Super Stoke can Lash Loser Latics

The weekend did not exactly do us at Like Buying Money proud with our football bets (Stoke v Man City draw & Charlton to beat Wednesday) looking good up to 80+ minutes & a trip to Cheltenham ruined betting wise when our punts on Imperial Commander (£30k matched in-running at 1/100) & The New One (£9k matched in-running at 1/50) also went down! We need a bit more than a minor rough patch to stop us though & the midweek fixtures seem to have thrown up a nice bet in a game between one of the league's toughest teams & one of the least resilient.

Stoke City vs Wigan Athletic

OK, so Stoke didn't quite last the full 90 minutes on Saturday against Premier League champions Manchester City but they have the chance to redeem themselves to us & followers by taking advantage of arguably the easiest fixture in the league season - a home fixture against Wigan.

(Wigan wil without Ivory Coast star Arouna Kone)

Wigan's claims for having a chance in this one must rest mainly on the fact that they are rested after fielding a weakened team in their FA Cup game against non-league Macclesfield but their league form has been poor & they have surely used up their unlikely relegation escapes in recent seasons. Wigan have conceded the second most goals so far, behind only Aston Villa who conceded 8 in one game & they've won just once in 10 with that coming against the aforementioned hapless Villa. Arouna Kone has been reasonable up front for Wigan but he's on Africa Cup of Nations duty & it's hard to see where their goals will come from against a Stoke outfit that have kept 9 clean sheets on the season.

(Jon Walters can trouble the Wigan defence instead of his own)

Asmir Begovic will return to goal for the Potters after sitting out Saturday's fixture & he will be tough to beat even if Wigan do manage to create many chances, that should mean the attacking players can play with freedom & confidence. Jon Walters remains a key player for Stoke even if he garnered unwanted attention for two own goals & a penalty miss against Chelsea & he could find success against the back three formation that Martinez likes his defence to play. Goalscoring has certainly been Stoke's problem with just 22 on the season but 14 have come at home suggesting away fixtures are more of a problem & even if Wigan put players behind the ball they'll remain vulnerable against what will likely be multiple set pieces for the home team.

It's tempting to take the odds on the under 2.5 goals scoreline but a Stoke win has to be the bet, they've only lost at home to Chelsea (league) & Man City (cup) on the season with the Brittania remaining formidable - back them at 21/20 with several firms.

Selection:
Stoke City to beat Wigan Athletic at 21/20 (Various)

Potters can ensure City get stuck in mud on way to cup progress

Two out of two wins for us on the football last week (the NFL was not so successful though) with nice wins for Doncaster & Cardiff at decent odds. We've another two selections at odds against for matches from this Saturday's fixture list including a cup match featuring the finalists from 2011. As always you can keep up to date with our latest thoughts & blog updates by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above, our Super Bowl preview will be up soon & we're continuing to provide the winners with regularity.

Stoke City vs Manchester City

In the early FA Cup game of the weekend (12.45 kickoff) overall joint favourites for the cup Man City travel to take on Stoke at the fortress like Britannia Stadium but this is a significant hurdle on the path to Wembley for the Citizens & we've a feeling their odds on status for this one looks a false price.

(Asmir Begovic is a top keeper & can help keep the starry City strikers at bay)

Stoke have encountered a rare rough patch of form in the league recently with three successive losses but those games were far from easy, starting off with a 3-0 loss to today's rivals City at the Etihad, then their only home loss of the season in 90 minutes when two own goals & a missed penalty from Jon Walters contributed to a 4-0 defeat by Chelsea. Last weekend they fell foul to the slick of passing & high in confidence Swansea, they'll feel far better back at home & with the chance to gain vengeance for their 2011 cup final loss to City.
Before this sticky patch Stoke had really been going great guns with 5 wins & 5 draws in an unbeaten league run from early November & even with their lack of goals (22 in 23 games) they remain hard to beat & are the Premier League's draw kings with 11 so far (48%).

The Potters have struggled in recent weeks with injuries at the full back positions & to cover that weakness they may look to pack the midfield & frustrate City who are without key player Yaya Toure & even though they've won 4 in a row in the league that run may be a little less impressive than it looks. The 3-0 win against Stoke was certainly a good result but City looked porous when beating Norwich 4-3, their 2-0 win against Arsenal came after Koscielny was sent off early on & the 2-0 win last week came against Fulham who are in free-fall & are dreadful on the road. You can of course only beat what's put in front of you but we recall that Mancini's men were frustrated & beaten at Sunderland on Boxing Day & had laboured to a last gasp win against Reading before that. Mancini may switch things around in terms of team selection but any potential of weakening would be a mistake against a resolute Stoke side, the best odds look to be for a draw at odds of 11/4.

Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday

In the Championship we see two in-form teams in Charlton & Sheffield Wednesday at the Valley but we reckon this will be the end (at least temporarily) for Wednesday's ascent away from the relegation zone as Chris Powell's men look to turnaround their loss at Hillsborough a month ago.

(Yann Kermorgant can help Charlton dominate the Wednesday midfield)

Charlton have picked up three wins in a row (all by the odd goal) & look to be well clear of the drop zone & could even make a surprise push for a playoff place in the congested division. The Addicks have carried a bit more of an attacking threat in recent games with the goals shared around various players, it's a shame that last year's regular scorer Bradley Wright-Phillips has been unable to reproduce his form at this higher level. Charlton's home form hasn't really been that impressive this year but they have been beaten the leaders Cardiff (in a dramatic 5-4) & 2nd place Leicester so victory agaisnt 4th from bottom Wednesday should be within their scope.

Wednesday had looked like they may be fighting a lost cause up until early December - they'd gone on a losing run of 7 which closely followed a previous run of 7 losses & 2 draws but they've recently been far better with just one loss in 7 (2-0 to Burnley). It's difficult to ascertain where this improvement has come from as new signings haven't happened & look unlikely to do so without other players moving on. Llera remains a rock at the centre of their defence & Antonio's form has certainly seen an upswing with his pace a constant menace even though his final product remains inconsistent. They may have just run into some flaky teams recently (Bolton are chief culprits in this category) & we can't leave Charlton alone at odds bigger than evens, take odds of 11/8 for a home win.

Selections:
Stoke City vs Manchester City to draw at 11/4 (Various)
Charlton Athletic to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 11/8 (BetVictor)

Baggies to Bounce Back against Pallid Potters

Most of the League One & Two sides are in cup action this weekend so our regular bread winners have had to be deserted but we think there is money to be made by backing a couple of decent teams to bounce back against some low scoring dodgy travellers in the Premier League & Championship. We're looking for yet another profitable weekend, last time was middling but still profitable thanks to 3 out of 5 selections obliging including the 9/4 draw in the Charlton v Huddersfield game.

West Bromwich Albion vs Stoke City

In the Premier League, West Bromwich Albion entertain Stoke City at the Hawthorns, West Brom sit in 4th place with eight victories so far whilst Stoke are just above mid-table in 9th spot. The sides come into this one on the back of conflicting results with Stoke battling back impressively to win 2-1 after falling behind against out of form Newcastle & West Brom conceding 3 goals in the first half to lose 3-1 to Swansea.

 (Steve Clarke has already had plenty of reason to celebrate in his new job as manager)

Steve Clarke has made a seamless transition from a right hand man to manager & has earnt plenty of plaudits for their impressive start. Clarke has learnt his trade under a number of different managers, most notably Jose Mourinho, & has always had the reputation of making sure the sides he's involved with are well organised & defensively solid. When you add into the mix three strikers in Shane Long, Peter Odemwingie & loanee Romelu Lukaku who have 14 league goals between them then we can see why they have started so well - of course the outstanding Roy Hodgson's role in setting West Brom on the right path should also not be underestimated. West Brom are particularly strong at home where they have won six out of seven league games with their only failure coming with a defeat against defending champions Manchester City.

Stoke are now a established Premier league side these days but have always struggled on the road & so far this season it's been no different. They have failed to win any of their seven away league fixtures with four draws & three defeats against Manchester United, Chelsea & Norwich City. All season they have struggled to find the back of the net with only 13 goals at less than a goal a game & leading scorer Peter Crouch hasn't found the net since September.

Although the Baggies lost to Swansea on Wednesday they face very a very different style of opponent here & if they can get their midfielders on the ball they will fancy themselves to score & with Stoke so goal shy they'll fancy themselves to bag all 3 points - back West Brom to continue their excellent home form at the general price of 21/20.

Leicester City vs Derby County

Leicester disappointed on Tuesday night with a loss away to Leeds but Elland Road can be an intimidating stadium & we like the look of them to make the most of their home advantage against a merely average Derby side this Saturday.

