Villa Upstarts to go all ASBO over Liverpool

Another weekend of football action coming up & with 5 out of 6 winning bets, including 3 on the Premier League last week, we're hoping to continue in a similar vein with selections from the top division down to the lower leagues. As always if you find us here but don't follow us on Twitter please do; you can find us @LikeBuyingMoney & we'll hopefully keep you entertained as well as informed!

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

This is maybe the weekend's most interesting Premier League game (at least until Man United vs Chelsea on Monday night) as we get to take a look at a seemingly much improved Aston Villa side who take on the still Suarez-less Liverpool who for all their good play last week still only beat Stoke thanks to a late penalty save.

(Gabriel Agbonlahor finished 2012-13 in fine form & has continued so far this season)

Paul Lambert seems to be getting the best out of his squad of young players at the moment, particularly the forwards Christian Benteke & Gabby Agbonlahor with the lifelong Villa man looking unplayable at times with his pace & power in their opening two games against Arsenal & Chelsea. The ever-promising Fabian Delph may also be ready to deliver this season judged on the start he's made & whilst there remain issues with regards to Villa's sturdiness they look like they have the potential to give any side a game of it at the moment.

Liverpool finished off last season in pretty hot form (7 wins, 4 draws & a loss in their final 12) but by then it meant little in terms of what they could achieve in the league & it remains to be seen whether they can put that kind of form together over a whole season in order to claim a Champions League spot. Brendan Rodgers would surely be happy so long as they don't drop too many points whilst without their star striker Luis Suarez, out of action because of his ban & he's got his side a tricky contest here. Liverpool's main area of weakness for us is their lack of width in midfield with the fullbacks Johnson & Enriquez having to provide nearly all of that especially now that Stewart Downing has departed. Downing was considered a flop at the club but only Steven Gerrard started more games than him last season & it's not an ideal problem to have against Villa in particular.

(Brendan 'Envelope' Rodgers may find it hard to gain a victory away from the Anfield faithful)

Villa tended to struggle with balls into the box from out wide last year, including corners, so it's an ideal avenue to attack for most teams but with Weiman & Agbonlahor in advanced positions they should be able to defend from the front & keep Liverpool's fullbacks a bit quieter. Of course Liverpool are still dangerous with the classy operator Couinho & Gerrard, still capable of the spectacular, in midfield but Villa should be able to put men in against them & their defence will be happier to see the ball in front of them - they were relatively comfortable for long periods against a similar approach from Chelsea in the 2nd half on Wednesday.

Benteke is already on fire & his signing of a new contract looks the best bit of business done by a Premier League club this summer, with the young Belgian firing Villa have every chance of getting all 3 points here & with SportingBet & Paddy Power offering odds of 15/8 with the extra insurance of draw no bet this selection has to be advised. The fact Villa had to play in midweek is of course taken into account but at this stage of the season their players should be able to handle the quick turnaround & the extra football may come in handy whilst other teams try to shake off the pre-season rustiness.

Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town

In League One we see newly promoted Rotherham playing host to Shrewsbury in a clash that could be well be heavily influenced by the crucial home advantage. Shrewsbury ranked 20th in League One last season for points gained on the road whilst Rotherham ranked 4th at home in League Two & have started the season very respectably indeed.

(Rotherham's bruising centre forward Alex Revell could cause problems here)

Both teams gained their first wins of the season last week with Rotherham's 2-1 defeat of manager Steve Evans' former club Crawley particularly sweet for The Millers & that means Rotherham remain unbeaten thanks to a good draw with fancied Preston & two late goals away to Crewe salvaging a 3-3 draw & showing their battling qualities & good fitness levels to keep going to the end. Shrewsbury just don't seem to have many goals in their side, they didn't find the net in their first two games & their top scorer last season Marvin Morgan bagged just 7 goals with their number 9 Tom Bradshaw scoring his first goal in two years in their win against Swindon. We've already noted that Swindon appear to be a club in a bit of turmoil so we're not too impressed with that win & we reckon Graham Turner will be setting his team up not to lose rather than be proactive & aim for 3 points in this one.

Rotherham haven't looked bereft of ideas in attack so far this year & it's possible that their Irish midfielder Lee Frecklin could keep up his decent scoring record & the 6"3 forward Alex Revell poses a problem for most opposition defences & can link up well with either Nardiello or Agard. With the odds on offer at Evens with BetVictor (they're odds on everywhere else) Rotherham look worthy of a decent punt here to gain another victory in their push for successive promotions.

