Solid Seagulls can heap more misery on Langusihing Lions

We're avoiding the Premier League this weekend with value seemingly a little thin on the ground from the prices we can see although there are various money back offers on Sunday's derby games fro those wanting a punt so keep your eyes & ear open for them. We're instead looking to get a double up in the Championship where the season is already into it's 5th round of games.

The NFL season starts next week too & we should have a preview (maybe split in two parts for the AFC & NFC) up early in the week - it's a great competition to bet on with an edge to be found on plenty of markets & a great sport with a real cerebral side to add to the physicality. Be sure to check back for bets right through the season to add to the football bets already underway.

Brighton vs Millwall

In our first game we see Brighton host Millwall in a game that looks like it could be a good opportunity for the home side to make it three league wins in a row as their silky style of football could undo their less cultured opponents.

(Leonardo Ulloa is on fire up front for Brighton & could strike again here)

Brighton started off their season a little sluggishly with defeats away at Leeds & then more disappointingly at home to Derby but they scored in both games through their star Argentinian striker Leonardo Ulloa & they've since beaten Birmingham & Burnley to get their campaign rolling. After last season's histrionics at the end with their acrimonious split with manager Gus Poyet, plus their playoff loss to chief rivals Crystal Palace, it was understandable that they may have suffered a slight hangover (they also lost to Newport in the League Cup) but they now seem to got going under new coach Oscar Garcia. It's fortunate for the Seagulls that Ulloa is playing so well & scoring so frequently because due to a smallish selection of players & injuries he looks likely to be their only fit out & out striker here as Ashley Barnes looks doubtful for selection.

Brighton play some nice football right throughout their side with plenty of Latin influence meaning they pass the ball well, certainly amongst the best in the Championship, & build from the back - usually they have the fullbacks Inigo Calderon & Bruno as key cogs in the plan but Bruno's out with a hamstring injury meaning it won't be quite so straightforward. We like the permanent signing of Matthew Upson in central defence & he's added a real solidity at the back in his time at the club plus Tomasz Kusczak has a great deal of quality in goal & is proving his worth after spending too much time as a back up in Manchester. They've a bit of quality in midfield, both in the centre & out wide & Kemy Augustien looks like a potentially great signing from Swansea - they should be able to get service into Ulloa who's good on the ground & in the air.

(Shaun Derry on loan - as far as Millwall's resources stretch...)

Millwall have unfortunately started this season, much as they finished the last, in dire form meaning they are now on a streak of 7 losses & 2 draws in 9 games & they've only scored 3 goals over the period. That lack of forward threat doesn't look likely to change with Steve Morison out with a hernia op & they've been failing to fire ever since Chris Wood finished his loan spell after Christmas. They always have a bit of fight in them but the quality looks to be lacking & with no money to go around they've not been able to make significant improvements in the off-season, Shaun Derry's on loan from QPR but he's 35 & has always relied on work rate rather than class to succeed. This looks to be a long season for the Lions & we don't see any outcome other than relegation, they could be in a whole heap of trouble even by the end of September.

Brighton only lost 3 times at home in the league in 2012-13 & with Millwall failing to score in 3 of their first 4 games this year they'll feel confident that they can keep the visitors at bay whilst netting at the other end, only SkyBet go as big as 4/5 for the Brighton win & that should be taken.

Doncaster Rovers vs Bournemouth

This selection seems a rather simple one but we can't understand why BetVictor have gone a standout Evens about there being over 2.5 goals in the Doncaster vs Bournemouth game in the Championship.

(Lewis Grabban is finding the environs of the Championship to his liking)

Bournemouth have tended to be fairly open so far & seem to need to learn to defend at a higher level after conceding 5 to Watford then 6 to Huddersfield so far on their travels & Doncaster have scored in all 3 of their games so far including twice away to fancied Wigan & there were 4 goals in their League Cup game here with Leeds. There was only the one goal here when they met last season with Bournemouth taking the win but their other game saw the over 2.5 land & both teams have strikers who are in the goals with Lewis Grabban with 4 for Bournemouth & Doncaster's new signing Theo Robinson bagging in consecutive games against Blackburn & Wigan. We thought the price would be around the 4/6 mark so think this looks a great value bet & it's unlikely you'll see these sort of odds too often for a game that seems to promise goals.

Selections:
Brighton to beat Millwall at 4/5 (SkyBet)
Doncaster vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals at Evens (Bet365 & BetVictor)

Villa Upstarts to go all ASBO over Liverpool

Another weekend of football action coming up & with 5 out of 6 winning bets, including 3 on the Premier League last week, we're hoping to continue in a similar vein with selections from the top division down to the lower leagues. As always if you find us here but don't follow us on Twitter please do; you can find us @LikeBuyingMoney & we'll hopefully keep you entertained as well as informed!

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

This is maybe the weekend's most interesting Premier League game (at least until Man United vs Chelsea on Monday night) as we get to take a look at a seemingly much improved Aston Villa side who take on the still Suarez-less Liverpool who for all their good play last week still only beat Stoke thanks to a late penalty save.

(Gabriel Agbonlahor finished 2012-13 in fine form & has continued so far this season)

Paul Lambert seems to be getting the best out of his squad of young players at the moment, particularly the forwards Christian Benteke & Gabby Agbonlahor with the lifelong Villa man looking unplayable at times with his pace & power in their opening two games against Arsenal & Chelsea. The ever-promising Fabian Delph may also be ready to deliver this season judged on the start he's made & whilst there remain issues with regards to Villa's sturdiness they look like they have the potential to give any side a game of it at the moment.

