Champions League - United say bring it on Mourinho

Lovely, a little bit of the best club competition in the world this week as the Champions League returns & we've got previews of Tuesday's two games plus a fancy over two legs for the Real Madrid vs Manchester United tie.

Celtic vs Juventus

Celtic have already done magnificently well to qualify from their group containing European masters Barcelona  & they now take on another heavyweight in Juventus.

(Big man Fraser Forster will be hard to beat in Celtic's goal)

Neil Lennon's men have managed to get fired up for their Champions League games so far (they're by far & away the only big games they face nowadays thanks to Rangers demotion) & they were unbeaten at home in their group including when holding Barcelona to a nil-nil draw & they're unlikely to opt for an expansive approach here. Fraser Forster, their giant young English goalkeeper, has been in top form this season & he'll be protected by a decent defence including the outstanding left back Emilio Izaguirre. That solid base means Celtic are comfortable with teams coming on to them & they'll have to be as Juventus will have a lot of the ball thanks to Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings.

Juve also have ex-Man United youngster Paul Pogba establishing himself as a player of real talent & potential & he'll provide the battling qualities they'll need here. Juventus however don't have a striker on their books who can strike fear into opposition defences like other top clubs in Europe do, with no one player having scored more than 10 this season & they've recently signed veteran Nicolas Anelka but he's not made an appearance yet & he may not play here.

We expect the Old Lady will come through over two legs but they are pragmatic & would not view a draw as a bad result as they'll have a lot of confidence that they can overpower the SPL side back in Turin, bearing in mind Celtic are very hard to beat at Celtic Park the 11/4 on offer about a draw is too big a price to miss.

Valencia vs Paris Saint-Germain

This has the potential to be an exciting tie with Valencia doing well in their qualifying group & having star striker Robert Soldado scoring freely this season whilst free-spending PSG have assembled a great attacking squad & have started to really leave their mark on their domestic league.

(Lucas Moura is maybe PSG's most exciting talent)

Valencia, like so many other Spanish clubs, remain in a precarious financial situation & they changed managers at the beginning of December with ex-Rafa Benitez assistant Mauricio Pellegrino taking up the head coach reins for the first time in his career. They play some nice attacking football with the option to be quie direct with Robert Soldado an excellent focal point & also play some more intricate stuff through the likes of the Brazilian Jonas & the technically sound Tino Costa. That attacking play can though sometimes come at a cost defensively & they've shipped 35 goals in La Liga so far, twice conceding 5 in a single game this season. Full backs Cissokho & Pereira are better going forwards than at defending whilst there is not a settled first choice keeper at the moment with Alves & Vicente Guaita fighting over the number one shirt.

PSG really are an interesting case, their lack of Champions League experience as a club should limit their potential according to established thinking yet they smashed their way through the group stage & have some incredibly exciting talents at the club (obviously not including David 'stunt signing' Beckham!). Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a fine footballer, & is now more appreciated here in the UK, & is ably supported in attack by Ezequiel Lavezzi who played so well for Napoli along with Edison Cavani last season. The player who most interests us though is the incredibly talented Brazilian youngster Lucas Moura who was bought before the start of the season but loaned straight back to Sao Paulo before joining up with the French club this January. Moura really is a unique talent as you'll see in the video above & this could be the game where he shows why he cost around 45 million euros.

The French league have certainly given PSG every chance of success in this one by scheduling their Ligue 1 game last Friday, just a couple of days after the international friendlies but meaning they've had a lot of time to prepare for this game. PSG are strong favourites to win over two legs so to see odds of 2/1+ for them to win here looks a little on the big side when you consider their big 15 points haul in their qualifying group, put your trust in them to put on a show of attacking brilliance & put this to bed before the return match.

Real Madrid vs Manchester United

This is a monster of a game with the two biggest club sides in the world facing off against each other & some of football's biggest personalities to boot, you'll see plenty of pictures of the Portugese pair of Jose Mourinho & the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo but this could just be the last we see of them in this season's competition...

(Cristiano Ronaldo would be the greatest in any other era - WHY MESSI??!!!)

