NFL Week 15 - Cowboys & Redskins? Welcome to the good old US of American Football!

The NFL keeps on rolling & we're really into the home stretch now with just 3 weeks of regular season games left before the playoffs, we're looking at two games between AFC North & NFC East teams that have big playoff implications with all 4 teams' chances in precarious positions.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys

This game between the two best supported teams in the NFL has plenty of subtext to it & it's no surprise to see it's the televised evening game here in the UK, regardless of all the things surrounding this game we're struggling to see how the Steelers have been made favourites for the clash.

(DeMarcus Ware sacks Ben Roethlisberger - we could see plenty of this on Sunday)

There was tragedy before the Cowboys' game last week as practice squad member Jerry Brown Jr was killed in a car crash with team mate Josh Brent at the wheel, Brent was subsequently charged with manslaughter yet the Cowboys came up with a win over the Bengals with a last minute field goal. Dallas have hit a rich vein of form, winning 4 of their last 5 just when it looked like their season was a lost one with a 3&6 start & although they've not beaten good sides, the Bengals aside, it's been altogether better than Pittsburgh's recent run. The Steelers' recent poor run of one win in 4 has coincided with injury to their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger & even though he returned last week they fell to the San Diego Chargers who have been laughably poor for most of their season. Big Ben is clearly playing whilst still injured (he's wearing a Kevlar body protector) & whilst he is exceptional on the big occasions he may just be pushing it too much this time, it also doesn't help that their rushing attack really isn't good enough (ranks 25th in yards per game).

Pittsburgh's offensive line has been a weak point for several years & that impacts on their running offense & also their pass protection of Roethlisberger & it's no surprise that he has been getting injured, that pass protection will be sorely tested by the Cowboy's star player & sack monster linebacker DeMarcus Ware who will be in the passer's face at every opportunity. Pittsburgh are still a force on defense, ranking 1st in yards given up & they'll be relying on that holding up here against Dallas's potent passing offense - it won't be easy even with the Cowboys' top receiver Dez Bryant having a fractured finger. Bryant's injury should mean that Tony Romo targets his good buddy Jason Witten even more & Miles Austin should see plenty of action too, the short passes to tight end Witten may do just the trick against the aggressive Steeler defense. Dallas are renowned for being chokers when it gets to December & the playoffs loom but it's worth siding with them against the Steelers who have lost to some much poorer sides than the Cowboys, take the 11/10 on offer for a home win.

Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns

In another game between sides from the AFC North & NFC East we see Washington travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, the sides have won 7 in a row between them to improve from poor starts & this could be a good one.

(Redskin rookies Kirk Cousins & Alfred Morris will hope to lead them to victory)

The Redskins have one big injury problem with their impressive rookie passer Robert Griffin III getting a knee injury last week & he is either out or going to play on the injured knee which will severely limit his mobility which is such a key facet of his game. the positive for the Redskins is that their backup quarterback, another rookie, Kirk Cousins did a great job when stepping into the game last week & they have the league's number one ranked rushing attack anyway. That run offense of course is helped by Griffin's ability to take off but their running back (another rookie!) Alfred Morris has been outstanding running for over 100 yards in 6 games this year including in his last 3 games. There should be points available whoever starts for Washington against the Browns' defense that is merely ordinary at best but they do need to improve on defense themselves, it's an area where they don't really have any stars & they are too reliant on 37 year old veteran London Fletcher at times.

This game really is rookie central as the Browns' quarterback Brandon Weeden & starting tailback Trent Richardson are both first year players too, Richardson has undoubtedly been a success with 10 touchdowns although his yrads per carry is only average whilst Weeden has had his troubles at times. Weeden is actually the oldest player ever drafted in the first round of the NFL draft (he was 28 at the time but 29 now) & he previously played pro baseball, he's thrown 15 interceptions to 13 touchdowns but we think he should have done better with a nice set of receivers to aim for. Josh Gordon has been the Cleveland receiver to really step up to the mark in recent weeks & he'll like his chances of more receiving yards against the weak Redskin secondary. The Browns also have one of the league's best cornerbacks in Joe Haden who is basically a shutdown corenerback meaning he can completely nullify an opposing receiver - it may however not be overly useful in this one as we see Washington going very run heavy here.

