NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 13 - Cardinals & Jets won't get up to speed

We're right at the business end of the regular season now with wins being enough to clinch divisions & playoff places whilst losses could mean the end of competitive football for some teams for another season. We're looking at two games as we look for more profit in the NFL season before the playoffs get underway.

With the apparent murder-suicide by Kansas City linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/01/sports/football/01reuters-nfl-chiefs-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss it throws the Panthers @ Chiefs game into doubt & means our selections are irrelevant.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs

More mediocrity! As we look at a game with two teams with just 4 wins from 22 games this season between them! The 3&8 Panthers are travelling to the 1&10 league worst Kansas City Chiefs in a game where both sides are striving to add a semblance of respectability to their season.

(Brandon LaFell is a dangerous deep threat for the Panthers)

The Panthers have had a pretty tough schedule & looking back at the teams they've lost to you'd probably only say that the loss in week 5 when at home to the poor travelling Seahawks was a bad one, they took red hot Tampa Bay to overtime two weeks ago & then beat down the Eagles (like most sides do at the moment) last week with star player Cam Newton starting to get his confidence back. Carolina have started to look better in recent weeks & have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 & even though winning only 2 they went down by just a single point to a strong Chicago Bears side in that sequence too.

The Chiefs have only scored 20+ points three times all season & rank stone last in points gained per game with just 14.6 & have fared pretty badly in points given up at 27.4 per game to rank 28th in the NFL. Atrocious quarterback play has been the Chiefs' downfall with Matt Cassel & (Not Tom) Brady Quinn combining for a grand total of 6 touchdowns between them & 16 interceptions thrown - it looks like Mr Quinn is getting the start here. Jamaal Charles has been great at tailback after returning from injury  in the last 3 weeks has run for 100, 87 & 107 yards but it just isn't enough to cover for the quarterback play that has meant they've had 21 more turnovers than their opponents over the season. They've been decent on pass defense & we've a lot of love for their cornerback Brandon Flowers but their rush defense hasn't been up to scratch & they'll struggle to stop Cam Newton taking off when he scrambles.

Carolina still need their running backs Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams to step up & help Cam Newton if they're going to become a more complete offensive unit but regardless they will have enough to trounce the Chiefs here & can easily beat them by more than the 3 points required on the point spread.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets

The Cardinals haven't won a game since week 4 meaning they're on a 7 game losing streak whilst the Jets have cobbled together an identical 4&7 record but with their wins more sporadic - they have at times looked laughable & some of their play last week against the Patriots was simply appalling.

(Not Mark Sanchez's finest moment on the football field)

New York would have been particularly upset last week with the way the team simply went awol during the 2nd quarter & gave up 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady & New England, the Jets don't have enough weapons on offense to allow teams easy points. Mark Sanchez continues to be one of the least convincing starting quarterbacks in the league & he's thrown just 12 touchdowns on the year as the Jets rank 28th in passing yards. The Jets have in recent years prided themselves on their stout defense which has helped cover up their offensive flaws but this year they're giving up an average of 26.4 points a game to rank 26th & they've been awful against the run ranking 30th with over 140 yards per game against them. Season ending injuries to key players haven't helped the Jets, especially to awesome cornerback Darrelle Revis & the hugely talented, although troublesome, wide receiver Santonio Holmes - they were the team's best players by far on pass defense & offense respectively & their loss has been acute.

The Cardinals started off the season brightly with good defense & doing just about enough on offense but injuries to their quarterbacks & general poor play from them has blighted their season & their lack of passing threat has also made it difficult to run the ball either with them ranking 30th in rushing yards. Rookie passer Ryan Lindley looks like he'll start his 2nd game this Sunday even after throwing 4 interceptions & no touchdowns against the Rams last week, Kevin Kolb is still unfit & the season's starting QB John Skelton is now completely out of favour & rightly so. Their running backs haven't stepped up to help the passers either although injury has again affected them with Beanie Wells & Ryan Williams both having prolonged periods out, LaRod Stephens-Howling has had most of the carries but only has 3.4 yards per attempt whilst they've seemed reluctant to use 1st year back William Powell even though he's done well when seen. Beanie Wells made his return last week & that could help them out a bit, they need their running game to get going against this defense that is poor at run blocking especially with their best receiver Andre Roberts struggling with injury.

