NFL Week 16 - Colts can show Chiefs who's the Boss

Just two weeks of regular season games before the NFL playoffs & it looks like the cream has risen to the top in most divisions, we're looking at a couple of games where we think the odds make a wager worthwhile as we try to follow up the two odds against winners last Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City are on course to end up with the worst record in the league - thus ending up with the first pick in the draft whilst Indianapolis can seal a playoff spot with a win here & that should tell you all you need to know about the teams' motivation & the most likely winners here.

(T.Y. Hilton looks overpriced to score the first touchdown in the Colts v Chiefs game)

The Colts finished last in 2011, with star passer Peyton Manning injured, & that allowed them to pick up incredible rookie passer Andrew Luck who has helped guide them to a 9&5 record & the brink of the playoffs, they couldn't have asked for a better game to clinch a post season berth than this one as the Chiefs have taken beatings week in & week out. The Colts' defense is pretty ordinary ranking 21st against the pass & 23rd against the run but Kansas have the lowest average points scored per game in the league at just 13.9 & they're a one dimensional outfit that rely heavily on tailback Jamaal Charles as their quarterback play is so weak. With the knowledge that Kansas are unlikely to score too often the Colts offense will feel pretty confident & the combination of Luck passing to Reggie Wayne will be seen often as they've struck up a great partnership. The other success story for the Colts has been the play of rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton & he's bagged himself 6 touchdowns on the year, Hilton looks too big at 10/1 to get the first TD - he's also on kick & punt returns giving us extra scoring chances. Indy have a few injury niggles but all their key players look set to start & we think they'll be tough to stop

 The Chiefs didn't even get a single point against the pretty bad themselves Raiders last week as they went down 15-0 to 5 Janikowski field goals, it was embarrassing stuff & their defense will feel deflated after not allowing Oakland to score a TD & still losing badly. There's no let up with the dire quarterback play with Brady Quinn only having thrown two scores on the season & they were against a porous Carolina defense. Offensively everything rests on Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs & he's been great with 1,230 rushing yards but even he struggled last week getting just 10 yards total on 9 carries & he must be tiring, it looks a tough ask for them to even put up a bold display in their last home game of the year & even their fans mightn't want to see them win if it means they're deprived of the first draft pick!

The Colts will be desperate to get the job done this week as in their final regular season game they host the Texans & that looks a very tough one indeed unless they've already got the number one spot. With the Chiefs having lost 10 of their 14 games by more than 7 points the handicap of -6.5 points for Indianapolis looks a great bet & should be snapped up without hesitation.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Miami are technically still in the hunt for a wildcard playoff place with the potential to get to an even 8&8 record with two wins but it seems highly unlikely they'll make it & the Bills are already eliminated with a 5&9 losing record. With pretty ordinary quarterback play for both teams this looks like it might be tight & trappy encounter with lots of rushing plays, it might not be the most important game of all time but we think there's money to be made as a gambling event.

(Mario Williams is starting to prove his worth at defensive end for the Bills)

Buffalo took a humiliating beating last week to Seattle but the Seahawks seem to have turned on the afterburners in their last few outings (becoming Super Bowl dark horses in the process) & that may not have been quite as dreadful a result as it looked for the Bills. The Buffalo defense had started to perform closer to the level it should be at with the individuals in it & the upgrades made before the season started, before the Seahawks game they'd restricted opponents to 20 or less points for 4 games in a row. On offense they rank up in 6th for rushing yards & C.J. Spiller continues to pick up the yards in his breakout season but he won't find it easy against the Dolphins' defense that rank 6th in points given up & 8th against the run.

