Yaya can inspire City to South Coast win

Weekend football again after the midweek friendlies  & these are fixtures that make for a far better betting proposition than players running around halfheartedly & mass changes at half time. We're certainly hoping for better results than when watching the Ravens win the Super Bowl, or more accurately the 49ers lose it after a hopeless start to the game!

Southampton vs Manchester City

Southampton have been a much talked about team over the past few weeks after replacing Nigel Adkins with Spaniard Mauricio Pochettino & then putting up an impressive performance, although ultimately losing, when facing Man Utd at Old Trafford, they've got a tough game at St Mary's in the day's late kickoff when they take on Manchester City.

(City have got rid of Balotelli & have Yaya Toure back - winners on all fronts)

Both teams have been hard to beat recently with Southampton losing only 2 of their last 9 league games & City just twice all season but both have dropped points to drawn games with 6 from the Saints in that 9 game sequence & City have lost crucial momentum & ground on United with draws against QPR & Liverpool in their last two. There's good reason to think that City can get back to winning ways here though as Mancini can't afford to be cautious with wins all that matter now that they're 9 points behind the leaders & maybe their very best player, Yaya Toure, returning after Africa Cup of Nations duties.

Yaya is one of the finest midfielders in the world & can impose his will on nearly any side at will & could be coming up against Morgan Schneiderlin in this one in what looks a mismatch in favour of City man. Southampton have a few injury worries to key players with Adam Lallana a doubt & defenders Luke Shaw, Jose Fonte & Nathanial Clyne joining him. Record signing Gaston Ramires is another who may not play & with that list of injury worries it's looking like a bad time to face the current champions.

Pochettino hasn't yet eked out a win whilst in charge of Southampton & although they've looked far more resilient than when leaking goals at the start of the year we can't see anything other than a win for Manchester City & odds of 4/6 with BetVictor look fair. City have too many weapons & are able to break teams down through skill through the likes of David Silva & Sergio Aguero or through physical dominance from players like Yaya Toure & the underappreciated Edin Dzeko & they'll pounce on any defensive weakness.

Norwich City vs Fulham

Norwich against Fulham may not be the most glamorous tie of the season but this is an intriguing one & important for both as points have been thin on the ground for the two teams sat level in the table on 28 points. Norwich boss Chris Hughton also served 3 years as Jol's assistant whilst at Tottenham & the Canaries will be keen to gain revenge for a 5-0 drubbing on the opening day from their London opponents.

(Martin Jol is seeking a rare away Fulham win)

Norwich haven't won in their past 8 league games & haven't managed to score in 4 of those, with none of their players having managed more than 5 goals in all competitions & Grant Holt certainly hasn't looked so impressive as last year after failing to engineer a move away from Carrow Road. They're reasonable at the back but miss John Ruddy in goal (long term injury) & have injury concerns about usual starters Alex Tettey & Anthony Pilkington.

Fulham rarely pick up wins in away games & they've stuttered after a great start to the season when they won 5 of 9 but the signs have been a bit better in recent games with their only losses in their last 5 league games coming against the Manchester sides whilst gaining wins away at West Brom &  at home against West Ham. They showed a lot of resistance last week against Man Utd, going down 1-0 to a late Rooney goal & they may have star player Dimitar Berbatov back for this after injury. Jol will also have found a bit of time to work with his January loan signings, of whom Urby Emanuelson & Emmanuel Frimpong look like they could be useful. Frimpong will certainly add a much needed bit of bite to the Fulham midfield & that could prove the area that they can better their hosts in this one.

Backing Fulham on the road is usually a sure way to the poor house but there have been encouraging signs in recent games whilst Norwich's form has slumped & they look bereft of attacking ideas, take the Cottagers to win at nice odds of 23/10. Checking the team sheets is advised in this game as Fulham did have more players on international duty, we jut think they've got a bit more going for them than Norwich who seem to be lacking in quality & confidence.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Southampton at 4/6 (BetVictor)
Fulham to beat Norwich at 23/10 (BetVictor)

Quality Queens Park defence can keep Canaries Quiet

Hmmm, not a good few days for us on the football front with our last three selections all looking good before succumbing to time with Stoke not holding out for the draw against Man City on Staurday  then blowing their 2 goal lead against a Roger Espinoza inspired Wigan on Wednesday to add to Charlton running out of steam last weekend too. This weekend's games do however seem to have thrown up some odd prices that can be backed to give us & you an edge over the bookies & you'll see these bets below.

