NFL Antepost Preview 2013 - Falcons can soar to the Super Bowl

The 2013 NFL season is right upon us now & it looks like it could be one to savour with several teams making moves to challenge for the Super Bowl right now & the usual powerhouses still fielding strong sides. We're taking a look here at some of the best antepost bets for the season that will culminate in the Super Bowl on the first weekend in February 2014. Last year we gave the San Francisco 49ers to be the NFC champions at 7/1 & they duly obliged so hopefully we can pick out some more value here.

AFC

Denver Broncos

This year everybody has been talking about the Denver Broncos who start with legendary passer Peyton Manning for the 2nd year after his move across from Indianapolis after a serious injury & it's easy to see why the Broncos have been the talk of the league with several big moves. The addition of the prolific Wes Welker at receiver was probably the most eye-catching move; he's had over 1,000 receiving yards in 5 seasons & Manning will relish having him to pass to. Welker is 32 though & that's probably why the Patriots let him go, the Broncos are going all out for this season & that could put the pressure on from a very early stage. They've also added to their defense at the deep positions with the signings of the veteran safety Quentin Jammer & the excellent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback. We really like Rodgers-Cromartie who probably wasn't used to best effect at all times in his two years in Philadelphia but he was great at Arizona previously & could be a key player here.

(Von Miller is suspended for 6 games & that could cost Denver dearly)

It isn't all good for Denver though with their running game looking light now Willis McGahee has departed, it is a passing league now though so maybe they'll get away with it & just because teams know they'll pass a lot doesn't mean they'll be able to stop Peyton anyway! A bigger loss to the Broncos was that of their ace defensive end Elvis Dumervil who ended up going to Baltimore in part due to a late submission of paperwork by his agent. The worst news though was the suspension for 6 games (of their 16 game season) of their star defensive player, outside linebacker Von Miller for a substance violation. Miller is one of the league's very best players & with him missing it could mean the Bronco's don't end up winning quite enough games to be a top seed in the playoffs. The AFC West should still be a formality for them but without home advantage through the post-season their odds look short enough for the AFC & the Super Bowl so are reluctantly passed over.

Houston Texans

We were keen on outright glory for the Houston Texans last year & not too much has changed to think they shouldn't be right there again this year. They amassed an impressive 11 wins from their first 12 games last season before slumping at the end to 3 losses in 4 & missing the AFC's top seed that would have kept them at home throughout the playoffs which is key as they're a dome side meaning inclement winter weather can really harm their chances. Some labelled the Texans as 'soft' but we're not sure it was a choke & it's no coincidence the slide came when their dominant inside linebacker Brian Cushing was injured, we're certain if he'd stayed fit the story would have had a different outcome.

(The return of Brian Cushing from injury is great news for the Texans)

The Texans have some of the best players in key positions in the league with Arian Foster an elite running back, Andre Johnson an ace wide receiver, Brian Cushing as already mentioned & the 2012 defensive player fo the year J.J. Watts at defensive end. Add to that a very good offensive line, including maybe the game's best left tackle Duane Brown, & it's difficult to see how they won't end up close to 13 wins this year but many doubt the capabilities of the quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub doesn't have a reputation for being a 'clutch' player, meaning he doesn't come up with the plays in key situations often enough, but he's definitely highly talented as evidenced by him leading the league in key passer stats in 2009 (passing yards, completions, yards per game & attempts). If defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips can keep his young & hugely talented defense firing Schaub may not have to improve much anyway as they should always be in with a chance whilst keeping their opposition's scoring opportunities low.

At 7/1 to win the AFC Houston seem to be the value picks as we think the New England Patriots may eventually start to slow this year after being exceptional for so long & the Broncos are just to short in price. Of the other AFC contenders according to the bookmakers we don't think the Ravens will even win their division (we like the Bengals in the AFC North so that also rules out Pittsburgh who could end up with a losing season) & 2013 is too early for the improving Colts, Dolphins & Chiefs.

NFC

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC looks stronger than the AFC this year with powerhouses like the San Francisco 49ers & Green Bay plus the impressive & improving Seattle Seahawks & always dangerous New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears but the only team we want to side with is the Atlanta Falcons.

(Steven Jackson - last piece in the Atlanta Falcons' jigsaw?)

The Falcons are just scary in the passing game with a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan helped out by an amazing receiver corps of the ever youthful Tony Gonzalez at tight end & Julio Jones & Roddy White at wide receiver. The latter two thrive in the NFL with the rules helping their style of play by very much favouring them against the cornerbacks who will be trying to stop them - it's possible we could see Matt Ryan throw for career high numbers this year with them to aim at. The big improvement on offense has been the capture of Steven Jackson from the Rams at running back & he should mean that they can run the ball & use up the clock once they establish their now customary leads in games. Getting pegged back late on due to their inability to pound the ball up the middle really hurt Atlanta last year & it could be key to them getting their number one seed this year & staying at the Georgia Dome where they are so dominant.