Miami have struggled for points all season & we don't see it improving here even though Buffalo have been bad against the run over the year, Reggie Bush is not a dependable running back & he'll be getting a heavy workload with Daniel Thomas now out for the remainder of the season. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill did well against Jacksonville but they're not a good side & his passer rating of 75.9 is not very good at all. Brian Hartline & Davone Bess are targeted way more than his other receivers & that's problematic as Bess is out & Hartline still questionable for the game, without them it 'll be tough for them to move the ball easily down the field. They're pretty hot defensively & Karlos Dansby continues to be monstrous at the linebacker position & Reshad Jones has been pretty nifty at safety too, that tough defense always gives them a chance as they look to shut down the opposition & gain good field position. With decent defenses, rushing games meaning the clock will tick & overall questionable quarterbacks we can see this being a low scoring affair so back under 41.5 total points at Evens with Coral.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -6.5 point handicap at 10/11 (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill)
T.Y. Hilton to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet & William Hill)
Under 41.5 points in Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins at Evens (Coral)

NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 12 - Buffalo out of Luck at Colts

We've already had 3 games this week as Thursday saw the traditional Thanksgiving games & the Texans continued to win & now stand at 10&1 for the season & the Patriots won convincingly too to keep up the chase in the AFC. We're looking at a couple of games that could prove crucial in the chase for the playoffs & there are some nice bets to be had as we try to keep the winners coming!

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

This game looks like a potential cracker with 5 of the Bills games totaling over 50 points this season & here they come up against the number one overall draft pick in the Colts' outstanding young quarterback Andrew Luck.

(Vick Ballard (taking the hand-off) could have a huge game running the ball)

The Bills have been embarrassingly bad on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 ranking 26th in total defense & have given up the 3rd most points per game (29.9 - only the Raiders & Titans are worse) & they've been particularly awful against stopping the run. What makes Buffalo's defensive malaise worse is that they invested heavily during the off season bringing in Mario Williams as their marquee signing from the Texans yet the Bills have got worse & Houston seem just as good without Williams. Buffalo's weakness against the run could bite them here even though you'd think of the Colts as a passing team, Andrew Luck is happy to take off & has already run in 5 TDs himself plus we reckon Vick Ballard could rack up the rushing yards in this one too.

Buffalo would maybe be more competitive if their offense was a little more explosive but it's been merely average this season even with some excellent running performances from the emerging C.J. Spiller - both Spiller & fellow running back Fred Jackson have slightly injury concerns here (Knee & concussion respectively). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is only ordinary & his stats this season look slightly skewed thanks to facing some pretty average teams at times, their 4 wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona & Miami...

The Colts have also beaten some poor sides but have added the notable scalps of the Minnesota Vikings & Green Bay Packers too & have only lost at home once from 5 games so far, there is a real sense of optimisim in Indianapolis & they'll feel they can bounce back after being slapped down by the Patriots last week. The Colts rank an impressive 5th in offensive yards gained per game & Luck has passed for 300+ yards in 5 out of 10 games which are excellent numbers for a rookie. Luck has developed a great relationship with key receiver Reggie Wayne & the spectacular catch maker already has 1,003 receiving yards - he'll be a favourite target here.With home field advantage (& the fact we haven't read too much into the blowout loss against New England) we're confident that the Colts can easily cover the -3 point handicap against a brittle Buffalo side.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

This game between two of the big name sides in the NFL is one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams needing to win this one to keep up the pace in their tight divisions, the Giants have stumbled in their last couple & are looking to bounce back after their bye week whilst the Packers look to keep rolling after 5 straight wins.

(Touchdown! Jordy Nelson! At least we hope that's the commentary)

There are similarities in both teams as they are largely reliant on the performances of their quarterbacks & their defenses creating turnovers & it has proven a successful strategy as they have taken the last two Super Bowls. Of course relying so heavily on your passer means that if he has a bad game then you invariably lose & that has been the Giants' problem with Eli Manning's form dipping markedly in their last 4 games after a great start to the season & they lost to the Steelers & Bengals after receiving scares from the Redskins & Cowboys. Manning is a top quarterback & a real big game player (as two Super Bowls prove) but we'd always take Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers if we had to pick between the two, he's outstanding  leads the league with a passer rating of 107.3 whilst Manning is down at a mediocre 81.8.

