Monday Night Football - Magpies gonna sing the Sky Blues

A nice start to the Premier League season this weekend with plenty of new signings making their mark including our tip for top scorer honours Roberto Soldado, Simon Mignolet in goal for Liverpool & Ricky van Wolfswinkel for Norwich. It wasn't too bad for us on a betting front either with Rickie Lambert sealing a perfect 2 out of 2 with his last minute penalty to bring up the Southampton draw no bet winner to add to West Ham's impressive home victory. We're keen on both sides to have good seasons, Southampton have landed the striker they very much needed to help loosen Lambert's load with the capture of Roma's Pablo Osvaldo & West Ham can challenge for a top 7 spot if continuing their excellent home form from last year.

Here though we're going to take our first look at Monday Night Football for this season with the dysfunctional Newcastle United travelling to take on Manuel Pellegrini's new look Manchester City side in a game that is important for City to win if they're to lay down a marker of their intent.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

(New Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini - he's from Santiago...)

Manchester City certainly signalled their intent at the end of last season with the removal of Roberto Mancini, his backroom staff & the superbly talented but troublesome Carlos Tevez (with Balotelli also departing 5 months before). They've signed players who're at the age & performance levels that they should be able to contribute straight away & all seem to fit areas of the team where upgrades could've argued to have been needed - it's a strategy that other clubs seem to have failed at (United & Arsenal failing to sign anybody & Chelsea seeming to sign players in just one position - they now have 732 creative midfielders...). Spending just £14.9m on Jesus Navas looks an inspired bit of business in today's extortionate market as the winger has bags of pace & offers genuine width that City lacked previously. Navas will be able to link up with Negredo straight away (they both came from Sevilla) & he'll find the underrated Edin Dzeko a superb target to cross to also. Pellegrini has been tasked with getting his side to play more attractive football than they sometimes did under Mancini & also to get some success in Europe compared to their humiliations over the past two years & he'll view a home match against Newcastle as a good opportunity to begin.

 (Cheick Tiote could be given the runaround by Yaya Toure & co.)

City should have a more attacking philosophy than last year & although they may concede a few more (they were the meanest in the league in 2012-13 with 34 conceded) they won't mind that if they can turn a few draws into wins. We'd say it was more the strategy than the personnel which contributed to City's good defensive record as we're not keen on Hart in goal & although Kompany & Zabaleta are stars we're not so sure about Clichy at left back or whoever they pair Kompany with. Gareth Barry looks to have lost his place with loan deals mooted & that should mean a pacey, scary lineup in this game with the freakishly powerful Yaya Toure & the delightfully talented Fernandinho likely to prove too much for Newcastle to handle in the centre of the pitch. Cheick Tiote's form dipped considerably last year & James Perch lacks the necessary quality, whilst the promising youngster Gael Bigirimana would find this a big ask - they could struggle to both win possession & keep it here & that will strangle the supply to their key attacking players of Gutierrez, Ben Arfa & Cabaye.


Newcastle's off-field issues have been commented on plenty & the problem we see from the off is that they underperformed last season yet haven't been able to do much business in the transfer market to attempt to rectify that with just the minor signing of Oliver Kemen ( a French midfielder surprise, surprise) & the loan signing of Loic Remy coming in so far. They struggled on the road last year with just two league wins (against QPR & Aston Villa) & the lack of firepower without Demba Ba particularly hurt them meaning draws tended to be the aim. That does mean they're used to trying to frustrate opposing sides & they've two very good defenders in Collocini & Santon plus a decent keeper in Tim Krul. The problem is as noted above that they probably won't have too much protection in front of the back four & their other defenders lack a bit of real quality with, for our money, Steven Taylor being a particularly poor player to have played so many Premier League seasons. To be fair Mathieu Debuchy only joined last January & he may well be bedded in now & he's certainly a step up on Danny Simpson at right back.

(City's Stevan Jovetic (right) could be value at 7/4 to score anytime)

This could be a long night for Newcastle & we've a feeling that City will come bursting out of the blocks in this one & could take a grip of the game early on, with that in mind the 9/10 that BetVictor (fast becoming our favourite bookies for football betting) offer for a Man City half time/full time result is the suggested punt. City managed that in 9 of their 19 home games last season & although that suggests odds on isn't a fair price Newcastle are a weaker side than many & poor travellers. The other selection is contingent on him being in the starting lineup & that is Stevan Jovetic anytime goalscorer at 7/4 - the skillful Monetengrin knocked in 27 goals in 58 league games for Fiorentina over the past two years & that's pretty close to the magic 1 in 2 so the odds are very fair.

Selections:
Manchester City half time/full time at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Stevan Jovetic to score at anytime at 7/4 (General) if he starts 

Yaya can inspire City to South Coast win

Weekend football again after the midweek friendlies  & these are fixtures that make for a far better betting proposition than players running around halfheartedly & mass changes at half time. We're certainly hoping for better results than when watching the Ravens win the Super Bowl, or more accurately the 49ers lose it after a hopeless start to the game!

