Goals to fly in for Swans & Magpies

Last Sunday was a good one for punters as Swansea won the League Cup in easy fashion & showed the odds available (as big as 4/9 against a side 3 leagues below) were just plain wrong - it's rare that happens though & it's normally harder work to find value, we're back on the trail this weekend & have a couple of selections for you.

Remember Cheltenham Festival is just a week or so around the corner & we'll be bringing you a blog & bets on each of the days as we get into the swing of things for jump racing's biggest week of the year! We'll be asking for your very best bets of the festival over the next week for a special followers' blog so if you aren't already make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney to join in - either find us there or click the Follow button above. Start sending us your best bets along with reason & the hashtag #LikeBuyingMoney & we'll include.

Swansea City vs Newcastle United

Swansea go back to the Liberty Stadium as conquering heroes after winning the League Cup at Wembley this past Sunday but they face a far higher calibre of opposition in a resurgent Newcastle United side whose form has seen a dramatic upswing after their transfer dealings in the January transfer window.

(Right back Mathieu Debuchy looks a quality signing for the Magpies)

Moussa Sissoko has been the signing who's made the most eye-catching start to his St James Park career with 3 league goals already & he's also helping to bring the best out of striker Papiss Cisse who can blow hot & cold. Although Sissoko has been the star new signing so far Gouffran has also added another dimension up front & Mathieu Debuchy is real football playing right back & he's been important in bringing about 3 wins in their last 4, only losing to in form Spurs in that sequence. The games have all been high scoring too with 3, 5, 3 & 6 goals as Alan Pardew seems to have recognised his players are far more comfortable in attack than defence, they have a nice mix of physically gifted players & technical maestros to think they could make a decent side & they'll have enough to worry Swansea.

(Swansea will want to use their League Cup win as a platform to build on)

Swansea's success in the League Cup was great for them, pre-game we suggested the final was a formality & it worked out like that, but it is testament to Michael Laudrup & the club that they took the competition seriously & were deserved victors. They need to carry that feel-good factor through for the rest of the season as the higher up the table they finish the more prize money they'll receive & the more attractive a proposition they'll be to potential signings (& their coveted crop of current players!). They'll surely play a stronger team than when up against Liverpool two weeks back & they've got the players in their first eleven to compete against anyone (the squad as a whole needs strengthening though), Michu will be looking for his 16th league goal of the season & Nathan Dyer will surely still be pumped up from his brace in the final. If Swansea do concede & fall behind there's no way their fans will allow them to be passive & accept defeat so we can see a high tempo game on the cards.

The home fans will be in full voice for the Welsh side & that could mean that they play with a little more adrenaline than usual which could just maybe set this up to be a stormer, there have been 24 goals in their last 7 home league games & Newcastle have also looked incisive in recent games so 4/5 about over 2.5 goals looks a decent punt.

Morecambe vs Rochdale

Down in League Two, Morecambe entertain Rochdale at the Globe Arena. Morecambe are in 10th place currently still have a faint outside chance of a play-off place whilst are down in 15th position.

 (Morecambe's Jack Redshaw will be looking to keep up his better than 1 goal in 2 scoring ratio)

Morecambe suffered a 3-2 defeat to in-form Burton Albion on Tuesday night but after conceding soft goals they fought back strongly after the introduction of Ryan Williams, Lewis Alessandra & Jack Redshaw to score two goals in the last ten minutes & we would expect the impressive trio to start this weekend. Sadly it put an end of a run of seven points in their last three games including an impressive 1-0 away victory at promotion chasing Port Vale. They have only suffered four defeats at home all season, in 17 matches, & they have a decent record against sides who are lower than them in the league (W6, D5 & L1).

Visitors Rochdale suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home against Accrington Stanley & it's been typical of their recent form since the turn of the year where have only won once & suffered five defeats. On the road they have struggled all season & they have failed to pick up any points in five of their last eight away games. They are leaky on the road & have conceded on average two goals per game which means results are always going to be hard to come by.