Green Bay are the only team to have beaten the Houston Texans this year & also prevailed against Chicago (only other loss was to Houston) which shows they are right up there in terms of the best teams this season & they've come back well after shock, close losses to Seattle & Indianapolis. The Packers could certainly do wit improving their offensive line which has given up 32 sacks & is a big reason their running game is relatively ineffective, they're fortunate that Rodgers doesn't panic under pressure & their defensive pass rush is a weaon on the other side with 33 sacks of their own. Green Bay's defense will be missing star linebacker Clay Matthews but they'll still fancy they can get pressure on Eli Manning & if they do his slump could continue. Key for the Packers is that they limit star receiver Victor Cruz as much as possible, he's Manning's favourite target by far whereas Rodgers has a wide range of targets to pick from though Jordy Nelson may be the man to concentrate on now he's fit again, he's a big price at 8/1 to bag the first touchdown.

New York do have the home advantage but they will need to have worked on Eli Manning's game plenty in their bye week because he's looking unfocused at times & we would much rather be with the Packers in this one with a handy 3 point handicap lead.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Buffalo Bills with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Green Bay Packers to beat New York Giants with +3 points on the handicap at 5/6 (General)
Jordy Nelson to score first touchdown in Packers @ Giants game at 8/1 (Various)

NFL Week 9 - Forte & Foster can Feast on awful rushing defenses

After an unpredictable start the NFL season is starting to settle down & some of the bigger boys are exerting control over their respective divisions & in their games too, we're siding with some of the potential Super Bowl contenders this week in favourable match-ups.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans

We tipped up the Bears to gain 10 or more regular season wins in our season preview & they have made the most of the weak opponents they've faced to post a 6&1 record so far, they come up against the Tennessee Titans here who are 3&5 & just horrible on the defensive side of the football.

(Matt Forte looks tailor-made for this game against the Titans)

This is basically a great match-up for the Bears as the Titans are severely limited when their running back Chris Johnson doesn't manage to break off big runs  it seems unlikely he'll thrive in this one as the Bears rank 1st in rushing yards given up. The Titans had given their starting quarterback job to youngster Jake Locker but have had to revert to Plan B  stick 37 year old veteran Matt Hasselbeck back in after Locker was injured, Hasselbaeck has been good in the past but he's merely serviceable now & he'll ave a tough time escaping Julius Peppers & Harry Melton who've combined for 10.5 sacks for the Bears so far this year.

The Titans rank 29th overall in both passing & rushing yards given up & the Bears' star offensive player Matt Forte looks like having a huge game as he's so proficient at running & also receiving out of the backfield. Chicago struggled for a long time against Carolina last week but rallied impressively with a last minute field goal after trailing 19-7 going into the 4th quarter, they will be determined to show their true colours here - the Panthers are an unpredictable side anyway so we're not too concerned with the narrow victory. We think the Bears weakness at quarterback (Jay Cutler is way off being elite) limit their chances for a Super Bowl win this year but they should have more than enough to cover the -3.5 point handicap here, all but one of their wins have been by more than that & all 5 of Tennessee's losses have also been by more than 3 points.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

The Texans bounced back after unimpressive displays against the Jets & Packers to absolutely thrash the Baltimore Ravens 43-13 before heading off for their bye week & they get a present delivered to their doorstep here as the Buffalo Bills come to town for a game they look highly unsuited for. The Texans have only tasted defeat once this year & they showed they didn't like it in their next game so the Bills face an uphill struggle to get anything out of this one.

(Arian Foster could be saying thank you a lot against the Bills' defense)

The Texans have probably the best running back around in Arian Foster & they rank 6th overall in the league so far in terms of rushing yards per game but that ranking looks likely to improve after this one as the Bills cannot stop teams from running all over them. The Bills are giving up a huge 176.9 yards rushing per game & the moves they made in the Summer (including for the Texans' star defensive end Mario Williams) have not borne the rewards they hoped for. The Bills' main offensive weapons themselves are their running back duo of Fred Jackson & C.J.Spiller, with Spiller exploding into action when given the chance this year, the problem here is that they run into the Texans' defense which ranks 3rd against the run limiting their chances of impressing here.

