Potters can ensure City get stuck in mud on way to cup progress

Two out of two wins for us on the football last week (the NFL was not so successful though) with nice wins for Doncaster & Cardiff at decent odds. We've another two selections at odds against for matches from this Saturday's fixture list including a cup match featuring the finalists from 2011. As always you can keep up to date with our latest thoughts & blog updates by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above, our Super Bowl preview will be up soon & we're continuing to provide the winners with regularity.

Stoke City vs Manchester City

In the early FA Cup game of the weekend (12.45 kickoff) overall joint favourites for the cup Man City travel to take on Stoke at the fortress like Britannia Stadium but this is a significant hurdle on the path to Wembley for the Citizens & we've a feeling their odds on status for this one looks a false price.

(Asmir Begovic is a top keeper & can help keep the starry City strikers at bay)

Stoke have encountered a rare rough patch of form in the league recently with three successive losses but those games were far from easy, starting off with a 3-0 loss to today's rivals City at the Etihad, then their only home loss of the season in 90 minutes when two own goals & a missed penalty from Jon Walters contributed to a 4-0 defeat by Chelsea. Last weekend they fell foul to the slick of passing & high in confidence Swansea, they'll feel far better back at home & with the chance to gain vengeance for their 2011 cup final loss to City.
Before this sticky patch Stoke had really been going great guns with 5 wins & 5 draws in an unbeaten league run from early November & even with their lack of goals (22 in 23 games) they remain hard to beat & are the Premier League's draw kings with 11 so far (48%).

The Potters have struggled in recent weeks with injuries at the full back positions & to cover that weakness they may look to pack the midfield & frustrate City who are without key player Yaya Toure & even though they've won 4 in a row in the league that run may be a little less impressive than it looks. The 3-0 win against Stoke was certainly a good result but City looked porous when beating Norwich 4-3, their 2-0 win against Arsenal came after Koscielny was sent off early on & the 2-0 win last week came against Fulham who are in free-fall & are dreadful on the road. You can of course only beat what's put in front of you but we recall that Mancini's men were frustrated & beaten at Sunderland on Boxing Day & had laboured to a last gasp win against Reading before that. Mancini may switch things around in terms of team selection but any potential of weakening would be a mistake against a resolute Stoke side, the best odds look to be for a draw at odds of 11/4.

Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday

In the Championship we see two in-form teams in Charlton & Sheffield Wednesday at the Valley but we reckon this will be the end (at least temporarily) for Wednesday's ascent away from the relegation zone as Chris Powell's men look to turnaround their loss at Hillsborough a month ago.

(Yann Kermorgant can help Charlton dominate the Wednesday midfield)

Charlton have picked up three wins in a row (all by the odd goal) & look to be well clear of the drop zone & could even make a surprise push for a playoff place in the congested division. The Addicks have carried a bit more of an attacking threat in recent games with the goals shared around various players, it's a shame that last year's regular scorer Bradley Wright-Phillips has been unable to reproduce his form at this higher level. Charlton's home form hasn't really been that impressive this year but they have been beaten the leaders Cardiff (in a dramatic 5-4) & 2nd place Leicester so victory agaisnt 4th from bottom Wednesday should be within their scope.

Wednesday had looked like they may be fighting a lost cause up until early December - they'd gone on a losing run of 7 which closely followed a previous run of 7 losses & 2 draws but they've recently been far better with just one loss in 7 (2-0 to Burnley). It's difficult to ascertain where this improvement has come from as new signings haven't happened & look unlikely to do so without other players moving on. Llera remains a rock at the centre of their defence & Antonio's form has certainly seen an upswing with his pace a constant menace even though his final product remains inconsistent. They may have just run into some flaky teams recently (Bolton are chief culprits in this category) & we can't leave Charlton alone at odds bigger than evens, take odds of 11/8 for a home win.

Selections:
Stoke City vs Manchester City to draw at 11/4 (Various)
Charlton Athletic to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 11/8 (BetVictor)

Reds on Devilishly Difficult Road to Wembley

The world's oldest cup competition gets underway for 'real' this weekend as the top flight clubs join the action in the 3rd round of the FA cup & we're picking out our fancies for outright glory plus a home double for Saturday. We're also taking our customary look at a lower league game & think we've picked a real banker in League One this time.

The FA Cup

The FA Cup has probably lost some of its lustre since 90s & eras before it but what hasn't changed has been the dominance of 4 teams who've taken 22 of the last 26 competitions between them - Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester United have each taken the Cup 6 times in this period with Liverpool 4 time winners. This dominance goes to show how the teams with the stronger squads consistently achieve success & how rarely a 'lucky' run can lead to a win, for that reason it is worth concentrating on the top few sides in the betting.

(Chelsea are the current holders & should put a bold bid in to retain)

Chelsea have been the recent masters of the cup, taking it 4 times in the past 6 years & they're being respected in the betting as 3rd favourites at 15/2 & they certainly tend to punish weaker teams & have a squad with a huge amount of depth. Chelsea are still way off the pace in the league with three good teams (Spurs, Arsenal & Everton) all pushing for a top 4 spot along with them & bearing in mind they only finished 6th last season it's not a guarantee they'll do it this time so Rafa Benitez's men may find themselves preoccupied with more prescient problems when the later cup rounds come along.

Liverpool have a great cup pedigree & they're probably the most interesting of the sides at a double figure price (11/1 in places), they still don't have any real consistency though & are hugely over reliant on Luis Suarez & inspirational skipper Steven Gerrard - it's no surprise that his recent upturn in form has led to the Reds looking considerably better in recent games. Daniel Sturridge has been brought in to take some pressure of off Suarez but he's not a proven Premier League goalscorer yet & there are too many questions about Liverpool compared to a few teams at odds only a few points shorter.

