Monday Night Football - Magpies gonna sing the Sky Blues

A nice start to the Premier League season this weekend with plenty of new signings making their mark including our tip for top scorer honours Roberto Soldado, Simon Mignolet in goal for Liverpool & Ricky van Wolfswinkel for Norwich. It wasn't too bad for us on a betting front either with Rickie Lambert sealing a perfect 2 out of 2 with his last minute penalty to bring up the Southampton draw no bet winner to add to West Ham's impressive home victory. We're keen on both sides to have good seasons, Southampton have landed the striker they very much needed to help loosen Lambert's load with the capture of Roma's Pablo Osvaldo & West Ham can challenge for a top 7 spot if continuing their excellent home form from last year.

Here though we're going to take our first look at Monday Night Football for this season with the dysfunctional Newcastle United travelling to take on Manuel Pellegrini's new look Manchester City side in a game that is important for City to win if they're to lay down a marker of their intent.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

(New Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini - he's from Santiago...)

Manchester City certainly signalled their intent at the end of last season with the removal of Roberto Mancini, his backroom staff & the superbly talented but troublesome Carlos Tevez (with Balotelli also departing 5 months before). They've signed players who're at the age & performance levels that they should be able to contribute straight away & all seem to fit areas of the team where upgrades could've argued to have been needed - it's a strategy that other clubs seem to have failed at (United & Arsenal failing to sign anybody & Chelsea seeming to sign players in just one position - they now have 732 creative midfielders...). Spending just £14.9m on Jesus Navas looks an inspired bit of business in today's extortionate market as the winger has bags of pace & offers genuine width that City lacked previously. Navas will be able to link up with Negredo straight away (they both came from Sevilla) & he'll find the underrated Edin Dzeko a superb target to cross to also. Pellegrini has been tasked with getting his side to play more attractive football than they sometimes did under Mancini & also to get some success in Europe compared to their humiliations over the past two years & he'll view a home match against Newcastle as a good opportunity to begin.

 (Cheick Tiote could be given the runaround by Yaya Toure & co.)

City should have a more attacking philosophy than last year & although they may concede a few more (they were the meanest in the league in 2012-13 with 34 conceded) they won't mind that if they can turn a few draws into wins. We'd say it was more the strategy than the personnel which contributed to City's good defensive record as we're not keen on Hart in goal & although Kompany & Zabaleta are stars we're not so sure about Clichy at left back or whoever they pair Kompany with. Gareth Barry looks to have lost his place with loan deals mooted & that should mean a pacey, scary lineup in this game with the freakishly powerful Yaya Toure & the delightfully talented Fernandinho likely to prove too much for Newcastle to handle in the centre of the pitch. Cheick Tiote's form dipped considerably last year & James Perch lacks the necessary quality, whilst the promising youngster Gael Bigirimana would find this a big ask - they could struggle to both win possession & keep it here & that will strangle the supply to their key attacking players of Gutierrez, Ben Arfa & Cabaye.


Newcastle's off-field issues have been commented on plenty & the problem we see from the off is that they underperformed last season yet haven't been able to do much business in the transfer market to attempt to rectify that with just the minor signing of Oliver Kemen ( a French midfielder surprise, surprise) & the loan signing of Loic Remy coming in so far. They struggled on the road last year with just two league wins (against QPR & Aston Villa) & the lack of firepower without Demba Ba particularly hurt them meaning draws tended to be the aim. That does mean they're used to trying to frustrate opposing sides & they've two very good defenders in Collocini & Santon plus a decent keeper in Tim Krul. The problem is as noted above that they probably won't have too much protection in front of the back four & their other defenders lack a bit of real quality with, for our money, Steven Taylor being a particularly poor player to have played so many Premier League seasons. To be fair Mathieu Debuchy only joined last January & he may well be bedded in now & he's certainly a step up on Danny Simpson at right back.

(City's Stevan Jovetic (right) could be value at 7/4 to score anytime)

This could be a long night for Newcastle & we've a feeling that City will come bursting out of the blocks in this one & could take a grip of the game early on, with that in mind the 9/10 that BetVictor (fast becoming our favourite bookies for football betting) offer for a Man City half time/full time result is the suggested punt. City managed that in 9 of their 19 home games last season & although that suggests odds on isn't a fair price Newcastle are a weaker side than many & poor travellers. The other selection is contingent on him being in the starting lineup & that is Stevan Jovetic anytime goalscorer at 7/4 - the skillful Monetengrin knocked in 27 goals in 58 league games for Fiorentina over the past two years & that's pretty close to the magic 1 in 2 so the odds are very fair.

Selections:
Manchester City half time/full time at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Stevan Jovetic to score at anytime at 7/4 (General) if he starts 

Super Saints to get a Divine Start to the Season

Well... seeing as it's the start of the season in the top division in England we thought we'd better go for a Premier League double bill & have selections from games involving new England hero Rickie Lambert's Southampton & everyone's favourite manager 'Big Sam' & his West Ham side. So far we've started out with 2 of 3 outright selections hitting the mark with Peterborough in the first week of the season & Watford slamming home the pick with a 6-1 hammering, the loser was a 9/4 draw bet & we're hoping to improve this week! As always make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney - it's a good place to let us know your views & we'll put picks up there sometimes too.

West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton

Last year's overperformers West Brom host substantial summer spenders Southampton at the Hawthorns where Mauricio Pochettino's men will be hoping to add to their rather measly 3 away victories in comparison to 2012-13.

(Morgan Schneiderlin's exceptional 2012-13 season went unrecognised for the most part but people should sit up & take notice this time around)

Southampton have gone fairly big on the signings front in an attempt to avoid second season syndrome that sides promoted from the Championship that do well in their first season can tend to suffer; Victor Wanyama has come in from Celtic for £12.5m & should help shore up the midfield area in front of defence & Croatian centre back Dejan Lovren has come in for around £8.5m. We like the approach that Southampton have taken, bringing in relative youngsters (22 & 24 respectively) & going for quality rather than quantity in an attempt to strengthen in specific areas. We still reckon they may want to upgrade between the sticks at some point as Artur Boruc is slightly unpredictable & they don't appear to have much strength in depth behind new England cap winner Rickie Lambert with Jay Rodriguez not convincing on the goals front in the top flight so far.

(Ben Foster - England's No 1?)

The lack of strike options could cost Southampton over the season but we reckon Lambert will be bouncing after his debut against Scotland & could prove too hot for the West Brom defenders to handle - he'll already have had shooting practice against Ben Foster in midweek & will be ultra confident & that spells trouble for the Baggies who were pretty toothless, Lukaku aside, last year.

West Brom will have new signings in Nicolas Anelka & Matej Vydra still trying to bed in & goals could be at a premium for the first few weeks of the season & although they'll remain somewhat hard to beat with Yacob & Mulumbu physically dominating a lot of midfields those two probably don't have a great match-up in this one. Wanyama will be there for the Saints but will also be joined by the emerging Jack Cork & one of the stars of the entire league last season Morgan Schneiderlin whose stats last season were through the roof topping tackles & interceptions showing just what a good young player he is - there hasn't been much transfer talk around the young Frenchman but it wouldn't be surprising to see a big club come sniffing around before long. Adam Lallana & Gaston Ramirez should keep the West Brom fullbacks busy too & that should limit chances for Wes Brom. Just 3 away wins last season remains a concern & we'd rather not take them outright instead having the insurance offered at 13/10 with Ladbrokes on the draw no bet market we like the Saints chances of starting the season very brightly indeed.

