NFL Week 5 - Super Cam can Slay Seahawks

They say pride come before a fall & we came back down to earth on Saturday with a bump after 4 wins from 4 picks early in the week, our ambitious pick of QPR failed to come off even after they showed a bit of fight vs West brom & Gillingham failed to find a way through after hitting the post early on against Oxford. You can't win them all though (unless you're the Houston Texans!) & we're back with picks from two of Sunday's NFL games as the Seahawks take on the Panthers & the Eagles face off against the Steelers.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Every Carolina game has a little bit of unpredictability as you can never be sure just how effective their star player, quarterback Cam Newton can be & he's got a tough test this week against Seattle's decent defense. Seattle have a slightly better record than Carolina this year with two wins compared to the Panthers' one but that is highly fortunate as one of those victories was the controversial last second win over the Green Bay Packers.

(We're looking for Cam Newton to star in this one against Seattle)

Both of Seattle's victories have come at home & they tend to fare a lot better on their own field in general with only 8 road wins from the 2008 season onwards. Carolina's loss in week one v Tampa was disappointing but their other two losses were no disgrace, getting rather blown away by Super Bowl champs the New York Giants & then pushing form side Atlanta all the way last week. The Panthers' have a pretty ordinary defense but the Seahawks probably aren't the team to exploit it as they rank just 28th in points scored & yards gained per game & they will surely continue to rely heavily on Marshawn Lynch rather than the passing of their somewhat limited rookie Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks have a mean pass rush but that isn't the best way to stop Cam Newton as he isn't a quarterback who wants to stay in the pocket anyway & he could really hurt Seattle by taking off & breaking off some big runs. Newton really is the key here but if he does perform we can see Carolina winning this by a stretch, he's averaging a league high 9.5 yards per completed pass plus has run for plenty of yards & 3 rushing touchdowns already. With Cam being backed up with the running game of DeAngelo Williams the Panthers can cover the -3 point handicap & consign Seattle to another away loss.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This interstate game only comes around once every four years but means that we have a veritable derby game between the Philadephia Eagles & Pittsburgh Steelers of Pennsylvania at the Steelers' home of Heinz Field.

(Eagles fans will hope to see less of this from Michael Vick)

This is maybe the most fascinating contest of the week as the teams rank 5th (Pittsburgh) & 6th (Philadelphia) on defense but both have some weapons on offense too with the Eagles ranking 5th in offensive yards gained & Pittsburgh having one of the most dangerous passing attacks with Ben Roethlisberger having ace receivers to pass to. The Eagles's offensive yard stat doesn't tell the whole story though as although they rank 5th in yards they rank in 30th place in points scored as they have turned the ball over too many times & struggled to get touchdowns when in the red zone (38.5% of the time). Michael Vick hasn't protected the ball at all well at times & they've had a league high 6 rushing fumbles. Yet for all their troubles the Eagles have somehow managed to get 3 wins from 4 games by a combined total of just 4 points with incredibly narrow victories over the Browns, Ravens & Giants & the saying goes that good teams win even when playing badly.

(Mike Wallace is out to show Antonio Brown & others he's still the star receiver in Pittsburgh)

The Steelers are coming off a bye week & they'll be hoping to improve after a slow start that has seen them only beat the terrible New York Jets. The bye week came at the right time as they were really struggling with injuries to key players but they all look likely to return in this one, Troy Polamalu & James Harrison are two of the NFL's biggest defensive stars & will really bolster them whilst the return of Rashard Mendenhall at running back could add a much needed running game to complement the passing. At receiver the Steelers have an arsenal of talent with the emerging Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown & Mike Wallace, the team had some issues with Wallace pre-season & he missed some training but he has improved markedly in each game as shown by receiving figures of 37, 74 & 123 yards respectively & a touchdown in each game - he's overpriced at 9/1 to score the first touchdown of the game.

