NFL Week 8 - Hernandez & The Gronk can Waltz to Wembley Win

This week is British NFL fans best of the season other than the Super Bowl as the NFL bandwagon rolls into London town for the always sold out International Series game, it's a big one this year as last year's Super Bowl runners up the New England Patriots come up against the improving St Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. We're taking a look at the big one for UK NFL nuts plus another game to see where the betting value lies, after last week where 6 teams had bye weeks there is a fuller set of fixtures with just the usual 4 teams resting.

New England Patriots @ St Louis Rams

In this game the nominal home team (meaning they gave up a home fixture in the US) are the St Louis Rams but it might not feel that way when they get into the stadium as the New England Patriots are the best supported team in the UK by a margin & will have plenty cheering them on. The Patriots have had far more success than the Rams in recent years meaning they've experienced big games & they have the stars to get fans excited too, it's easy to see why they are strong favourites in this one.

(Rob Gronkowski can wow the Wembley crowd)

The Patriots are second favourites for the Super Bowl but only have a 4&3 record, with their three losses coming by a combined total of just 4 points with narrow losses against Arizona whilst they were really rolling, the always tough Ravens & then to the defensively sound Seahawks. Those losses clearly could have gone either way & we could now be looking at an unbeaten Patriots side, they're ranked first in total offensive yards & can hurt opposing defenses in so many ways with their running looking more impressive this year to complement Tom Brady's passing game. Stevan Ridley has been the lead rusher for the Pats & has been averaging a steady 4.4 yards plus has crossed the goalline for touchdowns on 4 occasions, the biggest dangers in & around the end zone though are the star tight end pair of Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez. Both Hernandez & 'the Gronk' are horrible matchups for opposing defenders as they are built like blockers yet have great hands for receiving meaning they can get extra yards after the catch regularly, Gronkowski has already gained 5 TDs on the season, with 2 coming last week, & he looks a fair price at 6/1 to score the first in this one.

St Louis have certainly improved from last year where they won just twice & they already have 3 victories, 2 coming against the Seahawks & Cardinals so you could argue they have a form line on New England. Danny Amendola was turning into a star for the Rams but is out for a while with injury & they've subsequently lost their last two (against the Packers last week was no disgrace) & their running game hasn't looked good enough to cover any flaws in the passing of Sam Bradford with Steven Jackson's production down on last year at just 3.8 yards a carry & one touchdown, it looks unlikely he'll improve here against a decent run defense. The Rams best chance of winning here is by putting pressure on Tom Brady & they do rank 5th in sacks this year, unfortunately for them the Patriots mish mash of a defense has actually done a pretty good job protecting Brady & he's mobile enough to make defenders miss anyway.

In our opinion New England are by far the more likely side to rise to the occasion & we can see them putting plenty of points on the board plus their sometimes suspect secondary won't be too troubled by the Rams' mediocre reciever corps. Rather than take the Patriots on the handicap we like the prices available for them to win by between 7-12 points at 4/1 & 13-18 at a huge 9/1 with bwin.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

The Chargers have the potential to be genuinely dangerous this year but have been hampered by the incredibly inconsistent play of their quarterback Philip Rivers who was at one time definitely amongst the elite  but hasn't reached those standards in the last season & a half, coming off a bye week to the Browns however could be just the tonic tp his passing woes.

(We're putting our trust in Philip Rivers against the Browns)

The Browns have been pretty lousy on the stats this year, ranking 26th defensively against the pass & 24th against the run & that has shown in their results with just one win in their 7 games. The Chargers meanwhile rank 2nd against the run, allowing just 71.2 yards on the ground per game & that should help limit the Browns' first round draft pick & ace young running back Trent Richardson who has become their major weapon leading in receptions also with 24. Defensive backs Eric Weddle & Quentin Jammer will also make it difficult for Brandon Weeden to pass, the Browns' quarterback had looked a little better in the last three weeks but the Chargers' defense are a step up from the Bengals & Colts. They will be hoping that Josh Gordon can come up with another monster touchdown reception as that has been their big weapon in recent weeks, he's averaging a scarcely believable 23.8 yards per catch!