Selections:
Aston Villa to beat Liverpool draw no bet at 15/8 (Paddy Power & SportingBet)
Rotherham to beat Shrewsbury at Evens (BetVictor)

A Tale of Two Welsh Cities

An ace bit of Champions League action in midweek will be hard to follow up but we'll be getting excited if the two top Welsh sides can bring up a double for us in televised games on Saturday early & Sunday afternoon! If you aren't doing so already you can follow us on Twitter where you'll see us happily discussing betting in general plus football, horse racing & the NFL (got my tickets to both Wembley games later this year!) by clicking the Follow button above or finding us on there @LikeBuyingMoney.

Liverpool vs Swansea City

Many a shrewd punter (+ many people with two brain cells to rub together) has worked out that even thinking about backing Liverpool, at consistently shorter prices than they should be, for the last couple of seasons is a sure way to ruin & they look a side to avoid again this weekend when they take on Swansea at Anfield after a long & fruitless European trip to Russia.

(Swansea will want to make impressive loanee Jonathan de Guzman's signing permanent)

Liverpool haven't managed to beat a team in the top half of the table this season & Swansea sit two places & a point clear of them in the league & the Welsh side have been tough to beat holding Chelsea & Man United plus beating Arsenal already. Michael Laudrup has continued the good work Brendan Rodgers started at Swansea & added in some excellent signings, particularly the revelation that is Michu, to improve them in their 2nd top flight season in a row. The Swans possession stats remain excellent with their defenders as confident as their midfield players to play the short passes that frustrate opposition sides & limit the chances they concede. Ashley Williams has been particularly key at the back & Leon Britton has continued his good work from last season in midfield whilst the loan signing de Guzman has added another attacking dimension whilst being another who is confident on the ball.

Liverpool have only won one of their last five in the league & last weekend suffered a reverse at the hands of woefully out of form West Brom. The Reds got a lot of credit for 2-2 draws against Arsenal & Man City but in both games they quickly lost leads (from 2-0 up against Arsenal) & there looks to be a bit of vulnerability creeping in defensively - they've been merely average this season when they have been pretty resolute in past years. It's interesting to see Luis Suarez chirping up about wanting new contract talks so soon after signing a long term deal & the suspicion is that he's preparing the ground for a summer move to gain Champions League football, that's not good news for them as a club trying to move forwards & his recent form isn't good news for them as a club now as he's dropped off his electrifying early season performances.

Liverpool played a full strength side in their Europa League game & even though this is a Sunday game that hands Swansea an advantage especially as their possession game tires sides anyway, odds of 8/13 & shorter for a Liverpool win look plainly wrong. The wager looks to be Swansea on the draw no bet market at odds of 15/4, they draw a lot of games so getting the insurance of your money back with a draw looks better than taking 5/1 for a win.

Cardiff City vs Bristol City

Some regular Twitter followers will know that one of our number is a big Bluebirds fan but that isn't why we think they're a great bet when they take on lowly Bristol City, in what is a bit of a local derby at home in the early game on Saturday.

(Cardiff have themselves a player who was playing for England this time last year in Frazier Campbell)

Cardiff are looking certain for automatic promotion as they're 11 points clear at the top & they've lost just once in 15 league games whilst Bristol are 2nd from bottom & have been the worst away team this season with just 11 points from 15 games. Cardiff have some added incentive to beat Bristol too as they suffered a 4-2 defeat to the South West club early on in the season & it seems unlikely they'll be so slack defensively again as they've only conceded more than once in games in 6 of 30 games this year (that's 20% folks). Ben Turner & Kevin Naughton should both be available for selection for Cardiff & that will further bolster their solid back line & it is needed as Bristol have scored a surprising amount of goals for a club so near the bottom with their somewhat gung ho approach at times. Bristol will be hoping that joint top scorer Sam Baldock can gain fitness after a calf strain otherwise they'll be looking thin on the ground up front as their other main man Steve Davies is also a slight doubt after taking a knock.

Cardiff haven't necessarily been the most exciting team in terms of scoring goals but they have been rock solid & the signing of Frazier Campbell has added a little more firepower & another option for them. Cardiff look far superior to Bristol & the prices for teams with similar levels of disparity in the Premier League would have the better team as far shorter favourites than 4/7 - take that tempting carrot of a price that Coral (not "Corals" as even the people who work there often call them!) offer.