Atlanta have also tried to improve their defense this year & taken a gamble on the now veteran defensive end Osi Umenyiora from the Giants but if he stays fit he'll add another dimension to their play bringing real aggression & pressure on opposition QB's - along with Justin Babineaux at defensive tackle they could have a lot of sacks this year. They've also looked to upgrade at cornerback with their first two draft selections & Desmond Trufant looks like he could thrive in the professional game, with their safety positions already solid look out for a much improved defensive showing this year.

Again like the Texans in the AFC Atlanta just look the value here with Seattle & San Francisco too short as joint favourites considering they'll have to play each other twice in the regular season meaning dropped games & Green Bay need to improve a little defensively even though their offense remains incredible. Take big odds of 9/1 for Atlanta to win the NFC & even bigger odds of 18/1 for them to collect their Super Bowl rings in early 2014.

Selections:
Houston Texans to win AFC at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC at 9/1 (General) & to win Super Bowl at 18/1 (Paddy Power)

NFL Divisional Round - Broncos to serve Ravens up a dish of Deja Vu

We're onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs & the two Saturday games are previewed here as Denver & San Francisco look to home field advantage & a rested squad whilst Baltimore & Green Bay look to carry the momentum of their wins last week. In last week's matches we were just middling, getting the Bengals @ Texans unders & Baltimore to win HT/FT fairly easily but having quarterback injury let us down in the other games (Christian Ponder & RGIII), hopefully injuries won't be as key in this week's games.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

These two sides meet again after facing off in week 15, in that game Denver basically humiliated Baltimore in their own stadium going up 34-3 in the 4th quarter before the Ravens responded with 10 consolation points late on - this will be even tougher as the Ravens try to overcome the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

(Broncos heart throb Eric Decker looks overpriced to haul in the first touchdown)

The Broncos now have outright favouritism for the Super Bowl with most firms & it's easy to see why as they've had a tremendous run winning their final 11 games, often impressively, after losing 3 of their first 5, admittedly to some very smart opponents. Peyton Manning has conclusively proved any doubters wrong, showing that he is fully recovered from the major surgery undertaken last year, now including the arm strength that understandably took a couple of games to get back. This is a side that got to the playoffs in 2011 (& won a game!) with Tim Tebow under centre - to have one of the very best quarterbacks of all time instead it now seems blindingly obvious that we should all have been backing Denver at the start of the season! The Broncos match up their outstanding quarterback play with some explosive defense that ranks 2nd overall in yards conceded per game & is outstanding against both the run & pass (ranking 3rd against each). They have great players through the defense with Champ Bailey one of the all time great cornerbacks, Von Miller is arguably the best defender in the league & Elvis Dumervil is a great defensive end, they look sure to be able to deal with anything the Ravens throw at them.

We were keen on the Ravens to beat Indianapolis last week but that was because the Colts were some way short of being as good as their win record suggested, this is a different proposition & it seems difficult to see how they'll keep pace with a team they were so outplayed by just a month ago. It looks like they will be prepared to throw some bombs downfield though if last week's game is anything to go by where Anquan Boldin gained 145 receiving yards, all coming in the 2nd half of the game, those deep passes are what Joe Flacco does best as he undeniably has a strong arm although he could look instead to the younger Torrey Smith this time. The Ravens' vaunted defense hasn't been as strong this year, with injuries & the ravages of age taking their toll, this looks likely to be legendary linebacker Ray Lewis's final game, he did well on comeback last week but may feel the effects of being out from week 6 onwards in this game. Ray Rice & young backup running back Bernard Pierce may be in the game plan to begin with but if the Ravens fall behind they'll be forced to pass & we can see Flacco getting sacked & throwing multiple interceptions as the Broncos force home a crushing win. Take Denver with -9 points to win this game, they beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore & can at least match that here. Looking at the touchdown scorers it looks like Broncos receiver Eric Decker is overpriced at 8/1 to get the first TD, he's their leading touchdown scorer with 13 & bagged himself 5 in the last 3 games so is red hot at the moment.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

This game is a rematch of these two teams first game of the season but takes place at the 49ers' Candlestick Park rather than Green Bay's famous Lambeau Field, these are arguably the NFC's top two teams so promises to be a great contest.

(Colin Kaepernick could be on the run for the 49ers)

The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game last time round only to end up just pipped to getting to the Super Bowl by the New York Giants, they'll be hoping for better this time around & need to start off by beating the Packers but they have somewhat controversially ditched quarterback Alex Smith for the still relatively untested Colin Kaepernick who now faces his biggest challenge by some margin. Kaepernick came into the side in week 10 after Smith was concussed & that means he's played just 7 full games yet faces off today against the Packers' turnover creating defense & has to keep pace with one of the league's best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. In the medium to long term we think bringing Kaepernick in is a good decision for the 49ers as he definitely has more scope than Alex Smith & has an added dimension of being a great athlete able to take off at any time with the ball, however in the short term it could prove costly here as this is a team that were championship contenders with Smith & his experience & decision making could have been crucial especially as they remain foremost a hard running, hard defense team.

