Super Saints to get a Divine Start to the Season

Well... seeing as it's the start of the season in the top division in England we thought we'd better go for a Premier League double bill & have selections from games involving new England hero Rickie Lambert's Southampton & everyone's favourite manager 'Big Sam' & his West Ham side. So far we've started out with 2 of 3 outright selections hitting the mark with Peterborough in the first week of the season & Watford slamming home the pick with a 6-1 hammering, the loser was a 9/4 draw bet & we're hoping to improve this week! As always make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney - it's a good place to let us know your views & we'll put picks up there sometimes too.

West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton

Last year's overperformers West Brom host substantial summer spenders Southampton at the Hawthorns where Mauricio Pochettino's men will be hoping to add to their rather measly 3 away victories in comparison to 2012-13.

(Morgan Schneiderlin's exceptional 2012-13 season went unrecognised for the most part but people should sit up & take notice this time around)

Southampton have gone fairly big on the signings front in an attempt to avoid second season syndrome that sides promoted from the Championship that do well in their first season can tend to suffer; Victor Wanyama has come in from Celtic for £12.5m & should help shore up the midfield area in front of defence & Croatian centre back Dejan Lovren has come in for around £8.5m. We like the approach that Southampton have taken, bringing in relative youngsters (22 & 24 respectively) & going for quality rather than quantity in an attempt to strengthen in specific areas. We still reckon they may want to upgrade between the sticks at some point as Artur Boruc is slightly unpredictable & they don't appear to have much strength in depth behind new England cap winner Rickie Lambert with Jay Rodriguez not convincing on the goals front in the top flight so far.

(Ben Foster - England's No 1?)

The lack of strike options could cost Southampton over the season but we reckon Lambert will be bouncing after his debut against Scotland & could prove too hot for the West Brom defenders to handle - he'll already have had shooting practice against Ben Foster in midweek & will be ultra confident & that spells trouble for the Baggies who were pretty toothless, Lukaku aside, last year.

West Brom will have new signings in Nicolas Anelka & Matej Vydra still trying to bed in & goals could be at a premium for the first few weeks of the season & although they'll remain somewhat hard to beat with Yacob & Mulumbu physically dominating a lot of midfields those two probably don't have a great match-up in this one. Wanyama will be there for the Saints but will also be joined by the emerging Jack Cork & one of the stars of the entire league last season Morgan Schneiderlin whose stats last season were through the roof topping tackles & interceptions showing just what a good young player he is - there hasn't been much transfer talk around the young Frenchman but it wouldn't be surprising to see a big club come sniffing around before long. Adam Lallana & Gaston Ramirez should keep the West Brom fullbacks busy too & that should limit chances for Wes Brom. Just 3 away wins last season remains a concern & we'd rather not take them outright instead having the insurance offered at 13/10 with Ladbrokes on the draw no bet market we like the Saints chances of starting the season very brightly indeed.

West Ham United vs Cardiff City

West Ham bounced back up to the top flight last season & ended up just inside the top half with a very respectable 10th placed finish & they'll be looking to build on that this year whilst Cardiff's number one priority is to avoid slipping straight back to the Championship. This game is actually a repeat of their opening fixture from two seasons back in the Championship where Cardiff prevailed 1-0, West Ham however gained their revenge by beating the Bluebirds three times in a row after that including in the playoffs. We're keen on the home side again this time as they'll see this as an ideal opportunity to get the season off to a flyer.

(Andy Carroll & Kevin Nolan - maybe the Premier League's most effective partnership?)

West Ham can trouble pretty much any team in the Premier League because most sides just aren't used to dealing with many teams that play quite the way Sam Allardyce's sides do with Stoke maybe the only other side who've had a similar style in that they're quite happy to concede possession & instead make the most of when they do have the ball by getting it forward with pace. Allardyce clearly believes that he's got a squad capable of executing his plans because there haven't been too many major changes in the summer apart from clearing out a bit of expensive dead wood in Carlton Cole's departure & the recent signing of Stewart Downing. Romanian left back, the amusingly named, Razvan Rat has joined & the signing of Spanish keeper Adrian looks a smart move as Jussi Jaaskelainen's time as a top stopper looks to be coming to an end. Downing will join up with his ex-Liverpool team mate Andy Carroll who's been added as a permanent signing & although the big Geordie isn't everyone's cup of tea he fits just right at West Ham who always look to play to his strengths.

