Super Swans can ruin Bantams cup dream

We were scuppered last weekend by Brian Laudrup's very weakened team selection for his Swansea side against Liverpool & it served a reminder that you have to take in as much information up to the betting event as possible before laying down your hard worked for cash. Of course that does come with the caveat of it being relevant information, if you ever read or hear stats about how teams are 'bogey sides' or a player happens to have scored plenty of times against an opposing side then try to ignore this info that may have been gathered over several years of fixtures where personnel changes have taken place & are more to do with chance than true trends - beware 'trash stats'.

Blackburn Rovers vs Leeds United

This is an interesting game with two slightly erratic teams in terms of form who can both come up with good results & then  lose to sides you'd expect them to overpower but there's good reason to believe that Blackburn may be a bit of value against poor travellers Leeds.

(Grant Hanley can dish out some punishment for Blackburn against Leeds)

On away form only Leeds are 23rd in the Championship & they've conceded an average of nearly two goals a game (30 in 16) on the road & here they'll come up against the fearsome young forward Jordan Rhodes. Rhodes isn't top scorer this season in the Championship but he is surely the best forward & maybe the league's best player full stop - he's been lethal for years & will prey on any weaknesses in the Leeds defence. The Leeds defence really is quite young with no one aged over 26 in their regular back four & whilst keeper Paddy Kenny is experienced we've never been great fans of his & overall there's a little bit of a lack of quality back there.

Blackburn meanwhile have tried to do things about improving their defence, it's of course not been helped by various managerial changes but the replacement of Paul Robinson as the starting keeper is a sensible decision & Scott Dann & Grant Hanley are some clunking great centre backs who should thrive in this league with the right managerial team behind them. Leeds lost Robert Snodgrass to Norwich in the summer & striker Luciano Becchio followed him in the January window & it means that a little too much now rests on Ross McCormack's shoulders. The two sides are likely to have a good scrap in midfield but we can see Blackburn being more able to take the chances that arise & they should be a little more rested after playing on Saturday & Tuesday versus Leeds' Sunday & Wednesday schedule. With home advantage behind them Blackburn are the team to be on & the Lancashire side can go above their West Yorkshire rivals with a win at odds of Evens.

The League Cup Final - Bradford City vs Swansea City

Ahhhh, the romance of a cup final & the chance of some lower league underdogs coming up with a famous victory against a top flight side... nah, we're not having any of it! Swansea are a very good 'footballing' side with great passing ability & are one of the country's best at retaining possession, Bradford may have been able to give some unprepared teams a hard time at Valley Parade but they are surely lambs to the slaughter on the wide open spaces of Wembley against Laudrup's men.

(Michu can help Swansea celebrate their first major cup win on Sunday)

As we mentioned at the top we were stung by Laudrup's team selection last Sunday where he rested key players including Ashley Williams, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Wayne Routledge & super striker Michu, but it looks like it'll pay dividends with those players fresh & healthy for what has been described as the biggest game in the club's history. We personally don't see why there was any need to rest players for a game taking place a week later against opposition three leagues below, particularly as it wasn't like they were taking on one of the league's big hitting sides, but it was done & it will allow a performance here of high intensity from the start & Laudrup has indicated they will take the initiative.

It's been a pretty middling season for Bradford in the league & they'll be hoping for some more magic from their top scorer Nahki Wells & another inspired performance between the sticks from experienced keeper Matt Duke who was excellent in their quarter & semi final matches. It seems difficult though & we like Swansea on the handicap with a one goal deficit at odds of 11/10 with Ladbrokes, they've managed two or more goal wins 6 times in the league this season against far better opposition & can out-pass & outplay the Bantams throughout here.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Leeds United at Evens (General)
Swansea City to beat Bradford City with -1 goal on the match handicap at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

Leeds lighting the way back to the big time?

We're back & so is the lower league action that we so missed last weekend with FA Cup games instead, we've actually only one game from below the Championship this time round but it's nice to have the betting options. Last weekend we had 3 out of 4 picks being successful (1 of 2 on the footy & 2 of 2 on the NFL) & we're remaining pretty red hot - if you're struggling for Christmas gifts for your friends & family you could always just let them know our web address! Follow us, if you aren't already, on Twitter by finding us there @LikeBuyingMoney or by clicking the Follow button above.