West Ham United vs Cardiff City

West Ham bounced back up to the top flight last season & ended up just inside the top half with a very respectable 10th placed finish & they'll be looking to build on that this year whilst Cardiff's number one priority is to avoid slipping straight back to the Championship. This game is actually a repeat of their opening fixture from two seasons back in the Championship where Cardiff prevailed 1-0, West Ham however gained their revenge by beating the Bluebirds three times in a row after that including in the playoffs. We're keen on the home side again this time as they'll see this as an ideal opportunity to get the season off to a flyer.

(Andy Carroll & Kevin Nolan - maybe the Premier League's most effective partnership?)

West Ham can trouble pretty much any team in the Premier League because most sides just aren't used to dealing with many teams that play quite the way Sam Allardyce's sides do with Stoke maybe the only other side who've had a similar style in that they're quite happy to concede possession & instead make the most of when they do have the ball by getting it forward with pace. Allardyce clearly believes that he's got a squad capable of executing his plans because there haven't been too many major changes in the summer apart from clearing out a bit of expensive dead wood in Carlton Cole's departure & the recent signing of Stewart Downing. Romanian left back, the amusingly named, Razvan Rat has joined & the signing of Spanish keeper Adrian looks a smart move as Jussi Jaaskelainen's time as a top stopper looks to be coming to an end. Downing will join up with his ex-Liverpool team mate Andy Carroll who's been added as a permanent signing & although the big Geordie isn't everyone's cup of tea he fits just right at West Ham who always look to play to his strengths.

(Cardiff's Kim Bo-Kyung could take his game to another level in the top division)

Cardiff may be planning to play their new signing Andreas Cornelius in a similar type of role to that of Carroll because the young Danish international looks a bit of a beast at 6'4" & given the right service he'll cause teams problems - it might not be West Ham though who have strength & height (not to mention experience) across the back line & are rarely troubled by balls into the box. The Bluebirds looked very sound defensively last season & that'll help out here but they don't appear to have a proven goalscorer at this level, Frazier Campbell could be that man if he can stay fit, & they may also lack a little bit of guile in midfeld. Club record signing the Chilean Gary Medel probably won't add that creative touch as he's more of a destroyer type & although he's made himself into a club legend over the past 6 years Peter Whittingham never stood out as a youngster when with Aston Villa so has it all to prove. The young South Korean Kim Bo-Kyung could be the man to watch for Cardiff, he's settled in after a promising first season & may prefer the slightly less physical environment of the Premier League than the Championship - he's seen as a potential star by many fans & has taken on Park Ji Sung's number 7 shirt for his national team.

Cardiff continued to signal their intent with the slightly surprising signing of Steven Caulker from Tottenham, the North London club seemed to be singing his praises for much of last season but clearly he didn't feature in AVB's plans as he wanted to turn his team into genuine title challengers. Caulker could be a steal at just £8m, having the potential to be a mainstay for many years; he has only very recently signed though & may take time to settle in & that's a big reason why we reckon West Ham are good value for the win here. The Hammers have a very settled squad & they should look to take advantage of that over the first few weeks of the season starting here. They've retained the excellent Mo Diame & he should handle the Cardiff midfield whilst Kevin Nolan will be relishing linking up with Andy Carroll again further up the pitch, Matt Jarvis &, if he starts, Stewart Downing should keep the Cardiff fullbacks busy & this could be a long afternoon for the Welsh side's defence & keeper David Marshall. Take West Ham to get a win on the board at best odds of Evens with BetVictor or Paddy Power.

Selections:
Southampton to beat West Brom draw no bet at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
West Ham United to beat Cardiff City at Evens (BetVictor & Paddy Power)

Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Goals to fly in for Swans & Magpies

Last Sunday was a good one for punters as Swansea won the League Cup in easy fashion & showed the odds available (as big as 4/9 against a side 3 leagues below) were just plain wrong - it's rare that happens though & it's normally harder work to find value, we're back on the trail this weekend & have a couple of selections for you.

Remember Cheltenham Festival is just a week or so around the corner & we'll be bringing you a blog & bets on each of the days as we get into the swing of things for jump racing's biggest week of the year! We'll be asking for your very best bets of the festival over the next week for a special followers' blog so if you aren't already make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney to join in - either find us there or click the Follow button above. Start sending us your best bets along with reason & the hashtag #LikeBuyingMoney & we'll include.

Swansea City vs Newcastle United

Swansea go back to the Liberty Stadium as conquering heroes after winning the League Cup at Wembley this past Sunday but they face a far higher calibre of opposition in a resurgent Newcastle United side whose form has seen a dramatic upswing after their transfer dealings in the January transfer window.

(Right back Mathieu Debuchy looks a quality signing for the Magpies)

Moussa Sissoko has been the signing who's made the most eye-catching start to his St James Park career with 3 league goals already & he's also helping to bring the best out of striker Papiss Cisse who can blow hot & cold. Although Sissoko has been the star new signing so far Gouffran has also added another dimension up front & Mathieu Debuchy is real football playing right back & he's been important in bringing about 3 wins in their last 4, only losing to in form Spurs in that sequence. The games have all been high scoring too with 3, 5, 3 & 6 goals as Alan Pardew seems to have recognised his players are far more comfortable in attack than defence, they have a nice mix of physically gifted players & technical maestros to think they could make a decent side & they'll have enough to worry Swansea.

(Swansea will want to use their League Cup win as a platform to build on)

Swansea's success in the League Cup was great for them, pre-game we suggested the final was a formality & it worked out like that, but it is testament to Michael Laudrup & the club that they took the competition seriously & were deserved victors. They need to carry that feel-good factor through for the rest of the season as the higher up the table they finish the more prize money they'll receive & the more attractive a proposition they'll be to potential signings (& their coveted crop of current players!). They'll surely play a stronger team than when up against Liverpool two weeks back & they've got the players in their first eleven to compete against anyone (the squad as a whole needs strengthening though), Michu will be looking for his 16th league goal of the season & Nathan Dyer will surely still be pumped up from his brace in the final. If Swansea do concede & fall behind there's no way their fans will allow them to be passive & accept defeat so we can see a high tempo game on the cards.

The home fans will be in full voice for the Welsh side & that could mean that they play with a little more adrenaline than usual which could just maybe set this up to be a stormer, there have been 24 goals in their last 7 home league games & Newcastle have also looked incisive in recent games so 4/5 about over 2.5 goals looks a decent punt.

Morecambe vs Rochdale

Down in League Two, Morecambe entertain Rochdale at the Globe Arena. Morecambe are in 10th place currently still have a faint outside chance of a play-off place whilst are down in 15th position.