The Chargers are coming off a bye week & that will be a big benefit as Rivers needed to work out some of the problems in his game & Ryan Mathews at running back continues to recover from injury, he should be getting to full strength now & is capable of a big game here. Rivers has good receioving targets in Malcolm Floyd & Antonio Gates to throw to plus Robert Meachem seems to be coming into the game more now as evidenced by his two touchdowns against his previous team the Saints. Overall we feel the Chargers have an awful lot more going for them than the less than mediocre Browns & even with the risk that is Rivers' quarterback play they look an outstanding bet giving up just 3 points on the handicap.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat St Louis Rams by 7-12 points at 4/1 (General) & 13-18 points at 9/1 (bwin)
Rob Gronkowski to score first touchdown in Patriots v Rams game at 6/1 (General)
San Diego Chargers to beat Cleveland Browns with -3 points on the handicap at Evens (Various)

NFL Week 4 - Patriots can Bounce Back against Buffalo Bills

We're now into week 4 of the NFL & there are only three teams left with unbeaten records, we're taking a look at one of those unbeaten sides in the Arizona Cardinals plus two other games as we look for more winning bets.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

In our first game we see two teams with mirror records as the Patriots won their first game before failing in their next two whilst AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills lost their opener before winning twice afterwards, we think they'll end up with identical 2&2 records after this one as the Patriots look to keep up their dominance of the Bills having won 16 of the last 17 games.



(Wes Welker remains the Patriots' top receiver - whatever the reports say)

 

The Bills' success this year has so far come down, pretty much, to the play of running back C.J. Spiller after stepping in for Fred Jackson after injury - he's gained 308 yards & 3 touchdowns as well as another 114 yards receiveing & another TD. Spiller is listed as questionable for this one though & Fred Jackson the same, the Bills were suggesting both could end up playing but it looks like neither will be at full fitness & that could prove costly. The Patriots are also a huge step up in opposition after facing the Chiefs & Browns & shouldn't be so easy to bully, the Bills were handed their asses in week one v the Jets & New England are a substantially better team than them. This should be a much easier assignment for the Patriots after travelling to the Ravens & nearly prevailing & previously running into 2012 surprise team the Arizona Cardinals.

New England have been much more balanced on offense this year, being happy to run the ball with Stevan Ridley & Danny Woodhead but their strength still lies in Tom Brady's passing & we think a monster game could be around the corner. There's been a lot of talk about how Wes Welker may be being phased out a little of the passing game & although Brandon Lloyd has had 6 more receptions Welker still leads the team with 251 receiving yards. Along with Lloyd & Gronkowski plus the emerging Julian Edelman, Welker offers Tom Brady some outstanding passing targets - Welker led the league in receiving yards last year & gained 9 TDs so 10/1 for him to score the first one in this game looks too big to be ignored. New England could win this one by some margin if they get in a rhythm & look to be being underestimated by the bookies after two losses against good sides, take the Patriots on the handicap with them giving up just 3.5 points to the Bills here.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Last week the San Diego Chargers were just awful against the Atlanta Falcons on both sides of the ball but there's good reason to believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be a better matchup at least for their offense here at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have already given up 99 points this season from their three games & they just haven't done well enough in terms of putting pressure on the opposition quarterback with just 5 sacks (4 from Justin Houston) & one interception, add to that they've gained just one fumble recovery & they just aren't winning the ball back often enough. Philip Rivers looked to be flustered when under pressure against Atlanta but should be better this week & the Chargers first choice running back Ryan Mathews should improve for his seasonal debut last week, offering them more offensive options.

