Southampton's Defence still looks more Sinful than Saintly

We're back on the football betting & looking for another weekend like last one - as usual we've scoured the leagues & come up with bets after looking at form, team news & matchups of styles to try to find some value bets. With at least 5 rounds of games played in the leagues now plus some cup action too it's now possible to have a real feel for which teams have progressed & regressed over the summer & new managers' philosophies are starting to be accepted, it should mean a few less shock results but of course nothing's guaranteed! A top tip in general is to try to disregard teams' reputations that may well have been garnered some time ago & pay attention to their quality right now, Liverpool for example continue to be underpriced in virtually every game even though they struggle to score & at times look disjointed. You don't necessarily have to back against these types of team but they should certainly be left out of multiple bets until their prices lengthen & become more realistic.

Everton vs Southampton

(Leighton Baines is on top form just like many of his Everton colleagues)

We've had a lot of love for Everton this year tipping them up as our Premier League handicap bet & reckoning they could get a quicker start than their usual poor early season form, they've duly obliged so far & they could give Southampton the runaround at Goodison Park this Saturday. Nigel Adkins' side have been shambolic defensively even allowing for the fact they've played some good sides so far with 15 goals conceded for an average of 3 per game & it won't get easier against an Everton side that can mix it up with physicality & class in attack.

Southampton fans may be feeling a little more positive after winning twice in the last week, putting their first points on the board after coming from behind to beat Aston Villa 4-1 & then taking care of Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup even whilst resting players - we think it will take a lot more in this one though as Everton are a big step up. Crucially here Southampton's style of play that helped them unsettle Manchesters City & United just shouldn't cause Everton the same problems as they have good central defenders who can cope with Rickie Lambert physically & decent fullbacks who are well protected too to stop Southampton's crosses ever getting in the box.

Everton didn't rest quite so many as Southampton in the week when getting knocked out by Leeds but that loss shouldn't be much of a blow as they look to get as high a league position as possible, Marouane Fellaini continues to be just about the hottest player around & they've even got Anichebe scoring goals! Nikica Jelavic is coming back to fitness & could start here, adding another string to their bow & Leighton Baines & Steven Pienaar will provide him & Fellaini with excellent service as usual. Everton should score & we can see them doing so more than once, their defence should cope better than Villa's youngsters did last Saturday & we fancy them with a -1 goal handicap at odds of 5/4. For a goalscorer bet you could do worse than taking the 5/1 for Leighton Baines to score anytime, he bagged one against Swansea & is Everton's penalty taker plus many free kicks, Southampton gave penalties away against United & City & although those were saved, Baines would almost certainly not be so timid as the takers in those games.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sheffield Wednesday

(Gingle-Gangle: Tongo Doumbia is a class act at Wolves)

In the Championship we see another form side with Wolves who've won their last three in the league & won't be too concerned with the beating they took at the hands of Chelsea in midweek - they started with 10 different players to their win against Peterborough on Saturday. After a reasonable start to the season it's been all downhill for Sheffield Wednesday as they haven't been able to get it going at home or on the road, a porous defence doesn't help with them having conceded two or more goals in 9 of their 10 competitive games this season. Being poor defensively is not a good idea when playing Wolves as they have one of their Championship's best strikers in Sylva Ebanks-Blake who is perfect at this level with his strength, balance & shot power being key attributes.

Wolves deserved to finish bottom of the top flight last year as they hadn't assembled a Premier League style set of players, it did however mean they were well suited to take on the different challenge of football in this division. The Midlands club have also done a mean piece of business by picking up Mali's Tongo Doumbia on loan with a view to a permanent signing - Arsenal were said to be looking at the midfielder last year & he's looked a class apart at times this season. We think Wolves should win this one with home advantage & odds of 10/11 are fair but an even more certain bet for our money is over 2.5 goals at 8/11, Wolves have kept clean sheets in their last two league games but against poor sides (Ipswich & Peterborough) & Wednesday do hold an attacking threat, Wanderers even seemed a bit shaky when 2-0 up on Leicester & this could be a goal fest.