Even though both sides are on winning runs we can't be too impressed with Cleveland's wins that have come against Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger & then the hapless Raiders & Chiefs, they'll have a good go at it but Washington can pick up the win & keep themselves in playoff contention.

Selections:
Dallas Cowboys to beat Pittsburgh Steelers at 11/10 (General)
Washington Redskins to beat Cleveland Browns at 5/6 (General)

NFL Week 11 - Brutish Bengals won't bow down to Chiefs

There are some big games between bitter rivals this week in the NFL, not least Baltimore at Pittsburgh where the Steelers have to overcome being without quarterback 'Big Ben' Roethelisberger & also an intriguing game between the Colts & Patriots where star rookie Andrew Luck comes up against passing legend Tom Brady. We're concentrating on a couple of games with teams on the verge of a playoff push coming up against some of this season's real stugglers.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City come into this game with just one win from 9 games so far & although they showed improvement to hold out until overtime against the Steelers last week this looks a tough ask against the Bengals who bounced back after 4 successive losses to slam the New York Giants 31-13 last Sunday.

(The Bengals' A.J. Green is fast becoming a superstar wide receiver)

The Bengals possess the NFL's best young wide receiver in A.J.Green & him & quarterback Andy Dalton have a great understanding with them combining for at least one touchdown in their last 8 games including 3 touchdown catches of 50+ yards showing the deep threat the Bengals have. A.J. Green stretches the field which means that Andrew Hawkins & tight end Jermaine Gresham tend to find space in the middle of the field although the Bengals' running game hasn't been up to the same standard as their passing. BenJarvus Green-Ellis joined from the Patriots in thee summer & is a perfectly dependable running back in terms of keeping hold of the ball but he is hardly explosive & is averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season. They've been just average defensively this year ranking 19th on passing yards given up & 20th on rushing  given up too many points, a positive is how aggressive they've been & they've managed to sack opposing quarterbacks 27 times so far ranking joint 4th.

The Chiefs have been having a miserable season & are the perfect example to hold up when highlighting just how crucial the quarterback position is in the NFL with Matt Cassel & backup Brady Quinn combining to throw just 6 touchdowns to 15 interceptions so far as the Chiefs have limped sorrily along. Jamaal Charles has been smashing into opposition defenses after coming back from injury & the Chiefs rank 4th overall in rushing yards. he running game just hasn't been enough though to back up their weak passing & in both areas they struggle to get the ball into the end zone even when they do move it up the field & rank just 30th in points scored. On defense they've fared reasonably against the pass & we think their cornerback Brandon Flowers is a real talent but they've only come up with 15 sacks  rank 23rd against the run. Unlike some teams that can rank statistically poorly but manage to hold teams when they get close to the end zone the Chiefs  allow too many touchdowns & are given up 28.4 points a game which looks like trouble when facing what can be a powerful Cincinnati offense. The Bengals are only giving up 3.5 points on the handicap here & that looks an ace bet, especially when you consider they travelled to the Super Bowl champs last week & beat them by 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

This game is a NFC South divisional rematch from week one where the Buccaneers prevailed in a low scoring encounter, Tampa Bay are making a push for the playoffs with a 5&4 record so far whilst the Panthers are looking to rescue their season with just two wins, both coming against inconsistent opponents.

