Red Devils can make it Hell for Real

Champions League football returns for the deciding legs of the first knockout round & we're liking Tuesday night's games as they look to hold some value for the home sides as Borussia Dortmund host Shakhtar Donetsk & Man United take on Real Madrid at Old Trafford.

Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk

This tie between German champions (for the last two years) Borussia Dortmund & their Ukranian counterparts Shakhtar is sitting balanced at 2-2 but there's good reason to believe that Dortmund will be able to outclass & outpower Shakhtar now back here in the Westfalenstadion.

(Mats Hummels & Neven Subotic provide Dortmund's defensive platform)

Dortmund already hold an advantage with two away goals but that doesn't mean they are likely to sit back as they have some of Europe's most exciting & coveted attacking talent in their fluid front three of Marco Reuss, Mario Gotze & lethal striker Robert Lewandoski. Bayern Munich may be running away with the league this term but Dortmund are still 2nd & they've only lost 4 matches in the league so far, with the aforementioned three players all in double figures for goals & Polish midfielder Jakub Blaszczykowski too. Blaszcykowski has really stepped up on the offensive front this season & it looks like he'll contribute to an all-out offensive against Shakhtar who just aren't used to this quality in their national league where they've won 18 of 19 games this season in a cakewalk.

Shakhtar have some fine players themselves with ex-Arsenal forward, the 'Brazilian-Croatian' Eduardo a constant pacey menace up front along with 'Brazilian-Brazilian' Luiz Adriano alongside, they did lose star midfielder Willian (who scored twice vs Chelsea) to the big-spending Russian club Anzhi though. We also like their captain the Croatian Darijo Srna who scored with a free kick in the first leg, he can operate either at right back or further up the pitch & is dependable & dangerous in equal measure. The goalkeeper Andriy Pyatov also looks decent from what we saw of him at the European Championships for Ukraine but overall the side will struggle to match-up against Dortmund. They don't just have to worry about the German side's attacking players but also their strength in central defence where they have two of the best young centre backs in football with Subotic & Hummels, Hummels excelled for Germany in the Euros & is sought after by several of the elite sides in Europe. Shakhtar Donetsk needed to win in their home leg to progress in this one & they could find it tough going as their domestic season has only just started again after the long winter break.

Dortmund have already beaten Real Madrid & Manchester City at home & they are serious teams (even though City haven't got the hang of European football yet!) so to get odds of 8/13 about them winning in 90 minutes here looks a gift. It may be that the bookies reckon they won't go all out if they are drawing 0-0 or 1-1 as that will take them through but manager Jurgen Klopp will not want to see it that finely balanced & we can see a clear win in this one.

Manchester United vs Real Madrid

We've already tipped Man United to go qualify over Real Madrid & we're not about to abandon the English champions-elect now as they look to take their outstanding domestic form into this game & beat Madrid who sit just 3rd in the Spanish league.

(Xabi Alonso & Ronaldo are key players United need to stop for Madrid)

It's not easy to predict the starting lineup for United although it seems almost certain van Persie & Rooney will start plus Welbeck too after his important contribution in the first leg, it would also be good to see Kagawa given the start again after his hat-trick on Saturday, particularly bearing in mind the difficulty he caused in the Real defence first time around with his runs in behind even though he didn't have a great game. Regardless of who starts for United they will be set up with the express intention of stopping former Old Trafford hero Cristiano Ronaldo whilst also trying to create chance themselves & whilst that obviously isn't easy Ferguson is surely the manager most capable of finding a way to stop the Portuguese menace - we wouldn't be surprised to find out that Phil Jones' injury miraculously clears up in time or even that Wayne Rooney gets asked to do a number on Ronaldo!

United's achievements this year, in particularly in the last two to three months have been a team effort, van Persie of course has been excellent but it has been difficult to criticise any player, save for Antonio Valencia, in recent games as everyone has been dependable most of the time with individuals stepping up as needed. It's different approach from that of Madrid who still give the impression of 11 individuals & that's why they sit so far off Barcelona in the league as individuals can't gain the consistency of a true team of players. Real have certainly hit form recently with two wins against Barcelona (who are in their worst run of form in years) in the past week & they are probably capable of a better one-off performance than United but there's no guarantee of that on Tuesday. United have been outstanding for months having not lost a meaningful game since November, winning 14 of 16 league games (drawing away to good sides in Spurs & Swansea) & progressing in the FA Cup - regardless of what's said about English football being in decline, the English league as a whole is no less strong than La Liga after Barcelona are taken out of the equation.

Madrid will certainly be feeling good after those two Barcelona victories but they won't see themselves as the favourites that the bookies do, a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu was a victory for United & now they hold home advantage which is important in domestic games but a bigger advantage in European ones. Of course Real could do it, they've some outstanding players & Mesut Ozil could punish United if they allow him space like they did in the first leg but Madrid have already lost 5 times away in the league so taking United at a huge price of 23/10 to win looks the best option here. It is exceptionally rare to see Man United at that kind of price at home & it's time to start believing that they may be as good as their points total looks, with de Gea stepping up in goal & Evans responding superbly to being given a new long-term contract they have the steel at the back to support the sparkle at the front & can beat Mourinho's slightly flaky 'Galacticos'!

(Nani is a difference maker)

Talking of 'sparkle' we think that United's most 'twinkly-toed' Michael Jackson & Cristiano Ronaldo impersonator Nani may be the best bet for first goalscorer at 14/1, he has struggled with injury & form for most of the season but came off the bench in the first half against Reading last week & took the game by the scruff of the neck just like Ronaldo used to. This could be the game where Nani puts himself to another level, we all know he has the skills & if Ferguson puts him into this game he will relish it - it's a big 'if' so wait until the teams are announced then have a little punt.

