NFL Week 13 - Cardinals & Jets won't get up to speed

We're right at the business end of the regular season now with wins being enough to clinch divisions & playoff places whilst losses could mean the end of competitive football for some teams for another season. We're looking at two games as we look for more profit in the NFL season before the playoffs get underway.

With the apparent murder-suicide by Kansas City linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/01/sports/football/01reuters-nfl-chiefs-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss it throws the Panthers @ Chiefs game into doubt & means our selections are irrelevant.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs

More mediocrity! As we look at a game with two teams with just 4 wins from 22 games this season between them! The 3&8 Panthers are travelling to the 1&10 league worst Kansas City Chiefs in a game where both sides are striving to add a semblance of respectability to their season.

(Brandon LaFell is a dangerous deep threat for the Panthers)

The Panthers have had a pretty tough schedule & looking back at the teams they've lost to you'd probably only say that the loss in week 5 when at home to the poor travelling Seahawks was a bad one, they took red hot Tampa Bay to overtime two weeks ago & then beat down the Eagles (like most sides do at the moment) last week with star player Cam Newton starting to get his confidence back. Carolina have started to look better in recent weeks & have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 & even though winning only 2 they went down by just a single point to a strong Chicago Bears side in that sequence too.

The Chiefs have only scored 20+ points three times all season & rank stone last in points gained per game with just 14.6 & have fared pretty badly in points given up at 27.4 per game to rank 28th in the NFL. Atrocious quarterback play has been the Chiefs' downfall with Matt Cassel & (Not Tom) Brady Quinn combining for a grand total of 6 touchdowns between them & 16 interceptions thrown - it looks like Mr Quinn is getting the start here. Jamaal Charles has been great at tailback after returning from injury  in the last 3 weeks has run for 100, 87 & 107 yards but it just isn't enough to cover for the quarterback play that has meant they've had 21 more turnovers than their opponents over the season. They've been decent on pass defense & we've a lot of love for their cornerback Brandon Flowers but their rush defense hasn't been up to scratch & they'll struggle to stop Cam Newton taking off when he scrambles.

Carolina still need their running backs Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams to step up & help Cam Newton if they're going to become a more complete offensive unit but regardless they will have enough to trounce the Chiefs here & can easily beat them by more than the 3 points required on the point spread.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets

The Cardinals haven't won a game since week 4 meaning they're on a 7 game losing streak whilst the Jets have cobbled together an identical 4&7 record but with their wins more sporadic - they have at times looked laughable & some of their play last week against the Patriots was simply appalling.

(Not Mark Sanchez's finest moment on the football field)

New York would have been particularly upset last week with the way the team simply went awol during the 2nd quarter & gave up 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady & New England, the Jets don't have enough weapons on offense to allow teams easy points. Mark Sanchez continues to be one of the least convincing starting quarterbacks in the league & he's thrown just 12 touchdowns on the year as the Jets rank 28th in passing yards. The Jets have in recent years prided themselves on their stout defense which has helped cover up their offensive flaws but this year they're giving up an average of 26.4 points a game to rank 26th & they've been awful against the run ranking 30th with over 140 yards per game against them. Season ending injuries to key players haven't helped the Jets, especially to awesome cornerback Darrelle Revis & the hugely talented, although troublesome, wide receiver Santonio Holmes - they were the team's best players by far on pass defense & offense respectively & their loss has been acute.

The Cardinals started off the season brightly with good defense & doing just about enough on offense but injuries to their quarterbacks & general poor play from them has blighted their season & their lack of passing threat has also made it difficult to run the ball either with them ranking 30th in rushing yards. Rookie passer Ryan Lindley looks like he'll start his 2nd game this Sunday even after throwing 4 interceptions & no touchdowns against the Rams last week, Kevin Kolb is still unfit & the season's starting QB John Skelton is now completely out of favour & rightly so. Their running backs haven't stepped up to help the passers either although injury has again affected them with Beanie Wells & Ryan Williams both having prolonged periods out, LaRod Stephens-Howling has had most of the carries but only has 3.4 yards per attempt whilst they've seemed reluctant to use 1st year back William Powell even though he's done well when seen. Beanie Wells made his return last week & that could help them out a bit, they need their running game to get going against this defense that is poor at run blocking especially with their best receiver Andre Roberts struggling with injury.

