Super Bowl XLVII - Super San Francisco can batter Baltimore

This year's excellent NFL season comes to a head with an intriguing & exciting match-up between two teams coached by the Harbaugh brothers as John's Baltimore Ravens represent the AFC & Jim's San Francisco 49ers come in as NFC champions. Both teams have plenty going for them as you would expect for sides that have reached this stage, we're taking a look at the strengths & weaknesses of both teams as we seek out the value from the mass of betting markets available.

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Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

(The 49ers Colin Kaepernick aims to keep his dream story going in the Super Bowl)

The Ravens have come through an incredibly tough post-season schedule by winning road games against the Super Bowl favourites at the time Denver Broncos then New England Patriots & that entitles them to respect as on paper this is just as tough but no more so than those games at Mile High  Foxboro. Their regular season form was less impressive with not an overly tough schedule, they lost only two of their first 11 but then limped home with just one win in 5 & have done well to rally as they looked all out of steam. The return of their inspirational, & somewhat controversial, linebacker & leader Ray Lewis for the playoffs has clearly given them a lift & having him & Terrell Suggs on the field has improved them defensively. It has however been the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco that has most impressed with him making great decisions all though the playoffs with 8 touchdowns thrown & zero interceptions. We're not big Flacco fans here as we're unsure he does enough considering the receiver talent he has to aim for but he's been great in recent games with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith the beneficiaries with touchdowns & receptions.

Running back Ray Rice was as consistent as ever this year but with Flacco's recent play & the emergence of Bernard Pierce as a backup he's maybe not quite as key as he has been in previous seasons & that's maybe for the best as the 49ers are notoriously tough to run against & opposition teams gained just 94.2 yards per game on the ground against them on average. The 49ers are rock solid defensively & have been for some time now but this season with the addition of Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, after Alex Smith missed out a couple of games with injury, they've become an exciting offensive force. Kaepernick has added in the best qualities that many of the college quarterbacks coming into the NFL have with his ability to take off & make plays with his feet rather than just sit in the pocket & pass.

(Ray Lewis's 16 year reign of defensive terror comes to an end this Sunday)

Kaepernick is hardly a slouch though when it comes to passing with his 8.3 yards per completion being a league high for a passer with more than 50 attempts, it's his running ability & the all round running threat of the team that sets up those big passing plays. Michael Crabtree is the main man at receiver for the 49ers & he's been great in the playoffs whilst Vernon Davis eventually came to life in last week's win against the Falcons with 5 receptions, 106 yards & a touchdown. We love Vernon here at Like Buying Money & would love to see him with a big game although his odds for scoring are a little too short for us, Frank Gore looks a better alternative & odds of 7/1 for him to get the first touchdown look big, he's scored consistently through the season & bagged 3 TDs over his last two games vs Green Bay & Atlanta. The 49ers don't have the receiver options that the Ravens do but with Baltimore not having a dominating cornerback they may get away with it & the veteran Randy Moss could pop up as he has done before in many a big game.

On defense the 49ers are impeccable, ranking 4th against the pass & run & conceding just 17.1 points per game during the regular season & there's no reason to think that high level of performance should drop here with NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis's all-action games being a key component of the league's best front 7. In the secondary San Francisco aren't quite so dominant but their pass ruch makes up for it making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find the space to pass effectively & Flacco hasn't necessarily got the evasiveness of someone like the Steelers' Ben Roethelisberger. The 49ers can stifle the Ravens with their defense, pound them with their running game & use the run plus Kaepernick's ability to take off to set up the big passing plays & this looks like proving one game too many for John Harbaugh's men.

The game takes place at the Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints, & the 49ers already have a victory here this season - that can help inspire them to a convincing victory over the Ravens who may have used up all of their post-season luck & performance with two big underdog victories already. Back the San Francisco 49ers to show why they are feared by every team & for them to cover a makeable -3.5 handicap spread at odds of 20/21.

(Linebacker Aldon Smith is a live outsider at 66/1 for the MVP award)

The Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) award is always a big betting heat & with the dominance of quarterbacks getting the prize it's no surprise to see Kaepernick & Flacco as the 1st & 2nd favourites at 6/4 & 3/1. As we feel the 49ers are going to win we have to go with Kaepernick as the award has only once not gone to a player on the winning team & that was 42 years ago but for a small wager it may be worth getting on young linebacker Aldon Smith at huge odds of 66/1 to spring a shock. Smith is a veritable 'sack monster' who gained 19.5 sacks in the regular season to sit behind only the incredible J.J. Watt & he got himself 5.5 in one game vs the Bears, he's been quiet on the sacks front in his last few games but we think he could come to life on the big stage & terrorise Joe Flacco if given the chance. Ray Lewis would be a sentimental choice (for some at least...) for the award in his final game after such an illustrious career but the odds available (12/1 at best & shorter in general) are very short for a player in his position.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with -3.5 points at 20/21 (William Hill & SportingBet)
Colin Kaepernick to win Super Bowl MVP award at 6/4 (William Hill)
Aldon Smith to win Super Bowl MVP award at 66/1 (SportingBet, Stan James & BetVictor)
Frank Gore to score first touchdown at 7/1 (Various)

NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Divisional Round - Broncos to serve Ravens up a dish of Deja Vu

We're onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs & the two Saturday games are previewed here as Denver & San Francisco look to home field advantage & a rested squad whilst Baltimore & Green Bay look to carry the momentum of their wins last week. In last week's matches we were just middling, getting the Bengals @ Texans unders & Baltimore to win HT/FT fairly easily but having quarterback injury let us down in the other games (Christian Ponder & RGIII), hopefully injuries won't be as key in this week's games.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

These two sides meet again after facing off in week 15, in that game Denver basically humiliated Baltimore in their own stadium going up 34-3 in the 4th quarter before the Ravens responded with 10 consolation points late on - this will be even tougher as the Ravens try to overcome the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

(Broncos heart throb Eric Decker looks overpriced to haul in the first touchdown)

The Broncos now have outright favouritism for the Super Bowl with most firms & it's easy to see why as they've had a tremendous run winning their final 11 games, often impressively, after losing 3 of their first 5, admittedly to some very smart opponents. Peyton Manning has conclusively proved any doubters wrong, showing that he is fully recovered from the major surgery undertaken last year, now including the arm strength that understandably took a couple of games to get back. This is a side that got to the playoffs in 2011 (& won a game!) with Tim Tebow under centre - to have one of the very best quarterbacks of all time instead it now seems blindingly obvious that we should all have been backing Denver at the start of the season! The Broncos match up their outstanding quarterback play with some explosive defense that ranks 2nd overall in yards conceded per game & is outstanding against both the run & pass (ranking 3rd against each). They have great players through the defense with Champ Bailey one of the all time great cornerbacks, Von Miller is arguably the best defender in the league & Elvis Dumervil is a great defensive end, they look sure to be able to deal with anything the Ravens throw at them.