Selections:
Borussia Dortmund to beat Shakhtar Donetsk at 8/13 (General)
Manchester United to beat Real Madrid at 23/10 (Bet365)
Nani to score first at 14/1 (Blue Square & 888Sport) - if he's in the starting XI

Champions League - United say bring it on Mourinho

Lovely, a little bit of the best club competition in the world this week as the Champions League returns & we've got previews of Tuesday's two games plus a fancy over two legs for the Real Madrid vs Manchester United tie.

Celtic vs Juventus

Celtic have already done magnificently well to qualify from their group containing European masters Barcelona  & they now take on another heavyweight in Juventus.

(Big man Fraser Forster will be hard to beat in Celtic's goal)

Neil Lennon's men have managed to get fired up for their Champions League games so far (they're by far & away the only big games they face nowadays thanks to Rangers demotion) & they were unbeaten at home in their group including when holding Barcelona to a nil-nil draw & they're unlikely to opt for an expansive approach here. Fraser Forster, their giant young English goalkeeper, has been in top form this season & he'll be protected by a decent defence including the outstanding left back Emilio Izaguirre. That solid base means Celtic are comfortable with teams coming on to them & they'll have to be as Juventus will have a lot of the ball thanks to Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings.

Juve also have ex-Man United youngster Paul Pogba establishing himself as a player of real talent & potential & he'll provide the battling qualities they'll need here. Juventus however don't have a striker on their books who can strike fear into opposition defences like other top clubs in Europe do, with no one player having scored more than 10 this season & they've recently signed veteran Nicolas Anelka but he's not made an appearance yet & he may not play here.

We expect the Old Lady will come through over two legs but they are pragmatic & would not view a draw as a bad result as they'll have a lot of confidence that they can overpower the SPL side back in Turin, bearing in mind Celtic are very hard to beat at Celtic Park the 11/4 on offer about a draw is too big a price to miss.

Valencia vs Paris Saint-Germain

This has the potential to be an exciting tie with Valencia doing well in their qualifying group & having star striker Robert Soldado scoring freely this season whilst free-spending PSG have assembled a great attacking squad & have started to really leave their mark on their domestic league.

(Lucas Moura is maybe PSG's most exciting talent)

Valencia, like so many other Spanish clubs, remain in a precarious financial situation & they changed managers at the beginning of December with ex-Rafa Benitez assistant Mauricio Pellegrino taking up the head coach reins for the first time in his career. They play some nice attacking football with the option to be quie direct with Robert Soldado an excellent focal point & also play some more intricate stuff through the likes of the Brazilian Jonas & the technically sound Tino Costa. That attacking play can though sometimes come at a cost defensively & they've shipped 35 goals in La Liga so far, twice conceding 5 in a single game this season. Full backs Cissokho & Pereira are better going forwards than at defending whilst there is not a settled first choice keeper at the moment with Alves & Vicente Guaita fighting over the number one shirt.

PSG really are an interesting case, their lack of Champions League experience as a club should limit their potential according to established thinking yet they smashed their way through the group stage & have some incredibly exciting talents at the club (obviously not including David 'stunt signing' Beckham!). Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a fine footballer, & is now more appreciated here in the UK, & is ably supported in attack by Ezequiel Lavezzi who played so well for Napoli along with Edison Cavani last season. The player who most interests us though is the incredibly talented Brazilian youngster Lucas Moura who was bought before the start of the season but loaned straight back to Sao Paulo before joining up with the French club this January. Moura really is a unique talent as you'll see in the video above & this could be the game where he shows why he cost around 45 million euros.

The French league have certainly given PSG every chance of success in this one by scheduling their Ligue 1 game last Friday, just a couple of days after the international friendlies but meaning they've had a lot of time to prepare for this game. PSG are strong favourites to win over two legs so to see odds of 2/1+ for them to win here looks a little on the big side when you consider their big 15 points haul in their qualifying group, put your trust in them to put on a show of attacking brilliance & put this to bed before the return match.

Real Madrid vs Manchester United

This is a monster of a game with the two biggest club sides in the world facing off against each other & some of football's biggest personalities to boot, you'll see plenty of pictures of the Portugese pair of Jose Mourinho & the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo but this could just be the last we see of them in this season's competition...

(Cristiano Ronaldo would be the greatest in any other era - WHY MESSI??!!!)

In terms of man for man players Madrid would seemingly be able to play United off the park if reputations were all that mattered with the likes of Ronaldo, Ozil, Khedira, Alonso, Benzema, Higuain, Sergio Ramos, Modric & di Maria but it takes more than names & individuals to make a great team & Real are not quite that. There are some serious internal issues at Madrid with apparent divisions between the large Portugese contingent & the Spanish players with reports that Sergio Ramos & popular keeper Ilker Casillas had issued a warning to the club president that players would be looking to leave in the Summer if Mourinho wasn't removed. It's all led to Real being far off the pace in the league & although they can of course come up with ace performances (they should be able to with that list of talent) they have at times looked off the pace & sloppy & were just dreadful at Granada last week when losing 1-0 to a Ronaldo on goal. Madrid are without top keeper Casillas through injury for both games & that's a worry when backup Antonio Adan has only played for them 7 times & is coming up against a United strikeforce that have the highest chance conversion rate in the Premier League.

(Rafael da Silva has been in fine form this season, especially in recent games)

United are all about the team & although they clearly have outstanding individuals they are arguably greater than the sum of their parts & Ferguson continues to prove he's a shrewd tactical manager - maybe something he doesn't get credited for as much as his other skills. The key in this game is to stop Cristiano Ronaldo & don't be surprised to see someone do a man marking job but there's reason to believe he could have troubles anyway as Rafael is turning into a fine player, adding in the defensive skills & decision making to complement his tremendous attacking threat. Gary Neville giving him Sky Sports' man of the match award this Sunday was a nice touch & the ex-United right back will have done so with one eye on giving him added confidence for this game. With van Persie up front the Red Devils always pose a potent threat & Wayne Rooney & the emerging Shinji Kagawa can expose any chinks in the Madrid defence - they definitely exist. At the other end of the pitch Nemanja Vidic is getting back to full fitness & making a big difference in the heart of the defence whilst David de Gea is also improving, his shot stopping skills have never been in doubt & that could be decisive with Ronaldo's shoot on sight policy.