Derby County vs Leeds United

We were against Derby last weekend & they took a bit of a thumping against Leicester, we're not seeing too many reasons to side with them this weekend either as they host on a roll Leeds United who've won their last 3 in a row & look to have a real bounce in their step since their takeover was finalised.

(Luciano Becchio is becoming a true Leeds hero)

Derby have been solid at home with just one loss in 10 games but if you look more closely at the form you'd notice they've only won two games against opponents currently sitting in the top 10 all season & one of those was early on against Watford before the Hornets had settled down after a summer of change. The Rams have lost 3 of their last 5 & we've a suspicion that opposing teams have worked out how to stop them playing, which is by getting in & about their coveted young star Will Hughes & Leeds won't be afraid to bring out a physical aspect to the game.

After a run of 8 games without a win (although there were 4 draws & 3 losses by just a single goal in the sequence) Leeds have looked resolute & hugely tough in their past 3 games, coming up with wins against top sides in Crystal Palace & Leicester at home & then pouncing on fading Huddersfield away last week. Leeds' Luciano Becchio continues to be dependable up front & he's hit the back of the net in their last 3 games whilst Michael Tonge is playing some decent football again now back under Neil Warnock's management (previously at Sheffield United together). Odds of 21/10 with BetVictor & 2/1 at other firms are too big for a Leeds victory & it's well worth a wager this Saturday.

Coventry City vs Walsall

Down in League One, Coventry City host Walsall at the Ricoh Arena. Coventry are in 15th position but have picked up after a disastrous start whilst Walsall are in 19th & only one point behind.

(Mark Robins has got the Sky Blues back on track since his appointment)

After no victories in their first seven league games; Coventry relieved Andy Thorn of his duties & replaced him with Mark Robins. Robins faced defeat in his first match against Carlisle United but since then the record reads 6 wins, 3 draws & 3 defeats in 12 league games, with confidence now installed in the squad they have embarked on 4 wins in their last 6 in the league & 14 goals in the process. Attacking duo David McGoldrick & Carl Baker are in fine form with an impressive 15 league goals between them & seem to be enjoying their football in the process.

Walsall are really struggling at the moment & haven't recorded a victory in the league since September, that coming against Bournemouth, they came from behind last time out to draw with basement side Hartlepool United 1-1 to make it three consecutive draws which at least indicates a modicum of improvement. On the road all their victories came in the initial weeks of the season & they've found the net just 10 times in all away matches which has resulted in changes & leading scorer George Bowerman has been benched in recent weeks.

With the side brimming with confidence Coventry should have the beating of a struggling Walsall side & the best price of 37/40 with BetVictor is a value bet.

Treble time

(Taunton born (like us!) Ben Hamer can keep Charlton's goal safe against the Brighton attackers)

Finally, we know you punters love to have a treble so we'll add in an under 2.5 goals bet in the Charlton vs Brighton game in the Championship. 12 of Brighton's 20 games & 13 of Charlton's have had 2 or less goals in & Charlton now have a sequence of 5 games going under the total, in those 5 they've conceded just once & manager Chris Powell will be immensely proud of that seeing as he was a supremo defender himself.

Selections:
Leeds United to beat Derby County at 21/10 (BetVictor)
Coventry City to beat Walsall at 37/40 (BetVictor)
Under 2.5 goals in the Charlton Athletic vs Brighton & Hove Albion game at 4/5 (BetVictor)

A £10 treble at BetVictor would return £107.42 if all 3 selections are successful!

Welsh Wizards to serve up Wins

April has turned into our Monthus Horriblis after what has been a great start to 2012 betting wise. Short heads in races & draws that should have been wins in football games have become regular occurrences over the past couple of weeks & illustrate the dangers of betting at the beginning or end of seasons in any sports. It isn't a bad strategy to pare down bet sizes at this time of year as being cautious with your regular betting means you can save up for those really big bookie smashing punts for ultra confident picks. We've looked through the leagues to find some ace footy bets & although value is thin on the ground in the Premier League there are some good odds to be had elsewhere, as ever the best of luck & keep winning!