Frank Gore is the 49ers star attacker & he put up his 6th 1,000+ rushing yards season this time around, the fact that 4 of his 5 lowest rushing games of the season coincided with the 4 losses San Francisco sustained shows just how important he is to the team. The Packers are only average at stopping the run & it's surely the 49ers best chance of success as even if Kaepernick is on his game he doesn't really have a lot of targets to pass to & seems to have somewhat zoned in exclusively on Michael Crabtree in recent weeks, top tight end Vernon Davis has gained just 6 receptions in their last 6 games. Of course the 49ers' greatest strength is on defense where they are a tour de force against the pass & run, ranking 2nd in points conceded per game (just 17.1), the leader is 2nd season linebacker Aldon Smith who came up with 19.5 sacks but the whole front 7 are outstanding & almost certainly the best in football at the moment.

The Packers' offensive line has been a weakness for some time & that 49er pressure is going to mean Rodgers will get repeatedly hit in the game, yet he's been used to that all season & yet still manages to post outstanding numbers, rarely panicking & throwing poor passes whilst under intense pressure by defenders. Rodgers seems to know when to take a sack too which remains a skill many quarterbacks still haven't acquired (Tony cough Romo cough!), he's got a great set of receivers to pass to & if he can escape the pressure he'll make some big plays in this one with so many 49ers on pass rush. Randall Cobb has really established himself in his 2nd season & got 80 receptions on the year, staying as Rodgers' most dependable receiver all season, Jordy Nelson is back & fit after missing a couple of games & James Jones will be looking to add to his huge haul of 14 TD receptions - they can definitely hurt San Fran.

(Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson can swing this in Green Bay's favour)

The Packers' key players in this one may however be on defense where they need to force Colin Kaepernick into making the mistakes that will finish the 49ers. A.J. Hawk & Clay Matthews will put him under pressure & they now have their outstanding veteran cornerback Charles Woodson back to make the plays in the backfield, he made a real difference against the Vikings last week & may prove crucial here. The 49ers were our pre-season pick to make the Super Bowl for the NFC but we're abandoning them here as we see Rodgers v Kaepernick as pivotal & we have to side with the proven quantity, take Green Bay to win as 13/10 outsiders.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat Baltimore Ravens with -9 points handicap at 10/11 (Coral, William Hill & SkyBet)
Eric Decker to score first touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
Green Bay Packers to beat San Francisco 49ers at 13/10 (Boylesports, William Hill & Pinnacle)

NFL Week 3 - Top Notch Texans can reach Mile High Pinnacle

We've been waiting to see our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans as a main game on TV & we get it this Sunday when they take on Denver, we've got that game covered plus an under points bet from another as we look to ramp it up in the 3rd week of NFL action. It was disappointing to see the Carolina Panthers so readily outpointed on Thursday night after we tipped them up before a major plunge on them throughout the day as the news of the Giants' injury problems filtered through, the Panthers rather froze under the big lights of national TV & look like to be a highly inconsistent lot.

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

We're big fans of the Texans here at Like Buying Money & were keen on their chances last year when they started the season at 25/1 for the Super Bowl, this year they were 12/1 & shorter but they've already contracted to odds of just 7/1 & are vying for favouritism with the San Francisco 49ers. They take on Peyton Manning & the Denver Broncos at altitude this Sunday & it's certainly a tougher challenge than their first two games but there's good reason to think they'll prevail up at the Mile High Stadium.

(Brian Cushing (56) & J.J. Watt (99) are two of the NFL's best young defenders)

It's easy to see why the rest of the world are becoming so sweet on the Texans as they are maybe the best balanced team in the league with a vastly improved defense, partly thanks to the great work of co-ordinator Wade Phillips & also some great young talent. On the offensive side of the ball Houston have arguably the best running back & wide receiver in the NFL in the form of Arian Foster & Andre Johnson respectively plus a solid offensive line that protect dependable passer Matt Schaub very nicely indeed. This season the Texans have allowed the fewest passing yards & points in the league (just 17) & taken 3 interceptions, forced 2 fumbles & sacked the opposition quarterback 6 times. Defensive end J.J. Watt has been exceptional so far with 3 sacks already & some reckon he's playing as well as any football player on either side of the ball right now. Peyton Manning had one of his wobbliest ever performances last week when throwing 4 picks against the Falcons last week & this is a much tougher defensive unit, he's proven to be strong mentally but he still has to prove he's back to full physical strength after a year out.

