Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
This game looks like a potential cracker with 5 of the Bills games totaling over 50 points this season & here they come up against the number one overall draft pick in the Colts' outstanding young quarterback Andrew Luck.
(Vick Ballard (taking the hand-off) could have a huge game running the ball)
The Bills have been embarrassingly bad on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 ranking 26th in total defense & have given up the 3rd most points per game (29.9 - only the Raiders & Titans are worse) & they've been particularly awful against stopping the run. What makes Buffalo's defensive malaise worse is that they invested heavily during the off season bringing in Mario Williams as their marquee signing from the Texans yet the Bills have got worse & Houston seem just as good without Williams. Buffalo's weakness against the run could bite them here even though you'd think of the Colts as a passing team, Andrew Luck is happy to take off & has already run in 5 TDs himself plus we reckon Vick Ballard could rack up the rushing yards in this one too.
Buffalo would maybe be more competitive if their offense was a little more explosive but it's been merely average this season even with some excellent running performances from the emerging C.J. Spiller - both Spiller & fellow running back Fred Jackson have slightly injury concerns here (Knee & concussion respectively). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is only ordinary & his stats this season look slightly skewed thanks to facing some pretty average teams at times, their 4 wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona & Miami...
The Colts have also beaten some poor sides but have added the notable scalps of the Minnesota Vikings & Green Bay Packers too & have only lost at home once from 5 games so far, there is a real sense of optimisim in Indianapolis & they'll feel they can bounce back after being slapped down by the Patriots last week. The Colts rank an impressive 5th in offensive yards gained per game & Luck has passed for 300+ yards in 5 out of 10 games which are excellent numbers for a rookie. Luck has developed a great relationship with key receiver Reggie Wayne & the spectacular catch maker already has 1,003 receiving yards - he'll be a favourite target here.With home field advantage (& the fact we haven't read too much into the blowout loss against New England) we're confident that the Colts can easily cover the -3 point handicap against a brittle Buffalo side.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
This game between two of the big name sides in the NFL is one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams needing to win this one to keep up the pace in their tight divisions, the Giants have stumbled in their last couple & are looking to bounce back after their bye week whilst the Packers look to keep rolling after 5 straight wins.
(Touchdown! Jordy Nelson! At least we hope that's the commentary)
There are similarities in both teams as they are largely reliant on the performances of their quarterbacks & their defenses creating turnovers & it has proven a successful strategy as they have taken the last two Super Bowls. Of course relying so heavily on your passer means that if he has a bad game then you invariably lose & that has been the Giants' problem with Eli Manning's form dipping markedly in their last 4 games after a great start to the season & they lost to the Steelers & Bengals after receiving scares from the Redskins & Cowboys. Manning is a top quarterback & a real big game player (as two Super Bowls prove) but we'd always take Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers if we had to pick between the two, he's outstanding leads the league with a passer rating of 107.3 whilst Manning is down at a mediocre 81.8.
Green Bay are the only team to have beaten the Houston Texans this year & also prevailed against Chicago (only other loss was to Houston) which shows they are right up there in terms of the best teams this season & they've come back well after shock, close losses to Seattle & Indianapolis. The Packers could certainly do wit improving their offensive line which has given up 32 sacks & is a big reason their running game is relatively ineffective, they're fortunate that Rodgers doesn't panic under pressure & their defensive pass rush is a weaon on the other side with 33 sacks of their own. Green Bay's defense will be missing star linebacker Clay Matthews but they'll still fancy they can get pressure on Eli Manning & if they do his slump could continue. Key for the Packers is that they limit star receiver Victor Cruz as much as possible, he's Manning's favourite target by far whereas Rodgers has a wide range of targets to pick from though Jordy Nelson may be the man to concentrate on now he's fit again, he's a big price at 8/1 to bag the first touchdown.
New York do have the home advantage but they will need to have worked on Eli Manning's game plenty in their bye week because he's looking unfocused at times & we would much rather be with the Packers in this one with a handy 3 point handicap lead.
Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Buffalo Bills with -3 point handicap at 21/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Green Bay Packers to beat New York Giants with +3 points on the handicap at 5/6 (General)
Jordy Nelson to score first touchdown in Packers @ Giants game at 8/1 (Various)
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