Southampton vs Manchester City

Southampton have been a much talked about team over the past few weeks after replacing Nigel Adkins with Spaniard Mauricio Pochettino & then putting up an impressive performance, although ultimately losing, when facing Man Utd at Old Trafford, they've got a tough game at St Mary's in the day's late kickoff when they take on Manchester City.

(City have got rid of Balotelli & have Yaya Toure back - winners on all fronts)

Both teams have been hard to beat recently with Southampton losing only 2 of their last 9 league games & City just twice all season but both have dropped points to drawn games with 6 from the Saints in that 9 game sequence & City have lost crucial momentum & ground on United with draws against QPR & Liverpool in their last two. There's good reason to think that City can get back to winning ways here though as Mancini can't afford to be cautious with wins all that matter now that they're 9 points behind the leaders & maybe their very best player, Yaya Toure, returning after Africa Cup of Nations duties.

Yaya is one of the finest midfielders in the world & can impose his will on nearly any side at will & could be coming up against Morgan Schneiderlin in this one in what looks a mismatch in favour of City man. Southampton have a few injury worries to key players with Adam Lallana a doubt & defenders Luke Shaw, Jose Fonte & Nathanial Clyne joining him. Record signing Gaston Ramires is another who may not play & with that list of injury worries it's looking like a bad time to face the current champions.

Pochettino hasn't yet eked out a win whilst in charge of Southampton & although they've looked far more resilient than when leaking goals at the start of the year we can't see anything other than a win for Manchester City & odds of 4/6 with BetVictor look fair. City have too many weapons & are able to break teams down through skill through the likes of David Silva & Sergio Aguero or through physical dominance from players like Yaya Toure & the underappreciated Edin Dzeko & they'll pounce on any defensive weakness.

Norwich City vs Fulham

Norwich against Fulham may not be the most glamorous tie of the season but this is an intriguing one & important for both as points have been thin on the ground for the two teams sat level in the table on 28 points. Norwich boss Chris Hughton also served 3 years as Jol's assistant whilst at Tottenham & the Canaries will be keen to gain revenge for a 5-0 drubbing on the opening day from their London opponents.

(Martin Jol is seeking a rare away Fulham win)

Norwich haven't won in their past 8 league games & haven't managed to score in 4 of those, with none of their players having managed more than 5 goals in all competitions & Grant Holt certainly hasn't looked so impressive as last year after failing to engineer a move away from Carrow Road. They're reasonable at the back but miss John Ruddy in goal (long term injury) & have injury concerns about usual starters Alex Tettey & Anthony Pilkington.

Fulham rarely pick up wins in away games & they've stuttered after a great start to the season when they won 5 of 9 but the signs have been a bit better in recent games with their only losses in their last 5 league games coming against the Manchester sides whilst gaining wins away at West Brom &  at home against West Ham. They showed a lot of resistance last week against Man Utd, going down 1-0 to a late Rooney goal & they may have star player Dimitar Berbatov back for this after injury. Jol will also have found a bit of time to work with his January loan signings, of whom Urby Emanuelson & Emmanuel Frimpong look like they could be useful. Frimpong will certainly add a much needed bit of bite to the Fulham midfield & that could prove the area that they can better their hosts in this one.

Backing Fulham on the road is usually a sure way to the poor house but there have been encouraging signs in recent games whilst Norwich's form has slumped & they look bereft of attacking ideas, take the Cottagers to win at nice odds of 23/10. Checking the team sheets is advised in this game as Fulham did have more players on international duty, we jut think they've got a bit more going for them than Norwich who seem to be lacking in quality & confidence.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Southampton at 4/6 (BetVictor)
Fulham to beat Norwich at 23/10 (BetVictor)

Potters can ensure City get stuck in mud on way to cup progress

Two out of two wins for us on the football last week (the NFL was not so successful though) with nice wins for Doncaster & Cardiff at decent odds. We've another two selections at odds against for matches from this Saturday's fixture list including a cup match featuring the finalists from 2011. As always you can keep up to date with our latest thoughts & blog updates by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above, our Super Bowl preview will be up soon & we're continuing to provide the winners with regularity.

Stoke City vs Manchester City

In the early FA Cup game of the weekend (12.45 kickoff) overall joint favourites for the cup Man City travel to take on Stoke at the fortress like Britannia Stadium but this is a significant hurdle on the path to Wembley for the Citizens & we've a feeling their odds on status for this one looks a false price.

(Asmir Begovic is a top keeper & can help keep the starry City strikers at bay)

Stoke have encountered a rare rough patch of form in the league recently with three successive losses but those games were far from easy, starting off with a 3-0 loss to today's rivals City at the Etihad, then their only home loss of the season in 90 minutes when two own goals & a missed penalty from Jon Walters contributed to a 4-0 defeat by Chelsea. Last weekend they fell foul to the slick of passing & high in confidence Swansea, they'll feel far better back at home & with the chance to gain vengeance for their 2011 cup final loss to City.
Before this sticky patch Stoke had really been going great guns with 5 wins & 5 draws in an unbeaten league run from early November & even with their lack of goals (22 in 23 games) they remain hard to beat & are the Premier League's draw kings with 11 so far (48%).