We expect Morecambe to be too strong for a leaky Rochdale side & grab the three points which will keep their small glimmer of hope in the play-off chase at the best odds of 13/10.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Swansea City vs Newcastle United at 4/5 (SkyBet, Bet365 & Stan James)
Morecambe to beat Rochdale at 13/10 (SkyBet & BetVictor)

Super Swans can ruin Bantams cup dream

We were scuppered last weekend by Brian Laudrup's very weakened team selection for his Swansea side against Liverpool & it served a reminder that you have to take in as much information up to the betting event as possible before laying down your hard worked for cash. Of course that does come with the caveat of it being relevant information, if you ever read or hear stats about how teams are 'bogey sides' or a player happens to have scored plenty of times against an opposing side then try to ignore this info that may have been gathered over several years of fixtures where personnel changes have taken place & are more to do with chance than true trends - beware 'trash stats'.

Blackburn Rovers vs Leeds United

This is an interesting game with two slightly erratic teams in terms of form who can both come up with good results & then  lose to sides you'd expect them to overpower but there's good reason to believe that Blackburn may be a bit of value against poor travellers Leeds.

(Grant Hanley can dish out some punishment for Blackburn against Leeds)

On away form only Leeds are 23rd in the Championship & they've conceded an average of nearly two goals a game (30 in 16) on the road & here they'll come up against the fearsome young forward Jordan Rhodes. Rhodes isn't top scorer this season in the Championship but he is surely the best forward & maybe the league's best player full stop - he's been lethal for years & will prey on any weaknesses in the Leeds defence. The Leeds defence really is quite young with no one aged over 26 in their regular back four & whilst keeper Paddy Kenny is experienced we've never been great fans of his & overall there's a little bit of a lack of quality back there.

Blackburn meanwhile have tried to do things about improving their defence, it's of course not been helped by various managerial changes but the replacement of Paul Robinson as the starting keeper is a sensible decision & Scott Dann & Grant Hanley are some clunking great centre backs who should thrive in this league with the right managerial team behind them. Leeds lost Robert Snodgrass to Norwich in the summer & striker Luciano Becchio followed him in the January window & it means that a little too much now rests on Ross McCormack's shoulders. The two sides are likely to have a good scrap in midfield but we can see Blackburn being more able to take the chances that arise & they should be a little more rested after playing on Saturday & Tuesday versus Leeds' Sunday & Wednesday schedule. With home advantage behind them Blackburn are the team to be on & the Lancashire side can go above their West Yorkshire rivals with a win at odds of Evens.

The League Cup Final - Bradford City vs Swansea City

Ahhhh, the romance of a cup final & the chance of some lower league underdogs coming up with a famous victory against a top flight side... nah, we're not having any of it! Swansea are a very good 'footballing' side with great passing ability & are one of the country's best at retaining possession, Bradford may have been able to give some unprepared teams a hard time at Valley Parade but they are surely lambs to the slaughter on the wide open spaces of Wembley against Laudrup's men.

(Michu can help Swansea celebrate their first major cup win on Sunday)

As we mentioned at the top we were stung by Laudrup's team selection last Sunday where he rested key players including Ashley Williams, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Wayne Routledge & super striker Michu, but it looks like it'll pay dividends with those players fresh & healthy for what has been described as the biggest game in the club's history. We personally don't see why there was any need to rest players for a game taking place a week later against opposition three leagues below, particularly as it wasn't like they were taking on one of the league's big hitting sides, but it was done & it will allow a performance here of high intensity from the start & Laudrup has indicated they will take the initiative.

It's been a pretty middling season for Bradford in the league & they'll be hoping for some more magic from their top scorer Nahki Wells & another inspired performance between the sticks from experienced keeper Matt Duke who was excellent in their quarter & semi final matches. It seems difficult though & we like Swansea on the handicap with a one goal deficit at odds of 11/10 with Ladbrokes, they've managed two or more goal wins 6 times in the league this season against far better opposition & can out-pass & outplay the Bantams throughout here.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Leeds United at Evens (General)
Swansea City to beat Bradford City with -1 goal on the match handicap at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

A Tale of Two Welsh Cities

An ace bit of Champions League action in midweek will be hard to follow up but we'll be getting excited if the two top Welsh sides can bring up a double for us in televised games on Saturday early & Sunday afternoon! If you aren't doing so already you can follow us on Twitter where you'll see us happily discussing betting in general plus football, horse racing & the NFL (got my tickets to both Wembley games later this year!) by clicking the Follow button above or finding us on there @LikeBuyingMoney.