Manchester City are outright favourites for the competition but this has been a pretty bad season after winning the league last year & it's threatening to turn disastrous. They're 7 points off of the top of the table & were outclassed as they were knocked out of the Champions League at the group stage for the 2nd year in a row, Mancini must be under pressure after the huge investment at the club & the huge demands that entails, he's seemingly increasingly erratic as evidenced by his explosive training ground bust up with the mild mannered (ahem) Mario Balotelli & the whole club will suffer whilst storming midfielder Yaya Toure is off at the Africa Cup of Nations. They've got to put everything into chasing United in the league & the owners may also demand a real challenge in the Europa League meaning the club may end up stretched with their squad not quite having the depth throughout that some assume.

('Goal Machine' Patrice Evra embodies the attacking ethos of the current Man United squad)

At odds of 7/1 the best bet looks to be City's cross-city rivals Manchester United who've assembled a squad of incredible attacking depth & talent & have maybe not got the credit they deserve for what has been a great first half to their season. United are on course for 94 points in the league if they carry on gaining points at the same rate & that's only been bettered once in a 38 game season (Chelsea 2004-05) & they went through top of their Champions League group with no fuss at all. Robin van Persie has of course been the most visible catalyst of United's improved attacking play but there seems to be a real change in the ethos of the club with them becoming maybe as attacking focused as at anytime under Ferguson's reign. That's some statement as the club has nearly always been positive but they're now dynamic in nearly every game with Scholes & Giggs eventually being somewhat sidelined it has meant more pace & whilst Tom Cleverley is far from a great player his movement & play further up the pitch has meant their attacking fullbacks in Rafael & the recently rejuvenated Patrice Evra have been able to terrorise opposing defences. Evra has clearly been under instruction from Ferguson to get further forward & like many of the best fullbacks of the past 20 years he isn't necessarily the best defender but by going back to his style of play from 2 years back & further it has paid dividends for him & the team in terms of goals & chances created. Shinji Kagawa's & Nemanja Vidic's returns to fitness should make them even stronger & they've even shrugged off the absence of Wayne Rooney in recent games. The treble may be beyond them (particularly with Barcelona & Bayern awaiting in Europe) but they can bag a league & cup double so get on the best team at 7/1 - they've a tricky tie at West Ham this weekend but if they can edge past the Hammers they'll surely be favourites.

FA Cup 3rd round double

This is going to be fairly short as we feel the merits of these two selections should be fairly clear to all yet return odds better than Evens when doubled up.

Leicester City are the first bet as they take on League Two outfit Burton Albion in their Kingpower Stadium, the Foxes have a rock solid defence, conceding the fewest in the Championship, & their attack has begun to click into gear as evidenced by a 6-1 win against Huddersfield last time out. Burton are on the cusp of the playoff places in League Two & although this is a big day out for them it isn't a 'huge' one against a top flight team & they will be far more focused on continuing that playoff push than necessarily getting carried away & putting everything into their effort here. Burton's away form in their league campaign also hasn't been strong - they sit 19th of 24 on away results alone & that doesn't auger well for a trip to a team two divisions higher. Nigel Pearson seems an astute manager & he'll rest players that he needs to for Leicester after the busy festive period but he's a strong squad here & we can see hime giving Martyn Waghorn a start & the young Englishman can cause all sorts of problems in the Burton defence. The odds may be short at 1/3 but they should reflect Leicester's likely dominance of this game, it's hard to see their defence troubled & they'll surely score at least once & most likely more for a comfortable win.

(Hugo Rodallega's power could prove too much for Blackpool)

We also like the chances of Fulham to put their recent league form behind them & take care of opponents from a lower division in the shape of Blackpool. Fulham have only won twice in their last 13 league games but in that run they did gain draws against good sides in Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea & we can't see them getting dragged down into a relegation scrap as the season draws in. Fulham do have a few issues that need to be dealt with in the medium to long term with an aged defence but they've enough options going forwards to be able to rest players here & still pose a potent threat to Blackpool who aren't renowned for their resolute defending. Hugo Rodallega should get the chance to start for Fulham & fellow Berbatov understudy Mladen Petric could also be set to feature as he gets back to fitness, with other players such as Kieran Richardson & Kerim Frei looking for the start they should have a lot of quality even if their star player Dimitar Berbatov should be rested as seems likely. Blackpool haven't been in great from themselves with 5 wins in 22 league games & although they could have been fancied if this was at home with Fulham's poor away record it seems a lot less likely they'll get something at the Cottage. Fulham will be feeling all the better for a great win away at West Brom & their fans will be right up for this as the cup offers an outside chance at trophy glory, double up the odds of 7/10 with Leicester so a £20 double returns £45.33 at BetVictor.

Doncaster Rovers vs Colchester United

Down in League One, Doncaster Rovers entertain Colchester United at the Keepmoat Stadium. Doncaster up in 3rd spot will see this as the perfect fixture to put behind them the disappointment of letting a two goal slip against fellow highflyers Sheffield United on New Year's Day.

(Kyle Bennett offers a pacey threat for Doncaster)

Doncaster felt harshly dealt with against Sheffield United after a dominant display was undone by a couple of questionable refereeing decision which gifted Sheffield Utd a late penalty & also a way back into the match & then a straight red card to striker Billy Paynter brought about a 89 minute equaliser. Despite this setback they will be happy with the performance for 80 minutes & are still full of confidence after five wins in their last eight league games. Rovers' away form has been sensational with nine wins from 13 games & Dean Saunders like be looking for them to improve on their five wins at home to push towards automatic promotion, starting here.

Visitors Colchester United are in dire straights currently with the worst current form in the league with nine defeats & only one victory in their last ten league games with their only rest bite coming with a postponement against Swindon Town. After a comprehensive 3-0 defeat against Crawley Town it's now seven straight league defeats which has seen them slip to 20th position & only two points outside the drop zone. They have also failed to score in four of their last five games & it's difficult to see where their next goal is coming from let alone points.

