limited to just a safety. If the Giants could continue to run the ball like last week it would bode well but that was an anomaly as they ranked dead last in the rushing game in the regular season, they'll continue to go to Eli Manning who has been deadly down the back stretch with powerful & accurate throws to his receivers. Manning will need to be accurate as this Green Bay defense is built for interceptions & takeaways, they ranked last in passing yards conceded but had 8 more interceptions than anyone else, averaging near enough two picks a game. The stats ranking them last are slightly miseading as teams were having to go to the air as they were left trailing by the scary Packer offense, clearly the Packers secondary is not elite but it isn't dreadful either.

(We're hoping to see Jermichael Finley (no.88) making the Lambeau Leap)

When they met earlier in the year, at New York, there were only 3 points to separate them as Green Bay prevailed, that implies another close game but overall the Packers are more convincing having lost just once all year & quarterback Aaron Rodgers has now had 3 weeks rest after they played backup Matt Flynn in the last regular season game. Rodgers choice of receivers to pass to is amazing & he will almost certainly be able to burn the rubbish Giants secondary by going to any of Donald Driver, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson & the returning Greg Jennings. Finley looks likely to be able to exploit the Giants in the short to medium game & will look to create mismatches aginst linebackers, he's an awesome 6/5 to score at anytime with SkyBet, he can also be backed at 10/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The Giants do have weapons & receivers Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz can have good games, they'll need their defense to be firing on all cylinders to stand a chance & Jason Pierre-Paul will be doing his best, he's a star but it will likely be a long day for him & the rest of the defense unless the running game gets going for the Giants & they can manage the clock. At 30/100 the Packers are probably a little too short but backing them to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 is reasonable & looks the way to go.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Baltimore Ravens at 3/1 (Ladbrokes & Victor Chandler)
Arian Foster to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Green Bay Packers to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Jermichael Finley to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (SkyBet) & to score 1st TD at 10/1 (various)

Lions can celebrate Thanksgiving by feasting on Packers defense

It's Thanksgiving in the States & that means that we have three NFL games this Thursday to start week 12 that has every team in action now they've all had their bye weeks. The Thursday night games look pretty tasty with the league leading Green Bay Packers & San Francisco 49ers both in action hoping to keep up the pace in the NFC. We had 4 out of 5 winning bets on Sunday including Marion Barber to score the first touchdown in the Bears game at odds of 10/1, we're looking to keep pounding the bookmakers with our best bets here.

 (Awesome Aaron Rodgers may meet his match against the Detroit Lions pass rush)

There's no doubt about it, the Green Bay Packers are the most exciting team in football right now having gone unbeaten through the first 10 games & having posted 42 points more than any other team, they also rank 3rd worst in terms of yards given up on defense per game meaning there've been plenty of high scoring encounters, they now take on the 7&3 Detroit Lions who rank 3rd in total points (54 behind Green Bay) & that porous defense could lead to their first loss here. The Lions have been attempting over 40 passes a game & Matt Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns to 8 inreceptions, he has the league's best receiver to throw to in Calvin Johnson & he will want to take advantage of the Packers who've conceded 18 passing touchdowns, at 7/1 he looks a nice price to get the first touchdown. The Packers defense is certainly explosive as they lead the league with 19 interceptions but that is partly due to teams having to throw hopeful passes against them when trailing & they've let 46 passing plays of 20+ yards - it all points to a big day for Stafford & Johnson.

The Lions have been pretty solid defensively ranking 9th best in yards allowed plus have been able to make plenty of plays with 15 interceptions, 27 sacks & 9 forced fumbles (recovering 8 of those 9), they will need to be on top form against the Packers Aaron Rodgers because he's been exceptional all season with an insanely high passer rating of 130.7 (the NFL record season sits at 121.1). Fortunately their strength is against the pass, ranking 5th in yards allowed, they have the ability to get pressure on any quarterback which is key to having a chance at stopping Rodgers & Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch & Ndamukong Suh will all be hunting him down in this one. In the Lions secondary cornerback Chris Houston has stepped his game up with 4 picks this year & has returned two for touchdowns, Rodgers may have thrown just 3 interceptions in the 10 games so far but he'll be made to hurry more in this game & if he gets too ambitious the Lions will be waiting to pounce. It's fair that the Packers are favourites for this one but their odds seem a little skinny as they are away in one of the loudest venues in the league & that will make it dificult to execute plays & the Lions can get to the quarterback, Rodgers has been sacked 23 times already, at odds of 5/2 the Detroit Lions are the value pick to end the Packers unbeaten run.

(The San Francisco 49ers defense plus Frank Gore's running game can punish the Ravens)

The San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Baltimore Ravens who have won all of their home games so far but may not keep that going in this one against San Francisco who are 9&1 on the year. Other than having played the Steelers & Texans, Baltimore seem to have had one of the softest schedules available, ok they beat Pittsburgh twice which is very impressive but those big rivalry games can be more passion than great football & they've lost to very ordinary (at best) teams in Seattle, Tennessee & Jacksonville. We'vbe mentioned before that we're not Joe Flacco fans & that hasn't changed, he'll struggle against a top defense that only rank averagely in passing yards given up because teams abandon the run against them. That's a problem for the Ravens as when Flacco has one of his regular trash games they can normally go to the hugely reliable & basically excellent running back Ray Rice but here against the 49ers huge, dominant run defense that isn't desirable. On the 49ers offense quarterback Alex Smith has been a model of efficiency with 64% completion & just 3 interceptions, his favourite target Vernon Davis has 5 touchdowns already & Michael Crabtree has performed well too but their real strength is running the ball & Frank Gore can again prove difficult to stop, he's already had 870 rushing yards & is a real bull of a player. This is a game between two very good defenses & bearing that in mind it looks sensible to take the 49ers receiving +3.5 points on the handicap in a tight one where field goals could be important.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers at 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
Calvin Johnson to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 in Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers game (Boylesports & William Hill)
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with +3.5 points on the handicap at 5/6 (various)