Tranmere Rovers vs Brentford

Talking of form sides, there aren't many in better nick than Tranmere Rovers at the moment - they've won 6 from 8 league games, have a perfect home record & have scored the most (21) & conceded the least (4) goals in League One, they have a test today in Brentford but there's good reason to think they'll overcome it.

(Tranmere's Andy Robinson has found his shooting boots with 7 goals already this season)

Brentford have made a decent start themselves & have bagged 12 points from their opening 8 games, they have however not won away from home, grabbing 3 draws from 4 road games & we were less than impressed when watching them huff & puff away to Leyton Orient three games back. Brentford will have to go some to stop Tranmere's Jake Cassidy, the tall 19 year old has returned on loan from Wolves again this year after making a big impact at the end of last season & has bagged 7 times already with those coming in their last 5 games. It should also be noted that Brentford have only played one team that currently sit in the top half of the table (a 2-2 draw with Walsall) so this is a big step up in terms of quality of opposition for them & we reckon they'll come up short against Tranmere & their +17 goal difference - take the huge odds against bet of 11/10 on Tranmere.

Selections:
Everton to beat Southampton with a -1 goal handicap at 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Leighton Baines to score anytime at 5/1 (William Hill)
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sheffield Wednesday over 2.5 goals at 8/11 (Various)
Tranmere Rovers to beat Brentford at 11/10 (General)

Watch out Europe there's a Toon Army trying to get you!

Another thrilling Premier League season is coming to an end this Sunday & there's plenty to play for with the title still to be decided, any of three teams can finish 3rd, 4th & 5th plus Bolton & QPR try to avoid joining Wolves & Blackburn in being relegated. There's still plenty of football to look forward to this summer with the European Championships & we'll be finding the best bets in that competition too, for the time being though check out our final picks for this season below.

(Victor Moses has been in fine form along with his Wigan teammates in recent weeks)

In the Premiership, Wigan Athletic will look to end the season on a high against already relegated Wolverhampton Wanderers at the DW Stadium. Wigan looked doomed at the turn of 2012 but under the impressive leadership of Roberto Martinez they have gone on a fantastic run to guarantee Premiership survival for another year. They have won six of their last eight league games with victories over Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal & in their last home game dished out a 4-0 hammering of Newcastle. It would have been easy for Martinez to abandon his passing principles when results weren't going for his side but by sticking with them it's allowed attacking trio Victor Moses, Franco Di Santo & Shaun Maloney to reap the benefits & put the points on the board. With goals flowing they have also improved defensively with skipper Gary Caldwell & the underrated keeper Ali Al-Habsi putting in a number of strong performances. Visitors Wolves will be glad for the final whistle to finish a thoroughly miserable season as they embark on a summer of rebuilding under the new guidance of Stale Solbakken - current interim manager Terry O'Connor has a record of no wins & eight defeats in his twelve games & will revert back to his old role after his ill fated spell. Away from home Wolves haven't won in their last six & have conceded on average two goals per game, Wigan will look to put on a show for their fans in their final home fixture & bag the three points at the best price of 8/13 with William Hill.

(Newcastle need to win & get Champions League football to hold on to stars such as these)