We were keen on the Ravens to beat Indianapolis last week but that was because the Colts were some way short of being as good as their win record suggested, this is a different proposition & it seems difficult to see how they'll keep pace with a team they were so outplayed by just a month ago. It looks like they will be prepared to throw some bombs downfield though if last week's game is anything to go by where Anquan Boldin gained 145 receiving yards, all coming in the 2nd half of the game, those deep passes are what Joe Flacco does best as he undeniably has a strong arm although he could look instead to the younger Torrey Smith this time. The Ravens' vaunted defense hasn't been as strong this year, with injuries & the ravages of age taking their toll, this looks likely to be legendary linebacker Ray Lewis's final game, he did well on comeback last week but may feel the effects of being out from week 6 onwards in this game. Ray Rice & young backup running back Bernard Pierce may be in the game plan to begin with but if the Ravens fall behind they'll be forced to pass & we can see Flacco getting sacked & throwing multiple interceptions as the Broncos force home a crushing win. Take Denver with -9 points to win this game, they beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore & can at least match that here. Looking at the touchdown scorers it looks like Broncos receiver Eric Decker is overpriced at 8/1 to get the first TD, he's their leading touchdown scorer with 13 & bagged himself 5 in the last 3 games so is red hot at the moment.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

This game is a rematch of these two teams first game of the season but takes place at the 49ers' Candlestick Park rather than Green Bay's famous Lambeau Field, these are arguably the NFC's top two teams so promises to be a great contest.

(Colin Kaepernick could be on the run for the 49ers)

The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game last time round only to end up just pipped to getting to the Super Bowl by the New York Giants, they'll be hoping for better this time around & need to start off by beating the Packers but they have somewhat controversially ditched quarterback Alex Smith for the still relatively untested Colin Kaepernick who now faces his biggest challenge by some margin. Kaepernick came into the side in week 10 after Smith was concussed & that means he's played just 7 full games yet faces off today against the Packers' turnover creating defense & has to keep pace with one of the league's best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. In the medium to long term we think bringing Kaepernick in is a good decision for the 49ers as he definitely has more scope than Alex Smith & has an added dimension of being a great athlete able to take off at any time with the ball, however in the short term it could prove costly here as this is a team that were championship contenders with Smith & his experience & decision making could have been crucial especially as they remain foremost a hard running, hard defense team.

Frank Gore is the 49ers star attacker & he put up his 6th 1,000+ rushing yards season this time around, the fact that 4 of his 5 lowest rushing games of the season coincided with the 4 losses San Francisco sustained shows just how important he is to the team. The Packers are only average at stopping the run & it's surely the 49ers best chance of success as even if Kaepernick is on his game he doesn't really have a lot of targets to pass to & seems to have somewhat zoned in exclusively on Michael Crabtree in recent weeks, top tight end Vernon Davis has gained just 6 receptions in their last 6 games. Of course the 49ers' greatest strength is on defense where they are a tour de force against the pass & run, ranking 2nd in points conceded per game (just 17.1), the leader is 2nd season linebacker Aldon Smith who came up with 19.5 sacks but the whole front 7 are outstanding & almost certainly the best in football at the moment.

The Packers' offensive line has been a weakness for some time & that 49er pressure is going to mean Rodgers will get repeatedly hit in the game, yet he's been used to that all season & yet still manages to post outstanding numbers, rarely panicking & throwing poor passes whilst under intense pressure by defenders. Rodgers seems to know when to take a sack too which remains a skill many quarterbacks still haven't acquired (Tony cough Romo cough!), he's got a great set of receivers to pass to & if he can escape the pressure he'll make some big plays in this one with so many 49ers on pass rush. Randall Cobb has really established himself in his 2nd season & got 80 receptions on the year, staying as Rodgers' most dependable receiver all season, Jordy Nelson is back & fit after missing a couple of games & James Jones will be looking to add to his huge haul of 14 TD receptions - they can definitely hurt San Fran.

(Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson can swing this in Green Bay's favour)

The Packers' key players in this one may however be on defense where they need to force Colin Kaepernick into making the mistakes that will finish the 49ers. A.J. Hawk & Clay Matthews will put him under pressure & they now have their outstanding veteran cornerback Charles Woodson back to make the plays in the backfield, he made a real difference against the Vikings last week & may prove crucial here. The 49ers were our pre-season pick to make the Super Bowl for the NFC but we're abandoning them here as we see Rodgers v Kaepernick as pivotal & we have to side with the proven quantity, take Green Bay to win as 13/10 outsiders.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat Baltimore Ravens with -9 points handicap at 10/11 (Coral, William Hill & SkyBet)
Eric Decker to score first touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
Green Bay Packers to beat San Francisco 49ers at 13/10 (Boylesports, William Hill & Pinnacle)

NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 10 - Terrific Texans can hunt down Brutal Bears

The NFL is back & we're getting to the final stretch where every game is crucial as teams look to get the records they'll need to make the playoffs & make a Super Bowl run, the bookies seem to think most divisions are already decided but there could be a few upsets along the way & it may even be that the Falcons unbeaten record is under serious threat tonight against New Orleans. We've previewed a couple of games as we look to turn another tidy profit after last Sunday's straightforward pair of selections.

St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

We start off with what may be an uninspiring contest to watch but a decent betting opportunity between two teams that have been struggling to put points on the board recently but are tough to beat on the other side of the ball. The 49ers scored just 40 points in their 3 games before the bye week & the Rams bagged just 41 points in their 3 games, including the 45-7 loss to the Patriots at Wembley.