(Kasper Schmeichel & the rest of the Leicester defence can keep Derby at bay)

Derby got themselves a good result with a 1-1 draw at home to high flying Cardiff in midweek but were maybe fortunate to run into the Bluebirds when they were suffering from several injuries & they were 1-0 down until Craig Noone got himself red carded after fouling twice in quick succession. Derby do have an excellent youngster in Will Hughes & the 17 year old midfielder is reportedly catching the eye of big clubs in this country & around Europe but his best form has tended to be at home much like the rest of his teammates. Derby have lost 5 of their 9 away games & only Ipswich have scored less goals on the road & that doesn't bode well coming up against Leicester's excellent defence that have only conceded 17 in 19 games. Theo Robinson is certainly proving a threat up front for the Rams but he very much needs service to thrive & he might not get that in away games.

Leicester really felt the absence of their star striker David Nugent against Leeds but still offered a threat with the improving Martyn Waghorn hitting the bar - ironically Nugent is out with a neck injury & Waghorn himself has no neck at all but it doesn't stop him from being a skillful player. The Foxes are hopeful of getting Nugent back & fit for this one but even without him they'll feel confident of getting all 3 points with their strong defence continuing to impress, Kasper Schmeichel has always been a decent enough young keeper but he eventually seems to be really making his mark & thriving in the Midlands. With 7 wins from 9 home games we think Leicester should be shorter than 7/10 to beat Derby who sit 19th in the away form league table.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to beat Stoke City at 21/20 (various)
Leicester City to beat Derby County at 7/10 (BlueSquare, 888Sport & William Hill)

Monday Night Football - Clean Sheet Kings to keep it close

We've been reading recently about the general trend around European football, including the Premier League, for more goals but there are a few sides in England this year that are bucking that trend & we see a couple of them meet up tonight at Upton Park as West Ham United host Stoke City in what could be an old fashioned kickfest.

West Ham United vs Stoke City

(Midfielders Mark Noble & Kevin Nolan are key to West Ham)

It should be noted that these are the two teams with the joint best clean sheet record in the league this year with 5 shutouts each in their 11 games & that's through a combination of tough physical defences & because of their style of football where the ball doesn't tend to be on the ground as much or similarly in play thanks to booming clearances & plenty of time taken over set pieces. Neither side like to lose either with just three losses a piece & Stoke's have come against Chelsea, Man Utd & in-form Norwich so there's no shame there although their lack of goal threat means they have to settle for draws too often & have only one win on the board. Peter Crouch looks like Stoke's only real goal threat with little support from midfield & even though we like Jon Walters build up play he never looks like getting 10+ league goals a year.

West Ham certainly do have a goal threat from midfield & it comes chiefly from their vocal captain Kevin Nolan who ranks right up there as one of the most effective & consistent English players for the last decade & we can understand his frustration with never being picked for the national side. Mark Noble is another of their midfielders with an eye for goal & he has also recently been hinting he'd like an England call up, if Noble & Nolan really want to push their claims they need to be the ones to make a difference in tight games like this especially as the West Ham forwards have failed to fire so far. Andy Carroll hasn't managed a goal yet even though he's at just about the best club possible to exploit his attributes although he's had an injury & to be fair his all round play has definitely been beneficial especially his partnership with good mate Kevin Nolan.

(Ryan Shawcross recently got a deserved England cap but he's not everyone's cup of tea...)

When you take a look at the players each team has in defence they really are just physical powerhouses, Ryan Shawcross had 180 more clearances in the league than any other player last year & James Collins ranked 2nd in the same category for Villa last year & has now come into the Hammers side with great success. This isn't likely to be a pretty game by any means but West Ham have a great incentive to go all out for the win here as they have a tough run of fixtures after this up to Christmas so they need to get points on the board, they should have faith in their defence to cope with Peter Crouch much more easily than some teams & we like their chances. Big Sam will send his team out for the win & West Ham are just about value at a price of Evens with 5 victories from 11 already & taking them to win 2-0 at 19/2 also looks worth a little play as we think they'll keep the low scoring Potters at bay.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Stoke City at Evens (General)
West Ham to win 2-0 at 19/2 (BetVictor)

Goals? You never said anything about scoring goals!?

We're still smarting after going so close to all 3 results coming in for us last weekend with Brentford the let downs after scoring all 4 goals in their game but unfortunately with two at the wrong end! It's been a decent footy season for us & we'll attempt to keep it going with a goals market double in the Premier League plus a game in the 1st round of the FA Cup.

