NFL Week 13 - Cardinals & Jets won't get up to speed

We're right at the business end of the regular season now with wins being enough to clinch divisions & playoff places whilst losses could mean the end of competitive football for some teams for another season. We're looking at two games as we look for more profit in the NFL season before the playoffs get underway.

With the apparent murder-suicide by Kansas City linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/01/sports/football/01reuters-nfl-chiefs-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss it throws the Panthers @ Chiefs game into doubt & means our selections are irrelevant.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs

More mediocrity! As we look at a game with two teams with just 4 wins from 22 games this season between them! The 3&8 Panthers are travelling to the 1&10 league worst Kansas City Chiefs in a game where both sides are striving to add a semblance of respectability to their season.

(Brandon LaFell is a dangerous deep threat for the Panthers)

The Panthers have had a pretty tough schedule & looking back at the teams they've lost to you'd probably only say that the loss in week 5 when at home to the poor travelling Seahawks was a bad one, they took red hot Tampa Bay to overtime two weeks ago & then beat down the Eagles (like most sides do at the moment) last week with star player Cam Newton starting to get his confidence back. Carolina have started to look better in recent weeks & have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 & even though winning only 2 they went down by just a single point to a strong Chicago Bears side in that sequence too.

The Chiefs have only scored 20+ points three times all season & rank stone last in points gained per game with just 14.6 & have fared pretty badly in points given up at 27.4 per game to rank 28th in the NFL. Atrocious quarterback play has been the Chiefs' downfall with Matt Cassel & (Not Tom) Brady Quinn combining for a grand total of 6 touchdowns between them & 16 interceptions thrown - it looks like Mr Quinn is getting the start here. Jamaal Charles has been great at tailback after returning from injury  in the last 3 weeks has run for 100, 87 & 107 yards but it just isn't enough to cover for the quarterback play that has meant they've had 21 more turnovers than their opponents over the season. They've been decent on pass defense & we've a lot of love for their cornerback Brandon Flowers but their rush defense hasn't been up to scratch & they'll struggle to stop Cam Newton taking off when he scrambles.

Carolina still need their running backs Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams to step up & help Cam Newton if they're going to become a more complete offensive unit but regardless they will have enough to trounce the Chiefs here & can easily beat them by more than the 3 points required on the point spread.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets

The Cardinals haven't won a game since week 4 meaning they're on a 7 game losing streak whilst the Jets have cobbled together an identical 4&7 record but with their wins more sporadic - they have at times looked laughable & some of their play last week against the Patriots was simply appalling.

(Not Mark Sanchez's finest moment on the football field)

New York would have been particularly upset last week with the way the team simply went awol during the 2nd quarter & gave up 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady & New England, the Jets don't have enough weapons on offense to allow teams easy points. Mark Sanchez continues to be one of the least convincing starting quarterbacks in the league & he's thrown just 12 touchdowns on the year as the Jets rank 28th in passing yards. The Jets have in recent years prided themselves on their stout defense which has helped cover up their offensive flaws but this year they're giving up an average of 26.4 points a game to rank 26th & they've been awful against the run ranking 30th with over 140 yards per game against them. Season ending injuries to key players haven't helped the Jets, especially to awesome cornerback Darrelle Revis & the hugely talented, although troublesome, wide receiver Santonio Holmes - they were the team's best players by far on pass defense & offense respectively & their loss has been acute.

The Cardinals started off the season brightly with good defense & doing just about enough on offense but injuries to their quarterbacks & general poor play from them has blighted their season & their lack of passing threat has also made it difficult to run the ball either with them ranking 30th in rushing yards. Rookie passer Ryan Lindley looks like he'll start his 2nd game this Sunday even after throwing 4 interceptions & no touchdowns against the Rams last week, Kevin Kolb is still unfit & the season's starting QB John Skelton is now completely out of favour & rightly so. Their running backs haven't stepped up to help the passers either although injury has again affected them with Beanie Wells & Ryan Williams both having prolonged periods out, LaRod Stephens-Howling has had most of the carries but only has 3.4 yards per attempt whilst they've seemed reluctant to use 1st year back William Powell even though he's done well when seen. Beanie Wells made his return last week & that could help them out a bit, they need their running game to get going against this defense that is poor at run blocking especially with their best receiver Andre Roberts struggling with injury.