(Daryl Richardson is becoming a big part of the Rams' offense)

The sides rank 24th (St Louis) & 28th (San Francisco) in passing yards & instead tend to rely on their running game (both rank in bottom 6 teams for passing attempts per game). That reliance on the run means that the clock keeps running more often (incomplete passes stop the clock) & that tends to lead to lower scoring games with less plays & that is reflected with 5 of the 49ers' games going under today's set points total & half of the Rams' games have gone under 39 points too. There's good reason to think it even more likely today as the 49ers have conceded the fewest points per game in the league with a dominant defense that harasses the quarterback & is rock solid against the running game, Aldon Smith is a particular star but the whole unit is outright scary.

The Rams' defensive record would look better if it wasn't for that blowout against the Patriots & the week before they ran into the high powered Green Bay offense & gave up 30 points there (not disrespectable against them), when they faced some of the lesser lights on offense they've limited those teams pretty well: Seahawks 13 points; Cardinals 3 points; Dolphins 17 points. On the offensive side of the ball the Rams have really missed Danny Amendola at receiver after his shoulder injury, he was really emerging as a big threat & there is a possibility he could return in this one but they are still a little light in passing weapons even with Chris Givens recently coming through as a legitimate deep threat with catches of 50+ yards in each of his last 3 games. Both teams will lean heavily on their tailbacks but whilst Frank Gore has been averaging 82 rushing yards a game the Rams' feature back Steven Jackson hasn't had one 80+ yard game this year & Daryl Richardson is now sharing many of the carries. We can't see anything other than a defensive battle here & San Francisco should win, the value lies however with the St Louis Rams with a big +12.5 point lead on the handicap because if it's low scoring the 49ers will struggle to pull away.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears

For our money this is the standout game of the week with two highly fancied teams for the Super Bowl from either conference taking each other on with identical 7&1 records having both only been beaten by the Packers this season - it's the Houston Texans travelling to the Chicago Bears for a rumble!

(Matt Schaub - well protected by his O-Line)

If there is a word of warning for backers of either of these teams it would be that they've both had fairly undemanding schedules for the most part & that when they did come up against the high powered offense of the Packers both sides failed, they did both bounce back creditably though & both have some scarily good defenses & excellent running backs. Both teams rank joint 3rd with sacks gained this season with 25 each & J.J. Watt continues to prove  unstoppable for the Texans whilst the Bears have 4 players with 4 or more sacks & Charles 'Peanut' Tillman has forced an incredible 7 fumbles on the year (as many as the Texans whole team).

Both sides are also great against the run with the Texans ranking 2nd in yards given up (& would be1st but no one bothers to run against Tampa Bay as their pass defense is so laughable!) & the Bears rank 6th, the big thing to note about the Texans is that along with New England they've allowed only one run of 20+ yards all year showing the high levels of concentration they possess. The Texans are 4th against the pass whilst the Bears only rank 16th, the big difference being that Chicago have come up with a huge 17 interceptions & are generally built for turnovers with Tim Jennings coming up with 6 of his 13 career interceptions this season. Houston's cornerbacks Kareem Jackson & Johnathan Joseph have come up with a few picks themselves but the Bears are almost unmatchable in terms of their picks.

(The Bears' Jay Cutler - not so well protected...)

So we've identified both teams are ace defensively but the big difference is in thee quarterback play & protection for these two sides. Whilst Matt Schaub has been sacked just 10 times all season & also thrown just 4 interceptions, Jay Cutler has been sacked 28 times (2nd highest in league) & thrown 8 picks. It's just going to be much easier to get to Cutler than it is to Schaub & the Bears gameplan of creating turnovers may not work in this one. The Bears also only have one wideout with over 200 receiving yards, Brandon Marshall, & although he's been excellent the Texans will be pleased to know they only have one receiving target to really worry about. The Texans have 4 receivers with 200+ yards including their fullback James Casey & tight end Owen Daniels as they use their play action passing game to full effect. We like Chicago running back Matt Forte but can't see him having much joy in this one as Houston have the speedy players too stop him being elusive & this could instead be the game where Arian Foster proves he is 'the' elite running back in the NFL. The Bears defense are great but the Texans are too efficient & the league's 2nd highest scorers can prevail in this one at odds of 11/10, also take Houston to win by 7-12 points at 6/1 with William Hill.

Selections:
St Louis Rams to beat San Francisco 49ers with +12.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Chicago Bears at 11/10 (Ladbrokes) & by 7-12 points at 6/1 (William Hill)

Monday Night Football - Points hard to find in the Arizona Desert

We're concentrating on the NFL this Monday night as we can't get any consensus between contributors on the Sheffield United vs Portsmouth game from League One! The San Francisco 49ers are visiting the Arizona Cardinals in the desert & it looks an intriguing game between the NFC West rivals.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Arizona started the season out blazing a trail with 4 wins in a row including an impressive victory against the fancied New England Patriots at Foxborough but that good start has come grinding to a halt with three losses in a row to some of the league's lesser lights although all have been by a touchdown score or less. The 49ers have been trading at low prices for the Super Bowl after reaching the NFC championship game last season & have at times looked dominant but sometimes struggled when unable to establish their running game & have scored just 16 points over the last two weeks.

(Aldon Smith Sacking John Skelton could be something we see a lot of in this one)

San Francisco certainly have no problems on defense where they rank first overall in yards given up & have been especially difficult to pass against this year ranking first again & averaging just 272 yards against them in the air. The 49ers also remain tough to run against even though their giving up 20 more yards a game running than in 2011 when they led the league, their also the best team at running the football themselves with Frank Gore having a tremendous year up at 5.8 yards a carry for 601 yards total  he's backed up well by Kendall Hunter. The only problem the 49ers have is when it comes to passing where they rank 29th (of 32) in the league with just 199.9 yards a game, Alex Smith has actually done ok with a decent passer rating & completion stats but he's been sacked way too much (18) for a quarterback who doesn't make many attempts per game (27.1).