Selections:
Swansea City draw no bet to beat Liverpool at 15/4 (Coral)
Cardiff City to beat Bristol City at 4/7 (Coral)

Home Wins on the Horizon - Gills, Tigers & Mackems Ahoy!

We're back with picks for Saturday after being let down by Brentford on Thursday night even as they dominated chances thanks to an offside Leyton Orient goal & Brentford's inability to find the back of the net. Hopefully things will run more smoothly here as we avoid League One altogether & instead preview matches from League Two, the Championship & Saturday's late Premier League kickoff.

Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers


 (Gillingham skipper Danny Kedwell has 5 goals (all competitions) already this season)

Down in League Two, top of the table Gillingham host Bristol Rovers at the Priestfield Stadium. Last weekend we tipped up Gillingham away at Barnet & they didn't let us down with a comfortable 3-1 victory. The Gills have 13 points from a possible 15 so far with their only blip being a 1-1 draw with Chesterfield. Skipper Danny Kedwell & striking partner Deon Burton are in good goalscoring form with six league goals between them & midfielder Myles Weston has also chipped in with a couple. After relegation from League One Bristol Rovers have made a poor start to the season with two defeats & two draws so far & needed an injury time equaliser from substitute Fabian Broghammer to savage a 2-2 draw against Aldershot Town last Saturday. They are yet to keep a clean sheet & have conceded eight goals in the process so free scoring Gillingham look a reasonable price at 13/16 to put a few goals past them & keep up their impressive start.

 Hull City vs Millwall


(Abdoulaye Faye - strong at the back & always a threat at set pieces)


Steve Bruce's Hull City are looking to continue their solid start to the season as they entertain Millwall at the KC Stadium. Bruce has made a number of good signings this summer most notably ex-Rangers striker Sone Aluko, centre half Adboulaye Faye & most recently Irish midfielder Stephen Quinn. All three players starred last weekend as they put Championship pre-season favourites Bolton Wanderers to the sword in a comfortable 3-1 victory. Again this season Hull have looked solid at the back with centre half partnership of Faye & Alex Bruce already registering two clean sheets & should be able to cope with the Millwall strike force of Darius Henderson & Andy Keogh. Millwall have made a reasonable start with two wins & two defeats so far but look vulnerable at the back having conceded nine goals in five games in all competitions. Hull can use their solid base to take advantage of the soft Millwall defence & grab all three points at the best price of 23/20 with Betvictor.

Sunderland v Liverpool

Finally we come to the Premier League & the battle of the Northern Irish managers as Martin O'Neill's well organised Sunderland side play host to Brendan Rodgers' underachieving Liverpool. Until Liverpool prove that they can score goals they are a side to be avoided against whoever they're playing, the signing of Fabio Borini for £10m convinced no one at the time & his composure in front of goal has been lacking, Luis Suarez meanwhile pulled his old trick of hitting the woodwork whilst on international duty for Uruguay & doesn't look like the natural predator he was in Holland.

(Sunderland's James McClean is one of the Premier League's brightest young talents)

Sunderland have only had the two Premier League games thanks to their game with Reading being cancelled but they've gained draws at Arsenal & Swansea & should be much happier at home. The signing of Steven Fletcher from Wolves raised a few eyebrows thanks to the fee paid but he's reached double figures in his past two seasons in the league & that's impressive considering he was playing for basically a poor side, he started off in impressive fashion with a brace against the Swans. We like Stephane Sessegnon a lot & the attacking midfielder brings the best out in the players around him, James McClean could be one to benefit here as he looks to prove a point after his Twitter outburst when left out of the starting lineup for Ireland. We basically agree that it was ludicrous he couldn't secure a starting berth for ROI but he shouldn't have spoken out, at odds of 11/2 to score anytime it's worth backing the young Irishman.

Liverpool certainly do have a solid core & are strong at the back with Agger & Skrtel & although Reina seems to be increasingly susceptible to handling errors he's still one of the league's best. Steven Gerrard remains a first choice pick for Liverpool seemingly regardless of his performance levels though & he'll be more tired than most after (nearly) playing two full games for England. At his best Gerrard is still capable of winning matches single handedly with his Roy of the Rovers style but nondescript performances are becoming more regular & if he has one here the Reds could be in trouble. Sunderland should be fresher than most teams & a high energy performance can see them make their odds look a steal, back the Mackems at 9/4 to get the win.