You'll read & hear a lot about Real being a long way off Barcelona in the league & looking very unlikely to catch them so they'll be super pumped for this Champions League game but that's too much of trying to turn a negative into a positive - they're way behind because of their inconsistency & the fact they aren't as good as the sum of their parts. We've noted previously that United are on for an enormous points haul in the league & their play has been underestimated this season, with the 2nd leg of this tie at Old Trafford that's a significant advantage & we genuinely believe they should be odds on to qualify - they aren't so instead take great odds of 6/4 for Ferguson's men to go through to the quarter finals. You likely won't get another chance to back Robin van Persie to score 1st at odds as big as 7/1 all season so take them, he's United's far likeliest scorer as Rooney will drop off the front because his work rate further back is too useful in these big European games.

Selections:
Celtic & Juventus to draw at 11/4 (Stan James)
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Valencia at 11/5 (BetVictor, Stan James & William Hill)
Manchester United to qualify over Real Madrid at 6/4 (Coral)
Robin van Persie to score first at 7/1 (Various)

Reds on Devilishly Difficult Road to Wembley

The world's oldest cup competition gets underway for 'real' this weekend as the top flight clubs join the action in the 3rd round of the FA cup & we're picking out our fancies for outright glory plus a home double for Saturday. We're also taking our customary look at a lower league game & think we've picked a real banker in League One this time.

The FA Cup

The FA Cup has probably lost some of its lustre since 90s & eras before it but what hasn't changed has been the dominance of 4 teams who've taken 22 of the last 26 competitions between them - Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester United have each taken the Cup 6 times in this period with Liverpool 4 time winners. This dominance goes to show how the teams with the stronger squads consistently achieve success & how rarely a 'lucky' run can lead to a win, for that reason it is worth concentrating on the top few sides in the betting.

(Chelsea are the current holders & should put a bold bid in to retain)

Chelsea have been the recent masters of the cup, taking it 4 times in the past 6 years & they're being respected in the betting as 3rd favourites at 15/2 & they certainly tend to punish weaker teams & have a squad with a huge amount of depth. Chelsea are still way off the pace in the league with three good teams (Spurs, Arsenal & Everton) all pushing for a top 4 spot along with them & bearing in mind they only finished 6th last season it's not a guarantee they'll do it this time so Rafa Benitez's men may find themselves preoccupied with more prescient problems when the later cup rounds come along.

Liverpool have a great cup pedigree & they're probably the most interesting of the sides at a double figure price (11/1 in places), they still don't have any real consistency though & are hugely over reliant on Luis Suarez & inspirational skipper Steven Gerrard - it's no surprise that his recent upturn in form has led to the Reds looking considerably better in recent games. Daniel Sturridge has been brought in to take some pressure of off Suarez but he's not a proven Premier League goalscorer yet & there are too many questions about Liverpool compared to a few teams at odds only a few points shorter.

Manchester City are outright favourites for the competition but this has been a pretty bad season after winning the league last year & it's threatening to turn disastrous. They're 7 points off of the top of the table & were outclassed as they were knocked out of the Champions League at the group stage for the 2nd year in a row, Mancini must be under pressure after the huge investment at the club & the huge demands that entails, he's seemingly increasingly erratic as evidenced by his explosive training ground bust up with the mild mannered (ahem) Mario Balotelli & the whole club will suffer whilst storming midfielder Yaya Toure is off at the Africa Cup of Nations. They've got to put everything into chasing United in the league & the owners may also demand a real challenge in the Europa League meaning the club may end up stretched with their squad not quite having the depth throughout that some assume.

('Goal Machine' Patrice Evra embodies the attacking ethos of the current Man United squad)

At odds of 7/1 the best bet looks to be City's cross-city rivals Manchester United who've assembled a squad of incredible attacking depth & talent & have maybe not got the credit they deserve for what has been a great first half to their season. United are on course for 94 points in the league if they carry on gaining points at the same rate & that's only been bettered once in a 38 game season (Chelsea 2004-05) & they went through top of their Champions League group with no fuss at all. Robin van Persie has of course been the most visible catalyst of United's improved attacking play but there seems to be a real change in the ethos of the club with them becoming maybe as attacking focused as at anytime under Ferguson's reign. That's some statement as the club has nearly always been positive but they're now dynamic in nearly every game with Scholes & Giggs eventually being somewhat sidelined it has meant more pace & whilst Tom Cleverley is far from a great player his movement & play further up the pitch has meant their attacking fullbacks in Rafael & the recently rejuvenated Patrice Evra have been able to terrorise opposing defences. Evra has clearly been under instruction from Ferguson to get further forward & like many of the best fullbacks of the past 20 years he isn't necessarily the best defender but by going back to his style of play from 2 years back & further it has paid dividends for him & the team in terms of goals & chances created. Shinji Kagawa's & Nemanja Vidic's returns to fitness should make them even stronger & they've even shrugged off the absence of Wayne Rooney in recent games. The treble may be beyond them (particularly with Barcelona & Bayern awaiting in Europe) but they can bag a league & cup double so get on the best team at 7/1 - they've a tricky tie at West Ham this weekend but if they can edge past the Hammers they'll surely be favourites.

FA Cup 3rd round double

This is going to be fairly short as we feel the merits of these two selections should be fairly clear to all yet return odds better than Evens when doubled up.

