NFL Week 12 - Buffalo out of Luck at Colts

We've already had 3 games this week as Thursday saw the traditional Thanksgiving games & the Texans continued to win & now stand at 10&1 for the season & the Patriots won convincingly too to keep up the chase in the AFC. We're looking at a couple of games that could prove crucial in the chase for the playoffs & there are some nice bets to be had as we try to keep the winners coming!

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

This game looks like a potential cracker with 5 of the Bills games totaling over 50 points this season & here they come up against the number one overall draft pick in the Colts' outstanding young quarterback Andrew Luck.

(Vick Ballard (taking the hand-off) could have a huge game running the ball)

The Bills have been embarrassingly bad on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 ranking 26th in total defense & have given up the 3rd most points per game (29.9 - only the Raiders & Titans are worse) & they've been particularly awful against stopping the run. What makes Buffalo's defensive malaise worse is that they invested heavily during the off season bringing in Mario Williams as their marquee signing from the Texans yet the Bills have got worse & Houston seem just as good without Williams. Buffalo's weakness against the run could bite them here even though you'd think of the Colts as a passing team, Andrew Luck is happy to take off & has already run in 5 TDs himself plus we reckon Vick Ballard could rack up the rushing yards in this one too.

Buffalo would maybe be more competitive if their offense was a little more explosive but it's been merely average this season even with some excellent running performances from the emerging C.J. Spiller - both Spiller & fellow running back Fred Jackson have slightly injury concerns here (Knee & concussion respectively). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is only ordinary & his stats this season look slightly skewed thanks to facing some pretty average teams at times, their 4 wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona & Miami...

The Colts have also beaten some poor sides but have added the notable scalps of the Minnesota Vikings & Green Bay Packers too & have only lost at home once from 5 games so far, there is a real sense of optimisim in Indianapolis & they'll feel they can bounce back after being slapped down by the Patriots last week. The Colts rank an impressive 5th in offensive yards gained per game & Luck has passed for 300+ yards in 5 out of 10 games which are excellent numbers for a rookie. Luck has developed a great relationship with key receiver Reggie Wayne & the spectacular catch maker already has 1,003 receiving yards - he'll be a favourite target here.With home field advantage (& the fact we haven't read too much into the blowout loss against New England) we're confident that the Colts can easily cover the -3 point handicap against a brittle Buffalo side.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

This game between two of the big name sides in the NFL is one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams needing to win this one to keep up the pace in their tight divisions, the Giants have stumbled in their last couple & are looking to bounce back after their bye week whilst the Packers look to keep rolling after 5 straight wins.

(Touchdown! Jordy Nelson! At least we hope that's the commentary)

There are similarities in both teams as they are largely reliant on the performances of their quarterbacks & their defenses creating turnovers & it has proven a successful strategy as they have taken the last two Super Bowls. Of course relying so heavily on your passer means that if he has a bad game then you invariably lose & that has been the Giants' problem with Eli Manning's form dipping markedly in their last 4 games after a great start to the season & they lost to the Steelers & Bengals after receiving scares from the Redskins & Cowboys. Manning is a top quarterback & a real big game player (as two Super Bowls prove) but we'd always take Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers if we had to pick between the two, he's outstanding  leads the league with a passer rating of 107.3 whilst Manning is down at a mediocre 81.8.

Green Bay are the only team to have beaten the Houston Texans this year & also prevailed against Chicago (only other loss was to Houston) which shows they are right up there in terms of the best teams this season & they've come back well after shock, close losses to Seattle & Indianapolis. The Packers could certainly do wit improving their offensive line which has given up 32 sacks & is a big reason their running game is relatively ineffective, they're fortunate that Rodgers doesn't panic under pressure & their defensive pass rush is a weaon on the other side with 33 sacks of their own. Green Bay's defense will be missing star linebacker Clay Matthews but they'll still fancy they can get pressure on Eli Manning & if they do his slump could continue. Key for the Packers is that they limit star receiver Victor Cruz as much as possible, he's Manning's favourite target by far whereas Rodgers has a wide range of targets to pick from though Jordy Nelson may be the man to concentrate on now he's fit again, he's a big price at 8/1 to bag the first touchdown.

New York do have the home advantage but they will need to have worked on Eli Manning's game plenty in their bye week because he's looking unfocused at times & we would much rather be with the Packers in this one with a handy 3 point handicap lead.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Buffalo Bills with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Green Bay Packers to beat New York Giants with +3 points on the handicap at 5/6 (General)
Jordy Nelson to score first touchdown in Packers @ Giants game at 8/1 (Various)

Shooutouts in North London & North Carolina

We're feeling a bit happier now as our success rate over the last couple of weeks has improved as the football season has started to mature a little, those few more games really make a difference as you get to see how teams perform against different styles & quality & means betting can be that bit more informed. We were delighted to see Real Madrid keep pushing to the end on Tuesday night & Bradford did things a little more easily as the pair brought in both our bets - this Thursday we're going back to Europe as we look at the Europa League & Spurs' opening assignment plus NFL betting as the New York Giants travel to Carolina.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Lazio

 (Jermain Defoe is relishing currently being the main man for club & country)