 (Morecambe's Jack Redshaw will be looking to keep up his better than 1 goal in 2 scoring ratio)

Morecambe suffered a 3-2 defeat to in-form Burton Albion on Tuesday night but after conceding soft goals they fought back strongly after the introduction of Ryan Williams, Lewis Alessandra & Jack Redshaw to score two goals in the last ten minutes & we would expect the impressive trio to start this weekend. Sadly it put an end of a run of seven points in their last three games including an impressive 1-0 away victory at promotion chasing Port Vale. They have only suffered four defeats at home all season, in 17 matches, & they have a decent record against sides who are lower than them in the league (W6, D5 & L1).

Visitors Rochdale suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home against Accrington Stanley & it's been typical of their recent form since the turn of the year where have only won once & suffered five defeats. On the road they have struggled all season & they have failed to pick up any points in five of their last eight away games. They are leaky on the road & have conceded on average two goals per game which means results are always going to be hard to come by.

We expect Morecambe to be too strong for a leaky Rochdale side & grab the three points which will keep their small glimmer of hope in the play-off chase at the best odds of 13/10.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Swansea City vs Newcastle United at 4/5 (SkyBet, Bet365 & Stan James)
Morecambe to beat Rochdale at 13/10 (SkyBet & BetVictor)

A Tale of Two Welsh Cities

An ace bit of Champions League action in midweek will be hard to follow up but we'll be getting excited if the two top Welsh sides can bring up a double for us in televised games on Saturday early & Sunday afternoon! If you aren't doing so already you can follow us on Twitter where you'll see us happily discussing betting in general plus football, horse racing & the NFL (got my tickets to both Wembley games later this year!) by clicking the Follow button above or finding us on there @LikeBuyingMoney.

Liverpool vs Swansea City

Many a shrewd punter (+ many people with two brain cells to rub together) has worked out that even thinking about backing Liverpool, at consistently shorter prices than they should be, for the last couple of seasons is a sure way to ruin & they look a side to avoid again this weekend when they take on Swansea at Anfield after a long & fruitless European trip to Russia.

(Swansea will want to make impressive loanee Jonathan de Guzman's signing permanent)

Liverpool haven't managed to beat a team in the top half of the table this season & Swansea sit two places & a point clear of them in the league & the Welsh side have been tough to beat holding Chelsea & Man United plus beating Arsenal already. Michael Laudrup has continued the good work Brendan Rodgers started at Swansea & added in some excellent signings, particularly the revelation that is Michu, to improve them in their 2nd top flight season in a row. The Swans possession stats remain excellent with their defenders as confident as their midfield players to play the short passes that frustrate opposition sides & limit the chances they concede. Ashley Williams has been particularly key at the back & Leon Britton has continued his good work from last season in midfield whilst the loan signing de Guzman has added another attacking dimension whilst being another who is confident on the ball.

Liverpool have only won one of their last five in the league & last weekend suffered a reverse at the hands of woefully out of form West Brom. The Reds got a lot of credit for 2-2 draws against Arsenal & Man City but in both games they quickly lost leads (from 2-0 up against Arsenal) & there looks to be a bit of vulnerability creeping in defensively - they've been merely average this season when they have been pretty resolute in past years. It's interesting to see Luis Suarez chirping up about wanting new contract talks so soon after signing a long term deal & the suspicion is that he's preparing the ground for a summer move to gain Champions League football, that's not good news for them as a club trying to move forwards & his recent form isn't good news for them as a club now as he's dropped off his electrifying early season performances.

Liverpool played a full strength side in their Europa League game & even though this is a Sunday game that hands Swansea an advantage especially as their possession game tires sides anyway, odds of 8/13 & shorter for a Liverpool win look plainly wrong. The wager looks to be Swansea on the draw no bet market at odds of 15/4, they draw a lot of games so getting the insurance of your money back with a draw looks better than taking 5/1 for a win.

Cardiff City vs Bristol City

Some regular Twitter followers will know that one of our number is a big Bluebirds fan but that isn't why we think they're a great bet when they take on lowly Bristol City, in what is a bit of a local derby at home in the early game on Saturday.

(Cardiff have themselves a player who was playing for England this time last year in Frazier Campbell)

Cardiff are looking certain for automatic promotion as they're 11 points clear at the top & they've lost just once in 15 league games whilst Bristol are 2nd from bottom & have been the worst away team this season with just 11 points from 15 games. Cardiff have some added incentive to beat Bristol too as they suffered a 4-2 defeat to the South West club early on in the season & it seems unlikely they'll be so slack defensively again as they've only conceded more than once in games in 6 of 30 games this year (that's 20% folks). Ben Turner & Kevin Naughton should both be available for selection for Cardiff & that will further bolster their solid back line & it is needed as Bristol have scored a surprising amount of goals for a club so near the bottom with their somewhat gung ho approach at times. Bristol will be hoping that joint top scorer Sam Baldock can gain fitness after a calf strain otherwise they'll be looking thin on the ground up front as their other main man Steve Davies is also a slight doubt after taking a knock.

Cardiff haven't necessarily been the most exciting team in terms of scoring goals but they have been rock solid & the signing of Frazier Campbell has added a little more firepower & another option for them. Cardiff look far superior to Bristol & the prices for teams with similar levels of disparity in the Premier League would have the better team as far shorter favourites than 4/7 - take that tempting carrot of a price that Coral (not "Corals" as even the people who work there often call them!) offer.



Selections:
Swansea City draw no bet to beat Liverpool at 15/4 (Coral)
Cardiff City to beat Bristol City at 4/7 (Coral)

Yaya can inspire City to South Coast win

Weekend football again after the midweek friendlies  & these are fixtures that make for a far better betting proposition than players running around halfheartedly & mass changes at half time. We're certainly hoping for better results than when watching the Ravens win the Super Bowl, or more accurately the 49ers lose it after a hopeless start to the game!

Southampton vs Manchester City

Southampton have been a much talked about team over the past few weeks after replacing Nigel Adkins with Spaniard Mauricio Pochettino & then putting up an impressive performance, although ultimately losing, when facing Man Utd at Old Trafford, they've got a tough game at St Mary's in the day's late kickoff when they take on Manchester City.

(City have got rid of Balotelli & have Yaya Toure back - winners on all fronts)

Both teams have been hard to beat recently with Southampton losing only 2 of their last 9 league games & City just twice all season but both have dropped points to drawn games with 6 from the Saints in that 9 game sequence & City have lost crucial momentum & ground on United with draws against QPR & Liverpool in their last two. There's good reason to think that City can get back to winning ways here though as Mancini can't afford to be cautious with wins all that matter now that they're 9 points behind the leaders & maybe their very best player, Yaya Toure, returning after Africa Cup of Nations duties.

Yaya is one of the finest midfielders in the world & can impose his will on nearly any side at will & could be coming up against Morgan Schneiderlin in this one in what looks a mismatch in favour of City man. Southampton have a few injury worries to key players with Adam Lallana a doubt & defenders Luke Shaw, Jose Fonte & Nathanial Clyne joining him. Record signing Gaston Ramires is another who may not play & with that list of injury worries it's looking like a bad time to face the current champions.

