Monday Night Football - Magpies gonna sing the Sky Blues

A nice start to the Premier League season this weekend with plenty of new signings making their mark including our tip for top scorer honours Roberto Soldado, Simon Mignolet in goal for Liverpool & Ricky van Wolfswinkel for Norwich. It wasn't too bad for us on a betting front either with Rickie Lambert sealing a perfect 2 out of 2 with his last minute penalty to bring up the Southampton draw no bet winner to add to West Ham's impressive home victory. We're keen on both sides to have good seasons, Southampton have landed the striker they very much needed to help loosen Lambert's load with the capture of Roma's Pablo Osvaldo & West Ham can challenge for a top 7 spot if continuing their excellent home form from last year.

Here though we're going to take our first look at Monday Night Football for this season with the dysfunctional Newcastle United travelling to take on Manuel Pellegrini's new look Manchester City side in a game that is important for City to win if they're to lay down a marker of their intent.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

(New Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini - he's from Santiago...)

Manchester City certainly signalled their intent at the end of last season with the removal of Roberto Mancini, his backroom staff & the superbly talented but troublesome Carlos Tevez (with Balotelli also departing 5 months before). They've signed players who're at the age & performance levels that they should be able to contribute straight away & all seem to fit areas of the team where upgrades could've argued to have been needed - it's a strategy that other clubs seem to have failed at (United & Arsenal failing to sign anybody & Chelsea seeming to sign players in just one position - they now have 732 creative midfielders...). Spending just £14.9m on Jesus Navas looks an inspired bit of business in today's extortionate market as the winger has bags of pace & offers genuine width that City lacked previously. Navas will be able to link up with Negredo straight away (they both came from Sevilla) & he'll find the underrated Edin Dzeko a superb target to cross to also. Pellegrini has been tasked with getting his side to play more attractive football than they sometimes did under Mancini & also to get some success in Europe compared to their humiliations over the past two years & he'll view a home match against Newcastle as a good opportunity to begin.

 (Cheick Tiote could be given the runaround by Yaya Toure & co.)

City should have a more attacking philosophy than last year & although they may concede a few more (they were the meanest in the league in 2012-13 with 34 conceded) they won't mind that if they can turn a few draws into wins. We'd say it was more the strategy than the personnel which contributed to City's good defensive record as we're not keen on Hart in goal & although Kompany & Zabaleta are stars we're not so sure about Clichy at left back or whoever they pair Kompany with. Gareth Barry looks to have lost his place with loan deals mooted & that should mean a pacey, scary lineup in this game with the freakishly powerful Yaya Toure & the delightfully talented Fernandinho likely to prove too much for Newcastle to handle in the centre of the pitch. Cheick Tiote's form dipped considerably last year & James Perch lacks the necessary quality, whilst the promising youngster Gael Bigirimana would find this a big ask - they could struggle to both win possession & keep it here & that will strangle the supply to their key attacking players of Gutierrez, Ben Arfa & Cabaye.


Newcastle's off-field issues have been commented on plenty & the problem we see from the off is that they underperformed last season yet haven't been able to do much business in the transfer market to attempt to rectify that with just the minor signing of Oliver Kemen ( a French midfielder surprise, surprise) & the loan signing of Loic Remy coming in so far. They struggled on the road last year with just two league wins (against QPR & Aston Villa) & the lack of firepower without Demba Ba particularly hurt them meaning draws tended to be the aim. That does mean they're used to trying to frustrate opposing sides & they've two very good defenders in Collocini & Santon plus a decent keeper in Tim Krul. The problem is as noted above that they probably won't have too much protection in front of the back four & their other defenders lack a bit of real quality with, for our money, Steven Taylor being a particularly poor player to have played so many Premier League seasons. To be fair Mathieu Debuchy only joined last January & he may well be bedded in now & he's certainly a step up on Danny Simpson at right back.