This is an uninspiring game between two struggling sides but the Jets do have a semblance of hope with their remaining 5 games (including this one) against mediocre teams & although it would be close to a miracle they could still, just about, make the playoffs - we don't think they will though! With poor offenses but decent pass defenses this looks set to be a low scoring affair & the points total is at just 37 points, we think it'll go below even that though with the 31st & 22nd highest scorers squaring off.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Texans continue to roll & have now got a record of 10 wins & one loss & even though their last two victories have come with overtime wins they face much more accommodating opponents in the Tennessee Titans this week.

(Andre Johnson is starting to become a dominant receiver again for the Texans)

We won't spend long previewing this one: we think the Texans are the best side in the league & are delighted our antepost bets sit with them to win the Super Bowl, their offense has begun to really fire in the past couple of weeks & they come up against the Titans defense that are giving up an average of 30.5 points per game - this could be a bloodbath! 9 of Houston's 10 victories have come by 6 points or more which is the handicap line in this one, back the Texans to rout Tennessee (as they did earlier in the season 38-14) with a -6 point handicap & confirm their playoff place.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets to be under 37 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Tennessee Titans with -6 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 9 - Forte & Foster can Feast on awful rushing defenses

After an unpredictable start the NFL season is starting to settle down & some of the bigger boys are exerting control over their respective divisions & in their games too, we're siding with some of the potential Super Bowl contenders this week in favourable match-ups.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans

We tipped up the Bears to gain 10 or more regular season wins in our season preview & they have made the most of the weak opponents they've faced to post a 6&1 record so far, they come up against the Tennessee Titans here who are 3&5 & just horrible on the defensive side of the football.

(Matt Forte looks tailor-made for this game against the Titans)

This is basically a great match-up for the Bears as the Titans are severely limited when their running back Chris Johnson doesn't manage to break off big runs  it seems unlikely he'll thrive in this one as the Bears rank 1st in rushing yards given up. The Titans had given their starting quarterback job to youngster Jake Locker but have had to revert to Plan B  stick 37 year old veteran Matt Hasselbeck back in after Locker was injured, Hasselbaeck has been good in the past but he's merely serviceable now & he'll ave a tough time escaping Julius Peppers & Harry Melton who've combined for 10.5 sacks for the Bears so far this year.

The Titans rank 29th overall in both passing & rushing yards given up & the Bears' star offensive player Matt Forte looks like having a huge game as he's so proficient at running & also receiving out of the backfield. Chicago struggled for a long time against Carolina last week but rallied impressively with a last minute field goal after trailing 19-7 going into the 4th quarter, they will be determined to show their true colours here - the Panthers are an unpredictable side anyway so we're not too concerned with the narrow victory. We think the Bears weakness at quarterback (Jay Cutler is way off being elite) limit their chances for a Super Bowl win this year but they should have more than enough to cover the -3.5 point handicap here, all but one of their wins have been by more than that & all 5 of Tennessee's losses have also been by more than 3 points.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

The Texans bounced back after unimpressive displays against the Jets & Packers to absolutely thrash the Baltimore Ravens 43-13 before heading off for their bye week & they get a present delivered to their doorstep here as the Buffalo Bills come to town for a game they look highly unsuited for. The Texans have only tasted defeat once this year & they showed they didn't like it in their next game so the Bills face an uphill struggle to get anything out of this one.

(Arian Foster could be saying thank you a lot against the Bills' defense)

The Texans have probably the best running back around in Arian Foster & they rank 6th overall in the league so far in terms of rushing yards per game but that ranking looks likely to improve after this one as the Bills cannot stop teams from running all over them. The Bills are giving up a huge 176.9 yards rushing per game & the moves they made in the Summer (including for the Texans' star defensive end Mario Williams) have not borne the rewards they hoped for. The Bills' main offensive weapons themselves are their running back duo of Fred Jackson & C.J.Spiller, with Spiller exploding into action when given the chance this year, the problem here is that they run into the Texans' defense which ranks 3rd against the run limiting their chances of impressing here.