The Potters have struggled in recent weeks with injuries at the full back positions & to cover that weakness they may look to pack the midfield & frustrate City who are without key player Yaya Toure & even though they've won 4 in a row in the league that run may be a little less impressive than it looks. The 3-0 win against Stoke was certainly a good result but City looked porous when beating Norwich 4-3, their 2-0 win against Arsenal came after Koscielny was sent off early on & the 2-0 win last week came against Fulham who are in free-fall & are dreadful on the road. You can of course only beat what's put in front of you but we recall that Mancini's men were frustrated & beaten at Sunderland on Boxing Day & had laboured to a last gasp win against Reading before that. Mancini may switch things around in terms of team selection but any potential of weakening would be a mistake against a resolute Stoke side, the best odds look to be for a draw at odds of 11/4.

Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday

In the Championship we see two in-form teams in Charlton & Sheffield Wednesday at the Valley but we reckon this will be the end (at least temporarily) for Wednesday's ascent away from the relegation zone as Chris Powell's men look to turnaround their loss at Hillsborough a month ago.

(Yann Kermorgant can help Charlton dominate the Wednesday midfield)

Charlton have picked up three wins in a row (all by the odd goal) & look to be well clear of the drop zone & could even make a surprise push for a playoff place in the congested division. The Addicks have carried a bit more of an attacking threat in recent games with the goals shared around various players, it's a shame that last year's regular scorer Bradley Wright-Phillips has been unable to reproduce his form at this higher level. Charlton's home form hasn't really been that impressive this year but they have been beaten the leaders Cardiff (in a dramatic 5-4) & 2nd place Leicester so victory agaisnt 4th from bottom Wednesday should be within their scope.

Wednesday had looked like they may be fighting a lost cause up until early December - they'd gone on a losing run of 7 which closely followed a previous run of 7 losses & 2 draws but they've recently been far better with just one loss in 7 (2-0 to Burnley). It's difficult to ascertain where this improvement has come from as new signings haven't happened & look unlikely to do so without other players moving on. Llera remains a rock at the centre of their defence & Antonio's form has certainly seen an upswing with his pace a constant menace even though his final product remains inconsistent. They may have just run into some flaky teams recently (Bolton are chief culprits in this category) & we can't leave Charlton alone at odds bigger than evens, take odds of 11/8 for a home win.

Selections:
Stoke City vs Manchester City to draw at 11/4 (Various)
Charlton Athletic to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 11/8 (BetVictor)

Real to show City what being Elite in Europe is all about

The Champions League begins again this Tuesday & is undoubtedly the premier club competition in the world, we're taking a look at the glamorous Real Madrid vs Man City tie plus have a pick from the lowest tier of English professional football as we seek the value high & low.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

Manchester City embark on their second season in the Champions League after disappointing last year & going out at the group stage & in their opener they face maybe the toughest fixture in Europe when taking on Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. Mancini will almost certainly be sending his side out with the intention of nicking a draw but that could prove some way beyond them if Madrid can pick themselves up after a very poor start to their league season.

(Will Manchester City be able to cope with the skills of Angel Di Maria?)

Mourinho has publicly questioned his players spirit, suggesting they've only really got up for their Spanish Super Cup games with arch rivals Barcelona so far & they slumped to defeat at Sevilla at the weekend. That Sevilla game could prove a bit of a wake up call though & they have players who tend to be able to rise to the occasion & this is the greatest club competition in the world. Real Madrid won all of their home games in the competition last year & only went out in the semis by penalties, Man City meanwhile struggled on their travels & only picked up a win in their group when taking on the woeful Villareal who ended up without a single point. It takes a while to learn how to play in Europe & City are taking their first tentative steps, of course they weren't helped last year with the Carlos Tevez situation & that is at least seemingly behind them plus Sergio Aguero looks to coming back to full fitness offering them outstanding striking options.

Real do have the pedigree though & the weapons to hurt City, if the English side are potentially vulnerable it would be down the flanks & Cristiano Ronaldo will look to get at Zabaleta & Di Maria will be all over Gael Clichy down the right hand side. They'll have Gonzalo Higuain in the middle & he's looked pretty hot so far this season, taking advantage of Benzema's continuing struggles after a poor Euro 2012 for France. As well as being able to do the pretty stuff Madrid aren't afraid to get physical & they could need to here if they are to stop the rampaging Yaya Toure. We just feel that Madrid are a bit of value at odds of 3/4 at home as they'll look to win this whereas Mancini's caution & City's inexperience could mean they don't offer enough going forward to relieve pressure from defence.