(City's Stevan Jovetic (right) could be value at 7/4 to score anytime)

This could be a long night for Newcastle & we've a feeling that City will come bursting out of the blocks in this one & could take a grip of the game early on, with that in mind the 9/10 that BetVictor (fast becoming our favourite bookies for football betting) offer for a Man City half time/full time result is the suggested punt. City managed that in 9 of their 19 home games last season & although that suggests odds on isn't a fair price Newcastle are a weaker side than many & poor travellers. The other selection is contingent on him being in the starting lineup & that is Stevan Jovetic anytime goalscorer at 7/4 - the skillful Monetengrin knocked in 27 goals in 58 league games for Fiorentina over the past two years & that's pretty close to the magic 1 in 2 so the odds are very fair.

Selections:
Manchester City half time/full time at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Stevan Jovetic to score at anytime at 7/4 (General) if he starts 

Goals to fly in for Swans & Magpies

Last Sunday was a good one for punters as Swansea won the League Cup in easy fashion & showed the odds available (as big as 4/9 against a side 3 leagues below) were just plain wrong - it's rare that happens though & it's normally harder work to find value, we're back on the trail this weekend & have a couple of selections for you.

Remember Cheltenham Festival is just a week or so around the corner & we'll be bringing you a blog & bets on each of the days as we get into the swing of things for jump racing's biggest week of the year! We'll be asking for your very best bets of the festival over the next week for a special followers' blog so if you aren't already make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney to join in - either find us there or click the Follow button above. Start sending us your best bets along with reason & the hashtag #LikeBuyingMoney & we'll include.

Swansea City vs Newcastle United

Swansea go back to the Liberty Stadium as conquering heroes after winning the League Cup at Wembley this past Sunday but they face a far higher calibre of opposition in a resurgent Newcastle United side whose form has seen a dramatic upswing after their transfer dealings in the January transfer window.

(Right back Mathieu Debuchy looks a quality signing for the Magpies)

Moussa Sissoko has been the signing who's made the most eye-catching start to his St James Park career with 3 league goals already & he's also helping to bring the best out of striker Papiss Cisse who can blow hot & cold. Although Sissoko has been the star new signing so far Gouffran has also added another dimension up front & Mathieu Debuchy is real football playing right back & he's been important in bringing about 3 wins in their last 4, only losing to in form Spurs in that sequence. The games have all been high scoring too with 3, 5, 3 & 6 goals as Alan Pardew seems to have recognised his players are far more comfortable in attack than defence, they have a nice mix of physically gifted players & technical maestros to think they could make a decent side & they'll have enough to worry Swansea.

(Swansea will want to use their League Cup win as a platform to build on)

Swansea's success in the League Cup was great for them, pre-game we suggested the final was a formality & it worked out like that, but it is testament to Michael Laudrup & the club that they took the competition seriously & were deserved victors. They need to carry that feel-good factor through for the rest of the season as the higher up the table they finish the more prize money they'll receive & the more attractive a proposition they'll be to potential signings (& their coveted crop of current players!). They'll surely play a stronger team than when up against Liverpool two weeks back & they've got the players in their first eleven to compete against anyone (the squad as a whole needs strengthening though), Michu will be looking for his 16th league goal of the season & Nathan Dyer will surely still be pumped up from his brace in the final. If Swansea do concede & fall behind there's no way their fans will allow them to be passive & accept defeat so we can see a high tempo game on the cards.

The home fans will be in full voice for the Welsh side & that could mean that they play with a little more adrenaline than usual which could just maybe set this up to be a stormer, there have been 24 goals in their last 7 home league games & Newcastle have also looked incisive in recent games so 4/5 about over 2.5 goals looks a decent punt.

Morecambe vs Rochdale

Down in League Two, Morecambe entertain Rochdale at the Globe Arena. Morecambe are in 10th place currently still have a faint outside chance of a play-off place whilst are down in 15th position.