In terms of man for man players Madrid would seemingly be able to play United off the park if reputations were all that mattered with the likes of Ronaldo, Ozil, Khedira, Alonso, Benzema, Higuain, Sergio Ramos, Modric & di Maria but it takes more than names & individuals to make a great team & Real are not quite that. There are some serious internal issues at Madrid with apparent divisions between the large Portugese contingent & the Spanish players with reports that Sergio Ramos & popular keeper Ilker Casillas had issued a warning to the club president that players would be looking to leave in the Summer if Mourinho wasn't removed. It's all led to Real being far off the pace in the league & although they can of course come up with ace performances (they should be able to with that list of talent) they have at times looked off the pace & sloppy & were just dreadful at Granada last week when losing 1-0 to a Ronaldo on goal. Madrid are without top keeper Casillas through injury for both games & that's a worry when backup Antonio Adan has only played for them 7 times & is coming up against a United strikeforce that have the highest chance conversion rate in the Premier League.

(Rafael da Silva has been in fine form this season, especially in recent games)

United are all about the team & although they clearly have outstanding individuals they are arguably greater than the sum of their parts & Ferguson continues to prove he's a shrewd tactical manager - maybe something he doesn't get credited for as much as his other skills. The key in this game is to stop Cristiano Ronaldo & don't be surprised to see someone do a man marking job but there's reason to believe he could have troubles anyway as Rafael is turning into a fine player, adding in the defensive skills & decision making to complement his tremendous attacking threat. Gary Neville giving him Sky Sports' man of the match award this Sunday was a nice touch & the ex-United right back will have done so with one eye on giving him added confidence for this game. With van Persie up front the Red Devils always pose a potent threat & Wayne Rooney & the emerging Shinji Kagawa can expose any chinks in the Madrid defence - they definitely exist. At the other end of the pitch Nemanja Vidic is getting back to full fitness & making a big difference in the heart of the defence whilst David de Gea is also improving, his shot stopping skills have never been in doubt & that could be decisive with Ronaldo's shoot on sight policy.

You'll read & hear a lot about Real being a long way off Barcelona in the league & looking very unlikely to catch them so they'll be super pumped for this Champions League game but that's too much of trying to turn a negative into a positive - they're way behind because of their inconsistency & the fact they aren't as good as the sum of their parts. We've noted previously that United are on for an enormous points haul in the league & their play has been underestimated this season, with the 2nd leg of this tie at Old Trafford that's a significant advantage & we genuinely believe they should be odds on to qualify - they aren't so instead take great odds of 6/4 for Ferguson's men to go through to the quarter finals. You likely won't get another chance to back Robin van Persie to score 1st at odds as big as 7/1 all season so take them, he's United's far likeliest scorer as Rooney will drop off the front because his work rate further back is too useful in these big European games.

Selections:
Celtic & Juventus to draw at 11/4 (Stan James)
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Valencia at 11/5 (BetVictor, Stan James & William Hill)
Manchester United to qualify over Real Madrid at 6/4 (Coral)
Robin van Persie to score first at 7/1 (Various)

Real to show City what being Elite in Europe is all about

The Champions League begins again this Tuesday & is undoubtedly the premier club competition in the world, we're taking a look at the glamorous Real Madrid vs Man City tie plus have a pick from the lowest tier of English professional football as we seek the value high & low.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

Manchester City embark on their second season in the Champions League after disappointing last year & going out at the group stage & in their opener they face maybe the toughest fixture in Europe when taking on Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. Mancini will almost certainly be sending his side out with the intention of nicking a draw but that could prove some way beyond them if Madrid can pick themselves up after a very poor start to their league season.

(Will Manchester City be able to cope with the skills of Angel Di Maria?)

Mourinho has publicly questioned his players spirit, suggesting they've only really got up for their Spanish Super Cup games with arch rivals Barcelona so far & they slumped to defeat at Sevilla at the weekend. That Sevilla game could prove a bit of a wake up call though & they have players who tend to be able to rise to the occasion & this is the greatest club competition in the world. Real Madrid won all of their home games in the competition last year & only went out in the semis by penalties, Man City meanwhile struggled on their travels & only picked up a win in their group when taking on the woeful Villareal who ended up without a single point. It takes a while to learn how to play in Europe & City are taking their first tentative steps, of course they weren't helped last year with the Carlos Tevez situation & that is at least seemingly behind them plus Sergio Aguero looks to coming back to full fitness offering them outstanding striking options.

Real do have the pedigree though & the weapons to hurt City, if the English side are potentially vulnerable it would be down the flanks & Cristiano Ronaldo will look to get at Zabaleta & Di Maria will be all over Gael Clichy down the right hand side. They'll have Gonzalo Higuain in the middle & he's looked pretty hot so far this season, taking advantage of Benzema's continuing struggles after a poor Euro 2012 for France. As well as being able to do the pretty stuff Madrid aren't afraid to get physical & they could need to here if they are to stop the rampaging Yaya Toure. We just feel that Madrid are a bit of value at odds of 3/4 at home as they'll look to win this whereas Mancini's caution & City's inexperience could mean they don't offer enough going forward to relieve pressure from defence.