The Cardinals have also allowed their passers to get hit way too much with Kevin Kolb sacked a league high 27 times even though he didn't start in week one & is now out injured not playing last week either. John Skelton got sacked 7 times last week against the Vikings & it seems difficult to see how they are suddenly going to improve here against a physically dominant 49er front line who although only have 11 sacks in the year so far do manage to get great pressure on the passer & Aldon Smith in particular could have a field day. The Cards are without their leading rusher Ryan Williams & it will be most likely left up to La-Rod Stephens-Howling to step up & make the carries but this will be the toughest defense he's faced this year & he's only been getting 3 yards a carry anyway. Skelton is a mediocre quarterback anyway & with pressure in his face he's unlikely to find star receivers Andre Roberts & Larry Fitzgerald who represent Arizona's bets chance of success, it looks outright impossible for them to get the scores they need to compete here. On the plus side the Cards do have a good defense, ranking 7th overall, & the most points they've conceded in a game is just 21 (twice) so they shouldn't necessarily take a beating. Only one Arizona game has gone over 38 points & just two San Francisco games so take the under 38.5 total points on offer at 10/11 & enjoy the defensive battle.

Selections:
Under 38.5 points in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game at 10/11 (Various)

Road to the Super Bowl 2012 - NFC Season Preview

We love the NFL here at Like Buying Money & turned a very healthy profit overall on our bets last year with some particularly nice pickups in the touchdown scorers markets. We'll be blogging throughout the season with bets for each week's games but we'll begin with a preview of the NFC (National Football Conference) & their 16 teams that contain amongst them the last 3 Super Bowl champions in the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers & New Orleans Saints. Our preview of the AFC can be found here & if you aren't doing so already keep up with our updates throughout the season by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button up above.

(Are the Giants about to go from Super Bowl heroes to NFC East zeros?)

NFC East

The NFC East seems the logical conference to begin, as it is brutal! You've got Super Bowl champs the New York Giants in here plus the Philadelphia Eagles who have a roster stacked full of talent & the Dallas Cowboys who were arguably the best side to not make the playoffs last year. In addition to those three sides who would prove a match for anyone else in the league you've also got the Washington Redskins who although only ended up with a 5&9 season last year but 5 of their losses were by a touchdown or less & they've picked up a tremendously exciting talent through the draft in Robert Griffin III. RG3 as he's otherwise known is one of the brightest young quarterback prospects to have come through in years & could have propelled the Redskins to a winning season if it wasn't for such a tough schedule where the NFC East faces the AFC North (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland & Cincinnatti) & the NFC South where the Falcons & Saints are tough foes.

The Eagles are favourites to win the division & we can see why as on offense with quarterback Michael Vick is right up there with the very best players around & a top running back in LeSean McCoy who had a massive 20 TDs last year & good receivers in Maclin & DeSean Jackson. We do worry about Vick's durability though as he's only played a full 16 game season once in his 9 years in the NFL & he's likely to get hurt with the amount of rushing he does. The Eagles also have some top defensive players, especially their backs & Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the very best cornerbacks in the game, unfortunately the unit didn't really gel as a whole last year until the last few games. Due to there still being a slight uncertainty in their defense & Vick's robustness we can't advise a bet on them to win the NFC East at 9/5, the Cowboys could run them close but we've a feeling the Giants will slide.

Thanks to topping the division last year the Giants have an even more punishing schedule than their divisional rivals as they have to play the other division winners from the NFC meaning the intimidating Packers & Falcons are added to their schedule, they travel to the Falcons & that will be tough as they are outstanding when in the Georgia Dome. The Giants undoubtedly have weapons on offense & defense with big playmaking receivers Hakeem Nicks & Like Buying Money favourite Victor Cruz worthy of particular mention, but they were only 7&7 two games before the end last year & had to win both to make the playoffs. At odds of 11/10 with Boylesports it's worth a bet that the Giants win less than 9 games this year in the regular season.

NFC South

(Dual deep threats Julio Jones & Roddy White will terrorise defenses for the Atlanta Falcons)

We're loving the chances of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South even though the New Orleans Saints took it last year & we'll be going with them at 6/4 to win the division. The Falcons are a passing team with two top tier receivers in Roddy White & 2nd season rookie Julio Jones, Matt Ryan is a hell of a passer when getting into a rhythm & they should blow most teams away when at home in the Georgia Dome. They only lost once at home last year & that was to the Saints who had an outstanding 13&3 season to top the division but there has been huge controversy in the off-season for New Orleans with suspensions to their coaching staff & top linebacker Jonathan Vilma likely to see them deteriorate in 2012.

As well as their passing attack the Falcons have a top running back in Michael Turner who has 50 rushing touchdowns in his four years in the side & he's got safe hands when going out of the backfield to make a reception too, really improving in that side of his game in the last two years. The offensive line of Atlanta is one of the best around, giving Matt Ryan time to pass & you shouldn't see him sacked too many times over the year. Their rush defense was impressive too last year (ranked 6th in yards given up) & they've looked to improve their pass defense by bringing in four time Pro Bowl selection Asante Samuel at cornerback & if he has a big season he could be pivotal in their quest for securing home field advantage in the playoffs.

The Carolina Panthers & Tampa Bay Buccaneers are both open to improvement after losing seasons but the Buccaneers need to sort out their dreadful defense (draft pick Mark Barron at string safety was a positive move) & Josh Freeman needs to move on from a season where he threw 22 interceptions (2nd most in the league). Carolina meanwhile were hugely reliant on Steve Smith at receiver in the passing game last year but he's now 33 years old & can't keep going forever & they also need to improve their defense considerably to start challenging for a playoff spot. The Saints certainly have the talent to win the division again but having your head coach & other key members suspended for the year will be debilitating to the side in what is such a technical game, they'll compete on talent alone & put up plenty of yards through the air (Brees to Jimmy Graham will be a regular play again) but we have to push Atlanta ahead of them here.

NFC North

(The Bears' Matt Forte will be leaving defenders in his wake again in 2012)

The NFC North is another division with plenty of depth with the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears & Detroit Lions all teams with the ability to progress through the playoffs if getting there, only the Vikings can be confidently ruled out here & they're in for another season of struggle after finishing 3&13 in 2011. The Packers are strong favourites to win the division at 1/2 & that's fair considering they lost just one regular season game last year & completed a clean sweep v their divisional rivals but it isn't a price we want to take on a season long bet.