The Broncos are a talented team themselves especially defensively & we especially like Von Miller & Elvis Dumervil whom have laser tracking on opposition quarterbacks as they look to get sacks & put pressure on at all times. On the offensive side of the ball they have some decent receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker & tight end Jacob Tamme but no real star & we're still not wholly convinced veteran running back Willis McGahee can be depended on week in week out. Manning could struggle to pass the ball again this week against Houston's talented defense & an awful lot will fall on McGahee's shoulders, unfortunately their running game just can't match up to the awesome dual threat of the Texans' Foster & Tate combo. The Texans can move the ball on the ground & in the air & that makes them difficult to stop, they have little problem pounding it in down near the goal line & that means they'll get touchdowns where other teams may have to settle for field goals. With the Broncos having played on Monday night & having had a little less rest the Texans are an outstanding price to win at odds of 5/6 with William Hill even though they are on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

There is a really interesting matchup out in the desert as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to face the Arizona Cardinals who shocked the Patriots in Foxborough last week, adding spice to the game is the fact that ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb will be starting at quarterback for the Cards.

(Defensive back & kick return specialist Patrick Peterson is the Cardinal's young star)

The Cardinals have been seen as one of the weaker teams around even though they reached the 2008 Super Bowl but they put in a really nice run in the latter part of last season winning 7 of their last 9 & they've narrowly won both of their games this season thanks in large part to a defense that doesn't give up too many points, tending to restrict opponents to field goals - they've restricted their opponents to two touchdowns or less in their last 11 games. We can't say we're too keen on Arizona's offense which ranks 28th & 30th in rushing & passing respectively & their running has been awful in yards per carry with Beanie Wells gaining 2.8 yards per attempt & Ryan Williams just 1.2, that should just mean they stay even more determined to keep this tight & low scoring. The Eagles are pretty good defensively too & can slow teams down & generate turnovers, their road games also tend to be pretty low scoring with only one of their last 6 away games going over today's betting points total. Totesport are going 43.5 for the total points & that looks big as other firms are going 42, this could be a really tense affair & with Michael Vick still not firing at QB for the Eagles this may be the lowest points total this week.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Denver Broncos at 5/6 (William Hill)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals to go under 43.5 total points at 10/11 (Totesport)

Monday Night Football - Everton & Falcons can pick apart weary travellers

More Monday Night football action as we see a game between two of the Premier League's teams just off the top set when Everton host Newcastle United & an interesting game in the NFL as the defensively strong Denver Broncos try to slow down the passing hotshot that is Matt Ryan for the Atlanta Falcons. Both games are important even this early in the season as all four teams are looking to lay down a marker as they either push for Europe or a playoff place. We've previewed both games & come up with a pair of bets in each as we look to turn a tidy profit at the start of the week.

Everton vs Newcastle United

Everton started their season off at breakneck pace with wins against Manchester United & away to Aston Villa with Marouane Fellaini excelling in particular, they got brought down to earth with a bump when losing to West Brom though & face a tough game against Newcastle United as they look to bounce back. Newcastle will also be looking to improve after they rather huffed & puffed in a 1-1 draw with Villa at home & they have to make do without their good young keeper Tim Krul who picked up an injury on international duty & that is a setback as they haven't kept a clean sheet in the league yet.

(Technical supremo Steven Pienaar could be the key for Everton)

This could be a game where we see classic home & away roles with Newcastle coming with the intention of firstly stopping Everton, being reactive & forcing the Toffees to come forward with the ball, Newcastle know that they hold a threat whenever they come forwards thanks to their Senegalese strikeforce of Ba & Cisse. Everton tend to look a bit better when teams come at them as they have such a solid defence that they feel comfortable when attacked but in Steven Pienaar they have a player who can unlock the toughest defences when on form. With the signings of Kevin Mirallas & Steven Naismith they've added some additional quality & much needed extra options in attack & with the set piece danger from corners & Leighton Baines' free kicks they should be able to knock one past Steve Harper.

Newcastle will again be without their key midfield enforcer in Cheick Tiote & he's a big miss in games like this, if Pienaar gets time on the ball he should be able to create enough chances, even if Newcastle do defend deep, & Everton now have players who can put those chances away. Newcastle have already played 5 times thanks to their European commitments & they've got a Europa League game against Maritimo on Thursday night, although this game will take priority Everton have the advantage & we like the 5/6 available for the home win. We do think Newcastle will make this tough though & a small wager on a correct score bet of 1-0 to Everton could be worth chancing at 13/2.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

(Julio Jones is starting to emerge as a truly elite receiver for the Falcons)

The Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos go on the road to the Atlanta Falcons after a nice start when beating Pittsburgh at home in week one, this is a much different test though as the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league when in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have lost at home in the regular season just 6 times in the last 4 years (32 games) & quarterback Matt Ryan looks altogether more comfortable when playing inside - of course playing inside won't be a problem for Manning either having spent his career at Indianapolis.

Both teams looked good last week with Atlanta travelling to take on the Kansas City Chiefs & putting 40 points on the board with Ryan looking hugely efficient completing 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards & 3 touchdowns. Julio Jones was Ryan's main target & he looks like he could be about to move to another level of play at receiver & could be having a monstrous season in terms of receiving yards & touchdowns. The Broncos did well against the Steelers but did have the benefit of going up against their poor O-line & the Falcons are much better at protecting the passer, Pittsburgh also looked to struggle without Rashard Mendenhall at running back & the Fakcons have a dependable sort in Michael Turner. The big positive for Denver was clearly how well Manning has settle into the side & he already looks to have established a good understanding with his receivers with Demaryius homas, Eric Decker & Jacon Tamme all getting 5 receptions each - the Falcons' are a little weak in their secondary & this could be a shootout so we expect Peyton to put up yards through the air again.