Pochettino hasn't yet eked out a win whilst in charge of Southampton & although they've looked far more resilient than when leaking goals at the start of the year we can't see anything other than a win for Manchester City & odds of 4/6 with BetVictor look fair. City have too many weapons & are able to break teams down through skill through the likes of David Silva & Sergio Aguero or through physical dominance from players like Yaya Toure & the underappreciated Edin Dzeko & they'll pounce on any defensive weakness.

Norwich City vs Fulham

Norwich against Fulham may not be the most glamorous tie of the season but this is an intriguing one & important for both as points have been thin on the ground for the two teams sat level in the table on 28 points. Norwich boss Chris Hughton also served 3 years as Jol's assistant whilst at Tottenham & the Canaries will be keen to gain revenge for a 5-0 drubbing on the opening day from their London opponents.

(Martin Jol is seeking a rare away Fulham win)

Norwich haven't won in their past 8 league games & haven't managed to score in 4 of those, with none of their players having managed more than 5 goals in all competitions & Grant Holt certainly hasn't looked so impressive as last year after failing to engineer a move away from Carrow Road. They're reasonable at the back but miss John Ruddy in goal (long term injury) & have injury concerns about usual starters Alex Tettey & Anthony Pilkington.

Fulham rarely pick up wins in away games & they've stuttered after a great start to the season when they won 5 of 9 but the signs have been a bit better in recent games with their only losses in their last 5 league games coming against the Manchester sides whilst gaining wins away at West Brom &  at home against West Ham. They showed a lot of resistance last week against Man Utd, going down 1-0 to a late Rooney goal & they may have star player Dimitar Berbatov back for this after injury. Jol will also have found a bit of time to work with his January loan signings, of whom Urby Emanuelson & Emmanuel Frimpong look like they could be useful. Frimpong will certainly add a much needed bit of bite to the Fulham midfield & that could prove the area that they can better their hosts in this one.

Backing Fulham on the road is usually a sure way to the poor house but there have been encouraging signs in recent games whilst Norwich's form has slumped & they look bereft of attacking ideas, take the Cottagers to win at nice odds of 23/10. Checking the team sheets is advised in this game as Fulham did have more players on international duty, we jut think they've got a bit more going for them than Norwich who seem to be lacking in quality & confidence.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Southampton at 4/6 (BetVictor)
Fulham to beat Norwich at 23/10 (BetVictor)

Quality Queens Park defence can keep Canaries Quiet

Hmmm, not a good few days for us on the football front with our last three selections all looking good before succumbing to time with Stoke not holding out for the draw against Man City on Staurday  then blowing their 2 goal lead against a Roger Espinoza inspired Wigan on Wednesday to add to Charlton running out of steam last weekend too. This weekend's games do however seem to have thrown up some odd prices that can be backed to give us & you an edge over the bookies & you'll see these bets below.

We use oddschecker.com to check our prices & would advise anyone else to if they're serious about finding the very best prices available - I only mention it because it also has a function showing what thee most backed bets in each market are  I was deeply surprised to see the pie chart indicating so many punters were going for the opposite of our selection in the QPR game - it seems punters love goals regardless of what the form book says!

Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City

QPR still prop up the rest of the league but they've become undeniably tough to beat under Harry Redknapp with a 1-0 win against Chelsea & 3 draws (2 against top sides) in their last 4 league games, they take on out-of-form Norwich in the early Saturday kickoff in what could be a tense affair.

(Julio Cesar is staking his claim to be the best Brazilian in the Premier League)

The bottom has somewhat fallen out of Norwich's season after they overcame a poor start to gain 6 wins & 4 draws in an undefeated 10 games from October to mid December, they've now not won in 7 & benefited from Spurs' lack of firepower in their draw with the London side on Wednesday night. Apart from a few isolated high scoring games the Canaries have been largely solid at the back & it's instead their lack of goals that has been a problem with just 25 in their 24 games & they've signed Leeds' Luciano Becchio in an effort to remedy that - we're unconvinced the Argentinian is Premier League class though.

QPR's goalscoring has become virtually non-existent with 3 in their last 7 league games & 18 for the season, injuries & indifferent form have been the reason & even though Loic Remy could prove a good signing Harry Redknapp won't sacrifice his new found defensive solidity for all-out attack as evidennced by the expensive signing of the giant Chris Samba who makes a welcome return to English football. Adel Taarabt remains the key player for the Hoops with his excellent passing range & silky skills, Chris Hughton may respond to his threat by getting defensive midfielder Alex Tettey to 'do a number' on the Moroccan.

The market to concentrate on in this game looks to be the Over/Under 2.5 goals one & with both teams already having had 13 games go under this season, including their previous meeting, the bet has to be under 2.5 goals at just a shade of odds on at 10/11. Julio Cesar has been outstanding in goal for QPR recently showing why he's gained so many caps for Brazil & he can gain another clean sheet. A small wager on QPR to nick this one 1-0 at 15/2 with BetVictor also looks worth a look.


Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United

Down in League One sees top of the table Tranmere Rovers host Carlisle United at Prenton Park. Tranmere are the team to catch currently whilst Carlisle have been struggling in recent months & have fallen to 17th place.

(Andy Robinson loves it when they rub his head)

Tranmere have won five of their last six league games after a poor spell in November & most of December, their latest victory was an impressive 2-1 away victory at 4th place Brentford & they were robbed of a potential firecracker against Swindon Town in midweek due to a frozen pitch. In these five victories they have kept three clean sheets & they are unbeaten in their last five home league games & won their last three. Rovers have however lost top scorer Jake Cassidy who ended his loan period in early January & returned to parent club Wolves, it hasn't been too much of an impediment so far but the pressure is on Andy Robinson, this could be a good game for him against the league's joint highest conceders.

Carlisle are inconsistent & have struggled all season to put a string of decent results together. They have conceded one goal or more in every single away match & if this trend continues then will find it an uphill task against a measly Tranmere defence. They have also lost their last three away games to Shrewsbury Town, Crewe Alexandra & Swindon.

Tranmere will be too strong for an average Carlisle side & can cement their pole position at the best price of 10/11 with BetVictor.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in QPR vs Norwich game at 10/11 (William Hill & Coral)
QPR to beat Norwich 1-0 at 15/2 (BetVictor)
Tranmere Rovers to beat Carlisle United at 10/11 (BetVictor)

Super Stoke can Lash Loser Latics

The weekend did not exactly do us at Like Buying Money proud with our football bets (Stoke v Man City draw & Charlton to beat Wednesday) looking good up to 80+ minutes & a trip to Cheltenham ruined betting wise when our punts on Imperial Commander (£30k matched in-running at 1/100) & The New One (£9k matched in-running at 1/50) also went down! We need a bit more than a minor rough patch to stop us though & the midweek fixtures seem to have thrown up a nice bet in a game between one of the league's toughest teams & one of the least resilient.

Stoke City vs Wigan Athletic

OK, so Stoke didn't quite last the full 90 minutes on Saturday against Premier League champions Manchester City but they have the chance to redeem themselves to us & followers by taking advantage of arguably the easiest fixture in the league season - a home fixture against Wigan.