We use oddschecker.com to check our prices & would advise anyone else to if they're serious about finding the very best prices available - I only mention it because it also has a function showing what thee most backed bets in each market are  I was deeply surprised to see the pie chart indicating so many punters were going for the opposite of our selection in the QPR game - it seems punters love goals regardless of what the form book says!

Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City

QPR still prop up the rest of the league but they've become undeniably tough to beat under Harry Redknapp with a 1-0 win against Chelsea & 3 draws (2 against top sides) in their last 4 league games, they take on out-of-form Norwich in the early Saturday kickoff in what could be a tense affair.

(Julio Cesar is staking his claim to be the best Brazilian in the Premier League)

The bottom has somewhat fallen out of Norwich's season after they overcame a poor start to gain 6 wins & 4 draws in an undefeated 10 games from October to mid December, they've now not won in 7 & benefited from Spurs' lack of firepower in their draw with the London side on Wednesday night. Apart from a few isolated high scoring games the Canaries have been largely solid at the back & it's instead their lack of goals that has been a problem with just 25 in their 24 games & they've signed Leeds' Luciano Becchio in an effort to remedy that - we're unconvinced the Argentinian is Premier League class though.

QPR's goalscoring has become virtually non-existent with 3 in their last 7 league games & 18 for the season, injuries & indifferent form have been the reason & even though Loic Remy could prove a good signing Harry Redknapp won't sacrifice his new found defensive solidity for all-out attack as evidennced by the expensive signing of the giant Chris Samba who makes a welcome return to English football. Adel Taarabt remains the key player for the Hoops with his excellent passing range & silky skills, Chris Hughton may respond to his threat by getting defensive midfielder Alex Tettey to 'do a number' on the Moroccan.

The market to concentrate on in this game looks to be the Over/Under 2.5 goals one & with both teams already having had 13 games go under this season, including their previous meeting, the bet has to be under 2.5 goals at just a shade of odds on at 10/11. Julio Cesar has been outstanding in goal for QPR recently showing why he's gained so many caps for Brazil & he can gain another clean sheet. A small wager on QPR to nick this one 1-0 at 15/2 with BetVictor also looks worth a look.


Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United

Down in League One sees top of the table Tranmere Rovers host Carlisle United at Prenton Park. Tranmere are the team to catch currently whilst Carlisle have been struggling in recent months & have fallen to 17th place.

(Andy Robinson loves it when they rub his head)

Tranmere have won five of their last six league games after a poor spell in November & most of December, their latest victory was an impressive 2-1 away victory at 4th place Brentford & they were robbed of a potential firecracker against Swindon Town in midweek due to a frozen pitch. In these five victories they have kept three clean sheets & they are unbeaten in their last five home league games & won their last three. Rovers have however lost top scorer Jake Cassidy who ended his loan period in early January & returned to parent club Wolves, it hasn't been too much of an impediment so far but the pressure is on Andy Robinson, this could be a good game for him against the league's joint highest conceders.

Carlisle are inconsistent & have struggled all season to put a string of decent results together. They have conceded one goal or more in every single away match & if this trend continues then will find it an uphill task against a measly Tranmere defence. They have also lost their last three away games to Shrewsbury Town, Crewe Alexandra & Swindon.

Tranmere will be too strong for an average Carlisle side & can cement their pole position at the best price of 10/11 with BetVictor.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in QPR vs Norwich game at 10/11 (William Hill & Coral)
QPR to beat Norwich 1-0 at 15/2 (BetVictor)
Tranmere Rovers to beat Carlisle United at 10/11 (BetVictor)

Goals? You never said anything about scoring goals!?

We're still smarting after going so close to all 3 results coming in for us last weekend with Brentford the let downs after scoring all 4 goals in their game but unfortunately with two at the wrong end! It's been a decent footy season for us & we'll attempt to keep it going with a goals market double in the Premier League plus a game in the 1st round of the FA Cup.

