NFL Antepost Preview 2013 - Falcons can soar to the Super Bowl

The 2013 NFL season is right upon us now & it looks like it could be one to savour with several teams making moves to challenge for the Super Bowl right now & the usual powerhouses still fielding strong sides. We're taking a look here at some of the best antepost bets for the season that will culminate in the Super Bowl on the first weekend in February 2014. Last year we gave the San Francisco 49ers to be the NFC champions at 7/1 & they duly obliged so hopefully we can pick out some more value here.

AFC

Denver Broncos

This year everybody has been talking about the Denver Broncos who start with legendary passer Peyton Manning for the 2nd year after his move across from Indianapolis after a serious injury & it's easy to see why the Broncos have been the talk of the league with several big moves. The addition of the prolific Wes Welker at receiver was probably the most eye-catching move; he's had over 1,000 receiving yards in 5 seasons & Manning will relish having him to pass to. Welker is 32 though & that's probably why the Patriots let him go, the Broncos are going all out for this season & that could put the pressure on from a very early stage. They've also added to their defense at the deep positions with the signings of the veteran safety Quentin Jammer & the excellent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback. We really like Rodgers-Cromartie who probably wasn't used to best effect at all times in his two years in Philadelphia but he was great at Arizona previously & could be a key player here.

(Von Miller is suspended for 6 games & that could cost Denver dearly)

It isn't all good for Denver though with their running game looking light now Willis McGahee has departed, it is a passing league now though so maybe they'll get away with it & just because teams know they'll pass a lot doesn't mean they'll be able to stop Peyton anyway! A bigger loss to the Broncos was that of their ace defensive end Elvis Dumervil who ended up going to Baltimore in part due to a late submission of paperwork by his agent. The worst news though was the suspension for 6 games (of their 16 game season) of their star defensive player, outside linebacker Von Miller for a substance violation. Miller is one of the league's very best players & with him missing it could mean the Bronco's don't end up winning quite enough games to be a top seed in the playoffs. The AFC West should still be a formality for them but without home advantage through the post-season their odds look short enough for the AFC & the Super Bowl so are reluctantly passed over.

Houston Texans

We were keen on outright glory for the Houston Texans last year & not too much has changed to think they shouldn't be right there again this year. They amassed an impressive 11 wins from their first 12 games last season before slumping at the end to 3 losses in 4 & missing the AFC's top seed that would have kept them at home throughout the playoffs which is key as they're a dome side meaning inclement winter weather can really harm their chances. Some labelled the Texans as 'soft' but we're not sure it was a choke & it's no coincidence the slide came when their dominant inside linebacker Brian Cushing was injured, we're certain if he'd stayed fit the story would have had a different outcome.

(The return of Brian Cushing from injury is great news for the Texans)

The Texans have some of the best players in key positions in the league with Arian Foster an elite running back, Andre Johnson an ace wide receiver, Brian Cushing as already mentioned & the 2012 defensive player fo the year J.J. Watts at defensive end. Add to that a very good offensive line, including maybe the game's best left tackle Duane Brown, & it's difficult to see how they won't end up close to 13 wins this year but many doubt the capabilities of the quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub doesn't have a reputation for being a 'clutch' player, meaning he doesn't come up with the plays in key situations often enough, but he's definitely highly talented as evidenced by him leading the league in key passer stats in 2009 (passing yards, completions, yards per game & attempts). If defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips can keep his young & hugely talented defense firing Schaub may not have to improve much anyway as they should always be in with a chance whilst keeping their opposition's scoring opportunities low.

At 7/1 to win the AFC Houston seem to be the value picks as we think the New England Patriots may eventually start to slow this year after being exceptional for so long & the Broncos are just to short in price. Of the other AFC contenders according to the bookmakers we don't think the Ravens will even win their division (we like the Bengals in the AFC North so that also rules out Pittsburgh who could end up with a losing season) & 2013 is too early for the improving Colts, Dolphins & Chiefs.

NFC

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC looks stronger than the AFC this year with powerhouses like the San Francisco 49ers & Green Bay plus the impressive & improving Seattle Seahawks & always dangerous New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears but the only team we want to side with is the Atlanta Falcons.

(Steven Jackson - last piece in the Atlanta Falcons' jigsaw?)

The Falcons are just scary in the passing game with a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan helped out by an amazing receiver corps of the ever youthful Tony Gonzalez at tight end & Julio Jones & Roddy White at wide receiver. The latter two thrive in the NFL with the rules helping their style of play by very much favouring them against the cornerbacks who will be trying to stop them - it's possible we could see Matt Ryan throw for career high numbers this year with them to aim at. The big improvement on offense has been the capture of Steven Jackson from the Rams at running back & he should mean that they can run the ball & use up the clock once they establish their now customary leads in games. Getting pegged back late on due to their inability to pound the ball up the middle really hurt Atlanta last year & it could be key to them getting their number one seed this year & staying at the Georgia Dome where they are so dominant.