The Bills hopes in this one surely come down to whether passer Ryan Fitzpatrick can have a stormer & to give him credit he's thrown for a lot of TDs this year (15) although they don't tend to go to the air very often which is understandable with their mediocre receivers. As well as the Bill's offensive line have looked after Fitzpatrick so far it will be a huge test to stop JJ Watt getting to him as the young Houston defender has been in unbelievable form this year with 9.5 sacks & plenty of pass blocks too. The Texans are rightly noted for their running game but they have weapons when passing too with tight end Owen Daniels coming to the fore recently & two time NFL receiving yards leader Andre Johnson has looked better in his past two games with decent yardage & receptions after not getting targeted too often (or dropping passes when he was) in weeks 2-5. Matt Schaub is an excellent decision maker at the quarterback position & he's only thrown 4 interceptions in 2012 so it looks hard for the Bills to make up for the yards they'll give up defensively by creating turnovers. Houston have already won 4 games this year by 20 or more points so the -10 points they give up in this one doesn't look an insurmountable task, back them to do it as they come off a bye week nice & fresh against a Bills team there for the taking.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to beat Tennessee Titans with -3.5 point handicap at Evens (Skybet)
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills with -10 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

NFL Week 7 - Raiders of the Lost Jags

It was a pretty tough week for NFL bettors in week 6 as 10 underdog sides won out & we didn't far at all well here either with Indianapolis looking as bad as they did last year up against the Jets & Cincinnati underperforming in Cleveland. We'll have another got though & try to bring some of our Saturday (3 form 3 fottball/soccer picks) form to the game as we take a look at a couple of games featuring this year's lesser lights.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders

In the game at the O.co Coliseum in Oakland the Raiders host the Jaguars in a battle of teams with just one win each from 5 games, clearly neither side is great but there are reasons to believe the home side Raiders are superior to the Jags.

(Darrius Heyward-Bey should be fit & ready to take the Jags apart)

Jacksonville are ranking stone last in offensive yards (241.2) & points (13) per game & they just don't have the players at skill positions to be able to pass the ball at all effectively, in the modern day, high scoring, passing NFL they are sorely lacking even with one of the best running backs around in Maurice Jones-Drew. At quarterback they have Blaine Gabbert who has a laughable career passer rating of just 67.5 & has a league low 5.5 yards per pass this year, he's got a promising rookie in Justin Blackmon to pass to plus we like Laurent Robinson but they are hardly a great set of receivers plus he just doesn't have the skills regardless of the targets. In 2011 the Jags' saving grace was that they were pretty tough defensively (ranking 6th overall) but that isn't the case this year as they rank a lowly 29th & have been giving up 163 yards per game on the ground, that isn't a good sign as they come up against one of the better backs around in Darren McFadden.

Oakland nearly came up with a huge result last week as they ended up only losing by 3 points against the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons & that bodes well in this game if they can take the momentum gained in the Atlanta Dome & use it in front of their own fans. The Raiders have actually been pretty poor at running the ball this year thanks to their poor defensive blocking meaning that Darren McFadden gets hit earlier in his runs than any other back, coming up against the Jaguars & their poor run defense might be just the cure for that problem though. Quarterback Carson Palmer has been having a pretty solid year & is averaging 286.5 yards through the air with his pretty good wide receiver corps that has been bolstered by Derek Hagan who rejoined after being with Oakland for the first part of last season. Tight end Brandon Myers has stepped up all of a sudden & leads the team in receiving yards with 290, his previous best for a whole season was just 151 yards so he's added another option, they've also got Denarius Moore & Darrius Heyward-Bey (who's been struggling with injury but should be fully fit here) & their options far outweigh Jacksonville's.