Spurs start their Europa League assault against Italian side Lazio at White Hart Lane, manager Andre Villas-Boas won the trophy in 2011 with Porto & has vowed to take the competition seriously unlike previous boss Harry Redknapp. Spurs won their first game of the season on Sunday vs Reading thanks to a brace from in-form striker Jermain Defoe & he will likely lead the line again with Emmanuel Adebayor sidelined. French captain Hugo Lloris & Clint Dempsey are likely to make their first starts for the club & fringe players Michael Dawson, Steven Caulker, Tom Huddlestone & Andros Townsend could feature

Lazio have made an impressive start to the Serie A season with three straight wins against Atalanta, Palermo & Chievo Verona. Brazilian midfielder Hernanes & veteran striker Miroslav Klose have scored six of their seven goals so far & they should line-up in a similar fashion to the one that beat Chievo. Both sides are packed with high quality attacking options & with Spurs' record of conceding & scoring in every game so far this season the 10/11 on both teams to score looks a solid bet.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers came up with a nice result when turning over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday & they now host another of the NFC's big hitters as champions the New York Giants look to continue to put points on the board after outgunning Tampa Bay 41-34 at the weekend. The Buccaneers actually provide us with a bit of a form guide as Carolina took them on in week one in a very different contest where the Tampa Bay prevailed with a 16-10 victory in a rather dour affair. The Panthers really struggled to run the ball in that week one game & that could be the Giants' key to slowing them down as quarterback Cam Newton is just about the most mobile starter in the league & keeps any defense guessing. The Giants are especially good in the pass rush though meaning they'll be coming after Newton with regularity but the defense will need to be sharp as they're missing a couple of starters on offense.

(Brandon LaFell hauls one in against the Saints as he gains 90 receiving yards)

The Giants' starting running back Ahmad Bradshaw is out with a foot injury & Andre Brown will line up as starter instead, he did well against Tampa Bay with 71 rushing yards & there's no reason he won't get some success here. Bigger for the Giants is that key receiver Hakeem Nicks is out - he looked awesome on Sunday when gaining 199 receiving yards & will be missed here. Eli Manning will also be missing another receiver to pass to with Domenik Hixon out & that should mean that Victor Cruz gets a very heavy workload & he should get a touchdown as New York are very much a passing team - odds of 4/7 for him to score reflect this.

Although the Panthers lost to Tampa Bay you'd be hard pushed to say they aren't a better team & they have two receivers who could really hurt New York's still ropey secondary in the speedy & dependable Steve Smith & 3rd year pro Brandon LaFell who looks like he might have a breakout year. LaFell could really cause the Giants some problems as he's a big physical receiver & they couldn't cope with a similar type in Vincent Jackson last time out. The Panthers will need DeAngelo Williams to be on his game at running back though as Jonathan Stewart looks like missing out, there are points to be scored against New York & so long as they don't fall behind like they did against the Saints they could win this one nicely. The Giants are more likely to be affected by the short preparation time as they have to travel & being without Bradshaw & Nicks could be the killer blows, backing the Carolina Panthers to prevail at odds of 5/6. In the touchdown markets we do really like Brandon LaFell & he's 11/1 to score the first TD with Ladbrokes - it looks worth a small wager.

Selections:
Both teams to score Spurs vs Lazio at 10/11 (BlueSquare)
Carolina Panthers to beat New York Giants at 5/6 (Various)
Brandon LaFell to score first Touchdown at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Season Opener 2012 - Cowboys can Herd in Giants

It's here, the 2012 NFL season is upon us & starts off with a classic matchup as the current champions the New York Giants play host to maybe the most famous team in football in the Dallas Cowboys on Wednesday night. We've a couple of selections for the game & we're looking to exploit the bookies' ignorance of some preseason pointers with a hugely overpriced touchdown scorer. We'll be picking out selections & giving write ups for games right through the season & you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney either by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above, if you like what you see please tell your friends & family (or even random strangers!) about us.

(Jason Pierre-Paul & Justin Tuck are the league's best pairing of defensive ends - dominating)

The Giants are the reigning champions & deservedly so after overcoming some of the best teams in football in the playoffs, first of all taking down the poor travelling Atlanta Falcons at home then taking down the Packers' high powered offense & the 49er's mean defense on the road before besting the Patriots in the Super Bowl. It was certainly an impressive finish to the season for the Giants but they hadn't even looked like making the post season a couple of weeks before & had to beat their rivals here, the Dallas Cowboys, in their final game in order to win the NFC East. The Cowboys are becoming notorious for failing when it comes to December & should prove a tougher opposition at this stage of the season particularly as the Giants may only have Victor Cruz as an established & fit receiver to aim for. Now there are certainly worse targets for Eli Manning to have to pass to but with Hakeem Nicks having missed preseason & slightly doubtful here & Mario Manningham traded away an awful lot will fall on Cruz's shoulders, he could do it but the Cowboys have improved their secondary in the off-season & may double cover Cruz.

(It's worth chancing that WR Dwayne Harris can emerge as a first teamer for the Cowboys)

The Cowboys have brought in Brandon Carr from Kansas City at cornerback on a big money deal & also traded up in the draft to take the exciting Morris Claiborne at cornerback too & it was good to see the team recognise their weakness as they gave up too many big passing plays in 2011. The Cowboys have problems of their own at receiver with Dez Bryant in trouble with law in the off-season & Jason Witten is coming back after a lacerated spleen suffered in pre-season. That means that Dwayne Harris, a virtual unknown on the side who gained no receptions in his rookie year may get his chance after gaining 3 touchdowns in preseason (the only Cowboy to get a receiving TD), he looks certain to line up at least. The Cowboys can run the ball but it's rare that they get rushing touchdowns, gaining just 5 last season compared to 33 passing scores & in this game they won't have to deal with the Giants' star cornerback in Prince Amukamara who looks to miss out with injury. Harris is basically being underrated here, he'll be feeling confident & odds of 28/1 for him to score the first TD & 5/1 to score at anytime are huge.