Selections:
Gillingham to beat Bristol Rovers at 13/16 (Pinnacle)

Hull City to beat Millwall at 23/20 (BetVictor)

Sunderland to beat Liverpool at 9/4 (Various)
James McClean to score anytime at 11/2 (William Hill) in Sunderland v Liverpool game

Reliable Charlton set to hang Northern primates

Middlesbrough's defeat at Vicarage Road last weekend robbed of us a nice treble (our other selections, Everton and Yeovil eased home). We're back today with a couple of picks for you to get stuck into. Today is the final day of the regular season in both League One and Two, it should prove an exciting day for many teams and fans alike up and down the country.

(Chris Powell era is in full flow with the Championship awaiting)

In League One, there will be a festival atmosphere at The Valley for Charlton Athletic against Hartlepool. With promotion & the league title in the bag it just leaves Charlton with one final target of gaining three points & achieving 100+ league points for the season. A 90th minute equaliser from Preston's retiring Gary Alexander prevented Charlton chalking up a six consecutive victory last weekend. At home they have won their last four in a row & have won 14 of 20 in total but even more impressively they have only once failed to score in one of these games all season which doesn't bode well for a Hartlepool side who have failed to score in 40% of their matches this season. Even at the other end they have only scored 48 goals in 45 matches & the lack of craft in front of goals has meant an in-consistent season & mid table finish. Chris Powell & his players couldn't ask for a better opportunity to thank the fans & finish their perfect season with a comfortable home victory at the best odds of 8/13 with BetVictor & William Hill.

(Leader scorer Rene Howe will hope to be celebrating promotion to League One)

The final round of fixtures in League Two puts together a massive game at Edgar Street between Hereford United and Torquay. The game has consequences at both ends but unfortunately a win for either side may not be enough for them. Torquay need three points & hope Crawley fail to win at Accrington Stanley to gain automatic promotion whilst Hereford need the win & hope Barnet don't beat Burton Albion to avoid relegation to the Conference. Torquay will be relying on their excellent away record (2nd best in the league) of 11 victories & only conceding 24 goals in 22 matches to continue. What will also give confidence to Torquay fans is the fact that Hereford have the worst home record in the league where they have suffered 13 defeats in 22 matches. They have only won one of their last nine fixtures with a surprising away win at Crawley & have suffered five defeats. Torquay at the attractive price of 13/10 will pick up the three points & consign Hereford to the Conference but still have their fingers crossed that results go their away to gain automatic promotion.

Selections:

Charlton Athletic to beat Hartlepool at 8/13 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Torquay to beat Hereford United at 13/10 (BetVictor & William Hill)

Semi Final Showdown at Wembley

This weekend sees some intriguing ties throughout the leagues as teams continue to try to push for titles & promotions, playoffs & European places whereas at the other end of the tables the scrap to escape relegation becomes ever more desperate. Throw into that the FA Cup semi finals & there is plenty of action to get your betting teeth into, we're trying to help with a few picks that look reasonable at the prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above, it's a good way too keep up to date with our latest posts & join in with the sport & betting conversation.

(Crewe boss Steve Davis hopes the travelling fans can inspire another 3 points)

Down in League Two, Crewe Alexandra travel to Mose Rose to face Macclesfield Town, Crewe are outside the play-off places on goal difference from Oxford United on 66 points whilst Macclesfield are in the relegation spots & three points away from safety. Crewe are unbeaten in their last 12 league games & have won five of their last seven with the latest being a comfortable 3-0 home victory over Bristol Rovers after two consecutive 1-1 draws, on the road they are unbeaten in their last five with two of them ending in victories against Gillingham & Hereford. Hosts Macclesfield are in dire form & haven't registered a win since 2011, their last 19 league games have ended with 13 defeats & six draws, with their last three games in a row lost against Gillingham, Shrewsbury Town & Port Vale. Crewe can continue their fine form at the expense of woeful Macclesfield at a too big price of 5/4 with Stan James.

(It isn't easy to work out who will line up for Chelsea v Spurs, could it be Sideshow Bob?)