Norwich City vs Stoke City & Sunderland vs Aston Villa

This Saturday sees maybe the two least inspiring matches of the season so far only rivalled when these 4 teams faced off last week in a slightly different order of play where Villa drew 1-1 with Norwich & Stoke drew 0-0 with Sunderland. The four teams have each managed just one win each & fill 4 of the bottom 5 places for goals scored in the league this season, whilst Sunderland & Stoke are 2nd & joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded. All of this means it's been pretty miserable for fans of all 4 teams this year & could end up having long term consequences in terms of reduced attendances if they can't find some attacking tendencies quickly.

(Crouch & Walters are Stoke's likeliest scorers)

We'll start off with the Norwich v Stoke game & this is one that we feel is going to be a real struggle for the Canaries as their one method of scoring that has proven at least semi-effective is getting the ball up to Grant Holt & he has proven he can bully plenty of classy Premier League defenders. Holt however won't find it as easy to get success against the Stoke defenders who are the most physical in the league (even without the broken-legged Marc Wilson) & can easily deal with most crosses & set piece situations & are led by their dominant captain Ryan Shawcross. We're also fans (as are Chelsea) of Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic & think they can keep Norwich at bay here, Stoke don't score too many themselves (only scored 3 or more goals once in the League since May 2011) so this looks an ideal candidate of a game to go under 2.5 goals & odds of 4/5 about it are excellent value. Stoke have played probably the 4 best sides in the country already (Chelsea, Arsenal & both Manchester sides) losing only twice & they'll be looking to improve now they have an easier set of fixtures & we'll take them to sneak this one 1-0 at a generous price of 8/1.

(Colback, Cuellar & O'Shea - 3 of Sunderland's impenetrable back 4)

Sunderland have only lost once this year (to Man City) & have been imperious defensively with veterans John O'Shea & Carlos Cuellar arguably the best centre back pairing in the league right now, of course it helps that they are guarded by the midfield terrier that is Lee Cattermole. Sunderland's real problem has been the lack of chances they've created & Stephane Sessegnon's form has been a particular problem as he was so important last season, James McClean is off the boil a bit too & Seb Larsson hasn't even been getting his set pieces right. We'd also argue that although Craig Gardner has done well at right back this year we much prefer him higher up the pitch  playing neat one-twos to find a way through opposing defenses. If Sunderland do create chances they know that Steven Fletcher can put them away & they may find they can push higher up the pitch in this game as Villa offer so little at the top end of the pitch themselves.

Villa have only scored twice & gained one point from their 5 away games so far, losing to nil against West Ham, Spurs & Fulham, they may have scored 3 in midweek but that was against League One Swindon & we think they'll fail to find the back of the net here. Both sides  played pretty much full strength sides in their League Cup matches meaning there could be somewhat tired legs here but Sunderland will be desperate to win for their fans after falling to local rivals Middlesbrough & can take this with a narrow 1-0 victory (6-1) & this can be doubled up with the previous game to go under 2.5 goals too (8/11).

Forest Green Rovers vs Port Vale

This weekend sees the 1st round of the FA Cup with Forest Green Rovers entertaining Port Vale at The New Lawn. Forest Green are sitting in 6th spot in the Conference Premier whilst Port Vale are 28 places higher in 2nd position in League Two.

(Striker Tom Pope has been in fantastic goalscoring form with 15 goals already this season)

 

Port Vale have won nine matches & collected 30 points so far this season & have been in fine form in the last couple of months. They did suffer a setback last weekend with a 2-0 defeat to Northampton Town but they did play 70 minutes with ten men after John McCombe dismissal. Before this game they won four & draw two of their last six league games & their record on the road this season is particularly good with five victories & hitting the net on average nearly two goals per game.

Forest Green, the longest serving members of the Conference Premier, made a fantastic start to the season but have tailed off in recent weeks. They have lost four league games in a row & two of these have been at home against Tamworth & Luton Town. Confidence would have undoubtedly taken a hit & Port Vale will be too strong for them at the general price of 6/5.