Leicester City are the first bet as they take on League Two outfit Burton Albion in their Kingpower Stadium, the Foxes have a rock solid defence, conceding the fewest in the Championship, & their attack has begun to click into gear as evidenced by a 6-1 win against Huddersfield last time out. Burton are on the cusp of the playoff places in League Two & although this is a big day out for them it isn't a 'huge' one against a top flight team & they will be far more focused on continuing that playoff push than necessarily getting carried away & putting everything into their effort here. Burton's away form in their league campaign also hasn't been strong - they sit 19th of 24 on away results alone & that doesn't auger well for a trip to a team two divisions higher. Nigel Pearson seems an astute manager & he'll rest players that he needs to for Leicester after the busy festive period but he's a strong squad here & we can see hime giving Martyn Waghorn a start & the young Englishman can cause all sorts of problems in the Burton defence. The odds may be short at 1/3 but they should reflect Leicester's likely dominance of this game, it's hard to see their defence troubled & they'll surely score at least once & most likely more for a comfortable win.

(Hugo Rodallega's power could prove too much for Blackpool)

We also like the chances of Fulham to put their recent league form behind them & take care of opponents from a lower division in the shape of Blackpool. Fulham have only won twice in their last 13 league games but in that run they did gain draws against good sides in Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea & we can't see them getting dragged down into a relegation scrap as the season draws in. Fulham do have a few issues that need to be dealt with in the medium to long term with an aged defence but they've enough options going forwards to be able to rest players here & still pose a potent threat to Blackpool who aren't renowned for their resolute defending. Hugo Rodallega should get the chance to start for Fulham & fellow Berbatov understudy Mladen Petric could also be set to feature as he gets back to fitness, with other players such as Kieran Richardson & Kerim Frei looking for the start they should have a lot of quality even if their star player Dimitar Berbatov should be rested as seems likely. Blackpool haven't been in great from themselves with 5 wins in 22 league games & although they could have been fancied if this was at home with Fulham's poor away record it seems a lot less likely they'll get something at the Cottage. Fulham will be feeling all the better for a great win away at West Brom & their fans will be right up for this as the cup offers an outside chance at trophy glory, double up the odds of 7/10 with Leicester so a £20 double returns £45.33 at BetVictor.

Doncaster Rovers vs Colchester United

Down in League One, Doncaster Rovers entertain Colchester United at the Keepmoat Stadium. Doncaster up in 3rd spot will see this as the perfect fixture to put behind them the disappointment of letting a two goal slip against fellow highflyers Sheffield United on New Year's Day.

(Kyle Bennett offers a pacey threat for Doncaster)

Doncaster felt harshly dealt with against Sheffield United after a dominant display was undone by a couple of questionable refereeing decision which gifted Sheffield Utd a late penalty & also a way back into the match & then a straight red card to striker Billy Paynter brought about a 89 minute equaliser. Despite this setback they will be happy with the performance for 80 minutes & are still full of confidence after five wins in their last eight league games. Rovers' away form has been sensational with nine wins from 13 games & Dean Saunders like be looking for them to improve on their five wins at home to push towards automatic promotion, starting here.

Visitors Colchester United are in dire straights currently with the worst current form in the league with nine defeats & only one victory in their last ten league games with their only rest bite coming with a postponement against Swindon Town. After a comprehensive 3-0 defeat against Crawley Town it's now seven straight league defeats which has seen them slip to 20th position & only two points outside the drop zone. They have also failed to score in four of their last five games & it's difficult to see where their next goal is coming from let alone points.

Doncaster's odds look too big at 3/4 with BetVictor who continue to price up football games ultra competitively against the opposition firms, Colchester are in freefall & Doncaster have the weapons to hurt any side in the league.

Selections:
Fulham to beat Blackpool at 7/10 & Leicester to beat Burton at 1/3 double (BetVictor at odds slightly bigger than 6/5)
Doncaster Rovers to beat Colchester United at 3/4 (BetVictor)

Manchester United to win FA Cup outright at 7/1 (BetVictor)

Right Wing Devils but still better than the Villains

We just love Saturdays at the minute with 7 winning bets from 8 main selections at odds of 11/5 (double of 4/5 & 8/11), 6/5, 11/10, 11/10, 8/11, 6/5 & Evens. We're always pretty selective with our tipping as we think that even if you're successful it does take something away when you put selections up every day but hopefully we can come up with another perfect set of picks on the day of the week every gambler loves best! Remember you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above or finding us on there & by doing so you'll keep up to date with notifications about the blog & be able to join in the sports & betting conversation.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Sometimes it pays to keep things simple & this looks a penalty kick (hopefully not taken by Wayne Rooney...) for United here as they look to maintain their position at the summit of the Premier League table. Villa managed their second win of the season with a gutsy 1-0 win at Sunderland last week but this looks altogether tougher against Ferguson's side who've now won 8 of their last 9 in the league scoring 26 goals in the process & they should have too much firepower for Villa to compete.

(Along with Valencia, Rafael has been wreaking havoc down the right)

A lot has been made of how often United have fallen behind in games but Villa's offense is so impotent they may not trouble the back four that have now been playing together for some time since Vidic's injury & looked to have Arsenal's offense completely shut down on Saturday. United have actually scored plenty of early goals themselves with their new star Robin van Persie having scored in the first half in 5 league games already. Being on the road doesn't bother United either with them having won all 4 since their opening day loss to Everton & they should play on the front foot from the start here.

Villa have only scored more than one goal on one occasion & although their defence is pretty sound they've only played Everton & Spurs out of the teams you could consider the better in the league & their inexperienced full backs Matt Lowton & Joe Bennett could have their hands full with United's wingers & the overlapping Rafael & Evra. United are getting a lot of success scoring from crosses & passes from the wide areas but can hurt from the middle too. The 4/7 about a United win looks more than fair but for better odds look for them to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 11/8.

Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City

Blackburn & their fans haven't had the easiest couple of years with their idiosyncratic Indian owners at the helm but the Rovers faithful got what they wanted with Steve Kean's sacking & now have their first home game with new boss & ex-player Henning Berg in charge, coming up against a pretty mediocre Birmingham side.