Oakland are excellent on special teams & can rely on Sebastian Janikowski to kick field goals from anywhere inside of 65 yards, even though they're 1&5 they should have too much for Jacksonville, however rather than take the handicap of -6 points we far prefer the half time/full time bet of Oakland/Oakland at odds of 21/20, they can control the game from beginning to end.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

(The Buffalo Bills' C.J. Spiller could be in for another big day running the football)

The Titans & Bills are two sides with plenty of problems yet the Bills somehow find themselves with a .500 record thanks to a forgiving schedule that has seen them beat the lowly Browns & Chiefs plus run into the Cardinals just as they faced a quarterback crisis. Tennesee have been stuffed out of sight 4 times but come up with narrow 3 point wins against Detroit (in overtime) & Pittsburgh (last week when the Steelers were inconvenienced by being the away side for the Thursday night game). It hardly makes this game an inspiring one but there is a good bet to be had here.

The total points line for this game is set at 46.5 & from their 12 games combined these two sides have seen 47 or more points on 9 of those 12 occasions. The Titans are giving up a league worst average of 34 points per game & the Bills are giving up the second most with 32 per game, with two such poor defenses this is set to be a high scoring free for all. The Bills just can't stop the run & although the Titans are averaging a paltry 70.2 yards rushing per game this could be just the tonic for their star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson who has struggled to replicate his incredible form from 2 & 3 seasons ago. The Bills have one of the league's most potent rushing attacks with Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller always ready to unload on opposition defenses & they should see plenty of joy against the Titans, if they get into the red zone they should be able to push ahead & convert for touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. Neither side is great but Buffalo are deserving favourites, we still like the over 46.5 total points bet as the best value option here & odds of 5/6 for C.J. Spiller to score a TD at anytime also look on the big side - he's got touchdowns in 4 of his 6 games & Tennessee struggle to stop anything.

Selections:
Oakland Raiders to beat Jacksonville Jaguars Half time/Full time at 21/20 (BlueSquare & 888Sport)
Over 46.5 points in Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills game at 10/11 (General)
C.J. Spiller to score a touchdown at anytime at 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

NFL Week 4 - Patriots can Bounce Back against Buffalo Bills

We're now into week 4 of the NFL & there are only three teams left with unbeaten records, we're taking a look at one of those unbeaten sides in the Arizona Cardinals plus two other games as we look for more winning bets.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

In our first game we see two teams with mirror records as the Patriots won their first game before failing in their next two whilst AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills lost their opener before winning twice afterwards, we think they'll end up with identical 2&2 records after this one as the Patriots look to keep up their dominance of the Bills having won 16 of the last 17 games.



(Wes Welker remains the Patriots' top receiver - whatever the reports say)

 

The Bills' success this year has so far come down, pretty much, to the play of running back C.J. Spiller after stepping in for Fred Jackson after injury - he's gained 308 yards & 3 touchdowns as well as another 114 yards receiveing & another TD. Spiller is listed as questionable for this one though & Fred Jackson the same, the Bills were suggesting both could end up playing but it looks like neither will be at full fitness & that could prove costly. The Patriots are also a huge step up in opposition after facing the Chiefs & Browns & shouldn't be so easy to bully, the Bills were handed their asses in week one v the Jets & New England are a substantially better team than them. This should be a much easier assignment for the Patriots after travelling to the Ravens & nearly prevailing & previously running into 2012 surprise team the Arizona Cardinals.