(Cardiff's Kim Bo-Kyung could take his game to another level in the top division)

Cardiff may be planning to play their new signing Andreas Cornelius in a similar type of role to that of Carroll because the young Danish international looks a bit of a beast at 6'4" & given the right service he'll cause teams problems - it might not be West Ham though who have strength & height (not to mention experience) across the back line & are rarely troubled by balls into the box. The Bluebirds looked very sound defensively last season & that'll help out here but they don't appear to have a proven goalscorer at this level, Frazier Campbell could be that man if he can stay fit, & they may also lack a little bit of guile in midfeld. Club record signing the Chilean Gary Medel probably won't add that creative touch as he's more of a destroyer type & although he's made himself into a club legend over the past 6 years Peter Whittingham never stood out as a youngster when with Aston Villa so has it all to prove. The young South Korean Kim Bo-Kyung could be the man to watch for Cardiff, he's settled in after a promising first season & may prefer the slightly less physical environment of the Premier League than the Championship - he's seen as a potential star by many fans & has taken on Park Ji Sung's number 7 shirt for his national team.

Cardiff continued to signal their intent with the slightly surprising signing of Steven Caulker from Tottenham, the North London club seemed to be singing his praises for much of last season but clearly he didn't feature in AVB's plans as he wanted to turn his team into genuine title challengers. Caulker could be a steal at just £8m, having the potential to be a mainstay for many years; he has only very recently signed though & may take time to settle in & that's a big reason why we reckon West Ham are good value for the win here. The Hammers have a very settled squad & they should look to take advantage of that over the first few weeks of the season starting here. They've retained the excellent Mo Diame & he should handle the Cardiff midfield whilst Kevin Nolan will be relishing linking up with Andy Carroll again further up the pitch, Matt Jarvis &, if he starts, Stewart Downing should keep the Cardiff fullbacks busy & this could be a long afternoon for the Welsh side's defence & keeper David Marshall. Take West Ham to get a win on the board at best odds of Evens with BetVictor or Paddy Power.

Selections:
Southampton to beat West Brom draw no bet at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
West Ham United to beat Cardiff City at Evens (BetVictor & Paddy Power)

Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Baggies to Bounce Back against Pallid Potters

Most of the League One & Two sides are in cup action this weekend so our regular bread winners have had to be deserted but we think there is money to be made by backing a couple of decent teams to bounce back against some low scoring dodgy travellers in the Premier League & Championship. We're looking for yet another profitable weekend, last time was middling but still profitable thanks to 3 out of 5 selections obliging including the 9/4 draw in the Charlton v Huddersfield game.

West Bromwich Albion vs Stoke City

In the Premier League, West Bromwich Albion entertain Stoke City at the Hawthorns, West Brom sit in 4th place with eight victories so far whilst Stoke are just above mid-table in 9th spot. The sides come into this one on the back of conflicting results with Stoke battling back impressively to win 2-1 after falling behind against out of form Newcastle & West Brom conceding 3 goals in the first half to lose 3-1 to Swansea.

 (Steve Clarke has already had plenty of reason to celebrate in his new job as manager)

Steve Clarke has made a seamless transition from a right hand man to manager & has earnt plenty of plaudits for their impressive start. Clarke has learnt his trade under a number of different managers, most notably Jose Mourinho, & has always had the reputation of making sure the sides he's involved with are well organised & defensively solid. When you add into the mix three strikers in Shane Long, Peter Odemwingie & loanee Romelu Lukaku who have 14 league goals between them then we can see why they have started so well - of course the outstanding Roy Hodgson's role in setting West Brom on the right path should also not be underestimated. West Brom are particularly strong at home where they have won six out of seven league games with their only failure coming with a defeat against defending champions Manchester City.

Stoke are now a established Premier league side these days but have always struggled on the road & so far this season it's been no different. They have failed to win any of their seven away league fixtures with four draws & three defeats against Manchester United, Chelsea & Norwich City. All season they have struggled to find the back of the net with only 13 goals at less than a goal a game & leading scorer Peter Crouch hasn't found the net since September.

Although the Baggies lost to Swansea on Wednesday they face very a very different style of opponent here & if they can get their midfielders on the ball they will fancy themselves to score & with Stoke so goal shy they'll fancy themselves to bag all 3 points - back West Brom to continue their excellent home form at the general price of 21/20.

Leicester City vs Derby County

Leicester disappointed on Tuesday night with a loss away to Leeds but Elland Road can be an intimidating stadium & we like the look of them to make the most of their home advantage against a merely average Derby side this Saturday.