The big games of the weekend come in the FA Cup semi finals, with firstly Liverpool taking on Everton & then the utterly ridiculous 6pm kickoff on Sunday between Spurs & Chelsea. We're going to keep things relatively simple here, Spurs & Liverpool have been atrocious in 2012 whereas Chelsea have improved immeasurably since sacking AVB & Everton have produced their usual late season charge. It makes no sense at all that Liverpool are favourites for their game as David Moyes was able to rest players for their midweek game just as Kenny Dalglish was, there is talk of how Liverpool are prioritising the cup competitions but Moyes prioritised it so much he fielded an understength side in the Derby match between these two at Goodison in preparation for facing Sunderland! Everton have found a cutting edge now with Nikica Jelvic up front & the play in the team has improved a lot thanks to the return of Steven Pienaar, on loan from Spurs. Harry Redknapp has already won the competition with Portsmouth & would dearly love to again but the reason Spurs edge ahead for favouritism appears to be because of the commitments to the Champions League that Chelsea have, with Barcelona to face in the coming week. It however won't be easy for Spurs to suddenly turn on the style whichever Chelsea players they face here after yet another poor result, losing at home to Norwich, they looked to be turning it around with wins against poor Bolton & a fading Swansea but maybe that was a false dawn. We're going for a double of Everton to win against Liverpool (in 90 minutes) at great odds of 85/40 & Chelsea to qualify for the final, in what could be a trappy affair at 10/11 (double with BetVictor), it pays just about £60 to a £10 stake & is worth a little investment.

(Hotshot Rene Howe has delayed knee surgery to help push Torquay into League One)

Also in League Two, Torquay United entertain Southend United at Plainmoor, this is a massive match in the race for promotion to League One with Torquay sat in 2nd & Southend in 5th but only six points behind. Torquay are in good form with five wins, two draws & only one defeat to current league leaders Swindon Town in their last eight league games, they have won three of their last four with victories over Port Vale, Barnet & Accrington Stanley. The Gulls home form has seen 12 victories out of 21 & they have scored at least one goal in 95% of these matches, lately at home they are unbeaten in their last four & have won their last two in a row. Visitors Southend are going through an inconsistent spell & have been defeated three times in their last five league games with the latest being away at Bradford City 2-0, they have a good away record this season but in recent weeks they have lost their last two in a row & four of their last six. We believe that Torquay will be too strong for Southend & put further distance between the two sides at the best price of 13/10 with William Hill.

Selections:
Crewe Alexandra to beat Macclesfield Town at 5/4 (Stan James)
Everton to beat Liverpool (in 90 mins) & Chelsea to qualify over Spurs double at odds just shy of 5/1 (BetVictor)
Torquay United to beat Southend United at 13/10 (William Hill)

Rovers can pile more misery on Lacklustre Liverpool

The football just seems to keep going this week & we have had a look through this Tuesday's fixtures to come up with three bets that have a little bit of value about them. Think about this before placing your bets, how are a side that have less points than their rivals in 2012  in dreadful form 11/10 to win away yet another side that are psuhing for a title, with plenty more points & better form than their opponents 7/5 to win away? Sometimes it seems that the bookies do get it wrong & we have a duty as punters to take advantage - the results on an individual day may not come off but if you keep doing the right things you can turn a long term profit.

(Blackburn defender Grant Hanley will hope to keep Liverpool's misfiring strikers at bay)

You might not hink that it's possible that a side playing at home that have won twice as many league games in 2012 as their opponents could be 11/4 to win but that's precisely what we see as Blackburn Rovers face Liverpool at Ewood Park. To be fair it isn't difficult to have won twice as many as iverpool as they have just 2 league wins since the turn of the year & remember that they came against an absolutley dreadful Wolves side & Everton when the Toffees rested plenty of players, the Reds couldn't beat a thoroughly out of form Aston Villa at home on Saturday & facing a physical Blackburn side is not ideal just three days later. Liverpool have created chances in pretty much every game they've played but with Kuyt & Carroll at the sharp end plus Luis Suarez who doesn't seem to have packed his shooting boots along with his dribbling past 3 players at a time boots they are unlikely to start converting those chances anytime soon. Blackburn are obviously no great shakes & sit in the relegation zone but they've had 5 home wins which is as many as their rivals here & have some real quality going forward with Yakubu at the front end supported by the classy Junior Hoilett in midfield & they've looked better at the back since managing to ship out unhappy players, Ryan Nelsen & Chris Samba. Rovers held firm against champions-elect Manchester United for 80 minutes last Monday & were only stopped from scoring by some inspired David De Gea goalkeeping. Blackburn have to bounce back from a lame display against West Brom on Saturday but it's worth chancing at odds of 11/4 against this Liverpool side who look likely to finish bottom of the betting handicap table & who are looking like they could even finish in the bottom half if results aren't forthcoming & quick about it too!