The Detroit Lions had young quarterback Matthew Stafford announce himself to the league last year as he went pass crazy attempting 47 more passes than anyone else in the league & being 5th most accurate whilst becoming just the 5th to throw for over 5,000 yards in NFL history. The 5,000+ yards is watered down a little thanks to two other passers also managing it in the year (indicating what a passing game it has become) but it was still an impressive year & he threw 25 more TDs (41) than interceptions (16), of course it helps when you have 'Megatron' Calvin Johnson at receiver. Johnson was dominant last year & is for our money the very best in the league, he averaged over 105 receiving yards per game & hauled in 16 touchdowns even whilst being double covered in many games, he's basically impossible to shutdown without risking pass interference calls, he'll have another huge season but is probably too short at around 4/1 to be the leading receiver in yards gained when you see some of the defenses the Lions are facing this year. The Lions defense is pretty scary too & has another of our favourites on board in the violently brilliant Ndamukong Suh, he was the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft & has proven his worth & is arguably just about the best defensive tackle in the game in between stomping on people by "accident". If they could somehow secure home field advantage we reckon they could make a push for the Super Bowl, unfortunately this division is just too competitive & they'll instead have to be happy if they can get a playoff spot.

The Chicago Bears are no fools either & have an excellent defense led by the indefatigable linebacker Brian Urlacher & top defensive end & sack machine Julius Peppers, teams basically can't run the ball against the Bears but their defensie nve backs are still a vulnerability when the pass rush doesn't get to the quarterback. The Bears were unfortunate last year when suffering injuries to quarterback Jay Cutler & running back Matt Forte when looking good for a playoff spot only to then lose 5 in a row & finishing with an 8&8 year. Chicago have every chance of playoff action this year but keeping their best offensive player Matt Forte fit is imperative, he's a very good rusher but also offers the best receiving threat in his position in the league & has had 50+ receptions in all 4 of his seasons, the Bears have upgraded at receiver (they needed to) by bringing in Brandon Marshall but Forte will still get an awful lot of calls. The Bears don't have too horrible a schedule as they only finished 3rd in the division last year & we can see 9 games we'd strongly expect them to win outside of their 4 matches with the Packers & Lions so going for Betfred's offer of 11/10 about over 9.5 Bears regular season wins is a bet we like.

NFC West

Of course after three competitive divisions we come to the rather light on talent NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers walked this last year with 13 wins & the league's meanest run defense & we can't see any of the other three limited teams making a push to take top spot here.

(The San Francisco 49ers defense is just about the best in the league)

The Arizona Cardinals ended with an 8&8 season last time but it won't be easy to end up with as good a record this time around with a pretty tough schedule thanks to finishing 2nd in the division last year. The Cardinals do have a decent running back in Beanie Wells, although he needs to be kept fit, & an outstanding playmaker in receiver Larry Fitzgerald, unfortunately they don't have too much else on the offensive side of the ball unless some players step up, maybe at receiver Andre Roberts can improve & 1st round draft pick Michael Floyd is certainly a talent. On defense the Cards are solid enough but don't tend to make too many big plays, they had just 10 interceptions last year & Richard Marshall who had 3 has moved to the Dolphins, linebacker Daryl Washington stepped up from his rookie year in 2011 with 5 sacks & two picks & they'll look for him to lead again. Patrick Peterson is one of the league's best young talents at cornerback & if they get their defensive talent going the Cardinals could upset a few teams, they will need to though as they're one of the very weaakest in the quarterback position with young John Skelton being given the starting spot even though he's had poor passer ratings of 62.3 & 68.9 in his two seasons in the league.

The St Louis Rams who are appearing London this year) ended up with the joint worst record last year when they registered just two wins & failed to get a divisional win, they are being tipped by many to improve & they seem to have some decent individuals on the roster but they haven't had a winning record since 2003 & won't get one this year. The Rams offensive line is dreadful & let quarterback Sam Bradford get hit too many times last year, until the pass protection improves & they get a significant upgrade to their receiving corps they'll struggle in the passing game (ranked 30th of 32 last year in yards gained through air). Their defense isn't too bad against the pass but can't stop the run & they ranked 31st in yards conceded in 2011, on the other side of the ball Steven Jackson is a top rusher & has gained at least 1,000 yards on the ground in the last 7 seasons, he will be their key player again. It may just be that the Rams can move past the Seahawks this season as they are taking a huge risk by having 3rd round draft pick Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback. Seattle ranked 21st on the run & 22nd passing last year but we can only see them falling down the order in passing & it remains to be seen whether Marshawn Lynch can be quite as productive (& healthy) at running back this year. The Seahawks defense is just average & if their offense ends up turning the ball over & punting away more often we can see them really taking a beating this year & could slip back from the 7 wins they gained in 2011.

(Smith to Davis - when the 49ers do pass it will often be this combination)

The 49ers made it to the NFC Championship game & only lost in overtime against the Giants last year & you'd have to say they look to have made good signings in the correct positions this year & we're liking their chances of getting to the Super Bowl this time around. The 49ers are basically impossible to run against & were only conceding 77 yards on the ground last year & only ranked 17th in passing yards conceded because teams had to air it out, they did gain a joint 2nd best 23 interceptions though & 42 sacks on top of that, there's no reason to think the defense has regressed & they'll dominate plenty of offenses again. The 49ers certainly don't have the best quarterback in the league in Alex Smith but he is a very good game manager & recognises his limitations & threw a league low 5 picks last year. Smith didn't have too many options to pass to last year with only Michael Crabtree of note at receiver but Vernon Davis was excellent at tight end & ended with 792 yards & 6 TDs, they were the only receivers to get more than 20 receptions but San Francisco have looked to improve there. In the off season the 49ers picked up Mario Manningham from the Giants, A.J. Jenkins in the 1st round of the draft & one year retiree & NFL legend Randy Moss all at the receiver position & if they can pick up more yards through the air they could be scary good. At running back the 49ers are rock solid with Frank Gore able to break off big runs & pound it in around the goal line & he's got the youngster Kendall Hunter to provide relief & competition. San Francisco should dominate this division & may gain home field advantage again, they've improved & odds of 7/1 about them winning the NFC & making the Super Bowl are ones we advise taking.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to win NFC at 7/1 (general)
New York Giants to win less than 9 regular season games at 11/10 (Boylesports)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South at 6/4 (Bet365 & William Hill)
Chicago Bears to gain 10+ regular season wins at 11/10 (Betfred)

NFL Championship games - One step from the Super Bowl

A great season of football is just about winding up as the final four teams battle it out for a place in this year's Super Bowl & it means two great matchups with two of the best defenses up against some great offenses led by previous Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Tom Brady & the New England Patriots host the tough, grizzled Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game & the New York Giants have to travel across the country to come up against the NFC's best defense in the San Francisco 49ers. We've got both games previewed & some bets picked out in order to be able to enjoy it even more, as ever you can also follow us on Twitter by clicking the button above where we talk about sports in general & keep you informed of our blog updates.