Bradford City vs Morecambe

(James Hanson has 4 goals in all competitions this season)

In League Two Bradford City entertain Morecambe at Valley Parade, after six games each Bradford are in 7th place with 10 points whilst Morecambe are a couple of points back & in 13th. The Bantams have had their struggles on the road so far but have a perfect record in front of their own fans having comprehensively beaten Barnet & AFC Wimbledon (7-0 on aggregate) & also gaining a good 1-0 victory over 3rd place Fleetwood Town. Striking trio James Hanson, summer signing Alan Connell & rising star Nahki Wells have already scored seven league goals between them & will be relishing the prospect of facing a Morecambe defence which has conceded nine goals in six league matches. Morecambe have had a thoroughly mixed start so far with two wins, two draws & two defeats. Most recently Morecambe took 4-0 derby hammering from Fleetwood & that was followed by a dire 0-0 draw against Aldershot on Saturday where they failed to register a single shot on target. Bradford strikers can do the business against an average Morecambe side & bag the three points at the reasonable odds of 5/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Real Madrid to beat Manchester City at 3/4 (BetVictor)
Bradford City to beat Morecambe at 5/6 (Coral)

1st Euro 2012 Semi Final - Primed Portugal can Spank Spain

We'll get to see a real clash of styles on Wednesday night as Portugal's lightning quick, direct & attacking team come up against the last half a decade's dominant football force of the 'Barcelona style' of patient, possession football played by Spain. It should be a really fascinating game & it remains to be seen whether Spain's Iberian rivals are the ones to eventually topple them & stop them winning their third major tournament in a row.

(Portugal can gain some success against Spain starting building with their classy central defenders)

Neither side had tough quarter fnals, with Portugal outclassing the Czech Republic & eventually breaking through late on after numerous near misses earlier in the game. Spain meanwhile could hardly have had an easier game against France with the French seemingly having imploded again before the game & giving a listless display - it was disappointing as Spain don't quite looked to have hit their usual heights & a fully firing France should have given them at least something to think about.

For all their quality Spain really haven't created too many clear cut chances in their games but because they are defensively sound & control the ball so well they don't need to score many as it's difficult to see them conceding often. If you were to pinpoint a defensive weakness it would be Alvaro Arbeloa at right back though & that just happens to be the key position when trying to stop the unstoppable Cristiano Ronaldo - he has been quite brilliant in the last two games & will have plenty of happy thoughts lining up against Spanish players - after all he finds it pretty easy to score against them in his day job at Real Madrid. Ronaldo may be arrogant & seem selfish but you can tell that he really does inspire his team mates around him & there is an awful lot of quality throughout the Portugal team other than their traditional problem position at striker. Portugal have struggled at point ever since record scorer Pauleta retired in 2006, Hugo Almeida will likely play up front but his role will be to hold the ball up & bring others into play more than trying to score himself. If Spain do concentrate on trying to stop Ronaldo specifically (which they may not as they could simply stick to their ideals) they could allow quality passers Meireles & Moutinho to pick out some killer balls.

(Manchester City's golden boy David Silva hasn't fully impressed us this tournament)

Portugal have looked good defensively & the goals they've conceded aren't the kind of ones they should worry about doing so again with the way Spain play,  the two against Denmark were down to not being able to deal with Nicklas Bendtner & the goal against Germany was similar in not coping with Gomez's presence whilst Van der Vaart's goal for Holland was a stunning strike. Other than in the air Portugal have looked slightly weak with balls in behind as Bruno Alves has looked sluggish & the keeper Patricio while competent is certainly the weakest starting keeper left in the competition by a very long way.

We all know Spain's strengths, they play the ultimate team game as they don't rely on any one position or player & don't seem to need everyone to be on their game to be able to pull off the results but we weren't impressed with them against the Italians in the first game or going forwards against Croatia in the last group game. France were so bad it was embarrassing & Vicente del Bosque's men will need to step up to justify their current odds on price to win in 90 minutes especially as his sdie have had two less rest days than Portugal. We prefer the look of Portugal at decent odds & we think they can get off to a flying start with their explosive game, odds of 17/2 for Portugal to be winning at half time & full time are pretty generous & don't require a big outlay for a sizeable return. The Man of the Match market also offers a little value because if Portugal can win Ronaldo seems locked in for the prize & backing him at 6/1 is better than Portugal at 7/2 - he could even get it if the game ends up going to extra time so looks a real value bet.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Spain at half time & full time at 17/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Cristiano Ronaldo to be Man of the Match at 6/1 (Various)

Euro 2012 Quarter Final One - Powerful Portuguese to Sweep to Semi

Well the teams meeting each other in the quarter final stages are all decided now & we've had three games to assess the form of all the sides & some are looking stronger than others & Germany backers must be starting to feel confident after they continued their competitive game winning streak through the toughest Group on show. Portugal also came through Group B & managed a couple of wins, only losing to the Germans & playing respectably in that game, they take on Group A winners the Czech Republic on Thursday night in Warsaw.