This is an uninspiring game between two struggling sides but the Jets do have a semblance of hope with their remaining 5 games (including this one) against mediocre teams & although it would be close to a miracle they could still, just about, make the playoffs - we don't think they will though! With poor offenses but decent pass defenses this looks set to be a low scoring affair & the points total is at just 37 points, we think it'll go below even that though with the 31st & 22nd highest scorers squaring off.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Texans continue to roll & have now got a record of 10 wins & one loss & even though their last two victories have come with overtime wins they face much more accommodating opponents in the Tennessee Titans this week.

(Andre Johnson is starting to become a dominant receiver again for the Texans)

We won't spend long previewing this one: we think the Texans are the best side in the league & are delighted our antepost bets sit with them to win the Super Bowl, their offense has begun to really fire in the past couple of weeks & they come up against the Titans defense that are giving up an average of 30.5 points per game - this could be a bloodbath! 9 of Houston's 10 victories have come by 6 points or more which is the handicap line in this one, back the Texans to rout Tennessee (as they did earlier in the season 38-14) with a -6 point handicap & confirm their playoff place.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets to be under 37 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Tennessee Titans with -6 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 6 - Bengals to beat up Browns

We're still smarting after the Texans couldn't beat the Jets by 9 points or more on Monday night even with a performance that should have been just enough but anyway we're back with selections for Sunday as we look to bounce back. The season long bets of the Texans for the Super Bowl & the 49ers to win the NFC are still looking good & there should be plenty of opportunities for nice bets between now & the post season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

In the first game we're taking a look at we have a divisional rivalry as the AFC North sees Cincinnati travel to take on the NFL's only team without a win in 2012, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland are a pretty poor side as evidenced by their record this year & just 4 wins, against weak sides, last year & they've already lost to the Bengals this time around just 4 games ago with Cincinnati prevailing 37-24.

(A stupendous catch - all in a day's work for A.J. Green)

The Browns have rookies playing at their two key skill positions on offense with Brandon Weeden at qyarterback & Trent Richardson at tailback, both were selected in the first round of the draft but Richardson has started at lot better than Weeden. Brandon Weeden is stone last in the quarterback ratings this year at a lowly 64.5 & although he had his best display when facing the Bengals (2 TDs & no interceptions) he can't be relied upon when the pressure's on. Rookie passers struggling is nothing new & it is all a learning curve for Weeden, the Browns will try to take the pressure off by running the ball with Richardson & although he's done reasonably their other backs have offered next to nothing. With the Brown's pretty lightweight offense they've needed their defense to step up but that side of the game has been weak too, ranking 29th in yards given up & they don't really have any defensive stars other thancornerback Joe Haden who returns this week from suspension.

The Browns need Haden back  because he'll be up against one of the very best receivers around in the Bengals' A.J. Green, Green already has 4 touchdowns & is pushing 100 receiving yards a game as he continues to form a fine partnership with passer Andy Dalton. In contrast to Brandon Weeden, Dalton is having a fine season & has thrown 9 strikes to 6 picks & is gaining an impressive average of 8 yards per pass - he'll fancy himself to have more success in this one. The Bengals are just average defensively & they don't tend to make explosive plays (they've gained just one interception all season) but average means not bad & they have little to fear today. We think the Bengals should be hotter favourites than they are & odds of 10/13 for them to pick up the win are fair indeed even though playing on the road.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

In this game we again like the look of the road team as the Colts travel to take on the New York Jets who put up a spirited but ultimately fruitless display against the Texans on Monday night. Last week while the Jets were being beaten, Indianapolis managed to gain a win over one of the league's heavyweights in the Green Bay Packers & number one draft pick Andrew Luck had a great game as he continues to look much more experienced than the rookie he is.

