Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City come into this game with just one win from 9 games so far & although they showed improvement to hold out until overtime against the Steelers last week this looks a tough ask against the Bengals who bounced back after 4 successive losses to slam the New York Giants 31-13 last Sunday.
(The Bengals' A.J. Green is fast becoming a superstar wide receiver)
The Bengals possess the NFL's best young wide receiver in A.J.Green & him & quarterback Andy Dalton have a great understanding with them combining for at least one touchdown in their last 8 games including 3 touchdown catches of 50+ yards showing the deep threat the Bengals have. A.J. Green stretches the field which means that Andrew Hawkins & tight end Jermaine Gresham tend to find space in the middle of the field although the Bengals' running game hasn't been up to the same standard as their passing. BenJarvus Green-Ellis joined from the Patriots in thee summer & is a perfectly dependable running back in terms of keeping hold of the ball but he is hardly explosive & is averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season. They've been just average defensively this year ranking 19th on passing yards given up & 20th on rushing given up too many points, a positive is how aggressive they've been & they've managed to sack opposing quarterbacks 27 times so far ranking joint 4th.
The Chiefs have been having a miserable season & are the perfect example to hold up when highlighting just how crucial the quarterback position is in the NFL with Matt Cassel & backup Brady Quinn combining to throw just 6 touchdowns to 15 interceptions so far as the Chiefs have limped sorrily along. Jamaal Charles has been smashing into opposition defenses after coming back from injury & the Chiefs rank 4th overall in rushing yards. he running game just hasn't been enough though to back up their weak passing & in both areas they struggle to get the ball into the end zone even when they do move it up the field & rank just 30th in points scored. On defense they've fared reasonably against the pass & we think their cornerback Brandon Flowers is a real talent but they've only come up with 15 sacks rank 23rd against the run. Unlike some teams that can rank statistically poorly but manage to hold teams when they get close to the end zone the Chiefs allow too many touchdowns & are given up 28.4 points a game which looks like trouble when facing what can be a powerful Cincinnati offense. The Bengals are only giving up 3.5 points on the handicap here & that looks an ace bet, especially when you consider they travelled to the Super Bowl champs last week & beat them by 18.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
This game is a NFC South divisional rematch from week one where the Buccaneers prevailed in a low scoring encounter, Tampa Bay are making a push for the playoffs with a 5&4 record so far whilst the Panthers are looking to rescue their season with just two wins, both coming against inconsistent opponents.
(Vincent Jackson has already become a firm favourite for Tampa Bay fans & can score in this one)
Carolina's big problem this year has been the eratic performances of their quarterback Cam Newton who picked up the offensive rookie of the year award last season. 'Super' Cam has thrown 10 picks to 8 touchdowns & he's coughed the ball up for 9 fumbles too & at times has looked moody & far from a team player, it's difficult to ascertain whether that's an accurate assessment but it is problematic as quarterbacks are most effective when taking a leadership position. The Panthers are averaging over 7 points less per game this year than last & have faded back more on offense than the slight improvement they've made on the defensive side of the ball. So much of the Panthers' offense rests on Cam's shoulders because he's also their leading rusher with Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams both having ordinary seasons at tailback. Carolina don't look to have any defensive stars but are performing better as a unit & have improved after giving up a league high 8.4 yards per pass in 2011, bringing that down to 7.2 yards in 2012.
Tampa Bay are a strange team in some respects as on defense they rank 1st against the run but that's because teams know they are so easy to pass against with a weak pass rush & they rank stone last giving up 321.3 yards through the air per game. Even though their defense is clearly weak the Bucs have got themselves a winning record because they have a few key players on offense playing exceptionally well with rookie running back Doug Martin stunning defenses with an average of 95.8 yards per game & he's bagged himself 8 touchdowns so far this year. Young passer Josh Freeman has looked a lot more solid this year after a very wobbly 2011 & that seems to be down to him staying in the pocket a bit more & playing more of a classic quarterback role, it's shown in his touchdowns to interceptions (18-5) compared to last year (22-29), he'll feel that he can hit his targets in this one against the average Carolina defense. Vincent Jackson has joined from San Diego & made an instant impact giving Freeman a big physical target to aim for along with the versatile Mike Williams & the highly dependable tight end Dallas Clark who came in from the Colts. They do struggle to put pressure on opposition quarterbacks & have given up too many points even though they'v been scoring well themselves, in the Bucs' last 5 games we've seen points totals of 48, 63, 53, 74 & 58 - it suggests we could be in for a high scoring one here especially if Cam Newton can take advantage with a little less pressure when passing. The total points line has been set at 47.5 by Betfred for this one & we can see it going way over that if both teams' defenses continue to leak yards & points. In terms of touchdown scorers Vincent Jackson has been going nicely with 6 this year & odds of 8/1 for him to grab the first one look value.
Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3.5 handicap at Evens (Various)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers to total more than 47.5 points at 10/11 (Betfred)
Vincent Jackson to score 1st Touchdown in Tampa Bay v Carolina game at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
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