Liverpool finished off last season in pretty hot form (7 wins, 4 draws & a loss in their final 12) but by then it meant little in terms of what they could achieve in the league & it remains to be seen whether they can put that kind of form together over a whole season in order to claim a Champions League spot. Brendan Rodgers would surely be happy so long as they don't drop too many points whilst without their star striker Luis Suarez, out of action because of his ban & he's got his side a tricky contest here. Liverpool's main area of weakness for us is their lack of width in midfield with the fullbacks Johnson & Enriquez having to provide nearly all of that especially now that Stewart Downing has departed. Downing was considered a flop at the club but only Steven Gerrard started more games than him last season & it's not an ideal problem to have against Villa in particular.

(Brendan 'Envelope' Rodgers may find it hard to gain a victory away from the Anfield faithful)

Villa tended to struggle with balls into the box from out wide last year, including corners, so it's an ideal avenue to attack for most teams but with Weiman & Agbonlahor in advanced positions they should be able to defend from the front & keep Liverpool's fullbacks a bit quieter. Of course Liverpool are still dangerous with the classy operator Couinho & Gerrard, still capable of the spectacular, in midfield but Villa should be able to put men in against them & their defence will be happier to see the ball in front of them - they were relatively comfortable for long periods against a similar approach from Chelsea in the 2nd half on Wednesday.

Benteke is already on fire & his signing of a new contract looks the best bit of business done by a Premier League club this summer, with the young Belgian firing Villa have every chance of getting all 3 points here & with SportingBet & Paddy Power offering odds of 15/8 with the extra insurance of draw no bet this selection has to be advised. The fact Villa had to play in midweek is of course taken into account but at this stage of the season their players should be able to handle the quick turnaround & the extra football may come in handy whilst other teams try to shake off the pre-season rustiness.

Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town

In League One we see newly promoted Rotherham playing host to Shrewsbury in a clash that could be well be heavily influenced by the crucial home advantage. Shrewsbury ranked 20th in League One last season for points gained on the road whilst Rotherham ranked 4th at home in League Two & have started the season very respectably indeed.

(Rotherham's bruising centre forward Alex Revell could cause problems here)

Both teams gained their first wins of the season last week with Rotherham's 2-1 defeat of manager Steve Evans' former club Crawley particularly sweet for The Millers & that means Rotherham remain unbeaten thanks to a good draw with fancied Preston & two late goals away to Crewe salvaging a 3-3 draw & showing their battling qualities & good fitness levels to keep going to the end. Shrewsbury just don't seem to have many goals in their side, they didn't find the net in their first two games & their top scorer last season Marvin Morgan bagged just 7 goals with their number 9 Tom Bradshaw scoring his first goal in two years in their win against Swindon. We've already noted that Swindon appear to be a club in a bit of turmoil so we're not too impressed with that win & we reckon Graham Turner will be setting his team up not to lose rather than be proactive & aim for 3 points in this one.

Rotherham haven't looked bereft of ideas in attack so far this year & it's possible that their Irish midfielder Lee Frecklin could keep up his decent scoring record & the 6"3 forward Alex Revell poses a problem for most opposition defences & can link up well with either Nardiello or Agard. With the odds on offer at Evens with BetVictor (they're odds on everywhere else) Rotherham look worthy of a decent punt here to gain another victory in their push for successive promotions.

Selections:
Aston Villa to beat Liverpool draw no bet at 15/8 (Paddy Power & SportingBet)
Rotherham to beat Shrewsbury at Evens (BetVictor)

Monday Night Football - Magpies gonna sing the Sky Blues

A nice start to the Premier League season this weekend with plenty of new signings making their mark including our tip for top scorer honours Roberto Soldado, Simon Mignolet in goal for Liverpool & Ricky van Wolfswinkel for Norwich. It wasn't too bad for us on a betting front either with Rickie Lambert sealing a perfect 2 out of 2 with his last minute penalty to bring up the Southampton draw no bet winner to add to West Ham's impressive home victory. We're keen on both sides to have good seasons, Southampton have landed the striker they very much needed to help loosen Lambert's load with the capture of Roma's Pablo Osvaldo & West Ham can challenge for a top 7 spot if continuing their excellent home form from last year.

Here though we're going to take our first look at Monday Night Football for this season with the dysfunctional Newcastle United travelling to take on Manuel Pellegrini's new look Manchester City side in a game that is important for City to win if they're to lay down a marker of their intent.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

(New Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini - he's from Santiago...)

Manchester City certainly signalled their intent at the end of last season with the removal of Roberto Mancini, his backroom staff & the superbly talented but troublesome Carlos Tevez (with Balotelli also departing 5 months before). They've signed players who're at the age & performance levels that they should be able to contribute straight away & all seem to fit areas of the team where upgrades could've argued to have been needed - it's a strategy that other clubs seem to have failed at (United & Arsenal failing to sign anybody & Chelsea seeming to sign players in just one position - they now have 732 creative midfielders...). Spending just £14.9m on Jesus Navas looks an inspired bit of business in today's extortionate market as the winger has bags of pace & offers genuine width that City lacked previously. Navas will be able to link up with Negredo straight away (they both came from Sevilla) & he'll find the underrated Edin Dzeko a superb target to cross to also. Pellegrini has been tasked with getting his side to play more attractive football than they sometimes did under Mancini & also to get some success in Europe compared to their humiliations over the past two years & he'll view a home match against Newcastle as a good opportunity to begin.

 (Cheick Tiote could be given the runaround by Yaya Toure & co.)