(Andrew Luck can continue to impress against the weakened Jets)

Although the Jets did only lose by 6 to maybe the best team in the league on Monday that was in part thanks to a 100 yard kick return & those don't come around too often, it also remains to be seen whether they can get themselves up for consecutive games as they've been abysmal at times. The Jets' injury problems remain & Mark Sanchez still looks a suspect passer & their running game continues to be ineffective with their number one runnig back Shonn Greene averagin just 2.9 yards per attempt. Indianapolis will be sending their star defender Dwight Freeney after Sanchez making it even more likely he'll chuck some passes up to be intercepted, Freeney was injured in week one & made a real difference on his return last week.

The Colts have been decent offensively with Luck's passing helping them rank 10th overall in yards gained & 6th in passing yards - he can also take off on the ground making him a very dangerous player & it means he's a good compliment to rusher Donald Brown who has a decent average yards per carry of 4.0. Reggie Wayne has been having a monstrous season with 506 receiving yards in just the 4 games & he'll look to beat Rodgers-Cromartie this week just like every other cornerback he's come up against. Other than their loss to Jacksonville the Colts have performed well considering they gained just two wins last year & they are underrated today, backing them with a useful 3.5 point lead on the handicap looks the way to go.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Cleveland Browns at 10/13 (Skybet & Paddy Power)
Indianapolis Colts to beat New York Jets with +3.5 points on handicap at 5/6 (Various)

Monday Night Football - Texans to run all over Jets

With no English football on this Monday that means we can concentrate on the Houston Texans' game in New York against the hapless Jets, the Jets are struggling badly & things don't get too much tougher than running up against the Super Bowl favourites.

Houston Texans @ New York Jets

(Bad times for the Jets' Mark Sanchez who has the spectre of being replaced by Tim Tebow looming)

New York have their best defensive & offensive players out injured with dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis out meaning it's much easier to pass against them & their star receiver Santonio Holmes out meaning it becomes even harder than usual for them to pass themselves. We've always felt that Mark Sanchez is lucky to be a NFL starter & the Jets' quarterback is really struggling at the moment & coming up against the top ranked defense in yards & pointss given up isn't going to make things any easier & the inevitable calls for Tim Tebow to replace him continue to grow louder. Even their young up & coming receiver Stephen Hill is a doubt for this game & it's hard to see how they can hurt Houston.

The Jets' traditional strength over the last few years has been their defense but even that isn't doing the job this year & their big problem here is that they don't appear to be able to stop the run in particular ranking 31st in yards given up - that spells huge trouble against the Texans. Houston have maybe the most talented running back in the league in Arian Foster & he's backed up by Ben Tate who would be a feature running back for most other teams, the two of them should have a lot of fun in this one & could end up with multiple touchdowns between them. At quarterback for the Texans Matt Schaub has been efficiency personified with 7 touchdowns to just one interception & a highly respectable pass completion rate of 67%, with Schaub getting fitter & fitter with every game after a big injury they are potentially a scary offensive unit.

(Andre Johnson could be celebrating some big numbers at the end of this one)

The Jets got blown away by the visiting 49ers last week losing 34-0 & the Texans are better than San Francisco offensively so they should easily cover the -8 point handicap. We can see this being a big win for Houston & in addition to backing them to cover the 8 points we advise backing a Texans' winning margin of 19-24 points at 15/2 & 25-30 points at 12/1 at Betfred.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat New York Jets with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to win by 19-24 points at 15/2 & 25-30 points at 12/1 (Betfred)

Thursday Night NFL - Broncos to frustrate unconvincing Jets

Week 11 in the NFL begins with a game between the New York Jets & the resurgent Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Denver, the Jets are coming off a heavy home defeat to their main rivals the Patriots whilst Denver have won 3 of their last 4 with Tim Tebow now starting at quarterback after winning just 1 of their first 5 games. This should prove to be an interesting & different typ of game in what has become a pass dominated league with both sides being at their best with the running game.