(Goalscorer Ched Evans has 26 league goals & 7 in his last 5 games for Sheffield United)

In League One, Sheffield United travel to Spotland to face Rochdale, United will be looking for all three points to go back ahead of City rivals Wednesday into the second automatic promotion spot whilst Rochdale are rock bottom. United have won their last four league matches in a row & in striker Ched Evans they have a player bang in form having scored at least one in each of his last five games. The Blades are unbeaten in their last seven games & on the road they have won three of their last four with victories over Hartlepool, Notts County & Brentford. Hosts Rochdale are on the verge of relegation to League Two & have lost three of their last four league matches with the latest being a 3-1 defeat away at Yeovil Town, they've conceded at least one goal in each of their last seven games & at home they have lost two & drawn two of their last five. We expect Sheffield United at the general price of 5/6 to leapfrog above rivals Wednesday with a fifth consecutive victory at the expense of a poor Rochdale side.

(Reading's Mikele Leigertwood has 4 goals from midfield this season & 2 in the last 3)

In the Championship we see sutomatic promotion chasers Reading travel the short distance down South to face Brighton at their fantastic Falmer Stadium. Brighton are just about holding off a whole host of sides just below them for the final playoff spot but their recent form has not been great with just one win in their last 5 league games & 3 in 11, they'll be hoping that their better home form (11 wins from 20 games) will give them the advantage they'll need over red hot Reading. The Royals have won 12 of their last 14 & that has seen them rise right to the upper echelons of the league, they have a lot of attacking intent as can be seen by their 14 goals in their last 5 games & the January signing of Jason Roberts has really seemed to freshen up their front line. It won't be easy for Reading to win away here but they've recently stuck 4 in the back of the net away to Barnsley & West Ham which shows they'll come here to win & not settle for a draw which makes the odds against available a very good price. Brighton haven't been scoring enough this year with just 49 goals in their 41 games & their star striker Craig Mackail-Smith hasn't scored in the last 8 games, Reading should be able to play with freedom & odds of 7/5 for the potential champions is outstanding value.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Liverpool at 11/4 (Skybet)
Sheffield United to beat Rochdale at 5/6 (various)
Reading to beat Brighton & Hove Albion at 7/5 (various)

Northern travellers to face away day blues

Wednesday sees some more football action & we're looking for a pair of home victories to set us up nicely for the weekend, let us know via Twiter what your best weekend bets are to & we'll post in a followers' blog, send the picks through usin the hashtag #likebuyingmoney & we'll pick it up.

(Ipswich's Grant Leadbitter has three goals in his last three matches)

In the Championship, Ipswich Town host Burnley at Portman Road, the sides sit in 15th & 14th respectively & each have 10 games to try & make a late bid for a play-off place. Ipswich have had a disappointing season really but have been in fine form since the end of January with six victories in nine league games & only one defeat, a late winner from Aaron Cresswell gave them the three points over Peterborough after two good away draws at Hull City & leaders Southampton. In front of the home faithful the Tractor Boys have won their last four in a row & are unbeaten in five. Visitors Burnley played out a 0-0 draw at Cardiff in a dire match which stretches their winless streak to five matches after three defeats & two draws, on the road they have lost three of their last four matches & they have lost 50% of their away games this season. We expect Ipswich to be too strong for Burnley & go above them in the league at a general price of evens.

(Djibril Cisse celebrates & QPR fans will be doing cartwheels if they beat Liverpool)

Once again Liverpool look overrated by the bookies in a league match, this time away to Queens Park Rangers, the Reds are best odds of 5/6 to win but taking odds on about a team that have only won 2 of their last 9 league games doesn't appeal too much to us. Neither side score many although QPR have tried to do something about that with the signing's of Zamora & ex-Liverpool player Djibril Cisse, now that Cisse's back following his ban he does add a bit of quality & much needed threat up front. Mark Hughes has had plenty of time to plan for this game as QPR haven't played since a somewhat unfortunate loss to Bolton on the 10th & they have pretty much a full line-up to pick from other than the injured DJ Campbell & Heidar Helguson. Liverpool meanwhile only played Stoke on Sunday & are going to be without Glen Johnson & Daniel Agger in defence again as well as their most dangerous player going forward in Craig Bellamy. Boylesports are going a standout 4/1 about a home victory for QPR & those odds are just about  big enough to be of interest with it looking a good time to face Liverpool who've now qualified for Europe thanks to their League Cup win & look altogether more focused when it comes to Cup matches.