The Bills hopes in this one surely come down to whether passer Ryan Fitzpatrick can have a stormer & to give him credit he's thrown for a lot of TDs this year (15) although they don't tend to go to the air very often which is understandable with their mediocre receivers. As well as the Bill's offensive line have looked after Fitzpatrick so far it will be a huge test to stop JJ Watt getting to him as the young Houston defender has been in unbelievable form this year with 9.5 sacks & plenty of pass blocks too. The Texans are rightly noted for their running game but they have weapons when passing too with tight end Owen Daniels coming to the fore recently & two time NFL receiving yards leader Andre Johnson has looked better in his past two games with decent yardage & receptions after not getting targeted too often (or dropping passes when he was) in weeks 2-5. Matt Schaub is an excellent decision maker at the quarterback position & he's only thrown 4 interceptions in 2012 so it looks hard for the Bills to make up for the yards they'll give up defensively by creating turnovers. Houston have already won 4 games this year by 20 or more points so the -10 points they give up in this one doesn't look an insurmountable task, back them to do it as they come off a bye week nice & fresh against a Bills team there for the taking.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to beat Tennessee Titans with -3.5 point handicap at Evens (Skybet)
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills with -10 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 7 - Raiders of the Lost Jags

It was a pretty tough week for NFL bettors in week 6 as 10 underdog sides won out & we didn't far at all well here either with Indianapolis looking as bad as they did last year up against the Jets & Cincinnati underperforming in Cleveland. We'll have another got though & try to bring some of our Saturday (3 form 3 fottball/soccer picks) form to the game as we take a look at a couple of games featuring this year's lesser lights.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders

In the game at the O.co Coliseum in Oakland the Raiders host the Jaguars in a battle of teams with just one win each from 5 games, clearly neither side is great but there are reasons to believe the home side Raiders are superior to the Jags.

(Darrius Heyward-Bey should be fit & ready to take the Jags apart)

Jacksonville are ranking stone last in offensive yards (241.2) & points (13) per game & they just don't have the players at skill positions to be able to pass the ball at all effectively, in the modern day, high scoring, passing NFL they are sorely lacking even with one of the best running backs around in Maurice Jones-Drew. At quarterback they have Blaine Gabbert who has a laughable career passer rating of just 67.5 & has a league low 5.5 yards per pass this year, he's got a promising rookie in Justin Blackmon to pass to plus we like Laurent Robinson but they are hardly a great set of receivers plus he just doesn't have the skills regardless of the targets. In 2011 the Jags' saving grace was that they were pretty tough defensively (ranking 6th overall) but that isn't the case this year as they rank a lowly 29th & have been giving up 163 yards per game on the ground, that isn't a good sign as they come up against one of the better backs around in Darren McFadden.

Oakland nearly came up with a huge result last week as they ended up only losing by 3 points against the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons & that bodes well in this game if they can take the momentum gained in the Atlanta Dome & use it in front of their own fans. The Raiders have actually been pretty poor at running the ball this year thanks to their poor defensive blocking meaning that Darren McFadden gets hit earlier in his runs than any other back, coming up against the Jaguars & their poor run defense might be just the cure for that problem though. Quarterback Carson Palmer has been having a pretty solid year & is averaging 286.5 yards through the air with his pretty good wide receiver corps that has been bolstered by Derek Hagan who rejoined after being with Oakland for the first part of last season. Tight end Brandon Myers has stepped up all of a sudden & leads the team in receiving yards with 290, his previous best for a whole season was just 151 yards so he's added another option, they've also got Denarius Moore & Darrius Heyward-Bey (who's been struggling with injury but should be fully fit here) & their options far outweigh Jacksonville's.

