NFL Wildcard Weekend - Seahawks & Redskins can go points mad

Sunday's NFL wildcard playoff games are both competitive affairs & although the Colts @ Ravens should be good we're really looking forward to the late game between Seattle & Washington. We're previewing both & have three betting selections that can make viewing even more enjoyable.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Baltimore with a great back story - they finished with just two wins last last season meaning they got the first draft pick & they selected Andrew Luck & allowed legendary quarterback Peyton Manning to move on, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia & no one gave them a chance of making the playoffs - yet here they are after ending up with an impressive 11&5 record.

(Dennis Pitta could offer some value as a first touchdown scorer)

When you look back through the Colts' schedule you would have to accept it was one of the easiest of any side this year & that of course helped them gain their impressive amount of wins but the impact of Andrew Luck's quarterback play shouldn't be underestimated. Luck has come in & formed great partnerships instantly, particularly with veteran receiver Reggie Wayne who looked like he may be slowing last year yet has put up big numbers this time around. Importantly Luck has looked composed when the Colts have fallen behind, & they have done so often with their ordinary defense, that's meant he's been able to pull off late wins that have made the difference & they nearly always remain with a chance even if a couple of scores behind.

We aren't great fans of the Ravens here but they might have the right kind of game to show up Indianapolis's deficiencies here especially if they can get their classy running back Ray Rice in the game as often as possible. Baltimore's defense has been feted for years but hasn't been anywhere near so scary this year as key players have started to show their age (it often happens suddenly in the NFL) & injuries have impacted too, & just like the Colts they have a lot of wins this year against pretty ordinary teams. The Ravens have been relying on passer Joe Flacco too often for our liking as he remains inconsistent even though his strong arm means he's always a threat to every team in the league. Flacco has Torrey Smith as an excellent deep threat with his speed & size but when he gets closer to the end zone the tight end Dennis Pitta is a top target & he looks overpriced at 12/1 to score the first touchdown. Surely though the Ravens' coordinators will have noticed how the Colts' run defense isn't strong enough & we can see them handing the ball off to Ray Rice for the entire game as they look to move the ball down the field safely. The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games & must be lacking a little confidence, the perfect antidote is to rely on their best player & Rice can help them lead from start to finish, the Colts run will come to an end so take Baltimore to lead at half time & full time for improved odds of 4/6.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Two of the league's impressive rookie quarterbacks face off in this one as Robert Griffin III & the Redskins host Russell Wilson & the Seahawks, both teams finished off the regular season in great form & this has the potential to be explosive.

(Russell Wilson & the Seahawks have been scoring for fun in recent games)

RG III possesses a top threat as a runner as well as when passing & that's helped them rank as the top team in terms of rushing yards this season, he's put up over 800 rushing yards & their rookie running back Alfred Morris has 1,613. That running game will be key here as Seattle have a very good defense but is slightly more vulnerable to the run than pass, their star cornerback Brandon Browner should be fit after injury too, meaning easy passing yards won't be there for Washington. On defense the Redskins got better towards the end of the season but they still remain too easy to pass against & they ranked 30th in passing yards against, DeAngelo Hall is decent at cornerback but doesn't have too many other great players in the secondary to help him out.

Seattle's Russell Wilson wasn't given much of a chance to be a success by plenty of pundits, he's slightly short for an NFL quarterback but he has improved all season & he had passer ratings of 100+ in 7 of  his last 8 games & also showed he is a serious running threat when he scored 3 rushing TDs in week 15 against Buffalo. Wilson's receiver corps are a dependable if unexplosive set & there were only 2 occasions all season where a receiver had a 100 yard receiving game for them all season. We do hoever love their running back Marshawn Lynch & he followed up  dozen TDs in 2011 with 11 this time & a huge 5.0 average yard per rushing attempt, he'll pound away at the Redskins defense & set up the pass plays. On defense the Seahawks are statistically very god, ranking 6th against the pass & 10th against the run, it may however be boosted by how difficult it is for opposing defenses to operate in Seattle due to the noise.

Washington have the home field advantage here & that could prove a crucial factor as Seattle are clearly a better side when they have the rabid & incredibly noisy fans behind them at CentuyLink Field making it difficult for opposing offenses to hear their play calling. The Seahawks probably deserve favouritism as they've beaten some top sides already this year (Packers, Patriots & 49ers), it's a tough game to call either way though & instead we'll take it to go over 46 points, the Redskins scored the 4th most points of any side in the regular season & Seattle went wild in the last few weeks scoring 170 points total in their last 4, Washington have also only limited opponents to less than 20 points 3 times all season.