(Joao Moutinho can run the midfield for Portugal)

Although these may not be the very best two teams in the quarter finals this game may well end up being the pick of the bunch from a spectator's perspective as both teams strength lies in attack with Ronaldo spearheading Portugal's pacy forward line & Jiracek & Pilar coming in from wide areas to cause problems on behalf of the Czech Republic. All three players we mentioned there have a couple of goals apiece but it's Ronaldo who appeals as likely to thrive here, he really came to life against Holland, his eyes lit up once he realised the Dutch defence weren't up to scratch & he was able to run at them because they needed to attack & he put in an excellent display & could have ended up with more than two against them.

The Czech defence hasn't looked too clever at times & that could spell danger with Ronaldo on the pitch, although they have looked better with Kadlec back at centre back rather than out on the left where ex-Tottenham loanee David Limbersky has come into the side. Theo Gebre Selassie has been pretty impressive going forward from right back for the Czech's but he'll be directly up against Ronaldo here & we don't think he'll cope so Ladbrokes offers of 4/1 for Ronaldo to score first & 5/4 to score anytime should be punted heavily. Nani has been playing at a really high level for the tournament & he's always keeping his head up looking for Ronaldo to pass to when he has the ball & we wouldn't be surprised to see him provide the assist.

(Czech defender Michal Kadlec is on penalty duty - value at 9/1 to score at anytime?)

Key Czech playmaker Tomas Rosicky is a doubt for the game & he'll be a miss, he certainly performs at a higher level for country than club as we've seen many anonymous performances from him for Arsenal. Milan Baros no longer looks to have goals in him but he does do well at bringing Pilar & Jiracek into play & they often make darting diagonal runs into the box either with or without the ball & the Portuguese defence will need to improve if they are to keep a clean sheet. In fairness Portugal's main defensive problems have looked to be when balls are played into the box at head height & only conceded against Holland thanks to an outrageous Van der Vaart strike. The Czech's shouldn't be bombing too many crosses in but they do attach the edges of the area at speed & that means that defenders need to be careful about not committing themselves to challenges as a penalty could be easily conceded. Defender Michal Kadlec is on penalty duty for the Czech's & he's probably slightly overpriced at 9/1 to score anytime as he also gets forward for set pieces & has 8 goals in 37 games for the national team.

We see plenty of excitement & goals in this game, both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in two of their three games so far & odds of 5/4 about over 2.5 goals seem fair, we don't buy that this will be a tense, nervy affair as Portugal now realise they have to put their faith in Ronaldo if they are going to go all the way & they'll look to feed him the ball with regularity. Both teams are good on the counter with pacy wide players but we see Portugal more successfully 'countering the counters'  breaking whilst Gebre Selassie tries to get forward in  attack & we like the look of a Portugal win in 90 minutes at 4/5 with Paddy Power.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Czech Republic at 4/5 (Paddy Power)
Over 2.5 goals at 5/4 (188Bet)
Ronaldo to score first at 4/1 & anytime at 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Michal Kadlec to score at anytime at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Wednesday 13th June

Wednesday sees us back in the high quality Group B at Euro 2012 where Denmark look to capitalise on their great start when taking on Portugal & bitter rivals Germany & Holland facing off in the later game. With their first games behind them the bookies may be wising up to which players & teams are to look out for & they'll be shortening the odds accordingly, we're trying to stay one step ahead & are scouring the markets for the best bets available.

(Eeeeeeheeeeeee!! Did I do good Ronaldae!???!! Portugal's dream Bo Selecta! partnership)

5:00 pm - Denmark vs Portugal


Denmark came up with a fantastic result for us against Holland in their opener but did lead rather a charmed life at times with the Dutch failing to make the most of some very presentable chances where the Danish defence parted to let players through at times. Portugal have exactly the type of players in Nani & Ronaldo to expose Denmark's wing backs & we've a feeling this is going to be quite an impressive display from the Iberians.

