(Petra Kvitova can gain the second Major win of her career)
We were keen on Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon & the 21 year old Czech really delivered showing none of the nerves she apparently had on receiving the trophy, she's the real up & coming star of women's tennis & can show that with a win here. She should take care of the unseeded but still useful Sara Errani in the quarters & will then face one of the two Russians in either Sharapova or Makarova. Kvitova would be favourite to beat either & we think she'll have a big advantage as it could be a real battle between those two. That would mean a final against either the grunting Victoria Azarenka or crowd favourite Kim Clijsters, neither of them necessarily has the game to really work Kvitova's biggest weakness which is her speed & she'd be odds on if getting there. We're not saying it will be easy but we definitely want to side with a player on th upgrade & already a Grand Slam winner & odds of 7/4 for Kvitova to win look very fair.
In the men's draw it looks likely to be the same old faces in the final four with one semi between rivals Rafa Nadal & Roger Federer already set up & Novak Djokovic & Andy Murray very much expected to deal with inferior opposition in their quarter finals. To be fair it wouldn't be the biggest upset of all time to see David Ferrer get the better of Djokovic, he's very solid & reached the semi final last year but the Serb is a level above & really should progress. The Australian Open was Djokovic's first Grand Slam victory back in 2008 & he followed up with a win last year & the first sign that he was going to have one of the most incredible years in men's tennis history with another two Grand Slam victories. Djokovic's form did drop off at the end of last year, largely as a result of the sheer amount of games he played & maybe taking his foot off the gas but it did at least show him to be beatable & as impressive as he's been he did drop a set against Hewitt in his last game, we don't want to take the short odds of him winning again.
(Is Andy Murray's new coach Ivan Lendl the key to him reaching the top?)
Nadal had a real battle in his quarter against Berdych with the game lasting 4 hours & that should give Federer an advantage over him but in all likelihood their game is going to be tough & tiring physically & emotionally whoever wins. Andy Murray is the outsider of the 4 at 11/2 & it is understandable as he is the one without a Grand Slam title & has to get past Djokovic if he makes the semi but we think he offers the best value by far especially now that he's linked up with Ivan Lendl as his coach. Lendl is an all-time great player with 8 Grand Slams & may be able to give Murray the winning mentality he needs to break through & become the best, already Murray's game is changing & he says he's standing closer to the baseline - that should make him more aggressive & attacking, going out to win rather than not lose. The Brit started a little slowly in the tournament hasn't faced a seeded rival yet but the tournament is a marathon not a sprint & he should be feeling fresh & confident. At the moment Djokovic is better than Murray but their head to head record is close, with the Serb leading 6-4, so Murray certainly wouldn't be a huge underdog if they face off & we'd foresee a tight match. If Murray succeeds in the semi we think he'd beat either of the other two, he has won more games than he's lost against Federer & although Nadal has the better of their meetings Murray came out on top the last time they met, in the Japan Open final. Quite simply Andy Murray has been underrated here in contrast to how he's so often been overrated in the past; he's ready to make the step up & should be backed at 11/2 to win.
Selections:
Petra Kvitova to win Women's Australian Open at 7/4 (General)
Andy Murray to win Men's Australian Open at 11/2 (Boylesports & Stan James)
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