(Vincent Jackson has already become a firm favourite for Tampa Bay fans & can score in this one)

Carolina's big problem this year has been the eratic performances of their quarterback Cam Newton who picked up the offensive rookie of the year award last season. 'Super' Cam has thrown 10 picks to 8 touchdowns & he's coughed the ball up for 9 fumbles too & at times has looked moody & far from a team player, it's difficult to ascertain whether that's an accurate assessment but it is problematic as quarterbacks are most effective when taking a leadership position. The Panthers are averaging over 7 points less per game this year than last & have faded back more on offense than the slight improvement they've made on the defensive side of the ball. So much of the Panthers' offense rests on Cam's shoulders because he's also their leading rusher with Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams both having ordinary seasons at tailback. Carolina don't look to have any defensive stars but are performing better as a unit & have improved after giving up a league high 8.4 yards per pass in 2011, bringing that down to 7.2 yards in 2012.

Tampa Bay are a strange team in some respects as on defense they rank 1st against the run but that's because teams know they are so easy to pass against with a weak pass rush & they rank stone last giving up 321.3 yards through the air per game. Even though their defense is clearly weak the Bucs have got themselves a winning record because they have a few key players on offense playing exceptionally well with rookie running back Doug Martin stunning defenses with an average of 95.8 yards per game & he's bagged himself 8 touchdowns so far this year. Young passer Josh Freeman has looked a lot more solid this year after a very wobbly 2011 & that seems to be down to him staying in the pocket a bit more & playing more of a classic quarterback role, it's shown in his touchdowns to interceptions (18-5) compared to last year (22-29), he'll feel that he can hit his targets in this one against the average Carolina defense. Vincent Jackson has joined from San Diego & made an instant impact giving Freeman a big physical target to aim for along with the versatile Mike Williams & the highly dependable tight end Dallas Clark who came in from the Colts. They do struggle to put pressure on opposition quarterbacks & have given up too many points even though they'v been scoring well themselves, in the Bucs' last 5 games we've seen points totals of 48, 63, 53, 74 & 58 - it suggests we could be in for a high scoring one here especially if Cam Newton can take advantage with a little less pressure when passing. The total points line has been set at 47.5 by Betfred for this one & we can see it going way over that if both teams' defenses continue to leak yards & points. In terms of touchdown scorers Vincent Jackson has been going nicely with 6 this year & odds of 8/1 for him to grab the first one look value.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3.5 handicap at Evens (Various)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers to total more than 47.5 points at 10/11 (Betfred)
Vincent Jackson to score 1st Touchdown in Tampa Bay v Carolina game at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 5 - Super Cam can Slay Seahawks

They say pride come before a fall & we came back down to earth on Saturday with a bump after 4 wins from 4 picks early in the week, our ambitious pick of QPR failed to come off even after they showed a bit of fight vs West brom & Gillingham failed to find a way through after hitting the post early on against Oxford. You can't win them all though (unless you're the Houston Texans!) & we're back with picks from two of Sunday's NFL games as the Seahawks take on the Panthers & the Eagles face off against the Steelers.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Every Carolina game has a little bit of unpredictability as you can never be sure just how effective their star player, quarterback Cam Newton can be & he's got a tough test this week against Seattle's decent defense. Seattle have a slightly better record than Carolina this year with two wins compared to the Panthers' one but that is highly fortunate as one of those victories was the controversial last second win over the Green Bay Packers.

(We're looking for Cam Newton to star in this one against Seattle)

Both of Seattle's victories have come at home & they tend to fare a lot better on their own field in general with only 8 road wins from the 2008 season onwards. Carolina's loss in week one v Tampa was disappointing but their other two losses were no disgrace, getting rather blown away by Super Bowl champs the New York Giants & then pushing form side Atlanta all the way last week. The Panthers' have a pretty ordinary defense but the Seahawks probably aren't the team to exploit it as they rank just 28th in points scored & yards gained per game & they will surely continue to rely heavily on Marshawn Lynch rather than the passing of their somewhat limited rookie Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks have a mean pass rush but that isn't the best way to stop Cam Newton as he isn't a quarterback who wants to stay in the pocket anyway & he could really hurt Seattle by taking off & breaking off some big runs. Newton really is the key here but if he does perform we can see Carolina winning this by a stretch, he's averaging a league high 9.5 yards per completed pass plus has run for plenty of yards & 3 rushing touchdowns already. With Cam being backed up with the running game of DeAngelo Williams the Panthers can cover the -3 point handicap & consign Seattle to another away loss.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This interstate game only comes around once every four years but means that we have a veritable derby game between the Philadephia Eagles & Pittsburgh Steelers of Pennsylvania at the Steelers' home of Heinz Field.

