Monday Night Football - Texans to run all over Jets

With no English football on this Monday that means we can concentrate on the Houston Texans' game in New York against the hapless Jets, the Jets are struggling badly & things don't get too much tougher than running up against the Super Bowl favourites.

Houston Texans @ New York Jets

(Bad times for the Jets' Mark Sanchez who has the spectre of being replaced by Tim Tebow looming)

New York have their best defensive & offensive players out injured with dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis out meaning it's much easier to pass against them & their star receiver Santonio Holmes out meaning it becomes even harder than usual for them to pass themselves. We've always felt that Mark Sanchez is lucky to be a NFL starter & the Jets' quarterback is really struggling at the moment & coming up against the top ranked defense in yards & pointss given up isn't going to make things any easier & the inevitable calls for Tim Tebow to replace him continue to grow louder. Even their young up & coming receiver Stephen Hill is a doubt for this game & it's hard to see how they can hurt Houston.

The Jets' traditional strength over the last few years has been their defense but even that isn't doing the job this year & their big problem here is that they don't appear to be able to stop the run in particular ranking 31st in yards given up - that spells huge trouble against the Texans. Houston have maybe the most talented running back in the league in Arian Foster & he's backed up by Ben Tate who would be a feature running back for most other teams, the two of them should have a lot of fun in this one & could end up with multiple touchdowns between them. At quarterback for the Texans Matt Schaub has been efficiency personified with 7 touchdowns to just one interception & a highly respectable pass completion rate of 67%, with Schaub getting fitter & fitter with every game after a big injury they are potentially a scary offensive unit.

(Andre Johnson could be celebrating some big numbers at the end of this one)

The Jets got blown away by the visiting 49ers last week losing 34-0 & the Texans are better than San Francisco offensively so they should easily cover the -8 point handicap. We can see this being a big win for Houston & in addition to backing them to cover the 8 points we advise backing a Texans' winning margin of 19-24 points at 15/2 & 25-30 points at 12/1 at Betfred.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat New York Jets with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to win by 19-24 points at 15/2 & 25-30 points at 12/1 (Betfred)

Super Saints can crush 49ers Super Bowl dream

Last Sunday was horrible for us betting wise as both the Atlanta Falcons & Pittsburgh Steelers woefully underperformed to lose to the Giants & Broncos respectively, as contests though they were exciting games & this weekend should see some quality contests between the 8 teams left with a chance of a Super Bowl ring. We're kicking off with Saturday's games at New England & San Francisco as we try to find an edge to help turn a nice profit.

(Workhorse Frank Gore will have been glad of last week's bye - his running has carried the 49ers offense in 2011)

The day's first game sees a classic offense versus defense matchup as the hugely exciting New Orleans Saints travel to take on the resilient San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. We're normally big fans of great defenses coming out on top of great offenses but we're pretty sweet on the Saints in this one especially now that the season seems to be being dominated by great quarterbacks & you could argue that Drew Brees is the best of the lot with the most yards & touchdown passes this year. The Saints were less than perfect against the Lions last week & trailed at the half but came through with a dominant 2nd half display to win 45-28, the 49ers don't have the offensive weapons of Detroit & it would be surprising if they could get anyway near their total.

 (Jimmy Graham just keeps getting it done & he can score again against San Francisco)

Led by Alex Smith at quarterback the 49ers ranked just 26th in total offense but 4th on defense & lost just  3 times, of course it did help that the were in the awful NFC West meaning 6 of their games were against the lowest of low grade opposition. To be blunt Smith really isn't a very good quarterback but the 49ers realised this & attempted to pass the ball less than anyone apart from the Broncos, that seemed to help Smith who threw just 5 interceptions & 17 touchdowns, instead the bulk of the work has been left to power running back Frank Gore. Gore was handed the ball over 280 times in the year & gained 1,211 yards with 8 TDs, he's an all-action back & willl cause New Orleans defense trouble who concede a very high average of 5 yards a rushing attempt. When they do pass it will be to Michael Crabtree & Vernon Davis, tight end Davis had 6 touchdowns on the year & looks the man to get another in this one at odds of 6/5 to score a TD at anytime he looks a good bet. Their defense is the real star & are particularly good at stopping the run, NaVorro Bowman has been freakishly effective with 143 combined tackles & the rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks. They'll have to be at their best to stop the Saints as they've been unstoppable, they have a pretty good run game but will happily abandon it if it's ineffective & relying on Brees is no bad thing, he'll connect on most passes as usual & will unlikely give up too many chances of an interception. Tight end Jimmy Graham came up good for us last week & can score again at odds of 4/6 to add to the 12 TDs he has for the season. The Saints defense could have some fun too as they blitz the second most in the league, it's the right thing to do here as Alex Smith is a weak link & we think even though they are away they can win this big & should be backed to win with -3.5 points on the handicap at 10/11.