Bradford City vs Morecambe

(James Hanson has 4 goals in all competitions this season)

In League Two Bradford City entertain Morecambe at Valley Parade, after six games each Bradford are in 7th place with 10 points whilst Morecambe are a couple of points back & in 13th. The Bantams have had their struggles on the road so far but have a perfect record in front of their own fans having comprehensively beaten Barnet & AFC Wimbledon (7-0 on aggregate) & also gaining a good 1-0 victory over 3rd place Fleetwood Town. Striking trio James Hanson, summer signing Alan Connell & rising star Nahki Wells have already scored seven league goals between them & will be relishing the prospect of facing a Morecambe defence which has conceded nine goals in six league matches. Morecambe have had a thoroughly mixed start so far with two wins, two draws & two defeats. Most recently Morecambe took 4-0 derby hammering from Fleetwood & that was followed by a dire 0-0 draw against Aldershot on Saturday where they failed to register a single shot on target. Bradford strikers can do the business against an average Morecambe side & bag the three points at the reasonable odds of 5/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Real Madrid to beat Manchester City at 3/4 (BetVictor)
Bradford City to beat Morecambe at 5/6 (Coral)

Can City's Defence Clean Sheet up their act?

We're only just into the football season but plenty of teams are already being acclaimed or damned & maybe some of those sides will show that making cast iron statements based on just 2 or 3 games isn't wise as we move on in the next few weeks & months. By Saturday all of the transfer business will have been sorted & we'll know exactly what players teams have until December at least, we've got some more bets up as we look to improve after a decidedly dodgy start (not helped by some decidedly dodgy keeping by Messrs Green & Jaaskelainen!) & we're keen not to fall into a trap of basing everything on a few games played so far.

Manchester City vs Queens Park Rangers

In the day's late game we see a rematch of the incredible game on the last day of the season as Man City host QPR at the Etihad, QPR nearly denied City the title that day but we don't see them getting close this time

(Somewhat unfairly maligned on arrival - Joleon Lescott has become an integral part of Man City's defence)

This is a matchup between the teams with last season's best home record & worst away record & that bodes ominously badly for Mark Hughes's men especially with City looking to bounce back after drawing at Anfield. City will again be without Sergio Aguero up front but our antepost top scorer tip Carlos Tevez is looking razor sharp & should prove hard to stop for QPR's somewhat porous defence that conceded 66 goals in the league last year. QPR have made many signings this year, of mainly older players with Premier League experience, & we reckon they'll be alright in the end but may take a few games to gel whereas City are very much an established unit & have looked very good going forwards.

City haven't had any problems in attack so far but he may be slightly concerned that the team have conceded two goals in their opening two games & he experimented with a back three last week as he had done in may pre season games. Mancini will be confident they'll score here & so we expect him to have drilled his players on the defensive side of the game this week as he looks to get a clean sheet & shut any critics up. City control a lot of games possession wise, have a fine defence & a very good keeper in Joe Hart in behind - it's easy to see how they ended with 11 clean sheets in their 19 home games last year & we reckon they're in for another in this one.

Odds of 5/4 about a Man City win whilst keeping a clean sheet look an excellent bet especially when you can only get 11/8 with a -2 head start which shows how much the bookies think they have in hand over the visitors. We can't see past a City win & Tevez can bag another, odds of 4/1 for him to be first scorer look fair but we can't recommend it with so many other potential scorers & Super Mario on the penalties too.

Swansea City vs Sunderland

(Michael Laudrup chose not to take part in Denmark's 1992 Euro win - is he the best decision maker?)

Elsewhere in the Premier League we see on-song Swansea take on Sunderland at home & there will be plenty of form merchants believing that the Swans are a good bet after thumping 5-0 & 3-0 victories in their opening two league games & a win in the League Cup too. A top price of 5/4 is available for the home team but we're not sure that offers a great deal of value for a side that were tipped up by many to struggle this season, they've had a nice start but have been fortunate to come up against QPR who were dreadful in their opener & then West Ham gifted them a two goal lead through a keeping & then defensive error whilst otherwise looking just as competitive until then.

We've seen plenty of commentators going a bit over the top about Swansea & reckon that Martin O'Neill will have his men well drilled to stop their passing game & soak up pressure just like they did at Arsenal in their opening fixture.We think that the Mackems have made a wonderful signing in Adam Johnson who is right up there in terms of skilful English players & their other big signing, Steven Fletcher, will relish the service he'll get from Johnson, James McClean & the unselfish & inventive Stephane Sessegnon. Sunderland have also looked to shore up their back line with the signing of Carlos Cuellar & he'll provide some cover & competition to some somewhat injury prone players at the back.

O'Neill's side coped well with Arsenal & they are clearly a superior outfit to Swansea who play a similar style, they missed their next league game against Reading due to a waterlogged pitch but that just meant more preparation time for this game & they won well in the League Cup the other night. Sunderland mightn't be too adventurous going forwards themselves & that means the draw at odds of 12/5 looks a big player in the market for us & this could well end up a goalless stalemate, no goalscorer is available at 9/1 & is worth a small bet.

Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient

In League One, promoted Crawley Town take on Leyton Orient at the Broadfield Stadium, both sides played higher league opposition this week in the Capital One Cup & now return to League One where Crawley are 7th & Leyton Orient are second from bottom after three games played.

