NFL Week 4 - Patriots can Bounce Back against Buffalo Bills

We're now into week 4 of the NFL & there are only three teams left with unbeaten records, we're taking a look at one of those unbeaten sides in the Arizona Cardinals plus two other games as we look for more winning bets.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

In our first game we see two teams with mirror records as the Patriots won their first game before failing in their next two whilst AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills lost their opener before winning twice afterwards, we think they'll end up with identical 2&2 records after this one as the Patriots look to keep up their dominance of the Bills having won 16 of the last 17 games.



(Wes Welker remains the Patriots' top receiver - whatever the reports say)

 

The Bills' success this year has so far come down, pretty much, to the play of running back C.J. Spiller after stepping in for Fred Jackson after injury - he's gained 308 yards & 3 touchdowns as well as another 114 yards receiveing & another TD. Spiller is listed as questionable for this one though & Fred Jackson the same, the Bills were suggesting both could end up playing but it looks like neither will be at full fitness & that could prove costly. The Patriots are also a huge step up in opposition after facing the Chiefs & Browns & shouldn't be so easy to bully, the Bills were handed their asses in week one v the Jets & New England are a substantially better team than them. This should be a much easier assignment for the Patriots after travelling to the Ravens & nearly prevailing & previously running into 2012 surprise team the Arizona Cardinals.

New England have been much more balanced on offense this year, being happy to run the ball with Stevan Ridley & Danny Woodhead but their strength still lies in Tom Brady's passing & we think a monster game could be around the corner. There's been a lot of talk about how Wes Welker may be being phased out a little of the passing game & although Brandon Lloyd has had 6 more receptions Welker still leads the team with 251 receiving yards. Along with Lloyd & Gronkowski plus the emerging Julian Edelman, Welker offers Tom Brady some outstanding passing targets - Welker led the league in receiving yards last year & gained 9 TDs so 10/1 for him to score the first one in this game looks too big to be ignored. New England could win this one by some margin if they get in a rhythm & look to be being underestimated by the bookies after two losses against good sides, take the Patriots on the handicap with them giving up just 3.5 points to the Bills here.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Last week the San Diego Chargers were just awful against the Atlanta Falcons on both sides of the ball but there's good reason to believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be a better matchup at least for their offense here at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have already given up 99 points this season from their three games & they just haven't done well enough in terms of putting pressure on the opposition quarterback with just 5 sacks (4 from Justin Houston) & one interception, add to that they've gained just one fumble recovery & they just aren't winning the ball back often enough. Philip Rivers looked to be flustered when under pressure against Atlanta but should be better this week & the Chargers first choice running back Ryan Mathews should improve for his seasonal debut last week, offering them more offensive options.

(Ryan Mathews returning is a boost to San Diego's rushing attack..... as long as he doesn't fumble)

 

The Chiefs actually have the top ranked offense in terms of yards gained thanks to their excellent running game where they have a lot of strength in depth with Jamaal Charles already having racked up 323 yards & Shaun Draughn & Peyton Hillis behind him with 107 & 93 yards respectively. Quarterback Matt Cassel has been serviceable but has thrown 4 interceptions to only 3 TDs but he knows his job is to manage the football whilst the rushers play so well - Dwayne Bowe & Dexter McCluster remain his only targets of note. On the San Diego side they seem to have a lot of depth at receiver without any real standout player other than Malcolm Floyd who is their only player to reach double figure receptions, that does make it tough for opposition defenses as they can't just lock down one player to stop them.

The Chargers will be looking to bounce right back after only scoring 3 points last week so expect to see them come out & throw the ball, Kansas have given up 40, 34 & 24 points in their 3 games so San Diego should get some points on the board. The Chiefs' rushing game may also not be so effective here as the Chargers rank 4th on defense in that category & due to the favourable matchups we think San Diego should just about prevail so backing them to win by 1-6 points at 7/2 looks the best bet.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have been undeniably the biggest surprise team in the NFL this year having picked up three wins for a perfect start & gaining them against some good sides in the Patriots, Eagles & tough Seahawks - those first two games were close but they absolutely blew Philadelphia out of the water last Sunday & will look to do the same against Miami here.

(Kevin Kolb has the chance to lead the Cardinals to an unlikely 4&0 start to the season)

 

Miami have had a pretty tough start, playing three defensively sound teams, only winning against the Oakland Raiders in week two, they'll be disappointed with last week's result as they went down to divisional rivals the New York Jets in overtime & it could be hard to pick themselves up from that. We don't rate the Jets at all so Miami's loss last week doesn't give us confidence that they hold any hope in this one. The Cardinals' quarterback Kevin Kolb really just needs to manage games whilst his defense plays so outstandingly, he has an excellent receiver in Larry Fitzgerald & that combination could work well in this one. The Cardinals' first round draft pick Michael Floyd also saw his first reception (it went for a TD) last week & offers more options & they may just air it out a little more this week with Andre Roberts also proving a dependable target. The Cards also have excellent special teams & Patrick Peterson continues to dazzle when returning kicks, they'll regularly gain great field position making it much simpler for them to score.

The Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Tannehill & running back Reggie Bush have both surprised people with higher levels of performance than expected but they are both some way off elite & could both be shut down by the Arizona defense. Miami are pretty sound defensively but they'll need to be as the offense won't score too many points for them here, we can see Arizona gaining a lead & slowly crushing the life out of the Dolphins here,the offer of 8/11 for the Cardinals to be winning at half time & full time looks a great bet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills with a -3.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Paddy Power)
San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs by 1-6 points at 7/2 (General)
Arizona Cardinals HT/FT v Miami Dolphins at 8/11 (Ladbrokes & William Hill)