Selections: Under 2.5 goals double - Norwich v Stoke at 4/5 & Sunderland v Aston Villa at 8/11 (Stan James)
Stoke to beat Norwich 1-0 at 8/1 (Stan James)
Sunderland to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at 6/1 (Various)
Port Vale to beat Forest Green Rovers at 6/5 (Various)

Stout Villa defence can Cage Canaries

They say things come in threes so we'll try to get 3 out of 3 again this Saturday as we again look at the best football bets there are to be had throughout the English league system. We know that your average punter likes to have a bet on the big Premier League games but the highly competitive nature of those games & high profile in general means they are often a betting minefield where betting firms don't offer too much in the way of value at all, that's why we like to look at the lower leagues where many wouldn't even think of having a bet often & there is certainly value to be had!

Aston Villa vs Norwich City

You wouldn't be marking this game down as a glamour fixture for the Premier League but it does have an interesting story as Villa manager Paul Lambert faces off against his former employers who he left rather acrimonious circumstances in the summer. Neither side are going too well with just one win each although Norwich's came last weekend with a shock win at Carrow Road over Arsenal & that has helped put them onto 6 points compared to Villa's 5, this is a game both sides will feel they can win.

(Ron Vlaar looks & plays the part of dominant central defender for Villa)

The two teams are the joint lowest scorers in the league, along with Sunderland who've played one less, with 6 goals apiece & that lack of cutting edge is meaning relegation is a perilously realistic outcome this year. Villa signed Christian Benteke to help out in the goals department but he's managed just one (in their only win v Swansea) & Darren Bent has looked lost at times with the paucity of quality service that he needs to thrive. Norwich's problem going forward is their utter predictability & total reliance on Grant Holt to score their goals but the positive is that regardless of the fact teams know what his game is, it is still difficult to contain him & he's scored in their last three games.

On the positive side for both sides are they have decent keepers (Guzan & Ruddy) & Villa have a pretty sturdy defence with Ron Vlaar having come into the centre of defence & impressed as he's taken up the captaincy whilst Stilian Petrov has been out with serious illness. Matt Lowton has made the step from League One to the top flight look relatively easy & the Villa back four have managed to keep them in games longer than maybe they've deserved. All in all this looks like being a tight little affair & the bookies look to have got it wrong by making over, rather than under, 2.5 goals the shorter odds, back the unders in this game between sides who've combined to score just 12 goals in 16 league games.

Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City

Down in League Two, a local derby takes place as Cheltenham Town entertain Exeter City at Whaddon Road. Cheltenham are 4th currently whilst Exeter have faltered in recent weeks & have dropped down to mid-table.

(Kaid Mohamed fires one in for Cheltenham)

Cheltenham are in fine form & have won five or their last eight league games & only suffered one defeat - away at 5th place Bradford City. Their latest victory was Tuesday night as they came from behind to beat Plymouth Argyle 2-1 thanks to a winner from Welsh substitute Kaid Mohamed, that was his second in three games & he is closing on leading scorer Shaun Harrad who has five league goals so far. Cheltenham have produced their best football in front of their home faithful with 4 wins & a draw in 7 games & have won 3 of their last 4 scoring two in each match.

Exeter City started made a flying start to life in League Two with 5 victories in their first 7 league games but since then their form has been turned on its head with five defeats & only one win at bottom side Barnet in their last seven. A sole strike from evergreen forward Jamie Cureton at Dagenham & Redbridge the other night at least ended a run of three games without a goal.

Cheltenham will be expected to take advantage of a confidence hit Exeter side & continue their chase of league leaders Gillingham at the best price of 11/10 with Coral.

Brentford vs Hartlepool United

League One sees Brentford host managerless Hartlepool United at Griffin Park. Brentford are in 9th place after a solid start to the season whilst Hartlepool are rooted to the foot of the table.

(Brentford's star youngster Harry Forrester will fancy his chance of scoring against Hartlepool)

Brentford have been a Jekyll & Hyde side so far this season in terms of their home & away form - on the road they are winless with only five points from a possible 21 but at home they have been great with five wins out of seven matches. Clayton Donaldson & midfielder Harry Forrester have been in fine goalscorer form for the Bees with 10 goals between them & they will be relishing the prospect of facing a leaky Hartlepool defence.