At Goodison Everton host their final home game against Champions League chasing Newcastle United & it looks like any value to be had in this one lies with the Magpies. Everton have had their customary good finish to the season with the squad bolstered by the signings of Jelavic & Gibson plus Pienaar & you have to go back to the 21st March for their last league loss but they have only one of their last 5 in all competitions. That recent run includes the disappointing defeat to city rivals Liverpool in the FA Cup semi final & draws with Stoke & last week Wolves, it also includes the remarkable 4-4 at Old Trafford & demolishing Fulham here at Goodison. Newcastle went on a splendid run of 6 straight victories after a dodgy spell in February & the beginning of March, the freakishly good Papiss Cisse scored in all of those wins before the run came to an abrupt halt when taking a spanking from resurgent Wigan. It seemed that some Newcastle players had taken their foot off the gas in the Wigan game but they bounced straight back to beat Chelsea & simultaneously end the London club's chances of Champions League qualification in the league (& probably at all!). Losing to Man City last week was no disgrace & up until conceding late on they looked pretty solid with players committed to the cause throughout the team & they'll all be focused for this one. Cisse seems to be able to score every type of goal & will cause the Everton defence problems at all times & Ben Arfa has hit some fine form too, with his runs & Yohan Cabaye's pinpoint passing they should create chances. At the other end the defence seems good whoever plays & it helps that they are backed up by goalkeeping star Tim Krul, he's not missed a beat this season & will be desperate to showcase his skills in Europe's top comp. Everton have shown qualities going forward & in defence in recent weeks but have also had some more disappointing efforts allowing to argue for & against their chances but Newcastle present a stronger case in this one & at 12/5 must be backed.

Selections:
Wigan Athletic to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at 8/13 (William Hill)
Newcastle United to beat Everton at 12/5 (BetVictor)

Oh when the Saints Go Marching In with our Money

Good Friday was anything but for us with Aldershot's kit man seeming to have forgotten to pack the side's shooting boots & even with a very early goal, the Swansea v Newcastle game couldn't muster the three needed for a payout. We're keeping things easy today with some rock solid home picks in the early & late game plus one more Championship game. Some people will tell you there can never be value in backing odds on but they'd be wrong - imagine us offering odds of 1/4 for Barcelona to beat Burton in a competitive game - you'd bite our hands off!

(Jon Walters is key in so much of Stoke's attacking play)

In the late Premier League game we have a price that is simply wrong as Stoke City are 4/6 to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at home, in their feared Brittania Stadium. Lets not make any bones about this, Wolves are the worst side in the league by a distance, they have a poor squad, an inexperienced manager & on top of that they have injuries & infighting, how a superior side such as Stoke can only be 4/6 to win is incomprehensible. Stoke have had a sticky patch themselves, losing 4 in a row over January & February & only taking a point at Anfield! They picked themselves up with wins over Swansea & Norwich here & although not winning in four since they've performed well with a 1-0 defeat at Chelsea, holding Spurs away then Man City here before succumbing to improving Wigan. Wolves have shown nothing to suggest a result is forthcoming with one win in 17 & losses in 9 of their last 12, they could stay up mathematically but surely any hope has gone. Goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey seems to let just about every shot straight through him & this could be a big win for the Potters, & it's tempting to take them on the handicap but with goals hard to come by for them lets just stick to a hefty wager on the home win at 4/6.

(Billy Sharp firing one in for Southampton)

We're going to keep things really simple & go for another team overpriced by Betfred & Totesport with Southampton to come out victorious in their South Coast derby with Portsmouth. We cannot see anything other than a Saints win here as they look to go top again after Reading surpassed them with a late show against 10 man Leeds thanks to playing yesterday. Southampton suffered a shock 3-0 loss last week to Blackpool but had looked impervious previously with 8 out of 10 wins & no loss in 12. Pompey recently managed good wins against Birmingham & Hull but have lost their last 4 away games & were smashed 5-1 at home by Burnley last weekend, they will come & battle but surely won't stand up to Southampton's firepower for long, Lambert & Lallana plus Billy Sharp will all be looking to pile the shots & goals in & 1/2 for a hugely better side at home is a great price & Southampton should be backed.