(Ryan Mathews returning is a boost to San Diego's rushing attack..... as long as he doesn't fumble)

 

The Chiefs actually have the top ranked offense in terms of yards gained thanks to their excellent running game where they have a lot of strength in depth with Jamaal Charles already having racked up 323 yards & Shaun Draughn & Peyton Hillis behind him with 107 & 93 yards respectively. Quarterback Matt Cassel has been serviceable but has thrown 4 interceptions to only 3 TDs but he knows his job is to manage the football whilst the rushers play so well - Dwayne Bowe & Dexter McCluster remain his only targets of note. On the San Diego side they seem to have a lot of depth at receiver without any real standout player other than Malcolm Floyd who is their only player to reach double figure receptions, that does make it tough for opposition defenses as they can't just lock down one player to stop them.

The Chargers will be looking to bounce right back after only scoring 3 points last week so expect to see them come out & throw the ball, Kansas have given up 40, 34 & 24 points in their 3 games so San Diego should get some points on the board. The Chiefs' rushing game may also not be so effective here as the Chargers rank 4th on defense in that category & due to the favourable matchups we think San Diego should just about prevail so backing them to win by 1-6 points at 7/2 looks the best bet.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have been undeniably the biggest surprise team in the NFL this year having picked up three wins for a perfect start & gaining them against some good sides in the Patriots, Eagles & tough Seahawks - those first two games were close but they absolutely blew Philadelphia out of the water last Sunday & will look to do the same against Miami here.

(Kevin Kolb has the chance to lead the Cardinals to an unlikely 4&0 start to the season)

 

Miami have had a pretty tough start, playing three defensively sound teams, only winning against the Oakland Raiders in week two, they'll be disappointed with last week's result as they went down to divisional rivals the New York Jets in overtime & it could be hard to pick themselves up from that. We don't rate the Jets at all so Miami's loss last week doesn't give us confidence that they hold any hope in this one. The Cardinals' quarterback Kevin Kolb really just needs to manage games whilst his defense plays so outstandingly, he has an excellent receiver in Larry Fitzgerald & that combination could work well in this one. The Cardinals' first round draft pick Michael Floyd also saw his first reception (it went for a TD) last week & offers more options & they may just air it out a little more this week with Andre Roberts also proving a dependable target. The Cards also have excellent special teams & Patrick Peterson continues to dazzle when returning kicks, they'll regularly gain great field position making it much simpler for them to score.

The Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Tannehill & running back Reggie Bush have both surprised people with higher levels of performance than expected but they are both some way off elite & could both be shut down by the Arizona defense. Miami are pretty sound defensively but they'll need to be as the offense won't score too many points for them here, we can see Arizona gaining a lead & slowly crushing the life out of the Dolphins here,the offer of 8/11 for the Cardinals to be winning at half time & full time looks a great bet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills with a -3.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Paddy Power)
San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs by 1-6 points at 7/2 (General)
Arizona Cardinals HT/FT v Miami Dolphins at 8/11 (Ladbrokes & William Hill)

Ravens at Eagles - Lots of Squawking & not much Scoring

We were disappointed midweek as the Bears v Packers game was a bit of a damp squib with both teams offensive lines seeming to be made of paper - that will be a feature to watch for the rest of the year because if hey can't protect their passers neither side can be considered for the Super Bowl. We're back this weekend with picks from three games including a potential defensive showcase as the Ravens travel to the Eagles & we've some touchdown scorer bets that seem a little overpriced with certain bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

When we started looking at this weekend's games we'd already pinpointed the Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles as potentially the lowest scoring game of the week as two scary defenses come up against each other so we were surprised to see the total points line set at a large 46.5 points. Last year the Eagles had just 6 games go over the 46 points set here & the Ravens had just 4 of their 18 games (inc playoffs) go over, so from 34 games played just 10 went over & it seems amazing the line is so high.

(Coach Andy Reid will look to stop the Ravens' offense - cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be key)

Baltimore got a load of points on the board against Cincinnati on Monday night but the Bengals defense didn't seem to be able to adapt after setting up to stop Ray Rice running & made it too easy for Joe Flacco to use his arm strength & find targets down the field, it will almost certainly not be that easy to do the same against the Eagles. Philadelphia have two ace defensive ends in Trent Cole & Jason Babin who will ensure the pass rush against Flacco is strong & if he does get the ball away their corner backs Nnamdi Asomugha & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are amongst the best around & should give receivers Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin problems. Philadelphia weren't at their best last week with Michael Vick throwing 4 interceptions & they're arguably coming up against the best defense in the league with the Ravens, they won't have to deal with the threat of Terrell Suggs in the pass rush but Baltimore still looked stifling without him.