City should have a more attacking philosophy than last year & although they may concede a few more (they were the meanest in the league in 2012-13 with 34 conceded) they won't mind that if they can turn a few draws into wins. We'd say it was more the strategy than the personnel which contributed to City's good defensive record as we're not keen on Hart in goal & although Kompany & Zabaleta are stars we're not so sure about Clichy at left back or whoever they pair Kompany with. Gareth Barry looks to have lost his place with loan deals mooted & that should mean a pacey, scary lineup in this game with the freakishly powerful Yaya Toure & the delightfully talented Fernandinho likely to prove too much for Newcastle to handle in the centre of the pitch. Cheick Tiote's form dipped considerably last year & James Perch lacks the necessary quality, whilst the promising youngster Gael Bigirimana would find this a big ask - they could struggle to both win possession & keep it here & that will strangle the supply to their key attacking players of Gutierrez, Ben Arfa & Cabaye.


Newcastle's off-field issues have been commented on plenty & the problem we see from the off is that they underperformed last season yet haven't been able to do much business in the transfer market to attempt to rectify that with just the minor signing of Oliver Kemen ( a French midfielder surprise, surprise) & the loan signing of Loic Remy coming in so far. They struggled on the road last year with just two league wins (against QPR & Aston Villa) & the lack of firepower without Demba Ba particularly hurt them meaning draws tended to be the aim. That does mean they're used to trying to frustrate opposing sides & they've two very good defenders in Collocini & Santon plus a decent keeper in Tim Krul. The problem is as noted above that they probably won't have too much protection in front of the back four & their other defenders lack a bit of real quality with, for our money, Steven Taylor being a particularly poor player to have played so many Premier League seasons. To be fair Mathieu Debuchy only joined last January & he may well be bedded in now & he's certainly a step up on Danny Simpson at right back.

(City's Stevan Jovetic (right) could be value at 7/4 to score anytime)

This could be a long night for Newcastle & we've a feeling that City will come bursting out of the blocks in this one & could take a grip of the game early on, with that in mind the 9/10 that BetVictor (fast becoming our favourite bookies for football betting) offer for a Man City half time/full time result is the suggested punt. City managed that in 9 of their 19 home games last season & although that suggests odds on isn't a fair price Newcastle are a weaker side than many & poor travellers. The other selection is contingent on him being in the starting lineup & that is Stevan Jovetic anytime goalscorer at 7/4 - the skillful Monetengrin knocked in 27 goals in 58 league games for Fiorentina over the past two years & that's pretty close to the magic 1 in 2 so the odds are very fair.

Selections:
Manchester City half time/full time at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Stevan Jovetic to score at anytime at 7/4 (General) if he starts 

Super Saints to get a Divine Start to the Season

Well... seeing as it's the start of the season in the top division in England we thought we'd better go for a Premier League double bill & have selections from games involving new England hero Rickie Lambert's Southampton & everyone's favourite manager 'Big Sam' & his West Ham side. So far we've started out with 2 of 3 outright selections hitting the mark with Peterborough in the first week of the season & Watford slamming home the pick with a 6-1 hammering, the loser was a 9/4 draw bet & we're hoping to improve this week! As always make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney - it's a good place to let us know your views & we'll put picks up there sometimes too.

West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton

Last year's overperformers West Brom host substantial summer spenders Southampton at the Hawthorns where Mauricio Pochettino's men will be hoping to add to their rather measly 3 away victories in comparison to 2012-13.

(Morgan Schneiderlin's exceptional 2012-13 season went unrecognised for the most part but people should sit up & take notice this time around)

Southampton have gone fairly big on the signings front in an attempt to avoid second season syndrome that sides promoted from the Championship that do well in their first season can tend to suffer; Victor Wanyama has come in from Celtic for £12.5m & should help shore up the midfield area in front of defence & Croatian centre back Dejan Lovren has come in for around £8.5m. We like the approach that Southampton have taken, bringing in relative youngsters (22 & 24 respectively) & going for quality rather than quantity in an attempt to strengthen in specific areas. We still reckon they may want to upgrade between the sticks at some point as Artur Boruc is slightly unpredictable & they don't appear to have much strength in depth behind new England cap winner Rickie Lambert with Jay Rodriguez not convincing on the goals front in the top flight so far.

(Ben Foster - England's No 1?)

The lack of strike options could cost Southampton over the season but we reckon Lambert will be bouncing after his debut against Scotland & could prove too hot for the West Brom defenders to handle - he'll already have had shooting practice against Ben Foster in midweek & will be ultra confident & that spells trouble for the Baggies who were pretty toothless, Lukaku aside, last year.

West Brom will have new signings in Nicolas Anelka & Matej Vydra still trying to bed in & goals could be at a premium for the first few weeks of the season & although they'll remain somewhat hard to beat with Yacob & Mulumbu physically dominating a lot of midfields those two probably don't have a great match-up in this one. Wanyama will be there for the Saints but will also be joined by the emerging Jack Cork & one of the stars of the entire league last season Morgan Schneiderlin whose stats last season were through the roof topping tackles & interceptions showing just what a good young player he is - there hasn't been much transfer talk around the young Frenchman but it wouldn't be surprising to see a big club come sniffing around before long. Adam Lallana & Gaston Ramirez should keep the West Brom fullbacks busy too & that should limit chances for Wes Brom. Just 3 away wins last season remains a concern & we'd rather not take them outright instead having the insurance offered at 13/10 with Ladbrokes on the draw no bet market we like the Saints chances of starting the season very brightly indeed.