Selections:
Over 46 points in Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins game at 10/11 (General)
Baltimore Ravens to be beating Indianapolis Colts at half time & full time at 4/6 (Various)
Dennis Pitta to score first touchdown in Colts @ Ravens game at 12/1 (William Hill)

NFL Week 16 - Colts can show Chiefs who's the Boss

Just two weeks of regular season games before the NFL playoffs & it looks like the cream has risen to the top in most divisions, we're looking at a couple of games where we think the odds make a wager worthwhile as we try to follow up the two odds against winners last Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City are on course to end up with the worst record in the league - thus ending up with the first pick in the draft whilst Indianapolis can seal a playoff spot with a win here & that should tell you all you need to know about the teams' motivation & the most likely winners here.

(T.Y. Hilton looks overpriced to score the first touchdown in the Colts v Chiefs game)

The Colts finished last in 2011, with star passer Peyton Manning injured, & that allowed them to pick up incredible rookie passer Andrew Luck who has helped guide them to a 9&5 record & the brink of the playoffs, they couldn't have asked for a better game to clinch a post season berth than this one as the Chiefs have taken beatings week in & week out. The Colts' defense is pretty ordinary ranking 21st against the pass & 23rd against the run but Kansas have the lowest average points scored per game in the league at just 13.9 & they're a one dimensional outfit that rely heavily on tailback Jamaal Charles as their quarterback play is so weak. With the knowledge that Kansas are unlikely to score too often the Colts offense will feel pretty confident & the combination of Luck passing to Reggie Wayne will be seen often as they've struck up a great partnership. The other success story for the Colts has been the play of rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton & he's bagged himself 6 touchdowns on the year, Hilton looks too big at 10/1 to get the first TD - he's also on kick & punt returns giving us extra scoring chances. Indy have a few injury niggles but all their key players look set to start & we think they'll be tough to stop

 The Chiefs didn't even get a single point against the pretty bad themselves Raiders last week as they went down 15-0 to 5 Janikowski field goals, it was embarrassing stuff & their defense will feel deflated after not allowing Oakland to score a TD & still losing badly. There's no let up with the dire quarterback play with Brady Quinn only having thrown two scores on the season & they were against a porous Carolina defense. Offensively everything rests on Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs & he's been great with 1,230 rushing yards but even he struggled last week getting just 10 yards total on 9 carries & he must be tiring, it looks a tough ask for them to even put up a bold display in their last home game of the year & even their fans mightn't want to see them win if it means they're deprived of the first draft pick!

The Colts will be desperate to get the job done this week as in their final regular season game they host the Texans & that looks a very tough one indeed unless they've already got the number one spot. With the Chiefs having lost 10 of their 14 games by more than 7 points the handicap of -6.5 points for Indianapolis looks a great bet & should be snapped up without hesitation.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Miami are technically still in the hunt for a wildcard playoff place with the potential to get to an even 8&8 record with two wins but it seems highly unlikely they'll make it & the Bills are already eliminated with a 5&9 losing record. With pretty ordinary quarterback play for both teams this looks like it might be tight & trappy encounter with lots of rushing plays, it might not be the most important game of all time but we think there's money to be made as a gambling event.

(Mario Williams is starting to prove his worth at defensive end for the Bills)

Buffalo took a humiliating beating last week to Seattle but the Seahawks seem to have turned on the afterburners in their last few outings (becoming Super Bowl dark horses in the process) & that may not have been quite as dreadful a result as it looked for the Bills. The Buffalo defense had started to perform closer to the level it should be at with the individuals in it & the upgrades made before the season started, before the Seahawks game they'd restricted opponents to 20 or less points for 4 games in a row. On offense they rank up in 6th for rushing yards & C.J. Spiller continues to pick up the yards in his breakout season but he won't find it easy against the Dolphins' defense that rank 6th in points given up & 8th against the run.