(The Broncos v Patriots - otherwise known as the Tim Tebow show)

In Foxborough the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos & Tebowmania is running wild with everybody talking & writing about him after the Broncos surprise win against the highly fancied Steelers. We'll have our say about Tim Tebow's performnce straight away, he ran the option well as usual but wasn't spectaclar in the running game & we feel that some of his throwing in terms of distance acuracy was particularly poor, throwing passes over heads or into the ground. He was fortunate to come up against a Steelers secondary that didn't appear even remotely capable against the deep threat meaning when he did throw reasonable deep pases the were made & drew big rewards. Tim may as well stick to the same plan here as the Patriots secondary sucks & Demaryius Thomas will be hoping so as he came up with a monstrous 204 receiving yards from just 4 receptions. The Broncos real strength is in their running game which is helpful as Tebow really isn't accurate enough to be relied on, but New England aren't bad against the run & give up a reasonable 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Willis McGahee & Tim Tebow will need to find ways to keep the running game going to keep the ball on their offense & away from the Patriots & top passer Tom Brady.

(Wes Welker is the league's leading receiver yet available at 15/2 to score 1st - get on!)

Brady was awesome as usual during the season, completing nearly 66% of passes & hitting receivers for 39 touchdowns, when he's in the zone it looks impossible for him to throw a bad pass & he has great chemistry with his receivers. The tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski along with wide receiver Wes Welker are Brady's favourite targets & the league leading Welker looks a great price to score first at 15/2, he had the most receiving yards in the league & caught 22 more passes than his nearest challenger - he's a lethal weapon & will be looked to here. The Patriots can run the ball too & although BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get most carries we love to see tiny Danny Woodhead running the ball against guys twice his size, he makes the most of being small to get through gaps & even gets his share of passes. New England hve developed a bad habit of falling behind (by sizeable margins) but then coming back supremely strongly, with the number one seed giving them a bye last week coach Bill Belichick will have tried to solve that problem, the Broncos may not have the offensive capability to take advantage anyway. Last week will have been physically & emotionally draining for the Broncos & we expect New England to dominate from start to finish, back the Patriots to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 30/100 for a real 'like buying money' bet.

Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat San Francisco 49ers with -3.5 points at 10/11 (general)
Vernon Davis to score a Touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Skybet)
Jimmy Graham to score a Touchdown at anytime  at 4/6 (general)

New England to beat Denver Broncos half time/full at 3/10 (Boylesports, Coral & William Hill)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (Paddy Power)

NFL Wildcard Round - Steelers to dispose of Denver

Houston & New Orleans won their games on Saturday as expected & we're now on to the final two wildcard games with Denver hosting Pittsburgh & Atlanta travelling to New York to face the Giants, we think one of the underdogs can win but it shouldn't be Denver unless Tim Tebow really can get some divine intervention going!

(The scene that Steelers fans don't want to see - Roethlisberger on the ground)

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Denver as 5th seeds to face the Broncos as 4th seeds in the AFC, that seeding doesn't really indicate the strength of these sides as Denver only had an 8 & 8 season in the mediocre AFC West whilst the Steelers had a great 12 & 4 season in the AFC's best division the AFC North, the Broncos automatically got seeded higher as tehy won their division. It should be noted that the Broncos have overachieved just by getting to the playoffs, after winning just 1 of their first 5 they turned to unorthodox quarterback Tim Tebow & won 7 of their next 8, often from unlikely positions after trailing with just moments left. Tebow has clearly helped them in clutch situations but it's rarely been through the use of his arm as the team trailed in 31st place in terms of passing yards but led the league in rushing yards, thanks to the quarterback option offense  the excellent back Willis McGahee who was just one yard shy of hitting 1200 on the ground. The Broncos only scored over 20 points in 3 of the 11 games since their bye week & that looks highly unlikely to be increased against the league's best defense, the Steelers are giving up just 14.2 points a game & less than 280 yards of total offense.