(Hat-trick man Radoslaw Majewski will look to steal the headlines again)

In the Championship, Nottingham Forest entertain Bristol City at the City Ground, both sides are involved in a relegation dogfight with Forest in 19th whilst Bristol City are in the final drop spot. Forest are unbeaten in their last four league games with two wins & two draws with the latest being a 3-0 away victory at Crystal Palace thanks to an impressive hat-trick from Radoslaw Majewski, in their last four home games they have picked up seven points having beaten Millwall & Coventry. Visitors Bristol City are really struggling & have only recorded one victory since the end of January at home to Leicester City, they have suffered eight defeats in their last 13 league matches & have failed to score in seven of them, away from home they are winless in their last seven, of which five have ended in defeats. We expect Nottingham Forest to continue their revival & put further distance between themselves & relegation rivals at a price of 5/6.

Selections:
Stoke City to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at 4/6 (Betfred & Totesport)
Southampton to beat Portsmouth at 1/2 (Betfred & Totesport)
Nottingham Forest to beat Bristol City at 5/6 (various)

A double on the top two will give odds of 6/4 which looks good value

Defending is like....... so last year!

We're back again seeking a bit of value in the weekend's games & think we've got three decent selections that should help you turn a profit before one of the biggest betting weeks of the year with the Cheltenham Festival starting on Tuesday. As ever if you aren't following us on Twitter already you can by clicking the follow button above or finding us @LikeBuyingMoney, it's a good way of keeping up to date with our latest posts & ask us any quetsions you want.

(Deadly duo Francois Zoko & Lee Miller will fancy their chances against a leaky Bury defence)

In League One, Carlisle United host Bury at Brunton Park. Carlisle are in 7th place & only one point outside of the play-off spots whilst Bury are down in 15th position. Carlisle have been in mixed form of late but this can be separated into excellent home form & difficulties on their travels, in front of their own fans they are unbeaten in their last 13 league games & have won eight of these. They have two decent strikers in Francois Zoko & Lee Miller who have scored 14 of their 21 combined goals at home & are a major threat to a Bury side who have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 16 games. Bury are struggling of late and have lost five & drawn four of their last nine league games & suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night, on the road they have lost their last three & five of the last six. We expect Carlisle on their own patch to easily outscore a struggling Bury at a general price of 5/6.

(Yakety Yak don't talk back - Yakubu can feast on a dreadful Wolves' defence)

We refuse to change a proven winning tactic & that means that we are going to again oppose Wolves, this time in a relegation six pointer with fellow strugglers Blackburn Rovers, who they host at Molineux. Both teams sit on 22 points & in a game like this there can sometimes be a risk that both teams get paralysed by the fear but with with both sides having defensive woes & at times reasonable attacks, particularly with Blackburn & their main man Yakubu, there should be an emphasis on attacking football here. Blackburn have been able to name the same back four in their last 3 games since taking a beating at the Emirates & although they aren't great that is a positive & they have won against QPR & drawn with Villa whilst facing a somewhat inevitable loss away to Man City. Wolves have much bigger problems, they left out skipper Roger Johnson at Fulham & took a 5-0 beating that could have been worse, Johnson then turned up to training on Monday morning too inebriated to be of use & has been fined. Wolves have continuing injury problems in midfield with Karl Henry the latest to be injured & Dave Edwards still unlikely to be fit & they may have to look to the 21 year old David Davis who has one club appearance to his name  was just recalled from Chesterfield. Morten Gammt Pedersen, Junior Hoilett & Yakubu have enough quality to worry most sides & we fancy Blackburn to outscore an increasingly desperate Wolves side who have to pick themselves up from a crushing defeat & have won only once in 13 league games, odds of 11/5 for Rovers look very tasty.

(Gaffer Andy Hessenthaler is looking to guide the Gills to a fifth straight victory)

Gillingham entertain Crewe Alexandra at the Priestfield Stadium in a League Two clash, there are five points between the two sides as they both chase a play-off spot with Gillingham 8th & Crewe 10th. The Gills have overcome a difficult spell at the turn of the year & are in great form currently with four league wins in a row, three of these wins have come at home where they have had a good record all season with 10 victories from 17 matches & only 3 defeats. Visitors Crewe have drawn their last four games with the last three ending 1-1, of late they have only picked up two points out of a possible 12 in their last four away games with defeats to Barnet & Southend. We believe that Gillingham will be too strong for Crewe at evens.