(Our favourite Patriot little Danny Woodhead can help them sneak past the Ravens)

The AFC Championship is up first & sees two teams who make the playoffs pretty much perennially in the New England Patriots & Baltimore Ravens but the last time either got to the Super Bowl was in the 2007 season when the Patriots lost to the Giants, whereas Batimore have only made it once, in the 2000 season & they beat the Giants. This season the Patriots haven't lost since week 9 (again the Giants!) & have put up extraordinary point scoring performances, putting up 30+ points in 12 of 16 regular season games, they ran over Dever last week & have to be feeling confident. The Ravens also had a great regular season losing just one more than the Patriots as they went 12 & 4 & swept the tough AFC North, they managed to put away the Texans last week with a combination of great defense & Texans mistakes but they were less than impressive on offense, that could be a problem today as Brady always finds a way to score.

(Tight end Ed Dickson offers some value to score for the Ravens)

We've always made it clear that we don't rate Joe Flacco as a quarterback & last week did nothingto change our minds, admittedly he threw two TDs but did start off in awesome field position & only just got over 50% with his completion rate & just 176 passing yards, it wasagainst a very good Texans defense but better quarterbacks would've found ways to counter them. To be fair to Flacco he has only an average to good set of receivers with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith offering the deep threat whilst back Ray Rice gets passed to more than anyone else. They have improved this year at tight end with Ed Dickson coming to the fore but still don't match up to many other teams in production at the position & certainly not the Patriots with Gronkowski & Hernandez. Dickson offers a little value in Paddy Power's 'first to score a touchdown for their team market' at 7/1, he got 5 during the season & is a viable alternative to the all-action Ray Rice. The Ravens offensive strength lies in thir running game & Rice is outstanding but if they need to score quicly they'll haveto go the air & that's unlikely to be sucessful.

(Mr Dependable Wes Welker (no. 83) can get us first touchdown scorer money again)

This is a pretty good matchup for New England as they're dreadful at defending the pass but the Ravens can't pass & they've only lost at home once all year whilst the Ravens 4 defeats have all comeon the road. The Ravens are great all round on defense but are probably a bit better stopping the run than the pass, Lardarius Webb has been exceptional at cornerback recently but he'll have a size mismatch if he covers Welker this week & that could be crucial. Pretty much noone's been able to stop Tom Brady pasing this year & he'll once again look to hit his physically dominant tight ends & Welker, Chad Ochocinco might even get a pass or two thrown his way although Brady's targeted him sparingly so far. The Patriots areloking so confident right now & Brady's arm is on fire, with homefield advantage it looks like they'll overpower the Ravens right from the off & can be beating them at halftime & fulltim at odds of 4/6. It's a different matter whether the Patriots can achieve ultimate success down at Indianapolis but it looks a safe bet that their superior offense can at least get them to the big game. It again looks like the league's leading receiver Wes Welker is being underestimated, odds of 15/2 for him to score the first touchdown & should be taken - he can deliver just like last week.

(Are Tom Coughlin's red hot Giants on their way to Super Bowl rings?)

The NFC Championship game is priced up with both teams pretty near Evens with the San Francisco 49ers marginal favourites courtesy of being at home, hosting the New York Giants at Candlestick Park. Both sides upset the odds last week with the 49ers beating our Super Bowl fancies New Orleans in dramatic late fashion whilst the Giants travelled to Lambeau Field & monstered the Packers in their own stadium in a most impressive win. These sides met here earlier in the season with the 49ers winning 27-20 but that was the start of a little sticky path fo the Giants where they lost 4 in a row, they've well & truly bounced back & have played some dominant football in recent weeks. Eli Manning has started getting a little cocky & is playing well enough to back his mouth up, he has two truly great receivers in Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz & they are ably backed up by Mario Manningham  & rookie tight end Jake Ballard. Even the Giants' running game which ranked dead last in 32nd during the regular season has started to produce in the las few games with Bradshaw & Jacobs making the most of their size.

(The 49ers Vernon Davis is used to celebrating touchdowns)

San Francisco took advantage of a largely soft schedule during the regular seeason but still came up with victories over Pittsburgh, Detroit & the Giants whe they did face better opposition, they rarely scored too heavily (over 30 points just 3 times) but were superb on defense, particularly in the red zone - making opponents settle for field goals & not allowing them to run the ball with any effectiveness. That goes partly down to excellent drafting with their rookie linebacker Aldon Smith looking like one of the league's outright outstanding defenders, he had 14 regular season sacks & is lightning fast & strong as an ox. We can't say we've ever been sold on Alex Smith at quarterback, he's had plenty of chances before this season but never taken them, he is however playing his best footbal right now & has been a model of consistecy & efficiency throwing just 5 interceptions all year with 20 TDs. Smith near enough passes exclusively to Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree, Davis had a monster game last week & can take advantage of the weak Giants secondary this week, he's Evens to get a touchdown at anytime with Skybet.