 (Morecambe's Jack Redshaw will be looking to keep up his better than 1 goal in 2 scoring ratio)

Morecambe suffered a 3-2 defeat to in-form Burton Albion on Tuesday night but after conceding soft goals they fought back strongly after the introduction of Ryan Williams, Lewis Alessandra & Jack Redshaw to score two goals in the last ten minutes & we would expect the impressive trio to start this weekend. Sadly it put an end of a run of seven points in their last three games including an impressive 1-0 away victory at promotion chasing Port Vale. They have only suffered four defeats at home all season, in 17 matches, & they have a decent record against sides who are lower than them in the league (W6, D5 & L1).

Visitors Rochdale suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home against Accrington Stanley & it's been typical of their recent form since the turn of the year where have only won once & suffered five defeats. On the road they have struggled all season & they have failed to pick up any points in five of their last eight away games. They are leaky on the road & have conceded on average two goals per game which means results are always going to be hard to come by.

We expect Morecambe to be too strong for a leaky Rochdale side & grab the three points which will keep their small glimmer of hope in the play-off chase at the best odds of 13/10.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Swansea City vs Newcastle United at 4/5 (SkyBet, Bet365 & Stan James)
Morecambe to beat Rochdale at 13/10 (SkyBet & BetVictor)

Toon Army versus Canaries? It hardly seems fair!

We're back to weekend football action after a rather packed midweek with lower league matches & plenty of top flight sides in European action, we've picked out a couple of bets as we look for quality to prevail over a couple of sides that could be in for long & unhappy seasons. You can keep up to date with all of our latest blog posts by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by checking us out on there or by clicking the Follow button above.

Newcastle United vs Norwich City

(Demba Ba's scored goals & goals & goals when played through the middle - maybe he has a point?)

Backing sides after they've competed in Europe in midweek is usually a sure way to the poor house but at only just a shade of odds on Newcastle United look value to beat Norwich who've been pretty disappointing so far this season. Chris Hughton returns to Newcastle without a win under his belt in the league with his East Anglian side, they took a beating on the opening day from Fulham & have since played out three rather dour draws against Spurs, QPR & West Ham. The big positive here is that Alan Pardew showed what his priorities are by fielding a second string side in Portugal in the Europa League meaning he clearly sees this as a game he's desperate to win.

We felt that Norwich really over performed last year as they don't have an awful lot of quality throughout the side & tend to only have one tactic which is getting it out wide & whipping in crosses to star striker Grant Holt. They didn't lose any players in the summer but that was because no other club wanted them & the transfer activity they undertook themselves didn't impress us with Robert Snodgrass from Leeds maybe their biggest piece of business.

Newcastle burst into a bit of life against Everton on Monday playing some good football in periods, they were certainly fortunate to get a point thanks to some pretty awful work by the linesman on two occasions, but overall they showed more than enough to be strong favourites to win at home here. Newcastle can gain their first win since the opening day at odds of 4/5 - they are as short as 8/15 elsewhere so punters should get their bets on early before this ace value disappears. Striker Demba Ba & his agent have been making plenty of noise in the media but Newcastle can cope with that on the pitch & don't let that put you off a golden wager.

Bury vs MK Dons

(Ryan Lowe returns to his old Gigg Lane haunting ground)

League One sees bottom of the table Bury entertain MK Dons at the Gigg Lane Stadium, the home side have made an awful start with four defeats & no victories in their seven league matches. Last season the Dons gained 80 points to Bury's 56, so averaging over 1/2 a point more per game & the gap in quality between the two sides looks to be even bigger this year as Bury just haven't been able to get a thing going so far. It looked like a battling draw away to big boys Sheffield United might be able to kickstart Bury's season but they then went & got thumped 3-0 by Tranmere on the same weekend that MK Dons put in a convincing display, controlling possession when beating highflyers Yeovil 1-0.