Oakland are excellent on special teams & can rely on Sebastian Janikowski to kick field goals from anywhere inside of 65 yards, even though they're 1&5 they should have too much for Jacksonville, however rather than take the handicap of -6 points we far prefer the half time/full time bet of Oakland/Oakland at odds of 21/20, they can control the game from beginning to end.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

(The Buffalo Bills' C.J. Spiller could be in for another big day running the football)

The Titans & Bills are two sides with plenty of problems yet the Bills somehow find themselves with a .500 record thanks to a forgiving schedule that has seen them beat the lowly Browns & Chiefs plus run into the Cardinals just as they faced a quarterback crisis. Tennesee have been stuffed out of sight 4 times but come up with narrow 3 point wins against Detroit (in overtime) & Pittsburgh (last week when the Steelers were inconvenienced by being the away side for the Thursday night game). It hardly makes this game an inspiring one but there is a good bet to be had here.

The total points line for this game is set at 46.5 & from their 12 games combined these two sides have seen 47 or more points on 9 of those 12 occasions. The Titans are giving up a league worst average of 34 points per game & the Bills are giving up the second most with 32 per game, with two such poor defenses this is set to be a high scoring free for all. The Bills just can't stop the run & although the Titans are averaging a paltry 70.2 yards rushing per game this could be just the tonic for their star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson who has struggled to replicate his incredible form from 2 & 3 seasons ago. The Bills have one of the league's most potent rushing attacks with Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller always ready to unload on opposition defenses & they should see plenty of joy against the Titans, if they get into the red zone they should be able to push ahead & convert for touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. Neither side is great but Buffalo are deserving favourites, we still like the over 46.5 total points bet as the best value option here & odds of 5/6 for C.J. Spiller to score a TD at anytime also look on the big side - he's got touchdowns in 4 of his 6 games & Tennessee struggle to stop anything.

Selections:
Oakland Raiders to beat Jacksonville Jaguars Half time/Full time at 21/20 (BlueSquare & 888Sport)
Over 46.5 points in Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills game at 10/11 (General)
C.J. Spiller to score a touchdown at anytime at 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

Ravens at Eagles - Lots of Squawking & not much Scoring

We were disappointed midweek as the Bears v Packers game was a bit of a damp squib with both teams offensive lines seeming to be made of paper - that will be a feature to watch for the rest of the year because if hey can't protect their passers neither side can be considered for the Super Bowl. We're back this weekend with picks from three games including a potential defensive showcase as the Ravens travel to the Eagles & we've some touchdown scorer bets that seem a little overpriced with certain bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

When we started looking at this weekend's games we'd already pinpointed the Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles as potentially the lowest scoring game of the week as two scary defenses come up against each other so we were surprised to see the total points line set at a large 46.5 points. Last year the Eagles had just 6 games go over the 46 points set here & the Ravens had just 4 of their 18 games (inc playoffs) go over, so from 34 games played just 10 went over & it seems amazing the line is so high.

(Coach Andy Reid will look to stop the Ravens' offense - cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be key)

Baltimore got a load of points on the board against Cincinnati on Monday night but the Bengals defense didn't seem to be able to adapt after setting up to stop Ray Rice running & made it too easy for Joe Flacco to use his arm strength & find targets down the field, it will almost certainly not be that easy to do the same against the Eagles. Philadelphia have two ace defensive ends in Trent Cole & Jason Babin who will ensure the pass rush against Flacco is strong & if he does get the ball away their corner backs Nnamdi Asomugha & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are amongst the best around & should give receivers Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin problems. Philadelphia weren't at their best last week with Michael Vick throwing 4 interceptions & they're arguably coming up against the best defense in the league with the Ravens, they won't have to deal with the threat of Terrell Suggs in the pass rush but Baltimore still looked stifling without him.

We can see both teams looking to their star running backs in Ray Rice & LeSean McCoy as they try to avoid turnovers & that should mean that plenty of time runs off the clock, this could end up coming down to a field goal & the under 46.5 points must be backed - the price for this should be closer to 1/2 than 10/11.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints travel up to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Pathers with both teams having suffered losses when favourites to win last week. The Saints were relatively well fancied for a Super Bowl push this year & the 2009 season champions were handed a boost when their players suspended for their part in the 'Bountygate' scandal were cleared to play, Carolina meanwhile were fancied by no one even with their impressive young quarterback Cam Newton.