(Blackburn's 'old man' Morten Gamst Pedersen still has a quality delivery)

Lee Clark has come in as Birmingham manager but hasn't really got his ragtag squad firing whilst going forward & they rank joint 3rd worst in terms of goals with just 17 in 15 games & lost to bottom of the league Ipswich last Saturday. They did win at Bristol City on Tuesday but they were themselves in 23rd place & this a tougher assignment against a Blackburn side that retain a lot of good players considering the upheaval at the club. Their big summer signing was powerful young striker Jordan Rhodes & he's starting to hit his stride, scoring in 3 of their last 5 games. Rovers have also got a decent enough defence & rank joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded - it would be better if they hadn't conceded 3 in consecutive games against Leeds & Bristol City (losing neither).

With what promises to be a full house at Ewood Park Blackburn should really push forwards in this one against Birmingham who have looked woeful at times (particularly the 5-0 loss to Barnsley & the recent Ipswich game). Even with losing to red-hot Palace & drawing once getting 2-1 up against Huddersfield, Rovers are still in the playoff places whilst Birmingham languish close to the relegation zone so take the 21/20 for a Blackburn win.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Aston Villa HT/FT at 11/8 (Stan James)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Birmingham City at 21/20 (BetVictor & Stan James)

Monday Night Football - Rampant Reds Ready to Roll

We love a bit of Monday Night Football, especially when we end up with a double dose thanks to NFL action from the states too, but for now we're quite happy seeing it kick off between two of the Premier League's best teams in Everton & Manchester United.

(Top midfielder Marouane Fellaini is starting his 5th season with Everton)

We've gone for Everton as our winners on the handicap in the league this season (+28 point headstart) & think they've done some shrewd business this year by holding onto their best players whilst allowing a fading Tim Cahill to leave for America & picking up a wad of cash for an injury prone youngster in Jack Rodwell. The permanent signing of Steven Pienaar is a big positive & Steven Naysmith will link up well with Jelavic after already forming a partnership with the big man at Rangers, they've further bolstered their frontline with the signing of Kevin Mirallas from Olympiakos but he's signed too late to be involved against United. So you'll see that we've a lot of time for Everton this year........ yet we still think that Manchester United are the team to side with here. Everton consistently fail to start well enough, season after season, & while we think their season mightn't be as lopsided as last year (lost 6 of first 10 & only 2 of last 18), they have one of the toughest starts available here.

(Shinji Kagawa - The Whole F'N Show)

United have also gone about improving their attacking options with the signing of last year's top scorer & deserved player of the season Robin van Persie plus the hugely exciting talent that is Shinji Kagawa frrom Borussia Dortmund. Some have commented that attack wasn't necessarily the part of the team that needed upgrading for United & it is certainly worrying that a central midfielder hadn't been signed in 5 years before Nick Powell's arrival, we're not of the same opinion as the pundits (Jamie Redknapp ahem) that Michael Carrick & Paul Scholes are the answers to all of the world's ills! Regardless of central midfield Alex Ferguson has so many quality attacking players to choose from that we can see United coming out & blitzing Everton from all angles as players look to impress with so much competition in those positions. It's conceivable that Wayne Rooney could end dropping deeper than ever as van Persie will likely be the most advanced forward, Valencia, Nani & Young will vie for the wide positions & Kagawa could end up playing close behind the Dutch forward. Coral are going a standout 12/1 for Kagawa to net first (he's a short as 15/2 elsewhere) & that looks a little big for a player that netted 12 in 28 games in his first season for Dortmund & then 17 times last year. Kagawa's scored twice in pre season (Rooney was the only other to get two) & generally looked lively, being involved in most of United's best attacking moments & has the potential to be the outright signing of the season.

(Best in the business - Nemanja Vidic returns from injury for United)

The other big positive for United this year is the return of Nemanja Vidic to the fold after 8 months out with a cruciate ligament injury, the Serb is one of the world's very best centre halves & young keeper David de Gea should really benefit with him in front of him, especially when it comes to corners & set pieces. The latest news for United is worrying though with Rio Ferdinand unlikely to play with a reported groin injury, that could mean Carrick dropping back or a youngster (Michael Keane or Frederic Veseli) starting as Smalling, Jones & Evans are all unready for the start of the season. Whoever starts with Vidic will at least have the best partner available, he'll marshal the defence well & is better at that role than when the same has to be done with Ferdinand. It certainly won't be easy for United but they finished 33 points clear of the Toffees last season which gives an indication of the gap between the two teams in quality & in the first half of last season the Red Devils only dropped points twice on their travels with draws at Stoke & Liverpool - odds of 10/11 for a Manchester United victory look fair.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Everton at 10/11 (general)
Shinji Kagawa to score first at 12/1 (Coral)

Clash of the Manchester Titans - City v United

Monday night sees what is for all intents & purposes a Premier League title decider as Manchester City host Manchester United at the Etihad in maybe the biggest domestic game of football in the last ten years. Will United's old guard, so full of experience & with mantelpieces full of winners medals already be able to keep the hungry upstarts, backed by billions at bay? We've had a look at the fixture & tried to find a few betting angles in what will be an engrossing fixture for even neutrals who haven't had a punt. The football season is drawing to a close & we'll soon be concentrating more on the flat racing season, we had 3 winners from 3 picks on Sunday & you can keep up to date with the latest posts by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney either click the Follow button above or find us on there.