(Peyton Manning links back up with tight end Jacob Tamme (no.84))

Although we do think this will be high scoring the total points line is high enough at 52 & instead the value looks to be had by siding with the Falcons as they only have to give up 3 points on the handicap - they are a tough proposition at home & can score touchdowns at will once they get into a rhythm. There is value to be had with a Denver touchdown scorer though as tight end Jacob Tamme is available at 6/4 to score a TD at anytime, he got one last week & Peyton Manning loves to aim for tight ends when in & around the red zone & links up with Tamme after previously being together at the Colts, even though we think Atlanta will win they are likely to concede a few points on the way.

Selections:
Everton to beat Newcastle United at 5/6 (Various)
Everton to beat Newcastle United 1-0 at 13/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Atlanta Falcons to beat Denver Broncos with -3.5 point handicap at 20/21 (William Hill)
Jacob Tamme to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/4 (Various)

Super Saints can crush 49ers Super Bowl dream

Last Sunday was horrible for us betting wise as both the Atlanta Falcons & Pittsburgh Steelers woefully underperformed to lose to the Giants & Broncos respectively, as contests though they were exciting games & this weekend should see some quality contests between the 8 teams left with a chance of a Super Bowl ring. We're kicking off with Saturday's games at New England & San Francisco as we try to find an edge to help turn a nice profit.

(Workhorse Frank Gore will have been glad of last week's bye - his running has carried the 49ers offense in 2011)

The day's first game sees a classic offense versus defense matchup as the hugely exciting New Orleans Saints travel to take on the resilient San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. We're normally big fans of great defenses coming out on top of great offenses but we're pretty sweet on the Saints in this one especially now that the season seems to be being dominated by great quarterbacks & you could argue that Drew Brees is the best of the lot with the most yards & touchdown passes this year. The Saints were less than perfect against the Lions last week & trailed at the half but came through with a dominant 2nd half display to win 45-28, the 49ers don't have the offensive weapons of Detroit & it would be surprising if they could get anyway near their total.

 (Jimmy Graham just keeps getting it done & he can score again against San Francisco)

Led by Alex Smith at quarterback the 49ers ranked just 26th in total offense but 4th on defense & lost just  3 times, of course it did help that the were in the awful NFC West meaning 6 of their games were against the lowest of low grade opposition. To be blunt Smith really isn't a very good quarterback but the 49ers realised this & attempted to pass the ball less than anyone apart from the Broncos, that seemed to help Smith who threw just 5 interceptions & 17 touchdowns, instead the bulk of the work has been left to power running back Frank Gore. Gore was handed the ball over 280 times in the year & gained 1,211 yards with 8 TDs, he's an all-action back & willl cause New Orleans defense trouble who concede a very high average of 5 yards a rushing attempt. When they do pass it will be to Michael Crabtree & Vernon Davis, tight end Davis had 6 touchdowns on the year & looks the man to get another in this one at odds of 6/5 to score a TD at anytime he looks a good bet. Their defense is the real star & are particularly good at stopping the run, NaVorro Bowman has been freakishly effective with 143 combined tackles & the rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks. They'll have to be at their best to stop the Saints as they've been unstoppable, they have a pretty good run game but will happily abandon it if it's ineffective & relying on Brees is no bad thing, he'll connect on most passes as usual & will unlikely give up too many chances of an interception. Tight end Jimmy Graham came up good for us last week & can score again at odds of 4/6 to add to the 12 TDs he has for the season. The Saints defense could have some fun too as they blitz the second most in the league, it's the right thing to do here as Alex Smith is a weak link & we think even though they are away they can win this big & should be backed to win with -3.5 points on the handicap at 10/11.

(The Broncos v Patriots - otherwise known as the Tim Tebow show)

In Foxborough the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos & Tebowmania is running wild with everybody talking & writing about him after the Broncos surprise win against the highly fancied Steelers. We'll have our say about Tim Tebow's performnce straight away, he ran the option well as usual but wasn't spectaclar in the running game & we feel that some of his throwing in terms of distance acuracy was particularly poor, throwing passes over heads or into the ground. He was fortunate to come up against a Steelers secondary that didn't appear even remotely capable against the deep threat meaning when he did throw reasonable deep pases the were made & drew big rewards. Tim may as well stick to the same plan here as the Patriots secondary sucks & Demaryius Thomas will be hoping so as he came up with a monstrous 204 receiving yards from just 4 receptions. The Broncos real strength is in their running game which is helpful as Tebow really isn't accurate enough to be relied on, but New England aren't bad against the run & give up a reasonable 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Willis McGahee & Tim Tebow will need to find ways to keep the running game going to keep the ball on their offense & away from the Patriots & top passer Tom Brady.