New England have been much more balanced on offense this year, being happy to run the ball with Stevan Ridley & Danny Woodhead but their strength still lies in Tom Brady's passing & we think a monster game could be around the corner. There's been a lot of talk about how Wes Welker may be being phased out a little of the passing game & although Brandon Lloyd has had 6 more receptions Welker still leads the team with 251 receiving yards. Along with Lloyd & Gronkowski plus the emerging Julian Edelman, Welker offers Tom Brady some outstanding passing targets - Welker led the league in receiving yards last year & gained 9 TDs so 10/1 for him to score the first one in this game looks too big to be ignored. New England could win this one by some margin if they get in a rhythm & look to be being underestimated by the bookies after two losses against good sides, take the Patriots on the handicap with them giving up just 3.5 points to the Bills here.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Last week the San Diego Chargers were just awful against the Atlanta Falcons on both sides of the ball but there's good reason to believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be a better matchup at least for their offense here at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have already given up 99 points this season from their three games & they just haven't done well enough in terms of putting pressure on the opposition quarterback with just 5 sacks (4 from Justin Houston) & one interception, add to that they've gained just one fumble recovery & they just aren't winning the ball back often enough. Philip Rivers looked to be flustered when under pressure against Atlanta but should be better this week & the Chargers first choice running back Ryan Mathews should improve for his seasonal debut last week, offering them more offensive options.

(Ryan Mathews returning is a boost to San Diego's rushing attack..... as long as he doesn't fumble)

 

The Chiefs actually have the top ranked offense in terms of yards gained thanks to their excellent running game where they have a lot of strength in depth with Jamaal Charles already having racked up 323 yards & Shaun Draughn & Peyton Hillis behind him with 107 & 93 yards respectively. Quarterback Matt Cassel has been serviceable but has thrown 4 interceptions to only 3 TDs but he knows his job is to manage the football whilst the rushers play so well - Dwayne Bowe & Dexter McCluster remain his only targets of note. On the San Diego side they seem to have a lot of depth at receiver without any real standout player other than Malcolm Floyd who is their only player to reach double figure receptions, that does make it tough for opposition defenses as they can't just lock down one player to stop them.

The Chargers will be looking to bounce right back after only scoring 3 points last week so expect to see them come out & throw the ball, Kansas have given up 40, 34 & 24 points in their 3 games so San Diego should get some points on the board. The Chiefs' rushing game may also not be so effective here as the Chargers rank 4th on defense in that category & due to the favourable matchups we think San Diego should just about prevail so backing them to win by 1-6 points at 7/2 looks the best bet.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have been undeniably the biggest surprise team in the NFL this year having picked up three wins for a perfect start & gaining them against some good sides in the Patriots, Eagles & tough Seahawks - those first two games were close but they absolutely blew Philadelphia out of the water last Sunday & will look to do the same against Miami here.

(Kevin Kolb has the chance to lead the Cardinals to an unlikely 4&0 start to the season)

 

Miami have had a pretty tough start, playing three defensively sound teams, only winning against the Oakland Raiders in week two, they'll be disappointed with last week's result as they went down to divisional rivals the New York Jets in overtime & it could be hard to pick themselves up from that. We don't rate the Jets at all so Miami's loss last week doesn't give us confidence that they hold any hope in this one. The Cardinals' quarterback Kevin Kolb really just needs to manage games whilst his defense plays so outstandingly, he has an excellent receiver in Larry Fitzgerald & that combination could work well in this one. The Cardinals' first round draft pick Michael Floyd also saw his first reception (it went for a TD) last week & offers more options & they may just air it out a little more this week with Andre Roberts also proving a dependable target. The Cards also have excellent special teams & Patrick Peterson continues to dazzle when returning kicks, they'll regularly gain great field position making it much simpler for them to score.

The Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Tannehill & running back Reggie Bush have both surprised people with higher levels of performance than expected but they are both some way off elite & could both be shut down by the Arizona defense. Miami are pretty sound defensively but they'll need to be as the offense won't score too many points for them here, we can see Arizona gaining a lead & slowly crushing the life out of the Dolphins here,the offer of 8/11 for the Cardinals to be winning at half time & full time looks a great bet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills with a -3.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Paddy Power)
San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs by 1-6 points at 7/2 (General)
Arizona Cardinals HT/FT v Miami Dolphins at 8/11 (Ladbrokes & William Hill)