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Thursday, 5 April 2012

Shots & Goals - a Winning Combination

We get off to an early start this football weekend with games this Easter Friday & we've looked at a League Two game plus the Premiership clash between Swansea & Newcastle to get some good bets in & money in our pockets in anticipation of another bookie bashing weekend. Now the question for the weekend is are we brave enough to make a case for either woeful side in the game between Liverpool & Villa this Saturday...........?

(Gaffer Dean Holdsworth is hoping to sneak Aldershot into a playoff place)

In League Two Aldershot Town host Port Vale at the Recreation Ground. Aldershot need a strong finish to give them a chance of a playoff spot as they are eight points behind with a game in hand on 7th place whilst Port Vale in 17th position. The Shots have won three of their last four league games & also gained a good away point at Shrewsbury Town last weekend, it's their home form which is most impressive of late after winning their last six in a row & unbeaten in their last seven - in these seven matches they have only conceded one goal in a 4-1 victory over Barnet. Visitors Port Vale have financial problems off the pitch & have struggled in recent weeks where they have suffered four defeats in their last five league matches, away from home they are winless in their last three matches & have been beaten in their last two by Torquay United & Crawley Town. We expect Aldershot Town to be too strong for Port Vale & push towards the playoff places at the general price of evens.

(Gylfi Sigurdsson has been a happy, goalscoring chap since joining Swansea on loan)

In Friday's Premier League game we see the two sides who've probably outperformed expectations more than any others this season when 10th placed Swansea City host 6th placed Newcastle United at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea have outperformed sides with better individual players on many occasions already this year with their excellent technical game where they starve opponents of the ball by keeping possession for long periods, Newcastle should however be prepared for that as they showed on Sunday when coming out victorious even though Liverpool had much of the play in the opening 20 minutes. One of the key parts of Newcastle's success has been their great chance conversion, although only 11th in shots per game (12.06) they are the league's 6th top scorers with 1.48 per game & that isn't surprising with the red hot Cisse now in the side to partner the excellent Demba Ba. Swansea don't have strikers of the calibre of Ba & Cisse but Danny Graham is now in double figures in the league & Gylfi Sigurdsson has 6 in 11 league starts since his loan move from Hoffenheim. Goals are key in this game for us as we like the odds against available on over 2.5 goals, it may seem a stretch as Swansea have been excellent defensively for the most part at home with just 12 conceded but with a total of 31 goals in 15 games at the Liberty Stadium that is just averaging over 2 a game & Newcastle's games have been averaging 2.83 goals & with Ben Arfa now hitting top gear their goalscoring could increase. At odds of 11/10 going for over 2.5 goals in this game is a good punt, Swansea have conceded 8 in their last 5 home games & it may be difficult to keep Newcastle's firing strikers out plus Sigurdsson has offered them more of a threat going forwards too.

Aldershot Town to beat Port Vale at Evens (various)
Swansea City v Newcastle United Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 various)

A £5 double on these two could see you net a return of £21 with odds just over 3/1

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