Norwich City vs Stoke City & Sunderland vs Aston Villa

This Saturday sees maybe the two least inspiring matches of the season so far only rivalled when these 4 teams faced off last week in a slightly different order of play where Villa drew 1-1 with Norwich & Stoke drew 0-0 with Sunderland. The four teams have each managed just one win each & fill 4 of the bottom 5 places for goals scored in the league this season, whilst Sunderland & Stoke are 2nd & joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded. All of this means it's been pretty miserable for fans of all 4 teams this year & could end up having long term consequences in terms of reduced attendances if they can't find some attacking tendencies quickly.

(Crouch & Walters are Stoke's likeliest scorers)

We'll start off with the Norwich v Stoke game & this is one that we feel is going to be a real struggle for the Canaries as their one method of scoring that has proven at least semi-effective is getting the ball up to Grant Holt & he has proven he can bully plenty of classy Premier League defenders. Holt however won't find it as easy to get success against the Stoke defenders who are the most physical in the league (even without the broken-legged Marc Wilson) & can easily deal with most crosses & set piece situations & are led by their dominant captain Ryan Shawcross. We're also fans (as are Chelsea) of Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic & think they can keep Norwich at bay here, Stoke don't score too many themselves (only scored 3 or more goals once in the League since May 2011) so this looks an ideal candidate of a game to go under 2.5 goals & odds of 4/5 about it are excellent value. Stoke have played probably the 4 best sides in the country already (Chelsea, Arsenal & both Manchester sides) losing only twice & they'll be looking to improve now they have an easier set of fixtures & we'll take them to sneak this one 1-0 at a generous price of 8/1.

(Colback, Cuellar & O'Shea - 3 of Sunderland's impenetrable back 4)

Sunderland have only lost once this year (to Man City) & have been imperious defensively with veterans John O'Shea & Carlos Cuellar arguably the best centre back pairing in the league right now, of course it helps that they are guarded by the midfield terrier that is Lee Cattermole. Sunderland's real problem has been the lack of chances they've created & Stephane Sessegnon's form has been a particular problem as he was so important last season, James McClean is off the boil a bit too & Seb Larsson hasn't even been getting his set pieces right. We'd also argue that although Craig Gardner has done well at right back this year we much prefer him higher up the pitch  playing neat one-twos to find a way through opposing defenses. If Sunderland do create chances they know that Steven Fletcher can put them away & they may find they can push higher up the pitch in this game as Villa offer so little at the top end of the pitch themselves.

Villa have only scored twice & gained one point from their 5 away games so far, losing to nil against West Ham, Spurs & Fulham, they may have scored 3 in midweek but that was against League One Swindon & we think they'll fail to find the back of the net here. Both sides  played pretty much full strength sides in their League Cup matches meaning there could be somewhat tired legs here but Sunderland will be desperate to win for their fans after falling to local rivals Middlesbrough & can take this with a narrow 1-0 victory (6-1) & this can be doubled up with the previous game to go under 2.5 goals too (8/11).

Forest Green Rovers vs Port Vale

This weekend sees the 1st round of the FA Cup with Forest Green Rovers entertaining Port Vale at The New Lawn. Forest Green are sitting in 6th spot in the Conference Premier whilst Port Vale are 28 places higher in 2nd position in League Two.

(Striker Tom Pope has been in fantastic goalscoring form with 15 goals already this season)

 

Port Vale have won nine matches & collected 30 points so far this season & have been in fine form in the last couple of months. They did suffer a setback last weekend with a 2-0 defeat to Northampton Town but they did play 70 minutes with ten men after John McCombe dismissal. Before this game they won four & draw two of their last six league games & their record on the road this season is particularly good with five victories & hitting the net on average nearly two goals per game.

Forest Green, the longest serving members of the Conference Premier, made a fantastic start to the season but have tailed off in recent weeks. They have lost four league games in a row & two of these have been at home against Tamworth & Luton Town. Confidence would have undoubtedly taken a hit & Port Vale will be too strong for them at the general price of 6/5.

Selections: Under 2.5 goals double - Norwich v Stoke at 4/5 & Sunderland v Aston Villa at 8/11 (Stan James)
Stoke to beat Norwich 1-0 at 8/1 (Stan James)
Sunderland to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at 6/1 (Various)
Port Vale to beat Forest Green Rovers at 6/5 (Various)