Miami have struggled for points all season & we don't see it improving here even though Buffalo have been bad against the run over the year, Reggie Bush is not a dependable running back & he'll be getting a heavy workload with Daniel Thomas now out for the remainder of the season. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill did well against Jacksonville but they're not a good side & his passer rating of 75.9 is not very good at all. Brian Hartline & Davone Bess are targeted way more than his other receivers & that's problematic as Bess is out & Hartline still questionable for the game, without them it 'll be tough for them to move the ball easily down the field. They're pretty hot defensively & Karlos Dansby continues to be monstrous at the linebacker position & Reshad Jones has been pretty nifty at safety too, that tough defense always gives them a chance as they look to shut down the opposition & gain good field position. With decent defenses, rushing games meaning the clock will tick & overall questionable quarterbacks we can see this being a low scoring affair so back under 41.5 total points at Evens with Coral.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -6.5 point handicap at 10/11 (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill)
T.Y. Hilton to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet & William Hill)
Under 41.5 points in Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins at Evens (Coral)

NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 12 - Buffalo out of Luck at Colts

We've already had 3 games this week as Thursday saw the traditional Thanksgiving games & the Texans continued to win & now stand at 10&1 for the season & the Patriots won convincingly too to keep up the chase in the AFC. We're looking at a couple of games that could prove crucial in the chase for the playoffs & there are some nice bets to be had as we try to keep the winners coming!

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

This game looks like a potential cracker with 5 of the Bills games totaling over 50 points this season & here they come up against the number one overall draft pick in the Colts' outstanding young quarterback Andrew Luck.

(Vick Ballard (taking the hand-off) could have a huge game running the ball)

The Bills have been embarrassingly bad on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 ranking 26th in total defense & have given up the 3rd most points per game (29.9 - only the Raiders & Titans are worse) & they've been particularly awful against stopping the run. What makes Buffalo's defensive malaise worse is that they invested heavily during the off season bringing in Mario Williams as their marquee signing from the Texans yet the Bills have got worse & Houston seem just as good without Williams. Buffalo's weakness against the run could bite them here even though you'd think of the Colts as a passing team, Andrew Luck is happy to take off & has already run in 5 TDs himself plus we reckon Vick Ballard could rack up the rushing yards in this one too.

Buffalo would maybe be more competitive if their offense was a little more explosive but it's been merely average this season even with some excellent running performances from the emerging C.J. Spiller - both Spiller & fellow running back Fred Jackson have slightly injury concerns here (Knee & concussion respectively). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is only ordinary & his stats this season look slightly skewed thanks to facing some pretty average teams at times, their 4 wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona & Miami...

The Colts have also beaten some poor sides but have added the notable scalps of the Minnesota Vikings & Green Bay Packers too & have only lost at home once from 5 games so far, there is a real sense of optimisim in Indianapolis & they'll feel they can bounce back after being slapped down by the Patriots last week. The Colts rank an impressive 5th in offensive yards gained per game & Luck has passed for 300+ yards in 5 out of 10 games which are excellent numbers for a rookie. Luck has developed a great relationship with key receiver Reggie Wayne & the spectacular catch maker already has 1,003 receiving yards - he'll be a favourite target here.With home field advantage (& the fact we haven't read too much into the blowout loss against New England) we're confident that the Colts can easily cover the -3 point handicap against a brittle Buffalo side.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

This game between two of the big name sides in the NFL is one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams needing to win this one to keep up the pace in their tight divisions, the Giants have stumbled in their last couple & are looking to bounce back after their bye week whilst the Packers look to keep rolling after 5 straight wins.

(Touchdown! Jordy Nelson! At least we hope that's the commentary)

There are similarities in both teams as they are largely reliant on the performances of their quarterbacks & their defenses creating turnovers & it has proven a successful strategy as they have taken the last two Super Bowls. Of course relying so heavily on your passer means that if he has a bad game then you invariably lose & that has been the Giants' problem with Eli Manning's form dipping markedly in their last 4 games after a great start to the season & they lost to the Steelers & Bengals after receiving scares from the Redskins & Cowboys. Manning is a top quarterback & a real big game player (as two Super Bowls prove) but we'd always take Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers if we had to pick between the two, he's outstanding  leads the league with a passer rating of 107.3 whilst Manning is down at a mediocre 81.8.