Both sides have excellent pass rushes & we're looking forwards to seeing Justin Tuck & Jason Pierre-Paul for the Giants & maybe the league's best defensive player in DeMarcus Ware for the Cowboys - they will all be looking to sack the quaretrback & it could be a worrying evening for Manning & Romo. The Giants ranked outright last in the running game last year & with the Cowboys improving in their secondary we can see them sending everything at Eli Manning, the Giants were only average until their outstanding run in last season & it may be worth going with the Cowboys on the handicap as they get a 4 point head start. The Cowboys have DeMarco Murray coming back in at running back after injury in week 14 last season, he had an excellent rookie season once breaking in as number one & the Cowboys looked a better & less predictable outfit with him in the side.

Selections:
Dwayne Harris to score 1st Touchdown at 28/1 & to score at anytime at 5/1 (Bet365)
Dallas Cowboys to win with +4 point head start at 10/11 (general)

Super Bowl - Giants can Cruz to victory over Patriots

After a gruelling season that often looked like it might not get underway due to a labour dispute between the players & owners we're down to just two teams from 32 for the 2012 Super Bowl with the New England Patriots up against the New York Giants in a rematch from 2008. This promises to be a great game with both teams having potent pasing offenses with excellent quarterbacks & receivers, their strengths are somewhat similar & the deciding factor in the game could be outstanding individual performances, mistakes or clever coaching decisions. We're going to have an in depth look at both sides & try to come up with the key info to give an advantage when placing your bets on the game. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney where we talk about the NFL & other sports, either find us on Twitter or simply click the follow button at the top of the page.

(Tom Brady is searching for his 4th Super Bowl ring with the Patriots)

The New England Patriots really do walk their own path, whilst every other team seems to go for 6' 2" plus wide receivers they had the league leader with the 5' 9" Wes Welker & instead they've led the way with the use of tight ends with the physically dominating Rob Gronkowski & also Aaron Hernandez causing havoc in opposing defenses with their exceptional catching abilities. The big problem for them this week is that Gronkowski who has had a huge 20 touchdown catches in regular & postseason combined is listed as questionable for Sunday with an ankle injury sustained against the Ravens, if he was out it would be a big blow & even if he does play there have to be doubts whether he's fit enough to do the damage he usually does. They still have an outstanding passing game thanks to having an all-time great quarterback in Tom Brady & a great offensive line too that only allowed 32 sacks even though they attempted to pass over 600 times in the regular season & just 1 sack in their two playoff games against two of the best defenses around. It helps that Brady doesn't hold on to the ball for too long as they tend to go for medium gains in the passing game & get 1st downs rather than down the field passes for touchdowns. Sticking to that style will be important even if they are without Gronkowski as the Giants are keen to use their swarming pass rush to put pressure on Brady at all times, if he holds onto the ball for too long he will be punished.

(We think Victor Cruz can have a big game against New England's secondary)

The Giants pass game is quite different from New England's with Eli Manning having a strong arm & the receivers to get deep down the field & leap up to catch the ball even when covered with receivers, we've seen Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham do it all season & with success. Those receivers can also do it in the shorter passing game but the real danger they offer is down the field, Travis Beckum a tight end with just 5 regular season catches has stepped up with 7 postseason grabs & will be looked to again in short yardage situations when they go to pass. The Giants only allowed 28 sacks in the regular season & the Patriots are only average at getting pressure on the passer & that could be telling because if Eli gets time in the pocket & his receivers get downfield they will surely punish the Patriots' weak secondary that saw them give up a league worst 79 passing plays of 20+ yards. At 11/10 to score at anytime Victor Cruz looks a decent bet, he had 10 receptions last week against the 49ers top defense & although he didn't score he had 9 regular season touchdowns & over 1500 receiving yards even though he didn't begin the season as a regular starter. Eli Manning has improved as a passer since winning in the Super Bowl 4 years ago but it would still take a fool to say he's better than Brady, they have very different passing games & although the Patriots edge it here the better matchup today is definitely for the Giants.

(BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the Patriots chief rushing threat & looks overpriced to score a TD)

Both teams have pass first offenses but the running game could still prove significant & they won't want to become predictable & easier to defend by abandoning the run. The Patriots acually have a respectable rushing game & ranked 20th in the regular season even though their backs aren't exactly stars with BenJarvus Green-Ellis & little Danny Woodhead doing a steady job whilst rarely being spectacular. Woodhead is looked to in the passing game reasonably often but is rarely used when close to the goal line so Green-Ellis makes a great deal of appeal to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11, he has been handed the ball on no less than 28 occasions in the two playoff games & he managed to run one in against the Ravens last week to add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Giants rushers have been simply useless this year & whilst we've heard many people say they can come good here we just don't see it, they have two backs who've been respectable in the past but this year both Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs have failed to pick up enough yards to make an impact leaving the Giants ranked a league worst 32nd in total yards & average yards gained rushing. They don't do a bad job when close to the goal line often managing to power their way in in short yardage situations but they rarely get the big gains needed to alleviate pressure from the passing game. The Giants don't tend to abandon the rush though meaning New England will have to defend against it but we'd be surprised if they manage much over 100 yards rushing in the whole game although it could still be important in gaining the first downs they need.