(Wide receiver Mike Wallace can continue to star for Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh have stars on both sides of the ball with Troy Polamalu, James Harrison & Brett Keisel standing out on defense & quarterback Ben Roethlisberger teaming up with his talented wide receiver corps on offense including Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders & the evergreen Hines Ward. The Steelers do have problems on offense though as Big Ben is suffering from a sprained ankle & first choice running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the playoffs with a torn ACL. They should be able to cope withour Mendenhall as they have a good backup in the powerful Isaac Redman but they need to keeep Roethlisberger as protected as possible against the Broncos very good pass rush. The real heroes in the Broncos push to the playoffs has been their defense with outstanding rookie linebacker Von Miller & defensive end Elvis Dumervil combining for 20 quaarterback sacks this year. The Steelers really will want to keep Ben as healthy as possible & hope his ankle recuperates as they go through the playoffs, we wouldn't be surprised to see them very aggresive early on in order to establish a commanding lead so they can remove him from the game. Antonio Brown has really started to establish himself in the Steelers' passing game & it wouldn't surprise us to see him get a touchdown but Mike Wallace is their number one at the moment  the 7/1 on him to score the first touchdown looks a nice bet. Denver scored just 3 points against the Chiefs in theirr final regular season game & it was one they were aiming to win, it looks like being an uphill struggle all day & Pittsburgh should be able to comfortably cover the -7.5 point spread on offer at 20/21 with Ladbrokes.

(Atlanta Falcons fans won't be complaining if they see catches like this from Julio Jones)

In the earlier game the Atlanta Falcons take their talented offense to face off against the 2008 Super Bowl winners the New York Giants. The historically strong Giants defense has not done too well this year, ranking only 27th overall & just 29th against the pass & that can largely be put down to some atrocious play against the deep pass, we think that spells trouble against the Falcons who ranked 8th in passing in the regular season & have potent threats in Roddy White & especially Julio Jones when they go down the field. With tight end Tony Gonzalez still hoovering up any short passes & Michael Turner doing it in the running game as well as when he comes out of the backfield the Falcons can move the ball anyway they want. The Falcons  do tend to be much better at home & the Giants are comingoff of two nice wins but it was only 3 weeks ago that they lost to the mediocre at best Washington Redskins & the Cowboys did somewhat implode (as usual) at the end of the season. Passer Eli Manning has carried their offensive game as they rank last in the rush & that isn't good news in the playoffs, having a one note game makes it easy to defend a team & we can't be having the Giants as favourites here. If the Falcons were at home we think they'd be strong favourites with the bookmakers, their away form is a little worrisome but they did win at Detroit earlier in the year which isn't easy & we want to be with the Falcons to beat the Giants at 6/4, in terms of touchdown scorers we think siding with Julio Jones at 9/1 to score the first touchdown is the way to go.

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 20/21 (Ladbrokes)
Mike Wallace to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Steelers v Broncos game
Atlanta Falcons to beat New York Giants at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Julio Jones to score 1st Touchdown at 9/1 (various) in Falcons v Giants game

Double up those touchdown scorers to get massive odds of 79/1

NFL Week 15 - Time's up for Tebow

Just 3 games left before the playoffs & the cream has risen to the top in just about every division, there's still plenty to play for & some big gamesin the coming weeks, we've got this round covered & hope to improve on a sorry bunch of picks last week. We went for under 38.5 total points in both the Texans v Bengals & 49ers v Cardinals games only for there to be 39 & 40 points in each respective game, that's frustrating but we can bounce back with some big winners this week & we think we've got some ace ones.

It's official, the Indianapolis Colts are the worst team in the league by a mile, they've lost all 13 games so far & have conceded the most points in the league to leave them with a league worst points difference (between what they've scored v opponents) of -198, without Peyton Manning they are dire so it makes little sense why the very decent Tennessee Titans are only 1 touchdown favourites to beat them. The Colts have been beaten by at least 7 points in their last 8 games & have only covered that spread in 2 games all season, in weeks 3 & 5, the Titans beat them 27-10 in the reverse fixture & have built up a respectable 7&6 record - it's not spectacular but it's light years ahead of Indianapolis.