This is an uninspiring game between two struggling sides but the Jets do have a semblance of hope with their remaining 5 games (including this one) against mediocre teams & although it would be close to a miracle they could still, just about, make the playoffs - we don't think they will though! With poor offenses but decent pass defenses this looks set to be a low scoring affair & the points total is at just 37 points, we think it'll go below even that though with the 31st & 22nd highest scorers squaring off.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Texans continue to roll & have now got a record of 10 wins & one loss & even though their last two victories have come with overtime wins they face much more accommodating opponents in the Tennessee Titans this week.

(Andre Johnson is starting to become a dominant receiver again for the Texans)

We won't spend long previewing this one: we think the Texans are the best side in the league & are delighted our antepost bets sit with them to win the Super Bowl, their offense has begun to really fire in the past couple of weeks & they come up against the Titans defense that are giving up an average of 30.5 points per game - this could be a bloodbath! 9 of Houston's 10 victories have come by 6 points or more which is the handicap line in this one, back the Texans to rout Tennessee (as they did earlier in the season 38-14) with a -6 point handicap & confirm their playoff place.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets to be under 37 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Tennessee Titans with -6 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

Monday Night Football - Points hard to find in the Arizona Desert

We're concentrating on the NFL this Monday night as we can't get any consensus between contributors on the Sheffield United vs Portsmouth game from League One! The San Francisco 49ers are visiting the Arizona Cardinals in the desert & it looks an intriguing game between the NFC West rivals.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Arizona started the season out blazing a trail with 4 wins in a row including an impressive victory against the fancied New England Patriots at Foxborough but that good start has come grinding to a halt with three losses in a row to some of the league's lesser lights although all have been by a touchdown score or less. The 49ers have been trading at low prices for the Super Bowl after reaching the NFC championship game last season & have at times looked dominant but sometimes struggled when unable to establish their running game & have scored just 16 points over the last two weeks.

(Aldon Smith Sacking John Skelton could be something we see a lot of in this one)

San Francisco certainly have no problems on defense where they rank first overall in yards given up & have been especially difficult to pass against this year ranking first again & averaging just 272 yards against them in the air. The 49ers also remain tough to run against even though their giving up 20 more yards a game running than in 2011 when they led the league, their also the best team at running the football themselves with Frank Gore having a tremendous year up at 5.8 yards a carry for 601 yards total  he's backed up well by Kendall Hunter. The only problem the 49ers have is when it comes to passing where they rank 29th (of 32) in the league with just 199.9 yards a game, Alex Smith has actually done ok with a decent passer rating & completion stats but he's been sacked way too much (18) for a quarterback who doesn't make many attempts per game (27.1).

The Cardinals have also allowed their passers to get hit way too much with Kevin Kolb sacked a league high 27 times even though he didn't start in week one & is now out injured not playing last week either. John Skelton got sacked 7 times last week against the Vikings & it seems difficult to see how they are suddenly going to improve here against a physically dominant 49er front line who although only have 11 sacks in the year so far do manage to get great pressure on the passer & Aldon Smith in particular could have a field day. The Cards are without their leading rusher Ryan Williams & it will be most likely left up to La-Rod Stephens-Howling to step up & make the carries but this will be the toughest defense he's faced this year & he's only been getting 3 yards a carry anyway. Skelton is a mediocre quarterback anyway & with pressure in his face he's unlikely to find star receivers Andre Roberts & Larry Fitzgerald who represent Arizona's bets chance of success, it looks outright impossible for them to get the scores they need to compete here. On the plus side the Cards do have a good defense, ranking 7th overall, & the most points they've conceded in a game is just 21 (twice) so they shouldn't necessarily take a beating. Only one Arizona game has gone over 38 points & just two San Francisco games so take the under 38.5 total points on offer at 10/11 & enjoy the defensive battle.