The only worry with MK Dons in this one is that they haven't really hit the goalscoring trail yet with 7 in their 7 league games & only the youngster Daniel Powell having hit the back of the net twice - he only scored 6 league goals in 41 appearances last year so they can't be relying on him too heavily. Luckily they are up against a porous Bury defence that have already conceded 12 this season & let 79 goals in last year & they've only scored 5 themselves this time around. Bury just don't have a proven goalscorer & they look in serious danger of relegation this year, they could come face to face with ex-favourite Ryan Lowe as he's now with the Dons. At odds of Evens MK Dons should be backed to heap more misery upon the Shakers.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Norwich City at 4/5 (Bet365 & Bodog)
MK Dons to beat Bury at Evens (General)

Monday Night Football - Everton & Falcons can pick apart weary travellers

More Monday Night football action as we see a game between two of the Premier League's teams just off the top set when Everton host Newcastle United & an interesting game in the NFL as the defensively strong Denver Broncos try to slow down the passing hotshot that is Matt Ryan for the Atlanta Falcons. Both games are important even this early in the season as all four teams are looking to lay down a marker as they either push for Europe or a playoff place. We've previewed both games & come up with a pair of bets in each as we look to turn a tidy profit at the start of the week.

Everton vs Newcastle United

Everton started their season off at breakneck pace with wins against Manchester United & away to Aston Villa with Marouane Fellaini excelling in particular, they got brought down to earth with a bump when losing to West Brom though & face a tough game against Newcastle United as they look to bounce back. Newcastle will also be looking to improve after they rather huffed & puffed in a 1-1 draw with Villa at home & they have to make do without their good young keeper Tim Krul who picked up an injury on international duty & that is a setback as they haven't kept a clean sheet in the league yet.

(Technical supremo Steven Pienaar could be the key for Everton)

This could be a game where we see classic home & away roles with Newcastle coming with the intention of firstly stopping Everton, being reactive & forcing the Toffees to come forward with the ball, Newcastle know that they hold a threat whenever they come forwards thanks to their Senegalese strikeforce of Ba & Cisse. Everton tend to look a bit better when teams come at them as they have such a solid defence that they feel comfortable when attacked but in Steven Pienaar they have a player who can unlock the toughest defences when on form. With the signings of Kevin Mirallas & Steven Naismith they've added some additional quality & much needed extra options in attack & with the set piece danger from corners & Leighton Baines' free kicks they should be able to knock one past Steve Harper.

Newcastle will again be without their key midfield enforcer in Cheick Tiote & he's a big miss in games like this, if Pienaar gets time on the ball he should be able to create enough chances, even if Newcastle do defend deep, & Everton now have players who can put those chances away. Newcastle have already played 5 times thanks to their European commitments & they've got a Europa League game against Maritimo on Thursday night, although this game will take priority Everton have the advantage & we like the 5/6 available for the home win. We do think Newcastle will make this tough though & a small wager on a correct score bet of 1-0 to Everton could be worth chancing at 13/2.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

(Julio Jones is starting to emerge as a truly elite receiver for the Falcons)

The Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos go on the road to the Atlanta Falcons after a nice start when beating Pittsburgh at home in week one, this is a much different test though as the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league when in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have lost at home in the regular season just 6 times in the last 4 years (32 games) & quarterback Matt Ryan looks altogether more comfortable when playing inside - of course playing inside won't be a problem for Manning either having spent his career at Indianapolis.

Both teams looked good last week with Atlanta travelling to take on the Kansas City Chiefs & putting 40 points on the board with Ryan looking hugely efficient completing 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards & 3 touchdowns. Julio Jones was Ryan's main target & he looks like he could be about to move to another level of play at receiver & could be having a monstrous season in terms of receiving yards & touchdowns. The Broncos did well against the Steelers but did have the benefit of going up against their poor O-line & the Falcons are much better at protecting the passer, Pittsburgh also looked to struggle without Rashard Mendenhall at running back & the Fakcons have a dependable sort in Michael Turner. The big positive for Denver was clearly how well Manning has settle into the side & he already looks to have established a good understanding with his receivers with Demaryius homas, Eric Decker & Jacon Tamme all getting 5 receptions each - the Falcons' are a little weak in their secondary & this could be a shootout so we expect Peyton to put up yards through the air again.