Doncaster's odds look too big at 3/4 with BetVictor who continue to price up football games ultra competitively against the opposition firms, Colchester are in freefall & Doncaster have the weapons to hurt any side in the league.

Selections:
Fulham to beat Blackpool at 7/10 & Leicester to beat Burton at 1/3 double (BetVictor at odds slightly bigger than 6/5)
Doncaster Rovers to beat Colchester United at 3/4 (BetVictor)

Manchester United to win FA Cup outright at 7/1 (BetVictor)

Goals? You never said anything about scoring goals!?

We're still smarting after going so close to all 3 results coming in for us last weekend with Brentford the let downs after scoring all 4 goals in their game but unfortunately with two at the wrong end! It's been a decent footy season for us & we'll attempt to keep it going with a goals market double in the Premier League plus a game in the 1st round of the FA Cup.

Norwich City vs Stoke City & Sunderland vs Aston Villa

This Saturday sees maybe the two least inspiring matches of the season so far only rivalled when these 4 teams faced off last week in a slightly different order of play where Villa drew 1-1 with Norwich & Stoke drew 0-0 with Sunderland. The four teams have each managed just one win each & fill 4 of the bottom 5 places for goals scored in the league this season, whilst Sunderland & Stoke are 2nd & joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded. All of this means it's been pretty miserable for fans of all 4 teams this year & could end up having long term consequences in terms of reduced attendances if they can't find some attacking tendencies quickly.

(Crouch & Walters are Stoke's likeliest scorers)

We'll start off with the Norwich v Stoke game & this is one that we feel is going to be a real struggle for the Canaries as their one method of scoring that has proven at least semi-effective is getting the ball up to Grant Holt & he has proven he can bully plenty of classy Premier League defenders. Holt however won't find it as easy to get success against the Stoke defenders who are the most physical in the league (even without the broken-legged Marc Wilson) & can easily deal with most crosses & set piece situations & are led by their dominant captain Ryan Shawcross. We're also fans (as are Chelsea) of Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic & think they can keep Norwich at bay here, Stoke don't score too many themselves (only scored 3 or more goals once in the League since May 2011) so this looks an ideal candidate of a game to go under 2.5 goals & odds of 4/5 about it are excellent value. Stoke have played probably the 4 best sides in the country already (Chelsea, Arsenal & both Manchester sides) losing only twice & they'll be looking to improve now they have an easier set of fixtures & we'll take them to sneak this one 1-0 at a generous price of 8/1.

(Colback, Cuellar & O'Shea - 3 of Sunderland's impenetrable back 4)

Sunderland have only lost once this year (to Man City) & have been imperious defensively with veterans John O'Shea & Carlos Cuellar arguably the best centre back pairing in the league right now, of course it helps that they are guarded by the midfield terrier that is Lee Cattermole. Sunderland's real problem has been the lack of chances they've created & Stephane Sessegnon's form has been a particular problem as he was so important last season, James McClean is off the boil a bit too & Seb Larsson hasn't even been getting his set pieces right. We'd also argue that although Craig Gardner has done well at right back this year we much prefer him higher up the pitch  playing neat one-twos to find a way through opposing defenses. If Sunderland do create chances they know that Steven Fletcher can put them away & they may find they can push higher up the pitch in this game as Villa offer so little at the top end of the pitch themselves.

Villa have only scored twice & gained one point from their 5 away games so far, losing to nil against West Ham, Spurs & Fulham, they may have scored 3 in midweek but that was against League One Swindon & we think they'll fail to find the back of the net here. Both sides  played pretty much full strength sides in their League Cup matches meaning there could be somewhat tired legs here but Sunderland will be desperate to win for their fans after falling to local rivals Middlesbrough & can take this with a narrow 1-0 victory (6-1) & this can be doubled up with the previous game to go under 2.5 goals too (8/11).

Forest Green Rovers vs Port Vale

This weekend sees the 1st round of the FA Cup with Forest Green Rovers entertaining Port Vale at The New Lawn. Forest Green are sitting in 6th spot in the Conference Premier whilst Port Vale are 28 places higher in 2nd position in League Two.

(Striker Tom Pope has been in fantastic goalscoring form with 15 goals already this season)

 

Port Vale have won nine matches & collected 30 points so far this season & have been in fine form in the last couple of months. They did suffer a setback last weekend with a 2-0 defeat to Northampton Town but they did play 70 minutes with ten men after John McCombe dismissal. Before this game they won four & draw two of their last six league games & their record on the road this season is particularly good with five victories & hitting the net on average nearly two goals per game.

Forest Green, the longest serving members of the Conference Premier, made a fantastic start to the season but have tailed off in recent weeks. They have lost four league games in a row & two of these have been at home against Tamworth & Luton Town. Confidence would have undoubtedly taken a hit & Port Vale will be too strong for them at the general price of 6/5.

Selections: Under 2.5 goals double - Norwich v Stoke at 4/5 & Sunderland v Aston Villa at 8/11 (Stan James)
Stoke to beat Norwich 1-0 at 8/1 (Stan James)
Sunderland to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at 6/1 (Various)
Port Vale to beat Forest Green Rovers at 6/5 (Various)

Reliable Charlton set to hang Northern primates

Middlesbrough's defeat at Vicarage Road last weekend robbed of us a nice treble (our other selections, Everton and Yeovil eased home). We're back today with a couple of picks for you to get stuck into. Today is the final day of the regular season in both League One and Two, it should prove an exciting day for many teams and fans alike up and down the country.