(Wes Welker is the league's leading receiver yet available at 15/2 to score 1st - get on!)

Brady was awesome as usual during the season, completing nearly 66% of passes & hitting receivers for 39 touchdowns, when he's in the zone it looks impossible for him to throw a bad pass & he has great chemistry with his receivers. The tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski along with wide receiver Wes Welker are Brady's favourite targets & the league leading Welker looks a great price to score first at 15/2, he had the most receiving yards in the league & caught 22 more passes than his nearest challenger - he's a lethal weapon & will be looked to here. The Patriots can run the ball too & although BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get most carries we love to see tiny Danny Woodhead running the ball against guys twice his size, he makes the most of being small to get through gaps & even gets his share of passes. New England hve developed a bad habit of falling behind (by sizeable margins) but then coming back supremely strongly, with the number one seed giving them a bye last week coach Bill Belichick will have tried to solve that problem, the Broncos may not have the offensive capability to take advantage anyway. Last week will have been physically & emotionally draining for the Broncos & we expect New England to dominate from start to finish, back the Patriots to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 30/100 for a real 'like buying money' bet.

Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat San Francisco 49ers with -3.5 points at 10/11 (general)
Vernon Davis to score a Touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Skybet)
Jimmy Graham to score a Touchdown at anytime  at 4/6 (general)

New England to beat Denver Broncos half time/full at 3/10 (Boylesports, Coral & William Hill)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (Paddy Power)

NFL Wildcard Round - Steelers to dispose of Denver

Houston & New Orleans won their games on Saturday as expected & we're now on to the final two wildcard games with Denver hosting Pittsburgh & Atlanta travelling to New York to face the Giants, we think one of the underdogs can win but it shouldn't be Denver unless Tim Tebow really can get some divine intervention going!

(The scene that Steelers fans don't want to see - Roethlisberger on the ground)

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Denver as 5th seeds to face the Broncos as 4th seeds in the AFC, that seeding doesn't really indicate the strength of these sides as Denver only had an 8 & 8 season in the mediocre AFC West whilst the Steelers had a great 12 & 4 season in the AFC's best division the AFC North, the Broncos automatically got seeded higher as tehy won their division. It should be noted that the Broncos have overachieved just by getting to the playoffs, after winning just 1 of their first 5 they turned to unorthodox quarterback Tim Tebow & won 7 of their next 8, often from unlikely positions after trailing with just moments left. Tebow has clearly helped them in clutch situations but it's rarely been through the use of his arm as the team trailed in 31st place in terms of passing yards but led the league in rushing yards, thanks to the quarterback option offense  the excellent back Willis McGahee who was just one yard shy of hitting 1200 on the ground. The Broncos only scored over 20 points in 3 of the 11 games since their bye week & that looks highly unlikely to be increased against the league's best defense, the Steelers are giving up just 14.2 points a game & less than 280 yards of total offense.

(Wide receiver Mike Wallace can continue to star for Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh have stars on both sides of the ball with Troy Polamalu, James Harrison & Brett Keisel standing out on defense & quarterback Ben Roethlisberger teaming up with his talented wide receiver corps on offense including Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders & the evergreen Hines Ward. The Steelers do have problems on offense though as Big Ben is suffering from a sprained ankle & first choice running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the playoffs with a torn ACL. They should be able to cope withour Mendenhall as they have a good backup in the powerful Isaac Redman but they need to keeep Roethlisberger as protected as possible against the Broncos very good pass rush. The real heroes in the Broncos push to the playoffs has been their defense with outstanding rookie linebacker Von Miller & defensive end Elvis Dumervil combining for 20 quaarterback sacks this year. The Steelers really will want to keep Ben as healthy as possible & hope his ankle recuperates as they go through the playoffs, we wouldn't be surprised to see them very aggresive early on in order to establish a commanding lead so they can remove him from the game. Antonio Brown has really started to establish himself in the Steelers' passing game & it wouldn't surprise us to see him get a touchdown but Mike Wallace is their number one at the moment  the 7/1 on him to score the first touchdown looks a nice bet. Denver scored just 3 points against the Chiefs in theirr final regular season game & it was one they were aiming to win, it looks like being an uphill struggle all day & Pittsburgh should be able to comfortably cover the -7.5 point spread on offer at 20/21 with Ladbrokes.