(Eagles fans will hope to see less of this from Michael Vick)

This is maybe the most fascinating contest of the week as the teams rank 5th (Pittsburgh) & 6th (Philadelphia) on defense but both have some weapons on offense too with the Eagles ranking 5th in offensive yards gained & Pittsburgh having one of the most dangerous passing attacks with Ben Roethlisberger having ace receivers to pass to. The Eagles's offensive yard stat doesn't tell the whole story though as although they rank 5th in yards they rank in 30th place in points scored as they have turned the ball over too many times & struggled to get touchdowns when in the red zone (38.5% of the time). Michael Vick hasn't protected the ball at all well at times & they've had a league high 6 rushing fumbles. Yet for all their troubles the Eagles have somehow managed to get 3 wins from 4 games by a combined total of just 4 points with incredibly narrow victories over the Browns, Ravens & Giants & the saying goes that good teams win even when playing badly.

(Mike Wallace is out to show Antonio Brown & others he's still the star receiver in Pittsburgh)

The Steelers are coming off a bye week & they'll be hoping to improve after a slow start that has seen them only beat the terrible New York Jets. The bye week came at the right time as they were really struggling with injuries to key players but they all look likely to return in this one, Troy Polamalu & James Harrison are two of the NFL's biggest defensive stars & will really bolster them whilst the return of Rashard Mendenhall at running back could add a much needed running game to complement the passing. At receiver the Steelers have an arsenal of talent with the emerging Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown & Mike Wallace, the team had some issues with Wallace pre-season & he missed some training but he has improved markedly in each game as shown by receiving figures of 37, 74 & 123 yards respectively & a touchdown in each game - he's overpriced at 9/1 to score the first touchdown of the game.

This isn't an easy one to call as we've been unimpressed with the Steelers so far & Philadelphia seem to make too many mistakes to be trusted even though they've somehow gained 3 wins from 4 games so instead we'll take the total points line & the game to go over 43. Only one of Philadelphia's games has gone over that mark so far but they have had the chances to score many more points than they've managed whilst we've seen 50 & 65 points in two of Pittsburgh's games suggesting this has the potential to be a high scoring affair.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Seattle Seahawks with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Various)
Over 43 total points in Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers at 10/11 (Various)
Mike Wallace to score first touchdown at 9/1 (Paddy Power)

NFL Wildcard Round - Steelers to dispose of Denver

Houston & New Orleans won their games on Saturday as expected & we're now on to the final two wildcard games with Denver hosting Pittsburgh & Atlanta travelling to New York to face the Giants, we think one of the underdogs can win but it shouldn't be Denver unless Tim Tebow really can get some divine intervention going!

(The scene that Steelers fans don't want to see - Roethlisberger on the ground)

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Denver as 5th seeds to face the Broncos as 4th seeds in the AFC, that seeding doesn't really indicate the strength of these sides as Denver only had an 8 & 8 season in the mediocre AFC West whilst the Steelers had a great 12 & 4 season in the AFC's best division the AFC North, the Broncos automatically got seeded higher as tehy won their division. It should be noted that the Broncos have overachieved just by getting to the playoffs, after winning just 1 of their first 5 they turned to unorthodox quarterback Tim Tebow & won 7 of their next 8, often from unlikely positions after trailing with just moments left. Tebow has clearly helped them in clutch situations but it's rarely been through the use of his arm as the team trailed in 31st place in terms of passing yards but led the league in rushing yards, thanks to the quarterback option offense  the excellent back Willis McGahee who was just one yard shy of hitting 1200 on the ground. The Broncos only scored over 20 points in 3 of the 11 games since their bye week & that looks highly unlikely to be increased against the league's best defense, the Steelers are giving up just 14.2 points a game & less than 280 yards of total offense.