(Summer signing Gary Alexander celebrates his brace against Scunthorpe)

Despite losing manager Sean O'Driscoll to Nottingham Forest late in the summer the appointment of Richie Barker from rivals Bury could prove a shrewd move with his knowledge of the league. His side bounced back from a 3-0 drubbing away at Swindon Town with an excellent hard fought win at Doncaster Rovers 1-0 to record their second league victory of the season. It's also their second clean sheet & striking duo Gary Alexander & Nicky Ajose are in good form with three of their four league goals.

Leyton Orient game last weekend was postponed in unusual circumstances when visitors Hartlepool coach was stuck in traffic. This leaves them with two defeats against Tranmere Rovers (3-1) & Stevenage (0-1) from two games in the league so far. Their only league goal has been a late consolation penalty & they seem to have a long hard season ahead of them.

Crawley at home with strikers in-form should be too strong for an average Leyton Orient outfit & can collect the three points at best odds of 8/11, they'll be buoyed by a fabulous win against Bolton in the League Cup & should win easily here.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Queens Park Rangers to nil at 5/4 (Skybet)
Swansea v Sunderland - Draw at 12/5 (Various)
Crawley Town to beat Leyton Orient at 8/11 (Coral, Totesport & Betfred)

No goalscorer at 9/1 in the Swansea v Sunderland game at 9/1 (Bet365, Skybet & Ladbrokes)

Clash of the Manchester Titans - City v United

Monday night sees what is for all intents & purposes a Premier League title decider as Manchester City host Manchester United at the Etihad in maybe the biggest domestic game of football in the last ten years. Will United's old guard, so full of experience & with mantelpieces full of winners medals already be able to keep the hungry upstarts, backed by billions at bay? We've had a look at the fixture & tried to find a few betting angles in what will be an engrossing fixture for even neutrals who haven't had a punt. The football season is drawing to a close & we'll soon be concentrating more on the flat racing season, we had 3 winners from 3 picks on Sunday & you can keep up to date with the latest posts by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney either click the Follow button above or find us on there.

(Ferguson & Mancini will be going into tactical battle in this one)

Sir Alex Ferguson summed up how difficult it is to call the result of this match when noting that his United side were coming here to the Etihad with the league's best away record only to face up against City who have the league's best home record, the Citizens are unbeaten here all season & have only dropped points the once when drawing 3-3 with Sunderland at the end of last month. That game against Sunderland has rather symbolised City over the past couple of months with them looking out of that game & the title race only to continue to battle right to the end & drag themselves right back into things with every chance of getting the win. Carlos Tevez's return has been a catalyst for City's very recent impressive form, with him & fellow Argentinian Sergio Aguero really striking up the type of partnership that was anticipated & eagerly hoped for by City at the start of the season. The City strikeforce is backed up by a superb mix of solidity & style in midfield with Gareth Barry & Yaya Toure controlling many games between them this year & giving the ball to players such as Silva, Milner, Johnson & Nasri who can provide the openings for the strikers. It's often said that the midfield battle is where games are won & you'd have to worry for United if they played with the same setup seen in the last few weeks with a pretty much orthodox 4-4-2. Paul Scholes & Michael Carrick were simply bullied & overrun against Everton at times last week & Ferguson will surely stick another player into the centre to help them out, that could be Wayne Rooney but that would leave them a little light up front with Hernandez, courtesy of a hot run back in October/November the only other player with double figures in league goals. It seems unlikely that Hernandez will be starting in this one though, some of his recent displays have been of a very low quality with poor link up play & getting caught offside on numerous occasions, instead Danny Welbeck could be trusted to lead the line on his own, the young Englishman has been adding more consistency to his displays but now needs to start adding the goals that will see him become a feared striker.

(Nani was checking his usual bad self with an excellent offensive performance last week & looks to have earned himself a new contract at United)

After United conceded four against Everton a last Sunday an awful lot was written & said about a 'dodgy defence' but that may be a little unfair as they've conceded the 2nd least amount of goals in the league (32) behind only City (25) & if you took out the extraordinary 4-4 last weekend & the incredible 6-1 in the reverse fixture then they would have looked outstanding, in the league at least. United have 17 clean sheets from 35 games so there isn't anything fundamentally wrong defensively & that's with missing arguably the world's best centre back in Nemanja Vidic for most of the season. Rafael remains a worry at right back as he seems to lack composure at times & has a questionable temperament & City may target him here, Ferdinand & Evans sometimes look a little ill at ease with burly old fashioned centre forwards but may be more comfortable against the technically excellent Tevez & Aguero. City's defence has been magnificent, especially at home where they've conceded just 10 goals all season & it looks like Micah Richards will be fit & ready to replace Zabaleta after missing their last two games. City have won their last three games & only conceded once in that little run when beating Norwich 6-1 but when you take a look at the opposition they have faced two promoted teams including woeful Wolves away from home & a limited West Brom side at home, before that they had gone on a run of 5 games with just one win (2-1 against Chelsea) so it would be unwise to take too much from the last three. City looked pensive at times against Wolves last weekend & although never in danger of conceding it was maybe illustrative of Mancini's dilemma here, do they go all out for the win from the start, do they push on if they get a lead?