(Atlanta Falcons fans won't be complaining if they see catches like this from Julio Jones)

In the earlier game the Atlanta Falcons take their talented offense to face off against the 2008 Super Bowl winners the New York Giants. The historically strong Giants defense has not done too well this year, ranking only 27th overall & just 29th against the pass & that can largely be put down to some atrocious play against the deep pass, we think that spells trouble against the Falcons who ranked 8th in passing in the regular season & have potent threats in Roddy White & especially Julio Jones when they go down the field. With tight end Tony Gonzalez still hoovering up any short passes & Michael Turner doing it in the running game as well as when he comes out of the backfield the Falcons can move the ball anyway they want. The Falcons  do tend to be much better at home & the Giants are comingoff of two nice wins but it was only 3 weeks ago that they lost to the mediocre at best Washington Redskins & the Cowboys did somewhat implode (as usual) at the end of the season. Passer Eli Manning has carried their offensive game as they rank last in the rush & that isn't good news in the playoffs, having a one note game makes it easy to defend a team & we can't be having the Giants as favourites here. If the Falcons were at home we think they'd be strong favourites with the bookmakers, their away form is a little worrisome but they did win at Detroit earlier in the year which isn't easy & we want to be with the Falcons to beat the Giants at 6/4, in terms of touchdown scorers we think siding with Julio Jones at 9/1 to score the first touchdown is the way to go.

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 20/21 (Ladbrokes)
Mike Wallace to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Steelers v Broncos game
Atlanta Falcons to beat New York Giants at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Julio Jones to score 1st Touchdown at 9/1 (various) in Falcons v Giants game

Double up those touchdown scorers to get massive odds of 79/1

NFL Week 15 - Time's up for Tebow

Just 3 games left before the playoffs & the cream has risen to the top in just about every division, there's still plenty to play for & some big gamesin the coming weeks, we've got this round covered & hope to improve on a sorry bunch of picks last week. We went for under 38.5 total points in both the Texans v Bengals & 49ers v Cardinals games only for there to be 39 & 40 points in each respective game, that's frustrating but we can bounce back with some big winners this week & we think we've got some ace ones.

It's official, the Indianapolis Colts are the worst team in the league by a mile, they've lost all 13 games so far & have conceded the most points in the league to leave them with a league worst points difference (between what they've scored v opponents) of -198, without Peyton Manning they are dire so it makes little sense why the very decent Tennessee Titans are only 1 touchdown favourites to beat them. The Colts have been beaten by at least 7 points in their last 8 games & have only covered that spread in 2 games all season, in weeks 3 & 5, the Titans beat them 27-10 in the reverse fixture & have built up a respectable 7&6 record - it's not spectacular but it's light years ahead of Indianapolis.

(Chris Jonson can pay back a little bit of his $53m contract by scoring first against the Colts)

The Titans defense ranks 6th best in points conceded per game & their signing of Matt Hasselbeck from the Seahawks has worked out very nicely with him playing some quality football, unfortunately he damaged his hamstring in last week's game against the Saints & is doubtful here meaning that rookie Jake Locker may well be called upon. Obviously replacing your quarterback isn't ideal but Locker was the 8th pick overall in this year's draft & before his somewhat disappointing senior season in college was being predicted as a 1st overall pick so he has talent, he's seen a little action this year & already thrown 3 touchdowns & importantly no interceptions, his completion rate isn't great but if he doesn't give turnovers he's doing fine. The Titans should have the players to get the yards they need on the ground anyway with the highest earning running back in the league Chris Johnson looking to get some huge yards against the NFL's 3rd worst rushing defense. There's no doubt Johnson has been disappointing this year & he was poor against New Orleans last week but in the two games before he ran for 190 & 153 yards against the Buccaneers & Bills, they're bad defending the run & it seems he likes to bully these poorer sides, we think at 7/2 Johnson is a decent price to score the first TD. The Colts have problems all over the place, they rank 30th in sacks made, last in interceptions made, don't score points & now they've benched the season's starting QB Curtis Painter & are using perennial backup Dan Orlovsky as their passer, he's unlikely to see much joy in this one but he won't be as bad as their running game which is led by the incredibly ordinary Donald Brown. We can't see anything other than the Titans winning by at least a touchdown & should be backed with -6.5 points on the handicap, yes the Colts are at home & yes they will be desperate not to go to 0&14 but there's a reason they've lost every game so far - they are trash!

 (There won't be another miracle for Tim Tebow in this one against the Patriots)

Elsewhere the New England Patriots will have to overcome the divine inspiration that continues to guide the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos to victory in the most unlikely circumstances week after week but we think they can do it by scoring points & forcing the Broncos to use the passing game, which is where they will crumble. The Broncos have won their last 6 games even though they scored over 20 points in just 2 of them & have won their last 4 games after trailing in the last 2 minutes of the game, often Tebow & the whole offense has been dreadful in the 1st half of games but the defense has been good enough all year to keep things close enough for them to drag it out of the fire. The problem for Denver here is that they are dealing with a truly elite offense in the Patriots & if they don't start firing until late on New England will already be out of reach, the Broncos have the most rushing yards & 2nd least passing but the Pats' weakness is in their secondary against the pass & Tebow & his receivers won't be good enough to expose it. Tebow's only completing 48.5% of his passes this year & his receivers are pretty average, Eric Decker is respectable but they miss Brandon Lloyd who was traded to the Rams, that means even when they want to throw the targets aren't there & it'll prove costly here.