Liverpool vs Swansea City

Many a shrewd punter (+ many people with two brain cells to rub together) has worked out that even thinking about backing Liverpool, at consistently shorter prices than they should be, for the last couple of seasons is a sure way to ruin & they look a side to avoid again this weekend when they take on Swansea at Anfield after a long & fruitless European trip to Russia.

(Swansea will want to make impressive loanee Jonathan de Guzman's signing permanent)

Liverpool haven't managed to beat a team in the top half of the table this season & Swansea sit two places & a point clear of them in the league & the Welsh side have been tough to beat holding Chelsea & Man United plus beating Arsenal already. Michael Laudrup has continued the good work Brendan Rodgers started at Swansea & added in some excellent signings, particularly the revelation that is Michu, to improve them in their 2nd top flight season in a row. The Swans possession stats remain excellent with their defenders as confident as their midfield players to play the short passes that frustrate opposition sides & limit the chances they concede. Ashley Williams has been particularly key at the back & Leon Britton has continued his good work from last season in midfield whilst the loan signing de Guzman has added another attacking dimension whilst being another who is confident on the ball.

Liverpool have only won one of their last five in the league & last weekend suffered a reverse at the hands of woefully out of form West Brom. The Reds got a lot of credit for 2-2 draws against Arsenal & Man City but in both games they quickly lost leads (from 2-0 up against Arsenal) & there looks to be a bit of vulnerability creeping in defensively - they've been merely average this season when they have been pretty resolute in past years. It's interesting to see Luis Suarez chirping up about wanting new contract talks so soon after signing a long term deal & the suspicion is that he's preparing the ground for a summer move to gain Champions League football, that's not good news for them as a club trying to move forwards & his recent form isn't good news for them as a club now as he's dropped off his electrifying early season performances.

Liverpool played a full strength side in their Europa League game & even though this is a Sunday game that hands Swansea an advantage especially as their possession game tires sides anyway, odds of 8/13 & shorter for a Liverpool win look plainly wrong. The wager looks to be Swansea on the draw no bet market at odds of 15/4, they draw a lot of games so getting the insurance of your money back with a draw looks better than taking 5/1 for a win.

Cardiff City vs Bristol City

Some regular Twitter followers will know that one of our number is a big Bluebirds fan but that isn't why we think they're a great bet when they take on lowly Bristol City, in what is a bit of a local derby at home in the early game on Saturday.

(Cardiff have themselves a player who was playing for England this time last year in Frazier Campbell)

Cardiff are looking certain for automatic promotion as they're 11 points clear at the top & they've lost just once in 15 league games whilst Bristol are 2nd from bottom & have been the worst away team this season with just 11 points from 15 games. Cardiff have some added incentive to beat Bristol too as they suffered a 4-2 defeat to the South West club early on in the season & it seems unlikely they'll be so slack defensively again as they've only conceded more than once in games in 6 of 30 games this year (that's 20% folks). Ben Turner & Kevin Naughton should both be available for selection for Cardiff & that will further bolster their solid back line & it is needed as Bristol have scored a surprising amount of goals for a club so near the bottom with their somewhat gung ho approach at times. Bristol will be hoping that joint top scorer Sam Baldock can gain fitness after a calf strain otherwise they'll be looking thin on the ground up front as their other main man Steve Davies is also a slight doubt after taking a knock.

Cardiff haven't necessarily been the most exciting team in terms of scoring goals but they have been rock solid & the signing of Frazier Campbell has added a little more firepower & another option for them. Cardiff look far superior to Bristol & the prices for teams with similar levels of disparity in the Premier League would have the better team as far shorter favourites than 4/7 - take that tempting carrot of a price that Coral (not "Corals" as even the people who work there often call them!) offer.



Selections:
Swansea City draw no bet to beat Liverpool at 15/4 (Coral)
Cardiff City to beat Bristol City at 4/7 (Coral)

Can City's Defence Clean Sheet up their act?