(Carlos Tevez will be looking to make a point against his former club & to his current employers)

The game really is a tough one to call for either team & we're not going to, City's recent form has probably been overplayed & so have United's defensive frailties, at the same time it's difficult to imagine a goalless draw as City have had only one all year (at West Brom) & United haven't had one at all. The draw is available at 5/2 & don't worry about Ferguson saying United always go for the win, that's nonsense as anyone who saw the Blackburn game at the end of last season will testify, Ferguson is the ultimate pragmatist & will happily settle for the draw that would put his side in the driving seat. We said we don't like a 0-0 result so how about 1-1 instead, the price for that is 13/2 with several firms & we're huge fans of Carlos Tevez's footballing ability - it seems the script is written for him to score here, back him to score first & the 1-1 draw at 40/1 in a scorecast.

Selections:
Manchester City v Manchester United to draw at 5/2 (various)
1-1 correct score at 13/2 (various)
Tevez 1-1 scorecast at 40/1

Notts County's New Manager Syndrome can continue

Another weekend of football action is upon us & we're hoping to carry our recent form through for a football tipping title push after three of three up last weekend & then a nice midweek pairing coming up trumps to make it a nice period of winners. We might be getting ambitious though as our picks today include an 18/1 chance to break a 100% home record but fortune favours the brave & all that. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above & we'll let you know about our latest posts & answer any questions you may have, good luck!

(Can Notts County's new man in charge Keith Curle continue his winning start?)

In League One, Notts County entertain Chesterfield United at Meadow Lane. Notts County are 10th just five points off the play-off places whilst Chesterfield are 23rd & in a relegation battle. Keith Curle, new manager of the Magpies, won his first game in charge on Wednesday night against one of the league's real form sides in Stevenage & their current form is good with three wins in their last four & only one defeat in their last six league games - at home this season they have won eight out of 15 games & only been beaten twice. Opposition Chesterfield have struggled all season especially on the road where they have suffered ten defeats in their 16 away matches, only once in these games have they stopped the opposition scoring and they have conceded on average over two goals per game. Notts County can prove too strong for a struggling Chesterfield side at a best price of 10/11 with Coral.

(Loanee Alex Macdonald has 3 in 3 for Plymouth)

In League Two, Plymouth Argyle host Dagenham & Redbridge at Home Park, Plymouth are in 21st position & Dagenham are rock bottom so three points for either side will be huge. The Pilgrims have had a tough season off the pitch so far but seem to be putting together a run of points of late & last weekend they won away at Accrington Stanley 4-0, in their last six league matches they have won two, drawn three & suffered only one defeat. At home Plymouth are unbeaten in their last four matches; beating Burton & drawing against promotion hopefuls Crawley Town & Southend United as well as Barnet. Visitors Dagenham have suffered five defeats in their last six league games & their latest game saw them thrashed 5-0 by Cheltenham Town, on the road they have lost ten of their fourteen games; conceding 25 goals in the process. We expect Plymouth to continue their recent good form at the expense of Dagenham at a best price of 11/10 with Boylesports.

(We might be relying on Paul Robinson having a good game v City - oh dear)

Manchester City take on Blackburn Rovers at the Etihad where they have won all 12 games that they've played in the league so far this season, it therefore might seem fanciful to think that Blackburn a team just two points off of the bottom of the league could come here & end that streak but there are reasons to believe they're a value bet in this one. City haven't dropped points in the league at home but a 1-0 loss to Liverpool in the Carling Cup here last month has made them realise they aren't impervious & their form since Christmas hasn't been quite up to the very high standards they set before. Of course now Yaya & Kolo Toure are back from the Africa Cup of Nations that gives the home side a boost as will the outstanding Carlos Tevez if & when he makes his return & that may see them get back to some high quality play that has been missing in games against West Brom, Sunderland, Liverpool, Everton & Villa since 25th December. For the most part City have still got the results needed & that's seen them stay two points clear in the title race but Blackburn are a team capable of causing an upset as seen when winning 3-2 at Old Trafford. Rovers score goals & plenty of them with 37 in 25 so far but they've also conceded more than any other side & with Chris Samba likely to leave soon he won't be involved & they've missed the departed Phil Jones too. At the other end of the pitch for Rovers Yakubu offers obvious quality as does Junior Hoilett & Gamst Pedersen & they'll look to give City's defence problems. Blackburn have had a two week rest since last playing whereas City have impressively taken care of Porto over two legs in the Europa League, that means they have momentum but Blackburn will be resolute & rested here & Steve Kean has had time to develop a plan to shock the league leaders. Of course the most likely result is a City win & if they score early it could be a rout, but as we saw against United Blackburn have the physical game to unsettle classier sides & at a huge 18/1 are worth taking a risk on to win here.