(Welsh loanee Jake Cassidy has scored 4 goals in 5 games for Tranmere)

In League One, Tranmere Rovers entertain Hartlepool at Prenton Park in a mid-table clash. Tranmere are two places & two points above Hartlepool as they both look to end their seasons on a high rather than a whimper. Tranmere had a major mid season blip but have picked up in recent months & have won six of their last nine league games making them one of the form teams in the league, in front of the home faithful they have been at their best & are unbeaten in their last ten matches. Tranmere have won their last four in a row with an aggregate scoreline of 9-1 & the loan signing of Jake Cassidy from Wolves seems to have really freshened up their attacking play. Visitors Hartlepool have also had their struggles this season & they have only won one of their last ten league games, they lost 2-1 at home to Chesterfield last weekend & boss Neale Cooper says his players should feel as disappointed as fans by recent results. Away from home the Monkey Hangers have mustered just four goals in their last seven games so Tranmere at the attractive price of evens with Paddy Power & Ladbrokes look to be the bet here.

(Cardiff stopper David Marshall will hope to keep stuttering Leeds at bay)

Here's one for you: in 7 of Cardiff City's last 8 games there have been two goals or less; for Leeds that figure is less than two goals in 10 of their last 12; in their early kickoff game on Saturday the odds for under 2.5 goals are 5/6 - all we can say is wow! This is a game where a win will confirm Cardiff's playoff place whereas a loss could leave Middlesbrough right on their tail so Malky Mackay will be determined to keep things tight & not lose. Over the whole season there have been plenty of total goals at the Cardiff City stadium but not over the past few weeks as their success has been built on a solid base & relying on some high quality midfield & forward play to nick the goals they need to keep grinding out the results. Leeds haven't kicked on with manager Neil Warnock's tenure & now they'll surely already be looking to next year & could take this as an opportunity to field some players that haven't had much recent action to see what they can do. We can certainly see a Cardiff victory here & it's likely to be a low scoring one, back the under 2.5 goals with confidence & a small wager on Cardiff 1-0 at 13/2 is worth a punt too.

(Rotherham boss Steve Evans embarks on a new challenge after a successful spell with Crawley)

In League Two, Rotherham need three points against Morecambe to keep alive their slim hopes of capturing the final play-off spot. New manager Steve Evans left promotion hopefuls Crawley Town to join Rotherham recently & this will be his first home game in charge, their current form has seen them win four of their last five before last weekend's 3-1 away defeat to formidable home side Shrewsbury Town. Rotherham are strong at home though & at the Don Valley Stadium they have won their last three in a row & four of their last five. Morecambe are going through a difficult spell currently & have only picked up one point in their last three league games & goals haven't be easy to come by, with them failing to score in three of their last five. With Steve Evans firing up the home side to get the fans on side we expect Rotherham to come out on top at the general price of 4/5.

As an additional little 3 odds on team treble we like the look of Bristol City (5/6), Notts County (8/15) & Reading (2/5) to win their respective games. Bristol City have had an upturn in fortunes & are unbeaten in 6 whilst opponents Barnsley haven't won away to them in over 20 years (12 attempts). Whilst Bury have been playing well of late they tend to be a much better home team & look up against it at Notts County who have only lost to the sides in 1st, 2nd & 3rd at home plus one blip to 20th placed Leyton Orient, they should weep the Shakers away here. The Reading pick speaks for itself, they are in incredible form & if they win here will become champions whereas Crystal Palace look to have little motivation to go all out for this one.

Selections:

Tranmere Rovers to beat Hartlepool at evens (Paddy Power/Ladbrokes)
Cardiff City v Leeds United under 2.5 goals at 5/6 (Coral & Bodog)
Cardiff City to beat Leeds United 1-0 at 13/2 (Coral & William Hill)
Rotherham to beat Morecambe at 4/5 (various)

Tasty Treble: Bristol City, Notts County & Reading all to win pays £39.30 to a £10 stake