(Jason Pierre-Paul & the rest of the Giants pass rush could be the key to winning here)

The area of the game that we see this really swinging to the Giants is on defense as we're big fans of their pass rush, especially the defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul & Justin Tuck, Pierre-Paul has been outstanding with 16.5 sacks & regularly forcing passers into making mistakes. Those two are backed up by Mathias Kiwanuka with the tackles Joseph & Canty getting a great push up front to create the sack opportunities. Further back Antrel Rolle continues to show he's a top safety & had a career high 96 tackles this year, he still doesn't get huge amounts of interceptions but has the athleticism to cover most receviers when they go deep, he may need to use that athleticism if the Patriots look to the pacy Deion Branch to cover for Gronkowski's injury problems. The Patriots are poor at the cornerback & safety positions, Devin McCourty might be their best in the secondary & he's had a lot of tackles but has dropped right down in picks with just 2 interceptions compared to 7 in his rookie year. They are better closer to the line & the huge Vince Wilfork continues to be a pleasure to watch using his size to dominate the opposing linemen & he even got his 1st two interceptions of his 8 year career this season & picking up 19 & 28 yards returning on the two occasions. Linebacker Rob Ninkovich has had his best season & seems to have the pace & power to cause problems all over the field for an opposing defense, the Patriots will try to get him through to Eli Manning on plenty of plays. Both teams rank high in interceptions with New England having 23 in the regular season & the Giants having 20, the Patriots' figure is probably increased due to them having such good leads at times & teams having to throw desperate passes, they still have to grab them out of the air though so it's impressive, we don't see them out-muscling the Giants' recivers to get those picks too easily though. In terms of special teams both have pretty decent units with their returners being steady & unlikely to cough the ball up too often, Devin Thomas for the Giants is probably the most dangerous with safe hands & some great raw pace. Kicking-wise Lawrence Tynes has proven that he has the coolness in big game situations for the Giants & Stephen Gostkowski looks to be highly competent with a decent range for the Patriots, you would have no qualms about sending either on to kick a last minute field goal to win the game.

(Eli Manning can celebrate a second Super Bowl victory over the Patriots)

This isn't an easy one to call especially with Tom Brady having won 3 out of the 4 Super Bowls he's been to with only the game against these opponents being unsuccessful, the Patriots were superior in the regular season with the Giants only just squeezing into the playoffs but New York look to be the side on a roll & we're with the Giants at odds of 13/10. The Patriots didn't manage one regular season win against a side that ended up with a winning record yet even with that weak schedule they still had the 2nd worst defense in the league in yards given up, they lost to the Giants earlier in the year & although they have a great offense Gronkowski is key to that & either him missing or not fully fit is a big blow. Eli Manning is exuding confidence whereas Brady didn't throw a touchdown last week for the first time in 36 games in the divisional playoff against the Ravens, the Giants will be feeling great after going to the NFC's number one & two seeded teams & beating them in their own back yards. Tom Coughlin's men have put behind their dodgy mid season run of form & look to have all of the momentum, if they can win the value lies with bcaking Victor Cruz to get the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award at 14/1, it most likely goes to the quarterback so a saver on Eli Manning at 2/1 with VictorBet isn't a bad option, we just feel Cruz has the explosive sort of plays to capture the voters imagination & he could really burn the Patriots.

Selections:
New York Giants to beat New England Patriots at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
New York Giants to win by 7-12 points at 13/2 (PaddyPower & Ladbrokes)
Victor Cruz to win MVP award at 14/1 (general)
Victor Cruz to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11 (Betfred)

NFL Championship games - One step from the Super Bowl

A great season of football is just about winding up as the final four teams battle it out for a place in this year's Super Bowl & it means two great matchups with two of the best defenses up against some great offenses led by previous Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Tom Brady & the New England Patriots host the tough, grizzled Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game & the New York Giants have to travel across the country to come up against the NFC's best defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We've got both games previewed & some bets picked out in order to be able to enjoy it even more, as ever you can also follow us on Twitter by clicking the button above where we talk about sports in general & keep you informed of our blog updates.

(Our favourite Patriot little Danny Woodhead can help them sneak past the Ravens)

The AFC Championship is up first & sees two teams who make the playoffs pretty much perennially in the New England Patriots & Baltimore Ravens but the last time either got to the Super Bowl was in the 2007 season when the Patriots lost to the Giants, whereas Batimore have only made it once, in the 2000 season & they beat the Giants. This season the Patriots haven't lost since week 9 (again the Giants!) & have put up extraordinary point scoring performances, putting up 30+ points in 12 of 16 regular season games, they ran over Dever last week & have to be feeling confident. The Ravens also had a great regular season losing just one more than the Patriots as they went 12 & 4 & swept the tough AFC North, they managed to put away the Texans last week with a combination of great defense & Texans mistakes but they were less than impressive on offense, that could be a problem today as Brady always finds a way to score.