(Wigan wil without Ivory Coast star Arouna Kone)

Wigan's claims for having a chance in this one must rest mainly on the fact that they are rested after fielding a weakened team in their FA Cup game against non-league Macclesfield but their league form has been poor & they have surely used up their unlikely relegation escapes in recent seasons. Wigan have conceded the second most goals so far, behind only Aston Villa who conceded 8 in one game & they've won just once in 10 with that coming against the aforementioned hapless Villa. Arouna Kone has been reasonable up front for Wigan but he's on Africa Cup of Nations duty & it's hard to see where their goals will come from against a Stoke outfit that have kept 9 clean sheets on the season.

(Jon Walters can trouble the Wigan defence instead of his own)

Asmir Begovic will return to goal for the Potters after sitting out Saturday's fixture & he will be tough to beat even if Wigan do manage to create many chances, that should mean the attacking players can play with freedom & confidence. Jon Walters remains a key player for Stoke even if he garnered unwanted attention for two own goals & a penalty miss against Chelsea & he could find success against the back three formation that Martinez likes his defence to play. Goalscoring has certainly been Stoke's problem with just 22 on the season but 14 have come at home suggesting away fixtures are more of a problem & even if Wigan put players behind the ball they'll remain vulnerable against what will likely be multiple set pieces for the home team.

It's tempting to take the odds on the under 2.5 goals scoreline but a Stoke win has to be the bet, they've only lost at home to Chelsea (league) & Man City (cup) on the season with the Brittania remaining formidable - back them at 21/20 with several firms.

Selection:
Stoke City to beat Wigan Athletic at 21/20 (Various)

Cue Card can Out-Boxing Day Rivals in King George

Boxing Day is always a big day for sport with a full schedule of football & high quality horse racing, we're taking a look at one Premier League game plus a couple of Grade One races from Kempton as we look for some festive cheer.

Christmas Hurdle - 2.35 Kempton

This year's renewal of the Christmas Hurdle looks to be one where last year's novices try to make their mark as fully fledged Champion Hurdle contenders & we think it'll certainly be one of the upstarts to win this time. Punjabi is a previous Champion Hurdler but that was in 2009 & Henderson's charge has been off the track for two & a half years & we can't see him showing up well & Raya Star & Get Me Out Of Here are top handicappers but probably not quite at this level whilst Moose Moran is a no hoper.

(Countrywide Flame is tough & classy & deserves favouritism in the Christmas Hurdle)

After eliminating horses 5-8 from consideration we're left with the 4 & 5 year olds, Dodging Bullets has shown good form this season to win twice after competing at a very high level & running well in its first 3 hurdle starts at the beginning of 2012 but opposition here might just have the edge as he's twice finished behind Countrywide Flame already. Cinders And Ashes & Darlan finished 1st & 2nd respectively in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham & Darlan then went & won very easily at Aintree in a Grade Two but it does have to overcome this being its first start of the season. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes one fair & square at Cheltenham but Darlan may just have a little more scope in the long run & either way it seems hard to imagine that Cinders And Ashes can turn around form with Countrywide Flame as John Quinn's 4 year old slammed it by 12 lengths in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Countrywide Flame had been kept busy over the summer by running on the flat but gave the impression that he'd grown up a bit in that Newcastle race & he'd already shown great from last year when winning the Triumph & coming close to following up at Aintree, we're certain if Countrywide Flame was with a more fashionable trainer it'd be a shorter price than 2/1 for this so take advantage & get on.

King George VI Chase - 3.10 Kempton

The 2nd most prestigious 3 mile chase of the season nearly always throws up classy winners & is the key trial for the Gold Cup, we won't have 5 time winner Kauto Star competing this time but 2010 winner & 2011 runner up Long Run heads the betting at 2/1.

(Cue Card looks a strong King George Chase contender)

Long Run is the obvious starting point as the highest rated horse & we felt he'd regain the Gold Cup last March but it might be that the 2010 race took a lot of the horse as he did that as just a 6 year old, many ex-French horses show great form as younger horses over here but then fail to improve like more patiently trained runners. Long Run has only won once in his last 5 runs & that was all out holding off Burton Port, the form is all high class but the odds today are a little short especially as owner & amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen continues to take the reins - he of course can do as he pleases but stable jockey Barry Geraghty would surely do a better job.

Long Run's stablemate Riverside Theatre looks to hold a great chance even though it's know as a two & a half miler as it looked like a real staying performance when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham & he's repeatedly shone after a break. Kauto Stone however looks to be too short a price based on overall form although the win at Down Royal in November was the best it had been & may have indicated a step up, we still can't be backing the Nicholls horse in this one. The Giant Bolster is one that definitely has improved, finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup & then 3rd in the Betfair Chase but nthat still isn;t winning form & while it could run well is another we'll disregard. Grands Crus is the horse we fear most as he'd looked a true 3 mile star as a novice up until disappointing at Cheltenham, he flopped on comeback when red hot favourite for the Paddy Power but the money has started to come for David Pipe's grey in recent days & this track should be perfect for him if on his game.

We're instead siding with Cue Card as the youngest horse in the race looks to take it's classy form over a shorter distance & become a serious Gold Cup contender. Colin Tizzard's 6 year old unseated when taking on Grands Crus on its 2nd chase start but other than that has either won or when losing has only done so to the very best novices around in Bob's Worth & the spectacular Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card tore up trees when storming to victory in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & we're unsure this will be a truly run race as many of the contenders are speed horses, if the race is run to suit we feel Cue Card will be the quickest come the end & can claim a brilliant success at odds of 11/2.

Fulham vs Southampton

Martin Jol's Fulham have won just once in their last 10 league games & come up against Southampton who are in relatively good form winning half their last 6 & their defence has improved massively to only concede just 5 in 7 after looking completely hopeless until the end of October, this promises to be an intriguing match up.

(Damien Duff is one of Fulham's old guard who can celebrate a win v Southampton)

Everybody knows that Fulham's away form is less than adequate but they're pretty solid at home usually & although they've lost 3 at home from 8 two of those came against top opposition in the form of Spurs & Man City. Fulham seem to have adopted a very attacking attitude with Jol now really molding the side to his style & the signing of Dimitar Berbatov looks an inspired piece of business, he's known to bully weaker teams & Southampton have conceded 20 in 7 away games even with their recent improvement. At the back Fulham look a bit of an ageing side & Schwarzer has been on the slide for a while & all 4 first choice defenders 30 or older & they're the 2nd highest conceders along with Southampton & Wigan. They were awful against Liverpool at the weekend, offering very little resistance but the Saints could be the right opponents for them to be facing here.