This isn't an easy one to call as we've been unimpressed with the Steelers so far & Philadelphia seem to make too many mistakes to be trusted even though they've somehow gained 3 wins from 4 games so instead we'll take the total points line & the game to go over 43. Only one of Philadelphia's games has gone over that mark so far but they have had the chances to score many more points than they've managed whilst we've seen 50 & 65 points in two of Pittsburgh's games suggesting this has the potential to be a high scoring affair.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Seattle Seahawks with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Various)
Over 43 total points in Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers at 10/11 (Various)
Mike Wallace to score first touchdown at 9/1 (Paddy Power)

NFL Week 3 - Top Notch Texans can reach Mile High Pinnacle

We've been waiting to see our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans as a main game on TV & we get it this Sunday when they take on Denver, we've got that game covered plus an under points bet from another as we look to ramp it up in the 3rd week of NFL action. It was disappointing to see the Carolina Panthers so readily outpointed on Thursday night after we tipped them up before a major plunge on them throughout the day as the news of the Giants' injury problems filtered through, the Panthers rather froze under the big lights of national TV & look like to be a highly inconsistent lot.

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

We're big fans of the Texans here at Like Buying Money & were keen on their chances last year when they started the season at 25/1 for the Super Bowl, this year they were 12/1 & shorter but they've already contracted to odds of just 7/1 & are vying for favouritism with the San Francisco 49ers. They take on Peyton Manning & the Denver Broncos at altitude this Sunday & it's certainly a tougher challenge than their first two games but there's good reason to think they'll prevail up at the Mile High Stadium.

(Brian Cushing (56) & J.J. Watt (99) are two of the NFL's best young defenders)

It's easy to see why the rest of the world are becoming so sweet on the Texans as they are maybe the best balanced team in the league with a vastly improved defense, partly thanks to the great work of co-ordinator Wade Phillips & also some great young talent. On the offensive side of the ball Houston have arguably the best running back & wide receiver in the NFL in the form of Arian Foster & Andre Johnson respectively plus a solid offensive line that protect dependable passer Matt Schaub very nicely indeed. This season the Texans have allowed the fewest passing yards & points in the league (just 17) & taken 3 interceptions, forced 2 fumbles & sacked the opposition quarterback 6 times. Defensive end J.J. Watt has been exceptional so far with 3 sacks already & some reckon he's playing as well as any football player on either side of the ball right now. Peyton Manning had one of his wobbliest ever performances last week when throwing 4 picks against the Falcons last week & this is a much tougher defensive unit, he's proven to be strong mentally but he still has to prove he's back to full physical strength after a year out.

The Broncos are a talented team themselves especially defensively & we especially like Von Miller & Elvis Dumervil whom have laser tracking on opposition quarterbacks as they look to get sacks & put pressure on at all times. On the offensive side of the ball they have some decent receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker & tight end Jacob Tamme but no real star & we're still not wholly convinced veteran running back Willis McGahee can be depended on week in week out. Manning could struggle to pass the ball again this week against Houston's talented defense & an awful lot will fall on McGahee's shoulders, unfortunately their running game just can't match up to the awesome dual threat of the Texans' Foster & Tate combo. The Texans can move the ball on the ground & in the air & that makes them difficult to stop, they have little problem pounding it in down near the goal line & that means they'll get touchdowns where other teams may have to settle for field goals. With the Broncos having played on Monday night & having had a little less rest the Texans are an outstanding price to win at odds of 5/6 with William Hill even though they are on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

There is a really interesting matchup out in the desert as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to face the Arizona Cardinals who shocked the Patriots in Foxborough last week, adding spice to the game is the fact that ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb will be starting at quarterback for the Cards.

(Defensive back & kick return specialist Patrick Peterson is the Cardinal's young star)

The Cardinals have been seen as one of the weaker teams around even though they reached the 2008 Super Bowl but they put in a really nice run in the latter part of last season winning 7 of their last 9 & they've narrowly won both of their games this season thanks in large part to a defense that doesn't give up too many points, tending to restrict opponents to field goals - they've restricted their opponents to two touchdowns or less in their last 11 games. We can't say we're too keen on Arizona's offense which ranks 28th & 30th in rushing & passing respectively & their running has been awful in yards per carry with Beanie Wells gaining 2.8 yards per attempt & Ryan Williams just 1.2, that should just mean they stay even more determined to keep this tight & low scoring. The Eagles are pretty good defensively too & can slow teams down & generate turnovers, their road games also tend to be pretty low scoring with only one of their last 6 away games going over today's betting points total. Totesport are going 43.5 for the total points & that looks big as other firms are going 42, this could be a really tense affair & with Michael Vick still not firing at QB for the Eagles this may be the lowest points total this week.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Denver Broncos at 5/6 (William Hill)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals to go under 43.5 total points at 10/11 (Totesport)