(Wide receiver Mike Wallace can continue to star for Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh have stars on both sides of the ball with Troy Polamalu, James Harrison & Brett Keisel standing out on defense & quarterback Ben Roethlisberger teaming up with his talented wide receiver corps on offense including Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders & the evergreen Hines Ward. The Steelers do have problems on offense though as Big Ben is suffering from a sprained ankle & first choice running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the playoffs with a torn ACL. They should be able to cope withour Mendenhall as they have a good backup in the powerful Isaac Redman but they need to keeep Roethlisberger as protected as possible against the Broncos very good pass rush. The real heroes in the Broncos push to the playoffs has been their defense with outstanding rookie linebacker Von Miller & defensive end Elvis Dumervil combining for 20 quaarterback sacks this year. The Steelers really will want to keep Ben as healthy as possible & hope his ankle recuperates as they go through the playoffs, we wouldn't be surprised to see them very aggresive early on in order to establish a commanding lead so they can remove him from the game. Antonio Brown has really started to establish himself in the Steelers' passing game & it wouldn't surprise us to see him get a touchdown but Mike Wallace is their number one at the moment  the 7/1 on him to score the first touchdown looks a nice bet. Denver scored just 3 points against the Chiefs in theirr final regular season game & it was one they were aiming to win, it looks like being an uphill struggle all day & Pittsburgh should be able to comfortably cover the -7.5 point spread on offer at 20/21 with Ladbrokes.

(Atlanta Falcons fans won't be complaining if they see catches like this from Julio Jones)

In the earlier game the Atlanta Falcons take their talented offense to face off against the 2008 Super Bowl winners the New York Giants. The historically strong Giants defense has not done too well this year, ranking only 27th overall & just 29th against the pass & that can largely be put down to some atrocious play against the deep pass, we think that spells trouble against the Falcons who ranked 8th in passing in the regular season & have potent threats in Roddy White & especially Julio Jones when they go down the field. With tight end Tony Gonzalez still hoovering up any short passes & Michael Turner doing it in the running game as well as when he comes out of the backfield the Falcons can move the ball anyway they want. The Falcons  do tend to be much better at home & the Giants are comingoff of two nice wins but it was only 3 weeks ago that they lost to the mediocre at best Washington Redskins & the Cowboys did somewhat implode (as usual) at the end of the season. Passer Eli Manning has carried their offensive game as they rank last in the rush & that isn't good news in the playoffs, having a one note game makes it easy to defend a team & we can't be having the Giants as favourites here. If the Falcons were at home we think they'd be strong favourites with the bookmakers, their away form is a little worrisome but they did win at Detroit earlier in the year which isn't easy & we want to be with the Falcons to beat the Giants at 6/4, in terms of touchdown scorers we think siding with Julio Jones at 9/1 to score the first touchdown is the way to go.

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 20/21 (Ladbrokes)
Mike Wallace to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Steelers v Broncos game
Atlanta Falcons to beat New York Giants at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Julio Jones to score 1st Touchdown at 9/1 (various) in Falcons v Giants game

Double up those touchdown scorers to get massive odds of 79/1

Drew Brees can march Saints past Detroit & on to Super Bowl

So the 17 weeks of the regular season have passed us by & there's been the usual great plays, not-so-great plays, unexpected successes & disappointing losses & we're down to the 12 teams that are still in with a chance of Super Bowl glory. Defending champs Green Bay as well as San Francisco, New England & Baltimore get to sit this round out as they finished the year with the best records in their conferences but we've got 4 great wildcard round matches to determine who gets to visit those teams next weekend  for a place in the Conference Championship games. We're taking a look at all of the games during the playoffs but are starting out with Saturday's 2 games to find the best bets available & we'll also be picking our outright bets for the Conference Championships & the Super Bowl here.