Southampton may be improved recently but that has mainly been at St Marys as they've won only once on the road & lost their other 6 games, their recent defensive improvement has also come at a cost to their attacking threat & star striker Rickie Lambert has scored just twice in 12. Of great concern to Southampton will be the injury to their captain & playmaker Adam Lallana who looks likely to sit this one out, he's very important to them but at least Gaston Ramirez has got fit & started to contribute, he adds a touch of class when on form. Southampton went down 1-0 at home to Sunderland on Saturday & only managed 2 shots on target in the game, Rickie Lambert will find defences more to his liking than Fulham's, they're a physical bunch, & he's struggled to get good service in recent games anyway. We're unconvinced Southampton can keep up their good defensive work & Fulham can take advantage in a game they need to win to get their season back on track, back them at a shades of odds on to win the game.

Selections:
2.35 Kempton - Countrywide Flame to win at 2/1 (General)
3.10 Kempton - Cue Card to win at 11/2
Fulham to beat Southampton at 10/11 (Betfred & Totesport)

Sky Blues & Arsenal to deliver a double volley to the bookies

There's plenty of sporting action over this Christmas period & we'll be trying to find the best bets right throughout - the football wasn't great for us last Saturday with two lower league losers but other than that it's been winners all the way for followers with Arsenal winning with ease on Monday preceded by our NFL picks coming up trumps too. We'll have the American football bets up as usual for Sunday's full schedule of games & with a bit of luck we may even get a King George blog up as well for Boxing Day's racing. Make sure to follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney if you aren't doing so already by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button up above.

Wigan Athletic vs Arsenal

Sometimes you can see bets that look too simple to be true but you can't let that put you off a great punting opportunity & Arsenal look overpriced again against Wigan just as they were when thrashing Reading on Monday night.

(Ho Ho Ho! What will Santi deliver this Christmas?)

Arsene Wenger has done a super bit of business with tying down a quintet of key young English players to long term deals in the week & there appears to be a bit of a feel good factor at the club after hearing nothing but grumbles by many fans & some super intelligent ex-players (cough Ian Wright cough). Arsenal are one of the top three sides in Europe in terms of possession along with Bayern Munich & Barcelona who sit way out in front, that passing style & superior players should ensure that they best Wigan who also try to play football the supposed 'right' way.

Wigan have lost the joint most games in the league, 10 along with Reading & too often seem to have a soft centre & that paired along with a lack of a consistent scorer has meant they've slipped into the relegation zone. Wigan's ex-Hamilton James's McCarthy & McArthur are decent players but Arsenal's central midfielders should be able to outmaneuver them especially now that Santi Cazorla looks to back to form with an almighty bang. Odds of 3/4 about an Arsenal win look too big - the Latics are 3rd worst on their home form with the Gunners 4th best in the league on the road.

Coventry City vs Preston North End

Down in League One, Coventry City entertain Preston North End at Ricoh Arena. There is only one point & two places between them with Coventry 13th & Preston 15th.

(Striker David McGoldrick (front) is the main man for Coventry & worth his weight in goals)

Coventry are in fine form & two weeks ago they brought home the money for us & you as they easily dispatched Walsall 5-1 with a brace from both David McGoldrick & Carl Baker. They followed it up with an excellent 4-1 away victory at 4th place Doncaster Rovers to make it six wins in their last eight league games. McGoldrick is League One top goalscorer now with 15 goals of which ten coming his last nine league games & manager Mark Robins will be desperate to extend his loan deal past the 1st January.

Preston have been inconsistent all season with seven wins, eight draws & seven defeats in their 22 league games so far, they have only won one of their last eight league games & a they earnt a point in a 0-0 draw last weekend against Portsmouth after two defeats to Leyton Orient & Crewe Alexander. They have failed to score in three of their last four & the side haven't been effective since the long term injuries to full backs Keith Keane & Scott Laird.

We expect a Coventry side brimming with confidence & goals to be too strong for an inconsistent Preston team at the best price of 6/5 with bet365 & BetVictor.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Wigan Athletic at 3/4 (Various)
Coventry City to beat Preston North End at 6/5 (bet365/BetVictor)

Monday Night Football - Royals facing the Firing Squad

We haven't been making picks for every Monday night but we like the look of the Premier League game this week as there may have been a slight overreaction by the layers to Arsenal's recent poor form - Kevin Pullein recently stated again, in his excellent Racing Post column, how poor runs of form tend to be worse indicators of the quality of a team than good runs (it's easier to lose than win!) & this may well be the case with the Gunners.

Reading vs Arsenal

All the talk in recent weeks has been of how terrible Arsenal are & that it may be time for the side to part ways with their French managerial maestro Arsene Wenger yet if they beat bottom placed Reading this Monday night they'll go to 5th place in the Premier League & be set to be challenging for one of those lucrative Champions League spots.

(Arsene Wenger is under intense media pressure & has demanded his players improve)

It's quite correct for Arsenal to have been derided for going out of the League Cup to League Two Bradford last week, they can't claim to have not been taking it seriously because we all saw the 11 players who lined up & proceeded to play so poorly with a listless display. The criticism will however have genuinely hurt Wenger & the vast majority of his players (Three-O Walcott may not care so much though....) & this game against the porous Reading defence could be just the tonic for the Gunners. The League Cup game here earlier in the season was maybe the most remarkable in the competition ever with the scoreline ending up 7-5 after Reading led by 4 just before half time with Walcott (a slight doubt here with injury) inspiring the Arsenal comeback.

(Not everyone's favourite but Per Mertesacker has helped organise the Arsenal defence)

That 7-5 game will mean that both sides will want to be tighter at the back here but Reading don't have the players to do that, they've kept just one clean sheet in the league & Arsenal are much more resilient in general, they've had 6 clean sheets (over 1/3 of their games) & have only conceded 16 in total. Some Reading defenders really aren't up to this level & that includes mediocre keeper Adam Federici & Shaun Cummings & Adrian Mariappa have struggled with the step up to the top league. Arsenal still need to strengthen at the keeper position but their back 4 are actually developing into a coherent group & although Per Mertesacker is always vulnerable to balls in behind he's well complemented by pacy fullbacks Gibbs & Jenkinson. Arsenal's big problem in recent weeks has been that record signing Santi Cazorla's form has dropped off, he had become their most important attacking player by far & the talented but unarguably overrated Jack Wilshere has not stepped up on his return from injury.

Reading have won just once this year, they've lost their last 5 & they conceded 3 to toothless Sunderland last week, as lacklustre as Arsenal have been we think the value lies with them to win & do it comfortably too - back them at 4/6 to pick up the win. Arsenal should be really fired up & will be aiming to salvage a bit of respect from their short journey to the suburbs, their attack should be much improved when Gervinho drops to the bench so have samll bets on scorelines of 2-0 & 3-0 at 9/1 & 16/1 for potential big pickups.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Reading at 4/6 (General)
Arsenal to win 2-0 at 9/1 (BetVictor, Stan James & Coral)
Arsenal to win 3-0 at 16/1 (BetVictor & Stan James)

Baggies to Bounce Back against Pallid Potters

Most of the League One & Two sides are in cup action this weekend so our regular bread winners have had to be deserted but we think there is money to be made by backing a couple of decent teams to bounce back against some low scoring dodgy travellers in the Premier League & Championship. We're looking for yet another profitable weekend, last time was middling but still profitable thanks to 3 out of 5 selections obliging including the 9/4 draw in the Charlton v Huddersfield game.