(Chris Jonson can pay back a little bit of his $53m contract by scoring first against the Colts)

The Titans defense ranks 6th best in points conceded per game & their signing of Matt Hasselbeck from the Seahawks has worked out very nicely with him playing some quality football, unfortunately he damaged his hamstring in last week's game against the Saints & is doubtful here meaning that rookie Jake Locker may well be called upon. Obviously replacing your quarterback isn't ideal but Locker was the 8th pick overall in this year's draft & before his somewhat disappointing senior season in college was being predicted as a 1st overall pick so he has talent, he's seen a little action this year & already thrown 3 touchdowns & importantly no interceptions, his completion rate isn't great but if he doesn't give turnovers he's doing fine. The Titans should have the players to get the yards they need on the ground anyway with the highest earning running back in the league Chris Johnson looking to get some huge yards against the NFL's 3rd worst rushing defense. There's no doubt Johnson has been disappointing this year & he was poor against New Orleans last week but in the two games before he ran for 190 & 153 yards against the Buccaneers & Bills, they're bad defending the run & it seems he likes to bully these poorer sides, we think at 7/2 Johnson is a decent price to score the first TD. The Colts have problems all over the place, they rank 30th in sacks made, last in interceptions made, don't score points & now they've benched the season's starting QB Curtis Painter & are using perennial backup Dan Orlovsky as their passer, he's unlikely to see much joy in this one but he won't be as bad as their running game which is led by the incredibly ordinary Donald Brown. We can't see anything other than the Titans winning by at least a touchdown & should be backed with -6.5 points on the handicap, yes the Colts are at home & yes they will be desperate not to go to 0&14 but there's a reason they've lost every game so far - they are trash!

 (There won't be another miracle for Tim Tebow in this one against the Patriots)

Elsewhere the New England Patriots will have to overcome the divine inspiration that continues to guide the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos to victory in the most unlikely circumstances week after week but we think they can do it by scoring points & forcing the Broncos to use the passing game, which is where they will crumble. The Broncos have won their last 6 games even though they scored over 20 points in just 2 of them & have won their last 4 games after trailing in the last 2 minutes of the game, often Tebow & the whole offense has been dreadful in the 1st half of games but the defense has been good enough all year to keep things close enough for them to drag it out of the fire. The problem for Denver here is that they are dealing with a truly elite offense in the Patriots & if they don't start firing until late on New England will already be out of reach, the Broncos have the most rushing yards & 2nd least passing but the Pats' weakness is in their secondary against the pass & Tebow & his receivers won't be good enough to expose it. Tebow's only completing 48.5% of his passes this year & his receivers are pretty average, Eric Decker is respectable but they miss Brandon Lloyd who was traded to the Rams, that means even when they want to throw the targets aren't there & it'll prove costly here.

(The phenomenal Rob Gronkowski & the rest of the Patriot's passing game can find success at Mile High against the Broncos)

The Patriots have been on fire in the passing game having racked up 30+ points in 9 of their 13 games & Brady has found tight end Rob Gronkowski 16 times in the end zone, that's very nearly half of the 33 touchdowns Brady has thrown yet receiver Wes Welker is the league's receiving leader with 100 receptions & 1,339 yards. Brady can also go to other tight end Aaron Hernandez & deep threat Deion Branch, he also has league veteran Chad Ochocinco if he needs him & it all means that they put up points wherever they are. Brady will need to be wary of the great pass rushers the Broncos have but he has pretty good protection & has such a quick release of the ball he's only been sacked 22 times all season which is excellent for such a passing team.. They were burned for 170 rushing yards against the Redskins last week but that was their worst of the season & Brady will put up big enough numbers again for the Patriots to win by more than 7.5 points to bring up the handicap bet at 10/11.

Selections:
Tennessee Titans to beat Indianapolis Colts with -6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (general)
Chris Johnson to score first Touchdown at 7/2 (general) in Titans v Colts game
New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 10/11 (general)