NFL Wildcard Weekend - Seahawks & Redskins can go points mad

Sunday's NFL wildcard playoff games are both competitive affairs & although the Colts @ Ravens should be good we're really looking forward to the late game between Seattle & Washington. We're previewing both & have three betting selections that can make viewing even more enjoyable.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Baltimore with a great back story - they finished with just two wins last last season meaning they got the first draft pick & they selected Andrew Luck & allowed legendary quarterback Peyton Manning to move on, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia & no one gave them a chance of making the playoffs - yet here they are after ending up with an impressive 11&5 record.

(Dennis Pitta could offer some value as a first touchdown scorer)

When you look back through the Colts' schedule you would have to accept it was one of the easiest of any side this year & that of course helped them gain their impressive amount of wins but the impact of Andrew Luck's quarterback play shouldn't be underestimated. Luck has come in & formed great partnerships instantly, particularly with veteran receiver Reggie Wayne who looked like he may be slowing last year yet has put up big numbers this time around. Importantly Luck has looked composed when the Colts have fallen behind, & they have done so often with their ordinary defense, that's meant he's been able to pull off late wins that have made the difference & they nearly always remain with a chance even if a couple of scores behind.

We aren't great fans of the Ravens here but they might have the right kind of game to show up Indianapolis's deficiencies here especially if they can get their classy running back Ray Rice in the game as often as possible. Baltimore's defense has been feted for years but hasn't been anywhere near so scary this year as key players have started to show their age (it often happens suddenly in the NFL) & injuries have impacted too, & just like the Colts they have a lot of wins this year against pretty ordinary teams. The Ravens have been relying on passer Joe Flacco too often for our liking as he remains inconsistent even though his strong arm means he's always a threat to every team in the league. Flacco has Torrey Smith as an excellent deep threat with his speed & size but when he gets closer to the end zone the tight end Dennis Pitta is a top target & he looks overpriced at 12/1 to score the first touchdown. Surely though the Ravens' coordinators will have noticed how the Colts' run defense isn't strong enough & we can see them handing the ball off to Ray Rice for the entire game as they look to move the ball down the field safely. The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games & must be lacking a little confidence, the perfect antidote is to rely on their best player & Rice can help them lead from start to finish, the Colts run will come to an end so take Baltimore to lead at half time & full time for improved odds of 4/6.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Two of the league's impressive rookie quarterbacks face off in this one as Robert Griffin III & the Redskins host Russell Wilson & the Seahawks, both teams finished off the regular season in great form & this has the potential to be explosive.

(Russell Wilson & the Seahawks have been scoring for fun in recent games)

RG III possesses a top threat as a runner as well as when passing & that's helped them rank as the top team in terms of rushing yards this season, he's put up over 800 rushing yards & their rookie running back Alfred Morris has 1,613. That running game will be key here as Seattle have a very good defense but is slightly more vulnerable to the run than pass, their star cornerback Brandon Browner should be fit after injury too, meaning easy passing yards won't be there for Washington. On defense the Redskins got better towards the end of the season but they still remain too easy to pass against & they ranked 30th in passing yards against, DeAngelo Hall is decent at cornerback but doesn't have too many other great players in the secondary to help him out.

Seattle's Russell Wilson wasn't given much of a chance to be a success by plenty of pundits, he's slightly short for an NFL quarterback but he has improved all season & he had passer ratings of 100+ in 7 of  his last 8 games & also showed he is a serious running threat when he scored 3 rushing TDs in week 15 against Buffalo. Wilson's receiver corps are a dependable if unexplosive set & there were only 2 occasions all season where a receiver had a 100 yard receiving game for them all season. We do hoever love their running back Marshawn Lynch & he followed up  dozen TDs in 2011 with 11 this time & a huge 5.0 average yard per rushing attempt, he'll pound away at the Redskins defense & set up the pass plays. On defense the Seahawks are statistically very god, ranking 6th against the pass & 10th against the run, it may however be boosted by how difficult it is for opposing defenses to operate in Seattle due to the noise.