Hartlepool's manager Neale Cooper resigned after a 2-1 defeat against Bury on Tuesday as they raked up their ninth league defeat of the season, there aren't really any positives for Hartlepool currently & already they face a hard slog to competitive this season. Their away form is awful with only one point from seven matches & they have been inflicted to a number of heavy defeats leading to a record of on average 2.29 goals shipped per game.

Brentford's terrific home form should continue at the expense of sorry Hartlepool team & they should be first on all punters accumulator lists this weekend at reasonable odds of 4/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Norwich City game at 11/10 (Various)
Cheltenham Town to beat Exeter City at 11/10 (Coral)
Brentford to beat Hartlepool United at 4/6 (Coral)

Toon Army versus Canaries? It hardly seems fair!

We're back to weekend football action after a rather packed midweek with lower league matches & plenty of top flight sides in European action, we've picked out a couple of bets as we look for quality to prevail over a couple of sides that could be in for long & unhappy seasons. You can keep up to date with all of our latest blog posts by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by checking us out on there or by clicking the Follow button above.

Newcastle United vs Norwich City

(Demba Ba's scored goals & goals & goals when played through the middle - maybe he has a point?)

Backing sides after they've competed in Europe in midweek is usually a sure way to the poor house but at only just a shade of odds on Newcastle United look value to beat Norwich who've been pretty disappointing so far this season. Chris Hughton returns to Newcastle without a win under his belt in the league with his East Anglian side, they took a beating on the opening day from Fulham & have since played out three rather dour draws against Spurs, QPR & West Ham. The big positive here is that Alan Pardew showed what his priorities are by fielding a second string side in Portugal in the Europa League meaning he clearly sees this as a game he's desperate to win.

We felt that Norwich really over performed last year as they don't have an awful lot of quality throughout the side & tend to only have one tactic which is getting it out wide & whipping in crosses to star striker Grant Holt. They didn't lose any players in the summer but that was because no other club wanted them & the transfer activity they undertook themselves didn't impress us with Robert Snodgrass from Leeds maybe their biggest piece of business.

Newcastle burst into a bit of life against Everton on Monday playing some good football in periods, they were certainly fortunate to get a point thanks to some pretty awful work by the linesman on two occasions, but overall they showed more than enough to be strong favourites to win at home here. Newcastle can gain their first win since the opening day at odds of 4/5 - they are as short as 8/15 elsewhere so punters should get their bets on early before this ace value disappears. Striker Demba Ba & his agent have been making plenty of noise in the media but Newcastle can cope with that on the pitch & don't let that put you off a golden wager.

Bury vs MK Dons

(Ryan Lowe returns to his old Gigg Lane haunting ground)

League One sees bottom of the table Bury entertain MK Dons at the Gigg Lane Stadium, the home side have made an awful start with four defeats & no victories in their seven league matches. Last season the Dons gained 80 points to Bury's 56, so averaging over 1/2 a point more per game & the gap in quality between the two sides looks to be even bigger this year as Bury just haven't been able to get a thing going so far. It looked like a battling draw away to big boys Sheffield United might be able to kickstart Bury's season but they then went & got thumped 3-0 by Tranmere on the same weekend that MK Dons put in a convincing display, controlling possession when beating highflyers Yeovil 1-0.

The only worry with MK Dons in this one is that they haven't really hit the goalscoring trail yet with 7 in their 7 league games & only the youngster Daniel Powell having hit the back of the net twice - he only scored 6 league goals in 41 appearances last year so they can't be relying on him too heavily. Luckily they are up against a porous Bury defence that have already conceded 12 this season & let 79 goals in last year & they've only scored 5 themselves this time around. Bury just don't have a proven goalscorer & they look in serious danger of relegation this year, they could come face to face with ex-favourite Ryan Lowe as he's now with the Dons. At odds of Evens MK Dons should be backed to heap more misery upon the Shakers.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Norwich City at 4/5 (Bet365 & Bodog)
MK Dons to beat Bury at Evens (General)