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Monday 20 August 2012

Accurate Shots can beat wayward Grecians

There's no let up in the new football league season as we go straight from the opening weekend into midweek action & we're going for a home team double on Tuesday night with odds against available on both our picks.

Aldershot Town vs Exeter City

(Troy Brown organises the Shots defence & popped up with a goal vs Plymouth)
In League Two, Aldershot Town entertain Exeter City at the Recreation Ground, although still very early days in the new season Aldershot have made a confident start whilst Exeter, after relegation & a number of first team players leaving in the summer, are still trying to fit together.

Aldershot are looking to build on their 11th place finish last season & have added a number of experienced players to their young squad. Defenders Anthony Tonkin & Troy Brown should shore up the defence & they will be hoping striker Craig Reid can fire in the goals. Confidence will be high in the camp after two good away performances against Wolves in the Capital One cup, where they only lost 7-6 on pens after a 1-1 draw, & a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.

Exeter, relegated from League One, have had a summer of change with Richard Duffy, James Dunne, Troy Archibald-Henville, Daniel Nardiello (leading goalscorer), David Noble & Richard Logan all leaving after playing 30+ games last season. Again they have also brought in experience in Kevin Amankwaah & Tom Doherty whilst re-signing veterans Matt Oakley & Jamie Cureton. But with all the upheaval it's obvious that the side will need a number of weeks to get up to full speed & this is shown in their two results so far having lost against Crystal Palace 2-1 (no disgrace) & then suffering a heavy 3-0 defeat at home to Morecambe at the weekend. Aldershot are usually strong at home & will be buoyant by a good couple of games are a reasonable price of 5/4 to beat an Exeter side who lost 17 of their 23 away games last season albeit being in League One. It can take some time to mould players into a team & Exeter could be side to avoid punting on for the first few weeks of the season.

Watford vs Ipswich Town

(Gianfranco Zola (+ a load of Udinese loanees) is trying to bring some Italian flair to Watford)

Jumping up a couple of divisions to the Championship we think that Watford can capitalise on an outstanding finish to their first game of the season by winning at home against Paul Jewell's Ipswich. Watford were 2-1 down with minutes remaining before coming back to win 3-2 against rivals Crystal Palace on Saturday, sending their fans into raptures. The outer London team have been taken over by the owners of Udinese & Gianfranco Zola has been put in charge & given 4 players on loan from the Italian side with two making an immediate impact as the scorers of the two late goals on Saturday (Abdi & Vydra). As well as the Udinese loanees they've also brought in two from Spanish side Granada & made permanent signings of ex-Arsenal keeper Manuel Almunia & ('One Size') Fitz Hall from QPR - they may do more business before transfer deadline day but either way they've made a move & will be pushing for the playoffs.

Ipswich tried to be positive in the summer by moving on some old timers & replacing them with younger counterparts including signing keeper Scott Loach from rivals here Watford. We however just don't see that they've moved forwards in terms of quality & they lost both league games last year to Watford (both 2-1) & Paul Jewell is a candidate for an early job loss if his side go on a losing run like they did last year (11 losses in 15 games between October & January). Ipswich managed to salvage a point against promotion candidates Blackburn on Saturday but that was a home game & they were rather fortunate with the equaliser coming from a Jason Lowe own goal, only Michael Chopra got into double figures in terms of goals last year for the Tractor Boys & he needs more support.

Ipswich only won six times on the road last year in the league & are facing an improving Watford side (only lost one of last 13 last year) who've upgraded their side & are coming off the back of a dramatic win. The indications are that Watford should win this & odds of 5/4 are excellent value, we're going to double up the home sides & hope the away teams get a little travel sick.

Selections:
Aldershot Town to beat Exeter City at 5/4 (BetVictor)
Watford to beat Ipswich Town at 5/4 (Bet365)

Double on above selections (Aldershot & Watford) at odds of around 4/1

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