Washington have the home field advantage here & that could prove a crucial factor as Seattle are clearly a better side when they have the rabid & incredibly noisy fans behind them at CentuyLink Field making it difficult for opposing offenses to hear their play calling. The Seahawks probably deserve favouritism as they've beaten some top sides already this year (Packers, Patriots & 49ers), it's a tough game to call either way though & instead we'll take it to go over 46 points, the Redskins scored the 4th most points of any side in the regular season & Seattle went wild in the last few weeks scoring 170 points total in their last 4, Washington have also only limited opponents to less than 20 points 3 times all season.

Selections:
Over 46 points in Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins game at 10/11 (General)
Baltimore Ravens to be beating Indianapolis Colts at half time & full time at 4/6 (Various)
Dennis Pitta to score first touchdown in Colts @ Ravens game at 12/1 (William Hill)

NFL Week 5 - Super Cam can Slay Seahawks

They say pride come before a fall & we came back down to earth on Saturday with a bump after 4 wins from 4 picks early in the week, our ambitious pick of QPR failed to come off even after they showed a bit of fight vs West brom & Gillingham failed to find a way through after hitting the post early on against Oxford. You can't win them all though (unless you're the Houston Texans!) & we're back with picks from two of Sunday's NFL games as the Seahawks take on the Panthers & the Eagles face off against the Steelers.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Every Carolina game has a little bit of unpredictability as you can never be sure just how effective their star player, quarterback Cam Newton can be & he's got a tough test this week against Seattle's decent defense. Seattle have a slightly better record than Carolina this year with two wins compared to the Panthers' one but that is highly fortunate as one of those victories was the controversial last second win over the Green Bay Packers.

(We're looking for Cam Newton to star in this one against Seattle)

Both of Seattle's victories have come at home & they tend to fare a lot better on their own field in general with only 8 road wins from the 2008 season onwards. Carolina's loss in week one v Tampa was disappointing but their other two losses were no disgrace, getting rather blown away by Super Bowl champs the New York Giants & then pushing form side Atlanta all the way last week. The Panthers' have a pretty ordinary defense but the Seahawks probably aren't the team to exploit it as they rank just 28th in points scored & yards gained per game & they will surely continue to rely heavily on Marshawn Lynch rather than the passing of their somewhat limited rookie Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks have a mean pass rush but that isn't the best way to stop Cam Newton as he isn't a quarterback who wants to stay in the pocket anyway & he could really hurt Seattle by taking off & breaking off some big runs. Newton really is the key here but if he does perform we can see Carolina winning this by a stretch, he's averaging a league high 9.5 yards per completed pass plus has run for plenty of yards & 3 rushing touchdowns already. With Cam being backed up with the running game of DeAngelo Williams the Panthers can cover the -3 point handicap & consign Seattle to another away loss.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This interstate game only comes around once every four years but means that we have a veritable derby game between the Philadephia Eagles & Pittsburgh Steelers of Pennsylvania at the Steelers' home of Heinz Field.

(Eagles fans will hope to see less of this from Michael Vick)

This is maybe the most fascinating contest of the week as the teams rank 5th (Pittsburgh) & 6th (Philadelphia) on defense but both have some weapons on offense too with the Eagles ranking 5th in offensive yards gained & Pittsburgh having one of the most dangerous passing attacks with Ben Roethlisberger having ace receivers to pass to. The Eagles's offensive yard stat doesn't tell the whole story though as although they rank 5th in yards they rank in 30th place in points scored as they have turned the ball over too many times & struggled to get touchdowns when in the red zone (38.5% of the time). Michael Vick hasn't protected the ball at all well at times & they've had a league high 6 rushing fumbles. Yet for all their troubles the Eagles have somehow managed to get 3 wins from 4 games by a combined total of just 4 points with incredibly narrow victories over the Browns, Ravens & Giants & the saying goes that good teams win even when playing badly.

(Mike Wallace is out to show Antonio Brown & others he's still the star receiver in Pittsburgh)

The Steelers are coming off a bye week & they'll be hoping to improve after a slow start that has seen them only beat the terrible New York Jets. The bye week came at the right time as they were really struggling with injuries to key players but they all look likely to return in this one, Troy Polamalu & James Harrison are two of the NFL's biggest defensive stars & will really bolster them whilst the return of Rashard Mendenhall at running back could add a much needed running game to complement the passing. At receiver the Steelers have an arsenal of talent with the emerging Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown & Mike Wallace, the team had some issues with Wallace pre-season & he missed some training but he has improved markedly in each game as shown by receiving figures of 37, 74 & 123 yards respectively & a touchdown in each game - he's overpriced at 9/1 to score the first touchdown of the game.