Green Bay are the only team to have beaten the Houston Texans this year & also prevailed against Chicago (only other loss was to Houston) which shows they are right up there in terms of the best teams this season & they've come back well after shock, close losses to Seattle & Indianapolis. The Packers could certainly do wit improving their offensive line which has given up 32 sacks & is a big reason their running game is relatively ineffective, they're fortunate that Rodgers doesn't panic under pressure & their defensive pass rush is a weaon on the other side with 33 sacks of their own. Green Bay's defense will be missing star linebacker Clay Matthews but they'll still fancy they can get pressure on Eli Manning & if they do his slump could continue. Key for the Packers is that they limit star receiver Victor Cruz as much as possible, he's Manning's favourite target by far whereas Rodgers has a wide range of targets to pick from though Jordy Nelson may be the man to concentrate on now he's fit again, he's a big price at 8/1 to bag the first touchdown.

New York do have the home advantage but they will need to have worked on Eli Manning's game plenty in their bye week because he's looking unfocused at times & we would much rather be with the Packers in this one with a handy 3 point handicap lead.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Buffalo Bills with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Green Bay Packers to beat New York Giants with +3 points on the handicap at 5/6 (General)
Jordy Nelson to score first touchdown in Packers @ Giants game at 8/1 (Various)

NFL Week 6 - Bengals to beat up Browns

We're still smarting after the Texans couldn't beat the Jets by 9 points or more on Monday night even with a performance that should have been just enough but anyway we're back with selections for Sunday as we look to bounce back. The season long bets of the Texans for the Super Bowl & the 49ers to win the NFC are still looking good & there should be plenty of opportunities for nice bets between now & the post season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

In the first game we're taking a look at we have a divisional rivalry as the AFC North sees Cincinnati travel to take on the NFL's only team without a win in 2012, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland are a pretty poor side as evidenced by their record this year & just 4 wins, against weak sides, last year & they've already lost to the Bengals this time around just 4 games ago with Cincinnati prevailing 37-24.

(A stupendous catch - all in a day's work for A.J. Green)

The Browns have rookies playing at their two key skill positions on offense with Brandon Weeden at qyarterback & Trent Richardson at tailback, both were selected in the first round of the draft but Richardson has started at lot better than Weeden. Brandon Weeden is stone last in the quarterback ratings this year at a lowly 64.5 & although he had his best display when facing the Bengals (2 TDs & no interceptions) he can't be relied upon when the pressure's on. Rookie passers struggling is nothing new & it is all a learning curve for Weeden, the Browns will try to take the pressure off by running the ball with Richardson & although he's done reasonably their other backs have offered next to nothing. With the Brown's pretty lightweight offense they've needed their defense to step up but that side of the game has been weak too, ranking 29th in yards given up & they don't really have any defensive stars other thancornerback Joe Haden who returns this week from suspension.

The Browns need Haden back  because he'll be up against one of the very best receivers around in the Bengals' A.J. Green, Green already has 4 touchdowns & is pushing 100 receiving yards a game as he continues to form a fine partnership with passer Andy Dalton. In contrast to Brandon Weeden, Dalton is having a fine season & has thrown 9 strikes to 6 picks & is gaining an impressive average of 8 yards per pass - he'll fancy himself to have more success in this one. The Bengals are just average defensively & they don't tend to make explosive plays (they've gained just one interception all season) but average means not bad & they have little to fear today. We think the Bengals should be hotter favourites than they are & odds of 10/13 for them to pick up the win are fair indeed even though playing on the road.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

In this game we again like the look of the road team as the Colts travel to take on the New York Jets who put up a spirited but ultimately fruitless display against the Texans on Monday night. Last week while the Jets were being beaten, Indianapolis managed to gain a win over one of the league's heavyweights in the Green Bay Packers & number one draft pick Andrew Luck had a great game as he continues to look much more experienced than the rookie he is.

(Andrew Luck can continue to impress against the weakened Jets)

Although the Jets did only lose by 6 to maybe the best team in the league on Monday that was in part thanks to a 100 yard kick return & those don't come around too often, it also remains to be seen whether they can get themselves up for consecutive games as they've been abysmal at times. The Jets' injury problems remain & Mark Sanchez still looks a suspect passer & their running game continues to be ineffective with their number one runnig back Shonn Greene averagin just 2.9 yards per attempt. Indianapolis will be sending their star defender Dwight Freeney after Sanchez making it even more likely he'll chuck some passes up to be intercepted, Freeney was injured in week one & made a real difference on his return last week.