 (Victor Cruz can catch & run in this one just like he's been doing all season)

The 49ers season has been based on great defense & Frank Gore's powerful runs but they've moved a little away from that in the past two games as they allowed the league's worst scorers, St. Louis, to get 27 points in a meaningful game & conceded 32 to an excellent Saints offense last week, that's hardly terrible news but those were the two highest point totals they conceded all year & it's a trend they can't afford to continue. The Giants have really started to perform when it matters, the hosted the Falcons in their first playoff game this year & held them to just two points & were supremely impressive against Green Bay, those were both better offenses than the 49ers & with everything starting to click we have to side with New York & Eli to do the business & clinch the NFC Championship at 6/5. In the first touchdown scorer market the value lies going with the Giants' Victor Cruz at 10/1, he had 9 TDs in the regular season & a massive 1,536 receiving yards, he's their number one & should be shorter than that.

Selections:
New England Patriots to be beating Baltimore Ravens at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (various)
Ed Dickson to score 1st Ravens touchdown at 7/1 (Paddy Power)

New York Giants to beat San Francisco at 6/5 (Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Victor Cruz  to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet)
Vernon Davis to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet)

Super Saints can crush 49ers Super Bowl dream

Last Sunday was horrible for us betting wise as both the Atlanta Falcons & Pittsburgh Steelers woefully underperformed to lose to the Giants & Broncos respectively, as contests though they were exciting games & this weekend should see some quality contests between the 8 teams left with a chance of a Super Bowl ring. We're kicking off with Saturday's games at New England & San Francisco as we try to find an edge to help turn a nice profit.

(Workhorse Frank Gore will have been glad of last week's bye - his running has carried the 49ers offense in 2011)

The day's first game sees a classic offense versus defense matchup as the hugely exciting New Orleans Saints travel to take on the resilient San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. We're normally big fans of great defenses coming out on top of great offenses but we're pretty sweet on the Saints in this one especially now that the season seems to be being dominated by great quarterbacks & you could argue that Drew Brees is the best of the lot with the most yards & touchdown passes this year. The Saints were less than perfect against the Lions last week & trailed at the half but came through with a dominant 2nd half display to win 45-28, the 49ers don't have the offensive weapons of Detroit & it would be surprising if they could get anyway near their total.

 (Jimmy Graham just keeps getting it done & he can score again against San Francisco)

Led by Alex Smith at quarterback the 49ers ranked just 26th in total offense but 4th on defense & lost just  3 times, of course it did help that the were in the awful NFC West meaning 6 of their games were against the lowest of low grade opposition. To be blunt Smith really isn't a very good quarterback but the 49ers realised this & attempted to pass the ball less than anyone apart from the Broncos, that seemed to help Smith who threw just 5 interceptions & 17 touchdowns, instead the bulk of the work has been left to power running back Frank Gore. Gore was handed the ball over 280 times in the year & gained 1,211 yards with 8 TDs, he's an all-action back & willl cause New Orleans defense trouble who concede a very high average of 5 yards a rushing attempt. When they do pass it will be to Michael Crabtree & Vernon Davis, tight end Davis had 6 touchdowns on the year & looks the man to get another in this one at odds of 6/5 to score a TD at anytime he looks a good bet. Their defense is the real star & are particularly good at stopping the run, NaVorro Bowman has been freakishly effective with 143 combined tackles & the rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks. They'll have to be at their best to stop the Saints as they've been unstoppable, they have a pretty good run game but will happily abandon it if it's ineffective & relying on Brees is no bad thing, he'll connect on most passes as usual & will unlikely give up too many chances of an interception. Tight end Jimmy Graham came up good for us last week & can score again at odds of 4/6 to add to the 12 TDs he has for the season. The Saints defense could have some fun too as they blitz the second most in the league, it's the right thing to do here as Alex Smith is a weak link & we think even though they are away they can win this big & should be backed to win with -3.5 points on the handicap at 10/11.

(The Broncos v Patriots - otherwise known as the Tim Tebow show)

In Foxborough the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos & Tebowmania is running wild with everybody talking & writing about him after the Broncos surprise win against the highly fancied Steelers. We'll have our say about Tim Tebow's performnce straight away, he ran the option well as usual but wasn't spectaclar in the running game & we feel that some of his throwing in terms of distance acuracy was particularly poor, throwing passes over heads or into the ground. He was fortunate to come up against a Steelers secondary that didn't appear even remotely capable against the deep threat meaning when he did throw reasonable deep pases the were made & drew big rewards. Tim may as well stick to the same plan here as the Patriots secondary sucks & Demaryius Thomas will be hoping so as he came up with a monstrous 204 receiving yards from just 4 receptions. The Broncos real strength is in their running game which is helpful as Tebow really isn't accurate enough to be relied on, but New England aren't bad against the run & give up a reasonable 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Willis McGahee & Tim Tebow will need to find ways to keep the running game going to keep the ball on their offense & away from the Patriots & top passer Tom Brady.

(Wes Welker is the league's leading receiver yet available at 15/2 to score 1st - get on!)

Brady was awesome as usual during the season, completing nearly 66% of passes & hitting receivers for 39 touchdowns, when he's in the zone it looks impossible for him to throw a bad pass & he has great chemistry with his receivers. The tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski along with wide receiver Wes Welker are Brady's favourite targets & the league leading Welker looks a great price to score first at 15/2, he had the most receiving yards in the league & caught 22 more passes than his nearest challenger - he's a lethal weapon & will be looked to here. The Patriots can run the ball too & although BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get most carries we love to see tiny Danny Woodhead running the ball against guys twice his size, he makes the most of being small to get through gaps & even gets his share of passes. New England hve developed a bad habit of falling behind (by sizeable margins) but then coming back supremely strongly, with the number one seed giving them a bye last week coach Bill Belichick will have tried to solve that problem, the Broncos may not have the offensive capability to take advantage anyway. Last week will have been physically & emotionally draining for the Broncos & we expect New England to dominate from start to finish, back the Patriots to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 30/100 for a real 'like buying money' bet.

Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat San Francisco 49ers with -3.5 points at 10/11 (general)
Vernon Davis to score a Touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Skybet)
Jimmy Graham to score a Touchdown at anytime  at 4/6 (general)

New England to beat Denver Broncos half time/full at 3/10 (Boylesports, Coral & William Hill)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (Paddy Power)

NFL Week 17 - Eli Manning to lead Giants to the playoffs

It's the final round of regular season games in the NFL meaning there are plenty of games that have little bearing on the playoff picture & punters need to be mindful of teams resting key players in preparation for the knockout stages. Other games have much bigger significance with them helping to decide the final few teams to go to the playoffs or potential seedings meaning teams get byes from the 1st week of action or gain homefield advantage. We've taken these factors along with overall & current form of the teams as well as where there are favourable matchups on offense & defense to find the best bets for this week.