(Peyton Manning links back up with tight end Jacob Tamme (no.84))

Although we do think this will be high scoring the total points line is high enough at 52 & instead the value looks to be had by siding with the Falcons as they only have to give up 3 points on the handicap - they are a tough proposition at home & can score touchdowns at will once they get into a rhythm. There is value to be had with a Denver touchdown scorer though as tight end Jacob Tamme is available at 6/4 to score a TD at anytime, he got one last week & Peyton Manning loves to aim for tight ends when in & around the red zone & links up with Tamme after previously being together at the Colts, even though we think Atlanta will win they are likely to concede a few points on the way.

Selections:
Everton to beat Newcastle United at 5/6 (Various)
Everton to beat Newcastle United 1-0 at 13/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Atlanta Falcons to beat Denver Broncos with -3.5 point handicap at 20/21 (William Hill)
Jacob Tamme to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/4 (Various)

Poor Pompey deserve Pity & Punting against

It's finally upon us, the first weekend of the English football season is here after a less tortuous summer break than usual thanks to great sport in the form of the Olympics & European Championships. We'll be bringing you our betting picks throughout the season as we try to seek out value in the multitude of markets the bookies now offer. We're hoping to get the year off to a nice start through backing against a couple of sides with various troubles who just so happen to be Harry 'Wheeler Dealer' Redknapp's last two teams.

Newcastle vs Spurs

The late kick-off in the Premiership this Saturday sees Newcastle host Tottenham at St James Park. Both sides will be in the battle to make the top four this season but you could say Newcastle have the edge at the moment.

(Is chairman Daniel Levy helping or hindering Spurs in their latest transfer saga?)

Spurs have had a summer of change with Harry Redknapp being replaced with Andres Villas-Boas & long term captain Ledley King retiring due to his chronic knee problem. What hasn't changed is the fact that chairman Daniel Levy has yet again let a summer transfer saga overrun without suitable conclusion & seems to think the season starts on the 1st September not mid-August. To come into the opening match with only one senior striker must seem laughable to their rivals & embarrassing to those fans in the stands as Levy has known this since the beginning of the summer (Adebayor's loan finishing & Saha being released). There is a real possibility of Spurs season starting badly with the famous 'two points from eight games' springing to mind with the only differences being a different foreign manager & transfer saga (Berbatov instead of Modric). Jermain Defoe scored a cracker for England in midweek but he doesn't inspire confidence in these quarters, pundits seem to love him yet they conveniently fail to note he's only broken past 13 league goals twice since his season on loan with Bournemouth in 2000-01 & is generally considered to be a 'flat track bully' (scores in bunches against weak sides).

(Newcastle have kept the players to mount a serious 'top four' challenge again)

Newcastle on the other hand have had a fairly quiet summer but have importantly kept hold of all their stars & will be looking to improve on their 5th place finish last season. A solid defence based around keeper Tim Krul & Fabricio Coloccini & defensive shield of Cheick Tiote allows Frenchmen Yohan Cabaye & Hatem Ben Afra to provide the balls to hot shots Papiss Cisse & Demba Ba. A few of these are slightly doubtful for the opener but we would expect them to have enough fit & raring go at kick off. If you add into the mix that Newcastle have only lost once at home in 2012 & Spurs away record to top six sides is notoriously bad the 17/10 on offer for a Toon Army win seems a value bet.