(Lance Ball can make a case for the Broncos No 1. Running Back position with a big game against the Jets)

The Broncos managed to win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs even though they only completed two (yes just TWO) passes in the entire game & attempted just 8 in total, it goes to show the pragmatism of the coaching staff who have clearly realised, as has everybody else, Tim Tebow's weakness in the passing game. By placing Tebow in an option offense, that he so successfully mastered in college football, it gives him the best opportunity to get wins for the team & because it is s rarely seen in the professional game it may take some time for opposition defenses & coaching schemes to shut it down. The Broncos really made it clear that their plan was to focus on the run for the rest of the season when trading away the 2010 leading receiver in yards in Brandon Lloyd a month ago but Eric Decker has posted respectable yardage totals since even though he's had relatively few catches. Decker's averaging a very healthy 13.6 yards per catch & had a 56 yard touchdown for his only reception against Kansas City, his problem will be that now identified as Denver's leading receiver the Jets will place dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis covering him & he will become another receiver that gets lost on 'Revis Island'. The Broncos lost running back Knowshon Moreno for the season on Sunday & Willis McGahee also sat out the rest of the game after 4 carries but 3rd string back Lance Ball really stepped up carrying the ball 30 times for 96 yards, he will be looking to push for a starting position with another big night here. McGahee may well be back for the game but is still listed as questionable & it is safe to assume they won't want him running into walls of Jets players anyway so if they get down to the Jets goal line either Tebow himself or Ball are likely to try to run it in & backing Lance Ball at 6/4 to score the 1st touchdown at 12/1 & anytime at 6/4 looks worth an investment.

(The Jets' Darelle Revis (no.24) is one of the league's dominant cornerbacks)

The Jets were starting to look like they were getting their game together before the loss to the Patriots after decent wins against Miami, San Diego & Buffalo but tehy weren't the toughest sides & their weaknesses really showed against New England. Mark Sanchez really fails to impress as a quarterback as far as we're concerned not getting close to breaking the 60% pass completion rate in any of his season's so far, he has very decent receivers in Santonio Holmes & Plaxico Burress (in his comeback season after shooting himself in the leg & completing jail time) but Sanchez doesn't find them often enough with too many passes being overthrown. The Jets are basically a rushing team but their rush offense hasn't been able to get it going this year & are ranked 24th, they are ranked just 20th in passing yards also & are going to miss 2nd string back LaDainian Tomlinson here who provides an excellent threat in short yardage situations. The Jets will need to make the most of their possessions as the Broncos will eat up a lot of clock with the running game but with LT out they may struggle to convert 3rd downs & end up punting more often than they'd like. The Jets defense is pretty good, partly because they shut down a team's lead receiver with Revis & then force teams reliant on that one receiver to go to the run, thus making them predictable - that won't work here as the Broncos want to run it & pretty much only run it right from the start & this could be a frustrating night for Rex Ryan & his Jets on both sides of the ball.

The New York Jets are hot favourites for this one & they could win but it isn't easy to travel up to Denver, a mile above sea level & the Denver fans will be red hot for this one after getting the man they wanted at quarterback, Sanchez & his offense will have to try to cope with the noise & make the most of the opportunities they get & at best odds of 4/11 they offer no value at all. With the clock set to be kept running for long periods of time thanks to the running game that means that the game is likely to be low scoring meaning that no team should win by a large margin & the Broncos getting +6.5 points on the handicap looks generous & needs to be bet.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat New York Jets with +6.5 points at 10/11 with Sportingbet
Lance Ball to score the 1st touchdown at 12/1 (Boylesports) & to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)