We were keen on Germany to beat Portugal & they eventually prevailed but the Portuguese central midfield we were so concerned about actually managed to be very disciplined & as good as he is, Christian Eriksen will not be posing the same problems as Mesut Ozil, they'll feel confident in dealing with him. Benfica's emerging youngster Nelson Oliveira came on after 70 minutes for Helder Postiga & offered a step up with some exciting & inventive play but Postiga might just retain his starting spot here.

Denmark did well going forwards against the Dutch defence but Portugal have a pretty good back four, especially Pepe & Bruno Alves at centre back, when Fabio Coentrao bothers sticking at defending rather than flying forwards he isn't bad either! Coentrao should have the pace to deal with Rommedahl & the Dane's crossing wasn't too smart anyway in his first game. If Denmark can get at Portugal it will be with their goalscorer from game one, left winger Michael Krohn-Dehli up against Joao Pereira & Miguel Veloso will need to help out at times.

We've already noted that we like the look of Portugal's wide players who should have the beating of the slower Denmark full backs, Nani is a tempter at 10/1 to score first but Stan James are going a standout 11/2 for the great Ronaldo to score first. His scoring record for Real Madrid is freakily good & although he doesn't bag as many for the national side that looks a little on the big side, again betting on the favourite with Betfred at reduced odds but their double delight/hattrick heaven offer is a potential play as he could easily score more than once. We really do like Portugal & think they can win here without conceding, that offers up odds of 9/4 but maybe a better bet is Portugal on the handicap with -1 goal at odds of 100/30, that looks big for a team with a goalscorer like Ronaldo, who could run riot with a solid defence to back him up.

(It wasn't looking great for Mario Gomez...... then he got his goal. Watch out, Super Mario's powered up!)

7:45 pm - Germany vs Holland

The two sides meeting int the late game, Germany & Holland were two of the outright favourites before the tournament began, although after Denmark's 'shock' win the Dutch have now drifted right out & it's understandable - if they lose here their chances will be looking bleak.

We flagged up a weak defence & undersized defence for Holland before the Denmark match, they look like they'll have first choice centre back Joris Mathijsen back for this one which is a positive but he's only 6 feet tall & Mario Gomez could have a field day against him & Heitinga. Germany looked dangerous when getting the ball out wide right & that will be the key tactic here with the classy Thomas Muller taking on tournament youngster Jetro Willems, who will fill Holland's left back spot, time & time again. Muller's crossing wasn't as good as it should have been but he'll have been hard at work in training & we can see him wreaking havoc with Ozil keeping the defensive midfielders too busy to cover out wide.

Going forwards the Dutch of course look good & they created enough chances against Denmark to have won the game, unfortunately Robin van Persie was all over the place, he might retain his starting spot but it could be in arguably his better role as a number ten to Huntelaar as the point man. If you believe the pundits too much you'd think that the Germans defence is some kind of terribly weak link but in truth Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber are two of Europe's finest young centre backs, both at the age of 23 & marshaling the defences of their big club teams. If Holland do go attacking they've the quality to cause problems for anyone but they'll have to sacrifice either De Jong or van Bommel & that will risk Mesut Ozil getting way too much of the ball. Germany have their own star holding midfielder in the tireless Sami Khedira & if he plays well that should free up their super attacking threats.

We flagged up in our Euro 2012 group previews our worries about Holland's defence & not much has changed for us. Holland have great attacking flair but when they go forwards they risk being countered against & the defenders aren't the quickest, if they sit back at all balls will get put into their box & they aren't the biggest. A draw wouldn't be the end of the road for the Dutch as they'd still likely have one game against Portugal where they would have to win to progress & that may stop van Marwijk from going too gung ho, if that's the case we reckon the German defence can hold strong. If Holland do go more attacking we feel Germany will exploit their defence & Mario Gomez will be feeling an awful lot more confident after scoring against Portugal, at odds of 6/1 to score first we'll stay with the big man. We've been out to get Holland from the start of the tournament, there are too many good attackers around at the moment for their second rate defence to allow them to progress like they did to the World Cup final & we'll go with Germany to win again here at odds of 6/4. Germany can keep marching on in style & they look like they are the type of side to revel in their favourites status with some really confident types at every position, so they should be - they have some outstanding talent on display.


Selections:
Portugal to beat Denmark with -1 goal a 100/30 (BlueSquare & 888Sport)
Cristiano Ronaldo to score first at 11/2 (Stan James)
Germany to beat Holland at 6/4 (various)
Mario Gomez to score first at 6/1 (various)