(Tight end Ed Dickson offers some value to score for the Ravens)

We've always made it clear that we don't rate Joe Flacco as a quarterback & last week did nothingto change our minds, admittedly he threw two TDs but did start off in awesome field position & only just got over 50% with his completion rate & just 176 passing yards, it wasagainst a very good Texans defense but better quarterbacks would've found ways to counter them. To be fair to Flacco he has only an average to good set of receivers with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith offering the deep threat whilst back Ray Rice gets passed to more than anyone else. They have improved this year at tight end with Ed Dickson coming to the fore but still don't match up to many other teams in production at the position & certainly not the Patriots with Gronkowski & Hernandez. Dickson offers a little value in Paddy Power's 'first to score a touchdown for their team market' at 7/1, he got 5 during the season & is a viable alternative to the all-action Ray Rice. The Ravens offensive strength lies in thir running game & Rice is outstanding but if they need to score quicly they'll haveto go the air & that's unlikely to be sucessful.

(Mr Dependable Wes Welker (no. 83) can get us first touchdown scorer money again)

This is a pretty good matchup for New England as they're dreadful at defending the pass but the Ravens can't pass & they've only lost at home once all year whilst the Ravens 4 defeats have all comeon the road. The Ravens are great all round on defense but are probably a bit better stopping the run than the pass, Lardarius Webb has been exceptional at cornerback recently but he'll have a size mismatch if he covers Welker this week & that could be crucial. Pretty much noone's been able to stop Tom Brady pasing this year & he'll once again look to hit his physically dominant tight ends & Welker, Chad Ochocinco might even get a pass or two thrown his way although Brady's targeted him sparingly so far. The Patriots areloking so confident right now & Brady's arm is on fire, with homefield advantage it looks like they'll overpower the Ravens right from the off & can be beating them at halftime & fulltim at odds of 4/6. It's a different matter whether the Patriots can achieve ultimate success down at Indianapolis but it looks a safe bet that their superior offense can at least get them to the big game. It again looks like the league's leading receiver Wes Welker is being underestimated, odds of 15/2 for him to score the first touchdown & should be taken - he can deliver just like last week.

(Are Tom Coughlin's red hot Giants on their way to Super Bowl rings?)

The NFC Championship game is priced up with both teams pretty near Evens with the San Francisco 49ers marginal favourites courtesy of being at home, hosting the New York Giants at Candlestick Park. Both sides upset the odds last week with the 49ers beating our Super Bowl fancies New Orleans in dramatic late fashion whilst the Giants travelled to Lambeau Field & monstered the Packers in their own stadium in a most impressive win. These sides met here earlier in the season with the 49ers winning 27-20 but that was the start of a little sticky path fo the Giants where they lost 4 in a row, they've well & truly bounced back & have played some dominant football in recent weeks. Eli Manning has started getting a little cocky & is playing well enough to back his mouth up, he has two truly great receivers in Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz & they are ably backed up by Mario Manningham  & rookie tight end Jake Ballard. Even the Giants' running game which ranked dead last in 32nd during the regular season has started to produce in the las few games with Bradshaw & Jacobs making the most of their size.

(The 49ers Vernon Davis is used to celebrating touchdowns)

San Francisco took advantage of a largely soft schedule during the regular seeason but still came up with victories over Pittsburgh, Detroit & the Giants whe they did face better opposition, they rarely scored too heavily (over 30 points just 3 times) but were superb on defense, particularly in the red zone - making opponents settle for field goals & not allowing them to run the ball with any effectiveness. That goes partly down to excellent drafting with their rookie linebacker Aldon Smith looking like one of the league's outright outstanding defenders, he had 14 regular season sacks & is lightning fast & strong as an ox. We can't say we've ever been sold on Alex Smith at quarterback, he's had plenty of chances before this season but never taken them, he is however playing his best footbal right now & has been a model of consistecy & efficiency throwing just 5 interceptions all year with 20 TDs. Smith near enough passes exclusively to Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree, Davis had a monster game last week & can take advantage of the weak Giants secondary this week, he's Evens to get a touchdown at anytime with Skybet.

 (Victor Cruz can catch & run in this one just like he's been doing all season)

The 49ers season has been based on great defense & Frank Gore's powerful runs but they've moved a little away from that in the past two games as they allowed the league's worst scorers, St. Louis, to get 27 points in a meaningful game & conceded 32 to an excellent Saints offense last week, that's hardly terrible news but those were the two highest point totals they conceded all year & it's a trend they can't afford to continue. The Giants have really started to perform when it matters, the hosted the Falcons in their first playoff game this year & held them to just two points & were supremely impressive against Green Bay, those were both better offenses than the 49ers & with everything starting to click we have to side with New York & Eli to do the business & clinch the NFC Championship at 6/5. In the first touchdown scorer market the value lies going with the Giants' Victor Cruz at 10/1, he had 9 TDs in the regular season & a massive 1,536 receiving yards, he's their number one & should be shorter than that.

Selections:
New England Patriots to be beating Baltimore Ravens at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (various)
Ed Dickson to score 1st Ravens touchdown at 7/1 (Paddy Power)

New York Giants to beat San Francisco at 6/5 (Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Victor Cruz  to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet)
Vernon Davis to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet)

Ravens to suffer clipped wings at hands of Texans

Last night's NFL playoff games saw some good tipping for us with 4 out of 5 bets up including Wes Welker scoring the first touchdown in the Broncos v Patriots game at a big price of 15/2, we're trying to follow up in tonight's games that include reigning champions the Green Bay Packers taking on the New York Giants.