Selections:
Carlisle United to beat Bury at 5/6 (various)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at 11/5 (BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Gillingham to beat Crewe Alexandra at evens (various)

Beware the Pog!

There's a full day's worth of televised football on Sunday with the Tyne-Wear derby on ESPN, a heavyweight clash in the Championship between Cardiff & West Ham on the BBC & Sky showing Fulham v Wolves & then Spurs v Man United. We've had a look at the games to see if there are any decent prices available in an effort to follow up our 2 of 3 success on Saturday with a lay of Liverpool & backing Ipswich to beat Bristol City.

(Pavel Pogrebnyak will look to strike early for Fulham)

It seems to be becoming a weekly occurrence for us but we're yet again going to be opposing Wolverhampton Wanderers, this week the league's joint worst road defence face a Fulham side at Craven Cottage who have the most goals at home outside of the league's top 5. Fulham faced a challenging start to their season & took until their 7th game to register a win but they've been pretty good of late with just 2 losses from their last 9 league games & the 3 home defeats have come against good sides in Everton, Spurs & Man United & they've registered wins against much better sides than Wolves here including Arsenal, Liverpool & Newcastle. Wolves showed great resolve last week by coming back from 2-0 down against Newcastle to get a draw showing why they're the team with most points from losing positions but that stat tells a story as they are so often slow starters & that includes them scoring the least goals of any side in the opening 15 minutes of games. Caretaker boss Terry Connor looks to have a full squad to pick from apart from summer signing Jamie O'Hara but there is an inherent lack of quality at the back & in midfield that their decent strikeforce that includes Kevin Doyle & top scorer Steven Fletcher just can't make up for. Wolves have only won once in their last 12 & that run of results was inevitably going to lead to McCarthy's departure, it's difficult to see them improving on that here. This is just the type of game Fulham's players will enjoy & new signing Mahamadou Diarra could make his first start, he's got real quality & if he gets back to close to his best will prove invaluable, their other new signing Pavel Pogrebnyak has hit the ground running opening the scoring in the last two & could do again, he's on offer at 11/2 to do just that. Fulham's attacking threat is right across the midfield & forward line with their '3-D' attack of Duff, Dempsey & Dembele all able to help create & put away plenty of chances, we fancy them to beat Wolves by at least 2 clear goals & Fulham can be backed with a -1 goal start at odds of 7/4 with Stan James.

(Lee Cattermole & Kevin Nolan could be the key to our second bet)

Looking at the other games today it's difficult to see any real value in the outright result prices but we think we've come up with an interesting double that doesn't require anyone being better than anyone else but would provide a very tidy payout. West Ham have the Championship's best away record but they have picked up 5 red cards in the league & Sam Allardyce doesn't appear to want them to curb that aggressive instinct at all. Cardiff haven't seen a red all season but the atmosphere should be red hot inside their stadium with this being such a big game & following on from their Wembley trip, in these kind of conditions tempers can flare & wild tackles can fly in & odds of 11/2 about a sending off look fair. We want to stick that bet in with a sending off in the Newcastle United v Sunderland derby where odds of 3/1 are available, neither side have had too many reds (Newcastle 2 & Sunderland 1) this season but you've always got a good chance of one with Lee Cattermole playing & this should be a real battle as it is every time these two teams meet. By putting these two bets together you can get odds of 25/1 with William Hill & it gives an interest plus a decent chance of a big payout off of small stakes.

Selections:
Fulham to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers with -1 goal start at 7/4 (Stan James)
Pavel Pogrebnyak to score first at 11/2 (BetVictor & Coral)
Double up a sending off in Cardiff v West Ham & Newcastle United v Sunderland at 25/1 (William Hill)