(Arian Foster with 12 TDs already this year - you've guessed it, he's getting another here)

First up are our pre-season tip the Houston Texans against the tough AFC North's third placed team the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of rookie quarterbacks with the Texans' 3rd string passer T.J. Yates & the  Bengals' impressive 2nd round draft pick Andy Dalton. This is the Texans first ever trip to the playoffs in their 10 year history & with a bit more luck on the injury front they would have been strong contenders for the outright win, they lost quarterback Matt Schaub in week 10, then his backup Matt Leinart in their next game, star defender Mario Williams has been out since week 5 & arguably the best wide receiver in the league Andre Johnson's played in just 7 games. Johnson is in for this one which is a boost & clearly the Texans are a solid all round team as they ranked 2nd overall on defensive yards given up behind only the legendary Steelers D, they beat the Bengals on the road in week 14 to seal their playoff place & although they lost theirr last 3 games they didn't look to be playing so hard once they got that playoff spot. The Texans don't give up many big passing plays which will help blunt some of A.J. Green's threat & are excellent against the run so won't be worried by Cedric Benson who's had a solid but unspectacular season. For a team with a very inexperienced quarterback Houston still have a chance of navigating the playoffs thanks to their excellent running game (ranked 2nd) led by star Arian Foster & ably backed up by the ever-improving Ben Tate, Foster will almost certainly score at some point  the short odds of 2/5 should be taken & the juicy 5/1 for him to score first. The Texans should win thanks to their solid defense but we can't take odds of 1/2 so we'll stick to Foster scoring & stay happy that our bet at the start of the season for the Super Bowl at 28/1 is still in with a chance.

(Jimmy Graham can get at least one touchdown in a Saints victory)

In the late Saturday game the Detroit Lions face a monstrous task in taking on 2009 Super Bowl winners the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. They've already faced off here once, in week 13 & the Saints were just too good for the Lions who've had a decent but far from outstanding season with most of their wins coming against lower class opposition & tending to struggle against the better teams. Detroit have a very good young passer in Matt Stafford & this year's outstanding wide receiver Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson, he's their standout star but that does allow teams to come up with a game plan against them. With New Orleans it's tough to pick out a receiving 'star' as Brees tends to spread his passes out with 7 players having 30+ receptions, tight end Jimmy Graham's as close as it gets to number one with 99 grabs & 11 touchdowns, at 4/7 he's a reasonable price to score at anytime. Drew Brees has just been incredible this year & is now the holder of the all-time single season passing yards record finally surpassing Dan Marino's 1984 record, the offensive line keep him safe & with enough time to pick his passes, he should have another good game here. As great as the Saints passing game is they also have a pretty potent ground game with their triple threat backs Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles & Pierre Thomas, that excellent offense makes up for a defense that's only average but probably looks worse statistically due to teams having to chase the Saints when trailing late on. In 12 of New Orleans' 13 wins they were winning at half time so the best bet looks to be backing the Saints to be winning at half time & full time at 2/5, it's certainly more backable than getting on them at 2/11.

Like we said we already got on the Texans in pre-season but they look to have been too hard hit by injuries to go all the way now but our pick in the 2nd game the New Orleans Saints look to be the team to take on the Packers in the NFC & at odds of 16/5 to win the conference look a great value bet. They won't have to face Green Bay until the Championship game if the Packers themselves progress that far, we don't think it'll be a problem for the Saints as they'll beat Detroit here & can take the 49ers apart next week, if the Packers matchup happens it'll be a shootout & we don't mind having Drew Brees on our side!