(Chris Powell era is in full flow with the Championship awaiting)

In League One, there will be a festival atmosphere at The Valley for Charlton Athletic against Hartlepool. With promotion & the league title in the bag it just leaves Charlton with one final target of gaining three points & achieving 100+ league points for the season. A 90th minute equaliser from Preston's retiring Gary Alexander prevented Charlton chalking up a six consecutive victory last weekend. At home they have won their last four in a row & have won 14 of 20 in total but even more impressively they have only once failed to score in one of these games all season which doesn't bode well for a Hartlepool side who have failed to score in 40% of their matches this season. Even at the other end they have only scored 48 goals in 45 matches & the lack of craft in front of goals has meant an in-consistent season & mid table finish. Chris Powell & his players couldn't ask for a better opportunity to thank the fans & finish their perfect season with a comfortable home victory at the best odds of 8/13 with BetVictor & William Hill.

(Leader scorer Rene Howe will hope to be celebrating promotion to League One)

The final round of fixtures in League Two puts together a massive game at Edgar Street between Hereford United and Torquay. The game has consequences at both ends but unfortunately a win for either side may not be enough for them. Torquay need three points & hope Crawley fail to win at Accrington Stanley to gain automatic promotion whilst Hereford need the win & hope Barnet don't beat Burton Albion to avoid relegation to the Conference. Torquay will be relying on their excellent away record (2nd best in the league) of 11 victories & only conceding 24 goals in 22 matches to continue. What will also give confidence to Torquay fans is the fact that Hereford have the worst home record in the league where they have suffered 13 defeats in 22 matches. They have only won one of their last nine fixtures with a surprising away win at Crawley & have suffered five defeats. Torquay at the attractive price of 13/10 will pick up the three points & consign Hereford to the Conference but still have their fingers crossed that results go their away to gain automatic promotion.

Selections:

Charlton Athletic to beat Hartlepool at 8/13 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Torquay to beat Hereford United at 13/10 (BetVictor & William Hill)

Semi Final Showdown at Wembley

This weekend sees some intriguing ties throughout the leagues as teams continue to try to push for titles & promotions, playoffs & European places whereas at the other end of the tables the scrap to escape relegation becomes ever more desperate. Throw into that the FA Cup semi finals & there is plenty of action to get your betting teeth into, we're trying to help with a few picks that look reasonable at the prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above, it's a good way too keep up to date with our latest posts & join in with the sport & betting conversation.

(Crewe boss Steve Davis hopes the travelling fans can inspire another 3 points)

Down in League Two, Crewe Alexandra travel to Mose Rose to face Macclesfield Town, Crewe are outside the play-off places on goal difference from Oxford United on 66 points whilst Macclesfield are in the relegation spots & three points away from safety. Crewe are unbeaten in their last 12 league games & have won five of their last seven with the latest being a comfortable 3-0 home victory over Bristol Rovers after two consecutive 1-1 draws, on the road they are unbeaten in their last five with two of them ending in victories against Gillingham & Hereford. Hosts Macclesfield are in dire form & haven't registered a win since 2011, their last 19 league games have ended with 13 defeats & six draws, with their last three games in a row lost against Gillingham, Shrewsbury Town & Port Vale. Crewe can continue their fine form at the expense of woeful Macclesfield at a too big price of 5/4 with Stan James.

(It isn't easy to work out who will line up for Chelsea v Spurs, could it be Sideshow Bob?)

The big games of the weekend come in the FA Cup semi finals, with firstly Liverpool taking on Everton & then the utterly ridiculous 6pm kickoff on Sunday between Spurs & Chelsea. We're going to keep things relatively simple here, Spurs & Liverpool have been atrocious in 2012 whereas Chelsea have improved immeasurably since sacking AVB & Everton have produced their usual late season charge. It makes no sense at all that Liverpool are favourites for their game as David Moyes was able to rest players for their midweek game just as Kenny Dalglish was, there is talk of how Liverpool are prioritising the cup competitions but Moyes prioritised it so much he fielded an understength side in the Derby match between these two at Goodison in preparation for facing Sunderland! Everton have found a cutting edge now with Nikica Jelvic up front & the play in the team has improved a lot thanks to the return of Steven Pienaar, on loan from Spurs. Harry Redknapp has already won the competition with Portsmouth & would dearly love to again but the reason Spurs edge ahead for favouritism appears to be because of the commitments to the Champions League that Chelsea have, with Barcelona to face in the coming week. It however won't be easy for Spurs to suddenly turn on the style whichever Chelsea players they face here after yet another poor result, losing at home to Norwich, they looked to be turning it around with wins against poor Bolton & a fading Swansea but maybe that was a false dawn. We're going for a double of Everton to win against Liverpool (in 90 minutes) at great odds of 85/40 & Chelsea to qualify for the final, in what could be a trappy affair at 10/11 (double with BetVictor), it pays just about £60 to a £10 stake & is worth a little investment.

(Hotshot Rene Howe has delayed knee surgery to help push Torquay into League One)

Also in League Two, Torquay United entertain Southend United at Plainmoor, this is a massive match in the race for promotion to League One with Torquay sat in 2nd & Southend in 5th but only six points behind. Torquay are in good form with five wins, two draws & only one defeat to current league leaders Swindon Town in their last eight league games, they have won three of their last four with victories over Port Vale, Barnet & Accrington Stanley. The Gulls home form has seen 12 victories out of 21 & they have scored at least one goal in 95% of these matches, lately at home they are unbeaten in their last four & have won their last two in a row. Visitors Southend are going through an inconsistent spell & have been defeated three times in their last five league games with the latest being away at Bradford City 2-0, they have a good away record this season but in recent weeks they have lost their last two in a row & four of their last six. We believe that Torquay will be too strong for Southend & put further distance between the two sides at the best price of 13/10 with William Hill.