(Ferguson & Mancini will be going into tactical battle in this one)

Sir Alex Ferguson summed up how difficult it is to call the result of this match when noting that his United side were coming here to the Etihad with the league's best away record only to face up against City who have the league's best home record, the Citizens are unbeaten here all season & have only dropped points the once when drawing 3-3 with Sunderland at the end of last month. That game against Sunderland has rather symbolised City over the past couple of months with them looking out of that game & the title race only to continue to battle right to the end & drag themselves right back into things with every chance of getting the win. Carlos Tevez's return has been a catalyst for City's very recent impressive form, with him & fellow Argentinian Sergio Aguero really striking up the type of partnership that was anticipated & eagerly hoped for by City at the start of the season. The City strikeforce is backed up by a superb mix of solidity & style in midfield with Gareth Barry & Yaya Toure controlling many games between them this year & giving the ball to players such as Silva, Milner, Johnson & Nasri who can provide the openings for the strikers. It's often said that the midfield battle is where games are won & you'd have to worry for United if they played with the same setup seen in the last few weeks with a pretty much orthodox 4-4-2. Paul Scholes & Michael Carrick were simply bullied & overrun against Everton at times last week & Ferguson will surely stick another player into the centre to help them out, that could be Wayne Rooney but that would leave them a little light up front with Hernandez, courtesy of a hot run back in October/November the only other player with double figures in league goals. It seems unlikely that Hernandez will be starting in this one though, some of his recent displays have been of a very low quality with poor link up play & getting caught offside on numerous occasions, instead Danny Welbeck could be trusted to lead the line on his own, the young Englishman has been adding more consistency to his displays but now needs to start adding the goals that will see him become a feared striker.

(Nani was checking his usual bad self with an excellent offensive performance last week & looks to have earned himself a new contract at United)

After United conceded four against Everton a last Sunday an awful lot was written & said about a 'dodgy defence' but that may be a little unfair as they've conceded the 2nd least amount of goals in the league (32) behind only City (25) & if you took out the extraordinary 4-4 last weekend & the incredible 6-1 in the reverse fixture then they would have looked outstanding, in the league at least. United have 17 clean sheets from 35 games so there isn't anything fundamentally wrong defensively & that's with missing arguably the world's best centre back in Nemanja Vidic for most of the season. Rafael remains a worry at right back as he seems to lack composure at times & has a questionable temperament & City may target him here, Ferdinand & Evans sometimes look a little ill at ease with burly old fashioned centre forwards but may be more comfortable against the technically excellent Tevez & Aguero. City's defence has been magnificent, especially at home where they've conceded just 10 goals all season & it looks like Micah Richards will be fit & ready to replace Zabaleta after missing their last two games. City have won their last three games & only conceded once in that little run when beating Norwich 6-1 but when you take a look at the opposition they have faced two promoted teams including woeful Wolves away from home & a limited West Brom side at home, before that they had gone on a run of 5 games with just one win (2-1 against Chelsea) so it would be unwise to take too much from the last three. City looked pensive at times against Wolves last weekend & although never in danger of conceding it was maybe illustrative of Mancini's dilemma here, do they go all out for the win from the start, do they push on if they get a lead?

(Carlos Tevez will be looking to make a point against his former club & to his current employers)

The game really is a tough one to call for either team & we're not going to, City's recent form has probably been overplayed & so have United's defensive frailties, at the same time it's difficult to imagine a goalless draw as City have had only one all year (at West Brom) & United haven't had one at all. The draw is available at 5/2 & don't worry about Ferguson saying United always go for the win, that's nonsense as anyone who saw the Blackburn game at the end of last season will testify, Ferguson is the ultimate pragmatist & will happily settle for the draw that would put his side in the driving seat. We said we don't like a 0-0 result so how about 1-1 instead, the price for that is 13/2 with several firms & we're huge fans of Carlos Tevez's footballing ability - it seems the script is written for him to score here, back him to score first & the 1-1 draw at 40/1 in a scorecast.

Selections:
Manchester City v Manchester United to draw at 5/2 (various)
1-1 correct score at 13/2 (various)
Tevez 1-1 scorecast at 40/1

Europa League - Schalke's Strikers to Shoot them to glory

Normally the Europa League doesn't hold too much interest for English football fans but only two years ago Fulham made the final with Liverpool in the other semi final & this year sees giants Manchester United in this competition rather than fighting out the Champions League latter stages as usual. United are joined in the knockout stage by title rivals Manchester City & 1970s throwbacks Stoke City bring their unique style to the continent, there are some good bets to be had this Thursday night plus we're looking at an outright winner as well.

(Porto's new signing from Brazilian club Santos, Danilo looks quite a player)

Manchester City's Champions league campaign failed to ignite in a tough group also containing German powerhouses Bayern Munich & a useful Napoli side, City performed creditably at home with two wins (one against a weakened Bayern side) & a draw but their only points away from home came against hapless & pointless Villareal & City face a daunting away trip to opponents F.C. Porto in this first knockout round of the Europa League. Porto are the current holders of this cup, gaining that victory under previous coach Andre Villas-Boas & have an arguably stronger squad than last season as they sold star forward Radamel Falcao for 40m Euros but retained most of the rest of the team (although Falcao's fellow Colombian Fredy Guarin has just joined Inter on loan with an option for a permanent move). Porto have bolstered their squad with Steven Defour & Eliaquim Mangala from Standard Liege plus have brought in two of Brazil's brightest defensive talents in Alex Sandro & Danilo, Danilo a midfielder & right back signed in the January transfer window looks to have all the attributes needed to be a world star. The Portuguese league isn't known for being ultra competitive, Porto won without losing a match last year, but they've still only conceded 12 goals in their 18 games so far, although they trail Benfica by 5 points, showing just how watertight they can be. Up front Hulk continues to be a menace scoring goals himself & getting plenty of assists, he's struck up a decent partnership with fellow Brazilian Kleber & they'll cause City problems here.

City haven't had the greatest runs of form since Christmas, going out of the Cups & drawing away to West Brom & losing away to Sunderland & Everton, in fact their only away wins in the league since 5th November came against rock bottom Wigan & a negative Villa side this past weekend. The Citizens haven't looked nearly so good without Africa Cup of Nations competitors the Toure brothers & will be hoping to have them back as soon as possible after their disappointing loss in the final, they probably won't be back in time for this game though & City still won't have the presence of Yaya driving them forwards from midfield. Although still great at home Mancini's cautiousness means City are unlikely to be too expansive here & would surely settle for a draw, that's dangerous as Porto are a top notch team & although they disappointed in the Champions League they'll look to rally & will want to take a lead to Manchester. Bearing in mind City may settle for a draw we think that Porto at Evens in the draw no bet market is a real tempter & should be backed, they'll need a result here before going to the Etihad next Wednesday.