(Isaac Redman (with the ball!) can step up & help the Steelers tough it out through the playoffs)

In the AFC we're starting to like the look of the Pittsburgh Steelers as outright favourites the New England Patriots look to be a hugely vulnerable side after coming back from big deficits to weak teams in the past 3 weeks. Pittsburgh already beat them this year & should prevail with ease against Tebow & the Broncos on Sunday, if Houston win the Steelers will go straight to Foxborough otherwise they'll be up against deadly rivals the Ravens. Baltimore did the double over them in the regular season but the Steelers are supremely confident they can turn that around in a one-off game & there's no way we want to be with the Ravens for winning big games whilst they have the mediocre Joe Flacco under centre. If the Steelers face New England they can shut down their explosive offense whilst still putting up points themselves & they can come out on top of any tough battles against the Ravens, at 5/1 for the AFC Pittsburgh must be backed. The Steelers biggest problem is running back Rashard Mendenhall picking up a season ending injury in their last game but we've never felt he's a franchise running back, Isaac Redman can step up & they're basically a passing team now anyway.

(Drew Brees is looking awesome & he can grab the Lombardi trophy just like 2 years ago)

So, we're going for a Steelers/Saints final with the double paying out just over 24/1 with Victor Chandler, Black & Gold supporters would be happy with that game & it would be hugely exciting to see the best offense match up against the best defense & see which comes out on top. They say defenses win championships but we're starting to think the Saints can follow up their success two years ago & they're our outright pick at 5/1, if they do win it's almost inevitable that Drew Brees will get the MVP award & backing him at a nice price of 7/1 in Ladbrokes Super Bowl MVP market is a good a bet as any.

Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat Detroit lions at half time & full time at 2/5 (William Hill)
Jimmy Graham to score at anytime at 4/7 (Skybet) Lions v Saints game
Arian Foster to score 1st touchdown at 5/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 2/5 (Coral) Bengals v Texans game

Playoff outright bets:
New Orleans Saints to win the NFC at 16/5 (Victor Chandler) & Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC at 5/1 (Victor Chandler) with a double paying out odds of just over 24/1
New Orleans Saints to win Super Bowl at 5/1 (various)
Drew Brees to be the Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 16 - Christmas can come early for strong home teams

It's the 2nd last round of games in the NFL regular season & we've got our preview & best bets for this group of games as usual, we were let down by the Titans last Sunday but the New England Patriots did us proud by taking apart the Broncos & Tim Tebow, that's where we're starting this week with the Christmas Eve games.

 (Big man Vince Wilfork will be coming after the Dolphins on nearly every play)

The Miami Dolphins are hugely improved after losing their first 7 games & in general looking useless at the same time, they've won 5 out of 7 since then but those wins have come agaainst some pretty ordinary outfits including the sliding Buffalo Bills twice, they'll find things a whole lot tougher against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have lost just 3 times this year & have won their last 6 putting up large point totals, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league with an atrocious secondary that they will want to upgrade in the off-season but the offense is doing more than enough to get the job done. 'Mr Perfect' Tom Brady is just about on course to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record & will be looking to put up big numbers against the Dolphins' 25th ranked pass defense, as usual he'll target his tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez as well as top receiver Wes Welker, we'd have thought they'll be putting up over 30 points in this one. The Dolphins have done extremely well in terms of points conceded but did let the Bills score 23 last week & the Eagles 26 the week before, their schedule has been fairly easy all year & although they've improved we've still been unimpressed especially on the offense other than the rejuvenated Reggie Bush at running back. Matt Moore never managed to establish himself at Carolina & they're now showing what they can do on offense with outstanding rookie Cam Newton as passer, he'll struggle to exploit the Patriots poor pass defense, he has an outstanding receiver in Brandon Marshall but very little else of note in the receiving corps. The Dolphins have only scored more than 30 points 3 times this year & for that reason we're happy to take the Patriots with a -9.5 point handicap, that's just a touchdown & a field goal the Patriots need to win by & they're pretty formidable here in Foxborough.

(The No.1 ranked Steelers defense can ensure this is a low scoring encounter)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens over who will be top dog in the AFC North & they'll be pleased to be up against just about the league's worst team in the St. Louis Rams this week as they aim to win out. The key to this game is that Pittsburgh are likely to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger now until the playoffs as he's played large parts of the season with various injuries & the won't want to aggravate his current high ankle sprain any more, that means the Steelers wil likely run the ball much more often than usual & the clock will continue to run meaning less scoring opportunities. 3 of the Steelers last 4 games have had 23 or less points in them, the Rams have had only 2 of their last 7 games go over 40 points as they tend to struggle to put up any points at all & it won't be any easier against the league's best defense. Basically this game looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring of the year & the points line being set at 37.5 is too high & under should be backed.