Selections:
Crewe Alexandra to beat Macclesfield Town at 5/4 (Stan James)
Everton to beat Liverpool (in 90 mins) & Chelsea to qualify over Spurs double at odds just shy of 5/1 (BetVictor)
Torquay United to beat Southend United at 13/10 (William Hill)

London Two - Surburbia Nil

Wednesday night sees action from the Champions League, FA Cup & Championship but we'll be concentrating on the latter two competitions as we're unwilling to get involved with Barcelona games for the most part & APOEL have created some real upset results so we're staying away from that too.

(Robert Green showing off a skill highly valued by Sam Allardyce - the long kick)

West Ham United are chasing hard for the title in the Championship & they look to be a quality outfit that should have too much for their visitors Watford on Wednesday night. West Ham have lost just once in their last 9 league games & have even manged to go two whole games without having a player sent off after seeing reds in three consecutive games! They looked wholly professional away to Cardiff on Sunday, playing patient football & taking their chances when they came & they have such a strong & deep squad that playing three days later should prove no problem. Watford have had a streaky look to their form since overcoming a really bad start to their season, going on little runs of defeats & then unbeaten sequences & although they started 2012 nicely they then took beatings from Crystal Palace & Southampton before an excellent comeback from two down to win 3-2 against Burnley on Saturday. Sam Allardyce's men aren't the kind of side to let opportunities slip like Burnley did though & with them facing the possibility of losing the 6 points they've gained against Portsmouth if they go out of the league they know they have to win games like this. With so many strikers to choose from plus Kevin Nolan & Mark Noble also offering plenty of goals it's difficult to envisage West Ham not scoring & with Watford being the league's 2nd lowest scorers away from home this should be comfortable, backing West Ham at 4/7 is very reasonable.

(Scott Parker looks likely to start against Stevenage as Spurs look to win the cup)

Tottenham Hotspur have been huffing & puffing in recent games & have just 8 points from their last 7 league games but they are rightly red hot favourites to beat League One side Stevenage in their 5th round FA Cup replay at White Hart Lane. Stevenage had been flying after an inauspicious start to the season & had built up a sequence of just one loss in 17 league games but they've since not managed to win in four, losing two of those & although they held what appeared to be an unprepared & lethargic Spurs side at home the same won't happen here. Stevenage have failed to score in 11 of their 32 league games & they won't see much of the ball in this one whoever Harry decides to start, their top scorer Chris Beardsley is also unlikely to be fit. Spurs have enough options to ensure the win here & they can do it without conceding, odds of 11/10 about Spurs winning to nil need to be backed.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Watford at 4/7 (general)
Tottenham Hotspur to beat Stevenage to nil at 11/10 (general)
Back the double to return £33 off a £10 stake

Black Cats a Bad Omen for Wenger's Men

This weekend sees FA Cup ties so there are no Premier League matches & we've looked at through the fixture list to find a bet in the cup's fifth round plus bets from Leagues One & two as well. We're trying to bounce back from a horrible midweek for us where Brighton seemed to let everyone down at home to Millwall plus Man City prevailed against Porto & our opinion with a great result in the Europa League. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by clicking on the follow button above. We've been fairly football heavy recently as the NFL season has ended but now the golf is back in the swing of things we'll hopefully get some previews up plus Cheltenham Festival is only a month away & the start of the flat racing season is getting closer on the horizon so we'll spreading things out a bit!

(Kieran Richardson has been maturing & improving at Sunderland)

We couldn't let this weekend go without picking out one for the FA Cup & we think that Sunderland to beat Arsenal would be a popular piece of cup magic with Martin O'Neill continuing to work the oracle at the North East club. Sunderland were a little unfortunate to come away with nothing in the league meeting here at the Stadium of Light last Saturday after holding the Gunners for 70 minutes before taking the lead through the impressive (& impressively tattooed too!) James McLean as they allowed Aaron Ramsey to equalise & then the now departed Thierry Henry to get the winner. Circumstances are different now, Arsenal were on a bit if a high with Henry back but he's now jetted back to the US & they are coming off a crushing midweek defeat to AC Milan in the San Siro. That game on Wednesday should mean that Sunderland are both fresher & more prepared for this mentally & Arsenal will know that if they lose here that yet another season without a trophy awaits them. Arsenal's defence still has problems with even Tomas Vermaelen not looking great at times whereas Sunderland have a really effective unit & Michael Turner has done well in the absence of Wes Brown, the other ex-Man United players in defence of Bardsley, O'Shea & the underrated Kieran Richardson have all contributed to allowing the forward players to play some great counterattacking football. McLean has obviously been a real gem for the Black Cats but Stephane Sessegnon has impressed throughout the season with some great inventive play & some cool finishing. The worry for Arsenal is that they face a real hangover from the Champions League, even without that Sunderland are playing such good football they'd have a very real chance & with O'Neill taking this cup challenge very seriously they offer awesome value at 19/10 to win.

(The passionate Paulo Di Canio has his Swindon side firing on all cylinders)

In League Two, Swindon Town travel to Hereford at Edgar Street, Swindon are in 4th position with only two points separating the sides from 1st to 6th places whilst Hereford are in 21st spot facing a relegation battle. The Robins are in a formidable run of form with only one defeat in the league since October 2011 plus a FA Cup victory over Premiership Wigan Athletic & a pending trip to Wembley for the Johnstone's Paint Trophy final. On Tuesday night a stunning strike from Billy Bodin put them on their way to beating promotion rivals Crawley Town 3-0 & they have won their last six league matches: scoring 14 & only conceding three. Hosts Hereford have struggled all season & have lost exactly half their league games, they have gained more points on the road this season than at Edgar Street where they have only 12 points from 16 games with 10 defeats & have conceded on average nearly two goals per game. Swindon can prove to be far too strong for a poor Hereford side as they look to continue their fine form at a best price of 5/6 with Coral.

