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Thursday 30 August 2012

Can City's Defence Clean Sheet up their act?

We're only just into the football season but plenty of teams are already being acclaimed or damned & maybe some of those sides will show that making cast iron statements based on just 2 or 3 games isn't wise as we move on in the next few weeks & months. By Saturday all of the transfer business will have been sorted & we'll know exactly what players teams have until December at least, we've got some more bets up as we look to improve after a decidedly dodgy start (not helped by some decidedly dodgy keeping by Messrs Green & Jaaskelainen!) & we're keen not to fall into a trap of basing everything on a few games played so far.

Manchester City vs Queens Park Rangers

In the day's late game we see a rematch of the incredible game on the last day of the season as Man City host QPR at the Etihad, QPR nearly denied City the title that day but we don't see them getting close this time

(Somewhat unfairly maligned on arrival - Joleon Lescott has become an integral part of Man City's defence)

This is a matchup between the teams with last season's best home record & worst away record & that bodes ominously badly for Mark Hughes's men especially with City looking to bounce back after drawing at Anfield. City will again be without Sergio Aguero up front but our antepost top scorer tip Carlos Tevez is looking razor sharp & should prove hard to stop for QPR's somewhat porous defence that conceded 66 goals in the league last year. QPR have made many signings this year, of mainly older players with Premier League experience, & we reckon they'll be alright in the end but may take a few games to gel whereas City are very much an established unit & have looked very good going forwards.

City haven't had any problems in attack so far but he may be slightly concerned that the team have conceded two goals in their opening two games & he experimented with a back three last week as he had done in may pre season games. Mancini will be confident they'll score here & so we expect him to have drilled his players on the defensive side of the game this week as he looks to get a clean sheet & shut any critics up. City control a lot of games possession wise, have a fine defence & a very good keeper in Joe Hart in behind - it's easy to see how they ended with 11 clean sheets in their 19 home games last year & we reckon they're in for another in this one.

Odds of 5/4 about a Man City win whilst keeping a clean sheet look an excellent bet especially when you can only get 11/8 with a -2 head start which shows how much the bookies think they have in hand over the visitors. We can't see past a City win & Tevez can bag another, odds of 4/1 for him to be first scorer look fair but we can't recommend it with so many other potential scorers & Super Mario on the penalties too.

Swansea City vs Sunderland

(Michael Laudrup chose not to take part in Denmark's 1992 Euro win - is he the best decision maker?)

Elsewhere in the Premier League we see on-song Swansea take on Sunderland at home & there will be plenty of form merchants believing that the Swans are a good bet after thumping 5-0 & 3-0 victories in their opening two league games & a win in the League Cup too. A top price of 5/4 is available for the home team but we're not sure that offers a great deal of value for a side that were tipped up by many to struggle this season, they've had a nice start but have been fortunate to come up against QPR who were dreadful in their opener & then West Ham gifted them a two goal lead through a keeping & then defensive error whilst otherwise looking just as competitive until then.

We've seen plenty of commentators going a bit over the top about Swansea & reckon that Martin O'Neill will have his men well drilled to stop their passing game & soak up pressure just like they did at Arsenal in their opening fixture.We think that the Mackems have made a wonderful signing in Adam Johnson who is right up there in terms of skilful English players & their other big signing, Steven Fletcher, will relish the service he'll get from Johnson, James McClean & the unselfish & inventive Stephane Sessegnon. Sunderland have also looked to shore up their back line with the signing of Carlos Cuellar & he'll provide some cover & competition to some somewhat injury prone players at the back.

O'Neill's side coped well with Arsenal & they are clearly a superior outfit to Swansea who play a similar style, they missed their next league game against Reading due to a waterlogged pitch but that just meant more preparation time for this game & they won well in the League Cup the other night. Sunderland mightn't be too adventurous going forwards themselves & that means the draw at odds of 12/5 looks a big player in the market for us & this could well end up a goalless stalemate, no goalscorer is available at 9/1 & is worth a small bet.

Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient

In League One, promoted Crawley Town take on Leyton Orient at the Broadfield Stadium, both sides played higher league opposition this week in the Capital One Cup & now return to League One where Crawley are 7th & Leyton Orient are second from bottom after three games played.

(Summer signing Gary Alexander celebrates his brace against Scunthorpe)
Despite losing manager Sean O'Driscoll to Nottingham Forest late in the summer the appointment of Richie Barker from rivals Bury could prove a shrewd move with his knowledge of the league. His side bounced back from a 3-0 drubbing away at Swindon Town with an excellent hard fought win at Doncaster Rovers 1-0 to record their second league victory of the season. It's also their second clean sheet & striking duo Gary Alexander & Nicky Ajose are in good form with three of their four league goals.

Leyton Orient game last weekend was postponed in unusual circumstances when visitors Hartlepool coach was stuck in traffic. This leaves them with two defeats against Tranmere Rovers (3-1) & Stevenage (0-1) from two games in the league so far. Their only league goal has been a late consolation penalty & they seem to have a long hard season ahead of them.

Crawley at home with strikers in-form should be too strong for an average Leyton Orient outfit & can collect the three points at best odds of 8/11, they'll be buoyed by a fabulous win against Bolton in the League Cup & should win easily here.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Queens Park Rangers to nil at 5/4 (Skybet)
Swansea v Sunderland - Draw at 12/5 (Various)
Crawley Town to beat Leyton Orient at 8/11 (Coral, Totesport & Betfred)

No goalscorer at 9/1 in the Swansea v Sunderland game at 9/1 (Bet365, Skybet & Ladbrokes)

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