West Ham United vs Cardiff City

West Ham bounced back up to the top flight last season & ended up just inside the top half with a very respectable 10th placed finish & they'll be looking to build on that this year whilst Cardiff's number one priority is to avoid slipping straight back to the Championship. This game is actually a repeat of their opening fixture from two seasons back in the Championship where Cardiff prevailed 1-0, West Ham however gained their revenge by beating the Bluebirds three times in a row after that including in the playoffs. We're keen on the home side again this time as they'll see this as an ideal opportunity to get the season off to a flyer.

(Andy Carroll & Kevin Nolan - maybe the Premier League's most effective partnership?)

West Ham can trouble pretty much any team in the Premier League because most sides just aren't used to dealing with many teams that play quite the way Sam Allardyce's sides do with Stoke maybe the only other side who've had a similar style in that they're quite happy to concede possession & instead make the most of when they do have the ball by getting it forward with pace. Allardyce clearly believes that he's got a squad capable of executing his plans because there haven't been too many major changes in the summer apart from clearing out a bit of expensive dead wood in Carlton Cole's departure & the recent signing of Stewart Downing. Romanian left back, the amusingly named, Razvan Rat has joined & the signing of Spanish keeper Adrian looks a smart move as Jussi Jaaskelainen's time as a top stopper looks to be coming to an end. Downing will join up with his ex-Liverpool team mate Andy Carroll who's been added as a permanent signing & although the big Geordie isn't everyone's cup of tea he fits just right at West Ham who always look to play to his strengths.

(Cardiff's Kim Bo-Kyung could take his game to another level in the top division)

Cardiff may be planning to play their new signing Andreas Cornelius in a similar type of role to that of Carroll because the young Danish international looks a bit of a beast at 6'4" & given the right service he'll cause teams problems - it might not be West Ham though who have strength & height (not to mention experience) across the back line & are rarely troubled by balls into the box. The Bluebirds looked very sound defensively last season & that'll help out here but they don't appear to have a proven goalscorer at this level, Frazier Campbell could be that man if he can stay fit, & they may also lack a little bit of guile in midfeld. Club record signing the Chilean Gary Medel probably won't add that creative touch as he's more of a destroyer type & although he's made himself into a club legend over the past 6 years Peter Whittingham never stood out as a youngster when with Aston Villa so has it all to prove. The young South Korean Kim Bo-Kyung could be the man to watch for Cardiff, he's settled in after a promising first season & may prefer the slightly less physical environment of the Premier League than the Championship - he's seen as a potential star by many fans & has taken on Park Ji Sung's number 7 shirt for his national team.

Cardiff continued to signal their intent with the slightly surprising signing of Steven Caulker from Tottenham, the North London club seemed to be singing his praises for much of last season but clearly he didn't feature in AVB's plans as he wanted to turn his team into genuine title challengers. Caulker could be a steal at just £8m, having the potential to be a mainstay for many years; he has only very recently signed though & may take time to settle in & that's a big reason why we reckon West Ham are good value for the win here. The Hammers have a very settled squad & they should look to take advantage of that over the first few weeks of the season starting here. They've retained the excellent Mo Diame & he should handle the Cardiff midfield whilst Kevin Nolan will be relishing linking up with Andy Carroll again further up the pitch, Matt Jarvis &, if he starts, Stewart Downing should keep the Cardiff fullbacks busy & this could be a long afternoon for the Welsh side's defence & keeper David Marshall. Take West Ham to get a win on the board at best odds of Evens with BetVictor or Paddy Power.

Selections:
Southampton to beat West Brom draw no bet at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
West Ham United to beat Cardiff City at Evens (BetVictor & Paddy Power)

Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Watford's Hornets possess more sting than Brentford's Bees

Last week we set out our fancies for Championship success over the course of the season & for Twitter followers selected Peterborough as our bet of the weekend (successful at 11/10) but this week we're back with our first proper blog of the season & we've trawled the games & the stats to bring you some value tips.

Watford vs Bournemouth

We reckon that this is the game to watch this weekend with last season's highest scorers in the Championship, Watford, playing host to last year's top goal-getters from League One as Eddie Howe's Bournemouth roll into town.

(Watford's Almen Abdi shows off his smooth technique)

The two teams are some of the more interesting clubs around, both on & off the pitch, with Watford's strong ties to Italy & there being talk of potentially very substantial sums of money around Bournemouth who are part-owned by (amusingly named) Russian businessman Max Denim. Both sides are committed to playing attractive football & that comes from the coaches with Gianfranco Zola being one of the finest players to grace English football in the past 20 years & Eddie Howe one of the brightest young managerial talents around whose reputation was seemingly not harmed by his sacking from Burnley. That attacking philosophy is borne out not just by the fact that both teams were top scorers in their leagues but also because they happened to ship a few goals too with Watford's games containing joint-most overall last year & Bournemouth's 2nd most in League One.

Both teams have started out with 100% records with wins on the first league game of the season & then midweek victories in the first round of the League Cup so will be coming into this game with a little bit of a bounce in their step. That however may not be a good thing for Bournemouth as they are running into one of the Championship's top teams here who only missed out on automatic promotion by a couple of points last year & appear to have a top striker in Troy Deeney even if they couldn't persuade their top man from last year Matej Vydra to stay. The Hornets don't have to just rely on Deeney for firepower though with the diminutive Fernando Forestieri chipping in with a few & the excellent Almen Abdi ready to score as well as creat goals from midfield.