(All in a day's work for Sheffield United captain Chris Morgan)

In League One in form Sheffield United take on Preston North End at Bramall Lane in what very much used to be a ‘Championship’ fixture. The Blades find themselves currently sitting in the second automatic promotion spot behind Charlton after a fantastic run of results, Danny Wilson’s side head the form table with a very impressive 5 wins in their last 6 league outings, more impressive though is the Red and White’s home form in which they have won 6 out of 6 scoring 16 and conceding just 2. Saturday’s opponents Preston have been gaining mixed results of late with Graham Westley beginning to steady the ship after his arrival from Stevenage just over a month ago; they come into the game on the back of a win having defeated Hartlepool with a fantastic strike from Dan Mayor on Tuesday night. Highlights of the game (courtesy of the BBC) can be seen here. As the highlights suggest Preston were a touch lucky to take all three points having invited the visitors to have 15 shots (to their 4) efforts on goal. We think that Sheffield United, with Ched Evans spearheading the attack, will prove that much more clinical in front of goal and collect all three points. United are available at a best price of 4/7 with Ladbrokes and Coral.

Selections:
Sunderland to beat Arsenal at 19/10 (PaddyPower)
Swindon Town to beat Hereford United at 5/6 (Coral)
Sheffield United to beat Preston North End at 4/7 (Ladbrokes and Coral)

Fulham can get engine running in Cup bid

The weekend gets underway early this week with FA Cup matches on Friday & we've got a selection in one of those games as well as searching through the lower leagues where value seems to be found the most often. Last weekend we had 3 from 3 with our outright picks with Villa, West Ham & Blackpool coming up trumps, we're looking to carry on with that form - you can keep up to date with our posts & fancies by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney or by clicking the button above.

(Fulham's Hangeland & Dempsey would be welcomed into most sides)

For our first pick we're looking towards a team that we think offer some excellent value in the outright market for victory in the competition, they have to get past Everton first but Fulham play some attractive football at times & have very recent history of an outstanding cup run when reaching the final of the Europa League. In the league both sides have exactly the same amount of points with just 26 from 22 games, neither look in real trouble of relegation, at the moment, but a slip in form between now & the end of the season could see things get close. Everton's obvious problem this year has been a chronic lack of goals & that has been a similar story for many of the clubs at the bottom end, Fulham have scored the same amount of goals as Spurs at home (joint 4th highest) but have struggled away with just 7 in 11 league games. Everton's strength comes at the back with Howard in goal, Baines at left back & Distin & Jagielka in the centre all being excellent when at their best, unfortunately Distin & Jagielka are out & that could be disastrous if Johnson, Zamora & the red hot Dempsey link up like they did against Newcastle. Everton have looked a little lifeless recently with losses to Bolton & Spurs, draws against Blackburn & Villa & a sole unimpressive win against Tamworth in their last 5 games. Fulham are in & out certainly, but they have played some great stuff at times & we know they can score, owner Mohamed al-Fayed will be keen for them to have a cup run so they have to be backed at generous odds of 3/1 to win here & we also like an each way bet at 40/1 in the cup's outright market.

(Johnnie Jackson has scored directly with two free kicks in his last two matches) 

In League One, Exeter City entertain Charlton Athletic at St James Park. Charlton top the table & have a seven point gap to 2nd place Huddersfield whilst Exeter are in 18th place just 3 points above the last relegation place. Charlton look well on course to gain automatic promotion with 13 league wins in their last 16 matches. Their current form has seen four wins out of their last five & they have beaten both Sheffield clubs 1-0 in their last two games. Away from home they have the best record in the league with 32 points out of a possible 42 with ten wins. Hosts Exeter have drawn their last two matches 0-0 & have only one victory in their last eight league games. All of their six victories this season have come against sides in 16th place or lower & their last victory at home came back in November. We believe that Charlton will be too strong for an average Exeter side at the generous price of evens with Boylesports currently but this price won't last for long!

(Who will come out on top in the battle of the gaffers between Terry Brown & Dean Holdsworth?)

Down in League Two, AFC Wimbledon play Aldershot Town at the Cherry Red Records Stadium. AFC Wimbledon are sat in 15th position & are four places above Aldershot. The Dons have come out the other side of a poor run of form between 15th October - 2nd January where they only managed three points with nine defeats out of twelve matches. Their return in form has coincided with a number of early January signings in Jason Euell, Byron Harrison, George Moncur & Billy Knot which has boasted confidence & yielded three wins in a row against Port Vale, Gillingham & Macclesfield. Visitors Aldershot have suffered seven defeats in their last ten league games & have only scored two goals in the process. They haven't scored a single goal in their last six & it's hard to see where their next goal is coming from? We fancy AFC Wimbledon to continue their winning streak at the expense of Aldershot at the best price of 7/5 with Boylesports.

Selections:
Fulham to beat Everton at 3/1 (Totesport, Betfred & BetVictor)
Fulham to win FA Cup outright at 40/1 (BetVictor & Stan James) each way 1/2 odds first two
Charlton Athletic to beat Exeter City at evens (Boylesports)
AFC Wimbledon to beat Aldershot Town at 7/5 (Boylesports)
A double on the above teams pays 3.80/1.

Summerbee's Suggestions - Manchester Derby

Our friends @stillsportmedia are embarking on an exciting new venture having teamed up with former professional footballer Nicky Summerbee. The ex Manchester City, Sunderland, Swindon Town, Bolton Wanderers, Leicester City, Nottingham Forest and Bradford City player is soon to launch a new website (www.nickysummerbee.co.uk) in conjunction with the South West based business, to find out more about the new website follow Nicky on twitter @Summerbee7 for the latest updates. Still Sports Media kindly arranged for Nicky to predict the outcome of the Manchester Derby in the FA Cup 3rd Round. Click on the video below to see how the Altrincham born midfielder predicts the match will end up.