(How do you stop him scoring? Udinese's 34 year old phenomenon Antonio Di Natale)

Udinese weren't able to qualify for the Champions League after meeting Arsenal in the qualifying rounds but they came through in 2nd place behind a good Atletico Madrid side in their Europa League group with Celtic behind & now they come up against Greek side PAOK Saloniki in their first knockout game. PAOK topped the group containing Tottenham & beat them at White Hart Lane thanks to a lightning fast start, scoring twice in the first quarter of an hour against their hosts who began lethargically & then couldn't ever claw their way back, it does need to be mentioned that Spurs never really seemed to be too concerned with the competition though. PAOK also managed a very creditable draw away to Rubin Kazan which is no mean feat & they are worthy of respect although they are now shorn of star winger Vierinha who moved to Wolfsburg in the transfer window, he was a real goal threat & they'll now have to rely even more heavily on academy product Stefanos Athanasiadis who's managed 4 goals this year in the competition. Udinese lost some of their top players for big prices in the Summer with Alexis Sanchez & Christian Zapata heading to Spain whilst Gokhan Inler moved to Napoli but they've coped admirably & currently sit 4th in Serie A. Veteran & club legend Antonio Di Natale is still banging the goals in at the age of 34, he was on fire with 28 league goals last year & has carried that on in 2011-12. Udinese will be hoping to have the Ghanaians Kwadwo Asamoah & Badu back but even if they don't they should be able to break PAOK down & a price of 4/5 for Udinese to prevail looks too good to be true, PAOK will likely come to defend meaning a win to nil is likely & we like the look of a 2-0 home win at 7/1.

(Things haven't always gone totally to plan for City & Mancini in Europe - why are they favourites?)

In terms of outright winners it seems fair to see Manchester's City & United at the head of the market although we can't quite work out why City are ahead of last year's Champions League finalists especially as they have to first get past a classy Porto side just to progress past the first knockout stage. The worry with having a bet on either of the English sides is whether they'll be treating this competition with enough respect to actually win it, Ferguson used words to the effect that it was a punishment having to play in the Thursday night competition & he has left Patrice Evra, Ryan Giggs & Dimitar Berbatov at home for their first away trip to Ajax although there has been no injury news as of yet. There should be motivation for winning the competition for Ferguson as it is the one trophy that has so far evaded him both with Aberdeen & United & we'd be much keener to back them at the prices, especially given their European pedigree, than Man City, even if Mancini can keep his combustible squad operating it seems difficult to believe they can keep up the pace on two fronts especially now that their rivals are breathing down their necks in the all-important title race.

(Schalke's Raul & Huntelaar may just be the best strike partnership in Europe)

Instead we really like the look of the German side Schalke 04 to take this at odds of 12/1, they won the competition back in its days of the UEFA Cup in 1997 & their free flowing football can prove dangerous to any opponents that face them. Although Schalke faced a bad loss to league rivals Borussia Monchengladbach this past weekend they had previously been on a great run of form losing just twice since 24th September & their strike force of Real Madrid legend Raul & Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has been particularly successful. Huntelaar looks revitalised after not quite living up to expectations at first Real Madrid & then AC Milan, his understanding with Raul is especially impressive with them linking up regularly to torment defences. In home-grown players like wonderkid Julian Draxler & the technically talented Lewis Holtby the strikers get a great service from midfield & Christoph Metzelder provides experience in defence whilst captain Benedikt Howedes looks like he'll end up being a mainstay in central defence for the national side for years to come. The one real worry for last year's Champions League semi-finalists is that starting goalkeeper Ralf Fahrmann has been lost to injury although they've reacted quickly by bringing Timo Hildebrand back to his homeland from Sporting in Portugal. Schalke have great European experience & are likely to take treat this competition with respect & should be able to progress past Czech opponents Viktoria Plzen in this round before really unleashing a charge.

Selections:
Porto to beat Manchester City draw no bet at 10/11 (Betfred & Blue Square)
Udinese to beat PAOK Saloniki at 4/5 (Boylesports, BetVictor & William Hill)
Udinese to beat PAOK Saloniki 2-0 at 7/1 (William Hill)

Schalke to win Europa League outright at 12/1 (Various)

Title Challenge to get Rolling at Old Trafford

 This weekend looks like being highly competitive in the Premier League with only 4 of the 10 games having odds on shots at the best prices, it certainly is tight at the top & not easy to pick winners, we love the lower leagues though & bring two picks from outside of the top flight plus look at the big game between United & Liverpool. As ever you can keep up to date with our postings by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by clicking the button at the top of the page, we love to have a chat & it also means that you can join in with your own picks for our weekly followers' tips blog!

 (Happy soul Antonio Valencia is in top form for United)

The big game of the weekend sees Manchester United host Liverpool at Old Trafford in another renewal of the fiercest rivalry in English football just two weeks after Liverpool came out on top at Anfield in the FA Cup. Both sides have some reason to be optimistic, Liverpool have made it past Man City over two legs to reach the Carling Cup Final & prevailed over United in the FA Cup, their league form has been more ordinary with just one win in 2012 & that came over relegation battlers Wolves. United got over a sticky period where they suffered a particularly bad injury crisis & lost to Newcastle & Blackburn in successive games to have a nice run & other than losing in the cup they've had some good results, only dropping points in the draw with Chelsea. Last Sunday they showed all of their resolve to fight back from 3 goals down at Stamford Bridge & played some nice football, being unlucky to be 1-0 down at half time, they've started slowly after the break in too many games though & again conceded early, Ferguson will be keen to eliminate those lapses. Luis Suarez is back from his ban & could start here after beginning on the bench in the dour draw with Spurs on Monday, he could have won it at the end with a header but once again showed his tendency for wastefulness in front of goal, his all round play has been excellent but just 5 league goals tells its own story.