The Colts have been decent offensively with Luck's passing helping them rank 10th overall in yards gained & 6th in passing yards - he can also take off on the ground making him a very dangerous player & it means he's a good compliment to rusher Donald Brown who has a decent average yards per carry of 4.0. Reggie Wayne has been having a monstrous season with 506 receiving yards in just the 4 games & he'll look to beat Rodgers-Cromartie this week just like every other cornerback he's come up against. Other than their loss to Jacksonville the Colts have performed well considering they gained just two wins last year & they are underrated today, backing them with a useful 3.5 point lead on the handicap looks the way to go.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Cleveland Browns at 10/13 (Skybet & Paddy Power)
Indianapolis Colts to beat New York Jets with +3.5 points on handicap at 5/6 (Various)

NFL Thursday - Texans continue to run to Super Bowl

This Thursday night game sees a divisional game in the AFC South between the Indianapolis Colts who've won the division 7 times in 8 years against the Houston Texans who've never even made the playoffs until this year. In their short existence the Texans have never won a game here in Indianapolis but this has to be their best ever chance as the Colts have won just once all year & the Texans have the league's 2nd best defense up against Indianapolis's 2nd worst in the league offense. The only positive for the Colts is that they won last time out to avoid going winless but that was thanks to playing against the Titans who insisted on playing quarterback Matt Hasselbeck even though he was injured, they paid the price as he put in his worst performance of the season to hand the Colts the win.

 (Double Trouble - the Texans' rushers Ben Tate & Arian Foster can terrorise the Colts defense)

We were wholly against the Colts on Sunday & although we were wrong there that was a freak performance with the Titans putting in an abject display & the Texans really are starting to become an excellent team. Houston have missed arguably the league's best receiver in Andre Johnson for virtually the whole season, their defensive star Mario Williams for the year & first choice quarterback Matt Schaub from week 10 as well as his backup Matt Leinart - they've still powered on thanks to some excellent defensive schemes, their ace running game (ranked 2nd) & rookies stepping up to the mark with J.J. Watt being great in defense & T.J. Yates doing a stellar job at quarterback. The Colts are ranked 28th at defending the run  they shouldn't be able to cope with superstar running back Arian Foster especially with his game being backed up by Ben Tate who's making his first active seaosn in the NFL, after being injured during his rookie year, a memorable one with 846 rushing yards at a very nice average of 5.5 yards a time. Even more crucial to the win will be the Texans defense, they've been excellent so far & should have little trouble with the Colts third string QB Dan Orlovsky who threw for a paltry 82 yards in that win against Tennessee, running back Donald Brown had a career high game but that was helped by some awful missed tackles that let him score an 80 yard touchdown run - those tackles would not have been missed by the organised Texans defense.

(Dan Orlovsky & the mediocre Colts' offense will give the great Texans defense little to worry about)

Looking at the game overall it seems as though the Texans should have no problem shutting down the Colts' offense, before last week's loss to the high scoring Panthers they hadn't let any team score more than 19 points in their last 7 games & the 10/11 on offer for the toothless Colts to score under 17 points is an outstanding bet. Both sides will run the ball a lot meaning the clock will keep ticking & the total points at 40 looks a shade on the high side, 5 of the Colts last 7 have been 40 points or under & 3 of the Texans last 4 (since Schaub was injured) have been under with the only one going over being 41 points, take under 40 total points at 10/11. We really would be shocked to see this being a high scoring encounter but we still like the look of the Texans, rather than taking the short odds for them to win we think a small bet on them to win by 1-6 points at 4/1 offers some real value, they'll eb happy to keep sneaking them & keeping towards the top of the playoff seedings where we then hope they can bring in our 25/1 pre-season tip.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Indianapolis Colts by 1-6 points at 4/1 (Stan James)
Total Indianapolis points to be under 17 at 10/11 (general)
Total game points to be under 40 at 10/11 (general)

NFL Week 15 - Time's up for Tebow

Just 3 games left before the playoffs & the cream has risen to the top in just about every division, there's still plenty to play for & some big gamesin the coming weeks, we've got this round covered & hope to improve on a sorry bunch of picks last week. We went for under 38.5 total points in both the Texans v Bengals & 49ers v Cardinals games only for there to be 39 & 40 points in each respective game, that's frustrating but we can bounce back with some big winners this week & we think we've got some ace ones.