Selections:
Ipswich Town to beat Burnley at evens (various)
Queens Park Rangers to beat Liverpool at 4/1 (Boylesports)

Happy days for one Bristol side, Bad Times for the other

We were maybe a little ambitious with our Blackburn to beat Man City bet last week but at 18/1 it was a value pick & that's always in our mind when picking out bets, often it's not the biggest odds that offer value though as could be seen in midweek with an outstanding price of Evens on Charlton to beat rock bottom Chesterfield! We've got three picks this Saturday starting off early with the 12.45 kickoff in the Premier League between Carling Cup winners Liverpool & Champions League place chasers Arsenal, hopefully that can get us & you off to a nice start & more profitable football betting.

 (The arrival of Mark McGhee has seen an upturn in fortunes for Bristol Rovers)

In League Two, Bristol Rovers host Macclesfield Town at the Memorial Stadium. Rovers are in 16th place & eight points above Macclesfield. With the addition of Mark McGhee as manager Rovers have put together a fine run of form, in their last eight league matches they have won five, drawn two and suffered just one defeat away at 3rd place Shrewsbury Town. In this time they have built a strong defensive unit & have only conceded four goals, at home they are unbeaten in their last four having picked up two wins & two draws. Visitors Macclesfield are bottom of the form table having been beaten 8 times in their last 10 matches & only picking up two points & their away form has been dire all season with 12 defeats from 16 matches. We expect Bristol Rovers to run out comfortable winners against a poor Macclesfield side & provide punters with a 'weekend banker' at the odds of 4/6.

(Liverpool have just 4 wins from 12 home league games & Andy Carroll is hardly helping)

Liverpool take on inconsistent Arsenal at Anfield in the early kickoff on Saturday & there might be a temptation to think that their League Cup win will lead to them kicking on but the odds on offer of them winning this one are truly dreadful for a number of reasons. Liverpool have won just 4 of their 12 home league games & they have come against 3 relegation candidates in Bolton, Wolves & QPR plus an understrength Newcastle side. The Reds have won just 2 of 9 their last 9 league games & to put it bluntly really aren't that good & with captain & talisman Steven Gerrard injured on England duty they will undisputably be weakened. Arsenal are also coming off a morale boosting result with their extraordinary comeback in the North London derby over Spurs. The Gunners can't claim to be consistent but they eventually appear to have their first choice back 4 in place with Vermaelen & Sagna both fit & with Liverpool only scoring twice or more in 9 of their 25 games they might not be able to exploit Arsenal's greatest weakness. Liverpool are currently trading at around 2.1 (11/10) on Betfair & have to be a lay for anyone on the exchange at anything at 2.2 (5/4) or lower, their price is completely false when you look at their league form & lack of goals & it should be remembered they needed extra time & a penalty shootout to overcome a Championship side for that Cup win.

(Ipswich duo Michael Chopra & Jay Emmanuel-Thomas are both in red hot goalscoring form)

In the Championship, Ipswich Town entertain Bristol City at Portman Road, Ipswich are just below mid table whilst Bristol City have slipped towards the relegation places & are now only three points above the trap door. The Tractor Boys are having a disappointing season but had won four in a row before losing to the current form team Brighton last weekend. They impressively dished out hammerings to both West Ham & Cardiff City in these four wins; with ex-Premiership striker Michael Chopra bagging five goals. They are unbeaten in their last three home matches & have scored a impressive ten goals. Bristol City have really struggled in recent weeks & they current form reads five defeats in their last six matches. They are conceding goals at an alarming rate having conceded three times in four of their last five & away from home they haven't picked up any points on the road since December losing their last four, we can see Ipswich having too much firepower for a demoralised City side at a general price of 5/6.