We're only just into the football season but plenty of teams are already being acclaimed or damned & maybe some of those sides will show that making cast iron statements based on just 2 or 3 games isn't wise as we move on in the next few weeks & months. By Saturday all of the transfer business will have been sorted & we'll know exactly what players teams have until December at least, we've got some more bets up as we look to improve after a decidedly dodgy start (not helped by some decidedly dodgy keeping by Messrs Green & Jaaskelainen!) & we're keen not to fall into a trap of basing everything on a few games played so far.

Manchester City vs Queens Park Rangers

In the day's late game we see a rematch of the incredible game on the last day of the season as Man City host QPR at the Etihad, QPR nearly denied City the title that day but we don't see them getting close this time

(Somewhat unfairly maligned on arrival - Joleon Lescott has become an integral part of Man City's defence)

This is a matchup between the teams with last season's best home record & worst away record & that bodes ominously badly for Mark Hughes's men especially with City looking to bounce back after drawing at Anfield. City will again be without Sergio Aguero up front but our antepost top scorer tip Carlos Tevez is looking razor sharp & should prove hard to stop for QPR's somewhat porous defence that conceded 66 goals in the league last year. QPR have made many signings this year, of mainly older players with Premier League experience, & we reckon they'll be alright in the end but may take a few games to gel whereas City are very much an established unit & have looked very good going forwards.

City haven't had any problems in attack so far but he may be slightly concerned that the team have conceded two goals in their opening two games & he experimented with a back three last week as he had done in may pre season games. Mancini will be confident they'll score here & so we expect him to have drilled his players on the defensive side of the game this week as he looks to get a clean sheet & shut any critics up. City control a lot of games possession wise, have a fine defence & a very good keeper in Joe Hart in behind - it's easy to see how they ended with 11 clean sheets in their 19 home games last year & we reckon they're in for another in this one.

Odds of 5/4 about a Man City win whilst keeping a clean sheet look an excellent bet especially when you can only get 11/8 with a -2 head start which shows how much the bookies think they have in hand over the visitors. We can't see past a City win & Tevez can bag another, odds of 4/1 for him to be first scorer look fair but we can't recommend it with so many other potential scorers & Super Mario on the penalties too.

Swansea City vs Sunderland

(Michael Laudrup chose not to take part in Denmark's 1992 Euro win - is he the best decision maker?)

Elsewhere in the Premier League we see on-song Swansea take on Sunderland at home & there will be plenty of form merchants believing that the Swans are a good bet after thumping 5-0 & 3-0 victories in their opening two league games & a win in the League Cup too. A top price of 5/4 is available for the home team but we're not sure that offers a great deal of value for a side that were tipped up by many to struggle this season, they've had a nice start but have been fortunate to come up against QPR who were dreadful in their opener & then West Ham gifted them a two goal lead through a keeping & then defensive error whilst otherwise looking just as competitive until then.

We've seen plenty of commentators going a bit over the top about Swansea & reckon that Martin O'Neill will have his men well drilled to stop their passing game & soak up pressure just like they did at Arsenal in their opening fixture.We think that the Mackems have made a wonderful signing in Adam Johnson who is right up there in terms of skilful English players & their other big signing, Steven Fletcher, will relish the service he'll get from Johnson, James McClean & the unselfish & inventive Stephane Sessegnon. Sunderland have also looked to shore up their back line with the signing of Carlos Cuellar & he'll provide some cover & competition to some somewhat injury prone players at the back.

O'Neill's side coped well with Arsenal & they are clearly a superior outfit to Swansea who play a similar style, they missed their next league game against Reading due to a waterlogged pitch but that just meant more preparation time for this game & they won well in the League Cup the other night. Sunderland mightn't be too adventurous going forwards themselves & that means the draw at odds of 12/5 looks a big player in the market for us & this could well end up a goalless stalemate, no goalscorer is available at 9/1 & is worth a small bet.

Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient

In League One, promoted Crawley Town take on Leyton Orient at the Broadfield Stadium, both sides played higher league opposition this week in the Capital One Cup & now return to League One where Crawley are 7th & Leyton Orient are second from bottom after three games played.

(Summer signing Gary Alexander celebrates his brace against Scunthorpe)

Despite losing manager Sean O'Driscoll to Nottingham Forest late in the summer the appointment of Richie Barker from rivals Bury could prove a shrewd move with his knowledge of the league. His side bounced back from a 3-0 drubbing away at Swindon Town with an excellent hard fought win at Doncaster Rovers 1-0 to record their second league victory of the season. It's also their second clean sheet & striking duo Gary Alexander & Nicky Ajose are in good form with three of their four league goals.