Portsmouth vs Bournemouth

(Portsmouth manager Michael Appleton is facing a uphill battle)

Sorry Portsmouth welcome Bournemouth to Fratton Park in their opening League One fixture. Without being a Pompey fan it will be hard to understand what they are going through after news that they are on the brink of liquidation again with prospective owner Balram Chainrai announcing he has withdrawn his offer to buy the club. The summer has seen all senior players leave via routes to other clubs or contract settlement being agreed & yet again they will have to field basically a youth team to fulfil this fixture. Tuesday night they were defeated 3-0 by Plymouth in the Capital One cup & after first team coach Ashley Westwood went off injured it left their entire outfield side aged 18 or under. In contrast Bournemouth have overcome their money issues in recent years & should be chomping at the bit to get underway with promotion a real possibility. The Cherries have made a number of astute signings & up-front they have three strikers in Lewis Grabban, Matt Tubbs & Josh McQuoid who will be a real handful for any defence, Tubbs & Grabban are both nearing favouritism for top scorer in the division.

Portsmouth have managed to sign 10 players, each on one month deals, this Thursday but it remains to be seen whether they have match fitness & there's no chance for them to gel before Saturday. We expect Bournemouth to take advantage of Pompey's current plight & grab the three points at best odds of 10/11, the side that Portsmouth have right now will be lucky to pick up a handful of wins all season & financial saviour won't stop them slipping into the basement league of English football.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 17/10 (William Hill)
Bournemouth to beat Portmouth at 10/11 (various)

Watch out Europe there's a Toon Army trying to get you!

Another thrilling Premier League season is coming to an end this Sunday & there's plenty to play for with the title still to be decided, any of three teams can finish 3rd, 4th & 5th plus Bolton & QPR try to avoid joining Wolves & Blackburn in being relegated. There's still plenty of football to look forward to this summer with the European Championships & we'll be finding the best bets in that competition too, for the time being though check out our final picks for this season below.

(Victor Moses has been in fine form along with his Wigan teammates in recent weeks)

In the Premiership, Wigan Athletic will look to end the season on a high against already relegated Wolverhampton Wanderers at the DW Stadium. Wigan looked doomed at the turn of 2012 but under the impressive leadership of Roberto Martinez they have gone on a fantastic run to guarantee Premiership survival for another year. They have won six of their last eight league games with victories over Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal & in their last home game dished out a 4-0 hammering of Newcastle. It would have been easy for Martinez to abandon his passing principles when results weren't going for his side but by sticking with them it's allowed attacking trio Victor Moses, Franco Di Santo & Shaun Maloney to reap the benefits & put the points on the board. With goals flowing they have also improved defensively with skipper Gary Caldwell & the underrated keeper Ali Al-Habsi putting in a number of strong performances. Visitors Wolves will be glad for the final whistle to finish a thoroughly miserable season as they embark on a summer of rebuilding under the new guidance of Stale Solbakken - current interim manager Terry O'Connor has a record of no wins & eight defeats in his twelve games & will revert back to his old role after his ill fated spell. Away from home Wolves haven't won in their last six & have conceded on average two goals per game, Wigan will look to put on a show for their fans in their final home fixture & bag the three points at the best price of 8/13 with William Hill.

(Newcastle need to win & get Champions League football to hold on to stars such as these)

At Goodison Everton host their final home game against Champions League chasing Newcastle United & it looks like any value to be had in this one lies with the Magpies. Everton have had their customary good finish to the season with the squad bolstered by the signings of Jelavic & Gibson plus Pienaar & you have to go back to the 21st March for their last league loss but they have only one of their last 5 in all competitions. That recent run includes the disappointing defeat to city rivals Liverpool in the FA Cup semi final & draws with Stoke & last week Wolves, it also includes the remarkable 4-4 at Old Trafford & demolishing Fulham here at Goodison. Newcastle went on a splendid run of 6 straight victories after a dodgy spell in February & the beginning of March, the freakishly good Papiss Cisse scored in all of those wins before the run came to an abrupt halt when taking a spanking from resurgent Wigan. It seemed that some Newcastle players had taken their foot off the gas in the Wigan game but they bounced straight back to beat Chelsea & simultaneously end the London club's chances of Champions League qualification in the league (& probably at all!). Losing to Man City last week was no disgrace & up until conceding late on they looked pretty solid with players committed to the cause throughout the team & they'll all be focused for this one. Cisse seems to be able to score every type of goal & will cause the Everton defence problems at all times & Ben Arfa has hit some fine form too, with his runs & Yohan Cabaye's pinpoint passing they should create chances. At the other end the defence seems good whoever plays & it helps that they are backed up by goalkeeping star Tim Krul, he's not missed a beat this season & will be desperate to showcase his skills in Europe's top comp. Everton have shown qualities going forward & in defence in recent weeks but have also had some more disappointing efforts allowing to argue for & against their chances but Newcastle present a stronger case in this one & at 12/5 must be backed.