Selections:
Under 38.5 points in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game at 10/11 (Various)

Cardinals & Rams in a Defensive Dance-Off

It's been a very nice week for us so far with 3 winners from 3 selections at odds of 11/4, Evens & 3/1 so we'll try to keep it going with a selection from Thursday night's NFL game. Now is the time to take advantage of perceptions & prices based on the limited knowledge gained from relatively few games into the season, take note of which sides have played  stronger teams & get one up on the punters who simply look at the last couple of results a team has regardless of who they were playing!

Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams

The NFL game today comes from the much maligned NFC West, but although the teams in the division, apart from the 49ers, were expected to struggle they've all come out & put up some decent performances & gained results especially the Arizona Cardinals who remain one of three unbeaten sides in the league. Here the Cardinals travel to St Louis to take on the Rams who finished with a woeful 2&14 record last year but they've already equalled last year's win record by triumphing against the Redskins & divisional rivals the Seattle Seahawks.

(Danny Amendola has stepped up big time for the St Louis Rams)

The Rams look to have a little more about them now & have a big advantage with this being a home game as the Cardinals will barely have time to get a practice in between their Sunday game & now with the travel to St Louis. Steven Jackson would normally be the Rams' go to guy but he's been struggling a little with a groin problem & has only gained 3.3 yards per rush attempt so they've used rookie Daryl Richardson plenty of times too & he's made a nice start to his career with 5.0 yards per attempt. St Louis's real offensive star this year though is wide receiver Danny Amendola who has gone wild this year with 351 yards & 31 catches already to put him 21 receptions clear of the next Rams player. They've also looked pretty solid defensively & have already come up with 8 interceptions which should help against the Cardinals' lethargic offense that has only racked up an average of 271 yards per game, although that is in part thanks to them regularly gaining excellent starting field position & not having to go so far to the end zone. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan seems to be enjoying himself after moving from the Titans & he's accounted for 3 of those interceptions, he's also not afraid to get in opposition players faces when needed.

The Cardinals are where they are, with an excellent 4&0 start thanks to a great defense & great special teams including the indomitable Patrick Peterson who's been great on defense & kick returns this year. Inside linebacker Daryl Washington has stepped up from his first two promising seasons  is now getting through opposition offensive lines with regularity & has already picked up 34 tackles in jut 4 games plus 3 sacks. he offense of the Cards just can't be shouted about too much, ranking jut 31st of 32 in the league in terms of yards gained & the rush has been pretty poor indeed with Beanie Wells dropping off after a 1,000 yard rushing season last year - he's now gaining an average of just 2.6 yards per attempt & new first choice Ryan Williams isn't doing much better. Quarterback Kevin Kolb has come in after John Skelton got injured & was being very efficient for his first couple of games, if not getting many yards, then against Miami he threw his first two interceptions of the season bu also gained 324 yards as they came from behind, that game probably forced the Cardinals' hand a little but he just about managed it whilst still giving cause for concern. 

It's a pretty tough game to pick a winner from as neither side are great offensively & the Cardinals have momentum but the Rams have the home advantage in a short week, instead we think a bet of this being a low scoring game & going under 38.5 points is a prudent selection. The Rams' last two games have totaled 29 & 32 points whilst the Cardinals' have only had one game go over the line which was last week's overtime win against Miami.

Selections:

Under 38.5 points in Arizona Cardinals v St Louis Rams game at 10/11

NFL Week 4 - Patriots can Bounce Back against Buffalo Bills

We're now into week 4 of the NFL & there are only three teams left with unbeaten records, we're taking a look at one of those unbeaten sides in the Arizona Cardinals plus two other games as we look for more winning bets.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

In our first game we see two teams with mirror records as the Patriots won their first game before failing in their next two whilst AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills lost their opener before winning twice afterwards, we think they'll end up with identical 2&2 records after this one as the Patriots look to keep up their dominance of the Bills having won 16 of the last 17 games.



(Wes Welker remains the Patriots' top receiver - whatever the reports say)

 

The Bills' success this year has so far come down, pretty much, to the play of running back C.J. Spiller after stepping in for Fred Jackson after injury - he's gained 308 yards & 3 touchdowns as well as another 114 yards receiveing & another TD. Spiller is listed as questionable for this one though & Fred Jackson the same, the Bills were suggesting both could end up playing but it looks like neither will be at full fitness & that could prove costly. The Patriots are also a huge step up in opposition after facing the Chiefs & Browns & shouldn't be so easy to bully, the Bills were handed their asses in week one v the Jets & New England are a substantially better team than them. This should be a much easier assignment for the Patriots after travelling to the Ravens & nearly prevailing & previously running into 2012 surprise team the Arizona Cardinals.