Selections:
Bristol Rovers to beat Macclesfield Town at 4/6 (Various)
Lay Liverpool to beat Arsenal at 2.2 (5/4) & shorter on Betfair
Ipswich Town to beat Bristol City at 5/6 (Various)

Title Challenge to get Rolling at Old Trafford

 This weekend looks like being highly competitive in the Premier League with only 4 of the 10 games having odds on shots at the best prices, it certainly is tight at the top & not easy to pick winners, we love the lower leagues though & bring two picks from outside of the top flight plus look at the big game between United & Liverpool. As ever you can keep up to date with our postings by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by clicking the button at the top of the page, we love to have a chat & it also means that you can join in with your own picks for our weekly followers' tips blog!

 (Happy soul Antonio Valencia is in top form for United)

The big game of the weekend sees Manchester United host Liverpool at Old Trafford in another renewal of the fiercest rivalry in English football just two weeks after Liverpool came out on top at Anfield in the FA Cup. Both sides have some reason to be optimistic, Liverpool have made it past Man City over two legs to reach the Carling Cup Final & prevailed over United in the FA Cup, their league form has been more ordinary with just one win in 2012 & that came over relegation battlers Wolves. United got over a sticky period where they suffered a particularly bad injury crisis & lost to Newcastle & Blackburn in successive games to have a nice run & other than losing in the cup they've had some good results, only dropping points in the draw with Chelsea. Last Sunday they showed all of their resolve to fight back from 3 goals down at Stamford Bridge & played some nice football, being unlucky to be 1-0 down at half time, they've started slowly after the break in too many games though & again conceded early, Ferguson will be keen to eliminate those lapses. Luis Suarez is back from his ban & could start here after beginning on the bench in the dour draw with Spurs on Monday, he could have won it at the end with a header but once again showed his tendency for wastefulness in front of goal, his all round play has been excellent but just 5 league goals tells its own story.

(Pepe Reina is one of the league's finest & could have his hands full in this one)

Liverpool have a clean slate of injuries & their back four & goalkeeper continue to impress & look as solid as any around, United will likely start with the less than convincing De Gea in goal with Lindegaard out & they clearly miss Nemanja Vidic at the centre of defence, Liverpool may not have the firepower to punish them though as they've only scored two or more in 9 of their 24 league games. United have multiple options up front but seem to have settled on a Welbeck-Rooney combination with the threat of poacher Hernandez to come off the bench when needed, whoever plays should have good service with Valencia in top form & Ashley Young returning to fitness. United still lack the combative qualities that can be key in games like this in the middle of the park but Scholes short retirement seems to have reinvigorated him as he's playing some way above the level he did last year & even Michael Carrick seems to have found some quality & consistency to his game. This could be another tight one but if United can carry forward the momentum of their great comeback last week & feed off the inevitably raucous atmosphere they can make odds of 9/10 look generous, there is a reason for there being 16 points & 5 places between the two sides & the home team can make that superiority show.

(Gaffer Chris Powell - all smiles with Charlton leading League One)

In League One, current leaders Charlton Athletic visit Chesterfield at the B2net stadium. The fixture sees top against bottom with a staggering 41 points between them. Charlton look on course for promotion this season as they hold a nine point gap over 3rd place Huddersfield currently. They are in good current form with four victories in their last five league games (including wins against both the Sheffield clubs). They have a excellent away record so far this season after collecting 35 points from a possible 45 with eleven victories. Hosts Chesterfield have in fairness improved in the recent games with two wins in their last three games but in their last 20 games they have only collected 12 points after suffering twelve defeats. We expect Charlton to show they are a cut above a struggling Chesterfield side at a very reasonable price of 10/11.

(Rovers Eliot Richards will be looking for his third goal in as many games)

In League Two, Bristol Rovers entertain Morecambe at the Memorial Ground, both sides are just below the mid table places and will be hoping for a late assault on the play-off places rather than being dragged into the relegation scrap. The Pirates now have Mark McGhee in charge after an ill fated spell from Paul Buckle who left the club in early January after four defeats in a row. In their last four league matches they have won three including a excellent 2-0 away victory at high flying Cheltenham & drawn one. Visitors Morecambe started the season on fire but have tailed off dramatically in recent months. They are on a run which has seen six defeats, three draws & only one victory in their last ten league games. They have lost two of their last three with a poor home defeat to bottom of the table Northampton. Bristol Rovers can continue their recent revival against Morecambe at the best price of 6/5 with Coral.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Liverpool at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Charlton Athletic to beat Chesterfield at 10/11 (Paddy Power/Coral)
Bristol Rovers to beat Morecambe at 6/5 (Coral)