Selections:
Notts County to beat Chesterfield United at 10/11 (Coral)
Plymouth Argyle to beat Dagenham & Redbridge at 11/10 (Boylesports)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Manchester City at 18/1 (BetVictor)

Europa League - Schalke's Strikers to Shoot them to glory

Normally the Europa League doesn't hold too much interest for English football fans but only two years ago Fulham made the final with Liverpool in the other semi final & this year sees giants Manchester United in this competition rather than fighting out the Champions League latter stages as usual. United are joined in the knockout stage by title rivals Manchester City & 1970s throwbacks Stoke City bring their unique style to the continent, there are some good bets to be had this Thursday night plus we're looking at an outright winner as well.

(Porto's new signing from Brazilian club Santos, Danilo looks quite a player)

Manchester City's Champions league campaign failed to ignite in a tough group also containing German powerhouses Bayern Munich & a useful Napoli side, City performed creditably at home with two wins (one against a weakened Bayern side) & a draw but their only points away from home came against hapless & pointless Villareal & City face a daunting away trip to opponents F.C. Porto in this first knockout round of the Europa League. Porto are the current holders of this cup, gaining that victory under previous coach Andre Villas-Boas & have an arguably stronger squad than last season as they sold star forward Radamel Falcao for 40m Euros but retained most of the rest of the team (although Falcao's fellow Colombian Fredy Guarin has just joined Inter on loan with an option for a permanent move). Porto have bolstered their squad with Steven Defour & Eliaquim Mangala from Standard Liege plus have brought in two of Brazil's brightest defensive talents in Alex Sandro & Danilo, Danilo a midfielder & right back signed in the January transfer window looks to have all the attributes needed to be a world star. The Portuguese league isn't known for being ultra competitive, Porto won without losing a match last year, but they've still only conceded 12 goals in their 18 games so far, although they trail Benfica by 5 points, showing just how watertight they can be. Up front Hulk continues to be a menace scoring goals himself & getting plenty of assists, he's struck up a decent partnership with fellow Brazilian Kleber & they'll cause City problems here.

City haven't had the greatest runs of form since Christmas, going out of the Cups & drawing away to West Brom & losing away to Sunderland & Everton, in fact their only away wins in the league since 5th November came against rock bottom Wigan & a negative Villa side this past weekend. The Citizens haven't looked nearly so good without Africa Cup of Nations competitors the Toure brothers & will be hoping to have them back as soon as possible after their disappointing loss in the final, they probably won't be back in time for this game though & City still won't have the presence of Yaya driving them forwards from midfield. Although still great at home Mancini's cautiousness means City are unlikely to be too expansive here & would surely settle for a draw, that's dangerous as Porto are a top notch team & although they disappointed in the Champions League they'll look to rally & will want to take a lead to Manchester. Bearing in mind City may settle for a draw we think that Porto at Evens in the draw no bet market is a real tempter & should be backed, they'll need a result here before going to the Etihad next Wednesday.

(How do you stop him scoring? Udinese's 34 year old phenomenon Antonio Di Natale)

Udinese weren't able to qualify for the Champions League after meeting Arsenal in the qualifying rounds but they came through in 2nd place behind a good Atletico Madrid side in their Europa League group with Celtic behind & now they come up against Greek side PAOK Saloniki in their first knockout game. PAOK topped the group containing Tottenham & beat them at White Hart Lane thanks to a lightning fast start, scoring twice in the first quarter of an hour against their hosts who began lethargically & then couldn't ever claw their way back, it does need to be mentioned that Spurs never really seemed to be too concerned with the competition though. PAOK also managed a very creditable draw away to Rubin Kazan which is no mean feat & they are worthy of respect although they are now shorn of star winger Vierinha who moved to Wolfsburg in the transfer window, he was a real goal threat & they'll now have to rely even more heavily on academy product Stefanos Athanasiadis who's managed 4 goals this year in the competition. Udinese lost some of their top players for big prices in the Summer with Alexis Sanchez & Christian Zapata heading to Spain whilst Gokhan Inler moved to Napoli but they've coped admirably & currently sit 4th in Serie A. Veteran & club legend Antonio Di Natale is still banging the goals in at the age of 34, he was on fire with 28 league goals last year & has carried that on in 2011-12. Udinese will be hoping to have the Ghanaians Kwadwo Asamoah & Badu back but even if they don't they should be able to break PAOK down & a price of 4/5 for Udinese to prevail looks too good to be true, PAOK will likely come to defend meaning a win to nil is likely & we like the look of a 2-0 home win at 7/1.

(Things haven't always gone totally to plan for City & Mancini in Europe - why are they favourites?)

In terms of outright winners it seems fair to see Manchester's City & United at the head of the market although we can't quite work out why City are ahead of last year's Champions League finalists especially as they have to first get past a classy Porto side just to progress past the first knockout stage. The worry with having a bet on either of the English sides is whether they'll be treating this competition with enough respect to actually win it, Ferguson used words to the effect that it was a punishment having to play in the Thursday night competition & he has left Patrice Evra, Ryan Giggs & Dimitar Berbatov at home for their first away trip to Ajax although there has been no injury news as of yet. There should be motivation for winning the competition for Ferguson as it is the one trophy that has so far evaded him both with Aberdeen & United & we'd be much keener to back them at the prices, especially given their European pedigree, than Man City, even if Mancini can keep his combustible squad operating it seems difficult to believe they can keep up the pace on two fronts especially now that their rivals are breathing down their necks in the all-important title race.