New England have been much more balanced on offense this year, being happy to run the ball with Stevan Ridley & Danny Woodhead but their strength still lies in Tom Brady's passing & we think a monster game could be around the corner. There's been a lot of talk about how Wes Welker may be being phased out a little of the passing game & although Brandon Lloyd has had 6 more receptions Welker still leads the team with 251 receiving yards. Along with Lloyd & Gronkowski plus the emerging Julian Edelman, Welker offers Tom Brady some outstanding passing targets - Welker led the league in receiving yards last year & gained 9 TDs so 10/1 for him to score the first one in this game looks too big to be ignored. New England could win this one by some margin if they get in a rhythm & look to be being underestimated by the bookies after two losses against good sides, take the Patriots on the handicap with them giving up just 3.5 points to the Bills here.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Last week the San Diego Chargers were just awful against the Atlanta Falcons on both sides of the ball but there's good reason to believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be a better matchup at least for their offense here at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have already given up 99 points this season from their three games & they just haven't done well enough in terms of putting pressure on the opposition quarterback with just 5 sacks (4 from Justin Houston) & one interception, add to that they've gained just one fumble recovery & they just aren't winning the ball back often enough. Philip Rivers looked to be flustered when under pressure against Atlanta but should be better this week & the Chargers first choice running back Ryan Mathews should improve for his seasonal debut last week, offering them more offensive options.

(Ryan Mathews returning is a boost to San Diego's rushing attack..... as long as he doesn't fumble)

 

The Chiefs actually have the top ranked offense in terms of yards gained thanks to their excellent running game where they have a lot of strength in depth with Jamaal Charles already having racked up 323 yards & Shaun Draughn & Peyton Hillis behind him with 107 & 93 yards respectively. Quarterback Matt Cassel has been serviceable but has thrown 4 interceptions to only 3 TDs but he knows his job is to manage the football whilst the rushers play so well - Dwayne Bowe & Dexter McCluster remain his only targets of note. On the San Diego side they seem to have a lot of depth at receiver without any real standout player other than Malcolm Floyd who is their only player to reach double figure receptions, that does make it tough for opposition defenses as they can't just lock down one player to stop them.

The Chargers will be looking to bounce right back after only scoring 3 points last week so expect to see them come out & throw the ball, Kansas have given up 40, 34 & 24 points in their 3 games so San Diego should get some points on the board. The Chiefs' rushing game may also not be so effective here as the Chargers rank 4th on defense in that category & due to the favourable matchups we think San Diego should just about prevail so backing them to win by 1-6 points at 7/2 looks the best bet.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have been undeniably the biggest surprise team in the NFL this year having picked up three wins for a perfect start & gaining them against some good sides in the Patriots, Eagles & tough Seahawks - those first two games were close but they absolutely blew Philadelphia out of the water last Sunday & will look to do the same against Miami here.

(Kevin Kolb has the chance to lead the Cardinals to an unlikely 4&0 start to the season)

 

Miami have had a pretty tough start, playing three defensively sound teams, only winning against the Oakland Raiders in week two, they'll be disappointed with last week's result as they went down to divisional rivals the New York Jets in overtime & it could be hard to pick themselves up from that. We don't rate the Jets at all so Miami's loss last week doesn't give us confidence that they hold any hope in this one. The Cardinals' quarterback Kevin Kolb really just needs to manage games whilst his defense plays so outstandingly, he has an excellent receiver in Larry Fitzgerald & that combination could work well in this one. The Cardinals' first round draft pick Michael Floyd also saw his first reception (it went for a TD) last week & offers more options & they may just air it out a little more this week with Andre Roberts also proving a dependable target. The Cards also have excellent special teams & Patrick Peterson continues to dazzle when returning kicks, they'll regularly gain great field position making it much simpler for them to score.

The Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Tannehill & running back Reggie Bush have both surprised people with higher levels of performance than expected but they are both some way off elite & could both be shut down by the Arizona defense. Miami are pretty sound defensively but they'll need to be as the offense won't score too many points for them here, we can see Arizona gaining a lead & slowly crushing the life out of the Dolphins here,the offer of 8/11 for the Cardinals to be winning at half time & full time looks a great bet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills with a -3.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Paddy Power)
San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs by 1-6 points at 7/2 (General)
Arizona Cardinals HT/FT v Miami Dolphins at 8/11 (Ladbrokes & William Hill)

NFL Week 3 - Top Notch Texans can reach Mile High Pinnacle

We've been waiting to see our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans as a main game on TV & we get it this Sunday when they take on Denver, we've got that game covered plus an under points bet from another as we look to ramp it up in the 3rd week of NFL action. It was disappointing to see the Carolina Panthers so readily outpointed on Thursday night after we tipped them up before a major plunge on them throughout the day as the news of the Giants' injury problems filtered through, the Panthers rather froze under the big lights of national TV & look like to be a highly inconsistent lot.

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

We're big fans of the Texans here at Like Buying Money & were keen on their chances last year when they started the season at 25/1 for the Super Bowl, this year they were 12/1 & shorter but they've already contracted to odds of just 7/1 & are vying for favouritism with the San Francisco 49ers. They take on Peyton Manning & the Denver Broncos at altitude this Sunday & it's certainly a tougher challenge than their first two games but there's good reason to think they'll prevail up at the Mile High Stadium.

(Brian Cushing (56) & J.J. Watt (99) are two of the NFL's best young defenders)

It's easy to see why the rest of the world are becoming so sweet on the Texans as they are maybe the best balanced team in the league with a vastly improved defense, partly thanks to the great work of co-ordinator Wade Phillips & also some great young talent. On the offensive side of the ball Houston have arguably the best running back & wide receiver in the NFL in the form of Arian Foster & Andre Johnson respectively plus a solid offensive line that protect dependable passer Matt Schaub very nicely indeed. This season the Texans have allowed the fewest passing yards & points in the league (just 17) & taken 3 interceptions, forced 2 fumbles & sacked the opposition quarterback 6 times. Defensive end J.J. Watt has been exceptional so far with 3 sacks already & some reckon he's playing as well as any football player on either side of the ball right now. Peyton Manning had one of his wobbliest ever performances last week when throwing 4 picks against the Falcons last week & this is a much tougher defensive unit, he's proven to be strong mentally but he still has to prove he's back to full physical strength after a year out.

The Broncos are a talented team themselves especially defensively & we especially like Von Miller & Elvis Dumervil whom have laser tracking on opposition quarterbacks as they look to get sacks & put pressure on at all times. On the offensive side of the ball they have some decent receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker & tight end Jacob Tamme but no real star & we're still not wholly convinced veteran running back Willis McGahee can be depended on week in week out. Manning could struggle to pass the ball again this week against Houston's talented defense & an awful lot will fall on McGahee's shoulders, unfortunately their running game just can't match up to the awesome dual threat of the Texans' Foster & Tate combo. The Texans can move the ball on the ground & in the air & that makes them difficult to stop, they have little problem pounding it in down near the goal line & that means they'll get touchdowns where other teams may have to settle for field goals. With the Broncos having played on Monday night & having had a little less rest the Texans are an outstanding price to win at odds of 5/6 with William Hill even though they are on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

There is a really interesting matchup out in the desert as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to face the Arizona Cardinals who shocked the Patriots in Foxborough last week, adding spice to the game is the fact that ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb will be starting at quarterback for the Cards.