New Orleans will undoubtedly be disappointed to have lost to the Redskins last week especially as they are usually unbeatable at home but Washington are an outfit on the up with a good defense, an emerging talent at running back in Alfred Morris & an exceptional talent in rookie passer Robert Griffin III. The Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay was more worrying as the Buccaneers lost their last 10 games last year & were rarely even getting close to the opposition yet they limited the Panthers to just two scores (touchdown & field goal) as Carolina went down 16-10. The Panthers are just a bit too one-dimensional as just about everything falls on Cam Newton's shoulders, as well as passing for 4,051 yards last year he also added another 706 on the ground & if he doesn't play well they have little chance.

(Lance Moore should score at some point against a weak Panthers defense)

We feel the Saints are being a little underrated here considering that Drew Brees threw for 346 yards last week & the Panthers ranked just 28th against the pass in 2011, he's got every opportunity to pick them apart here & put huge numbers on the board & taking New Orleans with a -2.5 point handicap looks a very sound bet. A favourite target of Drew Brees' is Lance Moore & he looks a reasonable price at 8/5 to score anytime (8 TDs each of last two years) & 12/1 to score the first touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

We were pleased to see the San Diego Chargers get their season off to a good start with a win away at Oakland, that was a tough fixture & they'll find it considerably easier when they host the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers were certainly helped by some atrocious special teams play from the Raiders but they were pretty resolute defensively & Philip Rivers looked accurate & efficient after a wobbly 2011 season, it helps that he was so well protected & was sacked just once last week.

(Philip Rivers & Antonio Gates can combine to winning effect for the Chargers)

Both of these teams seem to have problems running the ball with the Titans' star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson being wildly inconsistent & again last week he was ridiculously unproductive on the ground with just 4 yards from 11 carries, he does offer a threat in the receiving game though & his ability to break monster runs can't be ignored. The Chargers are really struggling without Ryan Mathews (injury) & he looks set to miss this one again, they only managed 32 rushing yards last week but we feel they have the better quarterback & set of receivers so it shouldn't hurt them so much here. We like the Titans' rookie receiver Kendall Wright but he might need a few more games to be seen to full effect & Nate Washington is capable of making huge plays, they will however struggle until Kenny Britt gets back to fitness, he looks like playing here but could be eased back in. The Chargers will use back Ronnie Brown for plenty of short passes & have an ace tight end in Antonio Gates plus Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal all as dependable receivers.

We think the Chargers' defense will give young quarterback Jake Locker plenty to worry about with Donald Butler coming after him & Eric Weddle waiting in the backfield to mop up any misplaced passes. The Chargers should take advantage of this being a home fixture & overcome a -6.5 point handicap to win by a touchdown or more. Rivers' most likely target when he gets around the end zone is Antonio Gates & the Evens that he gets a touchdown with Skybet looks generous especially as he's 2/9 with Paddy Power!

Selections:
Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles to be under 46.5 points at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints to beat Carolina Panthers with -2.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Lance Moore to score first touchdown at 12/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 8/5 (Bet365) Saints v Panthers
San Diego Chargers to beat Tennessee Titans with a -6.5 point handicap (General)
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (SkyBet)

NFL Week 15 - Time's up for Tebow

Just 3 games left before the playoffs & the cream has risen to the top in just about every division, there's still plenty to play for & some big gamesin the coming weeks, we've got this round covered & hope to improve on a sorry bunch of picks last week. We went for under 38.5 total points in both the Texans v Bengals & 49ers v Cardinals games only for there to be 39 & 40 points in each respective game, that's frustrating but we can bounce back with some big winners this week & we think we've got some ace ones.

It's official, the Indianapolis Colts are the worst team in the league by a mile, they've lost all 13 games so far & have conceded the most points in the league to leave them with a league worst points difference (between what they've scored v opponents) of -198, without Peyton Manning they are dire so it makes little sense why the very decent Tennessee Titans are only 1 touchdown favourites to beat them. The Colts have been beaten by at least 7 points in their last 8 games & have only covered that spread in 2 games all season, in weeks 3 & 5, the Titans beat them 27-10 in the reverse fixture & have built up a respectable 7&6 record - it's not spectacular but it's light years ahead of Indianapolis.