(Schalke's Raul & Huntelaar may just be the best strike partnership in Europe)

Instead we really like the look of the German side Schalke 04 to take this at odds of 12/1, they won the competition back in its days of the UEFA Cup in 1997 & their free flowing football can prove dangerous to any opponents that face them. Although Schalke faced a bad loss to league rivals Borussia Monchengladbach this past weekend they had previously been on a great run of form losing just twice since 24th September & their strike force of Real Madrid legend Raul & Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has been particularly successful. Huntelaar looks revitalised after not quite living up to expectations at first Real Madrid & then AC Milan, his understanding with Raul is especially impressive with them linking up regularly to torment defences. In home-grown players like wonderkid Julian Draxler & the technically talented Lewis Holtby the strikers get a great service from midfield & Christoph Metzelder provides experience in defence whilst captain Benedikt Howedes looks like he'll end up being a mainstay in central defence for the national side for years to come. The one real worry for last year's Champions League semi-finalists is that starting goalkeeper Ralf Fahrmann has been lost to injury although they've reacted quickly by bringing Timo Hildebrand back to his homeland from Sporting in Portugal. Schalke have great European experience & are likely to take treat this competition with respect & should be able to progress past Czech opponents Viktoria Plzen in this round before really unleashing a charge.

Selections:
Porto to beat Manchester City draw no bet at 10/11 (Betfred & Blue Square)
Udinese to beat PAOK Saloniki at 4/5 (Boylesports, BetVictor & William Hill)
Udinese to beat PAOK Saloniki 2-0 at 7/1 (William Hill)

Schalke to win Europa League outright at 12/1 (Various)

Summerbee's Suggestions - Manchester Derby

Our friends @stillsportmedia are embarking on an exciting new venture having teamed up with former professional footballer Nicky Summerbee. The ex Manchester City, Sunderland, Swindon Town, Bolton Wanderers, Leicester City, Nottingham Forest and Bradford City player is soon to launch a new website (www.nickysummerbee.co.uk) in conjunction with the South West based business, to find out more about the new website follow Nicky on twitter @Summerbee7 for the latest updates. Still Sports Media kindly arranged for Nicky to predict the outcome of the Manchester Derby in the FA Cup 3rd Round. Click on the video below to see how the Altrincham born midfielder predicts the match will end up.

Manchester City are the current holders after a Yaya Toure goal gave them a narrow 1-0 victory over Stoke City last May & they bid for a sixth FA Cup in their history. They currently lead the Premier League by three points over United & come into the match on the back of a comprehensive 3-0 victory Liverpool after a mini blip of one point in two away games against WBA & Sunderland. They have a perfect record at the Etihad Stadium of ten wins from ten in the league & have scored 31 goals whilst only conceding four. Lets not forget that City have already beaten United in their own backyard 6-1 back in October & will look to tighten their hold over their bitter rivals.

(City are great going forwards & strong at the back, thanks in no small part to Vincent Kompany)

Manchester United have won the FA cup an unrivalled 11 times, but not since 2004. They have reached the semi-finals in three of the last five seasons, and have only suffered defeat once to Leeds Utd in Sir Alex Ferguson's tenure. In the Premiership they have the best away record in the league amassing 23 points from a possible 30 with seven wins, two draws & one defeat. The defeat came earlier this week to Newcastle in a 3-0 hammering & they look likely to be selecting from an unchanged squad for this game with Nemanja Vidic, Ashley Young, Jonny Evans & Chris Smalling all missing.

Thanks again to Nicky for his predictions and Still Sports Media for taking their time out to arrange and film the video.

 (Sheffield Wednesday's returning skipper Rob Jones can aid their FA Cup progress)

Also in the FA Cup Sheffield Wednesday entertain West Ham United at Hillsbrough, Wednesday are 2nd in League One whilst West Ham are joint leaders of the Championship. Wednesday have an unbeaten home record this season with 29 points out of a possible 33 with nine wins & two draws, they've pretty good recent form too having won five of their last 8 league games with only one defeat. It should be an interesting home versus away matchup as West Ham have the best away record in the Championship with seven wins, three draws & three defeats in their 13 games. We're leaning towards the Sheffield side as West Ham are struggling for form of late with three defeats in their last six games & two defeats & one draw in their last three away games. Both sides have promotion as their key objective this year but that doesn't mean that a cup run would be unwelcome, the Owls welcome back skipper Rob Jones whilst West Ham look the more likely to give their fringe players a game with the like of Frank Nouble, Robbie Hall & Dan Potts starting. From purely a value perspective the home side need to backed as this looks likely to be fairly even & Wednesday look to offer the better odds, we're going with Sheffield Wednesday to win at 19/10.

Nicky’s Selections:

Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 11/10 (General)

Manchester City to win 3-1 at 18/1 (Coral)

Our Selection:

Sheffield Wednesday to beat West Ham United at 19/10 (Paddy Power & William Hill)