(Defensive back & kick return specialist Patrick Peterson is the Cardinal's young star)

The Cardinals have been seen as one of the weaker teams around even though they reached the 2008 Super Bowl but they put in a really nice run in the latter part of last season winning 7 of their last 9 & they've narrowly won both of their games this season thanks in large part to a defense that doesn't give up too many points, tending to restrict opponents to field goals - they've restricted their opponents to two touchdowns or less in their last 11 games. We can't say we're too keen on Arizona's offense which ranks 28th & 30th in rushing & passing respectively & their running has been awful in yards per carry with Beanie Wells gaining 2.8 yards per attempt & Ryan Williams just 1.2, that should just mean they stay even more determined to keep this tight & low scoring. The Eagles are pretty good defensively too & can slow teams down & generate turnovers, their road games also tend to be pretty low scoring with only one of their last 6 away games going over today's betting points total. Totesport are going 43.5 for the total points & that looks big as other firms are going 42, this could be a really tense affair & with Michael Vick still not firing at QB for the Eagles this may be the lowest points total this week.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Denver Broncos at 5/6 (William Hill)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals to go under 43.5 total points at 10/11 (Totesport)

NFL Week 16 - Christmas can come early for strong home teams

It's the 2nd last round of games in the NFL regular season & we've got our preview & best bets for this group of games as usual, we were let down by the Titans last Sunday but the New England Patriots did us proud by taking apart the Broncos & Tim Tebow, that's where we're starting this week with the Christmas Eve games.

 (Big man Vince Wilfork will be coming after the Dolphins on nearly every play)

The Miami Dolphins are hugely improved after losing their first 7 games & in general looking useless at the same time, they've won 5 out of 7 since then but those wins have come agaainst some pretty ordinary outfits including the sliding Buffalo Bills twice, they'll find things a whole lot tougher against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have lost just 3 times this year & have won their last 6 putting up large point totals, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league with an atrocious secondary that they will want to upgrade in the off-season but the offense is doing more than enough to get the job done. 'Mr Perfect' Tom Brady is just about on course to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record & will be looking to put up big numbers against the Dolphins' 25th ranked pass defense, as usual he'll target his tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez as well as top receiver Wes Welker, we'd have thought they'll be putting up over 30 points in this one. The Dolphins have done extremely well in terms of points conceded but did let the Bills score 23 last week & the Eagles 26 the week before, their schedule has been fairly easy all year & although they've improved we've still been unimpressed especially on the offense other than the rejuvenated Reggie Bush at running back. Matt Moore never managed to establish himself at Carolina & they're now showing what they can do on offense with outstanding rookie Cam Newton as passer, he'll struggle to exploit the Patriots poor pass defense, he has an outstanding receiver in Brandon Marshall but very little else of note in the receiving corps. The Dolphins have only scored more than 30 points 3 times this year & for that reason we're happy to take the Patriots with a -9.5 point handicap, that's just a touchdown & a field goal the Patriots need to win by & they're pretty formidable here in Foxborough.

(The No.1 ranked Steelers defense can ensure this is a low scoring encounter)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens over who will be top dog in the AFC North & they'll be pleased to be up against just about the league's worst team in the St. Louis Rams this week as they aim to win out. The key to this game is that Pittsburgh are likely to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger now until the playoffs as he's played large parts of the season with various injuries & the won't want to aggravate his current high ankle sprain any more, that means the Steelers wil likely run the ball much more often than usual & the clock will continue to run meaning less scoring opportunities. 3 of the Steelers last 4 games have had 23 or less points in them, the Rams have had only 2 of their last 7 games go over 40 points as they tend to struggle to put up any points at all & it won't be any easier against the league's best defense. Basically this game looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring of the year & the points line being set at 37.5 is too high & under should be backed.

 (Cedric Benson can gain some yards on the ground for the Bengals)

Finally the Arizona Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bengals & their dream rookie receiver/quarterback partnership of A.J. Green & Andy Dalton but even though the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 they won't have it their own way here in Ohio. 4 of those wins for the Cardinals were at home & one was against the dreadful Rams & the other came against the underperforming Eagles, they are pretty solid defensively but haven't scored more than 28 points all season & that was in the 1st game. The Bengals aren't particularly high scorers either but have done the business in every game they'd have been expected to leading to them holding an 8 & 6 record even though they are in a division with the Steelers & Ravens. The Bengals are also good at defending the run & that's where the Cardinals' offensive strength lies with Beanie Wells tending to rush hard & often, if the Bengals can take that away then there's little to worry about with their QB Skelton even though he has Larry 'Inspector Gadget Arms' Fitzgerald to pass to. At home the advantage definitely lies with the Bengals & they can win this at reasonable odds of 1/2 with Skybet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -9.5 points at 10/11 (general)
St.Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers to be under 37.5 Total Points at 10/11 (general)
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Arizona Cardinals at 1/2 (Skybet)

NFL Week 14 - Under under under points Ho!