Selections:
Wigan Athletic to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at 8/13 (William Hill)
Newcastle United to beat Everton at 12/5 (BetVictor)

Shots & Goals - a Winning Combination

We get off to an early start this football weekend with games this Easter Friday & we've looked at a League Two game plus the Premiership clash between Swansea & Newcastle to get some good bets in & money in our pockets in anticipation of another bookie bashing weekend. Now the question for the weekend is are we brave enough to make a case for either woeful side in the game between Liverpool & Villa this Saturday...........?

 

(Gaffer Dean Holdsworth is hoping to sneak Aldershot into a playoff place)

In League Two Aldershot Town host Port Vale at the Recreation Ground. Aldershot need a strong finish to give them a chance of a playoff spot as they are eight points behind with a game in hand on 7th place whilst Port Vale in 17th position. The Shots have won three of their last four league games & also gained a good away point at Shrewsbury Town last weekend, it's their home form which is most impressive of late after winning their last six in a row & unbeaten in their last seven - in these seven matches they have only conceded one goal in a 4-1 victory over Barnet. Visitors Port Vale have financial problems off the pitch & have struggled in recent weeks where they have suffered four defeats in their last five league matches, away from home they are winless in their last three matches & have been beaten in their last two by Torquay United & Crawley Town. We expect Aldershot Town to be too strong for Port Vale & push towards the playoff places at the general price of evens.

(Gylfi Sigurdsson has been a happy, goalscoring chap since joining Swansea on loan)

In Friday's Premier League game we see the two sides who've probably outperformed expectations more than any others this season when 10th placed Swansea City host 6th placed Newcastle United at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea have outperformed sides with better individual players on many occasions already this year with their excellent technical game where they starve opponents of the ball by keeping possession for long periods, Newcastle should however be prepared for that as they showed on Sunday when coming out victorious even though Liverpool had much of the play in the opening 20 minutes. One of the key parts of Newcastle's success has been their great chance conversion, although only 11th in shots per game (12.06) they are the league's 6th top scorers with 1.48 per game & that isn't surprising with the red hot Cisse now in the side to partner the excellent Demba Ba. Swansea don't have strikers of the calibre of Ba & Cisse but Danny Graham is now in double figures in the league & Gylfi Sigurdsson has 6 in 11 league starts since his loan move from Hoffenheim. Goals are key in this game for us as we like the odds against available on over 2.5 goals, it may seem a stretch as Swansea have been excellent defensively for the most part at home with just 12 conceded but with a total of 31 goals in 15 games at the Liberty Stadium that is just averaging over 2 a game & Newcastle's games have been averaging 2.83 goals & with Ben Arfa now hitting top gear their goalscoring could increase. At odds of 11/10 going for over 2.5 goals in this game is a good punt, Swansea have conceded 8 in their last 5 home games & it may be difficult to keep Newcastle's firing strikers out plus Sigurdsson has offered them more of a threat going forwards too.

Selections:
Aldershot Town to beat Port Vale at Evens (various)
Swansea City v Newcastle United Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 various)

A £5 double on these two could see you net a return of £21 with odds just over 3/1