(Kasper Schmeichel & the rest of the Leicester defence can keep Derby at bay)

Derby got themselves a good result with a 1-1 draw at home to high flying Cardiff in midweek but were maybe fortunate to run into the Bluebirds when they were suffering from several injuries & they were 1-0 down until Craig Noone got himself red carded after fouling twice in quick succession. Derby do have an excellent youngster in Will Hughes & the 17 year old midfielder is reportedly catching the eye of big clubs in this country & around Europe but his best form has tended to be at home much like the rest of his teammates. Derby have lost 5 of their 9 away games & only Ipswich have scored less goals on the road & that doesn't bode well coming up against Leicester's excellent defence that have only conceded 17 in 19 games. Theo Robinson is certainly proving a threat up front for the Rams but he very much needs service to thrive & he might not get that in away games.

Leicester really felt the absence of their star striker David Nugent against Leeds but still offered a threat with the improving Martyn Waghorn hitting the bar - ironically Nugent is out with a neck injury & Waghorn himself has no neck at all but it doesn't stop him from being a skillful player. The Foxes are hopeful of getting Nugent back & fit for this one but even without him they'll feel confident of getting all 3 points with their strong defence continuing to impress, Kasper Schmeichel has always been a decent enough young keeper but he eventually seems to be really making his mark & thriving in the Midlands. With 7 wins from 9 home games we think Leicester should be shorter than 7/10 to beat Derby who sit 19th in the away form league table.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to beat Stoke City at 21/20 (various)
Leicester City to beat Derby County at 7/10 (BlueSquare, 888Sport & William Hill)

QPR can stop West Brom's Home Run Hitting

We always try to keep things relatively simple here at Like Buying Money & also make sure we don't flood you with selections, preferring instead a measured & selective approach - it pays off sometimes & we were delighted to see a couple of away sides win at tasty odds for us in the week & we're looking to play away again this weekend with picks from the Premier League & League Two.

West Bromwich Albion vs Queens Park Rangers

We were happy to go against QPR on Monday night when they hosted West Ham but there are a few reasons to believe they may just offer a bit of value when travelling to the Midlands to take on West Brom at The Hawthorns.

(Adel Taarabt loves Allah & we'll love Taarabt if he helps QPR beat West Brom)

Steve Clarke's men have been getting plenty of plaudits for their good start to he season but they have run into a few opponents who just haven't performed in their early games especially Merseyside duo Liverpool & Everton who both threw in very poor displays against the Baggies & they've also been lucky enough to face a clueless Reading side. Those three home games have accounted for all of West Brom's wins but that is three more than QPR who remain winless yet Mark Hughes seems to genuinely have the support of the club as he continues to work to bed down his multitude of new players. That faith in Mark Hughes inside the club whilst many outside question his position & the results could just help to create a siege mentality amongst his players & he has plenty who could prove effective if they can just learn to function as a team. Zamora & Cisse provide such a physical presence up front & have formed a real partnership with one dropping off when the other moves forward & we could see the mercurial Adel Taarabt make a start after his stunning strike brought Rangers back into the game on Monday night.

QPR still have problems at the back but it looks possible that Fabio, Anton Ferdinand & Jose Bosingwa could all return for Saturday's game & that would make them a bit quicker going down the wings plus although he isn't the greatest player Ferdinand will provide some much needed leadership at the back. West Brom have a boost with Peter Odewingie available after his silly suspension but he mightn't get straight back in with Long & Lukaku having done reasonably well so far, we could see there being an atmosphere in the dressing room whatever decision is made there & creates a little bit of risk for the  manager. Captain Chris Brunt is out for West Brom & also right back Billy Jones as they both went off injured in the derby game against Villa. West Brom were second best against Villa even though they took the lead & it might be that they are running out of steam a little bit after a good start, even though QPR had the worst away record in the league last year we think they offer value here at odds of 100/30.

Oxford United vs Gillingham

Gillingham lost their unbeaten record last weekend but have been 100% on the road & overall have 8 wins from their first 10 in the league, here they travel to take on Oxford who have form that is a little more mixed with 4 wins & 6 losses, those 6 defeats were all in a row & only stopped when beating disappointing AFC Wimbledon on Tuesday night.

(Matt Fish has been in good form for a well-balanced Gillingham side this season)

Gillingham just seem to be really rolling with Danny Kedwell in the form of his life since being made captain & the signing at the other end of the pitch of Stuart Nelson has helped shore things up at the back. Not many would have predicted Deon Burton would have proved a success after two years in Azerbaijan but he's come back & found the net 4 times showing that even at 35 he can still just about cut it at this level & all of his goals have come in different games which is something we like to see rather than scoring in bunches. The Gills have only conceded 7 so far & Joe Martin & Matt Fish have been really impressive at the full back positions working hard & supporting in attack.