 (Cedric Benson can gain some yards on the ground for the Bengals)

Finally the Arizona Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bengals & their dream rookie receiver/quarterback partnership of A.J. Green & Andy Dalton but even though the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 they won't have it their own way here in Ohio. 4 of those wins for the Cardinals were at home & one was against the dreadful Rams & the other came against the underperforming Eagles, they are pretty solid defensively but haven't scored more than 28 points all season & that was in the 1st game. The Bengals aren't particularly high scorers either but have done the business in every game they'd have been expected to leading to them holding an 8 & 6 record even though they are in a division with the Steelers & Ravens. The Bengals are also good at defending the run & that's where the Cardinals' offensive strength lies with Beanie Wells tending to rush hard & often, if the Bengals can take that away then there's little to worry about with their QB Skelton even though he has Larry 'Inspector Gadget Arms' Fitzgerald to pass to. At home the advantage definitely lies with the Bengals & they can win this at reasonable odds of 1/2 with Skybet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -9.5 points at 10/11 (general)
St.Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers to be under 37.5 Total Points at 10/11 (general)
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Arizona Cardinals at 1/2 (Skybet)

NFL Thursday Night - Steelers can flatten Browns

Week 14 in the NFL begins with an AFC North divisional game with the Cleveland Browns travelling to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, it looks like a tough matchup for the Browns who've lost 5 of their last 6 & have injuries to key players. The Steelers meanwhile are starting to really roll having won 7 of their last 8 & won impressively against Cincinnati last week, we've our usual best bets below.

(The Steelers are making a championship push & running back Isaac Redman can play a part)

The Browns rank 30th in offensive yards, the Steelers have given up the least yards in offense. The Browns rank 31st defending the run, the Steelers have stepped up their running game in recent weeks averaging 116.3 yards in the last 3 games. The Browns have quarterback Colt McCoy playing with an injured knee this week & star player, back Peyton Hillis likely to be out, all of Pittsburgh's main weapons look fit, fresh & in form. Basically this looks bad for the Browns & great for the Steelers who know they have to keep up the pressure on Baltimore as they're currently tied atop the Division but the Ravens holding a tiebreaker by beating them twice already.

The Browns do have a good pass defense but it's made to look artificially better statistically due to their dreadful run defense as teams just keep running the ball straight through them & Pittsburgh will have joy in both disciplines. On the ground Rashard Mendenhall has been looking good with 8 touchdowns this year including a couple last week, he's backed up by the hard running Isaac Redman & between them they should get some nice yardage here. Ben Roethlisberger has a great set of receivers to throw to & has been particularly successful when going to Antonio Brown recently, we're expecting him to use his full set of catchers who are all fit & healthy minus Emmanuel Sanders. The Steelers have a great defense whose only weakness this year has been in not creating enough turnovers, that hasn't been too much of a problem when they keep making the opposition punt the ball & get the ball back that way, they really shouldn't be posed too many problems by Cleveland & this could be a touchdown shutout for the Browns offense. Even with the Browns decent defense we think that this could be a big win for Pittsburgh & they can cover the -14 point spread on their way to yet another win, we expect to see a nicely balanced offense & the usual great defense frustrate the Browns in every aspect of the game. For a nice value bet Isaac Redman is 25/1 to score the 1st touchdown & 9/2 with Ladbrokes to score at anytime, he's only one touchdown so far but has been handed the ball a few times in the redzone recently & looks a genuine contender especially at those prices!

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cleveland Browns with -14 points at 10/11 (general)
Isaac Redman to score 1st touchdown at 25/1 (various) & to score touchdown at anytime at 9/2 (Ladbrokes)