It's official, the Indianapolis Colts are the worst team in the league by a mile, they've lost all 13 games so far & have conceded the most points in the league to leave them with a league worst points difference (between what they've scored v opponents) of -198, without Peyton Manning they are dire so it makes little sense why the very decent Tennessee Titans are only 1 touchdown favourites to beat them. The Colts have been beaten by at least 7 points in their last 8 games & have only covered that spread in 2 games all season, in weeks 3 & 5, the Titans beat them 27-10 in the reverse fixture & have built up a respectable 7&6 record - it's not spectacular but it's light years ahead of Indianapolis.

(Chris Jonson can pay back a little bit of his $53m contract by scoring first against the Colts)

The Titans defense ranks 6th best in points conceded per game & their signing of Matt Hasselbeck from the Seahawks has worked out very nicely with him playing some quality football, unfortunately he damaged his hamstring in last week's game against the Saints & is doubtful here meaning that rookie Jake Locker may well be called upon. Obviously replacing your quarterback isn't ideal but Locker was the 8th pick overall in this year's draft & before his somewhat disappointing senior season in college was being predicted as a 1st overall pick so he has talent, he's seen a little action this year & already thrown 3 touchdowns & importantly no interceptions, his completion rate isn't great but if he doesn't give turnovers he's doing fine. The Titans should have the players to get the yards they need on the ground anyway with the highest earning running back in the league Chris Johnson looking to get some huge yards against the NFL's 3rd worst rushing defense. There's no doubt Johnson has been disappointing this year & he was poor against New Orleans last week but in the two games before he ran for 190 & 153 yards against the Buccaneers & Bills, they're bad defending the run & it seems he likes to bully these poorer sides, we think at 7/2 Johnson is a decent price to score the first TD. The Colts have problems all over the place, they rank 30th in sacks made, last in interceptions made, don't score points & now they've benched the season's starting QB Curtis Painter & are using perennial backup Dan Orlovsky as their passer, he's unlikely to see much joy in this one but he won't be as bad as their running game which is led by the incredibly ordinary Donald Brown. We can't see anything other than the Titans winning by at least a touchdown & should be backed with -6.5 points on the handicap, yes the Colts are at home & yes they will be desperate not to go to 0&14 but there's a reason they've lost every game so far - they are trash!

 (There won't be another miracle for Tim Tebow in this one against the Patriots)

Elsewhere the New England Patriots will have to overcome the divine inspiration that continues to guide the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos to victory in the most unlikely circumstances week after week but we think they can do it by scoring points & forcing the Broncos to use the passing game, which is where they will crumble. The Broncos have won their last 6 games even though they scored over 20 points in just 2 of them & have won their last 4 games after trailing in the last 2 minutes of the game, often Tebow & the whole offense has been dreadful in the 1st half of games but the defense has been good enough all year to keep things close enough for them to drag it out of the fire. The problem for Denver here is that they are dealing with a truly elite offense in the Patriots & if they don't start firing until late on New England will already be out of reach, the Broncos have the most rushing yards & 2nd least passing but the Pats' weakness is in their secondary against the pass & Tebow & his receivers won't be good enough to expose it. Tebow's only completing 48.5% of his passes this year & his receivers are pretty average, Eric Decker is respectable but they miss Brandon Lloyd who was traded to the Rams, that means even when they want to throw the targets aren't there & it'll prove costly here.

(The phenomenal Rob Gronkowski & the rest of the Patriot's passing game can find success at Mile High against the Broncos)

The Patriots have been on fire in the passing game having racked up 30+ points in 9 of their 13 games & Brady has found tight end Rob Gronkowski 16 times in the end zone, that's very nearly half of the 33 touchdowns Brady has thrown yet receiver Wes Welker is the league's receiving leader with 100 receptions & 1,339 yards. Brady can also go to other tight end Aaron Hernandez & deep threat Deion Branch, he also has league veteran Chad Ochocinco if he needs him & it all means that they put up points wherever they are. Brady will need to be wary of the great pass rushers the Broncos have but he has pretty good protection & has such a quick release of the ball he's only been sacked 22 times all season which is excellent for such a passing team.. They were burned for 170 rushing yards against the Redskins last week but that was their worst of the season & Brady will put up big enough numbers again for the Patriots to win by more than 7.5 points to bring up the handicap bet at 10/11.

Selections:
Tennessee Titans to beat Indianapolis Colts with -6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (general)
Chris Johnson to score first Touchdown at 7/2 (general) in Titans v Colts game
New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 10/11 (general)