Oxford have just lacked a bit of resilience at times & their forwards Dean Smalley & Tom Craddock aren't likely to strike fear into the Gillingham defence, they have got a bright spark in Alfie Potter though he's got 4 so far this season after returning from a broken ankle. Oxford do have injury problems though with keeper Wayne Brown coming off injured in midweek & Michael Raynes & Lee Cox also substituted. Gillingham will be without suspended duo Danny Jackman & Charlie Allen but have players to cover & getting odds against for them to win here looks a steal. Back Gillingham to prevail at 8/5 with William Hill, we think the Gills are a fair bit superior actually so odds of 25/1 for a 3-0 win are also worth a small wager.

Selections:
Queens Park Rangers to beat West Bromwich Albion at 100/30 (Totesport & Betfred)
Gillingham to beat Oxford United at 8/5 (William Hill)
Gillingham to win 3-0 at 25/1 (Coral & William Hill)

Tremendous Toffees to Topple Paper Baggies

Another weekend of football action is just about upon us & we know that you all want to make money off of the fixtures so you can fill your petrol tanks up but also want to get out & enjoy the clement weather so rather than spending your usual hours of studying in darkened rooms we've done that bit for you & come up with some more top selections. If you've been following recently you'll see that we've been having some great results & although the midweek footy was a mixed bag rather than the perfection we've become accustomed to, we reckon we'll be bouncing right back here as we look to make hay whilst the sun is shining.

(Oxford midfielder Asa Hall has scored 5 in his last 7 games)

Down in League Two, Oxford United host Morecambe at the Kassam Stadium, Oxford (who we tipped pre season at 3/1 for promotion) are in the play-off places & are looking to push towards the automatic spots whilst Morecambe are in mid-table. Oxford have won three of their last four league games with the latest being a 2-0 away victory at Accrington Stanley on Tuesday night & have a solid home record this season with ten wins out of 19 games & only two defeats. Recently at home they are unbeaten in their last seven & have won three in a row against AFC Wimbledon, Rotherham & leaders Swindon Town. Visitors Morecambe have had mixed form recently & they have lost four of their last seven league games, they do have a decent overall away record but have only picked up 6 points out of a possible 18 in their last six away matches. We expect Oxford to be too strong for Morecambe & push towards the automatic positions at the best price of 4/6 with BetVictor & Coral.

(Tom Ince has come on leaps & bounds for Blackpool & offers a credible goal threat)

Blackpool host Southampton in a Championship clash that is to be televised on BBC Two on Staurday evening & the bookies seem to be underestimating the likelihood of this being a goal filled encounter by offering odds of 8/11 on there being over 2.5 goals. In Blackpool's last 17 league games there have only been only two with less than 3 goals in & they've only failed to score once in that sequence, with the evergreen Kevin Phillips still proving himself to be the most naturally gifted English finisher since Gary Lineker. Many more of Southampton's games have tended to have less than three goals in (7 of the last 10 have been under) but that reflects the fact that teams tend to try to contain the deserving league leaders & their excellent partnership at the front of Lallana & Lambert, even Billy Sharp has started to get in on the action, predictably scoring a brace past former club Doncaster last week. Blackpool boss Ian Holloway doesn't tend to behave like most other managers though & with the TV cameras on he's likely to tell his players to go out & show their best quality which is in attack, that could mean a really entertaining game & plenty of goals. We were expecting odds more like 8/15 or 1/2 about the over 2.5 goals bet so that 8/11 looks very juicy indeed, with plenty of attacking threat from both sides & players like Tom Ince keen to impress expect a cracking game with a few goals thrown in too & take the bet!

(New signing Nikica Jelavic has made the switch to Premier League football look easy so far)

In the Premiership, Everton entertain West Bromwich Albion at Goodison Park, Everton are in the midst of a typical season finishing strongly after a slow start & are on the tail of Merseyside rivals Liverpool whilst West Brom need a few more points to guarantee safety again. The Toffees are in fine form currently with four victories & two draws in their last eight league games plus a 2-0 away victory over Sunderland in the FA Cup to book a Wembley semi-final trip. Deadline day signings Steven Pienaar & striker Nikica Jelavic have added some much needed attacking flair & goals to an already solid defensive unit based around Jagielka & Distin with the added attacking threat of Baines down the left. At home Everton have won three of their last four matches with impressive victories over Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea & Manchester City. West Brom were blown away in the first 30 minutes last weekend by Newcastle United in a 3-1 defeat & that extents their winless streak to three matches, away from home they have lost five games so far & more worrying they have conceded at least one goal in 93% of their matches. We believe that Everton will continue their fine form at the expense of West Brom at a standout price of 20/23 at BetVictor.

Selections:
Oxford United to beat Morecambe at 4/6 (BetVictor/Coral)
Blackpool v Southampton at 8/11 (various)
Everton to beat West Brom at 20/23 (BetVictor)