(Justin Smith & his 49ers defense can smother up the Rams - it's not difficult)

We're starting out at St. Louis where the Rams host the San Francisco 49ers as the away team try to win to secure the NFC's No. 2 seed & that important first round bye, that shouldn't be in any danger of not happening as the 49ers have lost just 3 times this year whilst the Rams have won just twice. Last time the teams met the excellent 49ers defense shut out the Rams in a 26-0 win & St. Louis again failed to put a single point on the board last week against the Steelers. In terms of offensive yards per game the Rams are ranked 2nd last but in points gained they're the worst by a distance with just 166 all season at an average of 11.1 per game & they've scored 20 points or more just twice, that is not good news against this 49ers defense that lead the league in points given up a game at just 13.5 & only let in their first rushing touchdown of the year last week. The 49ers have the best run defense statistically & that's unfortunate for Rams running back Steven Jackson as usually so much of their game depends on him, they may also be without quarterback Sam Bradford who wasn't involved last week & may well be rested again here. So we've identified that the Rams aren't going to contribute too many points in this one, maybe a couple of field goals if they're lucky so we should back total Rams points to be under 13 at 5/6 with Betfred.

The 49ers aren't exactly offesive powerhouses themselves, instead relying on their ace defense led by top defensive end Justin Smith, they often settle for field goals & luckily have one of the league's best kickers in David Ackers. They should be able to score against the Rams as St.Louis are jsut average on defense but it's unlikely to be too high scoring for the 49ers either who may well bench their starters if they get a two touchdown lead. The total points line is set at 35.5 & as we can't seeSt. Louis contributing much at all backing under total points of 35.5 is the way to go.

(Happy - the Pathers' quarterback Cam Newton, he can be after this one too)

In a game that only has significance to the playoff picture if the 49ers have an unlikely loss in our first game the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers in the Superdome where the home side Saints have won all of their games so far. It's an interesting one as the Saints have been talking about resting their superstar quarterback Drew Brees (as they think it's so likely the 49ers will win their game), we don't think that's too likely as the man who's just broken the long held season passing yards record won't want to give that up a week later by not playing & allowing the Patriots' Tom Brady to surpass him. It is however a consideration & when takien into account with the Panthers big upswing in form where they've won 4 of their last 5 after having won just twice in the first 10 games it means that the Saints probably shouldn't be quite such hot favourites. Carolina's rookie quarterback has records of his own with most passing yards by a rookie & the most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in a single season, he's huge, quick & accurate & looks to have all the makings of a genuine star for the NFL for the next decade, if only his defense weren't giving up 25.6 yards a game they could have competed this year. Cam will want to show what he can do against New Orleans who are ranked 30th against the pass & this could be a shootout, we don't want to back over points as it is sett at a very high 54 but instead are going with a value pick of the Panthers to win at odds of 11/4.

(3rd most receiving yards in the league - the Giants' Victor Cruz)

The biggest game this week is the last one on the card & is between two of the glamour sides with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the New York Giants in a one game decider for the NFC East division & who gets to progress to the playoffs. The sides met just 3 weeks ago with the Giants eventually coming out victorious at Cowboys Stadium in a 37-34 win & the Giants are also coming off a nice win last week against city rivals the New York Jets whilst the Cowboys took a beating from the now eliminated form the playoffs Philadelphia Eagles. So clearly New York have the current momentum but overall even though both sides have 8-7 winning records the Giants have better overall form as the Cowboys have only beaten one side that currently hold a winning record against the 49ers back in week 2. The Giants meanwhile were looking like a very good side as they lost just twice in their first 8 before losing 4 consecutive games against some of the best sides around in the 49ers, Eagles, Saints & Packers, they've rallied again winning 3 of their last 4.

The Cowboys need DeMarcus Ware to have a great game & get to Eli Manning in the backfield if they are going to stop the Giants big passing game but that won't be easy against the Giants good pass protection that have only allowed 26 sacks this year, Dallas managed none last time they played the Giants. Manning should also have his full set of receivers to pass to & they are all very good with Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham both shrugging off minor injuries to back up breakout star Victor Cruz & cause Dallas problems in both the deep & sort threat. Manning has had to throw the ball an awful lot as his rush offense is ranked the league's worst with just 88.1 yards on the ground per game, they could really do with Brandon Jacobs using his size to wear down the Cowboys offensive line. In the backfield on defense the Giants are pretty, pretty, pretty bad & they've given up 58 plays of 20 yards or more which is a worry against the flashy Cowboys offense led by quarterback Tony Romo.

(Laurent Robinson can at least get himself a touchdown even though the Cowboys look likely to exit the playoff picture)

Romo is a good quarterback but is regarded as somewhat of a 'choker' when the pressure's on & Cowboys fans won't have been happy to see the pictures last week where he had to benched after injuring his hand whilst hitting an Eagles player's helmet when passing, that hand is supposed to still be swollen & the Giants will come after it. One of Romo's favourite targets Miles Austin has had a quietish season but Jason Witten & Dez Bryant have continued to be reliable & Laurent Robinson has really stepped up, we rate him the most likely scorer aginst the Giants who let in a lot of passing touchdowns & the 13/8 on offer with Coral for Robinson to score at anytime is like buying money. Overall though we have to side with the home team who have the psychological advantage of beating Dallas in a close overtime game just 3 weeks ago & have a superior passing game, backing the Giants with -3 points on the handicap at 10/11 means if they do win by just a field goal you'll get your stake returned, they can win by more than that to make it a very happy New Year.

Selections:
St. Louis Rams to score less than 13 points at 5/6 (Betfred) v San Francisco 49ers
Total points to be under 35.5 in 49ers v Rams game at 10/11 (general)
Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans Saints at 11/4 (general)
New York Giants to beat Dallas Cowboys with -3 points at 10/11 (general)
Laurent Robinson to score anytime at 13/8 (Coral) in Cowboys v Giants game