We're into week 14 of the season & there are just 4 games left in the regular season before the playoffs begin & we start suffering from the symptoms of Super Bowl fever with real ferocity, there's still plenty of football to be played though & we've got near enough a full season of form & stats to help inform our betting now. We've had a decent season so far & Houston are still rumbling along even without a quarterback carrying our 25/1 pre-season bet, our best bets for this week are below. As ever get in on the conversation by leaving comments or following us on Twitter, it's rather fun & the more people that take part the better, you can find us at @likebuyingmoney & it'll help you keep up to date with our latest posts.

 (It's all about rookie defenders wearing no.99 this week - first up is the 49ers excellent Aldon Smith)

We're starting off with a team that has lost just twice this season in the San Francisco 49ers who travel to face the Arizona Cardinals in the desert, the Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 but we still think that the Super Bowl finalists from 2009 are a bit rubbish & the 49ers deserve to be strong favourites here. Arizona's recent upturn in form has come by beating the notorious for being poor in December Cowboys last week, a team in freefall & without their 1st choice quarterback the Philadelphia Eagles & the very bad indeed St Louis Rams who have just two wins all season. In between those wins they took a 23-7 beating from this game's opponents the 49ers, they got a measly 229 offensive yards in that game against the league's best defense in terms of points given up & it shouldn't get much better for them offense in this one.

San Francisco seem to be taking real pleasure in shutting down the opposition especially on the ground, they've conceded 200 less rushing yards than any other team in the league. The linebackers deserve a lot of credit for how well the 49ers have played & are surely the best set in the league, inside linebackers NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis (questionable for this one) rank 5th & 15th in the league in terms of tackles made & rookie Aldon Smith has just 23 tackles but 9.5 sacks as he's been allowed to use his speed & power to hunt down quarterbacks to rank 8th in the league in sacks made. On offense Alex Smith has really stepped up & is looking after the ball well with just 5 interceptions thrown, he's also been using his feet well running 38 times & averaging 3.8 yards a try, it suggests he's making better decisions when under pressure rather than throing the ball up there for potential picks. The offensive line have still allowed Smith to be sacked 34 times which is way too much but they are built to help the running game & have done that well with Frank Gore continuing to monster teams at times whilst being backed up ably by the rookie Kendall Hunter who looks value at 16/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The passing game revolves around Smith finding Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree & they both have 48 receptions a piece, he should find them often enough along with the running game continuing to be productive to win here against the Cardinals & the  best value looks to be backing the 49ers to be winning at half time & full time at Evens. The total points line also looks to have been set a bit too high at 38.5, for Arizona 4 of their last 5 have been under 39 points & 5 out of 6 for the 49ers including last week when they shut out the Rams, the Cardinals will also struggle to put points on the board here, Chris Wells running game has been key to their recent improvement but he won't have any joy & under 38.5 points should be backed with confidence.

(Blocking passes, rushing the passer, hitting the passer, scaring the passer - ladies & gentleman we present to you, all the way from Texas - Mr J.J. Watts)

Another game we like the look of under points in is the Houston Texans trip to Cincinnati to face the Bengals even though the line is again at 38.5 & the Bengals have only been involved in one game with under 40 points! We like the unders bet here due to the Texans outstanding defense that rank 2nd in yards given up & points allowed, they have 3rd choice quarterback T.J. Yates starting & will again look to their excellent running game with the brilliant Arian Foster leading the charge & Ben Tate getting plenty of carries too. Because Houston will employ the rush so often they'll run the clock down & that means less time to score points. The Bengals will be looking to bounce back from a humiliating 35-7 loss to the Steelers where they were really put in their place, it won't be straight forward for their outstanding rookie quarterback-receiver partnership of Andy Dalton & A.J. Green to bounce right back from that especially as Houston will hound Dalton play after play after play. The Texans rank 2nd in number of sacks gained & although the Bengals O-Line is good at protection ranking 4th in the league in sacks allowed (behind Houston who lie 3rd in that category), we still think they'll get to Dalton, Reed & barwin have the most sacks on the team but we've been hugely impressed with rookie defensive end J.J. Watt in recent weeks & he can impose himself again. We think the Texans might sneak a win again but we're happier to tip up the under 38.5 points at 10/11 here.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to be winning at half time & full time v Arizona Cardinals at Evens (general)
Under 38.5 points in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game at 10/11 (general)
Kendall Hunter to score 1st Touchdown at 16/1 (Boylesports & Skybet) in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game
Under 38.5 points in Houston Texans v Cincinnati Bengals game at 10/11 (general)