(Pepe Reina is one of the league's finest & could have his hands full in this one)

Liverpool have a clean slate of injuries & their back four & goalkeeper continue to impress & look as solid as any around, United will likely start with the less than convincing De Gea in goal with Lindegaard out & they clearly miss Nemanja Vidic at the centre of defence, Liverpool may not have the firepower to punish them though as they've only scored two or more in 9 of their 24 league games. United have multiple options up front but seem to have settled on a Welbeck-Rooney combination with the threat of poacher Hernandez to come off the bench when needed, whoever plays should have good service with Valencia in top form & Ashley Young returning to fitness. United still lack the combative qualities that can be key in games like this in the middle of the park but Scholes short retirement seems to have reinvigorated him as he's playing some way above the level he did last year & even Michael Carrick seems to have found some quality & consistency to his game. This could be another tight one but if United can carry forward the momentum of their great comeback last week & feed off the inevitably raucous atmosphere they can make odds of 9/10 look generous, there is a reason for there being 16 points & 5 places between the two sides & the home team can make that superiority show.

(Gaffer Chris Powell - all smiles with Charlton leading League One)

In League One, current leaders Charlton Athletic visit Chesterfield at the B2net stadium. The fixture sees top against bottom with a staggering 41 points between them. Charlton look on course for promotion this season as they hold a nine point gap over 3rd place Huddersfield currently. They are in good current form with four victories in their last five league games (including wins against both the Sheffield clubs). They have a excellent away record so far this season after collecting 35 points from a possible 45 with eleven victories. Hosts Chesterfield have in fairness improved in the recent games with two wins in their last three games but in their last 20 games they have only collected 12 points after suffering twelve defeats. We expect Charlton to show they are a cut above a struggling Chesterfield side at a very reasonable price of 10/11.

(Rovers Eliot Richards will be looking for his third goal in as many games)

In League Two, Bristol Rovers entertain Morecambe at the Memorial Ground, both sides are just below the mid table places and will be hoping for a late assault on the play-off places rather than being dragged into the relegation scrap. The Pirates now have Mark McGhee in charge after an ill fated spell from Paul Buckle who left the club in early January after four defeats in a row. In their last four league matches they have won three including a excellent 2-0 away victory at high flying Cheltenham & drawn one. Visitors Morecambe started the season on fire but have tailed off dramatically in recent months. They are on a run which has seen six defeats, three draws & only one victory in their last ten league games. They have lost two of their last three with a poor home defeat to bottom of the table Northampton. Bristol Rovers can continue their recent revival against Morecambe at the best price of 6/5 with Coral.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Liverpool at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Charlton Athletic to beat Chesterfield at 10/11 (Paddy Power/Coral)
Bristol Rovers to beat Morecambe at 6/5 (Coral)

Summerbee's Suggestions - Manchester Derby

Our friends @stillsportmedia are embarking on an exciting new venture having teamed up with former professional footballer Nicky Summerbee. The ex Manchester City, Sunderland, Swindon Town, Bolton Wanderers, Leicester City, Nottingham Forest and Bradford City player is soon to launch a new website (www.nickysummerbee.co.uk) in conjunction with the South West based business, to find out more about the new website follow Nicky on twitter @Summerbee7 for the latest updates. Still Sports Media kindly arranged for Nicky to predict the outcome of the Manchester Derby in the FA Cup 3rd Round. Click on the video below to see how the Altrincham born midfielder predicts the match will end up.

Manchester City are the current holders after a Yaya Toure goal gave them a narrow 1-0 victory over Stoke City last May & they bid for a sixth FA Cup in their history. They currently lead the Premier League by three points over United & come into the match on the back of a comprehensive 3-0 victory Liverpool after a mini blip of one point in two away games against WBA & Sunderland. They have a perfect record at the Etihad Stadium of ten wins from ten in the league & have scored 31 goals whilst only conceding four. Lets not forget that City have already beaten United in their own backyard 6-1 back in October & will look to tighten their hold over their bitter rivals.

(City are great going forwards & strong at the back, thanks in no small part to Vincent Kompany)

Manchester United have won the FA cup an unrivalled 11 times, but not since 2004. They have reached the semi-finals in three of the last five seasons, and have only suffered defeat once to Leeds Utd in Sir Alex Ferguson's tenure. In the Premiership they have the best away record in the league amassing 23 points from a possible 30 with seven wins, two draws & one defeat. The defeat came earlier this week to Newcastle in a 3-0 hammering & they look likely to be selecting from an unchanged squad for this game with Nemanja Vidic, Ashley Young, Jonny Evans & Chris Smalling all missing.

Thanks again to Nicky for his predictions and Still Sports Media for taking their time out to arrange and film the video.

 (Sheffield Wednesday's returning skipper Rob Jones can aid their FA Cup progress)

Also in the FA Cup Sheffield Wednesday entertain West Ham United at Hillsbrough, Wednesday are 2nd in League One whilst West Ham are joint leaders of the Championship. Wednesday have an unbeaten home record this season with 29 points out of a possible 33 with nine wins & two draws, they've pretty good recent form too having won five of their last 8 league games with only one defeat. It should be an interesting home versus away matchup as West Ham have the best away record in the Championship with seven wins, three draws & three defeats in their 13 games. We're leaning towards the Sheffield side as West Ham are struggling for form of late with three defeats in their last six games & two defeats & one draw in their last three away games. Both sides have promotion as their key objective this year but that doesn't mean that a cup run would be unwelcome, the Owls welcome back skipper Rob Jones whilst West Ham look the more likely to give their fringe players a game with the like of Frank Nouble, Robbie Hall & Dan Potts starting. From purely a value perspective the home side need to backed as this looks likely to be fairly even & Wednesday look to offer the better odds, we're going with Sheffield Wednesday to win at 19/10.

Nicky’s Selections:

Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 11/10 (General)

Manchester City to win 3-1 at 18/1 (Coral)

Our Selection:

Sheffield Wednesday to beat West Ham United at 19/10 (Paddy Power & William Hill)