(The defenses will be key & the Ravens' D is as strong as it gets)

In Sunday's first game the Houston Texans travel to face off against the Baltimore Ravens in a game where both sides have very similar strengths as they are both best in the running game & their excellent defenses. The Texans defense improved from being statistically th 2nd worst in the league last year to 2nd best this year & their signed this season defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips deserves enormous credit as well as the new talent they brought in, we mentioned J.J. Watts last week as a favourite of ours & the rookie defensive end came up with a great performance as they beat Cincinnati in a hugely professional display. Watts will look to get after Ravens passer Joe Flacco at every opportunity & rightly so, as far as we're concerned the Ravens succeed in spite of the man under centre rather than because of him. Flacco is distinctly average & it's hard to see Baltimore wining Super Bowls with him, it's a pity as they have a top running back in Ray Rice & legendary defenders in Ray Lewis, Ed Reed & Terrell Suggs. Flacco isn't helped by the lack of depth they have in receivers as they look primarily to Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith, that will help the Texans as they'll go to man coverage to crowd those two out of the game. The key to the Ravens offense will as usual be their 5"8 rusher Ray Rice, he's quick & extremely elusive, getting big plays to the outside & right through the middle, Rice is great but maybe not quite so great as the Texans' main man.

(Power, pace & plenty of moves - Arian Foster is the complete back)

The Texans' running back Arian Foster seems to get better & better, he had a few injury problems at the start of the season but once he got into his stride was unstoppable, ending up with 10 TDs on the ground & 2 receiving scores. Foster's a lot bigger than Rice at 6"1 but he's still elusive as he has some great moves & excellent vision, he is thriving as he knows their success rests largely on his shoulders now they havea 3rd choice quarterback thanks to unfortunate luck with injuries. It is almost inevitable that Foster will score at  some point & Ladbrokes offer of 4/6 is generous - take it. Having T.J. Yates at centre isn't ideal but he coped very well last week & their playbook tends not to rely on him pasing to much anyway, they ran the ball more than anyone apart from the Broncos in the regular season. Not passing means that th Ravens will struggle to creae the turnovers that they are so good at usually & when the Texans do go to th air they have one of the premier receivers around in Andre Johnson, if he has the ball he won't be coughing it up with fumbles. An extra bonus for Houston has been the emergence of secondary running back Ben Tate & his good performances ensure that Foster doesn't get worn out from aways running the ball, he's better than the Ravens backup Ricky Williams & could be a factor. The Ravens cearly hold an advantage, they are at home & rested last week & the colder conditions should suit them slightly better but these are closely matched teams. Although Baltimore won 29-14 in their regular season meeting that game was very close until the 4th quarter & Arian Foster's season hdn't quite got going at that point, the ods available mean that we're happy to take the Ravens on & instead back Houston for the upset at odds of 3/1.

(Eli Manning is still in the hunt for his 2nd Super Bowl)

The New York Giants hae to go to Lambeau Field & face the formidable Green Bay Packers after their demolition of the Atlanta Falcons last week, this won't be so easy & we can't imagine the Packers scoring will be limited to just a safety. If the Giants could continue to run the ball like last week it would bode well but that was an anomaly as they ranked dead last in the rushing game in the regular season, they'll continue to go to Eli Manning who has been deadly down the back stretch with powerful & accurate throws to his receivers. Manning will need to be accurate as this Green Bay defense is built for interceptions & takeaways, they ranked last in passing yards conceded but had 8 more interceptions than anyone else, averaging near enough two picks a game. The stats ranking them last are slightly miseading as teams were having to go to the air as they were left trailing by the scary Packer offense, clearly the Packers secondary is not elite but it isn't dreadful either.

(We're hoping to see Jermichael Finley (no.88) making the Lambeau Leap)

When they met earlier in the year, at New York, there were only 3 points to separate them as Green Bay prevailed, that implies another close game but overall the Packers are more convincing having lost just once all year & quarterback Aaron Rodgers has now had 3 weeks rest after they played backup Matt Flynn in the last regular season game. Rodgers choice of receivers to pass to is amazing & he will almost certainly be able to burn the rubbish Giants secondary by going to any of Donald Driver, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson & the returning Greg Jennings. Finley looks likely to be able to exploit the Giants in the short to medium game & will look to create mismatches aginst linebackers, he's an awesome 6/5 to score at anytime with SkyBet, he can also be backed at 10/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The Giants do have weapons & receivers Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz can have good games, they'll need their defense to be firing on all cylinders to stand a chance & Jason Pierre-Paul will be doing his best, he's a star but it will likely be a long day for him & the rest of the defense unless the running game gets going for the Giants & they can manage the clock. At 30/100 the Packers are probably a little too short but backing them to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 is reasonable & looks the way to go.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Baltimore Ravens at 3/1 (Ladbrokes & Victor Chandler)
Arian Foster to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Green Bay Packers to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Jermichael Finley to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (SkyBet) & to score 1st TD at 10/1 (various)

NFL Wildcard Round - Steelers to dispose of Denver

Houston & New Orleans won their games on Saturday as expected & we're now on to the final two wildcard games with Denver hosting Pittsburgh & Atlanta travelling to New York to face the Giants, we think one of the underdogs can win but it shouldn't be Denver unless Tim Tebow really can get some divine intervention going!