Take the double on under points in both games above to pay odds just over 5/2

NFL Week 12 - Falcons to swoop on Vikings

We're really on the run in to the playoffs now with half of the divisions still wide open whilst four top place spots are either in or virtually in the bag, there are also the wild card playoff places to fight for & it means that virtually every game has a bearing on the championship picture. As always we're looking for the best value available in the week's games, we look at a wide range of markets to see where the bookmakers have got it wrong allowing us & you to exploit to make a tidy profit.

 (Evergreen Tony Gonzalez can celebrate another touchdown for Atlanta on their way to a clear victory over Minnesota)

The Atlanta Falcons are in a battle with New Orleans to secure 1st place in the NFC South & will be wanting to press their claims when they host the Minnesota Vikings who are floundering in the tough NFC North with just two wins all season & that was against poor sides in Arizona & Carolina. At the Georgia Dome the Falcons are a pretty scary team to face, they have lost twice at home this year but that was hosting Green Bay & New Orleans, they've only conceded over 20 points in one of their last five games after some slightly suspect defensive displays early on in the season, that improvement spells trouble for a Vikings side that rank 23rd in points scored. The Vikings will do well to get anything going offensively as their star player running back Adrian Peterson looks to be doubtful for the game & their passing game only ranks 28th in yards gained. Defensively Minnesota are very average & they don't tend to create many turnover opportunities, the Falcons have a great balanced offense & will look to take advantage with Michael Turner in the running game & by passing to Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez. Tight end Gonzalez is now 35 but is playing outstanding football as he has been since 1997, he's Matt Ryan's favourite target in the end zone & the Vikings give up more passing than rushing touchdowns, with 7 touchdowns already Gonzalez looks ace value to score the 1st touchdown at 7/1. With Peterson out it really is difficult to see how Minnesota can hurt the home side & Atlanta can cover the -8.5 point handicap on offer at Boylesports with ease.

For our second bet we're going to keep things exceedingly simple, the St. Louis Rams have scored a league worst 12 points per game & opponents the Arizona Cardinals just 19 a game (24th best), neither side is too bad defensively & this looks sure to be a very low scoring game, the under 39.5 total points should be taken at odds of 10/11. The sides met in week 9 & there were 32 points total, that included overtime & there's no reason to suggest it will be different here, since then the Cardinals have been in games with 38 & 30 points & St. Louis in games with 25 & 31, neither side have a chance of getting to the playoffs & this could & hopefully will be a very dull affair.

(Top rookie Ben Tate can sprint into the end zone for the Texans against the Jaguars)

Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans suffered dreadful news after their big win at Tampa Bay with quarterback Matt Schaub ruled out for the season with a foot injury that needs to be operated on. Fortunately the Texans running game has been excellent, unsurprising as they have a total star in Arian Foster & he has been backed up by rookie Ben Tate who has had a very good first season, scoring 3 touchdowns already with two of those coming in the last two games. The Texans have great receivers especially with Andre Johnson coming back to fitness but with backup quarterback Matt Leinart now playing they will want to keep things simple & take the pressure off him by running the ball more, that should mean that Tate is even more involved & Ladbrokes offer a standout 14/1 for Tate to score the 1st touchdown plus 21/10 that he scores at anytime.

Selections:
Atlanta Falcons to beat Minnesota Vikings with -8.5 points (Boylesports)
Tony Gonzalez to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Minnesota Vikings v Atlanta Falcons game
Arizona Cardinals v St. Louis Rams to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Ben Tate to score 1st Touchdown at 14/1 & to score at anytime at 21/10 (Ladbrokes) in Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars game