NFL Week 14 - Under under under points Ho!

We're into week 14 of the season & there are just 4 games left in the regular season before the playoffs begin & we start suffering from the symptoms of Super Bowl fever with real ferocity, there's still plenty of football to be played though & we've got near enough a full season of form & stats to help inform our betting now. We've had a decent season so far & Houston are still rumbling along even without a quarterback carrying our 25/1 pre-season bet, our best bets for this week are below. As ever get in on the conversation by leaving comments or following us on Twitter, it's rather fun & the more people that take part the better, you can find us at @likebuyingmoney & it'll help you keep up to date with our latest posts.

 (It's all about rookie defenders wearing no.99 this week - first up is the 49ers excellent Aldon Smith)

We're starting off with a team that has lost just twice this season in the San Francisco 49ers who travel to face the Arizona Cardinals in the desert, the Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 but we still think that the Super Bowl finalists from 2009 are a bit rubbish & the 49ers deserve to be strong favourites here. Arizona's recent upturn in form has come by beating the notorious for being poor in December Cowboys last week, a team in freefall & without their 1st choice quarterback the Philadelphia Eagles & the very bad indeed St Louis Rams who have just two wins all season. In between those wins they took a 23-7 beating from this game's opponents the 49ers, they got a measly 229 offensive yards in that game against the league's best defense in terms of points given up & it shouldn't get much better for them offense in this one.

San Francisco seem to be taking real pleasure in shutting down the opposition especially on the ground, they've conceded 200 less rushing yards than any other team in the league. The linebackers deserve a lot of credit for how well the 49ers have played & are surely the best set in the league, inside linebackers NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis (questionable for this one) rank 5th & 15th in the league in terms of tackles made & rookie Aldon Smith has just 23 tackles but 9.5 sacks as he's been allowed to use his speed & power to hunt down quarterbacks to rank 8th in the league in sacks made. On offense Alex Smith has really stepped up & is looking after the ball well with just 5 interceptions thrown, he's also been using his feet well running 38 times & averaging 3.8 yards a try, it suggests he's making better decisions when under pressure rather than throing the ball up there for potential picks. The offensive line have still allowed Smith to be sacked 34 times which is way too much but they are built to help the running game & have done that well with Frank Gore continuing to monster teams at times whilst being backed up ably by the rookie Kendall Hunter who looks value at 16/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The passing game revolves around Smith finding Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree & they both have 48 receptions a piece, he should find them often enough along with the running game continuing to be productive to win here against the Cardinals & the  best value looks to be backing the 49ers to be winning at half time & full time at Evens. The total points line also looks to have been set a bit too high at 38.5, for Arizona 4 of their last 5 have been under 39 points & 5 out of 6 for the 49ers including last week when they shut out the Rams, the Cardinals will also struggle to put points on the board here, Chris Wells running game has been key to their recent improvement but he won't have any joy & under 38.5 points should be backed with confidence.

(Blocking passes, rushing the passer, hitting the passer, scaring the passer - ladies & gentleman we present to you, all the way from Texas - Mr J.J. Watts)

Another game we like the look of under points in is the Houston Texans trip to Cincinnati to face the Bengals even though the line is again at 38.5 & the Bengals have only been involved in one game with under 40 points! We like the unders bet here due to the Texans outstanding defense that rank 2nd in yards given up & points allowed, they have 3rd choice quarterback T.J. Yates starting & will again look to their excellent running game with the brilliant Arian Foster leading the charge & Ben Tate getting plenty of carries too. Because Houston will employ the rush so often they'll run the clock down & that means less time to score points. The Bengals will be looking to bounce back from a humiliating 35-7 loss to the Steelers where they were really put in their place, it won't be straight forward for their outstanding rookie quarterback-receiver partnership of Andy Dalton & A.J. Green to bounce right back from that especially as Houston will hound Dalton play after play after play. The Texans rank 2nd in number of sacks gained & although the Bengals O-Line is good at protection ranking 4th in the league in sacks allowed (behind Houston who lie 3rd in that category), we still think they'll get to Dalton, Reed & barwin have the most sacks on the team but we've been hugely impressed with rookie defensive end J.J. Watt in recent weeks & he can impose himself again. We think the Texans might sneak a win again but we're happier to tip up the under 38.5 points at 10/11 here.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to be winning at half time & full time v Arizona Cardinals at Evens (general)
Under 38.5 points in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game at 10/11 (general)
Kendall Hunter to score 1st Touchdown at 16/1 (Boylesports & Skybet) in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game
Under 38.5 points in Houston Texans v Cincinnati Bengals game at 10/11 (general)

Take the double on under points in both games above to pay odds just over 5/2