(The scene that Steelers fans don't want to see - Roethlisberger on the ground)

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Denver as 5th seeds to face the Broncos as 4th seeds in the AFC, that seeding doesn't really indicate the strength of these sides as Denver only had an 8 & 8 season in the mediocre AFC West whilst the Steelers had a great 12 & 4 season in the AFC's best division the AFC North, the Broncos automatically got seeded higher as tehy won their division. It should be noted that the Broncos have overachieved just by getting to the playoffs, after winning just 1 of their first 5 they turned to unorthodox quarterback Tim Tebow & won 7 of their next 8, often from unlikely positions after trailing with just moments left. Tebow has clearly helped them in clutch situations but it's rarely been through the use of his arm as the team trailed in 31st place in terms of passing yards but led the league in rushing yards, thanks to the quarterback option offense  the excellent back Willis McGahee who was just one yard shy of hitting 1200 on the ground. The Broncos only scored over 20 points in 3 of the 11 games since their bye week & that looks highly unlikely to be increased against the league's best defense, the Steelers are giving up just 14.2 points a game & less than 280 yards of total offense.

(Wide receiver Mike Wallace can continue to star for Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh have stars on both sides of the ball with Troy Polamalu, James Harrison & Brett Keisel standing out on defense & quarterback Ben Roethlisberger teaming up with his talented wide receiver corps on offense including Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders & the evergreen Hines Ward. The Steelers do have problems on offense though as Big Ben is suffering from a sprained ankle & first choice running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the playoffs with a torn ACL. They should be able to cope withour Mendenhall as they have a good backup in the powerful Isaac Redman but they need to keeep Roethlisberger as protected as possible against the Broncos very good pass rush. The real heroes in the Broncos push to the playoffs has been their defense with outstanding rookie linebacker Von Miller & defensive end Elvis Dumervil combining for 20 quaarterback sacks this year. The Steelers really will want to keep Ben as healthy as possible & hope his ankle recuperates as they go through the playoffs, we wouldn't be surprised to see them very aggresive early on in order to establish a commanding lead so they can remove him from the game. Antonio Brown has really started to establish himself in the Steelers' passing game & it wouldn't surprise us to see him get a touchdown but Mike Wallace is their number one at the moment  the 7/1 on him to score the first touchdown looks a nice bet. Denver scored just 3 points against the Chiefs in theirr final regular season game & it was one they were aiming to win, it looks like being an uphill struggle all day & Pittsburgh should be able to comfortably cover the -7.5 point spread on offer at 20/21 with Ladbrokes.

(Atlanta Falcons fans won't be complaining if they see catches like this from Julio Jones)

In the earlier game the Atlanta Falcons take their talented offense to face off against the 2008 Super Bowl winners the New York Giants. The historically strong Giants defense has not done too well this year, ranking only 27th overall & just 29th against the pass & that can largely be put down to some atrocious play against the deep pass, we think that spells trouble against the Falcons who ranked 8th in passing in the regular season & have potent threats in Roddy White & especially Julio Jones when they go down the field. With tight end Tony Gonzalez still hoovering up any short passes & Michael Turner doing it in the running game as well as when he comes out of the backfield the Falcons can move the ball anyway they want. The Falcons  do tend to be much better at home & the Giants are comingoff of two nice wins but it was only 3 weeks ago that they lost to the mediocre at best Washington Redskins & the Cowboys did somewhat implode (as usual) at the end of the season. Passer Eli Manning has carried their offensive game as they rank last in the rush & that isn't good news in the playoffs, having a one note game makes it easy to defend a team & we can't be having the Giants as favourites here. If the Falcons were at home we think they'd be strong favourites with the bookmakers, their away form is a little worrisome but they did win at Detroit earlier in the year which isn't easy & we want to be with the Falcons to beat the Giants at 6/4, in terms of touchdown scorers we think siding with Julio Jones at 9/1 to score the first touchdown is the way to go.

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 20/21 (Ladbrokes)
Mike Wallace to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Steelers v Broncos game
Atlanta Falcons to beat New York Giants at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Julio Jones to score 1st Touchdown at 9/1 (various) in Falcons v Giants game

Double up those touchdown scorers to get massive odds of 79/1

NFL Week 17 - Eli Manning to lead Giants to the playoffs

It's the final round of regular season games in the NFL meaning there are plenty of games that have little bearing on the playoff picture & punters need to be mindful of teams resting key players in preparation for the knockout stages. Other games have much bigger significance with them helping to decide the final few teams to go to the playoffs or potential seedings meaning teams get byes from the 1st week of action or gain homefield advantage. We've taken these factors along with overall & current form of the teams as well as where there are favourable matchups on offense & defense to find the best bets for this week.