We can see both teams looking to their star running backs in Ray Rice & LeSean McCoy as they try to avoid turnovers & that should mean that plenty of time runs off the clock, this could end up coming down to a field goal & the under 46.5 points must be backed - the price for this should be closer to 1/2 than 10/11.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints travel up to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Pathers with both teams having suffered losses when favourites to win last week. The Saints were relatively well fancied for a Super Bowl push this year & the 2009 season champions were handed a boost when their players suspended for their part in the 'Bountygate' scandal were cleared to play, Carolina meanwhile were fancied by no one even with their impressive young quarterback Cam Newton.

New Orleans will undoubtedly be disappointed to have lost to the Redskins last week especially as they are usually unbeatable at home but Washington are an outfit on the up with a good defense, an emerging talent at running back in Alfred Morris & an exceptional talent in rookie passer Robert Griffin III. The Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay was more worrying as the Buccaneers lost their last 10 games last year & were rarely even getting close to the opposition yet they limited the Panthers to just two scores (touchdown & field goal) as Carolina went down 16-10. The Panthers are just a bit too one-dimensional as just about everything falls on Cam Newton's shoulders, as well as passing for 4,051 yards last year he also added another 706 on the ground & if he doesn't play well they have little chance.

(Lance Moore should score at some point against a weak Panthers defense)

We feel the Saints are being a little underrated here considering that Drew Brees threw for 346 yards last week & the Panthers ranked just 28th against the pass in 2011, he's got every opportunity to pick them apart here & put huge numbers on the board & taking New Orleans with a -2.5 point handicap looks a very sound bet. A favourite target of Drew Brees' is Lance Moore & he looks a reasonable price at 8/5 to score anytime (8 TDs each of last two years) & 12/1 to score the first touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

We were pleased to see the San Diego Chargers get their season off to a good start with a win away at Oakland, that was a tough fixture & they'll find it considerably easier when they host the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers were certainly helped by some atrocious special teams play from the Raiders but they were pretty resolute defensively & Philip Rivers looked accurate & efficient after a wobbly 2011 season, it helps that he was so well protected & was sacked just once last week.

(Philip Rivers & Antonio Gates can combine to winning effect for the Chargers)

Both of these teams seem to have problems running the ball with the Titans' star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson being wildly inconsistent & again last week he was ridiculously unproductive on the ground with just 4 yards from 11 carries, he does offer a threat in the receiving game though & his ability to break monster runs can't be ignored. The Chargers are really struggling without Ryan Mathews (injury) & he looks set to miss this one again, they only managed 32 rushing yards last week but we feel they have the better quarterback & set of receivers so it shouldn't hurt them so much here. We like the Titans' rookie receiver Kendall Wright but he might need a few more games to be seen to full effect & Nate Washington is capable of making huge plays, they will however struggle until Kenny Britt gets back to fitness, he looks like playing here but could be eased back in. The Chargers will use back Ronnie Brown for plenty of short passes & have an ace tight end in Antonio Gates plus Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal all as dependable receivers.

We think the Chargers' defense will give young quarterback Jake Locker plenty to worry about with Donald Butler coming after him & Eric Weddle waiting in the backfield to mop up any misplaced passes. The Chargers should take advantage of this being a home fixture & overcome a -6.5 point handicap to win by a touchdown or more. Rivers' most likely target when he gets around the end zone is Antonio Gates & the Evens that he gets a touchdown with Skybet looks generous especially as he's 2/9 with Paddy Power!

Selections:
Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles to be under 46.5 points at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints to beat Carolina Panthers with -2.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Lance Moore to score first touchdown at 12/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 8/5 (Bet365) Saints v Panthers
San Diego Chargers to beat Tennessee Titans with a -6.5 point handicap (General)
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (SkyBet)