Ravens at Eagles - Lots of Squawking & not much Scoring

We were disappointed midweek as the Bears v Packers game was a bit of a damp squib with both teams offensive lines seeming to be made of paper - that will be a feature to watch for the rest of the year because if hey can't protect their passers neither side can be considered for the Super Bowl. We're back this weekend with picks from three games including a potential defensive showcase as the Ravens travel to the Eagles & we've some touchdown scorer bets that seem a little overpriced with certain bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

When we started looking at this weekend's games we'd already pinpointed the Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles as potentially the lowest scoring game of the week as two scary defenses come up against each other so we were surprised to see the total points line set at a large 46.5 points. Last year the Eagles had just 6 games go over the 46 points set here & the Ravens had just 4 of their 18 games (inc playoffs) go over, so from 34 games played just 10 went over & it seems amazing the line is so high.

(Coach Andy Reid will look to stop the Ravens' offense - cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be key)

Baltimore got a load of points on the board against Cincinnati on Monday night but the Bengals defense didn't seem to be able to adapt after setting up to stop Ray Rice running & made it too easy for Joe Flacco to use his arm strength & find targets down the field, it will almost certainly not be that easy to do the same against the Eagles. Philadelphia have two ace defensive ends in Trent Cole & Jason Babin who will ensure the pass rush against Flacco is strong & if he does get the ball away their corner backs Nnamdi Asomugha & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are amongst the best around & should give receivers Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin problems. Philadelphia weren't at their best last week with Michael Vick throwing 4 interceptions & they're arguably coming up against the best defense in the league with the Ravens, they won't have to deal with the threat of Terrell Suggs in the pass rush but Baltimore still looked stifling without him.

We can see both teams looking to their star running backs in Ray Rice & LeSean McCoy as they try to avoid turnovers & that should mean that plenty of time runs off the clock, this could end up coming down to a field goal & the under 46.5 points must be backed - the price for this should be closer to 1/2 than 10/11.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints travel up to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Pathers with both teams having suffered losses when favourites to win last week. The Saints were relatively well fancied for a Super Bowl push this year & the 2009 season champions were handed a boost when their players suspended for their part in the 'Bountygate' scandal were cleared to play, Carolina meanwhile were fancied by no one even with their impressive young quarterback Cam Newton.

New Orleans will undoubtedly be disappointed to have lost to the Redskins last week especially as they are usually unbeatable at home but Washington are an outfit on the up with a good defense, an emerging talent at running back in Alfred Morris & an exceptional talent in rookie passer Robert Griffin III. The Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay was more worrying as the Buccaneers lost their last 10 games last year & were rarely even getting close to the opposition yet they limited the Panthers to just two scores (touchdown & field goal) as Carolina went down 16-10. The Panthers are just a bit too one-dimensional as just about everything falls on Cam Newton's shoulders, as well as passing for 4,051 yards last year he also added another 706 on the ground & if he doesn't play well they have little chance.

(Lance Moore should score at some point against a weak Panthers defense)

We feel the Saints are being a little underrated here considering that Drew Brees threw for 346 yards last week & the Panthers ranked just 28th against the pass in 2011, he's got every opportunity to pick them apart here & put huge numbers on the board & taking New Orleans with a -2.5 point handicap looks a very sound bet. A favourite target of Drew Brees' is Lance Moore & he looks a reasonable price at 8/5 to score anytime (8 TDs each of last two years) & 12/1 to score the first touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

We were pleased to see the San Diego Chargers get their season off to a good start with a win away at Oakland, that was a tough fixture & they'll find it considerably easier when they host the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers were certainly helped by some atrocious special teams play from the Raiders but they were pretty resolute defensively & Philip Rivers looked accurate & efficient after a wobbly 2011 season, it helps that he was so well protected & was sacked just once last week.

(Philip Rivers & Antonio Gates can combine to winning effect for the Chargers)

Both of these teams seem to have problems running the ball with the Titans' star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson being wildly inconsistent & again last week he was ridiculously unproductive on the ground with just 4 yards from 11 carries, he does offer a threat in the receiving game though & his ability to break monster runs can't be ignored. The Chargers are really struggling without Ryan Mathews (injury) & he looks set to miss this one again, they only managed 32 rushing yards last week but we feel they have the better quarterback & set of receivers so it shouldn't hurt them so much here. We like the Titans' rookie receiver Kendall Wright but he might need a few more games to be seen to full effect & Nate Washington is capable of making huge plays, they will however struggle until Kenny Britt gets back to fitness, he looks like playing here but could be eased back in. The Chargers will use back Ronnie Brown for plenty of short passes & have an ace tight end in Antonio Gates plus Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal all as dependable receivers.

