Long Run to roar back to his best in King George

Hopefully everyone will have filled their bellies on Christmas Day meaning that Boxing Day is for filling your wallets & there is some outstanding racing at Kempton including the King George where young upstart & last year's winner Long Run takes on old master & 4 time winner Kauto Star. We've got a preview of the 3 Grade 1's & they are all great races on their own merits but will also serve as key Cheltenham Festival indicators - our best bets are below.

 (Overturn beat Binocular at Newcastle & can do it again at Kempton)

Kicking off the top class action is the Feltham Novices' Chase where two of last year's top staying hurdlers try to make the step up to genuine 3 mile chase contenders. Bob's Worth was the best of the novice staying hurdlers & Nicky Henderson's charge finished off with an impressive win in the Albert Bartlett over 3 miles at Cheltenham in March, he's raced just the once over fences winning a 4 runner affair at Newbury, beating Cue Card by a short head. That win was over 2m 4f & this distance will suit Bob's Worth better as he looked to have stamina in abundance when winning at the Festival, there has to be worries around his jumping though as there were two blunders at Newbury & there won't be room for error here with a brisk pace likely. Chief rival & our fancy, David Pipe's Grands Crus was only outshone in the staying hurdle division by the incomparable Big Bucks & was streets ahead of the rest of his rivals. Grands Crus travels like a dream which is key to doing well here at Kempton & has looked like a natural jumper so far especially last time at Newbury where his jumping got slicker the faster they went, we haven't completely bought into the hype surrounding him & if Bob's Worth can improve his jumping there could be an upset - we don't see that being here though & Grands Crus to win at 11/8 can get our betting off to a good start. We certainly can't see any of the horses outside of the front two in the market really contending, Silvinacio Conti is useful but looks weighted down by his form finishing a little way behind Cue Card on his chase debut & then winning a very weak Grade 2 at Wincanton where 2 opponents fell & another 2 pulled up out of the 6 runners.

(Grands Crus can keep getting better over fences & take the Feltham)

In the Christmas Hurdle we're less than keen on the chances of last year's winner & former Champion hurdler Binocular, clearly he's brilliant on his day but has flattered to deceive on too many occasions now & was well beaten by Overturn last time out in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Overturn had been making hay against weaker opposition, galloping them into the ground before coming up against the top class Grandouet last time, we were most impressed by that display & although he was beaten by Binocular in this race last time McCain's charge looks to have grown into a stronger horse since then. There's an awful lot of buzz about Paul Nicholls' Rock On Ruby but although it has some great form, including finishing close up behind Bob's Worth & then First Lieutenant in two Cheltenham races but those were both over half a mile further & he could lack the toe needed against these two mile specialists. At odds of 5/2 it's worth backing Overturn to keep up his good form & bag his biggest win so far.

 (Reigning champion Long Run can keep his crown in the King George VI Chase)

 

The big one today is undoubtedly the King George VI Chase with Kauto Star & Long Run being taken on by Master Minded stepping up to the distance & Diamond Harry & Captain Chris trying to get to the top table of staying chasers. Master Minded is a big favourite here & when jumping fluently over two miles is one of the most exciting sights in racing but the brilliant form that saw him win the Champion Chase in outstanding style in 2008 & 09 is just a memory now, he;s still very high class but there's not an awful lot to suggest this step up will bring about a rejuvenation & at current odds Master Minded is not a betting proposition. Of the horses trying to make the step up we're keener on Captain Chris than Diamond Harry, the latter was out for the whole of last season after winning the Hennessy & although an excellent horse it's difficult to gauge how just how good & he was well beaten by the two principals in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Captain Chris won the Arkle at Cheltenham & proved that form was right when following up at Punchestown, he jumped poorly at Exeter & ended up unseating Richard Johnson at the last when holding every chance even with the suspect jumping through the race, he's got two miler speed but has already won over 4 furlongs further & looks like the step up could suit, with 1/4 odds available he's worth an each way bet at 7/1 but isn't our pick.

Kauto Star is an undoubted great & won this race 4 times in a row between 2006 & 2009 as well as the Gold Cup in 2007 & 2009, there was frivolous talk that retirement was on the cards if he didn't shine in the Betfair Chase but he came back with a vengance, jumping & travelling like a dream & beating Long Run fair & square. It blew this matchup wide open as Long Run looked to have taken up the mantle with his breathtaking victories in this & the Gold Cup, Kauto's win was his first in a year with te one before being at Down Royal in November 2010 so there are still questions to be answered. Long Run was talked of as a Gold cup horse from the moment he was brought across from France & more than justified that confidence last year, there's still room for improvement as he's a baby at just 6 years old & the youngest horse in the race & with Nicky Henderson insisting he wasn't fully wound up for Haydock can be expected to strip much fitter here. Kauto Star is 12 years old now & is clearly still right there at the top of the chasing tree but it seems a lot to ask to repeat his Haydock performance & whilst it wouldn't be the greatest shock to see him win we're staying with his half his age rival Long Run & he can win in style at odds of 11/8.

Selections:
Kempton 2.00 - Grands Crus to win at 11/8 (various)
Kempton 2.35 - Overturn to win at 5/2 (Coral)
Kempton 3.10 - Long Run to win at 11/8 (general)