Ravens at Eagles - Lots of Squawking & not much Scoring

We were disappointed midweek as the Bears v Packers game was a bit of a damp squib with both teams offensive lines seeming to be made of paper - that will be a feature to watch for the rest of the year because if hey can't protect their passers neither side can be considered for the Super Bowl. We're back this weekend with picks from three games including a potential defensive showcase as the Ravens travel to the Eagles & we've some touchdown scorer bets that seem a little overpriced with certain bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

When we started looking at this weekend's games we'd already pinpointed the Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles as potentially the lowest scoring game of the week as two scary defenses come up against each other so we were surprised to see the total points line set at a large 46.5 points. Last year the Eagles had just 6 games go over the 46 points set here & the Ravens had just 4 of their 18 games (inc playoffs) go over, so from 34 games played just 10 went over & it seems amazing the line is so high.

(Coach Andy Reid will look to stop the Ravens' offense - cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be key)

Baltimore got a load of points on the board against Cincinnati on Monday night but the Bengals defense didn't seem to be able to adapt after setting up to stop Ray Rice running & made it too easy for Joe Flacco to use his arm strength & find targets down the field, it will almost certainly not be that easy to do the same against the Eagles. Philadelphia have two ace defensive ends in Trent Cole & Jason Babin who will ensure the pass rush against Flacco is strong & if he does get the ball away their corner backs Nnamdi Asomugha & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are amongst the best around & should give receivers Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin problems. Philadelphia weren't at their best last week with Michael Vick throwing 4 interceptions & they're arguably coming up against the best defense in the league with the Ravens, they won't have to deal with the threat of Terrell Suggs in the pass rush but Baltimore still looked stifling without him.

We can see both teams looking to their star running backs in Ray Rice & LeSean McCoy as they try to avoid turnovers & that should mean that plenty of time runs off the clock, this could end up coming down to a field goal & the under 46.5 points must be backed - the price for this should be closer to 1/2 than 10/11.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints travel up to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Pathers with both teams having suffered losses when favourites to win last week. The Saints were relatively well fancied for a Super Bowl push this year & the 2009 season champions were handed a boost when their players suspended for their part in the 'Bountygate' scandal were cleared to play, Carolina meanwhile were fancied by no one even with their impressive young quarterback Cam Newton.

New Orleans will undoubtedly be disappointed to have lost to the Redskins last week especially as they are usually unbeatable at home but Washington are an outfit on the up with a good defense, an emerging talent at running back in Alfred Morris & an exceptional talent in rookie passer Robert Griffin III. The Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay was more worrying as the Buccaneers lost their last 10 games last year & were rarely even getting close to the opposition yet they limited the Panthers to just two scores (touchdown & field goal) as Carolina went down 16-10. The Panthers are just a bit too one-dimensional as just about everything falls on Cam Newton's shoulders, as well as passing for 4,051 yards last year he also added another 706 on the ground & if he doesn't play well they have little chance.

(Lance Moore should score at some point against a weak Panthers defense)

We feel the Saints are being a little underrated here considering that Drew Brees threw for 346 yards last week & the Panthers ranked just 28th against the pass in 2011, he's got every opportunity to pick them apart here & put huge numbers on the board & taking New Orleans with a -2.5 point handicap looks a very sound bet. A favourite target of Drew Brees' is Lance Moore & he looks a reasonable price at 8/5 to score anytime (8 TDs each of last two years) & 12/1 to score the first touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

We were pleased to see the San Diego Chargers get their season off to a good start with a win away at Oakland, that was a tough fixture & they'll find it considerably easier when they host the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers were certainly helped by some atrocious special teams play from the Raiders but they were pretty resolute defensively & Philip Rivers looked accurate & efficient after a wobbly 2011 season, it helps that he was so well protected & was sacked just once last week.

(Philip Rivers & Antonio Gates can combine to winning effect for the Chargers)

Both of these teams seem to have problems running the ball with the Titans' star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson being wildly inconsistent & again last week he was ridiculously unproductive on the ground with just 4 yards from 11 carries, he does offer a threat in the receiving game though & his ability to break monster runs can't be ignored. The Chargers are really struggling without Ryan Mathews (injury) & he looks set to miss this one again, they only managed 32 rushing yards last week but we feel they have the better quarterback & set of receivers so it shouldn't hurt them so much here. We like the Titans' rookie receiver Kendall Wright but he might need a few more games to be seen to full effect & Nate Washington is capable of making huge plays, they will however struggle until Kenny Britt gets back to fitness, he looks like playing here but could be eased back in. The Chargers will use back Ronnie Brown for plenty of short passes & have an ace tight end in Antonio Gates plus Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal all as dependable receivers.

We think the Chargers' defense will give young quarterback Jake Locker plenty to worry about with Donald Butler coming after him & Eric Weddle waiting in the backfield to mop up any misplaced passes. The Chargers should take advantage of this being a home fixture & overcome a -6.5 point handicap to win by a touchdown or more. Rivers' most likely target when he gets around the end zone is Antonio Gates & the Evens that he gets a touchdown with Skybet looks generous especially as he's 2/9 with Paddy Power!

Selections:
Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles to be under 46.5 points at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints to beat Carolina Panthers with -2.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Lance Moore to score first touchdown at 12/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 8/5 (Bet365) Saints v Panthers
San Diego Chargers to beat Tennessee Titans with a -6.5 point handicap (General)
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (SkyBet)