West Bromwich Albion vs Stoke City

In the Premier League, West Bromwich Albion entertain Stoke City at the Hawthorns, West Brom sit in 4th place with eight victories so far whilst Stoke are just above mid-table in 9th spot. The sides come into this one on the back of conflicting results with Stoke battling back impressively to win 2-1 after falling behind against out of form Newcastle & West Brom conceding 3 goals in the first half to lose 3-1 to Swansea.

 (Steve Clarke has already had plenty of reason to celebrate in his new job as manager)

Steve Clarke has made a seamless transition from a right hand man to manager & has earnt plenty of plaudits for their impressive start. Clarke has learnt his trade under a number of different managers, most notably Jose Mourinho, & has always had the reputation of making sure the sides he's involved with are well organised & defensively solid. When you add into the mix three strikers in Shane Long, Peter Odemwingie & loanee Romelu Lukaku who have 14 league goals between them then we can see why they have started so well - of course the outstanding Roy Hodgson's role in setting West Brom on the right path should also not be underestimated. West Brom are particularly strong at home where they have won six out of seven league games with their only failure coming with a defeat against defending champions Manchester City.

Stoke are now a established Premier league side these days but have always struggled on the road & so far this season it's been no different. They have failed to win any of their seven away league fixtures with four draws & three defeats against Manchester United, Chelsea & Norwich City. All season they have struggled to find the back of the net with only 13 goals at less than a goal a game & leading scorer Peter Crouch hasn't found the net since September.

Although the Baggies lost to Swansea on Wednesday they face very a very different style of opponent here & if they can get their midfielders on the ball they will fancy themselves to score & with Stoke so goal shy they'll fancy themselves to bag all 3 points - back West Brom to continue their excellent home form at the general price of 21/20.

Leicester City vs Derby County

Leicester disappointed on Tuesday night with a loss away to Leeds but Elland Road can be an intimidating stadium & we like the look of them to make the most of their home advantage against a merely average Derby side this Saturday.

(Kasper Schmeichel & the rest of the Leicester defence can keep Derby at bay)

Derby got themselves a good result with a 1-1 draw at home to high flying Cardiff in midweek but were maybe fortunate to run into the Bluebirds when they were suffering from several injuries & they were 1-0 down until Craig Noone got himself red carded after fouling twice in quick succession. Derby do have an excellent youngster in Will Hughes & the 17 year old midfielder is reportedly catching the eye of big clubs in this country & around Europe but his best form has tended to be at home much like the rest of his teammates. Derby have lost 5 of their 9 away games & only Ipswich have scored less goals on the road & that doesn't bode well coming up against Leicester's excellent defence that have only conceded 17 in 19 games. Theo Robinson is certainly proving a threat up front for the Rams but he very much needs service to thrive & he might not get that in away games.

Leicester really felt the absence of their star striker David Nugent against Leeds but still offered a threat with the improving Martyn Waghorn hitting the bar - ironically Nugent is out with a neck injury & Waghorn himself has no neck at all but it doesn't stop him from being a skillful player. The Foxes are hopeful of getting Nugent back & fit for this one but even without him they'll feel confident of getting all 3 points with their strong defence continuing to impress, Kasper Schmeichel has always been a decent enough young keeper but he eventually seems to be really making his mark & thriving in the Midlands. With 7 wins from 9 home games we think Leicester should be shorter than 7/10 to beat Derby who sit 19th in the away form league table.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to beat Stoke City at 21/20 (various)
Leicester City to beat Derby County at 7/10 (BlueSquare, 888Sport & William Hill)

Monday Night Football - Clean Sheet Kings to keep it close

We've been reading recently about the general trend around European football, including the Premier League, for more goals but there are a few sides in England this year that are bucking that trend & we see a couple of them meet up tonight at Upton Park as West Ham United host Stoke City in what could be an old fashioned kickfest.

West Ham United vs Stoke City

(Midfielders Mark Noble & Kevin Nolan are key to West Ham)

It should be noted that these are the two teams with the joint best clean sheet record in the league this year with 5 shutouts each in their 11 games & that's through a combination of tough physical defences & because of their style of football where the ball doesn't tend to be on the ground as much or similarly in play thanks to booming clearances & plenty of time taken over set pieces. Neither side like to lose either with just three losses a piece & Stoke's have come against Chelsea, Man Utd & in-form Norwich so there's no shame there although their lack of goal threat means they have to settle for draws too often & have only one win on the board. Peter Crouch looks like Stoke's only real goal threat with little support from midfield & even though we like Jon Walters build up play he never looks like getting 10+ league goals a year.

West Ham certainly do have a goal threat from midfield & it comes chiefly from their vocal captain Kevin Nolan who ranks right up there as one of the most effective & consistent English players for the last decade & we can understand his frustration with never being picked for the national side. Mark Noble is another of their midfielders with an eye for goal & he has also recently been hinting he'd like an England call up, if Noble & Nolan really want to push their claims they need to be the ones to make a difference in tight games like this especially as the West Ham forwards have failed to fire so far. Andy Carroll hasn't managed a goal yet even though he's at just about the best club possible to exploit his attributes although he's had an injury & to be fair his all round play has definitely been beneficial especially his partnership with good mate Kevin Nolan.

(Ryan Shawcross recently got a deserved England cap but he's not everyone's cup of tea...)

When you take a look at the players each team has in defence they really are just physical powerhouses, Ryan Shawcross had 180 more clearances in the league than any other player last year & James Collins ranked 2nd in the same category for Villa last year & has now come into the Hammers side with great success. This isn't likely to be a pretty game by any means but West Ham have a great incentive to go all out for the win here as they have a tough run of fixtures after this up to Christmas so they need to get points on the board, they should have faith in their defence to cope with Peter Crouch much more easily than some teams & we like their chances. Big Sam will send his team out for the win & West Ham are just about value at a price of Evens with 5 victories from 11 already & taking them to win 2-0 at 19/2 also looks worth a little play as we think they'll keep the low scoring Potters at bay.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Stoke City at Evens (General)
West Ham to win 2-0 at 19/2 (BetVictor)

Right Wing Devils but still better than the Villains

We just love Saturdays at the minute with 7 winning bets from 8 main selections at odds of 11/5 (double of 4/5 & 8/11), 6/5, 11/10, 11/10, 8/11, 6/5 & Evens. We're always pretty selective with our tipping as we think that even if you're successful it does take something away when you put selections up every day but hopefully we can come up with another perfect set of picks on the day of the week every gambler loves best! Remember you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above or finding us on there & by doing so you'll keep up to date with notifications about the blog & be able to join in the sports & betting conversation.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Sometimes it pays to keep things simple & this looks a penalty kick (hopefully not taken by Wayne Rooney...) for United here as they look to maintain their position at the summit of the Premier League table. Villa managed their second win of the season with a gutsy 1-0 win at Sunderland last week but this looks altogether tougher against Ferguson's side who've now won 8 of their last 9 in the league scoring 26 goals in the process & they should have too much firepower for Villa to compete.