Bournemouth have tried to improve their options in defence with the signings of Ian Harte & Elliott Ward but more than that needs to be done if they aren't to concede with regularity & at the moment it remains to be seen whether their attack at the other end will be able to compensate although Lewis Grabban had a dream start bagging both goals in their 2-1 win against Charlton. We've no worries that Bournemouth will stay up this year as their home form seems likely to be strong but it's on the road that we worry & Watford should be slightly shorter than 8/11 to win this one - the odds of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals was tempting too but we'll stay with the home win.

Brentford vs Sheffield United

The other game we like the look of from a betting point of view is between last season's 3rd & 5th place League One sides, Uwe Rosler's Brentford & start-up manager David Weir's Sheffield United as the two well fancied teams battle it out for early season supremacy.

(Sheffield United will do well to hold on to 6"4 youngster Harry Maguire for another year)

Brentford have gone about increasing their squad size in the summer with loans & permanent signings, with Will Grigg probably the standout buy after the 22 year old scored 19 times in the league for Walsall last term. The Blades have been more cautious in the transfer market in terms of volume but have a big squad already & they'll be desperate for new signings Febian Brandy & Lyle Taylor to fire in the goals they need to add to their defensive solidity that Weir will look to maintain.

Both teams lost a joint league-low 9 games last season but came up with too many draws to claim an automatic promotion place & instead failed in the playoffs. With Sheffield United surely coming to first ensure they don't lose this could be a tense little encounter & that means the draw becomes a big player in the market & odds of 12/5 are very fair indeed. We think Sheffield United will be ultra conscious of the threat Clayton Donaldson provides the Bees & will attempt to defend in numbers to counter that & as they are so comfortable on the back foot a small play of No Goalscorer at 17/2 with BetVictor is advised also.

Selections:
Watford to beat Bournemouth at 8/11 (Various)
Brentford to draw with Sheffield United at 12/5 (Bet365 & SkyBet)
No Goalscorer - Brentford vs Sheffield United at 17/2 (BetVictor)

Championship Antepost Preview 2013-14 - Can't see the Woods for the Forest

It’s hard to believe that it will have only been 69 days since Crystal Palace were victorious in the Championship playoff final when the 2013/14 season gets underway on Saturday. It certainly won’t be long before the same old clichés of "anyone can beat anyone" and "it's the hardest league to get out of" are used again & to be fair it's possible to stake a claim for a dozen sides this coming season but having considered the likely promotion contenders we’ve got two selections... at the prices we think Nottingham Forest at 11/1 (Sky Bet) to win the league and Brighton at 11/2 (BetVictor) to earn promotion represent good value.

(Defender Eric Lichaj appeared in nearly half of Aston Villa's Premier League games last year & looks a solid addition to the Forest squad)

Billy Davies guided Forest into 8^th place last season. Davies took over as Forest manager for the second time with just 15 games of the season remaining, winning 7 of those 15 (46%). A full pre-season working with the players and the ability to sign his own players will certainly help the Forest cause. Lewis McGugan and David McGoldrick have departed however Jamie Mackie, Eric Lichaj, Gonzalo Jara, Jack Hobbs, Dorus De Vries, Djamel Abdoun and Jamie Paterson have all joined the club meaning more strength in depth across the pitch & they certainly look to have options at every position which is key in the grueling 46 league game season.

The ability to pick up points away from home is key in this division – it’s no surprise that the three sides that won the most away games in 12/13 filled the top three places in the table. Not only do Forest need to pick up points away from home but they also  need to turn draws into wins if they are to challenge at the top end of the Championship this season. In 12/13 they drew on 16 occasions, had three of these draws been victories they'd have finished above the eventually promoted side Crystal Palace, hopefully the signings of Mackie et al can improve their fortunes. If they can continue the upward curve that Billy Davies sent them on at the end of last season then Nottingham Forest have every chance of challenging for the top prize.

 

 (New Brighton boss Oscar Garcia will be hoping for no repeats of last year's 'dirty protests' in the dressing room)

We see no reason why the departure of Gus Poyet will destabilise Brighton who impressed many last season when finishing 4^th. The managerial saga was finally concluded in June when former Barca youth coach Oscar Garcia was announced as boss & clearly he's a top pedigree that should fit right in with Brighton's smooth passing style.

Like Forest if Brighton can turn draws into wins they can propel themselves even higher in the league, they accumulated a whopping 18 draws last season & they’ll be hoping that Garcia’s attacking style of play aids them in collecting maximum points more often. Just like Forest they finished last season strongly – 'winning' the second half of the season (claiming 41 points from 23 games).

There have been minimal tweaks in the playing personnel with the permanent signing of the experienced Matthew Upson a boost for the club. Wayne Bridge however will be plying his trade for promotion rivals Reading in 2013/14. We’re in no doubt that Garcia will add to his playing squad before the transfer deadline closes & if they can replicate their performances of last year they should put themselves in the mix once again & claim at least a shot in the playoffs & at a best price of 11/2 (BetVictor) for promotion we think that’s good value.

In the handicap market we think that Ipswich, under Mick McCarthy and Blackburn Rovers will improve on last season; however they’ll probably fall just short with +14 and +12 points respectively. Our selection in this market is Middlesbrough. At 25/1 with a +16 handicap we believe Tony Mowbray’s men can surprise a few and challenge for a top 8 position, giving them every chance in the handicap market. An improvement is required on their travels in they are to compete in the top half, having won 13 of their home games (same amount as promoted Hull) its obvious that the return of 17 points away from the Riverside needs to be bettered in 13/14. Boro finished just 9 points off the playoffs last term – quite remarkable given the fact that they amassed fewer points than any other side in the second half of the season, a summer to shake out the negative thoughts that must've crept in towards the end of the year will have done them the world of good.

(Jordan Rhodes is this division's most proven goalscorer & a worthy favourite for the golden boot)

It's hardly a selection out of the blue given that the Oldham born striker is the favourite but the £8 million hitman Jordan Rhodes bagged 27 goals in 43 appearances at this level last season and a similar return this year should see him triumphant with the only worry being that a Premier League club or maybe Celtic... could come in for him in either transfer window. Rhodes can be backed at 8/1 with BetVictor.

We also quite like a speculative 80/1 (Betfred) shot. Michael Chopra has moved from Ipswich to Blackpool in the close season and clearly knows where the net is. His off the field problems have been well documented and a move to Blackpool might not exactly change his ways however there's no doubt that at this level he scores goals & Blackpool have an attacking philosophy (often to the detriment of their woeful defence) that will help Chopra’s cause. His recent returns haven’t been that impressive but it’s likely that he’ll start far more games for Paul Ince's Tangerines and if he gets the service we can see the goals coming. At an average a goal every 3 appearances (including sub appearances) throughout his career it's feasible Chopra could get 16+ goals for the Bloomfield Road outfit & that should give him a better chance of sneaking into the each way places than odds of 80/1 imply.

Selections:

Nottingham Forest to win the league at 11/1 (Skybet)

Brighton to gain promotion at 11/2 (BetVictor)

Middlesbrough to win handicap with +16 points at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Jordan Rhodes top scorer at 8/1 (BetVictor)

Michael Chopra (e/w) top scorer at 80/1 (Betfred)

Champions League - United say bring it on Mourinho

Lovely, a little bit of the best club competition in the world this week as the Champions League returns & we've got previews of Tuesday's two games plus a fancy over two legs for the Real Madrid vs Manchester United tie.

Celtic vs Juventus

Celtic have already done magnificently well to qualify from their group containing European masters Barcelona  & they now take on another heavyweight in Juventus.

(Big man Fraser Forster will be hard to beat in Celtic's goal)

Neil Lennon's men have managed to get fired up for their Champions League games so far (they're by far & away the only big games they face nowadays thanks to Rangers demotion) & they were unbeaten at home in their group including when holding Barcelona to a nil-nil draw & they're unlikely to opt for an expansive approach here. Fraser Forster, their giant young English goalkeeper, has been in top form this season & he'll be protected by a decent defence including the outstanding left back Emilio Izaguirre. That solid base means Celtic are comfortable with teams coming on to them & they'll have to be as Juventus will have a lot of the ball thanks to Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings.

Juve also have ex-Man United youngster Paul Pogba establishing himself as a player of real talent & potential & he'll provide the battling qualities they'll need here. Juventus however don't have a striker on their books who can strike fear into opposition defences like other top clubs in Europe do, with no one player having scored more than 10 this season & they've recently signed veteran Nicolas Anelka but he's not made an appearance yet & he may not play here.

We expect the Old Lady will come through over two legs but they are pragmatic & would not view a draw as a bad result as they'll have a lot of confidence that they can overpower the SPL side back in Turin, bearing in mind Celtic are very hard to beat at Celtic Park the 11/4 on offer about a draw is too big a price to miss.

Valencia vs Paris Saint-Germain

This has the potential to be an exciting tie with Valencia doing well in their qualifying group & having star striker Robert Soldado scoring freely this season whilst free-spending PSG have assembled a great attacking squad & have started to really leave their mark on their domestic league.

(Lucas Moura is maybe PSG's most exciting talent)

Valencia, like so many other Spanish clubs, remain in a precarious financial situation & they changed managers at the beginning of December with ex-Rafa Benitez assistant Mauricio Pellegrino taking up the head coach reins for the first time in his career. They play some nice attacking football with the option to be quie direct with Robert Soldado an excellent focal point & also play some more intricate stuff through the likes of the Brazilian Jonas & the technically sound Tino Costa. That attacking play can though sometimes come at a cost defensively & they've shipped 35 goals in La Liga so far, twice conceding 5 in a single game this season. Full backs Cissokho & Pereira are better going forwards than at defending whilst there is not a settled first choice keeper at the moment with Alves & Vicente Guaita fighting over the number one shirt.

PSG really are an interesting case, their lack of Champions League experience as a club should limit their potential according to established thinking yet they smashed their way through the group stage & have some incredibly exciting talents at the club (obviously not including David 'stunt signing' Beckham!). Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a fine footballer, & is now more appreciated here in the UK, & is ably supported in attack by Ezequiel Lavezzi who played so well for Napoli along with Edison Cavani last season. The player who most interests us though is the incredibly talented Brazilian youngster Lucas Moura who was bought before the start of the season but loaned straight back to Sao Paulo before joining up with the French club this January. Moura really is a unique talent as you'll see in the video above & this could be the game where he shows why he cost around 45 million euros.

The French league have certainly given PSG every chance of success in this one by scheduling their Ligue 1 game last Friday, just a couple of days after the international friendlies but meaning they've had a lot of time to prepare for this game. PSG are strong favourites to win over two legs so to see odds of 2/1+ for them to win here looks a little on the big side when you consider their big 15 points haul in their qualifying group, put your trust in them to put on a show of attacking brilliance & put this to bed before the return match.

Real Madrid vs Manchester United

This is a monster of a game with the two biggest club sides in the world facing off against each other & some of football's biggest personalities to boot, you'll see plenty of pictures of the Portugese pair of Jose Mourinho & the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo but this could just be the last we see of them in this season's competition...

(Cristiano Ronaldo would be the greatest in any other era - WHY MESSI??!!!)

In terms of man for man players Madrid would seemingly be able to play United off the park if reputations were all that mattered with the likes of Ronaldo, Ozil, Khedira, Alonso, Benzema, Higuain, Sergio Ramos, Modric & di Maria but it takes more than names & individuals to make a great team & Real are not quite that. There are some serious internal issues at Madrid with apparent divisions between the large Portugese contingent & the Spanish players with reports that Sergio Ramos & popular keeper Ilker Casillas had issued a warning to the club president that players would be looking to leave in the Summer if Mourinho wasn't removed. It's all led to Real being far off the pace in the league & although they can of course come up with ace performances (they should be able to with that list of talent) they have at times looked off the pace & sloppy & were just dreadful at Granada last week when losing 1-0 to a Ronaldo on goal. Madrid are without top keeper Casillas through injury for both games & that's a worry when backup Antonio Adan has only played for them 7 times & is coming up against a United strikeforce that have the highest chance conversion rate in the Premier League.

(Rafael da Silva has been in fine form this season, especially in recent games)

United are all about the team & although they clearly have outstanding individuals they are arguably greater than the sum of their parts & Ferguson continues to prove he's a shrewd tactical manager - maybe something he doesn't get credited for as much as his other skills. The key in this game is to stop Cristiano Ronaldo & don't be surprised to see someone do a man marking job but there's reason to believe he could have troubles anyway as Rafael is turning into a fine player, adding in the defensive skills & decision making to complement his tremendous attacking threat. Gary Neville giving him Sky Sports' man of the match award this Sunday was a nice touch & the ex-United right back will have done so with one eye on giving him added confidence for this game. With van Persie up front the Red Devils always pose a potent threat & Wayne Rooney & the emerging Shinji Kagawa can expose any chinks in the Madrid defence - they definitely exist. At the other end of the pitch Nemanja Vidic is getting back to full fitness & making a big difference in the heart of the defence whilst David de Gea is also improving, his shot stopping skills have never been in doubt & that could be decisive with Ronaldo's shoot on sight policy.

You'll read & hear a lot about Real being a long way off Barcelona in the league & looking very unlikely to catch them so they'll be super pumped for this Champions League game but that's too much of trying to turn a negative into a positive - they're way behind because of their inconsistency & the fact they aren't as good as the sum of their parts. We've noted previously that United are on for an enormous points haul in the league & their play has been underestimated this season, with the 2nd leg of this tie at Old Trafford that's a significant advantage & we genuinely believe they should be odds on to qualify - they aren't so instead take great odds of 6/4 for Ferguson's men to go through to the quarter finals. You likely won't get another chance to back Robin van Persie to score 1st at odds as big as 7/1 all season so take them, he's United's far likeliest scorer as Rooney will drop off the front because his work rate further back is too useful in these big European games.

Selections:
Celtic & Juventus to draw at 11/4 (Stan James)
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Valencia at 11/5 (BetVictor, Stan James & William Hill)
Manchester United to qualify over Real Madrid at 6/4 (Coral)
Robin van Persie to score first at 7/1 (Various)

Yaya can inspire City to South Coast win

Weekend football again after the midweek friendlies  & these are fixtures that make for a far better betting proposition than players running around halfheartedly & mass changes at half time. We're certainly hoping for better results than when watching the Ravens win the Super Bowl, or more accurately the 49ers lose it after a hopeless start to the game!

Southampton vs Manchester City

Southampton have been a much talked about team over the past few weeks after replacing Nigel Adkins with Spaniard Mauricio Pochettino & then putting up an impressive performance, although ultimately losing, when facing Man Utd at Old Trafford, they've got a tough game at St Mary's in the day's late kickoff when they take on Manchester City.

(City have got rid of Balotelli & have Yaya Toure back - winners on all fronts)

Both teams have been hard to beat recently with Southampton losing only 2 of their last 9 league games & City just twice all season but both have dropped points to drawn games with 6 from the Saints in that 9 game sequence & City have lost crucial momentum & ground on United with draws against QPR & Liverpool in their last two. There's good reason to think that City can get back to winning ways here though as Mancini can't afford to be cautious with wins all that matter now that they're 9 points behind the leaders & maybe their very best player, Yaya Toure, returning after Africa Cup of Nations duties.

Yaya is one of the finest midfielders in the world & can impose his will on nearly any side at will & could be coming up against Morgan Schneiderlin in this one in what looks a mismatch in favour of City man. Southampton have a few injury worries to key players with Adam Lallana a doubt & defenders Luke Shaw, Jose Fonte & Nathanial Clyne joining him. Record signing Gaston Ramires is another who may not play & with that list of injury worries it's looking like a bad time to face the current champions.

Pochettino hasn't yet eked out a win whilst in charge of Southampton & although they've looked far more resilient than when leaking goals at the start of the year we can't see anything other than a win for Manchester City & odds of 4/6 with BetVictor look fair. City have too many weapons & are able to break teams down through skill through the likes of David Silva & Sergio Aguero or through physical dominance from players like Yaya Toure & the underappreciated Edin Dzeko & they'll pounce on any defensive weakness.

Norwich City vs Fulham

Norwich against Fulham may not be the most glamorous tie of the season but this is an intriguing one & important for both as points have been thin on the ground for the two teams sat level in the table on 28 points. Norwich boss Chris Hughton also served 3 years as Jol's assistant whilst at Tottenham & the Canaries will be keen to gain revenge for a 5-0 drubbing on the opening day from their London opponents.

(Martin Jol is seeking a rare away Fulham win)

Norwich haven't won in their past 8 league games & haven't managed to score in 4 of those, with none of their players having managed more than 5 goals in all competitions & Grant Holt certainly hasn't looked so impressive as last year after failing to engineer a move away from Carrow Road. They're reasonable at the back but miss John Ruddy in goal (long term injury) & have injury concerns about usual starters Alex Tettey & Anthony Pilkington.

Fulham rarely pick up wins in away games & they've stuttered after a great start to the season when they won 5 of 9 but the signs have been a bit better in recent games with their only losses in their last 5 league games coming against the Manchester sides whilst gaining wins away at West Brom &  at home against West Ham. They showed a lot of resistance last week against Man Utd, going down 1-0 to a late Rooney goal & they may have star player Dimitar Berbatov back for this after injury. Jol will also have found a bit of time to work with his January loan signings, of whom Urby Emanuelson & Emmanuel Frimpong look like they could be useful. Frimpong will certainly add a much needed bit of bite to the Fulham midfield & that could prove the area that they can better their hosts in this one.

Backing Fulham on the road is usually a sure way to the poor house but there have been encouraging signs in recent games whilst Norwich's form has slumped & they look bereft of attacking ideas, take the Cottagers to win at nice odds of 23/10. Checking the team sheets is advised in this game as Fulham did have more players on international duty, we jut think they've got a bit more going for them than Norwich who seem to be lacking in quality & confidence.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Southampton at 4/6 (BetVictor)
Fulham to beat Norwich at 23/10 (BetVictor)

Poor Pompey deserve Pity & Punting against

It's finally upon us, the first weekend of the English football season is here after a less tortuous summer break than usual thanks to great sport in the form of the Olympics & European Championships. We'll be bringing you our betting picks throughout the season as we try to seek out value in the multitude of markets the bookies now offer. We're hoping to get the year off to a nice start through backing against a couple of sides with various troubles who just so happen to be Harry 'Wheeler Dealer' Redknapp's last two teams.

Newcastle vs Spurs

The late kick-off in the Premiership this Saturday sees Newcastle host Tottenham at St James Park. Both sides will be in the battle to make the top four this season but you could say Newcastle have the edge at the moment.

(Is chairman Daniel Levy helping or hindering Spurs in their latest transfer saga?)

Spurs have had a summer of change with Harry Redknapp being replaced with Andres Villas-Boas & long term captain Ledley King retiring due to his chronic knee problem. What hasn't changed is the fact that chairman Daniel Levy has yet again let a summer transfer saga overrun without suitable conclusion & seems to think the season starts on the 1st September not mid-August. To come into the opening match with only one senior striker must seem laughable to their rivals & embarrassing to those fans in the stands as Levy has known this since the beginning of the summer (Adebayor's loan finishing & Saha being released). There is a real possibility of Spurs season starting badly with the famous 'two points from eight games' springing to mind with the only differences being a different foreign manager & transfer saga (Berbatov instead of Modric). Jermain Defoe scored a cracker for England in midweek but he doesn't inspire confidence in these quarters, pundits seem to love him yet they conveniently fail to note he's only broken past 13 league goals twice since his season on loan with Bournemouth in 2000-01 & is generally considered to be a 'flat track bully' (scores in bunches against weak sides).

(Newcastle have kept the players to mount a serious 'top four' challenge again)

Newcastle on the other hand have had a fairly quiet summer but have importantly kept hold of all their stars & will be looking to improve on their 5th place finish last season. A solid defence based around keeper Tim Krul & Fabricio Coloccini & defensive shield of Cheick Tiote allows Frenchmen Yohan Cabaye & Hatem Ben Afra to provide the balls to hot shots Papiss Cisse & Demba Ba. A few of these are slightly doubtful for the opener but we would expect them to have enough fit & raring go at kick off. If you add into the mix that Newcastle have only lost once at home in 2012 & Spurs away record to top six sides is notoriously bad the 17/10 on offer for a Toon Army win seems a value bet.

Portsmouth vs Bournemouth

(Portsmouth manager Michael Appleton is facing a uphill battle)

Sorry Portsmouth welcome Bournemouth to Fratton Park in their opening League One fixture. Without being a Pompey fan it will be hard to understand what they are going through after news that they are on the brink of liquidation again with prospective owner Balram Chainrai announcing he has withdrawn his offer to buy the club. The summer has seen all senior players leave via routes to other clubs or contract settlement being agreed & yet again they will have to field basically a youth team to fulfil this fixture. Tuesday night they were defeated 3-0 by Plymouth in the Capital One cup & after first team coach Ashley Westwood went off injured it left their entire outfield side aged 18 or under. In contrast Bournemouth have overcome their money issues in recent years & should be chomping at the bit to get underway with promotion a real possibility. The Cherries have made a number of astute signings & up-front they have three strikers in Lewis Grabban, Matt Tubbs & Josh McQuoid who will be a real handful for any defence, Tubbs & Grabban are both nearing favouritism for top scorer in the division.

Portsmouth have managed to sign 10 players, each on one month deals, this Thursday but it remains to be seen whether they have match fitness & there's no chance for them to gel before Saturday. We expect Bournemouth to take advantage of Pompey's current plight & grab the three points at best odds of 10/11, the side that Portsmouth have right now will be lucky to pick up a handful of wins all season & financial saviour won't stop them slipping into the basement league of English football.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 17/10 (William Hill)
Bournemouth to beat Portmouth at 10/11 (various)