Manchester City are the current holders after a Yaya Toure goal gave them a narrow 1-0 victory over Stoke City last May & they bid for a sixth FA Cup in their history. They currently lead the Premier League by three points over United & come into the match on the back of a comprehensive 3-0 victory Liverpool after a mini blip of one point in two away games against WBA & Sunderland. They have a perfect record at the Etihad Stadium of ten wins from ten in the league & have scored 31 goals whilst only conceding four. Lets not forget that City have already beaten United in their own backyard 6-1 back in October & will look to tighten their hold over their bitter rivals.

(City are great going forwards & strong at the back, thanks in no small part to Vincent Kompany)

Manchester United have won the FA cup an unrivalled 11 times, but not since 2004. They have reached the semi-finals in three of the last five seasons, and have only suffered defeat once to Leeds Utd in Sir Alex Ferguson's tenure. In the Premiership they have the best away record in the league amassing 23 points from a possible 30 with seven wins, two draws & one defeat. The defeat came earlier this week to Newcastle in a 3-0 hammering & they look likely to be selecting from an unchanged squad for this game with Nemanja Vidic, Ashley Young, Jonny Evans & Chris Smalling all missing.

Thanks again to Nicky for his predictions and Still Sports Media for taking their time out to arrange and film the video.

 (Sheffield Wednesday's returning skipper Rob Jones can aid their FA Cup progress)

Also in the FA Cup Sheffield Wednesday entertain West Ham United at Hillsbrough, Wednesday are 2nd in League One whilst West Ham are joint leaders of the Championship. Wednesday have an unbeaten home record this season with 29 points out of a possible 33 with nine wins & two draws, they've pretty good recent form too having won five of their last 8 league games with only one defeat. It should be an interesting home versus away matchup as West Ham have the best away record in the Championship with seven wins, three draws & three defeats in their 13 games. We're leaning towards the Sheffield side as West Ham are struggling for form of late with three defeats in their last six games & two defeats & one draw in their last three away games. Both sides have promotion as their key objective this year but that doesn't mean that a cup run would be unwelcome, the Owls welcome back skipper Rob Jones whilst West Ham look the more likely to give their fringe players a game with the like of Frank Nouble, Robbie Hall & Dan Potts starting. From purely a value perspective the home side need to backed as this looks likely to be fairly even & Wednesday look to offer the better odds, we're going with Sheffield Wednesday to win at 19/10.

Nicky’s Selections:

Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 11/10 (General)

Manchester City to win 3-1 at 18/1 (Coral)

Our Selection:

Sheffield Wednesday to beat West Ham United at 19/10 (Paddy Power & William Hill)

Wigan & Charlton need to be more than Athletic to progress in the Cup

This weekend sees the 3rd round of the FA Cup & the competition has plenty of exciting matches both between minnows & giants & some real heavyweights matching up, we've looked at the Saturday matches to find the best bets available & think we've got some bankers & a potential upset on our hands.

(Billy Sharp is looking to take his goalscoring form into the FA Cup)

At the Keepmoat, Doncaster Rovers entertain Notts County in the FA Cup 3rd round. Doncaster sit one place off the bottom of the Championship whilst visitors Notts County are 11th in League One. The Rovers have struggled this season hence their current league position but have a reasonable home record with four victories & four draws in their 12 games. At home they have beaten league leaders Southampton, Leicester, Crystal Palace & Barnsley and they are unbeaten in their last four with one draw & three wins on the bounce. Notts County are in poor form currently with only five points in their last 8 league games. On the road they have been defeated eight times out of 13 matches & have lost their last five in a row; conceding 11 goals in the process. We expect Doncaster with hot shot Billy Sharp, who has 10 league goals so far, to be too strong for Notts County & progress to Round 4 at the best price of 21/20 with Victor Chandler.

(Will the passionate Paulo Di Canio be celebrating a cup surprise over Premiership opposition?)

Everyone likes an upset in the FA Cup & we believe there is the potential at The County Ground with Paulo Di Canio's Swindon Town taking on Premiership side Wigan Athletic. Di Canio has had his moments in the competition as a player; most notably scoring the winner at Old Trafford for West Ham United & can continue his success as a manager. The Robins are in very good current form with five wins from eight & have only suffered defeat once in their last 13 league games. At home it's even better with eight wins from 11 league games & have won their last three. They are full of confidence & this is indicated with goals aplenty throughout the side with five players having scored five or more in all competitions. Visitors Wigan have already been knocked out of the League Cup to lower league opposition this season & their focus is likely to be on their impending relegation scrap than a long cup run. They have lost six of their ten league away games & have only kept one clean sheet whilst conceding 21 goals in the process. We feel that Swindon have the firepower capable of springing a surprise at the expense of Wigan & are worth a punt at the price of 11/5 with SkyBet & Paddy Power.

(Bryan Ruiz has grown into the English game & is 'looking forward' to his first FA Cup game)

We're big fans of Chris Powell & his Charlton team & we were happy to tip them up for League glory back at the start of the season but they look to be horribly overmatched in their short trip to Craven Cottage to face up against Fulham. Since the start of December Martin Jol's side have beaten Liverpool & Arsenal & managed a deserved draw at Chelsea, their 5-0 loss to Manchester United can be considered an aberration as their play in general this year has been to a nice standard (they've also drawn against Man City & Arsenal in their first league fixture). There should be a good atmosphere in the ground with this being a London derby & Fulham should play enough of their elite players to cause Charlton all sorts of problems. Fulham look to be a side that will have no trouble avoiding relegation but will struggle for a European place in the league so their best chance comes in this competition, they really enjoyed their Europa League adventure 2 years ago & chairman Mohamed Al-Fayed will be keen for more. Charlton will give it their best but Fulham look a real banker & odds of 4/9 are more than fair, we also wouldn't put anyone off a wager on them for outright cup glory at 50/1.