Leyton Orient game last weekend was postponed in unusual circumstances when visitors Hartlepool coach was stuck in traffic. This leaves them with two defeats against Tranmere Rovers (3-1) & Stevenage (0-1) from two games in the league so far. Their only league goal has been a late consolation penalty & they seem to have a long hard season ahead of them.

Crawley at home with strikers in-form should be too strong for an average Leyton Orient outfit & can collect the three points at best odds of 8/11, they'll be buoyed by a fabulous win against Bolton in the League Cup & should win easily here.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Queens Park Rangers to nil at 5/4 (Skybet)
Swansea v Sunderland - Draw at 12/5 (Various)
Crawley Town to beat Leyton Orient at 8/11 (Coral, Totesport & Betfred)

No goalscorer at 9/1 in the Swansea v Sunderland game at 9/1 (Bet365, Skybet & Ladbrokes)

Taking a Hammer to Swans - Is that even legal?

It's not been an entirely predictable start to the new football season & that unpredictability is part of what makes it exciting, with just one or two rounds of games played there isn't too much recent form to base decisions on & we think there may be some slightly false prices available based on single performances. We've got selections from the Premier League & lower down the ladder as we look to start the ball rolling on a profit front for the year. You can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney where we keep you up to date with any blog posts & talk about sports & betting in general, hopefully we'll also be getting some competitions running for the new season soon!

Swansea City vs West Ham United

(Big Sam might take a little extra pleasure in beating Swansea who, supposedly, play 'the right way')

One team that people certainly seem to be getting carried away with after their first game is Michael Laudrup's Swansea City after they thrashed QPR 5-0 at Loftus Road, it certainly was impressive but they are facing a different proposition in West Ham United back home at the Liberty Stadium. Sam Allardyce's side along with Stoke play probably the most different type of football to Swansea's slick passing style as is possible & will nearly always have less than 50% possession so won't be unduly concerned whilst Swansea hold onto the ball. Newcastle United won here in the league last season whilst only having 32% of the ball & West Ham will have every chance of doing the same with their long balls & potent threat at set pieces.

Swansea really played well against QPR but it should be noted that the defensive display from the London side was comedic at best with ex-Hammer Rob Green letting a real soft one in to start the rout  unsettle his defenders at the same time, Mark Hughes clearly knows he has problems in defence & has moved for Ricardo Carvalho & Michael Dawson to rectify it. New signing Michu bagged two last week & is being hailed already but he never really fired them in until last season for Real Mallorca (14 league goals in 4 years prior in the Spanish 2nd tier) & caution should be taken before thinking he's their cutting edge. Wayne Routledge was also impressive last week but rarely puts two good performances in a row in & similarly whilst Nathan Dyer also scored twice he's only got 21 goals in his 227 game career. We basically don't think it will be as easy for the Swans to get the better of West Ham's big centre back pairing of Winston Reid (6"3) & James Collins (6"4) & they'll also have plenty to deal with at the other end of the pitch.

Modibo Maigo could get his first start for the Hammers after coming on as a sub against Villa & he reportedly has considerable talent with Newcastle having made a move for him before it stalling upon a medical. Other than Maigo, Big Sam has plenty of choice up front & can pick from Nicky Maynard, Ricardo Vaz Te, Carlton Cole & Freddy Piquionne to try to form a strategy to win here. Captain Kevin Nolan will also score his share this year & we think West Ham have a great chance of breaching the Swansea defence & we're unconvinced about the home side's goal threat when not playing against porous QPR defences. If West Ham can score it'll make it difficult for Swansea to win so taking the Hammers on the draw no bet market at 12/5 is the selection.

Notts County vs Walsall

Down in League One, Notts County entertain Walsall at Meadow Lane, lthough still early days in the new season the Magpies have made a confident start with a perfect start & six points whilst Walsall have only picked up a solitary point.