(Justin Smith & his 49ers defense can smother up the Rams - it's not difficult)

We're starting out at St. Louis where the Rams host the San Francisco 49ers as the away team try to win to secure the NFC's No. 2 seed & that important first round bye, that shouldn't be in any danger of not happening as the 49ers have lost just 3 times this year whilst the Rams have won just twice. Last time the teams met the excellent 49ers defense shut out the Rams in a 26-0 win & St. Louis again failed to put a single point on the board last week against the Steelers. In terms of offensive yards per game the Rams are ranked 2nd last but in points gained they're the worst by a distance with just 166 all season at an average of 11.1 per game & they've scored 20 points or more just twice, that is not good news against this 49ers defense that lead the league in points given up a game at just 13.5 & only let in their first rushing touchdown of the year last week. The 49ers have the best run defense statistically & that's unfortunate for Rams running back Steven Jackson as usually so much of their game depends on him, they may also be without quarterback Sam Bradford who wasn't involved last week & may well be rested again here. So we've identified that the Rams aren't going to contribute too many points in this one, maybe a couple of field goals if they're lucky so we should back total Rams points to be under 13 at 5/6 with Betfred.

The 49ers aren't exactly offesive powerhouses themselves, instead relying on their ace defense led by top defensive end Justin Smith, they often settle for field goals & luckily have one of the league's best kickers in David Ackers. They should be able to score against the Rams as St.Louis are jsut average on defense but it's unlikely to be too high scoring for the 49ers either who may well bench their starters if they get a two touchdown lead. The total points line is set at 35.5 & as we can't seeSt. Louis contributing much at all backing under total points of 35.5 is the way to go.

(Happy - the Pathers' quarterback Cam Newton, he can be after this one too)

In a game that only has significance to the playoff picture if the 49ers have an unlikely loss in our first game the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers in the Superdome where the home side Saints have won all of their games so far. It's an interesting one as the Saints have been talking about resting their superstar quarterback Drew Brees (as they think it's so likely the 49ers will win their game), we don't think that's too likely as the man who's just broken the long held season passing yards record won't want to give that up a week later by not playing & allowing the Patriots' Tom Brady to surpass him. It is however a consideration & when takien into account with the Panthers big upswing in form where they've won 4 of their last 5 after having won just twice in the first 10 games it means that the Saints probably shouldn't be quite such hot favourites. Carolina's rookie quarterback has records of his own with most passing yards by a rookie & the most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in a single season, he's huge, quick & accurate & looks to have all the makings of a genuine star for the NFL for the next decade, if only his defense weren't giving up 25.6 yards a game they could have competed this year. Cam will want to show what he can do against New Orleans who are ranked 30th against the pass & this could be a shootout, we don't want to back over points as it is sett at a very high 54 but instead are going with a value pick of the Panthers to win at odds of 11/4.

(3rd most receiving yards in the league - the Giants' Victor Cruz)

The biggest game this week is the last one on the card & is between two of the glamour sides with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the New York Giants in a one game decider for the NFC East division & who gets to progress to the playoffs. The sides met just 3 weeks ago with the Giants eventually coming out victorious at Cowboys Stadium in a 37-34 win & the Giants are also coming off a nice win last week against city rivals the New York Jets whilst the Cowboys took a beating from the now eliminated form the playoffs Philadelphia Eagles. So clearly New York have the current momentum but overall even though both sides have 8-7 winning records the Giants have better overall form as the Cowboys have only beaten one side that currently hold a winning record against the 49ers back in week 2. The Giants meanwhile were looking like a very good side as they lost just twice in their first 8 before losing 4 consecutive games against some of the best sides around in the 49ers, Eagles, Saints & Packers, they've rallied again winning 3 of their last 4.

The Cowboys need DeMarcus Ware to have a great game & get to Eli Manning in the backfield if they are going to stop the Giants big passing game but that won't be easy against the Giants good pass protection that have only allowed 26 sacks this year, Dallas managed none last time they played the Giants. Manning should also have his full set of receivers to pass to & they are all very good with Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham both shrugging off minor injuries to back up breakout star Victor Cruz & cause Dallas problems in both the deep & sort threat. Manning has had to throw the ball an awful lot as his rush offense is ranked the league's worst with just 88.1 yards on the ground per game, they could really do with Brandon Jacobs using his size to wear down the Cowboys offensive line. In the backfield on defense the Giants are pretty, pretty, pretty bad & they've given up 58 plays of 20 yards or more which is a worry against the flashy Cowboys offense led by quarterback Tony Romo.

(Laurent Robinson can at least get himself a touchdown even though the Cowboys look likely to exit the playoff picture)

Romo is a good quarterback but is regarded as somewhat of a 'choker' when the pressure's on & Cowboys fans won't have been happy to see the pictures last week where he had to benched after injuring his hand whilst hitting an Eagles player's helmet when passing, that hand is supposed to still be swollen & the Giants will come after it. One of Romo's favourite targets Miles Austin has had a quietish season but Jason Witten & Dez Bryant have continued to be reliable & Laurent Robinson has really stepped up, we rate him the most likely scorer aginst the Giants who let in a lot of passing touchdowns & the 13/8 on offer with Coral for Robinson to score at anytime is like buying money. Overall though we have to side with the home team who have the psychological advantage of beating Dallas in a close overtime game just 3 weeks ago & have a superior passing game, backing the Giants with -3 points on the handicap at 10/11 means if they do win by just a field goal you'll get your stake returned, they can win by more than that to make it a very happy New Year.

Selections:
St. Louis Rams to score less than 13 points at 5/6 (Betfred) v San Francisco 49ers
Total points to be under 35.5 in 49ers v Rams game at 10/11 (general)
Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans Saints at 11/4 (general)
New York Giants to beat Dallas Cowboys with -3 points at 10/11 (general)
Laurent Robinson to score anytime at 13/8 (Coral) in Cowboys v Giants game