This isn't an easy one to call as we've been unimpressed with the Steelers so far & Philadelphia seem to make too many mistakes to be trusted even though they've somehow gained 3 wins from 4 games so instead we'll take the total points line & the game to go over 43. Only one of Philadelphia's games has gone over that mark so far but they have had the chances to score many more points than they've managed whilst we've seen 50 & 65 points in two of Pittsburgh's games suggesting this has the potential to be a high scoring affair.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Seattle Seahawks with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Various)
Over 43 total points in Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers at 10/11 (Various)
Mike Wallace to score first touchdown at 9/1 (Paddy Power)

Thursday Night NFL - Big birds to cancel each other out

Week 13 in the NFL begins this Thursday with a battle between two teams with identical records of 4 wins & 7 losses, both won their respective divisions last year but it now seems virtually impossible either the Philadelphia Eagles or hosts the Seattle Seahawks will make the playoffs this year. Both sides will want to finish the season strongly though to prove they can be contenders next year in order to attract playing talent, the Seahawks can point to having a transitional year after losing 10 year quarterback Matt Hasselbeck & the Eagles look to have many talented individuals but haven't been able to operate well enough, especially on defense, as a team - that could spell trouble for the league's longest serving head coach Andy Reid.

(The Seahawks Tavaris Jackson - he's not very good)

This game looks a really tough one to call as there are so many factors that seem to balance themselves out starting off with where the game is played, Qwest (or now CenturyLink) Field is a tough place to come for opposing teams with a raucous atmosphere whilst opposing offenses are on the field leading to missed snaps & penalties but the Eagles have been struggling at home (1 win, 5 losses) with the crowd getting on their back & might just need this away trip. That atmosphere could play a part with the Eagles having to stay with backup quarterback Vince Young, with noise like this it helps if an offense knows each other very well & although Young has played a decent amount in the side this isn't like a veteran quarterback with a set of offensive linemne that have been together for years - they'll find it difficult to go to a silent count.

On offense the Eagles are great at running the ball, leading the league with 5.6 yards per carry but the Seahawks have been great at stopping the run being only behind the Ravens in yards allowed per run with 3.8, they've played some hot rushing sides in the Rams, Ravens & 49ers so that looks a pretty true stat. The Seahawks meanwhile aren't very good at running or passing with the ball ranking 27th & 25th respectively in yards gained in either offensive aspect. The Eagles haven't been great defensively, their overall yardage given up is respectable but it has to be taken into account that they take a lot of time off of the clock by using their potent running game often, they're giving up 4.3 yards a rush & 7.7 yards a catch so are very ordinary.

(LeSean McCoy has 13 touchdowns already this year for the Eagles)

Looking at the individuals who could win this for their team Philadelphia's running back LeSean McCoy stands out with 1,050 rushing yards already & touchdowns in 10 of their 11 games, he will almost certainly be used in plenty of plays in this one especially without the first choice QB Michael Vick playing, odds of 4/9 to score a touchdown at anytime are great value - if his current form carried on he should be 1/10. The Seahawks have basically a poor quarterback in Tavaris Jackson & so will use their running game as well, Marshawn Lynch has 706 yards on the ground but hasn't been averaging too far with each attempt at just 3.9 yards compared to McCoys 5.6 yards. The Seahawks look to have found a good young receiver in rookie Doug Baldwin who's been a potent deep threat & has as many receiving touchdowns as anyone on the team with just two. Defensively the Eagles look to have players who could make big plays but haven't been doing it this year & the Seattle defense looks solid enough but definitely not spectacular. With both sides likely to run the ball a lot in this one it looks like a lot of time could be coming off the clock with each possession & that points to a low scoring game, the total points are set at 43.5 & betting under that total looks the sensible option.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in the Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks game at 10/11 (various)
LeSean McCoy to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/9 (Boylesports)