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Thursday, 28 February 2013

Goals to fly in for Swans & Magpies

Last Sunday was a good one for punters as Swansea won the League Cup in easy fashion & showed the odds available (as big as 4/9 against a side 3 leagues below) were just plain wrong - it's rare that happens though & it's normally harder work to find value, we're back on the trail this weekend & have a couple of selections for you.

Remember Cheltenham Festival is just a week or so around the corner & we'll be bringing you a blog & bets on each of the days as we get into the swing of things for jump racing's biggest week of the year! We'll be asking for your very best bets of the festival over the next week for a special followers' blog so if you aren't already make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney to join in - either find us there or click the Follow button above. Start sending us your best bets along with reason & the hashtag #LikeBuyingMoney & we'll include.

Swansea City vs Newcastle United

Swansea go back to the Liberty Stadium as conquering heroes after winning the League Cup at Wembley this past Sunday but they face a far higher calibre of opposition in a resurgent Newcastle United side whose form has seen a dramatic upswing after their transfer dealings in the January transfer window.

(Right back Mathieu Debuchy looks a quality signing for the Magpies)

Moussa Sissoko has been the signing who's made the most eye-catching start to his St James Park career with 3 league goals already & he's also helping to bring the best out of striker Papiss Cisse who can blow hot & cold. Although Sissoko has been the star new signing so far Gouffran has also added another dimension up front & Mathieu Debuchy is real football playing right back & he's been important in bringing about 3 wins in their last 4, only losing to in form Spurs in that sequence. The games have all been high scoring too with 3, 5, 3 & 6 goals as Alan Pardew seems to have recognised his players are far more comfortable in attack than defence, they have a nice mix of physically gifted players & technical maestros to think they could make a decent side & they'll have enough to worry Swansea.

(Swansea will want to use their League Cup win as a platform to build on)

Swansea's success in the League Cup was great for them, pre-game we suggested the final was a formality & it worked out like that, but it is testament to Michael Laudrup & the club that they took the competition seriously & were deserved victors. They need to carry that feel-good factor through for the rest of the season as the higher up the table they finish the more prize money they'll receive & the more attractive a proposition they'll be to potential signings (& their coveted crop of current players!). They'll surely play a stronger team than when up against Liverpool two weeks back & they've got the players in their first eleven to compete against anyone (the squad as a whole needs strengthening though), Michu will be looking for his 16th league goal of the season & Nathan Dyer will surely still be pumped up from his brace in the final. If Swansea do concede & fall behind there's no way their fans will allow them to be passive & accept defeat so we can see a high tempo game on the cards.

The home fans will be in full voice for the Welsh side & that could mean that they play with a little more adrenaline than usual which could just maybe set this up to be a stormer, there have been 24 goals in their last 7 home league games & Newcastle have also looked incisive in recent games so 4/5 about over 2.5 goals looks a decent punt.

Morecambe vs Rochdale

Down in League Two, Morecambe entertain Rochdale at the Globe Arena. Morecambe are in 10th place currently still have a faint outside chance of a play-off place whilst are down in 15th position.

 (Morecambe's Jack Redshaw will be looking to keep up his better than 1 goal in 2 scoring ratio)

Morecambe suffered a 3-2 defeat to in-form Burton Albion on Tuesday night but after conceding soft goals they fought back strongly after the introduction of Ryan Williams, Lewis Alessandra & Jack Redshaw to score two goals in the last ten minutes & we would expect the impressive trio to start this weekend. Sadly it put an end of a run of seven points in their last three games including an impressive 1-0 away victory at promotion chasing Port Vale. They have only suffered four defeats at home all season, in 17 matches, & they have a decent record against sides who are lower than them in the league (W6, D5 & L1).

Visitors Rochdale suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home against Accrington Stanley & it's been typical of their recent form since the turn of the year where have only won once & suffered five defeats. On the road they have struggled all season & they have failed to pick up any points in five of their last eight away games. They are leaky on the road & have conceded on average two goals per game which means results are always going to be hard to come by.

We expect Morecambe to be too strong for a leaky Rochdale side & grab the three points which will keep their small glimmer of hope in the play-off chase at the best odds of 13/10.

Over 2.5 goals Swansea City vs Newcastle United at 4/5 (SkyBet, Bet365 & Stan James)
Morecambe to beat Rochdale at 13/10 (SkyBet & BetVictor)

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