(Skipper Neal Bishop scored the Magpies second against Hartlepool in midweek)

More importantly, looking at a longer term trend, Notts County manager Keith Curle has a nice win ratio of 63% with twelve victories from 19 matches & County have made a number of decent signings in the summer whilst crucially keeping hold of sought after midfielders Alan Judge & Jeff Hughes. New signings Bartosz Bialkowski, Gary Liddle, Dean Leacock & Andre Boucaud have all made instant impacts but striker Francios Zoko has been the most impressive with two goals in two games. He came off in the comfortable 2-0 win over Hartlepool in midweek but only as a precautionary measure & will hopefully be back to lead the line & continue to build his relationship with Lee Hughes as they look to strike up what could be a formidable partnership.

Walsall have struggled in recent seasons & only narrowly escaped relegation last season on the penultimate day. With no cash to spend; manager Dean Smith is facing a long, hard season & they have made the expected slow start. A heavy 3-0 home defeat against Doncaster was followed by a draw with Oldham who themselves aren't going to trouble the top half. Saddlers keeper David Grof has been given a warning this week that his place is at risk after a number of errors & this can only create indecision & panic in a defence which is average at best. Notts County have the players & confidence to beat a poor Walsall side & continue setting the pace in League One at the reasonable odds of 4/5.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Swansea City draw no bet at 12/5 (General)
Notts County to beat Walsall at 4/5 (Stan James & Coral)

Shots & Goals - a Winning Combination

We get off to an early start this football weekend with games this Easter Friday & we've looked at a League Two game plus the Premiership clash between Swansea & Newcastle to get some good bets in & money in our pockets in anticipation of another bookie bashing weekend. Now the question for the weekend is are we brave enough to make a case for either woeful side in the game between Liverpool & Villa this Saturday...........?

 

(Gaffer Dean Holdsworth is hoping to sneak Aldershot into a playoff place)

In League Two Aldershot Town host Port Vale at the Recreation Ground. Aldershot need a strong finish to give them a chance of a playoff spot as they are eight points behind with a game in hand on 7th place whilst Port Vale in 17th position. The Shots have won three of their last four league games & also gained a good away point at Shrewsbury Town last weekend, it's their home form which is most impressive of late after winning their last six in a row & unbeaten in their last seven - in these seven matches they have only conceded one goal in a 4-1 victory over Barnet. Visitors Port Vale have financial problems off the pitch & have struggled in recent weeks where they have suffered four defeats in their last five league matches, away from home they are winless in their last three matches & have been beaten in their last two by Torquay United & Crawley Town. We expect Aldershot Town to be too strong for Port Vale & push towards the playoff places at the general price of evens.

(Gylfi Sigurdsson has been a happy, goalscoring chap since joining Swansea on loan)

In Friday's Premier League game we see the two sides who've probably outperformed expectations more than any others this season when 10th placed Swansea City host 6th placed Newcastle United at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea have outperformed sides with better individual players on many occasions already this year with their excellent technical game where they starve opponents of the ball by keeping possession for long periods, Newcastle should however be prepared for that as they showed on Sunday when coming out victorious even though Liverpool had much of the play in the opening 20 minutes. One of the key parts of Newcastle's success has been their great chance conversion, although only 11th in shots per game (12.06) they are the league's 6th top scorers with 1.48 per game & that isn't surprising with the red hot Cisse now in the side to partner the excellent Demba Ba. Swansea don't have strikers of the calibre of Ba & Cisse but Danny Graham is now in double figures in the league & Gylfi Sigurdsson has 6 in 11 league starts since his loan move from Hoffenheim. Goals are key in this game for us as we like the odds against available on over 2.5 goals, it may seem a stretch as Swansea have been excellent defensively for the most part at home with just 12 conceded but with a total of 31 goals in 15 games at the Liberty Stadium that is just averaging over 2 a game & Newcastle's games have been averaging 2.83 goals & with Ben Arfa now hitting top gear their goalscoring could increase. At odds of 11/10 going for over 2.5 goals in this game is a good punt, Swansea have conceded 8 in their last 5 home games & it may be difficult to keep Newcastle's firing strikers out plus Sigurdsson has offered them more of a threat going forwards too.

Selections:
Aldershot Town to beat Port Vale at Evens (various)
Swansea City v Newcastle United Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 various)

A £5 double on these two could see you net a return of £21 with odds just over 3/1