We think the Chargers' defense will give young quarterback Jake Locker plenty to worry about with Donald Butler coming after him & Eric Weddle waiting in the backfield to mop up any misplaced passes. The Chargers should take advantage of this being a home fixture & overcome a -6.5 point handicap to win by a touchdown or more. Rivers' most likely target when he gets around the end zone is Antonio Gates & the Evens that he gets a touchdown with Skybet looks generous especially as he's 2/9 with Paddy Power!

Selections:
Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles to be under 46.5 points at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints to beat Carolina Panthers with -2.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Lance Moore to score first touchdown at 12/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 8/5 (Bet365) Saints v Panthers
San Diego Chargers to beat Tennessee Titans with a -6.5 point handicap (General)
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (SkyBet)

Thursday Night NFL - Big birds to cancel each other out

Week 13 in the NFL begins this Thursday with a battle between two teams with identical records of 4 wins & 7 losses, both won their respective divisions last year but it now seems virtually impossible either the Philadelphia Eagles or hosts the Seattle Seahawks will make the playoffs this year. Both sides will want to finish the season strongly though to prove they can be contenders next year in order to attract playing talent, the Seahawks can point to having a transitional year after losing 10 year quarterback Matt Hasselbeck & the Eagles look to have many talented individuals but haven't been able to operate well enough, especially on defense, as a team - that could spell trouble for the league's longest serving head coach Andy Reid.

(The Seahawks Tavaris Jackson - he's not very good)

This game looks a really tough one to call as there are so many factors that seem to balance themselves out starting off with where the game is played, Qwest (or now CenturyLink) Field is a tough place to come for opposing teams with a raucous atmosphere whilst opposing offenses are on the field leading to missed snaps & penalties but the Eagles have been struggling at home (1 win, 5 losses) with the crowd getting on their back & might just need this away trip. That atmosphere could play a part with the Eagles having to stay with backup quarterback Vince Young, with noise like this it helps if an offense knows each other very well & although Young has played a decent amount in the side this isn't like a veteran quarterback with a set of offensive linemne that have been together for years - they'll find it difficult to go to a silent count.

On offense the Eagles are great at running the ball, leading the league with 5.6 yards per carry but the Seahawks have been great at stopping the run being only behind the Ravens in yards allowed per run with 3.8, they've played some hot rushing sides in the Rams, Ravens & 49ers so that looks a pretty true stat. The Seahawks meanwhile aren't very good at running or passing with the ball ranking 27th & 25th respectively in yards gained in either offensive aspect. The Eagles haven't been great defensively, their overall yardage given up is respectable but it has to be taken into account that they take a lot of time off of the clock by using their potent running game often, they're giving up 4.3 yards a rush & 7.7 yards a catch so are very ordinary.

(LeSean McCoy has 13 touchdowns already this year for the Eagles)

Looking at the individuals who could win this for their team Philadelphia's running back LeSean McCoy stands out with 1,050 rushing yards already & touchdowns in 10 of their 11 games, he will almost certainly be used in plenty of plays in this one especially without the first choice QB Michael Vick playing, odds of 4/9 to score a touchdown at anytime are great value - if his current form carried on he should be 1/10. The Seahawks have basically a poor quarterback in Tavaris Jackson & so will use their running game as well, Marshawn Lynch has 706 yards on the ground but hasn't been averaging too far with each attempt at just 3.9 yards compared to McCoys 5.6 yards. The Seahawks look to have found a good young receiver in rookie Doug Baldwin who's been a potent deep threat & has as many receiving touchdowns as anyone on the team with just two. Defensively the Eagles look to have players who could make big plays but haven't been doing it this year & the Seattle defense looks solid enough but definitely not spectacular. With both sides likely to run the ball a lot in this one it looks like a lot of time could be coming off the clock with each possession & that points to a low scoring game, the total points are set at 43.5 & betting under that total looks the sensible option.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in the Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks game at 10/11 (various)
LeSean McCoy to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/9 (Boylesports)