Atlanta have also tried to improve their defense this year & taken a gamble on the now veteran defensive end Osi Umenyiora from the Giants but if he stays fit he'll add another dimension to their play bringing real aggression & pressure on opposition QB's - along with Justin Babineaux at defensive tackle they could have a lot of sacks this year. They've also looked to upgrade at cornerback with their first two draft selections & Desmond Trufant looks like he could thrive in the professional game, with their safety positions already solid look out for a much improved defensive showing this year.

Again like the Texans in the AFC Atlanta just look the value here with Seattle & San Francisco too short as joint favourites considering they'll have to play each other twice in the regular season meaning dropped games & Green Bay need to improve a little defensively even though their offense remains incredible. Take big odds of 9/1 for Atlanta to win the NFC & even bigger odds of 18/1 for them to collect their Super Bowl rings in early 2014.

Selections:
Houston Texans to win AFC at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC at 9/1 (General) & to win Super Bowl at 18/1 (Paddy Power)

Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Championship Antepost Preview 2013-14 - Can't see the Woods for the Forest

It’s hard to believe that it will have only been 69 days since Crystal Palace were victorious in the Championship playoff final when the 2013/14 season gets underway on Saturday. It certainly won’t be long before the same old clichés of "anyone can beat anyone" and "it's the hardest league to get out of" are used again & to be fair it's possible to stake a claim for a dozen sides this coming season but having considered the likely promotion contenders we’ve got two selections... at the prices we think Nottingham Forest at 11/1 (Sky Bet) to win the league and Brighton at 11/2 (BetVictor) to earn promotion represent good value.

(Defender Eric Lichaj appeared in nearly half of Aston Villa's Premier League games last year & looks a solid addition to the Forest squad)

Billy Davies guided Forest into 8^th place last season. Davies took over as Forest manager for the second time with just 15 games of the season remaining, winning 7 of those 15 (46%). A full pre-season working with the players and the ability to sign his own players will certainly help the Forest cause. Lewis McGugan and David McGoldrick have departed however Jamie Mackie, Eric Lichaj, Gonzalo Jara, Jack Hobbs, Dorus De Vries, Djamel Abdoun and Jamie Paterson have all joined the club meaning more strength in depth across the pitch & they certainly look to have options at every position which is key in the grueling 46 league game season.

The ability to pick up points away from home is key in this division – it’s no surprise that the three sides that won the most away games in 12/13 filled the top three places in the table. Not only do Forest need to pick up points away from home but they also  need to turn draws into wins if they are to challenge at the top end of the Championship this season. In 12/13 they drew on 16 occasions, had three of these draws been victories they'd have finished above the eventually promoted side Crystal Palace, hopefully the signings of Mackie et al can improve their fortunes. If they can continue the upward curve that Billy Davies sent them on at the end of last season then Nottingham Forest have every chance of challenging for the top prize.

 

 (New Brighton boss Oscar Garcia will be hoping for no repeats of last year's 'dirty protests' in the dressing room)

We see no reason why the departure of Gus Poyet will destabilise Brighton who impressed many last season when finishing 4^th. The managerial saga was finally concluded in June when former Barca youth coach Oscar Garcia was announced as boss & clearly he's a top pedigree that should fit right in with Brighton's smooth passing style.

Like Forest if Brighton can turn draws into wins they can propel themselves even higher in the league, they accumulated a whopping 18 draws last season & they’ll be hoping that Garcia’s attacking style of play aids them in collecting maximum points more often. Just like Forest they finished last season strongly – 'winning' the second half of the season (claiming 41 points from 23 games).

There have been minimal tweaks in the playing personnel with the permanent signing of the experienced Matthew Upson a boost for the club. Wayne Bridge however will be plying his trade for promotion rivals Reading in 2013/14. We’re in no doubt that Garcia will add to his playing squad before the transfer deadline closes & if they can replicate their performances of last year they should put themselves in the mix once again & claim at least a shot in the playoffs & at a best price of 11/2 (BetVictor) for promotion we think that’s good value.

In the handicap market we think that Ipswich, under Mick McCarthy and Blackburn Rovers will improve on last season; however they’ll probably fall just short with +14 and +12 points respectively. Our selection in this market is Middlesbrough. At 25/1 with a +16 handicap we believe Tony Mowbray’s men can surprise a few and challenge for a top 8 position, giving them every chance in the handicap market. An improvement is required on their travels in they are to compete in the top half, having won 13 of their home games (same amount as promoted Hull) its obvious that the return of 17 points away from the Riverside needs to be bettered in 13/14. Boro finished just 9 points off the playoffs last term – quite remarkable given the fact that they amassed fewer points than any other side in the second half of the season, a summer to shake out the negative thoughts that must've crept in towards the end of the year will have done them the world of good.

(Jordan Rhodes is this division's most proven goalscorer & a worthy favourite for the golden boot)

It's hardly a selection out of the blue given that the Oldham born striker is the favourite but the £8 million hitman Jordan Rhodes bagged 27 goals in 43 appearances at this level last season and a similar return this year should see him triumphant with the only worry being that a Premier League club or maybe Celtic... could come in for him in either transfer window. Rhodes can be backed at 8/1 with BetVictor.

We also quite like a speculative 80/1 (Betfred) shot. Michael Chopra has moved from Ipswich to Blackpool in the close season and clearly knows where the net is. His off the field problems have been well documented and a move to Blackpool might not exactly change his ways however there's no doubt that at this level he scores goals & Blackpool have an attacking philosophy (often to the detriment of their woeful defence) that will help Chopra’s cause. His recent returns haven’t been that impressive but it’s likely that he’ll start far more games for Paul Ince's Tangerines and if he gets the service we can see the goals coming. At an average a goal every 3 appearances (including sub appearances) throughout his career it's feasible Chopra could get 16+ goals for the Bloomfield Road outfit & that should give him a better chance of sneaking into the each way places than odds of 80/1 imply.

Selections:

Nottingham Forest to win the league at 11/1 (Skybet)

Brighton to gain promotion at 11/2 (BetVictor)

Middlesbrough to win handicap with +16 points at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Jordan Rhodes top scorer at 8/1 (BetVictor)

Michael Chopra (e/w) top scorer at 80/1 (Betfred)

League Two Antepost Bets - Going once more to the Wells

Anyway, we're back, we'll be bringing you our regular articles and best bets over the course of the coming season and we'll be interacting with you on Twitter and asking for your top tips each week to find out what you're backing, keep your eyes peeled for more information on this.

With the big kick off just around the corner we've been seeking some long term value bets at big prices that warrant an investment that only sees any potential return only coming back to you in 9 months time - first up we've a couple of top scorer bets from League Two.

(Adam Birchall will hope to get on the scoring trail for Gillingham after missing last season through injury)

Gillingham's Adam Birchall looks a decent bet for top scorer as thus far into pre season the 2011/12 League Two top scorers (79) have managed to keep hold of Danny Jackman who provided nine assists last term & his form will be key to Birchall's chances of bagging  the required 20+ goals. Manager, Martin 'Mad Dog' Allen is keen to partner Birchall and Danny Kedwell together & Kedwell should continue to work himself into the ground week after week, he is seen by many, us included, as the foil to Birchall.

With Birchall having missed last season through an injury suffered in a pre season friendly the ex-Dover man must be chomping at the bit to lead the line for the Gills (ironically enough he scored against his former club in a recent friendly). Having bagged 64 goals in 78 games for Dover, Birchall attracted interest from the likes of now League One outfit Swindon Town before moving to Gillingham. The fancied sides in the division each have a number of striking options which we think might dilute their strikers' chances whereas Birchall should be the Gills' focal point, he provides a good value bet at 40/1+ to be top League Two scorer.

(Bradford's young Bermudan striker Nahki Wells should form a potent partnership with Alan Connell)

Another option in the top scorer market is Bradford's 22 year old striker Nahki Wells, again priced at 40/1 with BetVictor. Nahki signed for the Bantams last summer as 'one for the future' however injuries to Bradford's forward line meant the youngster was given a chance of first team football & he rewarded that trust as he bagged 10 league goals from 18 starts, & showed he's not a one trick pony by scoring a variety of goals. Interest in the summer was high and Bradford offered him an improved contract to keep suitors at bay. Also this summer Bradford have added much needed midfielders to their ranks: the likes of Gary Jones, Will Atkinson, Garry Thompson and 9th summer signing Nathan Doyle have all signed for Phil Parkinson's side. Wells has bagged 4 goals in 5 pre season and looks likely to feature far more in the first team alongside another new signing Alan Connell (from Swindon).

The pressure is on Bradford once again this season, they are seen by many as playoff contenders and to achieve a lofty position Wells and Connell need to weigh in with plenty of goals. The only worry with Wells is if he starts off well enough there could be interest from teams in League One or above during the January transfer window, of course he could even get signed up by another League Two club which would keep the bet going - the risk is worth taking though & explains his inflated odds of 40/1.
Selections:
Adam Birchall to be top League Two goalscorer at 40/1 (BetVictor)
Nahki Wells to be top League Two goalscorer at 40/1 (BetVictor)