(Along with Valencia, Rafael has been wreaking havoc down the right)

A lot has been made of how often United have fallen behind in games but Villa's offense is so impotent they may not trouble the back four that have now been playing together for some time since Vidic's injury & looked to have Arsenal's offense completely shut down on Saturday. United have actually scored plenty of early goals themselves with their new star Robin van Persie having scored in the first half in 5 league games already. Being on the road doesn't bother United either with them having won all 4 since their opening day loss to Everton & they should play on the front foot from the start here.

Villa have only scored more than one goal on one occasion & although their defence is pretty sound they've only played Everton & Spurs out of the teams you could consider the better in the league & their inexperienced full backs Matt Lowton & Joe Bennett could have their hands full with United's wingers & the overlapping Rafael & Evra. United are getting a lot of success scoring from crosses & passes from the wide areas but can hurt from the middle too. The 4/7 about a United win looks more than fair but for better odds look for them to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 11/8.

Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City

Blackburn & their fans haven't had the easiest couple of years with their idiosyncratic Indian owners at the helm but the Rovers faithful got what they wanted with Steve Kean's sacking & now have their first home game with new boss & ex-player Henning Berg in charge, coming up against a pretty mediocre Birmingham side.

(Blackburn's 'old man' Morten Gamst Pedersen still has a quality delivery)

Lee Clark has come in as Birmingham manager but hasn't really got his ragtag squad firing whilst going forward & they rank joint 3rd worst in terms of goals with just 17 in 15 games & lost to bottom of the league Ipswich last Saturday. They did win at Bristol City on Tuesday but they were themselves in 23rd place & this a tougher assignment against a Blackburn side that retain a lot of good players considering the upheaval at the club. Their big summer signing was powerful young striker Jordan Rhodes & he's starting to hit his stride, scoring in 3 of their last 5 games. Rovers have also got a decent enough defence & rank joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded - it would be better if they hadn't conceded 3 in consecutive games against Leeds & Bristol City (losing neither).

With what promises to be a full house at Ewood Park Blackburn should really push forwards in this one against Birmingham who have looked woeful at times (particularly the 5-0 loss to Barnsley & the recent Ipswich game). Even with losing to red-hot Palace & drawing once getting 2-1 up against Huddersfield, Rovers are still in the playoff places whilst Birmingham languish close to the relegation zone so take the 21/20 for a Blackburn win.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Aston Villa HT/FT at 11/8 (Stan James)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Birmingham City at 21/20 (BetVictor & Stan James)

Goals? You never said anything about scoring goals!?

We're still smarting after going so close to all 3 results coming in for us last weekend with Brentford the let downs after scoring all 4 goals in their game but unfortunately with two at the wrong end! It's been a decent footy season for us & we'll attempt to keep it going with a goals market double in the Premier League plus a game in the 1st round of the FA Cup.

Norwich City vs Stoke City & Sunderland vs Aston Villa

This Saturday sees maybe the two least inspiring matches of the season so far only rivalled when these 4 teams faced off last week in a slightly different order of play where Villa drew 1-1 with Norwich & Stoke drew 0-0 with Sunderland. The four teams have each managed just one win each & fill 4 of the bottom 5 places for goals scored in the league this season, whilst Sunderland & Stoke are 2nd & joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded. All of this means it's been pretty miserable for fans of all 4 teams this year & could end up having long term consequences in terms of reduced attendances if they can't find some attacking tendencies quickly.

(Crouch & Walters are Stoke's likeliest scorers)

We'll start off with the Norwich v Stoke game & this is one that we feel is going to be a real struggle for the Canaries as their one method of scoring that has proven at least semi-effective is getting the ball up to Grant Holt & he has proven he can bully plenty of classy Premier League defenders. Holt however won't find it as easy to get success against the Stoke defenders who are the most physical in the league (even without the broken-legged Marc Wilson) & can easily deal with most crosses & set piece situations & are led by their dominant captain Ryan Shawcross. We're also fans (as are Chelsea) of Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic & think they can keep Norwich at bay here, Stoke don't score too many themselves (only scored 3 or more goals once in the League since May 2011) so this looks an ideal candidate of a game to go under 2.5 goals & odds of 4/5 about it are excellent value. Stoke have played probably the 4 best sides in the country already (Chelsea, Arsenal & both Manchester sides) losing only twice & they'll be looking to improve now they have an easier set of fixtures & we'll take them to sneak this one 1-0 at a generous price of 8/1.

(Colback, Cuellar & O'Shea - 3 of Sunderland's impenetrable back 4)

Sunderland have only lost once this year (to Man City) & have been imperious defensively with veterans John O'Shea & Carlos Cuellar arguably the best centre back pairing in the league right now, of course it helps that they are guarded by the midfield terrier that is Lee Cattermole. Sunderland's real problem has been the lack of chances they've created & Stephane Sessegnon's form has been a particular problem as he was so important last season, James McClean is off the boil a bit too & Seb Larsson hasn't even been getting his set pieces right. We'd also argue that although Craig Gardner has done well at right back this year we much prefer him higher up the pitch  playing neat one-twos to find a way through opposing defenses. If Sunderland do create chances they know that Steven Fletcher can put them away & they may find they can push higher up the pitch in this game as Villa offer so little at the top end of the pitch themselves.

Villa have only scored twice & gained one point from their 5 away games so far, losing to nil against West Ham, Spurs & Fulham, they may have scored 3 in midweek but that was against League One Swindon & we think they'll fail to find the back of the net here. Both sides  played pretty much full strength sides in their League Cup matches meaning there could be somewhat tired legs here but Sunderland will be desperate to win for their fans after falling to local rivals Middlesbrough & can take this with a narrow 1-0 victory (6-1) & this can be doubled up with the previous game to go under 2.5 goals too (8/11).

Forest Green Rovers vs Port Vale

This weekend sees the 1st round of the FA Cup with Forest Green Rovers entertaining Port Vale at The New Lawn. Forest Green are sitting in 6th spot in the Conference Premier whilst Port Vale are 28 places higher in 2nd position in League Two.

(Striker Tom Pope has been in fantastic goalscoring form with 15 goals already this season)

 

Port Vale have won nine matches & collected 30 points so far this season & have been in fine form in the last couple of months. They did suffer a setback last weekend with a 2-0 defeat to Northampton Town but they did play 70 minutes with ten men after John McCombe dismissal. Before this game they won four & draw two of their last six league games & their record on the road this season is particularly good with five victories & hitting the net on average nearly two goals per game.

Forest Green, the longest serving members of the Conference Premier, made a fantastic start to the season but have tailed off in recent weeks. They have lost four league games in a row & two of these have been at home against Tamworth & Luton Town. Confidence would have undoubtedly taken a hit & Port Vale will be too strong for them at the general price of 6/5.

Selections: Under 2.5 goals double - Norwich v Stoke at 4/5 & Sunderland v Aston Villa at 8/11 (Stan James)
Stoke to beat Norwich 1-0 at 8/1 (Stan James)
Sunderland to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at 6/1 (Various)
Port Vale to beat Forest Green Rovers at 6/5 (Various)