(Chris Jonson can pay back a little bit of his $53m contract by scoring first against the Colts)

The Titans defense ranks 6th best in points conceded per game & their signing of Matt Hasselbeck from the Seahawks has worked out very nicely with him playing some quality football, unfortunately he damaged his hamstring in last week's game against the Saints & is doubtful here meaning that rookie Jake Locker may well be called upon. Obviously replacing your quarterback isn't ideal but Locker was the 8th pick overall in this year's draft & before his somewhat disappointing senior season in college was being predicted as a 1st overall pick so he has talent, he's seen a little action this year & already thrown 3 touchdowns & importantly no interceptions, his completion rate isn't great but if he doesn't give turnovers he's doing fine. The Titans should have the players to get the yards they need on the ground anyway with the highest earning running back in the league Chris Johnson looking to get some huge yards against the NFL's 3rd worst rushing defense. There's no doubt Johnson has been disappointing this year & he was poor against New Orleans last week but in the two games before he ran for 190 & 153 yards against the Buccaneers & Bills, they're bad defending the run & it seems he likes to bully these poorer sides, we think at 7/2 Johnson is a decent price to score the first TD. The Colts have problems all over the place, they rank 30th in sacks made, last in interceptions made, don't score points & now they've benched the season's starting QB Curtis Painter & are using perennial backup Dan Orlovsky as their passer, he's unlikely to see much joy in this one but he won't be as bad as their running game which is led by the incredibly ordinary Donald Brown. We can't see anything other than the Titans winning by at least a touchdown & should be backed with -6.5 points on the handicap, yes the Colts are at home & yes they will be desperate not to go to 0&14 but there's a reason they've lost every game so far - they are trash!

 (There won't be another miracle for Tim Tebow in this one against the Patriots)

Elsewhere the New England Patriots will have to overcome the divine inspiration that continues to guide the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos to victory in the most unlikely circumstances week after week but we think they can do it by scoring points & forcing the Broncos to use the passing game, which is where they will crumble. The Broncos have won their last 6 games even though they scored over 20 points in just 2 of them & have won their last 4 games after trailing in the last 2 minutes of the game, often Tebow & the whole offense has been dreadful in the 1st half of games but the defense has been good enough all year to keep things close enough for them to drag it out of the fire. The problem for Denver here is that they are dealing with a truly elite offense in the Patriots & if they don't start firing until late on New England will already be out of reach, the Broncos have the most rushing yards & 2nd least passing but the Pats' weakness is in their secondary against the pass & Tebow & his receivers won't be good enough to expose it. Tebow's only completing 48.5% of his passes this year & his receivers are pretty average, Eric Decker is respectable but they miss Brandon Lloyd who was traded to the Rams, that means even when they want to throw the targets aren't there & it'll prove costly here.

(The phenomenal Rob Gronkowski & the rest of the Patriot's passing game can find success at Mile High against the Broncos)

The Patriots have been on fire in the passing game having racked up 30+ points in 9 of their 13 games & Brady has found tight end Rob Gronkowski 16 times in the end zone, that's very nearly half of the 33 touchdowns Brady has thrown yet receiver Wes Welker is the league's receiving leader with 100 receptions & 1,339 yards. Brady can also go to other tight end Aaron Hernandez & deep threat Deion Branch, he also has league veteran Chad Ochocinco if he needs him & it all means that they put up points wherever they are. Brady will need to be wary of the great pass rushers the Broncos have but he has pretty good protection & has such a quick release of the ball he's only been sacked 22 times all season which is excellent for such a passing team.. They were burned for 170 rushing yards against the Redskins last week but that was their worst of the season & Brady will put up big enough numbers again for the Patriots to win by more than 7.5 points to bring up the handicap bet at 10/11.

Selections:
Tennessee Titans to beat Indianapolis Colts with -6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (general)
Chris Johnson to score first Touchdown at 7/2 (general) in Titans v Colts game
New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 10/11 (general)