(The phenomenal Rob Gronkowski & the rest of the Patriot's passing game can find success at Mile High against the Broncos)

The Patriots have been on fire in the passing game having racked up 30+ points in 9 of their 13 games & Brady has found tight end Rob Gronkowski 16 times in the end zone, that's very nearly half of the 33 touchdowns Brady has thrown yet receiver Wes Welker is the league's receiving leader with 100 receptions & 1,339 yards. Brady can also go to other tight end Aaron Hernandez & deep threat Deion Branch, he also has league veteran Chad Ochocinco if he needs him & it all means that they put up points wherever they are. Brady will need to be wary of the great pass rushers the Broncos have but he has pretty good protection & has such a quick release of the ball he's only been sacked 22 times all season which is excellent for such a passing team.. They were burned for 170 rushing yards against the Redskins last week but that was their worst of the season & Brady will put up big enough numbers again for the Patriots to win by more than 7.5 points to bring up the handicap bet at 10/11.

Selections:
Tennessee Titans to beat Indianapolis Colts with -6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (general)
Chris Johnson to score first Touchdown at 7/2 (general) in Titans v Colts game
New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 10/11 (general)

Thursday Night NFL - Broncos to frustrate unconvincing Jets

Week 11 in the NFL begins with a game between the New York Jets & the resurgent Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Denver, the Jets are coming off a heavy home defeat to their main rivals the Patriots whilst Denver have won 3 of their last 4 with Tim Tebow now starting at quarterback after winning just 1 of their first 5 games. This should prove to be an interesting & different typ of game in what has become a pass dominated league with both sides being at their best with the running game.

(Lance Ball can make a case for the Broncos No 1. Running Back position with a big game against the Jets)

The Broncos managed to win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs even though they only completed two (yes just TWO) passes in the entire game & attempted just 8 in total, it goes to show the pragmatism of the coaching staff who have clearly realised, as has everybody else, Tim Tebow's weakness in the passing game. By placing Tebow in an option offense, that he so successfully mastered in college football, it gives him the best opportunity to get wins for the team & because it is s rarely seen in the professional game it may take some time for opposition defenses & coaching schemes to shut it down. The Broncos really made it clear that their plan was to focus on the run for the rest of the season when trading away the 2010 leading receiver in yards in Brandon Lloyd a month ago but Eric Decker has posted respectable yardage totals since even though he's had relatively few catches. Decker's averaging a very healthy 13.6 yards per catch & had a 56 yard touchdown for his only reception against Kansas City, his problem will be that now identified as Denver's leading receiver the Jets will place dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis covering him & he will become another receiver that gets lost on 'Revis Island'. The Broncos lost running back Knowshon Moreno for the season on Sunday & Willis McGahee also sat out the rest of the game after 4 carries but 3rd string back Lance Ball really stepped up carrying the ball 30 times for 96 yards, he will be looking to push for a starting position with another big night here. McGahee may well be back for the game but is still listed as questionable & it is safe to assume they won't want him running into walls of Jets players anyway so if they get down to the Jets goal line either Tebow himself or Ball are likely to try to run it in & backing Lance Ball at 6/4 to score the 1st touchdown at 12/1 & anytime at 6/4 looks worth an investment.

(The Jets' Darelle Revis (no.24) is one of the league's dominant cornerbacks)

The Jets were starting to look like they were getting their game together before the loss to the Patriots after decent wins against Miami, San Diego & Buffalo but tehy weren't the toughest sides & their weaknesses really showed against New England. Mark Sanchez really fails to impress as a quarterback as far as we're concerned not getting close to breaking the 60% pass completion rate in any of his season's so far, he has very decent receivers in Santonio Holmes & Plaxico Burress (in his comeback season after shooting himself in the leg & completing jail time) but Sanchez doesn't find them often enough with too many passes being overthrown. The Jets are basically a rushing team but their rush offense hasn't been able to get it going this year & are ranked 24th, they are ranked just 20th in passing yards also & are going to miss 2nd string back LaDainian Tomlinson here who provides an excellent threat in short yardage situations. The Jets will need to make the most of their possessions as the Broncos will eat up a lot of clock with the running game but with LT out they may struggle to convert 3rd downs & end up punting more often than they'd like. The Jets defense is pretty good, partly because they shut down a team's lead receiver with Revis & then force teams reliant on that one receiver to go to the run, thus making them predictable - that won't work here as the Broncos want to run it & pretty much only run it right from the start & this could be a frustrating night for Rex Ryan & his Jets on both sides of the ball.

The New York Jets are hot favourites for this one & they could win but it isn't easy to travel up to Denver, a mile above sea level & the Denver fans will be red hot for this one after getting the man they wanted at quarterback, Sanchez & his offense will have to try to cope with the noise & make the most of the opportunities they get & at best odds of 4/11 they offer no value at all. With the clock set to be kept running for long periods of time thanks to the running game that means that the game is likely to be low scoring meaning that no team should win by a large margin & the Broncos getting +6.5 points on the handicap looks generous & needs to be bet.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat New York Jets with +6.5 points at 10/11 with Sportingbet
Lance Ball to score the 1st touchdown at 12/1 (Boylesports) & to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)