Selections:

Doncaster Rovers to beat Notts County at 21/20 (Victor Chandler)
Swindon Town to beat Wigan Athletic at 11/5 (SkyBet & Paddy Power)
Fulham to beat Charlton Athletic at 4/9 (General)

County to continue cup run

After our 15/8 winner with Cheltenham Town today can we keep the winners coming with our Sunday FA Cup & Premier League double?

(Can Jeff Hughes celebrate yet another goal against Sutton United?)

In FA Cup action we see Notts County, currently in 6th place in League One, travelling to Conference South side Sutton United & the league side appear to have been underestimated in this one. Notts County's league form has tailed off slightly, they won against Scunthorpe last time out but hadn't won in 5 before that although they did have some tough assignments in those games, overall they've been pretty tough this year & deserve their current placing. Sutton have had some big wins against some of the poorer opposition in the Conference South but have sometimes disappointed against some of the better sides, that doesn't bode well in this one & they could take a beating. County are missing Lee Hughes through suspension but have a decent pairing of Karl Hawley & Ben Burgess up front & left winger Jeff Hughes has been in great scoring form this year, often cutting in from wide & has 8 goals so far this year. BlueSquare are offering odds of 8/5 that Notts County can win starting with -1 goals & they should be bet, a cup run is always a good money spinner for a League One side & they'll play a full strength team in this & should prove too strong over 90 minutes.

Due to their Europa League participation, Stoke City have yet another 3pm Sunday kick off this time at Goodison Park against Everton. The Potters progressed into the knockout phase of Europe in the week after a 1-1 draw against Dynamo Keiv but they are can't transfer their form into the Premiership. After their four previous group fixtures they have lost all four games with an aggregate score of 1-14 with defeats to Sunderland, Swansea, Arsenal & Bolton. On the road they have always struggled & they have only managed one win in their last 16 league away games with three draws & 12 defeats. Hosts Everton made their customary slow start to the season but seem to be improving week by week; helped by key players returning from injury with Sylvain Distin, Phil Neville & Jack Rodwell likely to return tomorrow. They have won their last two games against Bolton & Wolves and are vying to win three successive league matches for the first time in 22 months. We expect Everton to be too strong for Stoke as their away day woes continue at the best price of 3/4 with Paddy Power.

Selections:

Notts County to beat Sutton United with -1 goal on the handicap at 8/5 (BlueSquare)
Everton to beat Stoke City at 3/4 (Paddy Power)
The above double pays just over 7/2

Toon and Town to trounce rivals

This weekend sees the 2nd round of the FA Cup with 40 lower league teams doing battle & dreaming of that lucrative away day at Old Trafford or City of Manchester Stadium in the next round as well as Barclays Premier League. As usual we've searched through the weekend card & found two cracking bets.

(Petr Cech's decline & Terry's problems are playing a big part in Chelsea's disappointing season)

We have to admit that here in the Like Buying Money offices we've been as big doubters as anyone with regards to Newcastle United but it seems that they are at least halfway to being the real deal & a genuine top half side only having lost once in the league to table toppers Man City, they take on Chelsea at home in the early Saturday kickoff & shouldn't be underestimated. A lot of talk has been about Newcastle's midfield engine & Cheick Tiote & Yohan Cabaye being particularly impressive in both quality & work rate but we think the defence deserve particular credit - many a good side is built from the solid foundations at the back. Tim Krul has been outstanding ever since gaining the first team spot between the posts, Ryan Taylor has adapted to his new role at left back extraordinarily well, captain Fabricio Coloccini is a rock at the centre & is getting the best out of Steven Taylor whilst Danny Simpson should be getting a look in at an England spot if he carries on his form at right back, he's certainly a better defender than Glen Johnson. Of course up front the Geordies have got Demba Ba who's been a real success for both them & West Ham since coming to England, overall the team really look on the up but will need to improve the strength of their squad if wanting to consolidate & improve.

Chelsea meanwhile appear to be in turmoil, having lost 4 league games already including 3 of their last 5, their ageing players all seem to be hitting the wall at the same time, although Lampard still seems to have his touch when it comes to shooting, & John Terry's problems are rife on & off the field. Any lingering claims that Petr Cech remains a world class goalkeeper should also be dismissed, he hasn't been near his previous level in 3 seasons & should be one of the first names out of the door when the inevitable reshuffle comes. Villas-Boas may have taken this post just a little too soon in his career, the Chelsea team doesn't appear to be the easiest of assignments with many strong personalities, if results don't improve, & soon, he will surely be shown the door. The bookies look to be fearing a Chelsea fight back after being knocked out of the league cup at home but they're surely too short a price to win this one & the 2-1 for Newcastle to win draw no bet market looks great value especially as the home side are as short as 9/4 in places just to win the game without that extra insurance.

In the FA Cup 2nd Round, Luton Town host Cheltenham Town at Kenilworth Road. Both sides beat opposition from a higher league tier in the 1st round with the Hatters beating struggling Northampton 1-0 & Cheltenham also winning 1-0 away at Tranmere. Luton sit 6th in the Conference Premier & boss Gary Brabin has pleaded for the fans backing this week as the home faithful have been venting their disappointment & frustration with recent performances which has seen them win only one of their last four league outings. Their home form in their last six league games has seen two wins, one draw & three defeats. Visitors Cheltenham are the last automatic promotion spot in League Two & are flying currently with five wins in their last six league games & have kept three clean sheets. On the road this season they have won six out of their ten games & their 3-1 away win at Oxford last weekend meant seven away wins in a row in all competitions. Despite their form the bookmakers have them as outsiders for the match at the best price of 15/8 with Victor Chandler. So take advantage of this generous price & back Cheltenham to be too strong with Scottish striker Darryl Duffy looking to build on four goals in his last six games against Luton.

Selections:

Newcastle United to beat Chelsea in the draw no bet market at 2/1 (Stan James)
Cheltenham Town to beat Luton at 15/8 (Victor Chandler)